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Eastern Notes: Karlsson, Nash, Lindblom, Rosen

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Did Erik Karlsson play his last game as a member of the Ottawa Senators?

Just a few weeks ago, there was no way Karlsson would be traded. Just a few days ago, there was nothing more than a rumor that general manager Pierre Dorion might consider a trade if he was blown away. Now suddenly, it seems like everyone is in on a potential trade and there is a good chance Karlsson will be dealt.

The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that while he believes there is a better chance than not that Karlsson will remain with the Senators after the trade deadline, it seems that teams are lining up to make offers. The scribe writes that three teams, in particular, have all been mentioned as trade partners for Karlsson, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, Vegas Golden Knights and the Nashville Predators. Tampa Bay would love to add Karlsson to their stable of defensemen and have a 1-2 combination of Victor Hedman and Karlsson. Vegas wouldn’t mind acquiring the star and making him the face of their franchise and would be easily able to take the contract of Ryan off Ottawa’s hands as well.

The San Jose Sharks have also been mentioned as having checked in with Ottawa about Karlsson and also have the cap room to take on Ryan, but seem an unlikely option.

All three clubs would like to have Karlsson for the next two postseasons, but Garrioch writes that unless the Senators are blown away by an offer, the team should hold onto the star defenseman and move him before the draft. That’s the more likely time the team will see the best offers. The Senators have made it clear to anyone calling that they are looking for about five to six pieces to help the team both immediately and in the future.

  • Pierre LeBrun tweets that the New York Rangers that trade talks surrounding winger Rick Nash are progressing. While there is no mention of what teams are attempting to make a deal for the veteran, LeBrun writes the Rangers got an offer they are considering, but then adds that other teams remain in the mix. A deal within the next 24 hours is not out of the question. Elliotte Friedman just added that the Boston Bruins may be the leading candidate in the Nash sweepstakes.
  • Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that for Philadelphia Flyers prospect forward Oskar Lindblom to remain with the Flyers once Wayne Simmonds returns from injury, he would have to knock one player off one of the top three lines. Lindblom, who had 16 goals with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL this year has played in just two games since being recalled after Simmonds went down. While he hasn’t put up any points yet, O’Connor writes that Lindblom would need to show that he can produce at the NHL level better than either Michael Raffl or Jordan Weal. Both could easily move to the fourth line to make room for him. The question is whether he can produce.
  • Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that one asset the Toronto Maple Leafs have is their AHL franchise, the Toronto Marlies, which seems to have one of the deepest rosters in the league. While that is great, the team has too many players and once playoff time rolls around, the Marlies will have some real issues. If the Maple Leafs are eliminated from the playoffs before the Marlies are, the Maple Leafs will also likely send some players down, causing an even bigger roster jam. Wheeler writes the Maple Leafs should consider moving some of their AHL players such as defenseman Calle Rosen to lighten their load, but some of those pieces could also be used to acquire another piece for the Maple Leafs.

Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue

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The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.

Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews’ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.

Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.

Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

World Championships: Austria, South Korea Promoted

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Both Austria and South Korea have been promoted to Division 1 play for next year’s World Championships. After a tight and grueling tournament, Korea edged out the Ukraine in a shootout to take the final spot. South Korea will host the 2018 Olympics in PyeongChang, and regardless of NHL involvement, the spotlight will be on their country to make a mark in the hockey world. They apparently will not be outclassed too mightily, as they have steeply improved under the direction of former NHLers Jim Paek and Richard Park. As recently as 2009, Korea was in Division II and they had consistently been ranked lower than 30th in terms of world ranking.

Austria is less of a surprise, as they had been relegated only in 2015. The country boasts successful NHL players such as Michael Grabner, Thomas Vanek, and Michael Raffl. They obliterated Poland in their final game 11-0 to win the tournament, proving definitively that they belong at the next level. The losing-est country in each group at the Worlds will face relegation and take their places in Division 1A. A country being able to compete with the top talent in the world on international hockey’s biggest stage is a huge boost in visibility for prospects and increases viability for its players in terms of acquiring a sizable pro contract.

The major tournament will begin on May 5 and conclude on May 21. As always, Canada and the United States are at a bit of a disadvantage as NHLers tend to opt out of the competition following a grueling 82 games and potential playoff runs. Additionally, some of the best players will still be playing as the Stanley Cup Playoffs continue to grind along. Russia, Sweden, and Finland are heavy contenders, and Switzerland seemingly improves every year. The IIHF tournament is a wonderful time to view lesser known adult stars from overseas, and an impressive performance can mean lucrative playing opportunities. The games will be played in Paris, France and Cologne, Germany.

Snapshots: Benson, Connauton, Burrows, Flyers, Olympics

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The Edmonton Oilers have put pen to paper with one of their 2016 draft picks as they announced that they have inked left winger Tyler Benson to a three year, entry level contract.  Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

Benson was Edmonton’s second round pick (32nd overall) back in June.  The Edmonton native had long been touted as a first rounder but an injury-plagued 2015-16 season (he played in just 30 games) certainly didn’t help his draft stock.

This season, Benson leads his junior team, the WHL’s Vancouver Giants, in scoring with 40 points (10-30-40) in 31 games.  As has been the case with several young prospects who have signed recently, unless Benson plays in ten or more games with the Oilers this season, his contract will actually ‘slide’ a year with the team receiving a small reduction in his salary cap charge.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Per a team release, the Arizona Coyotes have assigned defenseman Kevin Connauton to their AHL affiliate in Tucson on a conditioning assignment. Connauton has played just twice this month and only nine times this season as he has predominantly been the seventh defenseman for Arizona.
  • Canucks left winger Alex Burrows will play in his 800th game tonight against Anaheim. All of those games have come in a Vancouver uniform and once he suits up, he’ll be only the sixth player in franchise history to play in 800 games for the Canucks.  The 35 year old has been an effective bottom six player this season with 14 points (6-8-14) in 32 games and has 378 points (190-188-378) through his first 799 contests.
  • The Flyers will make rookie winger Travis Konecny a healthy scratch tonight, notes Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. The timing is a little strange as Konecny is coming off a two assist game but head coach Dave Hakstol wants to see his play improve without the puck on his stick.  Left winger Michael Raffl will return to the lineup after missing Wednesday’s game with a lower body injury and slot in on the top line while defenseman Radko Gudas is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
  • The NHL has drafted two versions of the 2017-18 schedule with the uncertainty surrounding their participation in the 2018 Winter Olympics, notes Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston (Twitter links).  As a result, the league is no longer imposing any deadline on the decision regarding whether they will or won’t be participating.  However, the IOC is still hoping for a decision by January 15th.

Metro Division Injury Updates: Faulk, Lundqvist, Raffl, Couturier

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With teams resuming their normal practice and game-day routines after the three-day holiday break, news and updates regarding several Metro Division players have been released today. Here’s a quick roundup:

  • Justin Faulk, Carolina’s #1 defenseman, is week-to-week with a lower-body injury evidently suffered in the latter half of the team’s recent game against Boston, according to Michael Smith, who covers the team for the Hurricane’s official NHL.com website. Faulk is averaging better than 23 minutes-per-game for Carolina and has tallied seven goals and 16 points in 30 games this season. He currently leads the team’s blue line corps in scoring and is second behind Jaccob Slavin in ice time.
  • The New York Rangers have recalled goalie Brandon Halverson from Hartford to backup Antti Raanta tonight as the Rangers host the Ottawa Senators at MSG, according to this tweet from the team’s official Twitter account. New York’s starter, Henrik Lundqvist is battling the flu and has been ruled out for the game. Though unlikely, should Halverson see any action tonight, it would qualify as the 20-year-old netminder’s NHL debut.
  • Sam Carchidi of Philly.com has several developments after the Flyers practiced today. With Michael Raffl expected to miss up to two weeks with an upper-body injury suffered against New Jersey last Thursday night, rookie winger Taylor Leier is likely to fill in on the team’s top line. Leier scored his first NHL goal on December 17th and has two points in eight games this season.
  • Meanwhile, Flyers GM Ron Hextall is hopeful that center Sean Couturier will be back in the lineup for the first time since November 22nd. Couturier has missed the last 16 games with a knee injury.
  • Michal Neuvirth is nearing a return to the team after practicing with the team today, though he is not expected to play during the Flyers upcoming three-game road trip. Neuvirth has not played for Philadelphia since November 12th because of a knee injury. In his absence, Anthony Stolarz has given the Flyers two quality starts, winning both and posting a GAA of 1.84 and a Save % of 0.932.

Flyers Notes: Del Zotto, Defense, Raffl

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The start to this season hasn’t been a great one for Flyers defenseman Michael Del Zotto.  He suffered a knee injury in training camp that caused him to miss the first month of the season and since then, he has been a healthy scratch on several occasions with head coach Dave Hakstol looking for a better compete level.  Despite that, he still feels good about his play, writes Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post.

Through 19 games this season, the 26 year old has four goals and five assists which is pretty good production for a blueliner.  However, his ice time has been scaled back significantly as he is playing 18 minutes a night compared to 23:25 last season.

Being sat down while having your minutes cut is hardly a desirable spot for anyone to be in but the timing is particularly poor for Del Zotto, a pending unrestricted free agent in a market that isn’t all that strong when it comes to defensemen.  He told Isaac that his UFA status isn’t in his mind at the moment:

“I know I can contribute offensively and I’ve proven over the last couple of years that I can be a No. 1 defender and I have the ability to shut the other team’s top lines down. I think at this point whatever happens, happens. It is a business. I’m not too worried about it. I’m comfortable with my game. I know I can contribute and help the team win every night.”

While free agency may not be something Del Zotto is currently concerned with, he has to realize that a strong second half of the season would go a lot way towards cementing himself as one of the top free agent blueliners available.  Between that and being sat down at times, he’ll have plenty of motivation the rest of the way.

More news from Philadelphia:

  • Del Zotto is far from the only blueliner to make an impact offensively this season. Mark Streit, Shayne Gostisbehere, and Ivan Provorov are all in the top-35 league-wide for points by a defender, a byproduct of Hakstol’s request to have the back end get more involved at the offensive end, writes Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer.  The decision to have them take more chances offensively certainly has worked so far as the Flyers lead the league in points by defensemen.
  • Left winger Michael Raffl is set to miss the next one-to-two weeks with a lower body injury that’s believed to be a knee sprain, notes CSN Philly’s Jordan Hall. This is the second time this season that the 28 year Austrian will be on the shelf as he also missed eight games with an abdominal injury sustained in mid-October.  In 27 games this season, he has seven goals and two assists and has frequently been up and down the lineup.

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