Nashville Predators Hire Dan Muse As Assistant Coach
- The Nashville Predators have hired Dan Muse to replace the outgoing Phil Housley as an assistant coach for 2017-18, and have promoted Kevin McCarthy to associate head coach. Muse is a shooting star in terms of coaching prospects, jumping straight from a USHL championship with the Chicago Steel to an NHL bench at just 35 years old. Before taking the job with Chicago, he had been an assistant coach for several seasons at Yale under Keith Allain, a former NHL assistant and goalie coach.
Marek Mazanec Signs With Nashville Predators
Despite rumors that the team would move on from Marek Mazanec this year and him even clearing waivers earlier this month, Craig Morgan of AZ Sports reports that the Nashville Predators have inked the restricted free agent goaltender to a one-year, two-way $650K contract. Mazanec was scheduled for an arbitration hearing on July 27th, but will avoid it with his new contract.
Armed with the knowledge that no other team would take a chance on him and the upcoming hearing, the Predators were able to bring back a depth goaltender on the minimum contract. Though Mazanec has fallen well behind Juuse Saros as the potential backup for Pekka Rinne next year and a possible future starter, he does have 31 games of NHL experience and a fine track record in the AHL. To get that one a two-way deal is excellent, as they’ll have to pay Mazanec just $100K next year in the minors.
It’s interesting to see where Mazanec will fit in exactly, as the team also added both Anders Lindback and Matt O’Connor in free agency this year. All three will have to find playing time somewhere in the minor leagues, unless a move is made to deal one of them elsewhere. A loan to another AHL club is another option.
The Predators now have just Ryan Johansen, Austin Watson and Viktor Arvidsson to worry about as restricted free agents, the latter of which has his hearing scheduled for Saturday after exchanging figures this morning with the club. With almost $19MM in cap space left, they should be able to easily fit the last three into their system.
Viktor Arvidsson, Nashville Predators Exchange Arbitration Figures
Though Colton Parayko has avoided arbitration with the St. Louis Blues, the other hearings are still rapidly approaching. Viktor Arvidsson is set to have his heading on Saturday, and has exchanged figures with the Nashville Predators. The team has offered a two-year deal worth $5.5MM, while Arvidsson wants just one year at $4.5MM according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.
The gap of $1.75MM seems quite large, but unlike in the MLB an arbitrator does not have to side with one figure or the other. The actual salary could come somewhere in between. Just like Parayko however, the team still has 48 hours to try and get a deal done that would lock up Arvidsson longer than two years.
Arvidsson’s case is an interesting one. The undersized winger wasn’t drafted until he was already 21 years old, and even then just in the fourth round. Another year and a half in the minors, and he has just 142 NHL contests under his belt at age-24. He did break out this season for 31 goals and 61 points and no one doubts his talents, but as Mike Furlano explained this week there are certain things you can and can’t bring up in arbitration hearings. Arvidsson’s relative inexperience is definitely something the team will use against him.
The fact that he’s 24 also poses some problems to a long-term deal. Arvidsson is just three years away from unrestricted free agency, so any term beyond that would be paying for years that he believes would be his prime earning period. If he believes he can maintain this production (and why wouldn’t he) it would be a huge bidding war for his services on the open market. It’s difficult for the team to extend that much capital and give him anything close to fair market value on his UFA years though after just one season, making it a tough negotiation for both sides.
Pontus Aberg Signs With Nashville Predators
After handing out a three-year deal to Frederik Gaudreau yesterday, the Nashville Predators have signed another playoff surprise. The team announced a two-year contract for Pontus Aberg worth $1.3MM total. Aberg will earn the minimum salary of $650K each year.
Though he played just 15 games for the Predators during the regular season, the team turned to Aberg to provide some offensive jump in the playoffs, inserting him into the lineup for 16 games. Playing just under 13 minutes a night, Aberg provided five points in the team’s run to the Stanley Cup final, and showed flashes of the high potential he’s put on display at the AHL level.
Aberg was selected in the second round five years ago, and has been a goal-scoring master since coming over to North America. In 199 AHL games with Milwaukee, he’s scored 72 goals including 31 in just 56 games this season. That ability to find the back of the net is hard to come by, and the Predators will hope he can deliver at least part of that production in the NHL next year. Aberg is no longer waiver-exempt, meaning he’ll likely stay up with the club this year and try to force himself into a bigger role.
The Predators still have four restricted free agents to sign, including Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen. The pair represent the bulk of the offensive production for Nashville, and are incredibly important to get locked up under workable terms. Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing is set for Saturday, though there is still plenty of time to work out a long-term contract before then.
Frederick Gaudreau Signs Three-Year Deal With Nashville Predators
After showing he can contribute in the playoffs for the Nashville Predators, Frederick Gaudreau has received some certainty in his hockey future. The 24-year old signed a three-year contract worth $650K the first two seasons, and $700K in 2019-20. The first two seasons are also two-way, meaning he’ll make just $70K at the AHL level.
Gaudreau went undrafted out of the QMJHL as an undersized forward without eye-popping numbers, but has continued to develop in the AHL and this season made his NHL debut. Though his nine games during the season weren’t anything to write home about, he stepped up in the playoffs when the Predators’ center depth blew up and scored three big goals including two game-winners in the Stanley Cup Finals.
Playoff performance aside, Gaudreau doesn’t have much leverage when it came to contract negotiations. Though he was arbitration eligible, he chose not to file and instead agreed to a third year under contract. That will take him to unrestricted free agency, and it will be interesting to see if he can crack the Predators lineup next season. With just one regular season point under his belt it’s no guarantee, though many fans will likely lobby for his inclusion on the final roster.
The Predators now have five restricted free agents left to sign, including Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson. Though Johansen didn’t file for arbitration, Arvidsson’s hearing is set for July 22nd. The Predators have plenty of cap room, but will need to decide how long to lock up each of their young stars.
Shero May Not Be Done Dealing
The New Jersey Devils have had a phenomenal off-season by every measure. They lucked into the 1st overall pick and locked up Nico Hischier. They acquired Marcus Johansson for pennies on the dollar. They’ve shed salaries and ditched older, under-performing players. They bought out Mike Cammalleri and Devante Smith-Pelly for measly penalties and are embracing a full rebuild. About the only thing that could have gone better is if Ilya Kovalchuk‘s rights were dealt for a king’s ransom.
According to Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe, GM Ray Shero may not be done in trying to improve his team. Obviously, he needs to round out his depth, as there are only 34 contracts locked up, and the bottom lines and AHL need filling out. He also needs to re-sign RFAs Damon Severson, Stefan Noesen, Joseph Blandisi, and 6 others. Still, his team will find itself in the bottom 5 teams in cap expenditure, with $19.42 MM in space before any of these lesser signings. That leaves the management plenty of room to manuever.
Shinzawa suggests that Shero may utilize his relationship with Nashville GM David Poile to secure some extra scoring, considering the hefty sums they will need to hand out to RFAs Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen. While this is a possibility, it’s hard to see which contract Nashville would be willing to move. It’s perhaps more likely that Shero pursues a young defenseman. Anaheim still has a wealth of talent, and if they wanted to go the more aged route, Detroit is in a financial bind on the backend. Another name which might confuse some but who has a long relationship with Shero is Penguins’ D Olli Maatta. Maatta has vastly underperformed since signing his contract extension in Pittsburgh, and for the right price could be available. Vegas is still very willing to negotiate hockey deals, and their promising defenseman include the likes of Colin Miller and Shea Theodore.
Shero’s best ally right now is the cap crunch other teams are feeling. A productive forward could be sniped from Toronto on the cheap, and Chicago still needs to shed money somewhere along the line if the Marian Hossa LTIR situation goes south. He’s known primarily for his trade prowess which helped solidify the 2009 championship team in Pittsburgh, and it wouldn’t be out of character for him to again heavily work the phones. Hischier will need some sort of support, as the roster as it stands, while better than last year, is still incredibly lean.
Preds To Unveil Logo For 20th Anniversary
- Fresh off its first Stanley Cup Final appearance, the Nashville Predators unveiled another change for next season. In commemoration of its 20th season, Nashville will use a special logo for the 2017-2018 season writes the Tennessean’s Adam Vingan. Little else accompanied the news, however, as Vingan reports that more information will be available as the season draws closer.
Viktor Stalberg Signs With Swiss Club EV Zug
Over the past few years, many NHL veterans have turned to the Swiss National League A when they could not find a home in the NHL. Mark Arcobello, Roman Cervenka, Drew Shore, and Dustin Jeffrey made up some of the NLA’s top players in 2016-17. Yet, thus far it has been a quiet off-season for the growing Swiss league. Only lesser-known North American pros such as Mason Raymond and Joel Vermin have made the jump overseas, instead of the regular influx of NHL veterans like in recent years.
That is, until now. EV Zug, fresh off an appearance in the NLA championship, announced this morning that they have signed NHL veteran Viktor Stalberg to a two-year deal. It has been rumored for some time that Stalberg, ranked 45th in PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, was looking into NLA offers, but after playing well for the Ottawa Senators down the stretch and during their surprising playoff run this season, many thought he would eventually receive a suitable NHL offer instead. Perhaps that wasn’t the case, as the Swedish winger has signed on for two years in the NLA, signalling that he is taking a break from the NHL, at least for a while.
Stalberg, 31, has been committed to North American hockey for some time now and it is a bit strange to see him leave after his stock rose at the end of the 2016-17 season. Stalberg originally left home to play at the University of Vermont in 2006, the same year he had been drafted by the Toronto Maple Leafs. Stalberg went on to be a key forward for the Chicago Blackhawks for a few years, posting a 20-goal season and career-high 43 points with the team in 2011-12 and helping out the Stanley Cup-winning squad in 2012-13. Since leaving Chicago, Stalberg has become more of a journeyman mercenary; a role player for teams for short periods of time. In the past three years, he has played for the Nashville Predators and their AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals, the New York Rangers, the Carolina Hurricanes, and the Senators. In those three seasons, Stalberg registered only 46 points combined, which may have lent itself to the seemingly low level of interest from other teams. Stalberg may have lost his NHL scoring touch, but he’s likely to rediscover it in the NLA. Stalberg is a great veteran addition for HV Zug, and with more than a few years of hockey left in him, Stalberg’s NHL days may not be completely over yet either.
Is The Window Closing For The Chicago Blackhawks?
FanRag’s Carolyn Wilke outlines a few questions Chicago may have as they catch their breath following a head-spinning offseason. One such question Wilke revolves around general manager Stan Bowman who vowed changes following the Hawks’ four game sweep at the hands of the Nashville Predators. She points out that Bowman has been made to be the architect of the modern day dynasty, but trading away first round picks may be burning the Hawks. To be fair, Bowman’s deal with Arizona in 2015 to acquire Antoine Vermette netted a Stanley Cup–while yielding a first round pick.
But the past two exits, Wilke writes, may cast some doubt on Bowman’s abilities should they get bounced early again. The depth pieces he’s drafted or signed have not provided the help they need to sustain contender status. While Bowman has done a masterful job of keeping the team together, it’s often overlooked that a lot of the heavy lifting, and drafting was done by his predecessor, Dale Tallon, who was unceremoniously dumped in 2009. Worse, it’s well known that Bowman, and not Tallon, might have been more responsible for the qualifying offer deadline fiasco that ultimately cost Tallon his job.
To be sure, Tallon made his fair share of mistakes that didn’t help his case. But Bowman, who has offered some questionable contracts that have gummed up the cap situation, is facing what is most likely his most telling season since taking over as GM. From a purely numerical standpoint, it doesn’t look promising.
The Athletic’s Sean Tierney uses quantitative analysis to measure how Bowman did in his trades this offseason. Though they got younger and cheaper, Tierney uses Goals Above Replacement to illustrate just how much talent and production Chicago lost in the trade. When measuring the current roster versus its previous one, Tierney finds that there’s a steep drop off in production. Though Brandon Saad rises to the top of the GAR list,
The more startling metrics, using a model created by Dom Galamini. reveal that the Hawks playoff probability pre-trade (sans Marian Hossa) was 49% Following Bowman’s moves, it dips to 37%.
Is this to say the Blackhawks are doomed? Hardly.
But what it does show is just how difficult it is to win in the National Hockey League. Bowman has done a good enough job with the cap, and yet, like every other general manager, has struggled with a few deals that have come back to haunt him. The Brent Seabrook deal immediately comes to mind.
His tightrope act following the 2010 Stanley Cup championship allowed the Hawks to keep key parts, and astutely pick new talent to fill it. Saad was one of those pieces, selected in the 2011 draft.
So is the window really closing? Numbers can’t certainly predict everything, especially since the metrics used to predict playoff probability didn’t include some players that may see time. Phenom Alex DeBrincat falls into that category, especially if his goal scoring prowess from juniors carries over to the pros. He may not score buckets of goals, but consistent contribution is what the Hawks need for the future, especially as the core ages.
Last year’s team was tops in the Western Conference, winning 50 games and potting 109 points. It’s hardly time to write their epitaph.
But there certainly are signs that their dominance won’t be what it once was.
Free Agent Profile: Thomas Vanek
We are a week into free agency and a top ten member of the class is still available. Thomas Vanek, ranked eighth among PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents, still remains unsigned to the surprise of many. Vanek was a free agent last summer as well, after having the final season of a three-year $19.5MM contract with the Minnesota Wild bought out. While there were questions about his game then as well, and an apparent lack of interest that led to a one-year, $2.6MM deal with the Red Wings (a 60% drop in value from his $6.5MM AAV with the Wild), there was still sufficient enough demand that Detroit felt they had to lock him up right away on July 1st. This year? Not so much.
The strange thing about Vanek’s 2017 scenario is that he is coming off a strong, redeeming campaign. Rather than last summer, when he was fresh off the worst season of his career and a buyout, Vanek instead entered the free agent market this year with a 38-point season under his belt, seven more points in six less games than 2015-16. Vanek played extremely well in Detroit, posting 15 goals and 23 assists in 48 games, creating plenty of buzz around his trade deadline status. Although rumors swirled that Vanek would like to re-sign with the Red Wings, the team nevertheless got what they could for him, sending Vanek to the Florida Panthers for Dylan McIlrath and a third-round draft pick. In Florida, Vanek added two goals and eight assists in 20 games, but it wasn’t enough for the Panthers to make the playoffs and Vanek was out of time to show off for teams in need of scoring this summer.
Apparently, he needed to do more in 2016-17. With 697 points in 885 NHL games, Vanek’s history as an elite scorer is well established. A two-time 40-goal scorer and power play wizard, who has twice in his career topped a point-per-game pace for a whole season, there is little doubt about Vanek’s track record of creating offense. However, there are questions as to just how fast that offensive ability is slowing down. Vanek is certainly no longer a threat for 40 or even 30 goals, nor does he sit atop the league in man-up production any more. While he seemingly proved in Detroit that he can still deliver 40 or 50 points, he also looked slower up and down the ice and lacked the same quickness and creativity in the offensive zone that he used to have. The lack of interest could also be due to a noticeable drop-off in defensive ability. Vanek was never a Selke candidate, but he has always played a sound two-way game. As he has slowed down the past two years, his defensive stats have dropped off and he often looked solely focused with keeping up on offense, rather than playing a complete game. Endurance, and all that it entails in the back-and-forth game of hockey, simply seems to be an issue for Vanek and is unlikely to improve.
Nonetheless, 48 points is 48 points and there is a reason why Vanek was ranked #8 out of all free agents. The shooting ability and offensive instincts are still there for the 33-year-old, and 45-year-old Jaromir Jagr is still making that skill set work in the NHL. It’s only a matter of time before Vanek signs somewhere, but just like last summer, it appears as if it could be another bargain for a player whose age and pace of play seemed to be blown out of proportion while his experience and offensive contribution are under-rated.
Potential Suitors
We originally projected that Vanek would return to the Florida Panthers, who were in need of scoring help, especially with Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith now in Las Vegas. However, Dale Tallon and the Panthers went in a different direction, bringing back Evgeni Dadonov from the KHL and inking a different veteran scorer, Radim Vrbata. Like Vrbata and Jagr, Vanek seems best-suited for one-year or short-term deals the rest of the way, especially if he’s struggling to establish his value. Who could use a short-term scorer? A return to Detroit could make sense. The fit worked out great and there were talks of an extension prior to the deadline trade, so the two sides might see if Lightning can strike twice. The Red Wings lack much cap space and should be rebuilding, but GM Ken Holland might have missed that memo. Another possibility could be the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks are still a contender out West, just one year removed from a Stanley Cup appearance, but have had a very quiet off-season and just lost a high-scoring veteran winger in Patrick Marleau. This year’s Western Conference Cup qualifier, the Nashville Predators, traded away a key forward in Colin Wilson and have more than enough cap space to squeeze Vanek in if they so choose. The Boston Bruins could use another scoring threat in the top nine and they might not mind having Vanek, notorious for his strong play against Boston during his years with the Sabres and Canadiens, on their side for once. Finally, don’t rule out the Los Angeles Kings, who certainly don’t need to get slower, but who surely need more scoring with few dependable options left on the market.
Expected Contract
We predicted that Vanek would sign a one-year, $3MM deal this off-season, a logical next step after a bounce back season on a one-year, $2.6MM contract. That range still seems reasonable, unless the market really is as quiet as it seems and no one is willing to pony up that kind of money. The affordable contracts signed by aging scorers like Kris Versteeg (#26) and Ales Hemsky (#44) combined with the availability of Jagr (#13), Drew Stafford (#21), and Jiri Hudler (#40), doesn’t help Vanek’s cause. He’s not ready to retire and he won’t move overseas, but don’t be surprised if Vanek remains unsigned, holding out for market value, before finally signing for less than he did last summer.