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The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?

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With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).

Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?

The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.

So what range should Ellis fall into?

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Predators Sign Zach Magwood To Entry-Level Contract

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A development camp effort has turned into a first pro contract for one young forward. The Nashville Predators announced today that they have signed center Zach Magwood to a three-year entry-level contract. Magwood participated in Nashville’s development camp last week and impressed with a hat trick in the culminating “Future Stars Game” on Friday.

Magwood, 20, is an undrafted forward out of the OHL’s Barrie Colts. At 5’10”, the right-shooting centerman is on the smaller side, but didn’t let that stop him from improving each year in junior. In 2017-18, Magwood set career highs with 65 games played, 27 goals, 32 assists, 59 points, and a +27 rating. He was the Colts’ fourth-leading scorer and helped the team claim a division title. He then contributed ten points and a team-best +3 rating in twelve postseason games.

Magwood may have some NHL potential down the road, but is likely to develop further in the AHL for a few years. Not only could Magwood afford to grow his game, but he could also stand to grow up physically, filling out his frame to make up for his smaller stature. With Ryan Johansen, Kyle Turris, Nick Bonino, Calle Jarnkrok, and Colton Sissons all natural centers ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, Magwood will be given more than enough time to do just that before any real chance at a regular NHL role.

Nashville Predators Sign Colin Blackwell

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The Nashville Predators have added even more minor league depth, signing Colin Blackwell to a two-year, two-way contract that carries a $675K cap hit in the NHL. Blackwell had been playing for the Rochester Americans on an AHL contract, but certainly did enough to deserve an NHL deal this summer.

Blackwell, 25, was originally a seventh-round pick of the San Jose Sharks in 2011 but decided to finish his degree at Harvard and spent all four years low on the depth chart at the ivy league school. After finishing his collegiate career, he played a season for the San Jose Barracuda but really broke out last year for Rochester. In 61 games he registered 45 points and was arguably their most consistent forward, and now will try to bring that newfound confidence to the Milwaukee Admirals.

Nashville has been adding plenty of talent for their minor league organization over the last few days, already signing Rocco Grimaldi, Connor Brickley and Jarred Tinordi to two-way contracts. Blackwell will just add to that depth and try to get the Admirals back on top in the AHL.

Nashville Predators Sign Zac Rinaldo

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The Nashville Predators have given Zac Rinaldo another chance, signing him to a one-year two-way contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Rinaldo played 53 games for the Arizona Coyotes last season and was his usual physical self, collecting 188 hits and earning his fifth career suspension after sucker-punching Samuel Girard in December.

Rinaldo, 28, has 34 points in 328 career games but was never expected to contribute offensively. He’ll be reunited in the Nashville organization with Peter Laviolette, the head coach that gave him his first opportunity in the 2011 playoffs. He took 12 penalty minutes in those two games, a sign of things to come. One of the last real enforcer-type players in the NHL, Rinaldo will likely spend time in the minor leagues before coming up for any especially physical matchups.

Nashville Predators Sign Connor Brickley, Rocco Grimaldi, Jarred Tinordi

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The Nashville Predators watched the rest of the league throw money at many of the free agents available earlier today, but now have a few signings of their own. Connor Brickley, Rocco Grimaldi and Jarred Tinordi have all signed one-year two-way contracts worth $650K at the NHL level, giving the organization several excellent minor league players that have NHL experience.

Kings To Sign Drew Doughty To Eight-Year Extension

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July 1: The Kings have officially announced the contract, signing Doughty to an eight-year, $88MM contract extension. The deal will kick in for the 2018-19 season, and make Doughty the highest-paid defenseman in the league, barring an even bigger extension being signed before then.

June 29: A major impending free agent is about to be off the market, but it’s not a member of the 2018 class, but the 2019 class. When July 1st arrives and players with expiring contracts after next season are first eligible to sign extensions, Los Angeles defenseman Drew Doughty is expected to re-sign with the Kings. TSN Insider Pierre LeBrun reports that the two sides put the finishing touches on a max eight-year extension today that will be officially signed on Sunday. No financial terms have been disclosed.

The Kings are undoubtedly one of the teams that benefited the most from the massive salary cap spike this off-season. That added flexibility allowed L.A. to add much-needed scoring in the form of Ilya Kovalchuk without losing the breathing room needed to retain Doughty. For a time, many speculated that Doughty would test free agency next summer, but over the past few months the Norris Trophy-winner has made it clear that he would prefer to stay with the Kings. The team’s acquisition of Kovalchuk and continued search for talent this off-season was likely the very last boost of confidence that Doughty needed to re-up in L.A.

Doughty now joins fellow defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson of the Arizona Coyotes and center Logan Couture of the San Jose Sharks as potential superstar free agents who will instead sign on with their current teams as soon as possible. Doughty is the biggest name so far and, if previous reports prove true, will soon be the highest paid defenseman in hockey. Doughty has gone on the record as saying that he would like to be paid more than Nashville Predators blue liner P.K. Subban, who is currently the highest-paid defenseman in the league at $9MM AAV. LeBrun’s TSN colleague Darren Dreger is among many speculating that deal will land in the realm of $11MM per year over the eight years, which would make him the new top dog among defenders and the second-highest paid player in the league – at least until Erik Karlsson signs his next contract.

Free Agent Notes: Holden, Ellis, Namestnikov, Wilson

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The Vegas Golden Knights already surprised a few when they reached out and stole Paul Stastny away from Western Conference rival Winnipeg. However, the Golden Knights are apparently not done as The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Vegas is the front-runner for unrestricted free agent defenseman Nick Holden.

Holden, who spent time with both the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins last season, would be a solid depth defenseman that could add to Vegas’ core. he averaged 19:00 ATOI between both clubs, but only posted four goals and 17 points on the year. However, the 31-year-old may be starting to show a decline in skills as he was a 34-point player in 2016-17 with the Rangers.

Incidentally, Holden is being pursued by two teams as the Boston Bruins are also vying for the blueliner’s services, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. The Bruins, after all, gave up a third-round pick and low-end prospect Rob O’Gara at the deadline.

  • LeBrun also mentions that while Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis, who will be a unrestricted free agent in one year, can sign an extension as of today. However, the scribe writes that Nashville isn’t there yet. They intend to reignite talks with Ellis and his representatives within the next one to two weeks. Nashville wants to keep Ellis in the fold at all costs as the team has put major emphasis on having a dominant four defense. The team already has P.K. Subban ($9MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV) locked up for four years, while Roman Josi ($4MM AAV) is signed for another two years.
  • The New York Rangers can breathe easier after the agent for restricted free agent Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Milstein, refuted rumors that the forward was leaving for the KHL. Namestnikov, who was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but saw his playing time drop once he arrived in New York. After averaging 17:30 of ATOI as a Lightning, his playing time dropped to 15:43, along with his offensive production. After potting 20 goals with Tampa Bay, he managed just four points in 19 games with the Rangers. However, Milstein insists the rumors are not true and that Namestnikov believes playing in the NHL is a privilege and honor and an extension is in the works with the New York Rangers.
  • Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News reports the Buffalo Sabres are currently working on re-signing winger Scott Wilson. The 26-year-old was picked up in a December trade this last season from the Detroit Red Wings and played a regular role as a bottom-six forward. After not scoring a point in 17 games with Detroit, he tallied six goals and 14 points in 49 games in Buffalo.

Zac Rinaldo To Sign A Two-Way Deal With Nashville

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The Nashville Predators continue to add depth to their team as Fox Sports Andy Strickland reports that unrestricted forward Zac Rinaldo will sign a two-way deal with the Predators. Terms of a deal have not been announced.

With the team’s significant depth at forward at the NHL level, the two-way deal is significant as the team can have him play with their AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals and can then be called up to supplement the team’s depth if needed without having to pass the forward through waivers. The physical forward, who played for the Arizona Coyotes last year, re-joins Nashville head coach Peter Laviolette when both were with the Philadelphia Flyers. Rinaldo started with Philadelphia and played five season there before being traded to Boston in 2015.

The 28-year-old forward played in just 53 games with the Coyotes last season, posting five goals and seven points on the season along with 44 penalty minutes, playing the entire season at the NHL level. He is well know for controversial hits, including one last December in which he was suspended six games for punching Colorado defenseman Samuel Girard. He has been suspended five times by the Department of Player Safety over his career.

 

 

Free Agent Focus: Nashville Predators

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Free agency is now just days from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Nashville’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: G Juuse Saros — The goaltender of the future just burned his final year of his entry-level deal and now goes into restricted free agency. Still blocked by Vezina Trophy winner Pekka Rinne, the 23-year-old netminder has transitioned nicely into the team’s backup who can give the 35-year-old Rinne a breather once in a while. In a career-high 26 NHL games last year, Saros put up a 2.45 GAA and more importantly a .925 save percentage.

With Rinne on the last year of his current seven-year, $49MM deal he signed back in 2011, Saros time as the starting goaltender of the future could come soon, who even managed to make four appearances in the team’s abbreviated playoff run. With an AAV of $925K last season, Saros should get a nice bump up in pay next season.

F Ryan Hartman — The gritty forward was picked up at the trade deadline from the Chicago Blackhawks for their playoff run and projects as a solid and versatile bottom-six option for a deep Nashville roster. The 23-year-old posted a 31-point season between the two teams last year, including three goals and six points in 21 games with the Predators, while averaging 13:46 of ATOI. He added another two goals in nine playoff games for Nashville. After a season in which he made just $863K last season, he should get a raise, but with no arbitration rights, probably won’t cost the team too much.

Other RFA’s: F Miikka Salomaki.

Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Alexei Emelin — The team traded for Emelin last offseason as a means to bring in a potential top-four defenseman to fill in for the injured Ryan Ellis for the first half of the season. The 32-year-old posted almost the exact same numbers last year, but once Ellis returned in January, Emelin’s minutes dropped and in the end averaged a career-low in minutes with just 16:53 ATOI. He will take a major paycut after receiving $4.1MM last year in a deal he signed with Montreal back in 2013. However, with seven defensemen with NHL experience already locked up on the Predators roster, it doesn’t look like Emelin will return to Nashville next season.

F Scott Hartnell — While the 36-year-old had respectable numbers in his return to Nashville, the 17-year veteran is not expected to return to Nashville with the amount of young talent that is trying to break into the Predators lineup. Regardless, the veteran has already stated that he intends to play for another season, but almost assuredly will be looking for a new home.

Other UFA’s: F Cody Bass, F Brandon Bollig, G Anders Lindback, F Mark McNeill, G Matt O’Connor, D John Ramage, F Trevor Smith, F Harry Zolnierczyk.

Projected Cap Space: The Predators are projected to have $12MM in available cap space going into free agency and while the team does have to lock up a couple restricted free agents like Saros and Hartman, the team has money to play with. Regardless, the Predators haven’t been in on many free agent rumors so far suggesting the team might hold back and add specialty players to team that intends to challenge for a Stanley Cup this year. The team also must be ready to have the eventual cap space to lock up Ellis, who will be a free agent in the 2019-20 season.

 

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