The Prettiest And Ugliest Contracts Of July 1
Although hindsight is usually the only way to be certain as to when a deal flops, it seems reasonable to make an immediate assessment as to what deals will backfire or pay dividends. Today was a far more reserved July 1st than the league has accustomed itself to, but there are still a few contracts that stick out – for better or for worse.
Pretty: Patrick Sharp – Chicago Blackhawks – $800,000, 1 year.
This doesn’t seem fair. Chicago has been trapped in cap jail, and suddenly, here arrives a productive asset at nearly no cost. Sharp, coming off an injury-filled season, is coming back to the Windy City at a dirt-cheap rate. If he can even find half of the production he had during his last outing, this is a monumental steal. There’s no risk here, and a ton of upside. He still has the hands and hockey IQ to contribute.
Ugly: Steve Mason – Winnipeg Jets – $4,1 MM per, 2 years
Winnipeg was seemingly the last team standing when the music stopped playing. With a goaltending market that inspired no one, the Jets decided today to place their faith in Steve Mason. Coming off a .908 save percentage year, it’s hard to see him doing much worse. But behind the Winnipeg defense, it’s hard to see him doing much better. The pricetag is what really seals this as poor value relative to play. Luckily, if things don’t pan out, it’s only for two seasons. Connor Hellebuyck better prepare himself just in case. Taken in tandem with the highly questionable Dmitry Kulikov contract, GM Kevin Cheveldayoff maybe should have taken the day off.
Pretty: Radim Vrbata – Florida Panthers – $2.5 MM per, 1 year
Vrbata is absolutely a top-six winger, and he was signed for bottom-six money. He can assist a powerplay, and slot up and down a lineup as needed. Florida desperately needed to re-coup some scoring on the cheap after letting so many of their top point-getters walk or be lost to Vegas. With bonuses added in, this becomes a good prove-it deal for Vrbata as well. Solid value was found here for both parties and for a 20 goal, 55 point player, Florida will happily run away from this one.
Ugly: Trevor Daley – Detroit – $3.18MM per, 3 years
Daley was bereft of ice time in these playoffs, and he was competing with some really underperforming defensemen. It’s not like he had a good regular season either – his Corsi For % fell off a proverbial cliff (53.7 to 46.1), and the eye test certainly agreed. He put up decent points, 5 goals and 14 assists through 56 contests, and he can still skate well enough. But long are the days where he can make a difference on special teams or drive an offense with confidence. His turnover rate and inconsistency are not what Detroit needed to stabilize the back-end, and Daley will be 36 at the conclusion of the deal. The last time Daley cut a lucrative free agent deal, Chicago had to offload him due to poor play.
Pretty: Kevin Shattenkirk – New York Rangers – $6.65MM per, 4 years
The money could end up being a slight overpayment, but at the moment it is solid value. Shattenkirk finished 4th in points among defensemen last season and St. Louis never looked the same after he left. He could instantly and single-handedly transform the Rangers’ defense from the jumbled mess they were last season. He will reliably feed the puck to the forward group, and be the quarterback of the Ranger powerplay. What makes this a beautiful deal, however, is the term. If Shattenkirk has a bad year or doesn’t fit the system, New York is not on the hook for eternity. One of the biggest pitfalls in free agency with the bigger names is offering far too many years on contracts. Time and time again, it burns teams who were looking to attract a big fish. GM Jeff Gorton deserves credit here for not going insane with the length, although he was helped by Shattenkirk’s strong desire to return home.
Ugly: Dan Girardi – Tampa Bay – $3 MM per, 2 years
Nothing about this deal makes sense. Girardi earned his buyout from New York through brutal play and horrible possession numbers. Of all the NHL defensemen who played more than 40 games, only Rasmus Ristolainen of Buffalo and Luke Schenn of Arizona had worse Corsi Against per 60 minutes – Girardi finished with 65.11 (versus a 51.67 CF60). By no metric other than shot blocks was he an effective player. He might be worth a flier in hopes of regaining form, but he’s not worth much more. This agreement is made even worse by the fact that Girardi will be stealing valuable playing time from a solid young defenseman like Slater Koekkoek or Jake Dotchin. Combined with the Chris Kunitz signing, this is a team that didn’t get any younger, or any better.
Kings Sign Goalie Darcy Kuemper
Speculated upon for some time, and confirmed by the L.A. Times’ Helene Elliot, the Los Angeles Kings have signed Darcy Kuemper to be a backup goalkeeper next season. The contract is for only one season and comes in at the league minimum $650,000 AAV. Kuemper has struggled mightily after being the most promising goaltending prospect in Minnesota for years. The 6’5 tender is still only 27, and will look to rebound in a new location. In 102 games NHL games, he’s posted 42 wins alongside a .910 save percentage and 2.60 goals against average.
Kuemper had a down season for the Wild as Devan Dubnyk was forced to start 63 contests. Considering Jonathan Quick‘s injury troubles, Kuemper will likely have a larger workload this season as L.A. coach John Stevens tries to reduce the strain on the athletic starter. Kuemper will need to do better than his .902 last season, and he certainly seems capable of doing so. After trading Ben Bishop to Dallas, it was a possibility that the Kings would look for another goaltender on the cheap. Jeff Zatkoff is still on the squad, but general manager Rob Blake was apparently looking for more security in between the pipes.
Kuemper still has a bit of upside to his game, as his is athletic and mobile. He was the top keeper of the CHL in 2011, so the talent is there. His confidence seemed to take a major hit this last season in Minnesota, and he never seemed to fully recover back to form. Kuemper is surely not the biggest name acquired today, but he could be a high-reward pickup with only minimal risk on Los Angeles’ part.
Minor Transactions: 7/1/17
Some additional signings that happened today:
- The Carolina Hurricanes added Brenden Kichton to a one-year, two-way contract. The Hurricanes announced that the deal is for $700K in the NHL and $235K in the AHL. Kichton played 63 games with the Manitoba Moose last season, recording 23 points (1-22). Dennis Robertson and Jeremy Smith also signed deals with the Hurricanes.
- The Canucks inked Anton Rodin to a one-year, $700K deal according to Sportsnet. Rodin struggled with injury last year, playing only three games for Vancouver.
- The Detroit Red Wings brought Luke Witkowski into the fold for a “toughness” aspect. Witkowski is a Michigan native and was added with a two-year, $1.4MM deal. Interestingly, it appears that he will shuffle between defense and forward for Detroit. Despite a glut of forwards, Detroit may want him to play the role that Steve Ott did last season, especially since it was Witkowski who broke Anthony Mantha‘s finger in a scuffle last season while with Tampa Bay.
- Winnipeg inked Michael Sgarbossa to a one-year, $650K deal. Last season, he was with both the Anaheim Ducks and Florida Panthers. The 24-year-old had a combined nine points (2-7) with both teams. The Jets also added Buddy Robinson with a one-year deal worth $650K. It’s a two-way contract.
- Defenseman Seth Helgeson signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Islanders. The former New Jersey Devil played nine games with the big club last season, and spent 48 games with the AHL Albany Devils, scoring two goals and adding seven assists.
- Patrik Nemeth re-upped with Dallas, agreeing to a one-year, $945K deal. Nemeth had three points last season with the Stars in 40 games. Brian Flynn also hammered out a deal with Dallas, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract for $700K. Flynn spent last season with Montreal. Mike McKenna also signed on with the Stars, agreeing to a one-year, two-way contract. Dallas also agreed to terms with Brent Regner, who signed a one-year, two-way deal.
- The Sabres signed Matt Tennyson to a two-year deal, with the first year being on a two-way contract while the second is a one-way deal. Tennyson spent last season with the Carolina Hurricanes, where he played 45 games. He had six assists. Seth Griffith and Adam Wilcox also inked deals with the Sabres. Griffith agreed to a one-year, $650K deal while Wilcox’s one-year deal is a
- The Providence Journal’s Mark Divver reports that Jordan Szwarz signed a two-way deal with the Boston Bruins. Szwarz spent all of last season with the Providence Bruins, where he had 54 points (22-32) in 65 games.
- Derek Grant is on the move according to Darren Dreger, agreeing to a one-year deal with the Anaheim Ducks for $650K. It’s a one-way contract for Grant, who spent the majority of his time last season with the Buffalo Sabres. He also saw six games with Nashville.
- Montreal and Joe Morrow agreed to a one-year, one-way contract. Formerly with the Bruins, Morrow had one assist with the B’s, but only appeared in 17 games, as opposed to the 33 he saw a season prior.
- Ottawa made a slew of signings, adding Ben Sexton Max Reinhart, Tyler Randell, Erik Burgdoerfer, and Danny Taylor to deals. Reinhart, Taylor and Randell all signed one-year deals, while Burgdoerfer and Sexton agreed to two-year deals.
- Mat Bodie signed a one-year, two-way contract with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Bodie appeared in a combined 62 games for Rochester and Hartford of the AHL last season. The Bolts also added Alex Gallant with a one-year deal. Gallant spent last year with the San Jose Barracuda. Finally, Michael Leighton and Jamie McBain both agreed to one-year, two-way deal as well.
- Kyle Rau and Minnesota came to terms on a one-year, $700K deal. Rau’s deal is a two-way deal and brings him back to his home state.
- TSN’s Aaron Ward tweets that Paul Carey agreed to terms with the New York Rangers. Ward reports that the deal is for one-year, and is worth $650K. The Blueshirts also added Cole Schneider to a one-year, two-way contract.
- The Flames brought Marek Hrivik aboard, signing him to a one-year, two-way deal. Postmedia’s Wes Gilbertson tweets the move is for organizational depth. According to Fox Sports West’s Jon Rosen, the Flames have also signed their 2016 seventh-round pick Stepan Falkovsky to a three-year entry-level contract.
- The Oilers signed Eddie Pasquale to a one-year, two-way deal. Pasquale was allowed to walk away from the Red Wings organization. Another player signed away from the Red Wings organization was Mitch Callahan, who agreed to a two-year, two-way deal. Both were reported by Ryan Rishaug. Keegan Lowe also inked a one-year, two-way deal. The Oilers weren’t done, also adding Ryan Stanton with a $700k deal. The deal is for two years, and is a two-way contract. Edmonton also inked forwards Brian Ferlin, Grayson Downing and Ty Rattie to one-year deals.
- Nashville agreed to terms with Pierre-Cedric Labrie, who came from the Blackhawks organization. Labrie agreed to a one-year, two-way contract. The deal is worth $650K.
- The Stanley Cup Champion Penguins added some names today, all on one-year deals. Jarred Tinordi, Zach Trotman and Greg McKegg all agreed to a single-year deal. Chris Summers signed on for a two-year deal. In an additional release, the team has re-signed Tom Sestito, Frank Corrado to one-year two-way deals, and goaltender Casey DeSmith to a two-year two-way deal. All three will earn $650K in the NHL.
- The Sharks and goalie Antoine Bibeau signed off on a one-year, two-way deal. Bibeau was not offered a qualifying deal with his former team in Toronto.
- The Maple Leafs weren’t done, as they announced the signings of Colin Greening to a one-year deal (two-way, $750K), and Chris Mueller (two-way, $650K) and Vincent LoVerde (two-way, $725K) to two-year deals.
- The Winnipeg Jets have signed defenseman Cameron Schilling to a one-year, two-way contract. Schilling was with the Rockford IceHogs and Ontario Reign last season, where he scored 26 points.
- The Colorado Avalanche have signed three more players, inking Andrew Agozzino and David Warsofsky to two-year deals while bringing in Joe Cannata for just one season.
- Arizona has signed Zac Rinaldo, Michael Sislo, Andrew Campbell and Joel Hanley to one-year two-way contracts. It’s a fall for Rinaldo, who was once traded for a third-round pick.
- Chase Balisy, Connor Brickley, Reece Scarlett, Harri Sateri and Curtis Valk have all signed one-year contracts with the Florida Panthers. Interestingly, Brickley was the Vegas Golden Knights’ selection from the Hurricanes during the expansion draft but was a Group VI free agent this summer.
- The Devils have added Brian Strait, Bracken Kearns and Brian Gibbons on one-year two-way deals, bringing in the veterans for $650K at the NHL level.
- The Vegas Golden Knights have signed six players. They have signed forward T.J. Tynan and defenseman Brad Hunt to two-year deals at $650,000 per season. They inked forward Paul Thompson, forward Stefan Matteau, defenseman Chris Casto and goalie Maxime Lagace to one-year contracts at $650,000.
Stars Sign Tyler Pitlick To Three-Year Deal
The Dallas Stars added some more forward depth, inking Tyler Pitlick to a three-year, $3MM deal. Pitlick spent last season with the Edmonton Oilers, notching 11 points (8-3).
Pitlick comes at a relatively low cost and is still only 25 years of age. It’s a depth move for the Stars, who are looking to rebound from an injury-ravaged 2016-17 season. The Stars released their own announcement on the signing, with general manager Jim Nill saying:
“Tyler is a young player who will add speed and size to our lineup,. He offers versatility to our forward group and we look forward to him being a Dallas Star for many years.”
Patrik Berglund Undergoes Surgery, Out Until December
In an announcement that might explain their acquisition of Brayden Schenn even more, the St. Louis Blues have revealed that Patrik Berglund underwent left shoulder surgery yesterday and will be out until December. The injury happened during his offseason training in Sweden.
Berglund is just heading into a new five-year contract extension that will pay him $3.85MM per season, and was set to start the season as one of the centers for the Blues. Instead, he’ll miss almost the first half of the season and the Blues will scramble to fill the position. Luckily, they acquired Schenn from the Philadelphia Flyers on the weekend and have several players who can move to the middle. Alex Steen, Vladimir Sobotka, Kyle Brodziak, Zachary Sanford, Ivan Barbashev and Oskar Sundqvist all have various levels of experience in the middle, giving the Blues several options behind Schenn and Paul Stastny.
Even so, losing Berglund for that amount of time is a painful hit to a team looking to contend this year. His 23 goals were a career high and actually ranked second on the team, and he’s a responsible checker capable of providing minutes in all situations. The Blues don’t have a ton of room to spend on free agency for another fix, as the majority of their cap room is going to be eaten up by a Colton Parayko extension. They have more than enough depth to fill his role, though a lesser addition to the wing may still be in the cards for the summer.
Snapshots: Gagner, Condon, Hamonic
The Blackhawks are linked to Columbus UFA Sam Gagner, by way of a report from The Athletic’s Scott Powers. The parties have reached out to one another and expressed “mutual interest”. Gagner could be a good fit in Chicago, as he could jump-start an oddly sluggish powerplay, which finished 24th in the league last season. As always, an issue with signing in the Windy City is available cap dollars. Even after parting with Scott Darling, Artemi Panarin and Niklas Hjalmarsson, the team is $2.99 MM over the cap ceiling, Luckily the team doesn’t have any free agents that absolutely need to be re-signed, so they are free to prune a few forwards from the roster to get within acceptable range. Adding another mid-tier contract could complicate matters. The team has already been rumored to move on from center Marcus Kruger, who only makes $3.083 MM himself. Gagner will be looking for a figure around there after his career season, so his acquisition would mean more shuffling from GM Stan Bowman.
Judging by the fan reaction to the Panarin and Hjalmarsson moves, further shuffling might only serve to further shake confidence in the team’s direction. This isn’t even taking into account the Marian Hossa Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR) drama, which alone should make for an interesting summer. For what it’s worth, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector believes Gagner will not return to Edmonton, so that eliminates a potential landing spot. Still, there are few available centers with his skill-set and offensive output, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Chicago out-bid on this particular player.
- The Flyers are not comfortable with an Anthony Stolarz and Michael Neuvirth tandem heading into 2017-18, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Sam Carchidi. Carchidi goes through the entire UFA selection, including former Flyer Steve Mason, Brian Elliott, Jonathan Bernier, Ryan Miller, and even Keith Kinkaid. Bernier could be a fit, but with his inconsistency I don’t see it being a good one. Mason endured a good deal of fan blame this season, and while a short-term deal is not impossible, it’s a fair assumption he searches for a role in another town. If the Flyers wanted to run a tandem, Neuvirth with Condon could work quite well. The author doesn’t believe that Condon is much of an upgrade over Stolarz, but at 23 and with 2 career wins, Stolarz is simply not at the same level. It’s rare to see a goalie that young be able to take a 40 game (or more) NHL workload with total success. Considering the Flyers’ developing defense, it might be a wise decision on GM Ron Hextall‘s part to shelter him in the AHL for another season. Stolarz is definitely their future, and they will look to find a one to two year agreement with whatever stopgap they decide on.
- A fascinating piece from Newsday’s Arthur Staple details what can only be described as an odd non-deal. The Islanders apparently offered Travis Hamonic and a 1st round pick to Colorado for Matt Duchene, which was subsequently declined by GM Joe Sakic. Isles GM Garth Snow proceeded to move Hamonic for picks while acquiring Jordan Eberle in a separate transaction. Duchene remains in Denver, and apparently his agent Pat Brisson is not happy with the turn of events. Duchene has been linked to trade rumors since nearly the start of the season, which saw his Avalanche finish with an abysmal 48 point dead-last league finish. Sakic was rumored to have a heavy asking price, and this apparent rejection only solidifies those rumblings. Hamonic himself ended up fetching a 1st and two 2nds from Calgary, which is a sizable haul for the Isles. Islanders faithful can’t be too disappointed by the alternative route Snow traversed.
Free Agent Focus: Detroit Red Wings
The free agent period is now less than one week away from opening up and there are several prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Detroit’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agents: Winger Tomas Tatar has been the Red Wings most consistent scorer over the past couple seasons and is due for a large raise as a result. Though he played with a shoulder injury for much of the season, Tatar still managed to pot 25 goals. The wrinkle with Tatar is that he could still be used as a trade chip should Detroit general manager Ken Holland seek a defensive upgrade. But this seems unlikely. Holland rarely pulls the trigger on deals, despite being known to say that he’s “working the phones.” Expect Tatar to re-sign for somewhere around the money Gustav Nyquist received, possibly getting more.
C Andreas Athanasiou: Another player rumored to be used as a trade chip, Athanasiou is a dynamic, game breaking forward who uses his speed and hands to generate scoring chances while creating highlight reel goals. Despite this, the Red Wings brass and coaching staff have chided Athanasiou for his lack of defensive play and this could pull back some of the dollars he could see. The Red Wings are in somewhat of a strange flux with their roster, and Athanasiou is one of the bright spots on the roster. He’ll see a bump from his entry-level deal, especially since Detroit will need to be more reliant upon him this year.
Other RFA’s: Xavier Ouellet, Robbie Russo, Martin Frk, Jake Paterson, Brian Lashoff
Key Unrestricted free agents: LW Drew Miller – Miller isn’t so much a “key” UFA player as he is an indication of what the Red Wings brass truly values. Miller, at best, is a fringe fourth liner in the NHL. Though a “penalty kill specialist,” numbers revealed that the Red Wings penalty kill hardly missed Miller when he was sent down to AHL affiliate Grand Rapids last season. The point? The Red Wings must hand off ice time to younger, faster, more skilled players. Re-signing Miller reveals that the Red Wings still don’t trust their young players and worse, will yield very little in the way of production from Miller.
Other UFA’s: Joe Vitale, Ben Street, Dylan McIlrath, Mitch Callahan, Edward Pasquale
Projected Cap Space: Via CapFriendly, the Red Wings have close to $8MM ($7,902,955 to be exact). This money will be used to essentially re-sign everyone within the organization and leave maybe $2-$3MM for an unrestricted free agent. Though Dan Girardi is out there, it makes little sense for Detroit to throw large sums of money on a defenseman who is clearly declining. Saving the money and possibly trying to upgrade via trade would be Detroit’s best option.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Should Vegas Corner Goalie Market?
With the recent trade of Mike Smith to Calgary, the market for starting goaltenders is dwindling even further. An interesting dynamic for the Vegas Golden Knights as they choose their team will be whether they opt to select every quality goalie out there in order to flip them to other teams. There are quite a few available – Marc-Andre Fleury of Pittsburgh, Eddie Lack (and Cam Ward) of Carolina, Calvin Pickard of Colorado, Antti Raanta of New York, Petr Mrazek of Detroit, Roberto Luongo of Florida, Jaroslav Halak of the Islanders, Michal Neuvirth of Philadelphia, Peter Budaj of Tampa Bay, and Philipp Grubauer of Washington, with a few interesting prospects also exposed. As we’ve seen in the past few seasons, dealing a goaltender for anything remotely resembling fair value can be an enormous challenge. The salary cap has really warped the value of a solid starting goaltender in a way that has not been totally beneficial to the players.
One down season and a tender’s value goes down quite heavily. The top ten goalies in the league always seem to find a home on the rare occasion they hit unrestricted free agency, but that has been a rare occurrence. Many might point to the 2010 Stanley Cup Final when they isolate a particular moment that the highly-paid goaltender became an oddity. In that Final, Michael Leighton, third-string for Philadelphia, faced off against the very pedestrian Antti Niemi, who was then sacrificed for cap reasons. With the whole league watching, these teams ascended to hockey’s main stage with relative no names in the crease. While that moment may have been particularly damaging, the moment for me was the fiasco that was the Luongo and Cory Schneider trade saga in Vancouver, which lasted parts of 2 seasons. Then Canucks GM Mike Gillis had a terrible time finding a suitor for Luongo before finally being forced to ship Schneider off in the 2013 offseason for a 9th round pick. This too, was terrible value, considering that Schneider was one of the best young goalies in the league and coming off a scorching season where he had a .937 save percentage. This ordeal took place less than two years after Luongo had taken the team to its first Final since 1994. Granted, Luongo’s contract was considered a bit of an albatross, but it very publicly cemented the value of goaltenders on the trade market as minimal.
Looking forward to the present day, and the last two goaltenders have been traded for rather uninspiring returns. Arizona’s Smith only fetched a 3rd rounder, and Ben Bishop only netted a 4th from Dallas. GM George McPhee could end up hosting a goaltender buffet, with few paying customers. He would be wise to gauge the interest of other teams before deciding on their selections in net. They obviously want to draft a solid starter and a few young goaltenders as future cornerstones. They need to draft 3, and it’s difficult to envision them drafting less than 4 with the enticing names available out there. But if they decide to go into 5 or 6 goaltender territory, McPhee could manufacture a logjam that could be difficult to sort out. After all, only the WInnipeg Jets are truly desperate for a starting goaltender, and that’s assuming they don’t want one of Brian Elliott, Mike Condon, or another UFA to be their partner for Connor Hellebuyck. Philadelphia could be interested in a younger asset, and there are always teams who will desperately seek a starter mid-season when a keeper inevitably goes down to injury. That said, the market simply doesn’t favor the strategy of going all-in in net.
Anaheim Ducks Re-Sign Nic Kerdiles
Lost in the shuffle of the Expansion Roster Freeze Deadline earlier today, the Anaheim Ducks announced that they agreed to an extension with restricted free agent forward Nicolas Kerdiles prior to the afternoon deadline. The new deal for the young winger is for one year at $650K, the league minimum, and is a two-way contract. The 23-year-old will again be a restricted free agent next summer.
Kerdiles, a 2012 second-round pick from the U.S. National Development Team, finally made his NHL debut in 2016-17 after two years of college hockey at the University of Wisconsin and two full seasons in the AHL. While Kerdiles skated in just one regular season game for the Ducks, he was given the much bigger role of suiting up for four playoff games as well. Kerdiles recorded his first NHL point in the Ducks’ final game of the season, a Game Six loss to the Nashville Predators in the Western Conference Finals. Kerdiles likely would have played in more NHL games if it wasn’t for his injury struggles, which also limited him to just 27 regular season games with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls. However, Kerdiles was back at full strength in the AHL playoffs and was a point-per-game performer in his eight contests.
While Ducks fans are likely happy to see the news regarding Kerdiles, a popular local player, it is important to remember that nothing is set in stone until the expansion process has run its course. The timing of Kerdiles extension, much like those of Edmonton’s Jujhar Khaira, Montreal’s Charles Hudon, and Vancouver’s Erik Gudbranson in recent days, is certainly suspicious. It would be one thing if these players were all guaranteed to be protected by their teams, but instead they are all very much fringe players when it comes to putting together protection lists. If these players are exposed, new contracts will only increase their odds of being selected, taking pressure off of the Vegas Golden Knights, who must hit a quota of 20 players with contract term in the draft. Could these signings, particularly that of Kerdiles, whose team is known to be negotiating a side deal with the Knights, be part of a bigger strategy? It certainly seems like a strong possibility. There will be a better idea in the morning when protection lists are announced at 9:00 AM CT and of course we will know for sure when the Expansion Draft arrives on Wednesday. Until then, Anaheim fans can celebrate another year of Kerdiles (they hope).
Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning
We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.
Steve Yzerman fired the first shot in the pre-expansion draft trade market by acquiring Mikhail Sergachev from Montreal for Jonathan Drouin, a move that gave the Lightning flexibility both with the cap and their expansion protection list. It also filled a need with the Bolts on defense. With that in mind, it makes Yzerman and the Lightning’s decisions slightly easier as to who to protect and who to expose. But there are still some tough choices to make.
Eligible Players (Non-UFA)
Forwards: Steven Stamkos (NMC), Ryan Callahan (NMC), Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, J.T. Brown, Erik Condra, Cedric Paquette, Ondrej Palat (RFA), Tyler Johnson
Defensemen: Victor Hedman (NMC), Jason Garrison, Anton Stralman, Braydon Coburn, Andrej Sustr (RFA), Slater Koekkoek, Jake Dotchin
Goaltender: Andrei Vasilevskiy, Kristers Gudlevskis (RFA)
Notable Exemptions
Mikhail Sergachev, Brett Howden
Key Decisions
Unloading Drouin certainly helped from a financial and expansion list aspect. This makes it somewhat easier for forwards to put on the protected list.
Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn are both choices that benefitted from Drouin being moved. Killorn netted 19 goals while Palat will continue to get better. Stamkos and Callahan both have NMCs. Despite fighting injury and not matching his production from 2014-15, Johnson is too good of a talent to leave exposed.
It’s on defense where tougher decisions need to be made, and it will come down to three players. Hedman and Stralman will both be protected, Hedman because he has a no-movement clause and Stralman is key to the Lightning blueline. Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn are both carrying heavier hits for the cap and will most likely be left alone when they’re exposed. Garrison could hypothetically be taken with his deal ending at the conclusion of the 2017-18 season, but the $4.6MM hit would probably scare Vegas away.
That leaves three choices to protect: Andrej Sustr, Jake Dotchin, and Slater Koekkoek. Sustr is a restricted free agent and won’t be able to command much in the way of money after having a down year. That doesn’t make him exempt from being exposed. If anything, seeing his numbers drop with a number of other options pounding on the door for the big club could make him the odd man out. However, he’s still an economical option and any leverage he had took a hit with the acquisition of Sergachev, who if scouting is correct, should find time on the Tampa blueline next season. But the problem with protecting Sustr is that Tampa would risk losing two young, and talented defensemen for nothing. In the same breath, would the Bolts want to possibly lose a steady defenseman who is only 26?
That leads to Dotchin and Koekkoek. Dotchin just turned 23, and registered 11 points in 35 games this season. The problem is, as Lightning blog Raw Charge pointed out, his sample size was limited compared to Koekkoek while being paired with Hedman. The 23-year-old Koekkoek logged 41 games over the past two seasons, but played strong for AHL affiliate Syracuse during the Calder Cup playoffs. Picking between them is essentially splitting hairs. Koekkoek appears to have the higher ceiling, and plays a cleaner game than Dotchin. Though they play different games, Yzerman might prefer a more disciplined, puck moving defenseman when choosing who to protect. At the same time, Dotchin plays a physical game, and can move the puck as well. He’s not afraid to muck it up, and provides a presence that protects his teammates on the ice–while still contributing on the score sheet. As Tampa Bay Times beat writer Joe Smith wrote, Dotchin has stood out to management, especially in the NHL and AHL during Syracuse’s Calder Cup Final run.
With two younger defensive prospects and after having a less than stellar season, predict Sustr to be exposed and Koekkoek protected. Don’t be surprised, as many others have written, if Yzerman pulls something off to keep all of his young defensemen so Dotchin remains in the fold.
Projected Protection List
F – Steven Stamkos (NMC)
F – Ryan Callahan (NMC)
F – Tyler Johnson (RFA)
F – Nikita Kucherov
F – Vladislav Namestnikov
F – Alex Killorn
F – Ondrej Palat (RFA)
D – Victor Hedman (NMC)
D – Anton Stralman
D –Slater Koekkoek (RFA)
Vasilevskiy is truly the only option to protect as 24-year-old netminder Kristers Gudlevskis is unlikely to be taken with other options presumably available from other teams. Of the decisions, it seems to be the least of Tampa’s worries.
The Lightning, despite missing the playoffs and sustaining injuries to one key player after another, still have a strong lineup that will absolutely compete next season. Peddling Drouin off certainly helped matters, but the third player to protect defensively is a tough decision to make. At the end of the day, though, Yzerman has shown skills deft enough to take a challenging situation and somehow make it work out. Don’t be surprised if he finds a way to do it again.
Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images