Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract
True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.
This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.
So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.
It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.
It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.
Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress). While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.
Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.
For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.
Unfortunate Extensions: Jake Allen & Petr Mrazek
When the St. Louis Blues went into this offseason, they had a problem. Some may call it a good problem, but it was an issue all the same; what to do with the tandem of Brian Elliott and Jake Allen? The team had gone to the Conference Finals for the first time in 15 years, and did it on the back of two outstanding seasons from their pair of netminders. Allen had a .920 save percentage in 44 starts, while Elliott carried a .930 mark through his 38 starts and continued his dominance into the playoffs, essentially moving Allen to the bench.
But when the summer came, the team decided it was time to move on from one of them and traded Elliott to the Calgary Flames. With just a year left on each goalie’s deal, the Blues wanted to get ahead of the controversy and establish Allen as their true franchise netminder. They signed him to a four-year, $17.4MM extension on the first day of free agency, locking him in long-term as their starter. After all, he was coming off the best season of his career and was still just 25-years old.
That decision hasn’t turned out too well for the Blues, who last week sent Allen away from the team, not even bringing him on a road trip to Winnipeg. Allen is sporting a .897 save percentage through the first half of the season, easily a career low for him. While some of that is a much weaker team in front of him defensively, not all of the blame can removed from his shoulders. He simply hasn’t been good enough for the Blues, and now it comes time to wonder about the decision to extend him in the summer.
With a $4.35MM cap-hit going forward, it’s not like the Blues will be completely hamstrung by his deal. There is room to get a quality veteran to split the season with him like Florida is doing with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer, but it is far from ideal. A team that has pending unrestricted free agents in Kevin Shattenkirk and Patrik Berglund, along with big RFA deals with Robby Fabbri and Colton Parayko looming in the next couple of seasons, needs their cap space used in effective manners. A long-term extension for a struggling goalie is not that.
In Detroit, a similar goaltender situation played out last year when Petr Mrazek and Jimmy Howard split the duties and pushed a underwhelming team into the playoffs. While Howard struggled during parts of the season and in the playoffs, Mrazek looked like a lock as a starting goaltender and perhaps even all-star going forward. The Wings were locked into Howard for another three seasons, but looked like they wanted to give the number one job to Mrazek after his great stretch run.
The team likely shopped the veteran Howard around but found no takers, and eventually decided on just a two-year deal with Mrazek when it came to free agency. Had they been able to find a taker for Howard and his $5.3MM cap hit, they probably would have tried to work out a longer-term deal with the younger netminder. Perhaps their inability to move Howard was a blessing in disguise however, as Mrazek has imploded in the Wings’ net, posting an .894 save percentage behind a reeling team. Howard was actually off to a great start before suffering an injury, making the decision even harder this summer.
Howard is still likely on the move out of town as the Red Wings start a rebuild, but luckily they haven’t committed to Mrazek long-term. If they decide he’s not the goaltender they thought he was, and in a year choose to go in a different direction he’ll be a hefty trade chip on the market. If he rebounds and shows them that this was just a blip on what will be an otherwise excellent career, they can then lock him into a longer deal.
For St. Louis though, they have to hitch their horse to Allen and hope he can pull them out of it. With another four-years after this dedicated to the former second-round pick, they basically don’t have any other choice.
John Tavares Open To Extension With Islanders
Talking to Christ Johnston of Sportsnet at the All-Star Game in Los Angeles, New York Islanders superstar John Tavares revealed that he would be open to an extension with the team this summer. The centerman has just one year remaining on his current deal, which pays him $5.5MM per season.
Since he entered the league there has been unsubstantiated rumors that Tavares would welcome a return to him hometown of Toronto, but just like a long list of players before him it doesn’t seem like there is any truth to the matter. Tavares has made it clear that he’s open to returning to the Islanders, saying he is “excited about where the organization is headed.”
The Islanders are an interesting case. After making it to the playoffs the past two seasons and even winning a round last year, the team let two of their top names leave in the latest round of free agency. Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen both signed big deals elsewhere (Buffalo and Detroit respectively) and join Tavares at the All-Star game festivities. In their wake, the team signed Andrew Ladd to a seven-year contract but has seen the winger put up the worst year of his career and be unable to find any chemistry with Tavares early on.
While they’ll be paying Ladd until 2023, the team needs to lock up Tavares to have any chance at staying relevant long-term. The 26-year old is having another excellent season, with 19 goals and 40 points through his first 47 games. Skating most with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey, Tavares just hasn’t been able to find the elite talent that could project him and the Islanders to the next level.
The team will have plenty of cap-room for an extension, with Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey and Jaroslav Halak all coming off the books that summer. Whether any of them are re-signed is still up for debate, but none of their play warrants a substantial amount of money going forward. Johnny Boychuk, signed for another five seasons after this with a cap hit of $6MM per, poses the biggest problem contract-wise for the Islanders, though they also will have a handful of restricted free agents to sign in the 2018 offseason.
Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16
The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.
Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline, but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.
February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.
Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.
While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.
Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.
Blues Notes: Allen, Bishop, Shattenkirk, Hunt
Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch conducted his weekly chat and understandably touched on several trade-related topics. It’s well worth a full read but here are the highlights.
- The Blues dealt goaltender Brian Elliott this past summer under the belief that Jake Allen was ready to be a full-time starter. It made sense in theory as the former second-round draft pick won 26 of his 44 starts and posted a GAA of 2.35 with a S% of 0.920. Unfortunately, Allen has struggled as the #1, allowing nearly 0.50 goals-per-60 more than he did in 2015-16 and stopping fewer than nine of every 10 shots on net. Rutherford feels that while Allen is certainly to blame for the soft goals he has allowed at times this season, the team in front of him simply isn’t good enough this year.
- Because of Allen’s struggles, some have suggested the team should look to acquire a proven starter with Ben Bishop‘s name surfacing as one possibility. In fact, one reader speculated on a possible Kevin Shattenkirk-for-Bishop swap since on the surface it addresses issues each team has. Rutherford pours cold water on that hypothetical scenario, however, citing uncertainty regarding whether Tampa Bay will be a buyer, seller or choose to stand pat at the deadline. Additionally, he questions whether the Lightning would be willing to pay a hefty price for a rental, assuming they remain either on the outside looking in or on the fringes of a playoff berth. It should also be noted that with several key RFA’s to re-sign next summer, it’s not likely that the Lightning would target a pending UFA with any notion of extending him beyond his current term, further diminishing the possibility GM Steve Yzerman engages the Blues in discussions for Shattenkirk.
- Speaking of Shattenkirk, Rutherford calculates the potential returns the Blues can expect if moving the skilled blue liner both as a rental and a sign-and-trade scenario where the acquiring team is allowed to negotiate an extension with the player. As a rental the scribe feels he can net the Blues a “pretty good prospect.” Even as part of a sign-and-trade, Rutherford is unsure whether the Blues would be able to attract offers including more than a “good player.” He reasons that teams would simply prefer to wait until Shattenkirk hits free agency as opposed to sacrificing valuable assets now. Either way, Shattenkirk is going to get paid and it might behoove teams to wait until the summer to make their move. Based on what significant rental players have cost acquiring teams in the past, Rutherford might be undervaluing Shattenkirk. Last year Carolina received a prospect and two draft choices for a couple months of Eric Staal. Winnipeg dealt Andrew Ladd and received a prospect (Marko Dano) and a first-round pick in return. Teams will pay steep prices for premium rentals. The real question, in my estimation at least, is whether St. Louis would be willing to move Shattenkirk for futures or if they will insist on receiving an NHL or NHL-ready contributor. If they have designs on competing for a Stanley Cup in the near future it’s more likely they’d prefer someone who can step in and play right away.
- Lastly, readers wanted to know why the Blues couldn’t find a trade partner for defenseman Brad Hunt rather than losing him for nothing on waivers. The undersized Hunt has been excellent in the AHL, netting 29 points in 23 games for the Chicago Wolves but as Rutherford points out, he has yet to see any game action since joining Nashville. Hunt also spent three years in the Edmonton organization, a team lacking NHL-quality defenders, yet saw nothing more than a cup of coffee with the Oilers. Could Hunt be an example of a player overlooked? Perhaps, but more likely he is what they refer to in baseball circles as a “4A” player; too good for the minors but not quite good enough to secure a permanent role in the big leagues.
Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class
As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.
Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.
While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P
You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.
Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P
Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.
Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P
Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?
Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA
The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.
Eric Nystrom Making A Comeback
The last word out of Eric Nystrom was that his NHL opportunities had dried up and he was considering retirement. The ten-year NHL veteran had been bought out by the Nashville Predators and cut from his preseason tryout deal with the St. Louis Blues, and could not find a contract – NHL, AHL, PTO or otherwise – in North America. He was considering joining his father, former NHLer Bobby Nystrom, in the insurance business. That was in early November; fast-forward to now and there has been no noise out of the Nystrom camp as no NHL teams have come calling due to injury and no foreign teams have lined up for his services. That is, until now.
Nystrom officially signed with the Oilers today (spoiler: link in Norwegian). No, not the Edmonton Oilers, but the Stavanger Oilers in Norway. Nystrom played with the team in 2012, prior to the resolution of the NHL lockout, and is now set to return. When Nystrom was there five years ago, the fans fell in love with him as he scored 14 points in just six games and dazzled the home crowd. The team is very excited to bring back not just a great talent, but also a “solid character” (translated from Norwegian). The Oilers currently sit atop the Norwegian Elite League, or “Get Ligaen” with 77 points, eight points ahead of their closest competitor. They also boast two of the league’s top three scorers in fellow Americans Mark Van Guilder and Dan Kissell, teammates at Notre Dame University in the mid-2000’s whose NCAA success didn’t translate to the pro game. However, Nystrom should step in and become the best player on the team and in the entire league right away, as the Stavanger Oilers appear poised to roll to a league championship.
Should Nystrom really impress in Norway, which in terms of international leagues is likely outside the top five in competition level, he might be able to get another shot at the NHL. He will have to really light it up, though. The tenth overall pick by the Calgary Flames in 2002, Nystrom had a long, successful career, but nowhere near the one expected of him with that selection. Nystrom made a living off of being a reliable bottom-six forward, capable of scoring 10-15 goals a year, but not much more. A hard-working, gritty player who excelled on the penalty kill and could hit and block shots, Nystrom’s value came in his two-way ability. He certainly is a “solid character” as well. However, aging defensive forwards are not at the top of NHL wish lists, and Nystrom is fresh off being bought out by Nashville after seeing his ice time cut and scoring just seven goals in 46 games last season. Unless Nystrom can change everyone’s minds with a strong offensive and defensive stint in Norway, his comeback may be limited to just the Stavanger Oilers. However, a great veteran leader with strong work ethic can often find a way.
Friedman’s Latest: Strome, Shattenkirk, Sharp, Filppula
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet published this week’s “30 Thoughts” column this morning and like always, it’s worth the read in its entirety. Of course the scribe touches on several trade-related topics as the calendar closes to within six weeks of the deadline. Here’s a rundown of some of the highlights from the column.
- An NHL executive evidently felt the Islanders were recently nearing a trade of Ryan Strome but the firing of Jack Capuano may have postponed the move. In the opinion of Friedman, Isles GM Garth Snow may elect to see how Strome responds to the coaching change before moving on from their 2011 first-round draft choice. Strome, who has only 14 points in 39 games this season, has struggled in each of the last two campaigns but did tally 50 points in 2014-15 as a 21-year-old sophomore. Prior to the season, Strome inked a two-year bridge deal with an AAV of $2.5MM. Given his potential and the additional year on his contract at an affordable rate, there would likely be a number of teams in the league with genuine interest in the 23-year-old forward, should the Islanders put him on the market.
- St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk, who is in the final year of his pact with the team, has frequently been mentioned in trade rumors going back to the 2016 draft. It’s thought the native of New Rochelle, New York, who grew up a New York Rangers fan, would ultimately choose to sign with a club on the east coast this summer as a free agent, with the Blue Shirts emerging as early favorites in that scenario. Also, it’s been reported that Shattenkirk derailed a potential offseason trade to Edmonton due to his reluctance to sign an extension with the Oilers, but Friedman wonders if he would consider a deadline deal to a playoff team in which he would see his role, and therefore potentially his free agent value, increase. Friedman mentions the Oilers and perhaps the Maple Leafs as teams who might pursue a player of Shattenkirk’s ilk as a rental to boost their postseason chances. The suggestion makes sense for the Blues as well, since the organization has fellow right-handed blue liners Colton Parayko and Alex Pietrangelo on hand to pick up the slack. St. Louis was also stung losing veterans David Backes and Troy Brouwer for nothing as free agents this past summer and may be unwilling to do the same in the case of Shattenkirk. Trading the skilled defender would allow them to add some young talent to the system while opening up additional salary cap space in the event they wish to chase forward reinforcements at the deadline.
- With Chicago reportedly searching for a top-six winger to slot next to star center Jonathan Toews, Friedman wonders whether the club will seek a reunion with Patrick Sharp. Sharp spent nine-plus seasons with the Hawks and was part of three Stanley Cup championship teams. His familiarity with the organization would seem to appeal to Chicago GM Stan Bowman as he searches the market for scoring depth. Additionally, Sharp is in the last year of his contract and qualifies as a pure rental; something the Blackhawks would likely value given their tight salary cap situation. Of course Sharp’s $5.9MM cap charge complicates matters for Chicago, as the club is currently slated to only have roughly $3.3MM in space at the deadline. It’s conceivable, however, that Dallas would be willing to retain enough salary to make the finances work, assuming the Blackhawks made it worthwhile to do so. Sharp’s season has been marred by concussion problems and he has just four goals on the season, though two came last night in Dallas’ wild 7 – 6 win over the New York Rangers. The Blackhawks could also entertain other rental options, such as Thomas Vanek of Detroit, who has 30 points in 33 games for Detroit and carries a cap charge of just $2.6MM.
- One unfortunate consequence of team success in the NHL is having to navigate through the resulting salary cap challenges as an organization’s younger contributors advance into free agency. Tampa Bay, who has appeared in the Eastern Conference Final in each of the past two seasons, is set to encounter that very problem this summer. Projected to have only about $12MM in cap space and with only 14 players under contract for next season, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is going to have his work cut out for him as he attempts to find common ground on new arrangements with pending RFA’s Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson. If the team has any hope of extending the trio, they will inevitably have to trade a high-salaried veteran to create the necessary salary cap flexibility. Friedman believes the Lightning might be best served by moving veteran forward Valtteri Filppula and his $5MM cap charge. Filppula, who has a partial NTC, might be appealing to other teams given his ability to slot in on the wing or at center. The veteran Finn has 29 points in 44 games for Tampa Bay and could provide versatility to any number of teams with the requisite cap space to add the 6-foot, 196-pound forward. Unless Tampa Bay is well out of the playoff chase by the deadline, it’s likely the team will hang onto Filppula through the end of the season and look to move him this summer when there may be more interested suitors.
What’s Next For The Islanders?
In the midst of a disappointing 2016-17 campaign, the New York Islanders made a change behind the bench yesterday, relieving Jack Capuano of his duties and turning the team over to AGM Doug Weight on an interim basis. The team has also received permission from the Florida Panthers to speak with their former head coach, Gerard Gallant, about taking the reins with the Isles on a full time basis. While the coaching change was surely made with the idea of sparking a second half playoff charge, it’s also quite possible this is just the first of several moves intended to get the Islanders back on the right track.
First and foremost, the goal for the Islanders will be to show superstar center John Tavares that the organization is fully committed to icing a competitive team around him. Tavares is eligible to become a free agent following the 2017-18 season and despite repeatedly stating his desire to remain with the organization that drafted him first overall in 2009, many in the industry feel that unless he views the Islanders as a legitimate contender, he’ll consider other options in free agency. That may pressure the front office into action, both at this year’s trade deadline and during the upcoming summer.
Assuming the new voice – whether Weight remains in charge for the duration of the campaign or the team hires another head coach such as Gallant – is unable to alter the team’s course ahead of the deadline, it’s conceivable the team will look to cash in veteran assets for controllable young talent and/or draft choices. Unfortunately the Islanders don’t possess much in the way of pending free agents that would appeal to other teams. Only Dennis Seidenberg, Stephen Gionta and Thomas Greiss are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the season and none represent the type of asset that would command a significant return in trade.
The team could look to this summer’s free agent class in an effort to improve the roster but with more than $61MM already committed to 19 players in 2017-18, there won’t be much room to do so. It’s also possible the Islanders will look to move a big salary to create needed roster flexibility but other teams simply won’t have much interest in taking on the contract of someone like Andrew Ladd, who has six years and $33MM left on his deal and has struggled with just eight goals and 12 points in 41 contests this season. Mikhail Grabovski, who has been out all season with post-concussion syndrome, and Nikolai Kulemin are also unlikely to generate much interest on the trade market. Dealing any other roster player would only serve to create another hole the Islanders would have to fill.
It’s also fair to wonder whether GM Garth Snow will be the team’s leading decision-maker for much longer. After all, his offseason moves this past summer have not worked out particularly well and new ownership may not be as committed to the longtime Islanders executive as was Charles Wang. Remember, it was Wang who abruptly fired Neil Smith just six weeks into his tenure as GM and hired Snow, then the team’s backup goaltender, back in 2009. It has been reported that the organization’s new leaders, Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin, have already been on the hunt for a “big name” executive to lead the team’s hockey operations department. The Islanders on-ice struggles could prompt ownership to transition away from Snow and bring in new leadership.
Clearly the Islanders organization has their work cut out for them and big decisions yet to make. The key question will be whether those decisions are enough to convince Tavares to sign on beyond the expiration of his current contract.
Head Coaches Potentially On The Hot Seat
As we pass the halfway point of the 2016-17 schedule, teams will soon have to make the sometimes difficult decision as to whether they are going to act as a buyer or seller ahead of the March 1st trade deadline. Additionally, teams that have underachieved their internal preseason expectations will take the time to look in the mirror and assess what they can do to improve their on-ice fortunes, both for the remainder of the current campaign and into the future. Sometimes that assessment leads to coaching changes.
Though just one bench boss has been relieved of his duties so far this season, several more could soon join Gerard Gallant on the unemployment line. In this post we’ll examine the situations of several coaches who would appear to be on the hot seat at this point in the 2016-17 season.
Jack Capuano (New York Islanders) – The Islanders have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, just one year after making it to the second-round of the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades. Currently residing in last place in the Metro Division and tied for the lowest points total in the East, the Islanders under Garth Snow have generally exercised patience with their head coach. In five full seasons behind the Islanders bench, Capuano has missed the postseason twice and has two first-round playoff defeats on his record. Other teams might have already pulled the plug on the coach. It’s not necessarily fair to assign all of the blame for the team’s underachievment this year on Capuano as Snow allowed two key players – Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen – to leave via free agency this past summer, and the players he inked to help replace them – Andrew Ladd and Jason Chimera – haven’t played well. Capuano has also had the unenviable task of trying to manage a three-headed monster in goal for much of the season until Jaroslav Halak was reassigned to Bridgeport after clearing waivers. With franchise player John Tavares nearing unrestricted free agency, the pressure to turn in a deep playoff run to help convince their captain to sign on long term has to be growing.
[Update: Capuano has been relieved of his coaching duties by the team.]
Dave Tippett (Arizona Coyotes) – It seems unlikely that just a year after being given more power and some influence over player personnel that the Coyotes would move on from their longtime head coach. Yet nonetheless, the struggles in Arizona will assuredly mean some changes are made and it’s always possible ownership in Arizona reverses course and moves on from Tippett. After all, it seems likely some improvement over their 78-point 2015-16 campaign was expected and with just 32 points to date, those improvements simply haven’t been there.
Paul Maurice (Winnipeg Jets) – The Jets certainly have talent in the form of Mark Scheifele, Dustin Byfuglien and Blake Wheeler – among others – but the team has been maddeningly inconsistent this year. Some observers believe the Jets have a tough time sticking to their system and structure and that doesn’t speak well of Maurice. But, the absence of a true number one goaltender is another one of the issues stifling the team’s success and that’s not the fault of the head coach. Maurice has also integrated a number of younger players into the linuep during his tenure in Manitoba, allowing management to get a better sense as to the real quality of their yong talent. Ownership in Winnipeg has a reputation of being patient when it comes to making decisions and will likely give the veteran coach another season to see what he can do.
Claude Julien (Boston Bruins) – The Bruins are currently in second place in the Atlantic and if they end up qualifying for the postseason, it’s likely the team refrains from making a change behind the bench. But three teams – Florida, Ottawa and Toronto – are just three points behind Boston in the standings and all have games-in-hand, meaning there is a real possibility the Bruins could miss the postseason tournament for the third consecutive season.
Vancouver bench boss Willie Desjardins, who has been thought to be on the hot seat for much of the season, would seem to be safe for the time being with the Canucks in the mix for a playoff berth.