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Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Pacific Notes: Ducks, Robinson, Schmalz

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The Anaheim Ducks face one of the tougher challenges when it comes to navigating through the upcoming expansion draft and that fact isn’t lost on GM Bob Murray.  He noted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that he has already had discussions and made offers to Golden Knights GM George McPhee about what type of sweetener it may take for him to not take the top player they leave exposed:

“There may be ways to do things with George where I can not affect too much.  Giving him something he may need. George is a very intelligent man, and I have a pretty good idea what he is going to try to do there. I can obviously help him with that a little bit.  “There’s certain players here there’s just no way I can afford to lose them.”

The Ducks have several high quality defenders that are worthy of protection that would undoubtedly draw interest from Vegas if left unprotected.  If they want to protect more than the standard three, that would force them to only protect a maximum of four forwards which would likely leave Jakob Silfverberg exposed and he too would surely be of interest to McPhee.  Murray certainly realizes the situation he’s in and now, it’s just a matter of trying to figure out what type of side deal it’s going to take to keep their core players intact beyond the expansion draft.

Elsewhere around the Pacific:

  • The Sharks have parted ways with director of player development Larry Robinson, reports Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette. The Hall of Fame blueliner had been with San Jose for the past five seasons in a couple of different roles, including associate coach.  Though he’s 66, he isn’t looking to retire just yet but wants a job that will allow him to be closer to his home in Florida on a more regular basis.  It’s unlikely that he’d return behind the bench but a role similar to the one he had in San Jose where he worked primarily with defensemen would certainly be a possibility.
  • The Kings have yet to decide if they will offer a contract to 2015 fifth rounder Matt Schmalz, notes Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider. They have until June 1st to sign the 21 year old winger or they lose his rights.  Schmalz doesn’t project to be a big scorer at the professional level but he stands 6’6 and has a nose for the net which could make him an intriguing bottom six forward.  Los Angeles has plenty of room on their 50 contract limit to get him signed as they have just 30 players signed so far for next season.

Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After finishing the 2015-16 season with 81 points (a 27 point increase on the previous year) a Stanley Cup-winning coach and a budding superstar who had scored 56 points as a teenager, the Buffalo Sabres felt pretty good about their future. So they went out and gave a 28-year old Kyle Okposo a seven-year, $42MM deal, traded for Dmitry Kulikov and held onto the off-ice troublemaker Evander Kane. It looked like they would compete for the playoffs this season, but the optimism wasn’t held for long.

Decimated by injury, the team couldn’t put it together even after Eichel’s mid-season return and would finish with just 78 points. They now head into this offseason with a much different outlook, clearing house and bringing in first-time GM (save for a short interim period in Pittsburgh) Jason Botterill to hire coaches for both the NHL and AHL clubs. They’ll pick eighth once again in this year’s entry draft and have quite a lot of picks in the first few rounds, though are looking to compete next season and catch up with the success that Edmonton and Toronto realized this season. In terms of expansion, they find themselves in a pretty good spot because many of their prized possessions are still ineligible for selection.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo (NMC), Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Kea, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson

Defensemen:

Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe, Justin Falk, Brady Austin

Goaltenders:

Robin Lehner, Linus Ullmark

Notable Exemptions

Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Nicholas Baptiste, C.J. Smith, Hudson Fasching, Brendan Guhle, Justin Bailey, Viktor Antipin

Key Decisions

The Sabres have no need to go with the eight skater route unless they make a move for a defenseman prior to the draft, and even then it would mean exposing some of their forwards for no reason. With Franson and Kulikov both headed to free agency, there isn’t a glut of defenders to protect this season. Their biggest decisions will be with the last couple of spots up front, for which there are some interesting candidates.

Obviously O’Reilly will be protected, as he’s likely the team’s second best forward and is still just entering his prime. Though the trade and contract hasn’t worked out exactly as Buffalo had hoped, the 26-year old is still an excellent center capable of competing among the elite players of the game. Okposo too will be protected, though his no-movement clause doesn’t give much chance otherwise. He had a scary bout in the hospital recently, but he is apparently on the road to recovery and should be ready for next season. Kane, for all his trouble outside of the rink is still an effective scoring threat inside of it and will be protected. Whether he starts next year in Buffalo may be another story, but the team won’t just give him away for free. Tyler Ennis

The interesting decisions come in the next few slots. It’s been two years now since Ennis was an effective scorer in the league, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. With just 24 points in 74 games combined over two seasons, his $4.6MM cap-hit looks incredibly high. There are only two more seasons on it, but like Moulson who is in a similar situation, Ennis just doesn’t produce at a high enough level anymore to warrant the deal. The Sabres could leave him available, or protect him and hope for a big bounce-back year in his age-28 season. Similar things could be said for Foligno and Girgensons, who still haven’t found that next level in their offensive production. They each are solid NHL players, and have room to grow but are both restricted free agents this summer and decisions will have to be made on their future with the club.

Among the other interesting young players are Larsson and Carrier, both of whom are second-round picks who have shown snippets of their potential as solid NHL contributors. Larsson missed most of this season due to injury, while Carrier made his NHL debut and stuck for 41 games. Perhaps Botterill believes that one of them has more to give offensively, or could be part of a shutdown line in the future. Vegas would certainly take a risk on either one as they’ve already shown they’re at least capable of staying in an NHL lineup.

Josh GorgesOn defense, there isn’t much to decide outside of perhaps what to do if Gorges is selected. It would be hard to see him earn a protection slot, but the veteran still did log valuable minutes for the Sabres this season. The 32-year old defensive specialist has just one year left on his contract, but could be part of a leadership group in Vegas should they decide he’s worth it.

In net, Lehner will be protected and given the reins to the team once again. Ullmark does pose an interesting option for Vegas, as he has actually posted a strong .913 save percentage in 21 NHL starts. At just 23 he’s ready to take on a bigger role and should spend most of the season in the NHL if Anders Nilsson isn’t retained this summer.

Speaking of Nilsson, he represents one of the possible free agent acquisitions that Vegas could sign prior to the draft if they choose. That would mean forfeiting their selection from Buffalo, but perhaps he or one of the free agent defensemen—Franson or Kulikov—would be worth it. Franson is still a good possession player with solid offensive upside, even if he does need sheltering at times from tough defensive matchups. With such a lack of right-handed shot defensemen on the market, perhaps he would be appealing to the young Vegas club. Giving up their selection from Buffalo would be tough though, and would need them to believe a bidding war of sorts would occur after July 1st—something that for any of the Sabres’ free agents would be hard to believe.

Projected Protection List

F Kyle Okposo (NMC)
F Ryan O’Reilly
F Evander Kane
F Zemgus Girgensons
F Marcus Foligno
F Johan Larsson
F William Carrier

D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Zach Bogosian
D Jake McCabe

G Robin Lehner

As Botterill continues to try and reshape the team into what he wants going forward, leaving exposed the big, underperforming cap-hits of Ennis and Moulson seems like the way to go, even if it does give up the chance of a bounce-back. A 27-year old, three-time 20-goal man would be tough to watch walk out the door, but the Golden Knights would almost certainly jump on Carrier or Larsson if left unprotected.

There is always a chance that the team moves Kane or another forward before the draft, opening up another slot for them to protect. Like many other teams that need defense though, acquiring one before the expansion draft from a worried club would put one of your own at risk. While Bogosian has been somewhat of a disappointment since he arrived from Winnipeg, giving him up for free seems a bit short-sighted. That means a deal for one of the surplus Anaheim defenders, or a Minnesota blueliner doesn’t seem in the cards in the next few weeks.

One thing to note is that newly signed Viktor Antipin is not eligible for the draft, despite his extensive experience in the KHL. The years of professional experience he gained in Russia don’t count towards the expansion draft requirements because he wasn’t playing them under an NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC). He’s a first year pro, and will be untouchable in the draft.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the New Jersey Devils swung one of the biggest deals of the offseason, trading young defenseman Adam Larsson to Edmonton for former first-overall pick Taylor Hall, it suggested that the team believed it could compete in the short term with a little more added offense. Hall cost more, was older and had fewer years left on his deal and the Devils were coming off a year in which they took a step forward and finished with 84 points.

While Larsson went on a deep playoff run with the Oilers, Hall struggled through a knee injury and saw the Devils take another step backwards, unable to do much offensively. The team finished with just 70 points, but as luck would have it were selected at the lottery and will pick first in the upcoming draft. The Devils now have some interesting choices to make in regards to the expansion draft, and decide whether to expose some of their aging veterans or keep them protected for another shot at it next season.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac, Mike Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Devante Smith-Pelly, Ben Thomson, Jacob Josefson, Stefan Noesen, Beau Bennett

Defensemen:

Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, Dalton Prout, Jon Merrill, Viktor Loov, Damon Severson

Goaltenders:

Cory Schneider, Scott Wedgewood

Notable Exemptions

Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, Michael McLeod, John Quenneville, Nick Lappin, Blake Speers, Nathan Bastian, Joseph Blandisi, Yohann Auvitu, Ilya Kovalchuk

Key Decisions

The Devils will almost certainly go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme for the expansion draft, as they can’t afford to lose any of their scoring threats up front. The decision will be whether to use a slot on some of their aging veterans, or protect some younger players who haven’t lived up to their potential yet. That decision likely rests with the idea of whether or not the front office believes they can compete next year. Mike Cammalleri

Up front, the trio of Hall, Henrique and Palmieri are all in their prime and ready to compete, while Zajac is still an effective player at age 32. All four will surely be protected, even if Zajac’s contract is starting to look like a little ugly—he’ll be paid $5.75MM through his age-35 season. After that, it becomes a little less clear. The team could protect Cammalleri and hope he rebounds next season to the effective scoring threat he has been his whole career, or use that slot on a younger winger like Bennett who showed that he’s a capable NHL forward. Getting rid of Cammalleri’s $5MM cap hit isn’t a bad thing, but the Devils also don’t need the room right now. They’re heading into the summer with well over $20MM in cap space before even factoring the few million the limit may rise by.

On defense, the team has the same problem. Protecting Greene, the much beloved captain and career Devil would cause the team to decide between Moore and Merrill both of whom showed the ability to at least contribute in a depth role on the blueline. That’s assuming of course that the team would protect Severson (they will) and expose Lovejoy, who logged nearly 21 minutes a night for the team. Greene and Lovejoy will play next season at 35 and 33 respectively, and have already started their decline. Protecting either of them would be a move directly tied to next season, instead of keeping the younger defensemen.

Cory SchneiderIn net, Schneider is one of the most secure netminders in the league despite his down year, though Wedgewood is a potential option for Vegas.The 24-year old netminder returned from injury and finished the season strong for Albany, and still looks like he may have an NHL role one day in the future.

On that note, the Devils still have several issues to deal with in terms of exposure requirements. Every team needs to expose at least one goaltender who is signed through, or has received a qualifying offer for next season. Wedgewood, as a restricted free agent would need to be qualified to be allowed to protect Schneider. Each team also needs to expose at least two forwards and one defender who is signed through 2017-18 and played at least 40 games this season or 70 the past two combined. Currently the Devils would need to expose two of Hall, Zajac, Cammalleri, Palmieri, Henrique and Smith-Pelly. Even just to give themselves other options, it’s likely that a player is extended in the next few weeks.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents from a team in loo of a selection from that club, but the only one who possibly would interest them is goaltender Keith Kinkaid. Outperforming Schneider at times this season, Kinkaid now has 56 NHL starts under his belt with a solid .912 save percentage. At just 27, he may eventually land a starting job somewhere but it would be surprising to see Vegas go after him seeing as they have several more experienced options available to them through the draft.

Projected Protection List

F Taylor Hall
F Travis Zajac
F Kyle Palmieri
F Adam Henrique
F Devante Smith-Pelly
F Jacob Josefson
F Beau Bennett

D Andy Greene
D John Moore
D Damon Severson

G Cory Schneider

With no no-movement clauses tying their hands, the Devils find themselves in a fine situation going into the expansion draft. They can carefully examine their players and see who they want moving forward. Is it a real rebuild, or just a reload for a quick turnaround? Would Vegas even take one of Cammalleri or Greene, with their hefty cap hits and advanced age? The team could also make a move for a forward before the draft, and decide to protect him instead. Ilya Kovalchuk

One thing to note is that Ilya Kovalchuk, expected to return to the NHL this summer at some point will not need protection. Kovalchuk currently sits on the Voluntary Retirement List, and cannot be officially reinstated until July 1st. As he’ll technically still be retired and out of the league, he won’t need protection. This is also true, though in a different manner, for Ryane Clowe, who will be exempt due to his career-ending injury. Clowe hasn’t played since 2014-15, and even though his deal technically has a no-movement clause he was listed as exempt among other former players like Chris Pronger and David Clarkson.

The Devils will have some tough decisions to make, but luckily they are all internal. The team won’t be forced to move anyone out in order to protect a young asset, instead just evaluating their immediate future to see if it’s worth hanging on to some aging stars.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Carolina Hurricanes Will Use Expansion Draft To Their Benefit

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Though the Carolina Hurricanes finished the season out of the playoffs once again, it’s clear that the team is on the rise. With a deep young defense corps, and an improving forward group, they could easily vault themselves into the postseason as soon as 2017-18. Now, because so many of their key players are young and ineligible for the expansion draft they plan on using the threat of Vegas to target some help up front. Luke DeCock of The News & Observer spoke to GM Ron Francis, who made it clear that he’s on the phones working to try and improve his club.

We’ve got the open for business sign out there. We’re in a unique situation with the amount of picks we have and the amount of prospects we have. It’ll be interesting. Really what it comes down to is what teams want: Do they want a player back for the asset they don’t have to protect or are they willing to take some picks and prospects?

When Francis refers to the number of picks he has, he’s speaking about the 10 picks the Hurricanes have in this summer’s entry draft, including six of the first 73 selections. Those picks, combined with prospects like Haydn Fleury, Julien Gauthier, Jake Bean, Warren Foegele, and the room the Hurricanes have to protect additional players in the expansion draft make them a perfect trade partner for teams afraid to lose someone for nothing.

The Hurricanes could easily dangle a prospect or ineligible player like Noah Hanifin in front of teams like the Rangers or Lightning who may be facing expansion draft issues up front.  Carolina clearly wants to upgrade their forward group, looking for both a top-line center and power winger to add for next season. They also could do nothing, and keep all of their assets for the draft floor and use them to move around and select the players they want. But with so much young talent already coming through, they could afford to move some of their prospect and draft pick capital to go after a big name or two in trade.

The Ducks’ Defensive Situation

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Coming off a Game 6 loss to the Nashville Predators, the Anaheim Ducks will now turn their attention to what should be an interesting off-season.

Former NHL player and TSN insider Ray Ferraro appeared on TSN 1260 on Wednesday afternoon; he called the Ducks’ loss “bitterly disappointing” considering the teams that were left. Ferraro believes that the Ducks’ window of contention is closed, saying “this was their year” to win.

Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Ryan Kesler will count for $23.75MM per season until 2021 (Kesler until 2022). All three men are 32, on the precipice of slowing down. Perry had a poor year this season, scoring just 19 goals in the regular season and four in the playoffs while shooting well-below his career average. ESPN’s Craig Custance suggested the Ducks explore trading Perry this summer. While the “nuclear option” could be difficult because of Perry’s high salary, he believes that teams would still be interested due to his experience and the expectation that he should score 30-plus goals next season.

The Ducks’ defense is much younger, however. The Ducks top-six defensemen are all under the age of 25. Despite Kevin Bieksa drawing back in the lineup over Shea Theodore late in the playoffs, the 35-year-old Bieksa is clearly the odd-man out in Anaheim. The Ducks will need to do something about the veteran, who has a $4MM price tag and a no-move clause. At the very minimum, he’ll need to be convinced to waive his NMC ahead of the expansion draft.

Hampus Lindholm and Cam Fowler are locks for protection, while Brandon Montour and Theodore are exempt. The Ducks will need to choose between Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson to protect with their third spot, provided they go 7-3-1. GM Bob Murray will look to make a trade to avoid losing a very good player for nothing. The team has six forwards that they want to protect, so a defenseman-for-forward swap would make a lot of sense. Custance suggests Jonathan Drouin as a potential target, as there have been reports that Tampa Bay is interested in moving him for a right-handed defenseman. Vatanen’s no-trade clause doesn’t kick in for another two years, which gives the Ducks some freedom.

Speaking of Fowler, he’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and will need to be extended. It’s a big change from last summer, where it was widely expected that he would be traded for offensive help. The venerable Elliotte Friedman from Sportsnet appeared on the NHL Network (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRag), and said a few NHL GMs that he spoke to believe Fowler would get seven years at $8MM. In that case, the Ducks have two choices: trade him, or try to get him to take a discount. Fowler has no clauses in his contract, so the Ducks would have free reign to trade him if it came to that. The latter option is very likely more appealing to Anaheim.

The Ducks’ young, skilled defense will give them options to boost their aging forward core; Murray will have to make some moves to keep his team’s Cup contention window open.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Vancouver Canucks head into this offseason with a goal unfamiliar to fans of the team: rebuild. It’s been 16 seasons since the Sedin twins made their debuts, and in that period the Canucks have made the playoffs 11 times. Now aged 36, the duo are on a rapid decline and will now try to help the team find a new set of core players. At the deadline, the Canucks sold for the first time in many years, sending Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows off for prospects.

Despite finishing second-last in the league, the team will select fifth in this year’s entry draft, thanks to the ping-pong balls at the draft lottery. Fifth was where they selected last year as well, picking Olli Juolevi from the OHL’s London Knights; the same place they unearthed budding-star Bo Horvat a few years prior. Now heading into the expansion draft they have few issues but many options, which will be examined below.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Daniel Sedin (NMC), Henrik Sedin (NMC), Loui Eriksson (NMC), Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Jayson Megna, Reid Boucher, Michael Zalewski, Joseph Cramarossa, Bo Horvat, Michael Chaput, Brendan Gaunce

Defensemen:

Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Andrey Pedan, Alex Biega, Tom Nilsson, Erik Gudbranson

Goaltenders:

Jacob Markstrom, Richard Bachman

Notable Exemptions

Jonathan Dahlen, Brock Boeser, Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin, Troy Stecher, Jordan Subban, Olli Juolevi, Griffen Molino, Thatcher Demko

Key Decisions

While it would be hard to imagine the Canucks exposing the Sedins in the expansion draft simply because of what they have meant to the franchise over their careers, the team won’t even have to worry about it. Both the twins and Eriksson have no-movement clauses and will automatically receive protection slots, leaving the team with just four forward choices. Brendan Gaunce

What that means is likely exposure of Gaunce, just a few years removed from being selected in the first round. Gaunce spent most of the season with the Canucks for the first time in his career, but still wasn’t able to contribute much offensively. Registering just five points in 57 games, he hasn’t been able to convert his size and hockey IQ into much scoring, though at just 23 he still has time.  Gaunce is the kind of player Vegas could very well target, hoping to find some upside in a young player that hasn’t shown it yet.

There is also Dorsett, who missed most of this season after neck surgery but has been an effective bottom-six player over his career. If he’s set to be healthy by next season he could bring a veteran voice to the young Vegas club, and protect any youngsters in the lineup. The Canucks actually may hope Dorsett is picked, just to rid themselves of his $2.65MM cap hit while they turn around their team.

On defense, the Canucks will have to choose between Sbisa and Gudbranson if they don’t make a trade before the draft. GM Jim Benning paid a hefty price to bring Gudbranson in, dealing Jared McCann for the former third-overall pick last summer. Gudbranson missed most of the season following wrist surgery and has been the whipping-boy for much of the analytical movement due to his poor possession numbers, but still represents a solid NHL defender with some upside.

Luca SbisaSbisa on the other hand logged 19 minutes a night and was one of only three players (along with the Sedins) to dress for every single game this season. He is a former first-round pick himself, but has never quite seemed to live up to the potential his excellent skating ability had showed early on. He’s two years older than Gudbranson, and is an unrestricted free agent after this season (Gudbranson is an RFA this summer).

In net, Markstrom will be the protected party as Miller is set to hit free agency. Markstrom’s new three-year extension kicks in this season and will pay him $3.67MM to be the Canucks’ starting goaltender. Whether he fills that role long-term is still yet to be decided, but there is no doubt he’ll come out of the expansion draft unscathed.

As far as free agents that Vegas could target in their early window, the Canucks don’t have much of interest. Miller is really the only one that has much value on the open market, and with the amount of goaltending options Vegas has available to them he doesn’t seem much of a fit.

Projected Protection List

F Daniel Sedin (NMC)
F Henrik Sedin (NMC)
F Loui Eriksson (NMC)
F Brandon Sutter
F Sven Baertschi
F Markus Granlund
F Bo Horvat

D Alexander Edler
D Chris Tanev
D Erik Gudbranson

G Jacob Markstrom

As always, there is the chance that Vancouver makes a deal to help out their situation before the draft, perhaps moving Tanev as has been rumored lately. They could also talk one of their older Swedes into waiving a no-movement clause in order to protect Gaunce or another forward, though that would put them at risk of selection as all three still have upside and name recognition. This might not be the worst outcome for the team in Eriksson’s case, after his disastrous season in the first year of his six-year, $36MM deal. He’ll turn 32 this summer, and likely won’t be much help to the team when they’re ready to compete again.

In all, the Canucks don’t find themselves in a horrible position, but losing one of Gaunce or Sbisa for nothing isn’t a perfect scenario. There are many ways they could avoid it, including making a side deal with Vegas to have them select a different player that may not be as beneficial. Vegas GM George McPhee has already admitted several teams have contacted him about this method, and he’s willing to listen if it provides his team with an asset.

This list could change drastically by next season, but with the majority of their young talent ineligible to be taken, the Canucks will continue their rebuild as planned this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Morning Notes: Boughner, Fowler, Colorado

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The Florida Panthers will interview Bob Boughner for their vacant head coaching position according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN. The team was given permission to talk to Boughner weeks ago, but will hold the interview at some point this week. The Panthers have been linked to Michel Therrien and Jim Montgomery in the past as well as assistants who may be still working in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

One of those would likely be Nashville Predators assistant Phil Housley, who is off to the finals to face the winner of the Pittsburgh-Ottawa series. It will be interesting to see if Florida will wait for the end of the playoffs to make a decision, as that would come just a few days before expansion and entry draft decisions would have to be made. While the head coach doesn’t make any of these decisions by himself, he’s often consulted and sometimes attends the scouting combine with the front office staff.

Poll: Which Team Will Be Next To Make Stanley Cup Debut?

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With a 6-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final last night, the Nashville Predators punched their ticket to the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup appearance. In fact, Nashville had never even advanced beyond the conference semifinals until this heroic run and now stand just four wins away from hosting the greatest trophy in sports.

A Stanley Cup berth has certainly been a long time coming for the NHL’s 27th franchise whose inaugural season took place in 1998. GM David Poile, who has been the man in charge through it all, did not qualify for the postseason for the team’s first five seasons of existence, but since 2003 the Predators have only missed the playoffs three times. With other 1990’s expansion or relocation teams having made the Final before, like the San Jose Sharks, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers, and even more having won a Stanley Cup, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anaheim Ducks, Colorado Avalanche, and Carolina Hurricanes, many would expect that the Predators may be the last team to accomplish the feat. However, there are four teams who have yet to make it to Stanley Cup Final, the Expansion Class of 2000 – the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, the current Winnipeg Jets, and the original Winnipeg Jets, now the Arizona Coyotes. Which of these teams will be the next to realize their dreams of playing in June?

The Minnesota Wild certainly seemed to be heading in that direction for much of this season as they had their way with the Western Conference. Although in a tough Central Division with the Cup-bound Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, and Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota is armed with a depth and talent at every position and showed (in the regular season) that they can fight through a tough schedule. The team was able to turn goaltender Devan Dubnyk into a star, has one of the strongest defensive cores in the NHL, and has a combination up front of strong veterans like Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, and Eric Staal and exciting young players like Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker and Charlie Coyle. However, everything fell apart when it mattered most, as the Wild were easily bounced in the first round by the Blues. Can the Wild bounce back and, with the aid of top prospects such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin, make a Stanley Cup appearance in the next few years?

The Columbus Blue Jackets will be racing them for that honor. Almost mirror images of each other in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets also surprised many by dominating the Eastern Conference early in the year. At the time, the New Year’s Eve match-up between Columbus and Minnesota, both on historic winning streaks, was even touted as the game of the year. The Blue Jackets too have a stellar goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky and deep group of talented defenseman, like young game-changers Zach Werenski and Seth Jones. However, where Columbus may edge out Minnesota is in their youth up front. Although similarly successful, the Jackets were able to reach 108 points to the Wild’s 106 with a much younger forward corps. The likes of Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg, Boone Jenner, and Josh Anderson, plus incoming talent like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand could keep Columbus in the running for a Cup longer than the Wild.

Speaking of youth, the Arizona Coyotes seem to be building something special in the desert. Question marks abound throughout the roster, such as starting goalie and a long-term partner for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and many don’t expect the Coyotes to be contenders for several more years. However, after the rapid ascent of the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs this season, fueled largely by under-21 talent, Arizona may be relevant sooner rather than later. Their best players are also their top prospects – Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun – and that’s just the beginning, as even better young talent is on its way in Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome, not to mention whoever they select with the 7th and 23rd overall picks this year. It seems inevitable that the Coyotes will be good down the road, and, regardless of whether it’s in Arizona or not, have a strong chance to host a Stanley Cup final. However, will that day come before the likes of Minnesota or Columbus can take advantage of their current success?

Finally, there’s the Winnipeg Jets. They weren’t a playoff team this year like Columbus or Minnesota and they aren’t armed with years worth of high draft picks like Arizona either. Yet, the Jets may actually be the dark horse to reach the Stanley Cup first. Winnipeg finished ninth in the Western Conference in 2016-17, tenth in 2015-16, and eighth in 2014-15, consistently hanging around as a fringe team, not truly competing for a title. That seems like it is about to change. The Jets have one of the more dangerous forward groups in the NHL with Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and captain Blake Wheeler leading the charge. They also have talented defenseman in Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, and Jacob Trouba. The Jets are a deeper team than many know and this season did not have a single player over the age of 32. Next year, they’ll add ace forwards Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic to the mix, and possibly goaltender Eric Comrie as well, all part of what The Hockey News called the top prospect system in the NHL. Given the wealth of talent on this team already, it seems strange they haven’t performed better. Throw some dynamic young players in and use some of the team’s ample cap space, and the Winnipeg Jets could be a breakout team in 2017-18.

What do you think?

Which Team Will Be Next To Make Stanley Cup Debut?
Columbus Blue Jackets 34.13% (228 votes)
Minnesota Wild 28.44% (190 votes)
Winnipeg Jets 17.81% (119 votes)
None - Vegas Golden Knights 11.53% (77 votes)
Arizona Coyotes 8.08% (54 votes)
Total Votes: 668

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