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Expansion Primer: Buffalo Sabres

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After finishing the 2015-16 season with 81 points (a 27 point increase on the previous year) a Stanley Cup-winning coach and a budding superstar who had scored 56 points as a teenager, the Buffalo Sabres felt pretty good about their future. So they went out and gave a 28-year old Kyle Okposo a seven-year, $42MM deal, traded for Dmitry Kulikov and held onto the off-ice troublemaker Evander Kane. It looked like they would compete for the playoffs this season, but the optimism wasn’t held for long.

Decimated by injury, the team couldn’t put it together even after Eichel’s mid-season return and would finish with just 78 points. They now head into this offseason with a much different outlook, clearing house and bringing in first-time GM (save for a short interim period in Pittsburgh) Jason Botterill to hire coaches for both the NHL and AHL clubs. They’ll pick eighth once again in this year’s entry draft and have quite a lot of picks in the first few rounds, though are looking to compete next season and catch up with the success that Edmonton and Toronto realized this season. In terms of expansion, they find themselves in a pretty good spot because many of their prized possessions are still ineligible for selection.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Ryan O’Reilly, Kyle Okposo (NMC), Evander Kane, Matt Moulson, Tyler Ennis, Nicolas Deslauriers, William Carrier, Zemgus Girgensons, Justin Kea, Marcus Foligno, Johan Larsson

Defensemen:

Rasmus Ristolainen, Zach Bogosian, Josh Gorges, Jake McCabe, Justin Falk, Brady Austin

Goaltenders:

Robin Lehner, Linus Ullmark

Notable Exemptions

Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Nicholas Baptiste, C.J. Smith, Hudson Fasching, Brendan Guhle, Justin Bailey, Viktor Antipin

Key Decisions

The Sabres have no need to go with the eight skater route unless they make a move for a defenseman prior to the draft, and even then it would mean exposing some of their forwards for no reason. With Franson and Kulikov both headed to free agency, there isn’t a glut of defenders to protect this season. Their biggest decisions will be with the last couple of spots up front, for which there are some interesting candidates.

Obviously O’Reilly will be protected, as he’s likely the team’s second best forward and is still just entering his prime. Though the trade and contract hasn’t worked out exactly as Buffalo had hoped, the 26-year old is still an excellent center capable of competing among the elite players of the game. Okposo too will be protected, though his no-movement clause doesn’t give much chance otherwise. He had a scary bout in the hospital recently, but he is apparently on the road to recovery and should be ready for next season. Kane, for all his trouble outside of the rink is still an effective scoring threat inside of it and will be protected. Whether he starts next year in Buffalo may be another story, but the team won’t just give him away for free. Tyler Ennis

The interesting decisions come in the next few slots. It’s been two years now since Ennis was an effective scorer in the league, dealing with injury and ineffectiveness throughout the year. With just 24 points in 74 games combined over two seasons, his $4.6MM cap-hit looks incredibly high. There are only two more seasons on it, but like Moulson who is in a similar situation, Ennis just doesn’t produce at a high enough level anymore to warrant the deal. The Sabres could leave him available, or protect him and hope for a big bounce-back year in his age-28 season. Similar things could be said for Foligno and Girgensons, who still haven’t found that next level in their offensive production. They each are solid NHL players, and have room to grow but are both restricted free agents this summer and decisions will have to be made on their future with the club.

Among the other interesting young players are Larsson and Carrier, both of whom are second-round picks who have shown snippets of their potential as solid NHL contributors. Larsson missed most of this season due to injury, while Carrier made his NHL debut and stuck for 41 games. Perhaps Botterill believes that one of them has more to give offensively, or could be part of a shutdown line in the future. Vegas would certainly take a risk on either one as they’ve already shown they’re at least capable of staying in an NHL lineup.

Josh GorgesOn defense, there isn’t much to decide outside of perhaps what to do if Gorges is selected. It would be hard to see him earn a protection slot, but the veteran still did log valuable minutes for the Sabres this season. The 32-year old defensive specialist has just one year left on his contract, but could be part of a leadership group in Vegas should they decide he’s worth it.

In net, Lehner will be protected and given the reins to the team once again. Ullmark does pose an interesting option for Vegas, as he has actually posted a strong .913 save percentage in 21 NHL starts. At just 23 he’s ready to take on a bigger role and should spend most of the season in the NHL if Anders Nilsson isn’t retained this summer.

Speaking of Nilsson, he represents one of the possible free agent acquisitions that Vegas could sign prior to the draft if they choose. That would mean forfeiting their selection from Buffalo, but perhaps he or one of the free agent defensemen—Franson or Kulikov—would be worth it. Franson is still a good possession player with solid offensive upside, even if he does need sheltering at times from tough defensive matchups. With such a lack of right-handed shot defensemen on the market, perhaps he would be appealing to the young Vegas club. Giving up their selection from Buffalo would be tough though, and would need them to believe a bidding war of sorts would occur after July 1st—something that for any of the Sabres’ free agents would be hard to believe.

Projected Protection List

F Kyle Okposo (NMC)
F Ryan O’Reilly
F Evander Kane
F Zemgus Girgensons
F Marcus Foligno
F Johan Larsson
F William Carrier

D Rasmus Ristolainen
D Zach Bogosian
D Jake McCabe

G Robin Lehner

As Botterill continues to try and reshape the team into what he wants going forward, leaving exposed the big, underperforming cap-hits of Ennis and Moulson seems like the way to go, even if it does give up the chance of a bounce-back. A 27-year old, three-time 20-goal man would be tough to watch walk out the door, but the Golden Knights would almost certainly jump on Carrier or Larsson if left unprotected.

There is always a chance that the team moves Kane or another forward before the draft, opening up another slot for them to protect. Like many other teams that need defense though, acquiring one before the expansion draft from a worried club would put one of your own at risk. While Bogosian has been somewhat of a disappointment since he arrived from Winnipeg, giving him up for free seems a bit short-sighted. That means a deal for one of the surplus Anaheim defenders, or a Minnesota blueliner doesn’t seem in the cards in the next few weeks.

One thing to note is that newly signed Viktor Antipin is not eligible for the draft, despite his extensive experience in the KHL. The years of professional experience he gained in Russia don’t count towards the expansion draft requirements because he wasn’t playing them under an NHL Standard Player Contract (SPC). He’s a first year pro, and will be untouchable in the draft.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Expansion Primer: New Jersey Devils

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the New Jersey Devils swung one of the biggest deals of the offseason, trading young defenseman Adam Larsson to Edmonton for former first-overall pick Taylor Hall, it suggested that the team believed it could compete in the short term with a little more added offense. Hall cost more, was older and had fewer years left on his deal and the Devils were coming off a year in which they took a step forward and finished with 84 points.

While Larsson went on a deep playoff run with the Oilers, Hall struggled through a knee injury and saw the Devils take another step backwards, unable to do much offensively. The team finished with just 70 points, but as luck would have it were selected at the lottery and will pick first in the upcoming draft. The Devils now have some interesting choices to make in regards to the expansion draft, and decide whether to expose some of their aging veterans or keep them protected for another shot at it next season.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Taylor Hall, Travis Zajac, Mike Cammalleri, Kyle Palmieri, Adam Henrique, Devante Smith-Pelly, Ben Thomson, Jacob Josefson, Stefan Noesen, Beau Bennett

Defensemen:

Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, John Moore, Dalton Prout, Jon Merrill, Viktor Loov, Damon Severson

Goaltenders:

Cory Schneider, Scott Wedgewood

Notable Exemptions

Miles Wood, Pavel Zacha, Michael McLeod, John Quenneville, Nick Lappin, Blake Speers, Nathan Bastian, Joseph Blandisi, Yohann Auvitu, Ilya Kovalchuk

Key Decisions

The Devils will almost certainly go with the 7-3-1 protection scheme for the expansion draft, as they can’t afford to lose any of their scoring threats up front. The decision will be whether to use a slot on some of their aging veterans, or protect some younger players who haven’t lived up to their potential yet. That decision likely rests with the idea of whether or not the front office believes they can compete next year. Mike Cammalleri

Up front, the trio of Hall, Henrique and Palmieri are all in their prime and ready to compete, while Zajac is still an effective player at age 32. All four will surely be protected, even if Zajac’s contract is starting to look like a little ugly—he’ll be paid $5.75MM through his age-35 season. After that, it becomes a little less clear. The team could protect Cammalleri and hope he rebounds next season to the effective scoring threat he has been his whole career, or use that slot on a younger winger like Bennett who showed that he’s a capable NHL forward. Getting rid of Cammalleri’s $5MM cap hit isn’t a bad thing, but the Devils also don’t need the room right now. They’re heading into the summer with well over $20MM in cap space before even factoring the few million the limit may rise by.

On defense, the team has the same problem. Protecting Greene, the much beloved captain and career Devil would cause the team to decide between Moore and Merrill both of whom showed the ability to at least contribute in a depth role on the blueline. That’s assuming of course that the team would protect Severson (they will) and expose Lovejoy, who logged nearly 21 minutes a night for the team. Greene and Lovejoy will play next season at 35 and 33 respectively, and have already started their decline. Protecting either of them would be a move directly tied to next season, instead of keeping the younger defensemen.

Cory SchneiderIn net, Schneider is one of the most secure netminders in the league despite his down year, though Wedgewood is a potential option for Vegas.The 24-year old netminder returned from injury and finished the season strong for Albany, and still looks like he may have an NHL role one day in the future.

On that note, the Devils still have several issues to deal with in terms of exposure requirements. Every team needs to expose at least one goaltender who is signed through, or has received a qualifying offer for next season. Wedgewood, as a restricted free agent would need to be qualified to be allowed to protect Schneider. Each team also needs to expose at least two forwards and one defender who is signed through 2017-18 and played at least 40 games this season or 70 the past two combined. Currently the Devils would need to expose two of Hall, Zajac, Cammalleri, Palmieri, Henrique and Smith-Pelly. Even just to give themselves other options, it’s likely that a player is extended in the next few weeks.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents from a team in loo of a selection from that club, but the only one who possibly would interest them is goaltender Keith Kinkaid. Outperforming Schneider at times this season, Kinkaid now has 56 NHL starts under his belt with a solid .912 save percentage. At just 27, he may eventually land a starting job somewhere but it would be surprising to see Vegas go after him seeing as they have several more experienced options available to them through the draft.

Projected Protection List

F Taylor Hall
F Travis Zajac
F Kyle Palmieri
F Adam Henrique
F Devante Smith-Pelly
F Jacob Josefson
F Beau Bennett

D Andy Greene
D John Moore
D Damon Severson

G Cory Schneider

With no no-movement clauses tying their hands, the Devils find themselves in a fine situation going into the expansion draft. They can carefully examine their players and see who they want moving forward. Is it a real rebuild, or just a reload for a quick turnaround? Would Vegas even take one of Cammalleri or Greene, with their hefty cap hits and advanced age? The team could also make a move for a forward before the draft, and decide to protect him instead. Ilya Kovalchuk

One thing to note is that Ilya Kovalchuk, expected to return to the NHL this summer at some point will not need protection. Kovalchuk currently sits on the Voluntary Retirement List, and cannot be officially reinstated until July 1st. As he’ll technically still be retired and out of the league, he won’t need protection. This is also true, though in a different manner, for Ryane Clowe, who will be exempt due to his career-ending injury. Clowe hasn’t played since 2014-15, and even though his deal technically has a no-movement clause he was listed as exempt among other former players like Chris Pronger and David Clarkson.

The Devils will have some tough decisions to make, but luckily they are all internal. The team won’t be forced to move anyone out in order to protect a young asset, instead just evaluating their immediate future to see if it’s worth hanging on to some aging stars.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Carolina Hurricanes Will Use Expansion Draft To Their Benefit

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Though the Carolina Hurricanes finished the season out of the playoffs once again, it’s clear that the team is on the rise. With a deep young defense corps, and an improving forward group, they could easily vault themselves into the postseason as soon as 2017-18. Now, because so many of their key players are young and ineligible for the expansion draft they plan on using the threat of Vegas to target some help up front. Luke DeCock of The News & Observer spoke to GM Ron Francis, who made it clear that he’s on the phones working to try and improve his club.

We’ve got the open for business sign out there. We’re in a unique situation with the amount of picks we have and the amount of prospects we have. It’ll be interesting. Really what it comes down to is what teams want: Do they want a player back for the asset they don’t have to protect or are they willing to take some picks and prospects?

When Francis refers to the number of picks he has, he’s speaking about the 10 picks the Hurricanes have in this summer’s entry draft, including six of the first 73 selections. Those picks, combined with prospects like Haydn Fleury, Julien Gauthier, Jake Bean, Warren Foegele, and the room the Hurricanes have to protect additional players in the expansion draft make them a perfect trade partner for teams afraid to lose someone for nothing.

The Hurricanes could easily dangle a prospect or ineligible player like Noah Hanifin in front of teams like the Rangers or Lightning who may be facing expansion draft issues up front.  Carolina clearly wants to upgrade their forward group, looking for both a top-line center and power winger to add for next season. They also could do nothing, and keep all of their assets for the draft floor and use them to move around and select the players they want. But with so much young talent already coming through, they could afford to move some of their prospect and draft pick capital to go after a big name or two in trade.

The Ducks’ Defensive Situation

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Coming off a Game 6 loss to the Nashville Predators, the Anaheim Ducks will now turn their attention to what should be an interesting off-season.

Former NHL player and TSN insider Ray Ferraro appeared on TSN 1260 on Wednesday afternoon; he called the Ducks’ loss “bitterly disappointing” considering the teams that were left. Ferraro believes that the Ducks’ window of contention is closed, saying “this was their year” to win.

Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Ryan Kesler will count for $23.75MM per season until 2021 (Kesler until 2022). All three men are 32, on the precipice of slowing down. Perry had a poor year this season, scoring just 19 goals in the regular season and four in the playoffs while shooting well-below his career average. ESPN’s Craig Custance suggested the Ducks explore trading Perry this summer. While the “nuclear option” could be difficult because of Perry’s high salary, he believes that teams would still be interested due to his experience and the expectation that he should score 30-plus goals next season.

The Ducks’ defense is much younger, however. The Ducks top-six defensemen are all under the age of 25. Despite Kevin Bieksa drawing back in the lineup over Shea Theodore late in the playoffs, the 35-year-old Bieksa is clearly the odd-man out in Anaheim. The Ducks will need to do something about the veteran, who has a $4MM price tag and a no-move clause. At the very minimum, he’ll need to be convinced to waive his NMC ahead of the expansion draft.

Hampus Lindholm and Cam Fowler are locks for protection, while Brandon Montour and Theodore are exempt. The Ducks will need to choose between Sami Vatanen and Josh Manson to protect with their third spot, provided they go 7-3-1. GM Bob Murray will look to make a trade to avoid losing a very good player for nothing. The team has six forwards that they want to protect, so a defenseman-for-forward swap would make a lot of sense. Custance suggests Jonathan Drouin as a potential target, as there have been reports that Tampa Bay is interested in moving him for a right-handed defenseman. Vatanen’s no-trade clause doesn’t kick in for another two years, which gives the Ducks some freedom.

Speaking of Fowler, he’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and will need to be extended. It’s a big change from last summer, where it was widely expected that he would be traded for offensive help. The venerable Elliotte Friedman from Sportsnet appeared on the NHL Network (transcribed by Chris Nichols of FanRag), and said a few NHL GMs that he spoke to believe Fowler would get seven years at $8MM. In that case, the Ducks have two choices: trade him, or try to get him to take a discount. Fowler has no clauses in his contract, so the Ducks would have free reign to trade him if it came to that. The latter option is very likely more appealing to Anaheim.

The Ducks’ young, skilled defense will give them options to boost their aging forward core; Murray will have to make some moves to keep his team’s Cup contention window open.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Vancouver Canucks head into this offseason with a goal unfamiliar to fans of the team: rebuild. It’s been 16 seasons since the Sedin twins made their debuts, and in that period the Canucks have made the playoffs 11 times. Now aged 36, the duo are on a rapid decline and will now try to help the team find a new set of core players. At the deadline, the Canucks sold for the first time in many years, sending Jannik Hansen and Alex Burrows off for prospects.

Despite finishing second-last in the league, the team will select fifth in this year’s entry draft, thanks to the ping-pong balls at the draft lottery. Fifth was where they selected last year as well, picking Olli Juolevi from the OHL’s London Knights; the same place they unearthed budding-star Bo Horvat a few years prior. Now heading into the expansion draft they have few issues but many options, which will be examined below.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Daniel Sedin (NMC), Henrik Sedin (NMC), Loui Eriksson (NMC), Brandon Sutter, Derek Dorsett, Sven Baertschi, Markus Granlund, Jayson Megna, Reid Boucher, Michael Zalewski, Joseph Cramarossa, Bo Horvat, Michael Chaput, Brendan Gaunce

Defensemen:

Alexander Edler, Chris Tanev, Luca Sbisa, Andrey Pedan, Alex Biega, Tom Nilsson, Erik Gudbranson

Goaltenders:

Jacob Markstrom, Richard Bachman

Notable Exemptions

Jonathan Dahlen, Brock Boeser, Jake Virtanen, Nikolay Goldobin, Troy Stecher, Jordan Subban, Olli Juolevi, Griffen Molino, Thatcher Demko

Key Decisions

While it would be hard to imagine the Canucks exposing the Sedins in the expansion draft simply because of what they have meant to the franchise over their careers, the team won’t even have to worry about it. Both the twins and Eriksson have no-movement clauses and will automatically receive protection slots, leaving the team with just four forward choices. Brendan Gaunce

What that means is likely exposure of Gaunce, just a few years removed from being selected in the first round. Gaunce spent most of the season with the Canucks for the first time in his career, but still wasn’t able to contribute much offensively. Registering just five points in 57 games, he hasn’t been able to convert his size and hockey IQ into much scoring, though at just 23 he still has time.  Gaunce is the kind of player Vegas could very well target, hoping to find some upside in a young player that hasn’t shown it yet.

There is also Dorsett, who missed most of this season after neck surgery but has been an effective bottom-six player over his career. If he’s set to be healthy by next season he could bring a veteran voice to the young Vegas club, and protect any youngsters in the lineup. The Canucks actually may hope Dorsett is picked, just to rid themselves of his $2.65MM cap hit while they turn around their team.

On defense, the Canucks will have to choose between Sbisa and Gudbranson if they don’t make a trade before the draft. GM Jim Benning paid a hefty price to bring Gudbranson in, dealing Jared McCann for the former third-overall pick last summer. Gudbranson missed most of the season following wrist surgery and has been the whipping-boy for much of the analytical movement due to his poor possession numbers, but still represents a solid NHL defender with some upside.

Luca SbisaSbisa on the other hand logged 19 minutes a night and was one of only three players (along with the Sedins) to dress for every single game this season. He is a former first-round pick himself, but has never quite seemed to live up to the potential his excellent skating ability had showed early on. He’s two years older than Gudbranson, and is an unrestricted free agent after this season (Gudbranson is an RFA this summer).

In net, Markstrom will be the protected party as Miller is set to hit free agency. Markstrom’s new three-year extension kicks in this season and will pay him $3.67MM to be the Canucks’ starting goaltender. Whether he fills that role long-term is still yet to be decided, but there is no doubt he’ll come out of the expansion draft unscathed.

As far as free agents that Vegas could target in their early window, the Canucks don’t have much of interest. Miller is really the only one that has much value on the open market, and with the amount of goaltending options Vegas has available to them he doesn’t seem much of a fit.

Projected Protection List

F Daniel Sedin (NMC)
F Henrik Sedin (NMC)
F Loui Eriksson (NMC)
F Brandon Sutter
F Sven Baertschi
F Markus Granlund
F Bo Horvat

D Alexander Edler
D Chris Tanev
D Erik Gudbranson

G Jacob Markstrom

As always, there is the chance that Vancouver makes a deal to help out their situation before the draft, perhaps moving Tanev as has been rumored lately. They could also talk one of their older Swedes into waiving a no-movement clause in order to protect Gaunce or another forward, though that would put them at risk of selection as all three still have upside and name recognition. This might not be the worst outcome for the team in Eriksson’s case, after his disastrous season in the first year of his six-year, $36MM deal. He’ll turn 32 this summer, and likely won’t be much help to the team when they’re ready to compete again.

In all, the Canucks don’t find themselves in a horrible position, but losing one of Gaunce or Sbisa for nothing isn’t a perfect scenario. There are many ways they could avoid it, including making a side deal with Vegas to have them select a different player that may not be as beneficial. Vegas GM George McPhee has already admitted several teams have contacted him about this method, and he’s willing to listen if it provides his team with an asset.

This list could change drastically by next season, but with the majority of their young talent ineligible to be taken, the Canucks will continue their rebuild as planned this summer.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Morning Notes: Boughner, Fowler, Colorado

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The Florida Panthers will interview Bob Boughner for their vacant head coaching position according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN. The team was given permission to talk to Boughner weeks ago, but will hold the interview at some point this week. The Panthers have been linked to Michel Therrien and Jim Montgomery in the past as well as assistants who may be still working in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

One of those would likely be Nashville Predators assistant Phil Housley, who is off to the finals to face the winner of the Pittsburgh-Ottawa series. It will be interesting to see if Florida will wait for the end of the playoffs to make a decision, as that would come just a few days before expansion and entry draft decisions would have to be made. While the head coach doesn’t make any of these decisions by himself, he’s often consulted and sometimes attends the scouting combine with the front office staff.

Poll: Which Team Will Be Next To Make Stanley Cup Debut?

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With a 6-3 win over the Anaheim Ducks in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final last night, the Nashville Predators punched their ticket to the franchise’s first ever Stanley Cup appearance. In fact, Nashville had never even advanced beyond the conference semifinals until this heroic run and now stand just four wins away from hosting the greatest trophy in sports.

A Stanley Cup berth has certainly been a long time coming for the NHL’s 27th franchise whose inaugural season took place in 1998. GM David Poile, who has been the man in charge through it all, did not qualify for the postseason for the team’s first five seasons of existence, but since 2003 the Predators have only missed the playoffs three times. With other 1990’s expansion or relocation teams having made the Final before, like the San Jose Sharks, Ottawa Senators, and Florida Panthers, and even more having won a Stanley Cup, including the Tampa Bay Lightning, Anaheim Ducks, Colorado Avalanche, and Carolina Hurricanes, many would expect that the Predators may be the last team to accomplish the feat. However, there are four teams who have yet to make it to Stanley Cup Final, the Expansion Class of 2000 – the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets, the current Winnipeg Jets, and the original Winnipeg Jets, now the Arizona Coyotes. Which of these teams will be the next to realize their dreams of playing in June?

The Minnesota Wild certainly seemed to be heading in that direction for much of this season as they had their way with the Western Conference. Although in a tough Central Division with the Cup-bound Predators, Chicago Blackhawks, St. Louis Blues, and Winnipeg Jets, Minnesota is armed with a depth and talent at every position and showed (in the regular season) that they can fight through a tough schedule. The team was able to turn goaltender Devan Dubnyk into a star, has one of the strongest defensive cores in the NHL, and has a combination up front of strong veterans like Mikko Koivu, Zach Parise, and Eric Staal and exciting young players like Mikael Granlund, Jason Zucker and Charlie Coyle. However, everything fell apart when it mattered most, as the Wild were easily bounced in the first round by the Blues. Can the Wild bounce back and, with the aid of top prospects such as Joel Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin, make a Stanley Cup appearance in the next few years?

The Columbus Blue Jackets will be racing them for that honor. Almost mirror images of each other in 2016-17, the Blue Jackets also surprised many by dominating the Eastern Conference early in the year. At the time, the New Year’s Eve match-up between Columbus and Minnesota, both on historic winning streaks, was even touted as the game of the year. The Blue Jackets too have a stellar goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky and deep group of talented defenseman, like young game-changers Zach Werenski and Seth Jones. However, where Columbus may edge out Minnesota is in their youth up front. Although similarly successful, the Jackets were able to reach 108 points to the Wild’s 106 with a much younger forward corps. The likes of Brandon Saad, Alexander Wennberg, Boone Jenner, and Josh Anderson, plus incoming talent like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Oliver Bjorkstrand could keep Columbus in the running for a Cup longer than the Wild.

Speaking of youth, the Arizona Coyotes seem to be building something special in the desert. Question marks abound throughout the roster, such as starting goalie and a long-term partner for Oliver Ekman-Larsson, and many don’t expect the Coyotes to be contenders for several more years. However, after the rapid ascent of the Edmonton Oilers and Toronto Maple Leafs this season, fueled largely by under-21 talent, Arizona may be relevant sooner rather than later. Their best players are also their top prospects – Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Brendan Perlini, Jakob Chychrun – and that’s just the beginning, as even better young talent is on its way in Clayton Keller and Dylan Strome, not to mention whoever they select with the 7th and 23rd overall picks this year. It seems inevitable that the Coyotes will be good down the road, and, regardless of whether it’s in Arizona or not, have a strong chance to host a Stanley Cup final. However, will that day come before the likes of Minnesota or Columbus can take advantage of their current success?

Finally, there’s the Winnipeg Jets. They weren’t a playoff team this year like Columbus or Minnesota and they aren’t armed with years worth of high draft picks like Arizona either. Yet, the Jets may actually be the dark horse to reach the Stanley Cup first. Winnipeg finished ninth in the Western Conference in 2016-17, tenth in 2015-16, and eighth in 2014-15, consistently hanging around as a fringe team, not truly competing for a title. That seems like it is about to change. The Jets have one of the more dangerous forward groups in the NHL with Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers, and captain Blake Wheeler leading the charge. They also have talented defenseman in Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, and Jacob Trouba. The Jets are a deeper team than many know and this season did not have a single player over the age of 32. Next year, they’ll add ace forwards Kyle Connor and Jack Roslovic to the mix, and possibly goaltender Eric Comrie as well, all part of what The Hockey News called the top prospect system in the NHL. Given the wealth of talent on this team already, it seems strange they haven’t performed better. Throw some dynamic young players in and use some of the team’s ample cap space, and the Winnipeg Jets could be a breakout team in 2017-18.

What do you think?

Expansion Primer: Arizona Coyotes

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After going to the playoffs three consecutive years from 2010-12 the Arizona Coyotes have taken a sharp downturn in recent years, culminating in another disappointing season in 2016-17. They finished in 28th place with just 70 points, and unfortunately dropped all the way to seventh in the upcoming draft. Since most of their impressive assets are still very young, the team shouldn’t have much trouble protecting their future in the upcoming expansion draft. They do however have some interesting names that may be taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder, Brad Richardson, Josh Jooris, Mitchell Moroz, Tyler Gaudet, Peter Holland, Brandan Troock, Jeremy Morin, Jordan Martinook, Alexander Burmistrov, Anthony Duclair, Teemu Pulkkinen

Defensemen:

Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Alex Goligoski (NMC), Connor Murphy, Luke Schenn, Kevin Connauton

Goaltenders:

Mike Smith, Louis Domingue

Notable Exemptions

Clayton Keller, Dylan Strome, Max Domi, Christian Dvorak, Lawson Crouse, Christian Fischer, Jakob Chychrun, Anthony DeAngelo, Brendan Perlini, Nick Merkley

Key Decisions

Like the Colorado Avalanche who we profiled yesterday, the Coyotes have more than enough protection slots to go around up front. Unlike the Avalanche though, who have a tough situation on defense the Coyotes will more than likely use the 7-3-1 method, allowing them to protect all of their valuable contracts.

Up front, the Coyotes amazingly have just three players signed for next season who are eligible to be taken, though several other restricted free agents will warrant protection. With seven slots, they actually have enough to even acquire another player or two without putting anything of true value at risk. Holland, Martinook, and Jooris all have shown various levels of upside in their NHL time, while others like Pulkkinen have performed well at the AHL level.

Because of the extremely few veterans signed for next season, the Coyotes actually still have some work to do. Each team needs to expose at least two forwards who are under contract for 2017-18 and played in at least 40 games this season of 70 the past two. McGinn, Rieder and Richardson are the only three who are signed, meaning another player will need a contract before the draft happens. Jooris is the most likely for this, as he doesn’t project as one of their current protected forwards but does fill the requirement. "<strong

On defense the biggest loss would likely be Schenn, the former fifth-overall pick who is now on his fourth organization without ever living up to the shut-down billing he had coming out of the WHL. If the team was worried that Vegas might take him—and there is definitely a chance the team would, seeing as he is a cheap 27-year old with more than 600 games under his belt already—and they really didn’t want that, they could go with the eight skaters method and protect four defensemen, though it seems very unlikely.

In net, Smith is a near-lock to be protected after the team refused to discuss him at the deadline despite his excellent season. GM John Chayka had this to say at the time:

We’re trying to grow, and he’s a key cog of that growth for us. Wayne Gretzky was traded.  At the same time, [Smith’s] an important piece for our organization. There’s no discussion on him.

That does make Domingue an interesting option for Vegas, as the former fifth-round pick has turned in two solid seasons in part-time duty. While he doesn’t have the same immediate upside of Antti Raanta or Philipp Grubauer (two goaltenders who may also be exposed), Domingue is only 25 and costs just over $1MM for next season.

"<strongIt’s important to note that Dave Bolland, Craig Cunningham and Chris Pronger, all of whom are technically still on the Arizona payroll are exempt from the draft due to their career-ending injuries. Pronger has in fact already been inducted to the Hall of Fame, and currently works for the Department of Player Safety. Pavel Datsyuk, whose rights were acquired at the draft last year is also on the books and has a no-movement clause, but will not need protection because of his expiring cap-hit and status as a retired player.

Vegas will have a chance to speak to the pending free agents for the Coyotes like any other team, and there is the possibility they could go after Radim Vrbata instead of any exposed player. Vrbata had a solid season in the desert, leading the Coyotes with 55 points. At 35 he’s clearly past his prime, but for a team that will severely lack scoring ability he may be an interesting option. Shane Doan is also a free agent as of this moment, but it seems unlikely that he would go to Vegas for the end of his career—if it’s not over already—after making it clear he only wanted a trade to a potential Stanley Cup contender at the deadline.

Projected Protection List

F Jamie McGinn
F Tobias Rieder
F Peter Holland
F Jordan Martinook
F Alexander Burmistrov
F Anthony Duclair
F Teemu Pulkkinen

D Alex Goligoski (NMC)
D Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D Connor Murphy

G Mike Smith

In all, the Coyotes sit in outstanding shape going into the expansion draft without much to lose. Since all of their highly-touted assets are still too young to be eligible, they’ve actually put themselves in a situation to acquire a player or two before the draft from a team in a worse situation.

Though they aren’t likely to compete next season, they could easily add young players to their core this summer to make their team substantially better. Like the acquisition of Crouse last summer in exchange for Bolland’s contract, or the draft-finagling to move up and get Chychrun, Chayka and the Coyotes front office is headed in the right direction. It would be surprising to not see them take advantage of their protection slots and ample cap space again over the next few weeks.

While this list reflects the roster as it is today, it could clearly change as the team makes the decision on who to extend or a deal to bring someone in. As it sits, Schenn or Domingue look like the toughest losses, which won’t really inspire much excitement among Golden Knights fans.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Expansion Primer: Colorado Avalanche

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 with one of the worst records in recent memory, winning just 22 games and seeing just a single player reach the 20-goal mark. As if their year could get any worse, they fell three spots in the draft lottery and will be required like everyone else to give up a player to the incoming Vegas Golden Knights.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Nathan MacKinnon, Matt Duchene, Gabriel Landeskog, Carl Soderberg, Joe Colborne, Blake Comeau, Troy Bourke, Mikhail Grigorenko, Samuel Henley, Sven Andrighetto, Matthew Nieto, Rocco Grimaldi, Felix Girard, Mike Sislo, Turner Elson

Defensemen:

Erik Johnson (NMC), Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin (NMC), Mark Barberio, Eric Gelinas, Duncan Siemens, Patrick Wiercioch, Nikita Zadorov

Goaltenders:

Semyon Varlamov, Calvin Pickard

Notable Exemptions

J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, A.J. Greer, Andrei Mironov, Chris Bigras

Key Decisions

The Avalanche are in an enviable position when it comes to forwards, where many of their core pieces are still exempt due to the rebuilding nature of the club. It’s not so rosy on defence though, as both Johnson and Beauchemin hold no-movement clauses and thus require protection. Should the team be able to convince one of them—namely Beauchemin, since Johnson still at least represents some trade value—to waive their clause, they could use the 7-3-1 protection format. Otherwise they’ll likely have to go with the eight skater route or risk losing one of Zadorov or Barrie.

That would leave them with just four slots up front which isn’t ideal, but at least could protect the future and biggest trade pieces. That is assuming they don’t move Duchene or Landeskog before the draft, which would open up another spot for a younger player like Grimaldi or Andrighetto. Another option would be a buyout once the first window opens on June 15th, though Beauchemin—the most likely recipient—signed his latest contract after he turned 35 and thus the Avalanche would incur the whole $4.5MM cap hit next season regardless. Calvin Pickard

In net there sits the team’s most important decision. Whether or not to protect Varlamov or Pickard has been much debated, with reports coming out previously that the team will keep the former. After two solid seasons backing up, Pickard struggled at times in the increased role this year when Varlamov went down to injury. That’s not to say the young goaltender doesn’t have a bright future as he recently showed, backstopping Team Canada to a silver medal in the recent World Championships. He was given player of the game honors for Canada in their 2-1 shootout loss to Team Sweden in the gold medal game, and recorded a .938 save percentage in the tournament.

From each team, Vegas is also given the opportunity to talk to pending free agents before the draft. If they should come to an agreement with one, they would forfeit their selection from his former team. The Avalanche don’t really have any UFA targets that would be of much interest, though perhaps 25-year old Brendan Ranford provides some. The Group VI free agent has only played a single game in the NHL, but has proven to be a successful AHL scorer. If for some reason the Golden Knights believe they won’t be able to sign him—or any of the Avalanche UFAs—after July 1st, they could forego their selection entirely.

Projected Protection List

F Nathan MacKinnon
F Matt Duchene
F Gabriel Landeskog
F Mikhail Grigorenko

D Erik Johnson (NMC)
D Francois Beauchemin (NMC)
D Tyson Barrie
D Nikita Zadorov

G Semyon Varlamov

While Colorado is one of the most likely teams to make a move before the deadline, this is how the protection list currently projects for them. The Avalanche could also make a deal with the Golden Knights to take a player like Soderberg off their hands, who suffered an inexplicable drop-off in effectiveness this season. With three more seasons on his current contract, his $4.75MM cap hit is certainly one the Avalanche would love to rid themselves of as they continue their rebuild.

In all, Pickard looks like the worst loss the Avalanche could incur at this point and with several weeks still before the draft they may be able to solve that issue. The Golden Knights should have their fair share of goaltenders available to them, many of which they may feel more comfortable drafting. The Avalanche will continue to look forward with their group of “untouchables” which includes MacKinnon, Rantanen and Jost, each of whom are at no risk of being selected.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod

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Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.

T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.

On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.

On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Scott Darling’s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
  • The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.”  McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.

 

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