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NHL Announces Transaction Freeze During Expansion Window

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The NHL has announced that they will put a hold on any waivers, trades or signings from June 17th at 2pm to June 22 at 7am (all times CDT). That would encompass the entire window that the Vegas Golden Knights have to select their expansion roster. Team’s protection lists must be submitted by 4pm on June 17th, while the team will be announced at the NHL Awards Ceremony on June 21st.

June 12th will be the final day for teams to ask players whether they will waive their no-movement clause for the draft, with decisions needing to come by 4pm on the 16th.

This window will put all eyes on the Vegas Golden Knights as they select the first expansion roster in nearly two decades. When the protection lists will be released to the public on the morning of the 18th, fans and media alike will begin to build their own team not knowing of any behind-the-scenes dealing that may already have happened.

The full release can be found below:

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Snapshots: Miller, Weal, Vegas

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According to Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Sun, the Canucks are expecting to re-sign Ryan Miller at some point before next season. GM Jim Benning hinted at such an extension recently when he explained that having solid goaltending is a big part of developing young players. Allowing them to know that they have a chance each night is beneficial even if the team doesn’t have intentions on competing for the Stanley Cup.

If Vancouver is so certain that they can re-sign Miller, they would likely wait until after the expansion draft and take their chances with any pitch Vegas may have for him. While the Golden Knights will have three days to try and convince any free agents to sign with them, inking Miller to an extension and then leaving him unprotected would be even more risky for the Canucks.

  • Pierre LeBrun has been sitting down with GMs all week at the Draft Combine, and the venerable insider has a few more notes to pass along. First, he reports that Jordan Weal’s agent met with Philadelphia GM Ron Hextall today. Despite being just 25, Weal will hit the open market on July 1st as a Group VI free agent if they don’t find common ground. The third-round pick has a ton of scoring ability and has dominated the AHL level since entering professional hockey. In 23 games with the Flyers this year, he registered 12 points and showed he may be ready for the next level.
  • In his chats, LeBrun also has heard that Vegas may be able to get a first-round pick in exchange for taking on a bad contract from a team in the league. Earlier today there was a report that the Golden Knights would be allowed to select Trevor van Riemsdyk from the Blackhawks in return for taking Marcus Kruger off their hands, and this is no different. The Golden Knights will likely have plenty of side deals for some bad contracts as they look to collect as many assets as possible in their first few years.

Expansion Primer: Carolina Hurricanes

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Going into the 2016-17 season, more people thought that the Carolina Hurricanes would be the worst team in the NHL than thought they would be a playoff team. Yet, the exciting, young ’Canes squad stayed in it until the end, only falling out of playoff contention in the final few games of the season. It was a completely unexpected performance from a team still lacking any major stars, but showed that their youthful nucleus can succeed without them.

Luckily for Carolina fans, perhaps no team in the NHL has a better chance of escaping the upcoming Expansion Draft unscathed than the Hurricanes. Not only does the teams youth protect many of their best players from being draft-eligible, but the team is in fact so young, that there are very few players total that can be exposed. With the league’s deepest young defense almost entirely intact with Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin and pro prospects Haydn Fleury and Roland McKeown ineligible – each with two or fewer NHL seasons –  and star rookie Sebastian Aho also immune, the Hurricanes can use the rest of their protection slots to cover all their other important players and then some.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jordan Staal (NMC), Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, Lee Stempniak, Joakim Nordstrom, Andrej Nestrasil, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Karlsson, Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brock McGinn

Defense
Justin Faulk, Klas Dahlbeck, Ryan Murphy, Trevor Carrick

Goaltender
Scott Darling, Cam Ward, Eddie Lack, Daniel Altshuller

Notable Exemptions

Sebastian Aho, Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, Noah Hanifin, Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, Derek Ryan

Key Decisions

The ’Canes have few decisions to make here. Up front, captain Jordan Staal must be protected due to his No-Movement Clause and his supporting cast of young scorers – Jeff Skinner, Victor Rask, Elias Lindholm, and Teuvo Teravainen – will surely join him. With 16 points in 57 games in 2016-17, 22-year-old Brock McGinn has also likely earned his spot on the team. This leaves one forward spot spot left, as Carolina will almost certainly use the 7/3 protection scheme. The odd men out will probably be consummate veteran Lee Stempniak and two-way forward Joakim Nordstrom, who took a step back this season anyway. Those two are the only remaining players that meet the two-forward exposure quota of players with 70 games played over the past two years or 40 games played this past season that also have term remaining on their contracts. Should the Hurricanes want to protect either one, they still have the option of extending restricted free agents Andrej Nestrasil or Phillip Di Giuseppe or impending UFA Jay McClement in the coming weeks, as the trio are only short on term to qualify for the quota. If they choose not to, the choice comes down to Nestrasil, Di Giuseppe, or minor league winger Erik Karlsson for the final spot, with little on the line.

On the blue line the choice is even easier. By re-signing Klas Dahlbeck recently, the Hurricanes secured their sacrificial lamb for Expansion. Dahlbeck qualifies to be exposed in accordance with the quota for one defenseman, taking All-Star Justin Faulk off the hook. Young defenseman Ryan Murphy and Trevor Carrick are literally the only other defenseman in need of protection with exactly two defensive spots open to do so.

In net, the decision has already been made. The Hurricanes secured their goalie of the future earlier this month, trading for former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling and giving him a four-year, $16.6MM deal. In doing so, Carolina also guaranteed that he would be their protected goalie in the draft, as they would not waste their time with such an investment just to let Darling be drafted away to Vegas. Instead, they’ll let the Golden Knights have their pick of long-time starter Cam Ward, high-end backup Eddie Lack, and prospect keeper Daniel Altshuller. With over $10MM tied up in Darling, Ward, and Lack next season, the Hurricanes hope the Knights take the bait, but even if they don’t, both Ward and Lack will be free agents next summer anyway.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jordan Staal (NMC)
Jeff Skinner
Victor Rask
Elias Lindholm
Teuvo Teravainen
Brock McGinn
Phillip Di Giuseppe

Defensemen

Justin Faulk
Ryan Murphy
Trevor Carrick

Goalie

Scott Darling

What is the worst case scenario for the Hurricanes? They could lose Stempniak and be left with over $10MM in goalies. That’s pretty much it. Yes, Stempniak scored 40 points last season, but he’s also 33 years old and has just one year left on his contract. The Hurricanes could replace him in free agency with ease. They also could simply re-sign another forward and protect him if they really want to. As for the goalie, Ward is a lifetime Hurricane and outplayed Lack by a slim margin last year. It really would not be all that bad to have him as a backup to first-time starter Darling next season. GM Ron Francis could surely sweeten a deal (if necessary) to have Vegas take Lack and, if not, should be able to find another suitor elsewhere.

If Stempniak does end up off the board though, is there really any other option for the Knights beyond goalie? At forward, Di Giuseppe gets the nod for the last protection slot over Nestrasil and Karlsson. Nestrasil is already on the outs in Carolina and Di Giuseppe has already passed him up on the depth chart. Karlsson has signed on to return to Sweden next season and will have no impact on the 2017-18 Hurricanes. Carolina is deep enough in prospects, such as Julien Gauthier, Nicolas Roy, Janne Kuokkanen, Warren Foegele, Aleksi Saarela and more that they can risk losing Karlsson without risking losing any sleep over it. On defense, Dahlbeck is the only contracted player that can be taken. While he did play in 43 games with Carolina last season, GM George McPhee will have plenty of quality defenseman to choose from in the Expansion Draft, and Dahlbeck simply doesn’t stand out as worth taking. The Hurricanes are so well protected from the wrath of the expansion process that even unrestricted free agent center Derek Ryan, who quietly put up 29 points in 2016-17 to the tune of $600K, is also exempt from selection, having come over from Europe just two years ago. Goalie seems to be the only real option and even if Altshuller is the pick, he is far from a promising prospect and not at the top of the Hurricanes’ prospect rankings in net. The Knights have few options when selecting a player from Carolina and none of them pose any threat to a team that is on the rise.

Expansion Primer: Los Angeles Kings

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

It was a tough year for the Los Angeles Kings. After bouncing back in 2015-16 with an 102-point season, the squad collapsed this year after early goaltending injuries and a decisive lack of speed from the forward group. After a nice early season return from the old Dustin Brown, he scored just nine points in his final 26 games and again looks like a buyout candidate. Marian Gaborik scored just 21 points all year, and Anze Kopitar had just three goals through the first 35 games (and only 12 on the season).

Despite all that they added at the trade deadline, dealing for Jarome Iginla and Ben Bishop to try and sneak into the playoffs. They missed, and with it the coaching staff and front office were cleared out. New GM Rob Blake is in charge now, and the Kings will be looking for a fresh start. They will select 11th in the entry draft, but first have some decisions to make in the upcoming expansion draft.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Anze Kopitar (NMC), Dustin Brown, Jeff Carter, Marian Gaborik, Tanner Pearson, Trevor Lewis, Kyle Clifford, Jordan Nolan, Nic Dowd, Andrew Crescenzi, Andy Andreoff, Nick Shore, Justin Auger, Michael Mersch, Tyler Toffoli

Defensemen:

Drew Doughty, Alec Martinez, Jake Muzzin, Matt Greene, Brayden McNabb, Derek Forbort, Kurtis MacDermid

Goaltenders:

Jonathan Quick, Jeff Zatkoff, Jack Campbell

Notable Exemptions

Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Jonny Brodzinski, Kale Clague, Mike Amadio

Key Decisions

The first, and biggest decision the Los Angeles Kings must make is which protection scheme to use. Each team can protect either 7 forwards, 3 defenseman and 1 goaltender (7-3-1) or eight skaters and one goaltender (8-1). Even though the Kings didn’t have much success this season, doesn’t mean they don’t have a lot of players they’d like to protect. The trouble with being a team on the downside of such a run of success, is that most of your key contributors aren’t young enough to be exempt from the expansion draft. Nick Shore

Up front, the team will undoubtedly protect their veteran leadership in Kopitar and Carter, and their young talent in Toffoli and Pearson. If they decide to go with the 7-3-1 route, that leaves them with three spots left to hand out protection to some combination of the other forwards that include Lewis, Clifford, Shore, and Dowd. Even though Brown and Gaborik could be solid marketing options for Vegas as former stars, the contracts attached to both are basically built-in protection.

The problem with going the 7-3-1 route, and why it’s likely the toughest decision the Kings will have to make, is that it would result in the exposure of McNabb and Forbort. Though the previous Kings regime has never really allowed him to play a key role in their blueline, McNabb has elite possession numbers and could easily be a target for a more analytical-leaning Vegas squad. Forbort on the other hand played in all 82 games for the Kings this season, logging over 20 minutes a night attached to the hip of Doughty.

Brayden McNabbBoth McNabb and Forbort are young enough (26 and 25 respectively) to make an impact for several years in Vegas, and for a team like Los Angeles looking to rebuild losing them for nothing would be a mistake. That said, Doughty, Muzzin and Martinez would all easily be the pick if left unprotected and going with the 8-1 protection scheme would put several forwards at risk (and only give one additional protection slot on the back end).

In net, Quick is going to be protected and there isn’t much debate on that fact. The franchise goaltender missed almost the entire 2016-17 season, but is still an excellent starting option and locked in long-term. Campbell could be interesting to Vegas after a renaissance in the AHL this season but with so many other options from the team will likely be an afterthought.

Vegas will have a chance to sign any free agents during their selection window, and today George McPhee said they would be “very aggressive” in doing so. It’s hard to see it coming into effect for the Kings though, as the only real free agent of note is Iginla who isn’t worth forfeiting a selection over.

Projected Protection List

F Anze Kopitar (NMC)
F Jeff Carter
F Tanner Pearson
F Tyler Toffoli

D Drew Doughty
D Alec Martinez
D Jake Muzzin
D Derek Forbort

G Jonathan Quick Marian Gaborik

It’s not a perfect option for the Kings, as they will watch a valuable player walk out the door during the expansion draft if they don’t make a move to protect themselves. They seem like the perfect candidate to work out a pre-draft trade with Vegas in order to take one of their hefty contracts off their hands and allow them some freedom to rebuild over the next few years.

The same way the team was looking to move Gaborik at the deadline, they now may offer an asset up for Vegas to take him off their hands. The problem is that Vegas holds all the cards (sorry), as there isn’t a clear path for Los Angeles to get out of this that doesn’t involve dealing with George McPhee and the Golden Knights.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Vegas Golden Knights Expect To Acquire Additional Draft Picks

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Going into their very first entry draft, the Vegas Golden Knights currently have just seven selections. It doesn’t sound like they will make just seven picks though, as GM George McPhee told Pierre LeBrun in a recent interview. George McPhee

Yeah we’re expecting to have more [picks]. Just in the conversations we’ve had to date, it looks like we’ll be able to pick up some picks—and good ones.

McPhee went on to say that he hopes to be able to announce some deals next week, confirming that he does have some side-dealing already in place surrounding the expansion draft. Obviously the Golden Knights don’t have any players to trade, and moving draft picks out of the system isn’t likely. That means the deals are expected to be teams basically trading an asset in order to protect the players they want in the draft.

We want to be a real competitive club, we want to be as good as we can, but we also have to be mindful that we’d like to be in a surplus situation here in the next two or three drafts where we have extra picks. Our best players are going to have to come through the entry draft. I don’t think we’re going to get our best players through the expansion draft.

The Golden Knights’ GM seems to be thinking right along the lines of many in the media who have claimed that the available players will be extremely short on high-end skill. While there should be some talented two-way defenders and a couple of legitimate starting goaltenders, top line forwards are almost completely unavailable.

Especially because the Golden Knights fell out of the first few picks in the entry draft this year (though they’ll pick third in rounds 2-7), high-end talent will need to come from a bit lower in the draft this season. Getting more picks increases your chances to hit an explosive talent, though it is still not guaranteed.

McPhee also touched on the free agent window his team will be granted starting on June 18th,  saying that he would be “aggressive” to try and sign talent. The team could sign any unrestricted free agent or unprotected restricted free agent, though it would forfeit its expansion pick from that team in the process. Remember that teams will be holding off on re-signing their free agents until after the draft because they can’t afford to have to protect them, giving McPhee a chance to change their mind. It’s not clear who they would go after, but again the idea of skilled forwards comes up if the team wants to compete right away.

Snapshots: Bennett, Ryan, Housley

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One of the interesting nuggets from Elliotte Friedman’s latest “30 Thoughts” column for Sportsnet was that the Anaheim Ducks may have some interest in Calgary Flames’ underperforming Sam Bennett. While he didn’t go into detail on it in the column, he was asked about it today on Sportsnet 960 in Calgary.

I’ve heard that the Ducks like Sam Bennett. I’ve heard there’s people in that organization who like him. So I could see the possibility of something being there. But if you look at [Ducks GM] Bob Murray’s history, he’s done two deals with Vancouver. [Ryan] Kesler and [Kevin] Bieksa. He did one with Edmonton.  Patrick Maroon. The rest of his deals are all East: Bobby Ryan to Ottawa. Frederik Andersen to Toronto.  James Wisniewski to Carolina. Kyle Palmieri to New Jersey. He prefers to send guys out East.

Friedman does admit again that the Ducks would be interested in Bennett, but throws cold water on the whole idea saying that Murray wouldn’t want his defenseman “torturing him” for the next few seasons. It is interesting though that the Ducks would have interest in Bennett, who has had trouble at the center ice position and struggled to contribute offensively this year. Perhaps they would convert him to a winger, something that Calgary will need to consider once again going into next season.

  • As we wrote about earlier today, Ottawa Senators forward Bobby Ryan may have pushed himself back into the discussion about expansion protection with his standout playoffs. Jared Clinton of The Hockey News doesn’t think so though as he lists Ryan among his players that have built-in protection due to their cap hits. Ryan himself thinks he’s “pretty safe”, telling the media that he doesn’t think Vegas would want his $7.25MM cap-hit. Ryan currently has a no-movement clause of sorts, but it is not the same as say, Dion Phaneuf’s clause that will force him to be protected should he not waive it. Ryan is not on the list of automatic protection, as his clause only stops movement to the minors. He doesn’t need to waive it to be exposed.
  • Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinal reported yesterday that the Florida Panthers are indeed waiting for Phil Housley to finish his current run with the Nashville Predators before interviewing him for the vacant head coaching job. Panthers’ GM Dale Tallon would need to get permission from the Predators to talk to their assistant head coach, but most organizations don’t stand in the way as long as it is a promotion. Housley has been with the Predators for four years, and is considered a lock for a future head coaching job. The Hall of Fame defenseman put up 1232 points in 1495 games and is one of the greatest American-born players of all-time.

Craig Anderson Will Be Protected From Expansion Draft

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Though it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion confirmed today that Craig Anderson will be the goalie protected for the team in the upcoming expansion draft. With Mike Condon set to become an unrestricted free agent, that means the Golden Knights will get a chance to negotiate with him prior to the draft, and also puts into question whether the Senators will look to retain him on a longer-term contract after the season. Anderson has just a single year left on his contract, but at 36 was one of the biggest reasons the Senators reached game 7 of the Eastern Conference final.

While protecting Anderson seems like the obvious choice after his excellent season—the veteran goaltender put up a .926 save percentage despite his personal issues—Condon looks more like the future in Ottawa should they be able to sign him. Dorion mentioned during his press conference that if they can’t sign Condon (which would confirm that they’re trying to) that Andrew Hammond could be in as the backup to Anderson, and though Hammond had a Cinderella-like run when his career started, he had a terrible season fighting injury and is already 29-years old. Dorion admits talks with Condon haven’t gone well so far, but that he will speak to his agent next week.

In terms of other players being protected, Dorion was less forthcoming. He put it simply:

We’re going to lose a player. That’s part of the deal. Las Vegas payed a lot of money to get in this league, and that’s part of the deal. Are you mad about it? No. That’s part of the deal. We’ve got enough depth that I don’t see any radical changes to this team.

There has been much speculation about the possibility of Bobby Ryan being exposed, though when Ian Mendes of TSN asked if Dorion had changed his mind during the playoffs about certain players, the GM said that they have to take everything into account. Ryan exploded in the playoffs after a dreadful season, turning into one of the team’s best forwards. After scoring just 25 points in the regular season, Ryan put up 15 in the Senators’ 19 playoff games and may have done enough to warrant protection once again. Supremely talented, Ryan has the biggest cap-hit on the team and is signed through the 2021-22 season.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne Gostisbehere, T.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Pacific Notes: Ducks, Robinson, Schmalz

at CDT | by Leave a Comment

The Anaheim Ducks face one of the tougher challenges when it comes to navigating through the upcoming expansion draft and that fact isn’t lost on GM Bob Murray.  He noted to Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register that he has already had discussions and made offers to Golden Knights GM George McPhee about what type of sweetener it may take for him to not take the top player they leave exposed:

“There may be ways to do things with George where I can not affect too much.  Giving him something he may need. George is a very intelligent man, and I have a pretty good idea what he is going to try to do there. I can obviously help him with that a little bit.  “There’s certain players here there’s just no way I can afford to lose them.”

The Ducks have several high quality defenders that are worthy of protection that would undoubtedly draw interest from Vegas if left unprotected.  If they want to protect more than the standard three, that would force them to only protect a maximum of four forwards which would likely leave Jakob Silfverberg exposed and he too would surely be of interest to McPhee.  Murray certainly realizes the situation he’s in and now, it’s just a matter of trying to figure out what type of side deal it’s going to take to keep their core players intact beyond the expansion draft.

Elsewhere around the Pacific:

  • The Sharks have parted ways with director of player development Larry Robinson, reports Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette. The Hall of Fame blueliner had been with San Jose for the past five seasons in a couple of different roles, including associate coach.  Though he’s 66, he isn’t looking to retire just yet but wants a job that will allow him to be closer to his home in Florida on a more regular basis.  It’s unlikely that he’d return behind the bench but a role similar to the one he had in San Jose where he worked primarily with defensemen would certainly be a possibility.
  • The Kings have yet to decide if they will offer a contract to 2015 fifth rounder Matt Schmalz, notes Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider. They have until June 1st to sign the 21 year old winger or they lose his rights.  Schmalz doesn’t project to be a big scorer at the professional level but he stands 6’6 and has a nose for the net which could make him an intriguing bottom six forward.  Los Angeles has plenty of room on their 50 contract limit to get him signed as they have just 30 players signed so far for next season.

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