Expansion

Expansion Primer: Detroit Red Wings

June 15, 2017 at 8:47 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

We’re continuing to break down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, coming up next week: which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

Missing the playoffs for only the first time in 25 years, the Detroit Red Wings plan on rebuilding but still keeping the playoffs in their sights. Detroit is in an interesting situation as they hold a slew of draft picks, and a number of contracts they could expose, giving some relief if one is taken.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar (RFA), Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Riley Sheahan, Luke Glendening, Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou (RFA), Frans Nielsen (NMC),

Defensemen:

Mike Green, Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser, Niklas Kronwall, Nick Jensen, Xavier Ouellet (RFA).

Goaltender:

Jimmy Howard, Petr Mrazek, Jared Coreau

Notable Exemptions

Dylan Larkin, Johan Franzen.

Key Decisions

One of the chief reasons the Red Wings have lost their footing as a contender is not only a lack of high draft picks, but some disastrous decisions when it came to handing out contracts. Though I have written about this before, it bears repeating that under general manager Ken Holland, the Red Wings will always be loyal and choose to, as Holland always says, “draft and develop” before looking elsewhere for help. This is a key point to keep in mind as decisions are to be made. One of the biggest knocks on Holland is that he falls in love with his players–especially those he drafted.

One of the simplest ways Detroit could get salary cap room would be by protecting those who are absolutely necessary and allowing several high priced players to be exposed. Holland stipulated that he will be going with the 7-3-1 format when it comes to keeping players, and that will allow for some higher priced players to be exposed. Additionally, Holland has made it clear he will not part with draft picks in order to move contracts. Options, then, are aplenty.

Henrik Zetterberg will be protected because of his role as captain, and the all but guaranteed moment of his number hanging from the rafters. Barring some sort of crazy change, Zetterberg will be protected.

Riley Sheahan is a curious case. Sheahan struggled mightily, scoring two goals all season, both coming in the final game of the year. Still young and only a $2M cap hit, he could be snapped up. Sheahan has to be due for a bounce back, and with a hodgepodge of new talent and a fresh start in Vegas, it could be a boon for him professionally. It’s a risk the Wings have to look at, being that the bounce back could also occur in Hockeytown.

Abdelkader is also an interesting case. He is owed a lot of money ($4.25MM AAV) through 2023, and hasn’t produced to justify the expense. But this is where Holland’s loyalty comes in. It’s highly unlikely Vegas would take him at that hit for the next six years while the Red Wings are believed to be grooming Abdelkader as the next captain of the team. Expect Abdelkader to be on the protected list. But rolling the dice and putting Abdelkader out there would not only allow them to hold onto a cheaper player who seems prone for a bounce back, but also provides the chance of getting significant cap relief should Abdelkader be selected.

Darren Helm and Luke Glendening at this point are role players who both hold higher cap hits ($3.85MM and $1.8MM respectively). Helm has traditionally been a third line center while Glendening spends the majority of his time on the fourth. They should both be exposed.

Finally, a quirk in CBA wording made Anthony Mantha eligible for the expansion draft. Holland will have no choice but to include him on the list. Detroit blog Winging It In Motown did a great job of breaking down the verbiage in the CBA that makes Mantha eligible.

Projected Protection List

F – Henrik Zetterberg
F – Anthony Mantha
F – Andreas Athanasiou
F – Frans Nielsen (NMC)
F – Justin Abdelkader
F – Tomas Tatar
F – Gustav Nyquist

D – Mike Green
D – Xavier Ouellet
D – Danny DeKeyser

G – Petr Mrazek

The goalie situation is another precarious case for the Wings, as Mrazek, who was anointed the starter last year, struggled to gain form and saw Howard take over the top spot until injury caught up with him. Coreau just backstopped the Grand Rapids Griffins to a Calder Cup trophy and comes very cheap as an NHL backup, especially with little NHL experience to his name. The choice here would have to be Mrazek, as Howard has only a couple years left and can rarely stay healthy enough to maintain a #1 job. Youth and Mrazek’s potential are reasons to protect him. The Czech netminder has flashes of brilliance and should Detroit restock with a stalwart defense and supportive scoring, it’s not out of the question that Mrazek could be one of the best in the league.

On defense, the Wings will protect both Green and DeKeyser, the latter who they re-signed to a large deal that was panned by many, especially after DeKeyser sputtered last season. Still relatively young at 27, the Wings are trying to find a #1 or 2 defenseman that would ease the pressure on DeKeyser. The real question comes in at who to protect after that. The loyalty piece of Holland could put Kronwall on the list of protected because of his time in Detroit. The 36-year-old defenseman has been lauded for his leadership abilities as well. But that leaves a number of young talent exposed, namely Ouellet, and Jensen. The better bet is that Kronwall will be exposed, and the Wings will protect Ouellet over Jensen. Their numbers were similar this season, but Ouellet, just about three years younger than Jensen, seems the smarter choice to place on the protected list. It is highly unlikely that Kronwall will be taken, being that he experienced a major dip in play last season due to a nagging knee injury. His mobility and skating ability isn’t close to what it once was.

The takeaway with the Red Wings is that they are truly a team in transition. Their building blocks for nearly a decade are aging, they have question marks in net, and defensively, there is no clear cut number one or number two defensemen. While they don’t have a lot to lose in terms of talent, Holland will most likely defer to youth rather than loyalty when making his final choices.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Thursday Trade Talk: Dumba, Brodin, Galchenyuk, Hjalmarsson

June 15, 2017 at 7:36 pm CDT | by natebrown 3 Comments

The Minnesota Wild find themselves the center of trade speculation, with Matt Dumba and Jonas Brodin headlining the rumors according to the Star Tribune’s Michael Russo. Wild general manager Chuck Fletcher has received “quality trade offers” revolving around Dumba and Brodin. It’s no secret that the Wild have difficult decisions to make before they make their final choices for the expansion list. According to Russo, it’s prudent to deal either Dumba or Brodin since Jared Spurgeon and Ryan Suter will take up two of the three slots for protected defenseman. Instead of losing one for nothing, Fletcher is listening in on trade offers, and one such team Russo sees as being targeted is Montreal. The player they’re most likely targeting? Alex Galchenyuk.

TSN’s Ken Campbell writes that with the Canadiens acquiring Jonathan Drouin today, it likely means that Galchenyuk “won’t be back” in Montreal next season. Campbell adds that Galchenyuk is actively being shopped and Campbell figures that the target will be a young defenseman. With Carey Price in need of an extension, and the Montreal brass wanting to avoid “drama” in getting that extension, Galchenyuk would fetch the young d-man that would entice Price to stay and also fill a need for the Canadiens.
The Chicago Tribune’s Chris Hine goes through a number of players who have been the subject of trade rumors. On the issue of Marcus Kruger, Hine writes that the veteran center is “all but gone” and that defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk is all but certain to join him with Vegas being the likely destination. Kruger would be dealt while van Riemsdyk would be selected in the draft. Regarding a core player who could be traded, Hine opines that Niklas Hjalmarsson could be the choice to move. However, Hine points out that Hjalmarsson has a partial no-trade clause and would only accept a trade to 10 teams. Hine writes that a source within the organization indicated that the Hawks have not asked Hjalmarsson to do this.

Analysts Weigh In On Sergachev-Drouin Deal

June 15, 2017 at 6:20 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

The trade between Montreal and Tampa Bay that sent Jonathan Drouin and a 2018 conditional sixth round pick to the Habs for Mikhail Sergachev and a 2018 conditional second round pick was intriguing on a number of levels. It resulted in the Canadiens immediately inking Drouin to a six-year, $33MM deal, and flipped a defenseman to the Lightning, bolstering the blue line. It’s a deal that could not only begin the onslaught of trades that many have expected in the hockey world, but could have what Darren Dreger and Pierre LeBrun called a “major ripple effect” for Montreal. Here are some thoughts and musings from many in the hockey world.

Sportsnet’s Craig Hagerman details the expansion implications that the deal has. Getting rid of Drouin, Hagerman writes, offers Vegas a significantly less talented forward to choose from when they peruse Tampa’s choices. Additionally, Sergachev is exempt from the expansion draft. Montreal, on the other hand, still has a number of forwards they will have to expose. Hagerman adds that Tampa Bay general manager Steve Yzerman acted when the Lightning were looking at some tough choices on who to protect and expose.
TSN’s Frank Seravalli adds that the Bolts snagged a defenseman they desperately needed while the Canadiens grab the French-Canadian impact player they’ve been dreaming of since Stephane Richer, Pierre Turgeon, and Vincent Damphousse. Seravalli knows the trade was influenced by Tampa’s cap issues and its expansion draft decision. It gives them a chance to grow a potential top four d-man, while surrounding him with significant talent and other Russian influences on the team. Montreal adds a much needed goal scoring presence who has yet to even hit the prime of his career. The best part? He comes at a bargain.
The USA Today’s Kevin Allen sees this as a “do-over” for Yzerman in acquiring a top pairing defenseman. Allen writes that Yzerman chose Drouin over Seth Jones in the 2013 draft, and now has the chance to make up for that decision in acquiring Sergachev. He believes it’s a win for both sides, with the Habs acquiring a young scoring forward who is French-Canadian. The Canadiens, Allen writes, lost nothing on their current roster to add a dynamic scoring presence. For the Bolts, they gain an exceptional skater and a young defenseman who could possibly be on the roster next season.
But it’s not sunshine and rainbows for every writer. The Tampa Bay Times’ Martin Fennelly warns that it could be a deal Yzerman regrets. While he outlines the chance that Drouin doesn’t live up to what Montreal expects, he points out that the deal could “haunt” them as they’ll see Montreal often within the Atlantic Division scheduling, while adding that Drouin is an already established talent who will most likely delight in beating his former team. While Fennelly admits Sergachev to be a great prospect and saying that Yzerman hasn’t made many “bad” deals, he believes this one has the potential to blow up in his face.

All photographs courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Latest On Dion Phaneuf

June 15, 2017 at 10:29 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

When it was reported earlier this week that Dion Phaneuf would not waive his no-movement clause in order for the Ottawa Senators to protect a different player from expansion, it cause quite the rift among fans. Some defended his decision, saying that he earned the clause and has the right to use it, while others called Phaneuf selfish for not wanting to help his team and hoped he would be shipped out of town. Well, the latter half may be getting their wish as Darren Dreger of TSN reported this morning that there is trade interest in Phaneuf around the league.

While Phaneuf has four years at a $7MM cap hit remaining on his contract, the actual salary drops to just $5.5MM by the final season. His modified no-trade clause has a list of twelve teams he can be dealt to, and as Pierre LeBrun of TSN confirmed today he has re-submitted it for this season. Who is on that list remains a mystery, but it still would likely leave at least a handful of options for the Senators should they really be interested in moving him.

The Senators of course wanted Phaneuf to waive the clause in order to protect three other defensemen, and are likely willing to at least listen on trade offers because of his refusal. Cody Ceci, Marc Methot, Chris Wideman, Mark Borowiecki and Fredrik Claesson all have various cases for protection, but only one of them will be if Phaneuf isn’t moved before the lists are submitted on Saturday.

Though he has fallen quite far from the lofty heights of his early career, when he was a high-flying offensive defenseman who would jump into rushes constantly and unleash a howitzer from the point on the powerplay, Phaneuf still could help teams in a more sheltered support role, as he did in Ottawa. His cap hit is that of a first pairing all-star, but if it were balanced out by taking a bad (but not as bad) cap hit back it would be palatable for many teams around the league.

Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

June 14, 2017 at 7:50 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

Until today, the Expansion Draft plan for GM Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers remained unclear. The time had come and gone to ask overpaid blueliners Marc Staal and Dan Girardi or the underachieving Rick Nash to waive their No-Movement clauses and the team declined. They were also cutting it close should they choose to extend one of their impending free agent forwards and make their expansion decisions easier, with protection lists due on Saturday. New York has one of the deepest groups of forwards in the NHL, even with rookies Jimmy Vesey and Pavel Buchnevich draft-exempt, yet the team had not taken any steps to protect their core. At least not until this morning…

The Rangers announced two moves earlier today, the first being an extension for impending restricted free agent forward Matt Puempel. With term now on his contract, Puempel meets all the criteria to be one of two mandatory forwards exposed in the Expansion Draft, saving them from otherwise having to expose a core forward. The second announcement was the long-awaited end to the Girardi era, as the stated their plans to buy out the veteran tomorrow, opening up a slot on the blue line for them to protect the underrated Nick Holden.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Rick Nash (NMC), Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, Mika Zibanejad, Jesper Fast, Daniel Catenacci, Matt Puempel, Oscar Lindberg, Nicklas Jensen, Brandon Pirri

Defense
Marc Staal (NMC), Ryan McDonagh, Kevin Klein, Nick Holden, Steven Kampfer, Michael Paliotta, Adam Clendening

Goaltender
Henrik Lundqvist, Antti Raanta, Mackenzie Skapski

Notable Exemptions

Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei, Pavel Buchnevich, Cristoval Nieves

Key Decisions

With Rick Nash holding on to his No-Movement clause, the Rangers have just six spots left to protect a large group of impact forwards: Mats Zuccarello, Derek Stepan, J.T. Miller, Chris Kreider, Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner, and restricted free agent Mika Zibanejad. Despite a unexpected outburst of 40 points in his first season in New York, Grabner is the easy target to point at as not like the rest of the Rangers’ young and mostly homegrown talents. Many Ranger fans wouldn’t have minded holding on to Grabner, at $1.65MM next year, over Nash, who will make $7.8MM again in 2017-18 after recording less than 40 points in three of the past four seasons.

It’s hard to make a case for any of the other six being offered up instead of Grabner. Zuccarello is the oldest of the group, but he’s still only 29 and has led the team in scoring in three of the past four seasons. Zucarello is almost certainly safe. At just 23 years old, Miller has taken a bigger and bigger role for the Blueshirts with each year and is perhaps the franchise’s best building block. He too is a near guarantee. While both Stepan and Kreider have heard whispers of trade rumors in each of the past two seasons, with Stepan’s growing louder in recent days, both are far too good to give up for free and will likely be protected. After trading away Derick Brassard last off-season to acquire Zibanejad, it seems highly unlikely that the team would risk losing him already, even if his first season in New York was marred by injury. Finally, Hayes, who has done nothing but excel in any role the Rangers have given him since signing with the Rangers out of college three years ago, and it would be a major surprise to see them choose Grabner over him.

Thus, it seems Grabner will likely join Puempel as the Rangers’ unprotected forwards and with the decisions in net and on the blue line pretty clear-cut, the Rangers have gone from a confusing expansion scenario about 24 hours ago to one of the easiest teams to project.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Rick Nash (NMC)
Mats Zuccarello
J.T. Miller
Derek Stepan
Chris Kreider
Mika Zibanejad
Kevin Hayes

Defensemen

Marc Staal (NMC)
Ryan McDonagh
Nick Holden

Goalie

Henrik Lundqvist

The Rangers barely have any decisions to make in regards to their protection on defense and in net. All-world keeper Henrik Lundqvist is obviously safe, leaving skilled backup Antti Raanta as an intriguing target for the Golden Knights. Vegas GM George McPhee has stated that the team could select many promising goalies in the Expansion Draft and guage who to keep and who to trade away after the fact. Raanta could indeed be one of those picks.

On the blue line, the buy out of Dan Girardi will leave one more spot open to join go to the team’s best defender and captain, Ryan McDonagh, and Marc Staal, who was not asked to waive his No-Movement clause. The only real candidate to fill that spot is Nick Holden. Kevin Klein, who is reportedly mulling retirement, meets the 40/70 criteria to fill the one-defenseman exposure quota, but is not a viable target for Vegas. The only other defenseman under contract for the Rangers is journeyman Steven Kampfer, another player who would be a strange selection for the Golden Knights. Restricted free agent Adam Clendening, despite showing signs of upside in 2016-17, has already been informed that he will not receiving a qualifying offer and will become an unrestricted free agent, like several other Rangers blue liners, and again it is unlikely that the Knights will waste picks on UFA’s. For all intents and purposes, the Girardi buyout ensures that no further changes will be coming to the New York defense in the coming week.

If Vegas passes on Raanta, they will likely instead turn to offense and, more likely than not, Michael Grabner. After his best season since he nearly won the Calder Trophy in 2010-11, Grabner appears to be back at the top of his game and could be hard to pass up for a Vegas team that will have a hard time finding scoring in the Expansion Draft and this summer’s free agency class. The loss of Grabner would be far greater than that of Jesper Fast or Oscar Lindberg or any other possible player, though don’t rule out the possibility that the Knights simply take youth and upside over established skill.

The situation in New York has gained great clarity today and now they face one of the more predictable expansion situations in the NHL. However, that doesn’t mean that they will escape the draft unscathed. A deep, talented team like the Rangers seems destined to take a hit next week.

Red Wings Will Not Give Up Futures To Protect Extra Players In Expansion

June 14, 2017 at 9:52 am CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Detroit Red Wings GM Ken Holland was on Sportsnet 960 radio this morning and revealed that his team would be going with the 7-3-1 protection scheme and would not give up any prospects or draft picks in order to make a deal with Vegas to protect any extra players. While other teams have been discussing deals with Vegas to give them some assurance of who they will lose, Holland admitted that after missing the playoffs for the first time in more than two decades, he can’t afford to give up any future assets.

A 7-3-1 protection scheme is interesting for the Red Wings, as there was at least some speculation that they would need to protect four defensemen. Instead, they’ll likely focus on protecting any and all young assets in their system, and try to rebuild for the future. That future looked pretty good last night when the Grand Rapids Griffins took home the Calder Cup, though AHL success doesn’t always translate to the big club.

With the Golden Knights already expected to have deals in the works with clubs like Anaheim, Chicago and Columbus, the Red Wings won’t fall into any trap of spending their future to protect a player now. Even if it means leaving a player like Justin Abdelkader—who was considered a key piece of the team just a year ago—available, Holland is firmly focused on the rebuild in Detroit. That said, he also touched on the idea that he’d like to get back into the playoffs as soon as next season. He truly believes that getting into the tournament gives you a chance at the Stanley Cup, as Nashville showed this year going from the last seed to the Stanley Cup Finals. After a year in which Detroit registered just 79 points, it would take a big bounce-back for them to fight their way into the postseason next year.

Trades With Vegas Will Not Be Announced Until June 21st

June 14, 2017 at 8:50 am CDT | by Gavin Lee 4 Comments

The news that none of us wanted to hear was confirmed today, as Pierre LeBrun of TSN relays a communication from the league to teams today. They were each instructed not to reveal any trades made with the Vegas Golden Knights before the June 21st event, in which the expansion rosters will be announced alongside the NHL Awards ceremony. This is likely why we haven’t heard much from the expansion franchise despite GM George McPhee claiming that he wanted to start ironing out deals last week. It seems at least a handful of teams will have trades to announce, making the Awards show must-see television for any hockey fan next week.

It’s interesting that the league would have to go out of their way to make sure no leaks happen, as it’s hard to imagine any gain from a team revealing it’s expansion draft plans. As it stands, teams like Anaheim can still use the leverage of a possible deal in any trade talks with other teams. It will be interesting to see just how many deals are revealed during the draft, as already Chicago, Anaheim and Columbus have been seriously linked.

For all the talk about how weak the expansion class is for the Golden Knights to choose from, it does seem like they’ve done a good job so far extracting every bit of leverage out of the situation to acquire assets that may have not been available. If they can secure good young players or picks in return for avoiding a certain selection, it will only strengthen their program down the line. Because they’re not realistically expected to compete for a few years, even a young player like Josh Manson who is three years away from free agency may be less valuable to them than the asset they’ll acquire not to take him.

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

June 13, 2017 at 6:02 pm CDT | by Seth Lawrence Leave a Comment

The San Jose Sharks took an expected step backwards this season after an impressive display in 2015-16 saw them reach Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. The team is certainly at a crossroads, with long-time leaders Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton hitting unrestricted free agency. They were ousted quite easily in the first round by the upstart Edmonton Oilers, and GM Doug Wilson will look to craft a strategy that will put them back in contention for a title.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Joe Pavelski, Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Tomas Hertl, Melker Karlsson, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney (RFA), Barclay Goodrow (RFA)

Defensemen:

Brent Burns, Paul Martin, Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun, Brenden Dillon, David Schlemko, Dylan DeMelo, Mirco Mueller (RFA)

Goaltenders:

Martin Jones, Troy Grosenick, Aaron Dell

Notable Exemptions

Joonas Donskoi, Timo Meier, Kevin Lebanc, Marcus Sorenson, Danny O’Regan, Tim Heed, Joakim Ryan

Key Decisions

The Sharks are looking to infuse some youth into their lineup next season, and they are hopeful that one of the poor-performing vets in Mikkel Boedker or Joel Ward will be the only loss to expansion. Unfortunately for them, it seems unlikely that the Golden Knights are looking to acquire many greybeards. A huge debate, at least from the outside, is whether they will opt to protect 8 skaters and one goalie, or the more popular 7F/3D/1G setup. San Jose has done quite well to build a stable group of defensemen, but they do have some forwards they’d prefer not to sacrifice.

On offense, there are three locks to be protected, at the least. Logan Couture and Joe Pavelski are the offensive leaders of this team and are both in the primes of their careers. Tomas Hertl has amazing creativity and flare, and will only improve as he just turned 23. Melker Karlsson seems the next safest bet, as he has displayed great defensive play and versatility. He is the team’s swiss-army knife, and has too much value to sacrifice. The remaining group of forwards that would be exposed if San Jose opts to go the 4F/4D/1G route would be thus: Mikkel Boedker, Joel Ward, Jannik Hansen, Chris Tierney. Losing one of Hansen or Tierney would be irritating, but surmountable.

On defense, Brent Burns is a dominant offensive force from the blueline – he led the league in points from the blueline. Marc-Eduoard Vlasic takes the bulk of quality competition and has been a rock defensively. Justin Braun didn’t have the most phenomenal year, but he is an integral piece of the team going forward. This leaves Paul Martin, David Schlemko, Mico Mueller, and Brenden Dillon all exposed – with one of the group nearly certain to be lost. Martin has been a top-pairing guy for a decade, and his loss would be significant. Vegas’ has stated the goal of starting young and could certainly pass over the 36 year-old. It’s a sizable risk, but it certainly seems a possible scenario that he remains untouched. Dillon hasn’t performed well enough to warrant protection over the other two D-men. He had a much better possession season this year (53.0 Corsi For %) than last (49.3% CF), but his offensive impact is truly minimal. He also sees bottom-pairing minutes and a lower quality of competition than Schlemko.

Of the remaining two, Schlemko is clearly the better player at this moment. Schlemko had a great possession year (54.6% CF)and has been a positive influence on every team he’s played. Protecting Schlemko would serve to provide insurance if Martin were for some reason claimed. There is a marginal case to protect the younger Muelller, as he is only 22 and could serve as a cheap option on the blueline for the next few years. He did only played 4 NHL games last year, and impressed no one, but as a recent first-rounder Vegas could jump on the opportunity. The organization does seem low on him, so he could easily find himself on the outs.

In net, Martin Jones will obviously be the protected asset. The team just re-signed backup Troy Grosenick, but with the plethora of available goalies Vegas can choose from, he’s entirely safe.

Although there are plenty of no-trade clauses (NTCs) on the roster, there are no players who require protection due to an NMC. Additionally, the Sharks will benefit heavily from their foresight (and/or luck) with having Thornton and Marleau both turning UFA this particular off-season. Vegas could theoretically “claim” either, but it wouldn’t do anything other than give the Knights a head start on potential contract negotiations. With those two older players relatively safe, the organization will focus on protecting others who will contribute to their chances in the near future. Schlemko had a solid year and will be playing long after Martin is retired, and that will likely be the tie-breaker.

Projected Protection List

F Joe Pavelski
F Logan Couture
F Tomas Hertl
F Melker Karlsson

D Brent Burns
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Justin Braun
D David Schlemko

G Martin Jones

By all indication, the Sharks are trying to compete again next year. I fully expect them to sign at least one of Marleau and Thornton and to make another strong push in the Pacific before going complete re-build. Burns is still a top defenseman, and with a solid re-tooling of the bottom-six, it’s not an inconceivable goal. Schlemko is not too far behind Martin in terms of performance, and could see his role improved. They are flirting with moving him for assets, which wouldn’t be the worst decision if they then protected Martin. One of the two has to be there to round out the top-four on defense.

As for Vegas, they could go with a semi-“proven” commodity in the speedy Boedker, fill out the roster with the solid but unremarkable Tierney, take a risk on an unproven talent like Mueller, or go the safest route and employ the aged Martin to guide the youngsters along. They will have options, but no loss the Sharks couldn’t endure.

Expansion Primer: Nashville Predators

June 13, 2017 at 5:01 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

Two days ago, the Nashville Predators’ dream season came to an end. A goal scored from nearly behind the net (after a much disputed quick whistle earlier in the game) put the Pittsburgh Penguins up 1-0 in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final, a lead which they would not relinquish. The Predators would have to watch on home ice while the Penguins celebrated winning the trophy, before saluting a crowd that had witnessed the longest playoff run in team history.

Now, they’ll head into the offseason with a bittersweet taste in their mouths from getting so close, and with some huge decisions to make with regards to the future of the team. Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson lead a large crop of restricted free agents that need new contracts, while both James Neal and Juuse Saros could be up for extensions as they have just one year left on their respective contracts. The Predators are one of the most interesting teams when it comes to the expansion draft, as their glut of defenders will likely force them to leave some other intriguing players available to Vegas.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson, Calle Jarnkrok, Cody McLeod, Colton Sissons, Miikka Salomaki, Cody Bass, Trevor Smith, Austin Watson, Ryan Johansen, Pontus Aberg, Viktor Arvidsson

Defensemen:

P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis, Andrew O’Brien, Matt Irwin, Yannick Weber, Anthony Bitetto, Petter Granberg, Jaynen Rissling

Goaltender:

Pekka Rinne (NMC), Marek Mazanec

Notable Exemptions

Kevin Fiala, Victor Ejdsell, Vladislav Kamenev, Emil Pettersson, Frederik Gaudreau, Juuse Saros

Key Decisions

One of the tough parts about being a Stanley Cup contender is usually most of your core players are in or entering their prime and thus would be eligible for expansion. That’s the case in Nashville, where virtually all of their key players will need protection in the draft. The first decision they have to make is whether to use the 7-3-1 (seven forwards, three defensemen, one goaltender) or 8-1 (eight skaters, one goaltender) protection scheme. The Predators will most likely choose the latter, because of their deep defense corps. James Neal ” width=”242″ height=”300″ />

Sometimes called a group of four #1 defenders, hyperbolic superlatives aside the Predators have one of the best groups among any blueline in the league. P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis all have incredible value, mostly because of the relatively low cap-hits held by the latter three. Leaving any of them available for Vegas would assure they were the selection, meaning that the team will likely only have four slots remaining for the forward group.

Beyond those four, only Matt Irwin holds any real value. The 29-year old defenseman has played well at times in a sheltered role in the NHL, developing into a legitimate option for any third pair in the league. Despite this, he would be an extreme long-shot to be selected by Vegas. Yannick Weber, re-signed just earlier today is even further removed from consideration.

Up front, four slots would leave several players available for the Golden Knights to pounce on. Three will undoubtedly go to Johansen, Arvidsson and Filip Forsberg while the last spot has several options. Today, Pierre LeBrun of TSN speculated on this decision, saying the team could potentially leave Neal unprotected and use it on Calle Jarnkrok instead. Neal is a 29-year old power forward who has scored at least 20 goals every season of his nine-year career. Earlier this year we looked at just how rare his career performance has been, making him an incredibly appealing option for Vegas should he be left exposed. Even though Neal has just one year left on his contract, he would likely be the most talented forward that the Golden Knights could acquire.

Jarnkrok on the other hand is an intriguing option, given the inexplicably cheap contract he signed last summer. At the age of 24 and coming off a 16 goal season, Jarnkrok signed a six-year $12MM contract that bought out several free agent years. Clearly it seems to matter more to him where he plays than how much he earns, as he easily could have made more on the open market when he reached unrestricted free agency. That cost-certainty is appealing to Vegas, as is his ability as a middle-six center that can contribute at both ends of the rink. Centers will likely be the most difficult thing for the Golden Knights to acquire through the draft, and they would likely jump at the opportunity to acquire one that just averaged 17 minutes a night on a team that made it to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final.

There is also the problem of Colton Sissons, who before the playoffs would have been an afterthought in the expansion draft plans. When Ryan Johansen and Mike Fisher went out with various injuries though, Sissons stepped up and scored more points in his 22 playoff games than he did all season. He showed that there may be more to him than a bottom-six center, and given the right opportunity could thrive with more responsibility.

In net, Pekka Rinne would likely be protected even if he didn’t have the no-movement clause that makes it automatic. Rinne was a big part of how the Predators did so well in the playoffs, and at 34 put up another solid season. Though he’s owed a lot of money—$7MM per season for the next two years—he’ll likely enter next season as the starter once again as the team eases Saros in as the future in net. Saros’ exemption is a big plus for the team, as the 22-year old looks like one of the best young goaltenders in the league after posting a .923 save percentage as a rookie in 19 starts this year.

Among free agents that the Golden Knights may be interested in negotiating with during their exclusive window, only Mike Fisher really stands out. The captain of the Predators is 37 now and though he had a fantastic season for his age—18 goals and 42 points—wouldn’t provide much value for the Golden Knights who figure to struggle the first few years. Other than that, the team could try to negotiate a long-term deal with someone like Pontus Aberg, who showed he may have a future in an NHL top-six and could be tempting should they have a contract in hand by the end of the window.

Projected Protection List

F Filip Forsberg
F Viktor Arvidsson
F Ryan Johansen
F Calle Jarnkrok

D P.K. Subban
D Roman Josi
D Mattias Ekholm
D Ryan Ellis

G Pekka Rinne

The Predators are another team that is likely desperately trying to work out a deal of some sort with the Vegas Golden Knights or any other team, as letting Neal walk for nothing would be foolish. He’s still young enough that he can provide value for basically every team in the league, and wouldn’t be hard to find a suitor even on the last year of his contract. He does hold a limited no-trade clause, but it only allows him to block trades to eight teams around the league. Along with Sissons, Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and others, the Predators are ripe for the picking up front and could easily provide the Golden Knights with one of their best players.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Neal, Beck, No. 1

June 13, 2017 at 12:33 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee 1 Comment

Among his morning musings, the venerable Pierre LeBrun of TSN mentioned the possibility of the Nashville Predators, fresh off a Stanley Cup Finals loss, could leave James Neal exposed in the upcoming expansion draft. A few months ago, that would have seemed far-fetched but with Calle Jarnkrok’s increased role in the playoffs and incredibly team-friendly contract it might now be a realistic scenario.

The Predators will almost surely protect their top four defensemen, leaving just four remaining protection slots for forwards. With Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Johansen all being locks, Neal and Jarnkrok are likely battling for the final spot. That is, if the team isn’t working out a side-deal like so many other clubs with Vegas in order to protect more than the allotted number of players.

Taylor Beck is headed to the KHL, signing with Avtomobilist today. The 26-year old was set to become a restricted free agent once again, this time with the New York Rangers whose farm team he ended the season with. The once third-round pick of the Predators was traded four times in a two year span, including a deal at the deadline this year. Despite scoring 66 points in 56 games this season in the AHL, Beck got into just five NHL contests and will now try his luck somewhere else. In 92 career NHL games, he has 23 points and always seemed just a step behind what it took to make an impact at the highest level. He’ll try to refine his game in Russia, while possibly returning at some point down the road.
In the latest from Mike Morreale of NHL.com, he speaks to New Jersey Devils GM Ray Shero about the upcoming entry draft and the possibility of moving the #1 pick. “What would it get me to trade the No. 1 pick outright? I couldn’t even tell you,” Shero tells Morreale. There has been some speculation that the Devils could trade down to take a defenseman, but with the prospect of taking one of Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier staring you in the face, it’s hard to pull the trigger. As we’ve examined before, trading the first-overall pick is a risky business.

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