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Hurricanes Notes: Williams, van Riemsdyk, Forsberg

August 1, 2019 at 6:15 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

Now one month into free agency, the top scorer left on the unrestricted free agent market is Carolina Hurricanes veteran Justin Williams. After Hurricanes GM Don Waddell spoke with the media today, The Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander writes that it is Carolina waiting on Williams and not the other way around. The 37-year-old is reportedly still weighing whether or not he wants to return for a 19th NHL season. However, Waddell indicated that Williams is at least leaning toward another year. The decision is not based on finances either, but rather just on whether Williams is physically up for another season. In fact, Waddell stated that the two sides have not talked contract terms at all, but is confident that a deal can be figured out despite the team’s lacking salary cap space. The Hurricane have just under $2.5MM open, but CapFriendly’s projection includes 23 players and Williams’ addition would bump another forward down to AHL Charlotte, meaning there’s slightly more space than it would appear. Waddell noted that an incentive-laden contract would allow the team to maneuver around the cap to fit Williams in. Williams is expected to be in Raleigh next week, likely with his decision made, so expect an announcement, one way or another, in short order. Given that he posted his highest point total since 2011-12 last season, it’s safe to assume that the respected veteran is not done just yet.

  • Alexander also relays from Waddell some news on injured defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk. Despite early reports that van Riemsdyk could miss the beginning of the regular season, Waddell stated that he has already resumed skating. TVR suffered a serious shoulder injury in the postseason and went under the knife in early May. At the time, he was give a four-to-six month recover period that would have extended into November in the worst case scenario. Instead, he is clearly rehabbing well and is back on the ice after just three months. Waddell did warn that van Riemsdyk could be held out of contract drills early in training camp, but it certainly seems like the start of the regular season in October is well within his reach. Waddell added that forward Jordan Martinook is also doing well in his recovery from core surgery in late May.
  • The Hurricanes’ front office is keeping busy still at this point in the summer, with a possible Willams negotiation still to come and ongoing talks with restricted free agents Saku Maenalanen, Trevor Carrick, Roland McKeown, and Anton Forsberg. The latter is new to the organization, coming over from the Chicago Blackhawks in the Calvin de Haan trade. The goaltender may get a rough start to his tenure in Carolina, as he is currently slated for a salary arbitration hearing on Sunday. The 26-year-old Forsberg is currently expected to play behind Petr Mrazek and fellow new addition James Reimer, as well as possibly top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. The Hurricanes are likely willing to go through arbitration with Forsberg to argue for a two-way contract, so as to avoid paying an NHL salary to a player who is likely to be buried in the minor leagues next season. Forsberg, who did not make an NHL appearance last season, is still likely to argue that not only does he deserve a one-way contract, but he deserves a raise on his previous $750K salary, given his NHL experience and stout AHL numbers.
  • There is of course a chance that Forsberg could win the backup role behind Mrazek in training camp, as could Nedeljkovic. However, one of the key evaluators in that position battle is not yet in place. After goaltending coach Mike Bales resigned from his post in June to join the Buffalo Sabres, the Hurricanes have been on the hunt for his replacement. While a replacement has yet to be named, the announcement is imminent. Alexander writes that Waddell said the team is “close” to hiring a new goalie coach. Whoever that man is will play a key role in sorting through an intriguing situation in net, one that is unlikely to be completely decided in training camp alone.

AHL| Arbitration| Carolina Hurricanes| Chicago Blackhawks| Free Agency| Injury| NHL Alex Nedeljkovic| Anton Forsberg| Calvin de Haan| James Reimer| Jordan Martinook| Justin Williams| Petr Mrazek| Salary Cap

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Mitch Marner Deal Holding Up Other Restricted Free Agents

July 29, 2019 at 8:40 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 16 Comments

If the Toronto Maple Leafs’ negotiations with Mitch Marner last as long as they did with William Nylander last season, many other NHL teams are going to be in trouble. According to The Athletic’s Joe Smith, many other agents are waiting to see how Marner’s deal shakes out before finalizing terms for their own top restricted free agent forwards. A surprising number of prominent RFA forwards remain unsigned and could stay that way until the Marner deal sets the market.

Writing specifically about the Tampa Bay Lightning, a team facing their own RFA conundrum with breakout center Brayden Point, Smith states that the team expects Point to be ready for camp in September, but agent Gerry Johansson is content with the “slow process”. The agents for Mikko Rantanen, Matthew Tkachuk, Kyle Connor, Brock Boeser, Patrik Laine, and Travis Konecny likely feel the same way and are apparently waiting to see where Marner, the best of the group, ends up before moving forward. In fact, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal also added today that things are very quiet around Boeser’s camp and he acknowledges that the process has been slow for most big-name RFA’s.

So what will be the first domino to fall? Will Marner really sign first and set the stage for everyone else? Or will another unsigned star finally budge and give the market a much-needed comparable? While Marner, who recorded 94 points in 82 games last year, is the most established player and considered the top RFA who would be the ceiling for the market, he was actually quite comparable to Rantanen and Point last season. However, the rest of the group could benefit from any of the group signing a contract to use as a point of comparison. At this point in the summer, the odds are high that at least one of these negotiations will last into the regular season. But if the reports are true that the market waits on Marner, those teams with top unsigned RFA forwards better hope that Toronto and their star winger are closer than it seems.

RFA| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs Brayden Point| Brock Boeser| Kyle Connor| Matthew Tkachuk| Mikko Rantanen| Mitch Marner| Patrik Laine| Travis Konecny| William Nylander

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Jesse Puljujarvi Trade Increasingly Unlikely

July 29, 2019 at 7:24 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 11 Comments

When young Edmonton Oilers forward Jesse Puljujarvi asked for a trade this summer and threatened to play in Europe if he was not moved, it seemed all but certain that he would be dealt before the start of the new season. However, it has been more than a month since agent Markus Lehto told the media of Puljujarvi’s ultimatum and there has been no move and really no concrete rumors either. The Edmonton Journal’s David Staples writes that the trade offers for Puljujarvi have have been underwhelming and if that trend continues, he believes new GM Ken Holland seems willing to take the risk of holding on to Puljujarvi.

Puljujarvi, 21, has failed to live up to his draft billing as the No. 4 overall pick in 2016, to say the least. The big Finnish winger has recorded 37 points in 139 games since coming over to North America three years ago and his per game production dropped to a new low last season with just nine points in 46 games. Although Puljujarvi showed elite offensive upside before he was drafted, he has failed to capitalize on ample opportunity in Edmonton. Clearly, he and his representation feel a change of scenery could be the key to getting him back on track and one would expect teams to still be intrigued by his potential. However, if the offers have indeed been less than expected, perhaps other teams have been turned off by the young right wing’s showing so far. If that is the case, no one can blame Holland for holding on to his asset rather than giving him away at a discount rate.

With a new head coach in Dave Tippett also in the fold, Staples believes that Puljujarvi can find his change of pace without leaving the team and can still be an effective player for the Oilers, especially considering the opportunity still available in Edmonton for him to be a top-six player. The team has brought in their fair share of new faces up front this off-season, but Puljujarvi still seems likely to slot in on the right side of the second or third line, at least to begin the campaign. If he starts cold yet again, Staples admits that Puljujarvi could head back to the trade block, particularly since the team could use a third-line center.

What Staples doesn’t discuss though is the “what if” of Puljujarvi backing up his claim of jumping to Europe. Staples simply assumes that if he is not traded, Puljujarvi will show up and camp and again try to prove that he is an NHL-caliber player. However, the risk the Oilers are taking is that Puljujarvi simply is not willing to play in Edmonton again and will indeed follow through on his threat to play abroad. Two teams in his native Finland, the KHL’s Jokerit and the Liiga’s Karpat, have previously been linked to Puljujarvi, so if the Oilers do intend on not trading him in the coming months, he very well could suit up outside of the NHL next season.

Dave Tippett| Edmonton Oilers| KHL| Ken Holland Jesse Puljujarvi

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Cameron Rowe Commits To The University Of Wisconsin

July 29, 2019 at 6:23 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 1 Comment

A tumultuous off-season for prospect Cameron Rowe is finally trending upward. After being one of the biggest surprises among undrafted players back in June and de-committing from the University of North Dakota earlier in July, Rowe appears to have his development path back on track. Todd Milewski of the Wisconsin State Journal hears that Rowe has committed to the University of Wisconsin and cites the young goaltender’s own social media as further proof. Rowe will join a Badgers program that is adding significant talent over the next two years and will continue to have the attention of NHL scouts.

Rowe, 18, did not exactly grab headlines last season, but impressed many hockey minds who did get a chance to see him in action. Rowe played second fiddle to Florida Panthers first-round pick Spencer Knight for the U.S. National Team Development Program last season. Even with Knight missing some time due to injury, Rowe only made 30 appearances to Knight’s 33. He was also overshadowed performance wise, as his respectable 3.40 GAA and .875 save percentage at the junior level paled in comparison to Knight’s 2.36 and .913. Yet, Rowe still emerged as a top goalie prospect in the recent draft class. NHL Central Scouting ranked him as the No. 4 goalie in North America and several other sources pegged him as a fourth- to sixth-round pick. Somehow, Rowe slipped through the cracks and will have to try his luck again next year as an overage prospect.

Things took another turn earlier this month, when Rowe left his commitment to North Dakota. The rumor was that the Fighting Hawks coaching staff was frustrated about Rowe’s lack of dedication to the college route, as he had at least entertained the idea of a jump to the major junior level to play for the OHL’s London Knights. The team released Rowe from his commitment, making him a free agent of sorts beyond the 2019-20 season, during which he will play for the USHL’s Des Moines Buccaneers.

Well, Rowe didn’t stay available for very long and it seems North Dakota was wrong about his commitment to the NCAA route. Committing to Wisconsin less than a month later, Rowe joins a program that has high expectations in the coming years. Rowe’s USNTDP teammates Alex Turcotte (LAK), Cole Caufield (MTL), and Owen Lindmark (FLA) are set to join the program this year, alongside top 2020 prospect Dylan Holloway. Joining Rowe in the 2020 recruiting class are more intriguing American forwards in Tanner Latsch and Liam Malmquist. Head coach Tony Granato’s team is in for an exciting few years and now have their goalie of the future in Rowe, who will also be excited to get to Madison and show NHL teams what they missed out on in the draft this year.

London Knights| NCAA| USHL Cole Caufield| Spencer Knight

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Snapshots: Jets, Kings, Badgers

July 28, 2019 at 6:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

A lot has been made about the rumored discourse in the Winnipeg Jets’ locker room. The team suffered another early exit from the postseason this year and some reactions from players, coaches, and media members alike indicated that chemistry concerns may have played a role. This off-season hasn’t helped the narrative either, with mainstays Tyler Myers, Ben Chiarot, and Brandon Tanev all electing to walk away as free agents, while Jacob Trouba was traded and Marko Dano and Joe Morrow were not qualified. Andrew Copp was re-signed, but only after a salary arbitration award, and Patrik Laine and Kyle Connor remain unsigned. It’s not good look for a group of players who some feel don’t get along.

Well, star player Mark Scheifele wants to put a stop to these whispers. Speaking with NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger, the Jets’ No. 1 center said that he is confident in his team’s chemistry. “People can claim whatever, but I know we have a tight-knit team,” Scheifele said, “We have great guys in our room. And there’s no question in my mind about the character we have in our room, the unity that we have.” He summed up the ongoing drama by stating that “you know what’s going on in your room. Anything extra is a bunch of baloney.” Scheifele admitted that it was difficult to see the likes of Trouba, Myers, Chiarot, and Tanev leave and hopes that there are resolutions shortly with Laine and Connor, but did not hint that internal issues were the cause of any of their negotiations. Of course, Scheifele would never come out and say otherwise, but it should provide Winnipeg fans with a bit of comfort that he was willing to speak openly about the locker room and tried to shut down the rumors that personalities have or could continue to affect the team’s performance.

  • The World Junior Summer Showcase is underway and fans of the Los Angeles Kings should pay close attention. NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman writes that the Kings lead the way with seven prospects participating in the tournament, headlined by recent No. 5 overall pick Alex Turcotte of Team USA. In fact, each of L.A.’s top four selections in June are in attendance; Turcotte is joined by fellow first-round pick Tobias Bjornfot, fellow American forward Arthur Kaliyev, and forward Samuel Fagemo, who joins Bjornfot on Team Sweden. Fourth-round pick Kim Nousiainen will also suit up for Team Finland. 2018 picks Akil Thomas and Aidan Dudas will both line up at forward for Team Canada. It’s an impressive collection of young talent for the Kings and one that should inspire hope for the future for a team that finished last in the Western Conference this past season with just 71 points. This group likely won’t be making an impact in the NHL in 2019-20, but L.A. is grooming a talented young core to take over down the road.
  • As for next season, Turcotte definitely won’t be in L.A., as he’s committed to playing at the University of Wisconsin. The Badgers’ incoming recruiting class has been very highly regarded, as it features Turcotte and fellow U.S. National Team Development Program products Cole Caufield (MTL) and Owen Lindmark (FLA), as well as another 2019 draft selection in Ryder Donovan (VGK) and potential 2020 top-ten pick in Dylan Holloway. With so many talented freshmen incoming, the question has been how head coach Tony Granato would use his rejuvenated roster. That question has been partially answered for the arguably the team’s new two best forwards. Talking to The Athletic’s Corey Pronman at the Summer Showcase, Caufield stated that he and Turcotte will play on the same line for Wisconsin, at least to begin the year. The duo have some familiarity, although Caufield – the No. 15 pick this year – largely played on Jack Hughes’ wing last season. However, they both possess immense offensive talent, while Turcotte has the two-way intelligence to compensate for Caufield’s lack of size and defensive focus if need be. Having played on the international stage already, the adjustment to the college level should not be too difficult and Turcotte and Caufield could put up huge numbers in their first (and likely only) collegiate season.

Los Angeles Kings| Prospects| Snapshots| Team Canada| Team Finland| Team Sweden| Team USA| Winnipeg Jets Andrew Copp| Ben Chiarot| Brandon Tanev| Cole Caufield| Jack Hughes| Jacob Trouba| Joe Morrow| Kyle Connor| Mark Scheifele| Marko Dano| Patrik Laine| Team Canada

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Free Agent Profile: Oscar Lindberg

July 28, 2019 at 4:02 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

It’s been nearly a month since NHL free agency opened and a number of notable players remain unsigned, including 13 of PHR’s Top 50 Free Agents. Given the slow-moving nature of the market and the limited cap space that many teams are dealing with, it’s no surprise that a role player like Oscar Lindberg, ranked No. 47 on our list, remains unsigned.

With that said, Lindberg could prove to be a surprise steal once he does find his next team. The 27-year-old forward has been a consistent bottom-six contributor in each of his four NHL seasons, but finally showed some top-six upside in a late-season stop with the Ottawa Senators. Lindberg earned career-high minutes in Ottawa and recorded five goals and eight points in 20 games, a 20-goal and 33-point full season pace. He also returned to playing center, his natural position from his start with the New York Rangers but a role he was not given while with the Vegas Golden Knights. A relatively young player to be available on the open market and who has the potential to keep improving beyond just a defensive forward role, a team interested in Lindberg could wind up with a middle-six center at a good value at this point in the off-season.

Potential Suitors

Much like in Ottawa, Lindberg’s ceiling will be highest in a situation where there is room for him to compete for a top-six or at least top-nine role. A team that still needs help up front is likely the most realistic scenario salary-cap wise as well. It’s possible that a contender could look at Lindberg for a bottom-six role if the price is right, but more likely a rebuilding club will be enticed by the reliable defensive play and offensive upside that he can bring to make a superior offer.

Among the teams that could look at Lindberg more closely as the off-season wears on are the New Jersey Devils, Los Angeles Kings, and Minnesota Wild. All three clubs could really use some more depth up front and have room for Lindberg to compete for a key role. On top of that, they all have the cap space to accommodate a potential contract.

Other interested teams who may look at Lindberg as more of bottom-six depth piece could include the New York Islanders and Columbus Blue Jackets.

Projected Contract

In our Top 50 projections, we expected that Lindberg would land a two-year deal with a $2.1MM AAV. At this point in the summer, a multi-year deal seems less likely. However, it’s hard to see the salary dropping off by much. Lindberg made $1.7MM on his last contract and set a career high in ice time this past season, as well as recording 20 points in 55 games. If anything, his previous salary should be the low mark on a possible deal with something closer to the $2.1MM projection still the more likely result. It’s a salary range that teams in Europe would be happy to match to add a player of Lindberg’s ability, so interested NHL teams may have a hard time trying to drive the price down. Unless Lindberg is dead set on staying in North America at all costs, he should be able to negotiate a fair deal before the start of next season.

Free Agency Oscar Lindberg

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Overseas Notes: Rychel, Enstrom, KHL

July 27, 2019 at 10:59 am CDT | by Zach Leach 12 Comments

After years of trying to find his place in the NHL, former top prospect turned journeyman Kerby Rychel has decided to take his talents to Sweden. Orebro HK of the SHL announced today that Rychel has signed a one-year contract with the club. Rychel brings with him nearly 300 games worth of AHL experience, as well as 43 NHL games. The 19th overall pick by the Columbus Blue Jackets in 2013, Rychel entered the pro level with high expectations as both the son of respected former player and OHL executive Warren Rychel and as a player who had done serious damage on the score sheet at the junior level. Rychel looked to be on his way to becoming an established NHL player when he suited up for 32 games with Columbus in his second pro season, but a trade to Toronto – in exchange for current Blue Jackets defenseman Scott Harrington – altered his trajectory. Rychel never played a single game for the Maple Leafs, spending close to two full seasons with the AHL’s Marlies. He was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens at the tail end of the 2017-18 season as part of the package for rental Tomas Plekanec. Despite performing well in a brief showing with the Habs, Rychel was traded again last summer to the Calgary Flames for Hunter Shinkaruk. Even as he was enjoying the best per-game production of his AHL career with the Stockton Heat, Rychel earned just two appearances with the Flames and the team did not make him a qualifying offer earlier this summer. Putting a tumultuous NHL career behind him, Rychel will now try his hand at the SHL. Orebro struggled last season, finishing tenth out of 14 teams and will be glad to add an experienced talent like Rychel. Between he, fellow new addition Ryan Stoa, and returning top liner Shane Harper, Orebro should pack some more offensive punch next season.

  • Given the lackluster NHL free agent market this summer, it’s no surprise that few veterans who had previously made the jump to Europe have been able to find a fit back in North America. Count defenseman Tobias Enstrom among that group. The 34-year-old has re-signed with his hometown team, MODO of the Swedish minor league Allsvenkan, the club announced. It is a new one-year deal for the captain, who returned to Sweden last off-season. A career member of the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets franchise, Enstrom found himself without a home for the first time in 11 years last summer as a free agent without a market. He held out hope, waiting for an offer until late August, before opting to head home. In returning to MODO, the team he grew up playing for – albeit in the SHL at that time – Enstrom took on a leadership and also saw a spike in his production. MODO hopes that the strong play continues from their veteran ace, as the team looks to contend for promotion back to the SHL in the upcoming season.
  • The quiet NHL free agent market has had an overwhelmingly positive effect on the European leagues, as few players left their respective clubs while talent continues to come over from North America. While Sweden has had a strong off-season in the import business, the winner thus far in terms of NHL additions is unsurprisingly the KHL, considered to be the best of the European leagues. Among the players who have signed in the KHL this off-season are forwards Sven Andrighetto, Ty Rattie, Nikita Soshnikov, Jori Lehtera, Peter Holland, and Lukas Sedlak, defensemen Andrej Sustr, Igor Ozhiganov, Bogdan Kiselevich, and Jakub Jerabek, and goaltender Harri Sateri. It’s a valuable influx of talent for a league that is seeking better competitive balance.

AHL| Calgary Flames| Columbus Blue Jackets| KHL| Montreal Canadiens| SHL| Toronto Maple Leafs| Winnipeg Jets Andrej Sustr| Bogdan Kiselevich| Harri Sateri| Igor Ozhiganov| Jakub Jerabek| Jori Lehtera| Kerby Rychel| Nikita Soshnikov| Peter Holland

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Michael McCarron Re-Signs With Montreal

July 27, 2019 at 9:33 am CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

The last of the Montreal Canadiens’ restricted free agents is signed, as Michael McCarron has come to terms on a new deal with his team. The Canadiens reported a one-year, two-way extension with the forward. The deal carries a minimum $700K salary at the NHL level and a $125K salary at the AHL level, with $150K guaranteed. McCarron will be an RFA with arbitration rights again next summer, though he opted to not exercise those rights this offseason.

McCarron, 24, has had somewhat of a backwards pro career thus far. A 2013 first-round pick, McCarron was a rare prospect who had spent considerable time with both the U.S. National Team Development Program and at the Canadian major junior level, excelling in both places by using his massive 6’6″, 220-lb. frame at both ends of the ice. McCarron turned pro in 2015 and played in 20 games with Montreal as a rookie. He then played in 31 more with the Habs as a sophomore. However, while the team had given him more than a fair shake, the production had not matched the opportunity. By the end of 2017-18, a season spent mostly in the minors, McCarron had just eight points to show for 69 NHL games. As a result, he spent the entirety of this past season with the AHL’s Laval Rocket.

Montreal hopes that McCarron’s size and the scoring ability he has flashed in the minors will eventually come together into an effective NHL contributor. However, until that happens consistently in the AHL, McCarron is unlikely to be back with the Canadiens on a regular basis. CapFriendly currently projects the big right winger to be in the minors this season. He won’t be alone though; Montreal currently has 25 players listed on their NHL roster via CapFriendly, a number that will have to be thinned in training camp. It’s also fair to speculate that, with all of their RFA’s signed and cap space remaining despite the overloaded roster, that the Canadiens could go back on the hunt this off-season for yet another NHL piece, after a swing and a miss on their Sebastian Aho offer sheet.

AHL| Montreal Canadiens| RFA Michael McCarron

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Calgary Flames Re-Sign David Rittich

July 27, 2019 at 8:59 am CDT | by Zach Leach 2 Comments

After a hot start to salary arbitration season with three hearings, things have cooled off of late with a slew of contract resolutions. Add another to the list, as the Calgary Flames and goaltender David Rittich have come to terms on an extension. The team announced that the 26-year-old net minder has signed on for two years at an AAV of $2.75MM. Rittich will be an unrestricted free agent when the deal expires after the 2020-21 season.

The Flames now have their 1A goalie back under contract, as Rittich outplayed veteran Mike Smith last season, earning 42 starts to Smith’s 40. Rittich posted career-high numbers in his second season as a Calgary regular, recording a .911 save percentage and 2.61 GAA. Not only were these numbers a personal best and substantially better than Smith’s, they were also top-20 marks among goalies with appearances in at least half of their team’s games, showing that Rittich could hold his own as the Flames’ top option. Given his age and level of play, albeit in limited appearances, it still seems like Calgary got a good value on this $5.5MM pact.

Still just 26 and without a lot of tread on the tires as timeshare goalie in the Czech pro ranks for many years, Rittich has the potential to continue improving as well. He will certainly be pushed in the upcoming season, as Smith has been replaced by the younger and arguably more talented Cam Talbot. Talbot signed a one-year deal this off-season with a $2.75 AAV that matches Rittich’s. The salaries would suggest an even split in net, but the incumbent Rittich has the advantage in familiarity and longer-term investment and should get the preference early on. If he can again prove that he is the superior option to a respected veteran, Rittich could see even more appearances in 2019-20 than he did last year, and perhaps another career performance as well.

The Rittich deal, although more than fair, does add more pressure to the Flames’ salary cap conundrum. CapFriendly currently projects the team to have $4.67MM in cap space. With Matthew Tkachuk still unsigned, as well as Andrew Mangiapane, that simply won’t be enough. Since Rittich had filed for arbitration, the Flames’ second case after their recent resolution with Sam Bennett, the team will be afforded a second buyout window, a 48-hour opportunity to rid themselves of a large contract that could help them sort out their financials. However, there is no obvious candidate for such a move and the team could instead continue shopping defensemen Travis Hamonic and T.J. Brodie and forward Michael Frolik in hopes of opening up more space.

Arbitration| Calgary Flames Cam Talbot| David Rittich| Mike Smith

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Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

July 25, 2019 at 8:00 pm CDT | by Zach Leach Leave a Comment

It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

Arbitration| Buffalo Sabres| Colorado Avalanche| Washington Capitals| Winnipeg Jets Andrew Copp| Braden Holtby| Brett Kulak| Chandler Stephenson| Christian Djoos| Cody Ceci| Craig Smith| Evan Rodrigues| Gemel Smith| Jacob Trouba| Jake McCabe| Jonas Siegenthaler| Linus Ullmark| Nate Schmidt| Salary Cap

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