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Jason Pominville Considering Buffalo, Montreal

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Less than 24 hours after our Brian La Rose profiled Jason Pominville’s continued free agent availability, The Athletic’s Marc Antoine Godin has an update on where he might be headed if he’s to continue his NHL career. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Pominville has two routes in mind: staying with the Buffalo Sabres or signing with his hometown Montreal Canadiens. Although Pominville has proven that he is still a capable NHL forward at 36 years old, recording 16 goals and 30+ points in each of the past two season, the veteran forward is well aware that the free agent market is tough and that the NHL is getting younger and faster, but he is not willing to take just any job to keep playing:

There are quite a few players in my situation, they’re not sure if they’re going to play, or if they do they’re not sure where they want to go… As for me, we’ll see. I’m staying in shape, but I’m not going to just jump into any situation. I do it because I love it, and because I know I still can play, but it’s going to have to be the right fit.

That “right fit” for Pominville also includes considering his family. Godin writes that Pominville’s children are at an age now where picking up and moving is not as easy. The family is entrenched in Buffalo and would like to stay there if possible. Of course, the Sabres are already over the salary cap ceiling for the coming season and will have to move a player as is before the season begins. Whether they look to use any space they manage to open up to bring on another player remains to be seen, as does whether Pominville would be a preferred target. The winger has played eleven seasons in Buffalo and contributed over 500 points to the franchise, but that doesn’t ensure continued interest.

As for Montreal, it would be a natural fit for the Quebec native, who still trains in the area during the off-season, and would likely be a more comfortable move for his family. Agent Normand Dupont tells Godin that he feels the Canadiens have not yet replaced Andrew Shaw, who was traded to the Chicago Blackhawks this summer, and feels Pominville could easily take on the two-way veteran forward role. In addition to the need, the Canadiens also have the salary cap space to add Pominville (or an even bigger name actually), so the fit there could exist.

This may not be an exhaustive list of who Pominville would play for next season, but his comments certainly make it seem like he would rather retire that move to an unfamiliar team far from his family at this point in his long career. A return to the Minnesota Wild or a move to other nearby clubs like the Toronto Maple Leafs, Ottawa Senators, or Pittsburgh Penguins could also be on the table for Pominville, even if not mentioned specifically. Only time will tell what the rest of the off-season will bring for the respected veteran, but he can certainly still play if the right opportunity presents itself.

Jason Zucker Likely Safe Following Paul Fenton’s Firing

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Former Minnesota Wild GM Paul Fenton managed to trade away Nino Niederreiter, Charlie Coyle, and Mikael Granlund in 14 months on the job and was shopping Zach Parise prior to his dismissal. Yet, the name that has come up most often in trade rumors of the last year has been another core forward, Jason Zucker. Shortly after signing a new five-year, $27.5MM extension with the team last summer, Zucker’s name seemingly took a permanent spot on the trade block and was seemingly close to being dealt on several occasions, including a nixed deal to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Phil Kessel earlier this off-season.

With Fenton’s departure now comes piece of mind for Zucker, writes NHL.com’s Jessi Pierce. Zucker received a personal call from Minnesota owner Craig Leipold when the decision to move on from Fenton was officially made, with Leipold clearly feeling that Zucker was one of the players most ill-affected by Fenton’s reign and was a long-term key player who deserved better. Zucker tells Pierce that he is glad none of the rumored trades ever came to fruition, as he is happy to be in Minnesota and is ready for a fresh start but relieved it didn’t require a move to a different team. Zucker says that he and his teammates are not worried about the new GM, but are eager to see what comes next for the club:

You earn the respect by the moves you make, the teams you build, and the championships you win, and that’s what it comes down to. For us, we’re excited to see who comes in and the direction he’s going to take this organization.

As for Zucker’s job security moving forward, a new GM is unlikely to trade away any more core players from Minnesota, at least not any time soon. He will likely take some time this upcoming season to evaluate the team before restructuring. Even then, Zucker’s $5.5MM cap hit over the next four years is a bargain deal if he can get back to the 64-point form he showed in 2017-18. However, after a drop-off to just 42 points last season, he’ll need to bounce back to remain safe moving forward. Additionally, Zucker’s limited No-Trade Clause – a ten-team no-trade list – will help him stay in Minnesota if it comes to that, but the 27-year-old would rather prove his worth through his player rather than have to use his contract. As the team looks to move on from Fenton and repair their culture, a well-respected player like Zucker feeling comfortable, playing up to par, and buying into the team’s long-term plan could be invaluable for Minnesota.

Free Agency Rumors: Bargains, Brassard, Upshall

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NHL free agency is more than a month old, yet still chock full of value. In fact, the Athletic’s Jonathan Willis calls it the strongest August unrestricted free agent class that he has seen in over a decade. So how many of these notable names can expect to find NHL employment before next season? Willis broke down the group of unsigned players, listing five centers, six left wings, four right wings, four left-shot defensemen, four right-shot defensemen, and zero goaltenders that he feels certain still deserve a role in the league. Many of those are distinguished veterans who will comes as no surprise, names like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Justin Williams, Derick Brassard, Patrick Maroon, Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, Brian Boyle, and Ben Lovejoy, for example. Others are simply role players at this point in their career, having failed to show the upside needed to be an impact contributor, such as Riley Sheahan, Tobias Rieder, Magnus Paajarvi, Dmitrij Jaskin, Ben Hutton, Joe Morrow, and Fredrik Claesson, to name a few. However, the most intriguing names, pointed out by Willis as possible targets for bargain hunters at this point in the off-season, include Jake Gardiner, Kevin Shattenkirk, Oscar Lindberg, Valeri Nichushkin, and Alex Petrovic. Willis believes each one has a high ceiling and has more to give an NHL team than the rest of the list, aside from some of the top veterans. Some of those analyzed by Willis who he didn’t feel were necessarily worthy of another NHL contract? Jamie McGinn, Micheal Haley, Cody McLeod, Zac Rinaldo, Devante Smith-Pelly, Drew Stafford, Andrew MacDonald, David Schlemko, Adam McQuaid, and Cam Ward.

  • One of the aforementioned names, Derick Brassard, may be closest to finding a new home. The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers’ interest in the veteran center, as they currently have a hole down the middle on their third line. This is hardly the first time that Brassard’s name has been linked to the Oilers, but it is the first time details have emerged. Leavins reports that Brassard is seeking upwards of $4MM AAV on his next contract, which is beyond what Edmonton is willing to pay. They have fair reason to avoid that salary too, as Brassard is coming off the worst season of his career, a 23-point campaign split between the Pittsburgh Penguins, Florida Panthers, and Colorado Avalanche. Approaching 32 years old and already showing signs of decline over the past few years, Brassard will be hard-pressed to get $4MM from any team, never mind the cap-strapped Oilers. Leavins mentioned that the Montreal Canadiens also have interest in Brassard, but the two teams are unlikely to engage in a bidding war. If the Oilers are already in talks with Brassard, they stand a good chance to land him at a fair price, even if it takes another few weeks to move him to a reasonable asking price.
  • Leavins also notes that Scottie Upshall is hoping to throw his hat back into the ring for NHL consideration this summer. Upshall joined the Oilers in training camp on a PTO last fall, only to suffer a serious lower-body injury and to be cut from camp. Leavins notes that he has been rehabbing for the past nine months and feels he is ready for a comeback. The market for Upshall certainly won’t be overwhelming – he was on a PTO last year and is now a year older and coming off a major injury – but there’s reason to think he still has value and could earn another training camp invite. Upshall has had his struggles with both injuries and consistency throughout his 15-year NHL career, but the journeyman forward has cracked 30 points five different times and is an established two-way contributor and penalty killer. His last full season with the St. Louis Blues in 2017-18, Upshall played a regular role on the team’s fourth line, albeit missing 19 games, and was on a full-season pace for 25 points and a career-high 155 hits. If Upshall really is back at full strength, it’s fair to assume that some teams may have interest in his veteran presence and energy role, especially if they can also assume a 20-30 point season on a minimum contract.

Bruins Notes: McAvoy, Carlo, Cassidy, Calder

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The Boston Bruins are a month away from training camp and arguably their best two defensemen remain unsigned. Restricted free agents Charlie McAvoy, 21, and Brandon Carlo, 22, are still in the process of negotiating new contracts, and effort made difficult by Boston’s current salary cap conundrum. The Bruins have just over $8MM in cap space right now, but the problem is McAvoy alone is eyeing a contract worth that amount each year. The 2016 first-round pick has struggled to stay healthy through his first two NHL seasons, but has been dominant when available with 60 points in 117 games while leading the Bruins in average time on ice. Some have cited Jacob Trouba’s recent seven-year, $56MM contract with the New York Rangers as a possible goal for McAvoy’s camp, while he would likely still exceed $6MM annually on a bridge deal. Barring any other roster changes, that would make it hard for the team to then sign Carlo, who is less effective offensively but has become the team’s most reliable defensive blue liner over the past three years. The price on a Carlo extension again depends on term, but the big defender could top $4MM on a long-term pact.

The Bruins simply don’t have the cap space right now to give both players what they want, otherwise they would both be signed already as core pieces of the present and future. It will take further negotiations or a roster shake-up to get McAvoy and Carlo under contract, so the wait continues. Bruins president Cam Neely tells NBC Sports Boston that the team must be ready for the possibility that one or both are still unsigned entering September:

“We do have to plan and prepare for these players to not be at camp opening day. But we have five, six weeks hopefully to get something done. We feel like we should be able to get something done with both of these guys at numbers that make sense for us, and hopefully makes sense for them. I think we’ve done a really good job of kind of managing the cap and making sure that we’re OK to get these guys done.”

It remains possible that the Bruins could squeeze both young defenders in on short-term bridge deals without making any further moves. The more likely scenario, which gives the contenders some more flexibility for the coming season though, is that a transaction or two will be made. David Backes, and his $6MM cap hit, has been the most talked-about target, but it could be pricey to move him without giving up a top pick or prospect or taking back another bad contract. Backes also has a limited No-Trade Clause to worry about, although he may be more open to a move if his options are another NHL team or AHL Providence. A move to the minors would save the Bruins $1.075MM against the cap. As for other possibilities, the affordable extensions of Connor Clifton and Steven Kampfer have made veterans Kevan Miller and John Moore expendable, if the Bruins can get fair value back in a deal for one or the other. One way or another, it’s likely the Bruins need to clear some cap space before next season to accommodate McAvoy and Carlo without handicapping their roster for the whole season, so expect some moves out of Boston. The start of the season on October 3rd and, worst case scenario, the December 1st deadline for RFA’s to play next season are the dates to watch for resolutions to this situation.

  • One negotiation that won’t be as much of a concern for the Bruins is the extension of head coach Bruce Cassidy. Since taking over for Claude Julien late in the 2016-17 season, Cassidy is 117-52-22 as the Bruins’ bench boss and has guided the team to back-to-back 100-point seasons. In 2017-18, he was a Jack Adams Award finalist and in 2018-19 he was a Stanley Cup finalist, so it’s safe to say that the Bruins are happy with Cassidy’s work. Neely said as much, stating how important Cassidy has been to the Bruins’ recent success, as well as their future. He also added that the team does not expect any issues with re-signing Cassidy, but have been preoccupied this summer with McAvoy and Carlo. A new contract is no doubt on its way for Cassidy. Neely joked that “I feel comfortable that he’ll be ready for training camp.”
  • For those looking for a dark horse candidate for the 2020 Calder Trophy, perhaps looking to take advantage of long odds, pay close attention to the Bruins in training camp. Given the team’s shortage of cap space and needs up front, a rookie could fall into a nice situation in Boston. If Charlie Coyle remains at third-line center, as expected, and the team moves Danton Heinen back to left wing, where he has been a better fit on his natural side, it opens up a competition to skate on the right side of David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk on the second line next season. A player who finds a nice fit with those two will have the potential to produce at a high level. Of course, that could wind up being free agent addition Brett Ritchie, talented but oft-injured Anders Bjork, or the no longer waiver-exempt Peter Cehlarik. However, the Bruins have some younger options with much more upside who could fight for the job instead. Top forward prospect Jack Studnicka is now a pro and, while he has generally played center during his junior years, the right-shot forward is buried on the depth chart down the middle and may have too much skill to keep in the minors. Oskar Steen was one of the best players in the Swedish Hockey League last season at just 21 years old and the right wing could find the adjustment to North America easier than expected. Jakub Lauko turned some heads at the junior level last year and could make a case with his play in camp that he doesn’t need to return to the QMJHL. The teen winger could instead try to fight for a role on his off-side. Finally, there are two players who got their first NHL looks last season in Karson Kuhlman and Zach Senyshyn. Kuhlman’s hard-working game won over the Bruins’ coaches and even earned him a role in the postseason, while Senyshyn seems to have outgrown the minors and is ready to put his next-level speed to better use. If any of these potential rookies wins the position battle to play alongside Krejci and DeBrusk, it doesn’t necessarily make them a Calder favorite, but does make them a high-ceiling dark horse to watch out for.

Free Agent Profile: Cam Ward

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Since the unrestricted free agency rush of July 1st subsided, just two NHL goaltenders have been signed off the open market: Anthony Stolarz with the Anaheim Ducks and Jared Coreau with the New York Islanders. That’s two goalie signings in 33 days, making it easily the quietest position of this off-season, despite a major re-shuffling of UFA starters early on and several RFA extensions as well.

Unsurprisingly, several notable names remain available – Scott Darling, Chad Johnson, Mike McKenna, Al Montoya – while Michal Neuvirth has already accepted a PTO. However, one name sticks out above the rest for both his career accomplishments and his meaningful role in 2018-19.

Cam Ward, 35, ventured outside of Carolina last season for the first time in his 14-year NHL career. Ward signed a one-year, $3MM contract with the Chicago Blackhawks last summer and proceeded to play a major tole for the team this past season. Dealing with ongoing issues with starter Corey Crawford, Ward ended up playing in 33 games to Crawford’s 39 and Collin Delia’s 16. Although Ward’s .897 save percentage and 3.67 GAA were the worst among the trio, it was only a marginal gap. The Blackhawks struggled defensively and no goalie was safe, as all three finished with a save percentage below .910 and GAA above 2.90.

Still, Ward cannot have been happy with his results last year. A Stanley Cup winner and former All-Star, Ward was rock solid for the Hurricanes for several years. He thrived early on as a workhorse, including a 2010-11 campaign in which he posted a career-high .923 save percentage in a league-best 74 appearances. He then settled nicely into a timeshare role, posting back-to-back seasons with a 2.40 GAA while playing in around 50 games each year from 2014 to 2016. Even as he continued to age and his numbers slipped slightly, no one could have predicted his pedestrian performance last season. It was a sharp decline from his career numbers that could have been an outlier or could be signaling the end of his career.

One thing that is certainly working against Ward finding work this off-season is the now well-established narrative that he does not play well as a backup. Over his career, Ward has played in four seasons, including last year in Chicago, in which he did not make at least half of his team’s starts. In those three seasons combined, Ward is 49-38-13, with a a save percentage of .895 and a GAA of 3.37. In all of his other seasons combined, Ward has a record of 285-218-75, with a save percentage of .911 and a GAA of 2.63. It is extremely clear that Ward does his best work with regular appearances and any team looking to make the most of signing him will want to offer that opportunity. But does such a landing spot exist?

Potential Suitors

The honest answer is that the team likely to sign Ward, if any, isn’t aware of the need just yet. Ward could very well be a veteran option that a team turns to in case of injury or poor performance that can be a temporary starter. While it’s impossible to project injuries, the New York Rangers have a starter who is even older than Ward and have very little depth behind him. A Henrik Lundqvist injury could certainly turn the Blueshirts on to Ward as an option to step in at starter during a season that brings high expectations to New York. The same could be said for the Vegas Golden Knights, whose 34-year-old starter Marc-Andre Fleury has dealt with injury issues before. Vegas is in better shape with their depth in net and could handle a short absence from Fleury, but without a proven NHL goalie elsewhere on the depth chart, a long-term injury could send them on the hunt for a solution. Despite having both John Gibson and Ryan Miller, the Anaheim Ducks are far from safe when it comes to injury risk and could be an option for Ward if disaster strikes. The Philadelphia Flyers shuffled through goalies like no other team in NHL history last year, so another issue with Brian Elliott could easily have the Flyers intrigued in Ward.

As for teams who risk needing a starter due to poor play, no team jumps out more than the Columbus Blue Jackets. It’s perhaps even fair to call them the most likely landing spot for Ward, as they are sure to go through some bumpy times with their young tandem of former backup Joonas Korpisalo and unproven import Elvis Merzlikins. The team only has more untested foreign talent in the minors as well. The Blue Jackets have ample cap space, so if there was a bidding war for Ward at any point, Columbus would be the favorite to beat out any other team in need of an emergency starter.

If Ward is intent on signing before the season begins though, rather than wait for a need-based market to develop in-season, there are a couple of teams who could still be looking for a backup. Again, that isn’t the ideal role for Ward, but it is one that the respected veteran would likely be willing to try his hand at again. The Florida Panthers spent big on Sergei Bobrovsky this summer, but 22-year-old Samuel Montembeault is slated to be the primary backup heading into next year. He is waiver-exempt still and could head to the AHL without issue if the team opted to look at a veteran backup. However, this doesn’t seem extremely likely, considering their investment in Bobrovsky, who they likely expect to make 65 starts. In Colorado, the Avalanche seemed hesitant to give last year’s third-string, Pavel Francouz, an extended look despite strong numbers in the NHL and AHL. He is now the likely backup to Philipp Grubauer, who himself is still finding his footing as a true starter. The Avs have almost no depth in net and could look to add another name to the mix in Ward.

Projected Contract

Ward has made at least $3MM in each of the past four seasons and more than $6MM on the contract prior to that. Those days are now over. Regardless of the impact that his role or the team’s defense had on his 2018-19 performance in Chicago, Ward has lost his leverage to command a sizable salary after such a poor season. If he is settling in to a backup role before the season, he will almost certainly land somewhere between $1MM and the league minimum of $700K. If he is signing mid-season to take over as a starter or at least in a timeshare, that number could go up, but not much higher. If Ward feels like he has several years left, he will be looking at this season as an investment in future earnings; he will accept a cheap deal to go to the right place where there is the potential to succeed, so as to hit the market next summer with some more bargaining power. The only question is whether that right fit exists, now or down the road after the season begins. Ward could call it a career if no such opportunities arise by the end of the calendar year.

Minnesota Begins Search For Paul Fenton’s Replacement At GM

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Saturday: TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie reports that Minnesota has asked permission to interview Canadiens assistant GM Scott Mellanby.  He has served in that role with Montreal for the past five years after spending two seasons as their Director of Player Personnel.

Friday: The firing of GM Paul Fenton by the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday certainly came as a surprise to many, but not those within the organization, writes The Athletic’s Michael Russo. Fenton was dismissed after little more than a year on the job after a tenure that Russo describes as “death by a thousand cuts.” There was no one thing that caused Fenton to lose his job, but rather mounting evidence that he was a poor fit in the organization. Sources within the team stated that Fenton’s dysfunctional style of running the club caused a negative shift in the culture, both in the locker room and in the front office, and an overall drop-off in morale. Owner Craig Leipold and company were left cleaning up after Fenton’s messes as a lack of trust and communication permeated the entire organization. Whether it was Fenton’s dismissal of analytics, his disrespect for incumbent Wild executives, his mismanagement of the coaching staff, or his failure to maximize trade assets, the GM was constantly at odds with everyone around him, including his owner. As such, many Wild staffers were not shocked that Fenton was fired, even at a strange time in the middle of the off-season, as Russo writes that Leipold has been distressed about the situation “for months” and action became inevitable.

So, now in early August and following a draft and free agent frenzy run by Fenton, the Wild are in search for a new leader for their organization. Given the struggles under Fenton, a first-time GM, Minnesota is understandably seeking someone with experience on the job. Among the early candidates to emerge were former GM’s John Ferguson Jr., now with the Boston Bruins, and Dave Nonis, now with the Anaheim Ducks, and experienced assistants Bill Zito of the Columbus Blue Jackets and Tom Fitzgerald of the New Jersey Devils. However, Russo reports that the team has chosen two free agent former GM’s as the first to interview for the position. Peter Chiarelli and Ron Hextall, both of whom were fired themselves during this past season, have already met with Leipold, president Matt Majka, and executive adviser Mike Modano about the opening, per Russo.

Chiarelli, fired by the Edmonton Oilers in January, has a Stanley Cup title on his resume with the Boston Bruins, but struggled greatly during his time with the Oilers. Chiarelli has also ended up on the wrong side of major trades and long-term contracts too often during his time in both Boston and Edmonton. There is no doubt that Chiarelli is an intelligent hockey mind, but there is some question as to whether he should be rushed right back into a top decision-making role. The Wild saw too many poor trade returns under Fenton, as well as a questionable free agent contract handed out to aging forward Mats Zuccarello, to put someone in control who they can’t trust not to continue that trend, so Chiarelli will have to convince the team that he has changed his approach.

As for Hextall, fired in November by the Philadelphia Flyers, some felt the former star goalie deserved a longer leash as GM. On paper, he left the team in good shape – ironically for replacement Chuck Fletcher, who preceded Fenton as Minnesota’s GM – but received criticism for his slow approach. Hextall may be a fine option in terms of hockey knowledge and ability as a GM, but Russo notes that, like Fenton, he has gained the reputation of being difficult to work with. An “intense” and “hard” boss, the fragile morale in Minnesota may not be ready for Hextall unless the team trusts that he will handle himself differently.

Russo points out that the Wild expect this to be a long, meticulous process and he does not believe that Chiarelli and Hextall interviewing first necessarily makes them the front-runners. In fact, it could very well have to do with the fact that neither has an affiliation with another NHL team at this moment. In addition to the other aforementioned names, Russo adds Dean Lombardi, Garth Snow, Bill Guerin, Chris Drury, Mark Hunter, Brian Lawton, Mike Gillis, and even reigning GM of the Year candidate Don Waddell, whose contract with the Carolina Hurricanes has yet to be renewed, as possible candidates. It is a long list of options with many different backgrounds and experience levels and it will take some time for Minnesota to sort it all out. For now, Chiarelli and Hextall are the only names to interview, but that group will expand as the summer wears on before the team makes a decision possibly months from now.

Arbitration Breakdown: Joel Edmundson & Jake McCabe

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Salary arbitration season is already almost over, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through this Sunday, August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. Four such cases have gone all the way through the process this year, with four more left on the schedule. What goes on behind closed doors before the point of an arbitrator’s award? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

In our final breakdown this off-season, we’re doing something different and using two players who are both scheduled to go to hearing on Sunday: the St. Louis Blues’ Joel Edmundson and the Buffalo Sabres’ Jake McCabe. The pair of defensemen are remarkably similar and one would almost certainly end up as a comparable player in the other’s case if he was to settle in the next 36 hours or so. Even if that doesn’t happen, the two could certainly share some other comparables. Both Edmundson and McCabe fit within a rough criteria of between 220 and 320 career games played and .175 and .25 career points per game. The same margins were used to find potential shared comparables, but how the players may be used can differ by case. Here is a closer look:

Joel Edmundson

Career Statistics: 269 games played, 13 goals, 39 assists, 52 points, +18 rating, 18:13 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 64 games played, 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, +8 rating, 19:23 ATOI

Filing Numbers: Edmundson – One year, $4.2MM, Blues – One year, $2.3MM (midpoint: $3.25MM)

Jake McCabe

Career Statistics: 274 games played, 14 goals, 47 assists, 61 points, -19 rating, 19:26 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 59 games played, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, -4 rating, 18:57 ATOI

Filing Numbers: McCabe – One year, $4.3MM, Sabres – One year, $1.95MM (midpoint: $3.125MM)

Potential Comparable Players

Nikita Zadorov (2019)
Career Statistics: 292 games played, 18 goals, 44 assists, 62 points, -16 rating, 18:14 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 70 games played, 7 goals, 7 assists, 14 points, +19 rating, 17:12 ATOI
Salary: $3.2MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Team Side Comp – Although Zadorov’s new contract comes in slightly below the midpoint of Edmundson and the Blues, St. Louis will likely still use Zadorov as a comparable player. A similar size and style of player to Edmundson, Zadorov has more experience despite being two years younger. That alone is a strong argument. Although Zadorov’s additional career games played skew his numbers somewhat as a comparison, it doesn’t influence his career points per game, which is higher than Edmundson’s. Both players have very similar ice time numbers in their careers, including a drop-off in the platform. However, Zadorov has made the greater impact in terms of games played, as Edmundson has never surpassed 70 games in a season. Zadorov also has a major edge in the physical game. Edmundson’s camp will argue that he is the more adept shot blocker as well as shot taker and played a bigger role in the platform season, but this is a tough comp for the player side.
  • McCabe’s Case: Common Comp – McCabe has a much better case against Zadorov than Edmundson. First, he is more similar in both age and experience. Second, he has the superior career points per game by a notable margin. Zadorov’s salary is on the opposite side of the midpoint for McCabe’s case compared to Edmundson’s, so the player side will argue that the award belongs on the plus side. However, he could end up as a common comparable player, as the Sabres have a strong case that Zadorov’s age and experience along with far superior physical game offset McCabe’s slight offensive advantages. They can also not McCabe’s lack of availability, playing less than 60 games in each of the past two years while Zadorov has played 70+. Zadorov could be the defining case for McCabe.

Trevor van Riemsdyk (2018)
Career Statistics: 237 games played, 11 goals, 36 assists, 47 points, +21 rating, 18:08 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 3 goals, 13 assists, 16 points, +9 rating, 17:03 ATOI
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – How well Edmundson contrasts himself with van Riemsdyk could make or break his case. Edmundson is younger and has more experience that van Riemsdyk did and is unquestionably a better physical force. However, van Riemsdyk has slightly better career scoring numbers and enjoyed a stronger platform season on the score sheet. The team side will counter with these points and, while they won’t succeed in driving Edmundson’s price down to van Riemsdyk’s $2.3MM, they could use him as a bench mark to show why they filed at that number.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – McCabe has age, experience, scoring, and physicality all on his side in a comparison with van Riemsdyk and his camp can use that to show that McCabe is worth well more than $2.3MM and closer to or exceeding Zadorov’s $3.2MM. Again, one weakness that the team side will counter with his health and availability, as van Riemsdyk played in 79 games in the platform season and has a full 82-game season on his resume, while McCabe has missed 50+ games over the past two seasons.

Andrej Sustr (2017)
Career Statistics: 274 games played, 8 goals, 48 assists, 56 points, +2 rating, 17:05 ATOI
Platform Statistics: 80 games played, 3 goals, 11 assists, 14 points, -10 rating, 17:35 ATOI
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Edmundson’s Case: Player Side Comp – Edmundson’s camp could use the Sustr comp to further show that they are worthy of a higher award despite lacking offensive numbers. Edmundson is simply hands down the superior defensive player, with nearly 400 more career hits in fewer games, as well as substantial leads in blocked shots, plus/minus, and ice time. The fact that Sustr is the better offensive player, both career and platform, will come up though and a strong argument by the Blues could bring the price down.
  • McCabe’s Case: Player Side Comp – In the exact same amount of career games as Sustr had, McCabe has only five more points, but has almost 300 more hits and more than 100 more blocked shots. While McCabe’s camp has used offense as their main argument against other comparables, he is simply a much better defensive player than Sustr, as well as slightly better offensively. There’s also age and ice time arguments to be made. Buffalo will simply argue that the fact that Sustr shows up as a comp at $1.95MM justifies their filing number and should drive down the price of the award.

Prediction

When healthy, there is little question that McCabe is the best defenseman among this group. However, his health over the past couple of years is a concern. Whether or not the arbitrator thinks that it is a persuasive argument will play a key role in the award. Using van Riesmdyk and Sustr to boost their case, the player side should be at least be able to get close to Zadorov’s $3.2MM. However, it’s a toss up at that point between the two and the injury concerns could play a role. Leaving a narrow margin for an arbitrator who value blue line offense above all else, the likely range for an award is between $3-3.4MM. It thus stands to reason that McCabe has a good chance of receiving a favorable award.

Although he may be the bigger name, Edmundson’s odds are not as strong. It’s difficult to see an arbitrator agreeing that Edmundson is a superior player to Zadorov, whose salary comes in slightly below the midpoint of the case. That makes the chances fairly slim that he will receive a favorable award versus the Blues. As for the specific result, the van Riemsdyk comparison will be the key, as he is a more similar player results-wise. If Edmundson’s camp can express that Edmundson is not just slightly better, but much better and also younger and more experienced, they could wind up pushing $3MM. Expect the range to be somewhere around $2.6-3MM, though.

Puljujarvi Doubles Down On Promise To Play In Europe If Not Traded

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After reports just days ago that new Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland was unlikely to give in to the trade demands of Jesse Puljujarvi, the young forward has fired back. Puljujarvi took part in a charity game in his hometown of Oulu, Finland today and spoke with the media during the event. Finnish sports reporter Jouni Nieminen translated his comments as follows:

I want a new start with some other team. Playing in North America is still my goal. I will stay in Oulu until I have a contract. I will find a place to play somewhere.

This echoes what Puljujarvi has been saying all summer long and he is well within his right to remain in Europe if he chooses. While technically still a member of the Oilers, the 21-year-old is an unsigned restricted free agent under no obligation to return to Edmonton if he doesn’t want to. However, he is not free to sign with another NHL team and will require a trade to continue his goal of playing in the NHL. While the Oilers have been listening to offers from other clubs, they have reportedly been underwhelmed and are not willing to trade Puljujarvi away at rock bottom price. By no means has the 2016 fourth-overall pick showed that he is worthy of a great return; in three pro seasons he has split time between the NHL and the AHL, recording just 37 points in 139 NHL games and another 37 points in 53 games in the minors. However, the young winger still has the size and skill to be a special player if he can put it all together and Holland is not ready to give up on that potential, especially so early into his tenure as Oiler’s GM.

However, will that mindset change if Puljujarvi really does hold true to his promise to play in Europe? It’s a very reasonable option for the Finnish forward, as he won’t have to go very far. Oulu is home to the Liiga’s Karpat, the team whose system Puljujarvi grew up in and a club that he played in 71 games with before moving to North America. The league’s defending regular season champs and a perennial contender, Karpat is a team that Puljujarvi could play a major role for and could continue his development with, while also being fairly compensated. And at 21, there’s no reason to think he couldn’t spend multiple seasons with Karpat if things are going well and the Oilers are unwilling to change the status quo. So is Edmonton really willing to ride that potential career arc out on principal? Or will the team simply cut ties with a player who has only brought disappointment and frustration to the club thus far? There is still far more to the trade demand saga between player and team this summer and possibly longer.

New Owner Alex Meruelo Promises To Keep Coyotes In Arizona

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New majority owner of the Arizona Coyotes Alex Meruelo made a great first impression on his fan base today. Meruelo took the stage this afternoon at Gila River Arena and, among other things, promised that he would keep the Coyotes in Arizona:

I am committed to stay here. I will do everything I can in my heart, and in my hard work to make sure that we can make it viable…I will not stop until we bring a Stanley Cup to the Valley.

Given the constant issues that the Coyotes franchise has had with both ownership turnover and attendance, the team has continually been rumored to be a candidate to re-locate to a new market. Although NHL expansion has quieted some of these whispers, cities like Houston and Quebec City remain interested in adding an NHL club and the Coyotes are always considered the top candidate. However, the league has remained dedicated to the state and the new owner has joined in.

Meruelo spoke openly and honestly in his press conference about many things, including his childhood dreams of owning a sports franchise and his role as the NHL’s first Hispanic owner. His commitment to keep the Coyotes in Arizona seems just as legitimate. While that doesn’t necessarily mean that the team will remain in Glendale, having previously expressed a desire to move to a new arena – an idea backed by the league – it seems that Arizona fans can rest easy for a while longer that their team isn’t going the way of the Thrashers.

Arbitration Breakdown: Linus Ullmark

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings began on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

The Buffalo Sabres are 50/50 on settling arbitration cases so far this summer, coming to an agreement with Remi Elie prior to a hearing, but going through the process with Evan Rodrigues. They remarkably have two cases left with just two hearing dates remaining. The first, scheduled for Friday, is with 26-year-old homegrown goaltender Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s performance as well as his role with the team has been up and down over his career and there is no consensus as to whether he is still growing into a future starter or has settled into a backup position. That much was evident when the two sides exchanged filing numbers, as the two figures were drastically far apart. The Sabres prevailed against Rodrigues in a case that seemingly favored the player; will they do so again? Here is a closer look at the case:

The Case of Linus Ullmark

Career Statistics: 63 games played, 24 wins, .910 save percentage, 2.87 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 37 games played, 15 wins, .905 save percentage, 3.11 goals against average

Filing Numbers: Ullmark – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $800K (midpoint: $1.725MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Starting-Caliber Goaltender: strong 2017-18 numbers in NHL and AHL; comparable numbers to starter Carter Hutton in platform season; higher quality start percentage than Hutton in platform season
  • Lacking Opportunity: strong numbers in 20 appearances as a rookie in 2015-16, made only six appearances over the next two seasons; Sabres were ninth-worst in shots allowed in platform season, lacked opportunity to play behind competent defense

Team Side

Themes:

  • Backup-Caliber Goaltender: inferior statistics to starter Hutton in platform season; SV% and GAA ranked in bottom ten among 48 goalies with at least 30 appearances in platform season; unable to earn more appearances in prior seasons
  • Unreliable Goaltender: cannot handle regular NHL workload, numbers in five appearances in 2017-18 far superior to numbers as primary backup in 2018-19; allowed four or more goals in 15 appearances, including seven of final twelve appearances and five times in back-to-back appearances

Potential Comparable Player:

David Rittich (2019)
Career Statistics: 67 games played, 35 wins, .909 save percentage, 2.70 goals against average
Platform Statistics: 45 games played, 27 wins, .911 save percentage, 2.61 goals against average
Salary: $2.75MM

  • Player’s argument: Similar career numbers; similar age, size, developmental path
  • Team’s counter: Rittich had substantially better numbers in the platform season; has shown steady improvement at NHL level, eventually winning starting role; Rittich has better quality start percentage, more reliable and consistent performances

Prediction

There are not many great cases for arbitration-eligible goaltenders with Ullmark’s level of NHL experience. That serves to benefit him though, as one such player is a case settled last week in Rittich. Although Rittich’s new $2.75MM salary is more than Ullmark’s side filed for, they can acknowledge Rittich’s superior play in the platform season and still argue that the career numbers are similar enough to warrant their  $2.65MM ask. As for the Sabres, they can easily argue that Rittich is on a much better trajectory than Ullmark, but the player side may admit to that themselves. They’ll have to really hammer home the contrast between the two goalies if they are to use Rittich’s case to their advantage. Otherwise, Buffalo will have to dig deep to find a different case that both fits the criteria for a case that can be used in a hearing and also makes sense as a comparable player, so they can add additional points to their argument. It’s going to be tough, though. The Sabres pulled out a surprise against Rodrigues, but don’t expect them to do it again. Anticipate a potential award to land somewhere in the $2.1-2.3MM range.

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