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Snapshots: Dahlen, Teply, Boston University

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Many believe that talented, but under-performing forward Jonathan Dahlen may be primed for a breakout year in 2019-20, beginning his first full season with the San Jose Sharks. Dahlen, 21, was acquired by the Sharks at the trade deadline in a swap with the Vancouver Canucks for fellow Swedish forward prospect Linus Karlsson. Dahlen had failed to do enough in the AHL to earn a call-up to the Canucks in his first season in North America, but after a four-point outburst in the final seven games of the regular season with AHL San Jose, many felt a change of scenery could be all he needed to battle for an NHL spot this upcoming season. However, Dahlen may not break camp with the Sharks this fall because he may not even be in camp. Swedish news source Hockey Sverige reports that Dahlen is expected to return to his former club, Timra IK. Dahlen is in the final year of his entry-level contract, but that deal does include a European Assignment Clause, which allows Dahlen to play in Europe if he does not make the NHL club. The fact that this information has been leaked so early before training camp likely indicates that Dahlen either believes or knows that he won’t be playing for the Sharks in 2019-20 and would prefer to return home to Sweden rather than suit up for the Barracuda. Dahlen exercised his European Assignment Clause in the first year of his ELC, playing for Timra rather than the AHL’s Utica Comets. After a season in Utica last year that left a lot to be desired, Dahlen is likely eager to get back to his roots, especially since Timra has been promoted to the SHL from the minor league Allsvenskan since the last time he played there. If Dahlen does indeed jump overseas next season, it doesn’t mean his career with San Jose is over. The Sharks would merely need to make him a qualifying offer next season to retain his rights moving forward, should he re-discover his game and try again to make it in the NHL.

  • One player making the reverse move, going from Europe to North America, is Chicago Blackhawks prospect Michal Teply. Teply played professionally in his native Czech Republic last season, but is ready to return to the junior ranks. After being selected No. 4 overall in the recent CHL Import Draft, Teply has delivered on the pick used by the WHL’s Winnipeg Ice, as the team announced he has signed. The Ice, who are moving from Kootenay to Winnipeg and looking for a fresh start after a second-to-last league finish, are likely to see immediate results from Teply. A big winger who uses his size well to create space and make plays, many were surprised that Teply fell into the fourth round for the Blackhawks. In fact, there was a consensus among the top scouting services that Teply was a surefire second- or third-round pick. From fourth round to fourth overall, Winnipeg still may have found a steal in Teply, as the skilled forward has already proven he can compete with men at the pro level and could be in for breakout year against junior competition.
  • Boston University has found its new starting goaltender via transfer. The program has announced that a pair of graduate transfers have joined the team in Alex Brink and Sam Tucker. While Brink was a nice piece as a depth forward at Brown University, Tucker is the big news. The 23-year-old keeper split starts in net for Yale University over the past three seasons, including leading the team in appearances in each of the past two years, and his numbers took a sharp upturn in 2018-19. He now joins an elite NCAA program in BU where superior defense and possession ability should allow him to excel even more. After losing Jake Oettinger to the pros, it was looking like the Terriers were going to enter next season with untested Vinnie Purpura in net, but Purpura can take another year to continue developing while Tucker presumably takes over the starter role. Brink and Tucker join a new group of players that is arguably the best recruiting class in the nation, helping to make up for an exodus of nearly a third of last year’s roster to the pros.

Bruins Sign Pavel Shen To Entry-Level Contract

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Tuesday: The Bruins have officially announced the contract.

Monday: From seventh-round flier to an NHL contract sooner than anyone might have expected, CapFriendly reports that the Boston Bruins have signed forward prospect Pavel Shen to a three-year entry-level contract. The deal will carry the maximum $925K AAV, $809K of which is salary and the remainder in bonuses. Shen will join the Bruins immediately for the 2019-20 season.

It was evident early on that the Bruins had found a diamond in the rough in 2018 with Shen, the 212th overall pick. The Russian center fell into the seventh round even after playing 29 games in the KHL as a 17-year-old in his draft year and the Bruins jumped at the opportunity to snag him late, despite limited production at the top level. He immediately showed that there was more to his game with a standout World Junior Championship performance. Shen recorded four points in seven games and was easily Russia’s most effective defensive forward. His regular season was less eventful, as he bounced back and forth between the KHL’s Salavat Yulaev Ufa and the MHL’s Tolpar Ufa and failed to produce on the score sheet.

However, the Bruins and others had already seen enough to identify what Shen might bring to the table down the road with his two-way intelligence and raw skill. He entered the team’s recent development camp with high expectations and performed up to par. It was no surprise that he then returned to Russia and negotiated a termination of his contract, allowing him to begin his Bruins career right away. Shen is likely still years away from pushing for any action in Boston, but the AHL’s Providence Bruins look to be a Calder Cup contender this year and Shen should have both the talent and veteran guidance around him to learn the North American game quickly and begin to make an impact. The likeness is not fair just yet, but Bruins fans will hope to soon compare Shen to another well-known late-round Pavel out of Russia.

Tampa Bay, Dallas Among Teams Facing Contract Limit Crunch

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are not only up against the NHL’s $81.5MM salary cap upper limit, but also the league’s 50-contract limit. They’re not alone either; in addition to the Bolts, the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings, Ottawa Senators, and Anaheim Ducks each have 48 players already signed to contracts next season as well. Six other teams have 46 or 47 players signed. The closer a club gets to 50, the less roster flexibility they have during the season. When it comes to making trades, claiming players on waivers, or signing college or junior free agents, teams without room can be hamstrung and forced to either pass up on possibilities or make desperation moves to free up roster space. It’s not an ideal situation and could force more than a few teams to make a move or two as the summer wears on.

Tampa Bay is in the worst position of all, as not only do they have just two contract slots available, but they also have two NHL regulars who remain unsigned restricted free agents in need of contracts – Brayden Point and Adam Erne. It’s hard to imagine that the Lightning, who also need to open up considerable cap space, don’t move out a player or two to help clear things up in both regards. One other possible saving grace could be sending 2019 first-round pick Nolan Foote or fellow prospect forward Gabriel Fortier back to their respective junior teams. Even if under contract, 18- and 19-year-old junior players who are still slide-eligible do not count against the 50-contract limit once returned to the junior level. If Foote and/or Fortier don’t crack the Tampa lineup, they would additionally clear up some room. A surefire contender, who also could use some affordable support where they can get it, the Bolts will definitely be a player on the trade and waiver markets this upcoming season, assuming they have the means to do so.

Dallas is in a similarly difficult situation. With just two contract slots available, the Stars need to re-sign (or do something with) defenseman Julius Honka. If the team signs Honka or trades him for another signed player or prospect, they are down to just one open space. Fortunately, unsigned RFA Niklas Hansson is expected to spend the season in Sweden and will not need a contract to become Dallas’ 50th man. Junior forwards Ty Dellandrea and Riley Damiani would also no longer count against the contract limit if sent back to their respective teams, although many in Dallas would like to see Dellandrea push for a spot on the roster.

L.A. has just one unsigned RFA remaining, promising forward Adrian Kempe, so they aren’t in danger to hit 50 at this time. The Kings also have a number of young players under contract who will battle for roster spots, which could force Akil Thomas back to juniors for one more year, removing his contract from the mix. L.A. has been a highly active team on the college free agent market of late and will want some contract room later in the season for potential additions.

Similarly, Ottawa has just Colin White left to sign, so barring further additions are not at risk of hitting 50 contracts. However, the Senators are just narrowly over the league’s salary cap floor, which could prompt them to add another contract so that they don’t have to risk falling below the floor during the year due to a trade. Right now, only Jonathan Gruden is a candidate to go back to junior and remove his contract from limit calculations, so if Ottawa does make another addition, they’ll likely look to make a subtraction or two as well to remain flexible in-season.

The final team at 48 contracts is the Ducks. Fortunately for them, Anaheim has no one left to sign and by all accounts are not looking to make any other moves this off-season. They should be safe, but may look to move a contract just in case the opportunities present themselves to add on during the season.

One team who isn’t at all worried about the contract limit: the New Jersey Devils. New Jersey currently has just 39 players under contract, third least behind Carolina and Winnipeg, but also have just two unsigned RFA’s in need of contracts while the Hurricanes and Jets each have a handful. The Devils project to enter the season with the fewest players under contract, as well the smallest payroll other than Ottawa. That could change though, as the team continues to be included in rumors pertaining to many of the top unsigned UFA’s and top trade targets this summer.

Arbitration Breakdown: Evan Rodrigues

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Already, two players have gone to hearing and are awaiting an arbitrator’s decision: the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp and the Washington Capitals’ Christian Djoos. The next possibility is Buffalo Sabres forward Evan Rodrigues, whose hearing is scheduled for Tuesday morning. Rodrigues really only has a season and half of experience as a regular player, but after an outstanding second half on 2017-18, he has established himself as a bona fide NHL talent and has plenty of ammunition ready for an arbitration battle. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Evan Rodrigues

Career Statistics: 154 games played, 21 goals, 41 assists, 62 points, -22 rating
Platform Statistics: 74 games played, 9 goals, 20 assists, 29 points, -7 rating

Filing Numbers: Rodrigues – One year, $2.65MM, Sabres – One year, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.075MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Six Forward: among top six Sabres forwards in points and assists per game and points and assists total in platform season; fourth among Sabres forwards in ATOI in platform season; fourth in total shots and shots per game in platform season (victim of abnormally low shooting percentage)
  • Dependable Player: regular role on power play and penalty kill in platform season; third in face-offs taken in platform season; 59% defensive zone starts in platform season

Potential Comparable Players:

Melker Karlsson (2017)
Career Statistics: 185 games played, 34 goals, 31 assists, 65 points, +9 rating
Platform Statistics: 67 games played, 11 goals, 11 assists, 22 points, +7 rating
Salary: $2MM

  • Player’s argument: Rodrigues has better career points per game; Rodrigues has better points per game in platform season; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Karlsson is better career goal scorer; Karlsson did not have same opportunity in platform season – ATOI, power play ATOI, line mate talent; Karlsson is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI

Alex Iafallo (2019)
Career Statistics: 157 games played, 24 goals, 34 assists, 58 points, -7 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 15 goals, 18 assists, 33 points, -17 rating
Salary: $2.425MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season and career (over very similar NHL experience); Rodrigues with slightly better career points per game in less ATOI career; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium
  • Team’s counter: Iafallo has two full seasons of NHL experience and top-six minutes; Iafallo has better goal scoring numbers in platform season and career; Iafallo is more physical player

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Top-Six Forward: offensive numbers do not match up with top-six production league wide – role is product of thin Sabres roster last season; outside top six Sabres forwards in goal scoring, power plat ATOI
  • Limited Upside: regression in platform season – .52 points per game to .39 points per game; not a goal scorer – low career goal totals, shooting percentage; poor face-off numbers; limited experience at advanced age

Potential Comparable Players:

Bryan Rust (2018)
Career Statistics: 181 games, 33 goals, 46 assists, 79 points, +13 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games, 13 goals, 25 assists, 38 points, +11 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Rust has better career offensive totals an per game numbers; Rust has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Rust is better defensive player – plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI; Rust has considerable postseason experience, production, and achievement
  • Player’s counter: Rust’s AAV is considerably higher than midpoint; Rodrigues’ career-high games played is higher than Rust’s – more dependable player; Rodrigues is a center – deserves a premium

J.T. Compher (2019)
Career Statistics:  156 games played, 32 goals, 28 assists, 60 points, -37 rating
Platform Statistics: 66 games played, 16 goals, 16 assists, 32 points, -7 rating
Salary: $3.5MM

  • Team’s argument: Compher had far better per game offensive numbers in platform season; Compher has better career goal-scoring numbers; Compher is better defensive player – hits, blocked shots, face-off success, shorthanded ATOI; Compher is considerably younger
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, Rodrigues has a pretty good chance in this case. Although Rodrigues’ numbers may very well be a product of a top-six role that he will no longer have moving forward, the Sabres can’t show that in a hearing and thus must deal with the fact that they needed him in that capacity over the last season and a half. There is a strong argument to be made that each of these comparable players is better than Rodrigues, but the fact that their cap numbers are at or above the midpoint, Rust and Compher substantially so, is a major benefit to the player side. Even if Buffalo can hammer home the point that Rust and Compher are much better players with far superior platform seasons, they will likely struggle to drive the price too far past Iafallo’s $2.425MM. He and Rodrigues are incredibly similar. Unless the Sabres get really creative with other comparable players, expect a potential decision to land in that range, between $2.3-2.5MM.

Snapshots: Off-Season, College Free Agents, Bratislava

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Three weeks into free agency, it’s fair to begin analyzing how teams have improved this off-season, even though there are still several notable UFA’s who remain unsigned. The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn did just that, using his predictive model to look at which team has done the most this summer. Topping the list, unsurprisingly, are the New York Rangers, who have added Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba, Kaapo Kakko, and Adam Fox among others. Although some have been critical of their contract details, the Florida Panthers come in a close second after adding Sergei Bobrovsky, Anton Stralman, Brett Connolly, and Noel Acciari. The Vancouver Canucks (Tyler Myers, J.T. Miller, Micheal Ferland), Chicago Blackhawks (Robin Lehner, Calvin de Haan, Olli Maatta), and Washington Capitals (Radko Gudas, Richard Panik, Garnet Hathaway) round out the top five off-season performers, per Luszczyszyn. His bottom team, very obviously, is the Columbus Blue Jackets, who faced an almost-impossible task of improving with Panarin, Bobrovsky, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel all hitting the open market. The addition of Gustav Nyquist is a nice move, but not enough to keep them from being the team that was hurt the most this summer. Even the nearest team, the San Jose Sharks, are not that close in terms of projected wins lost, and they have added no new players of note this summer. Fortunately, for Columbus and several other teams who have failed to improve but have the cap space to do so, there are a number of good players still available in free agency and salary cap crunches and restricted free agent dilemmas across the league will likely force substantial talent onto the trade block before the new season gets underway.

  • Another way that teams may be able to improve this summer is by adding some soon-to-be-available college free agents next month. While it’s not the most talented class and lacks any star standouts like years past, the August NCAA group could provide some minor league depth a potential NHL upside to a number of teams. Expect Quinnipiac offensive blue liner Chase Priskie to be the most sought-after target. The following are the players set to become free agents on August 15th, along with the team that drafted them:

F Brent Gates, University of Minnesota (ANA)
D Steven Ruggiero, Lake Superior State University (ANA)
F Christopher Brown, Boston University (BUF) – signed to AHL deal with WBS
D Ivan Chukarov, University of Massachusetts (BUF)
F Max Willman, Boston University (BUF)
F Beau Starrett, Cornell University (CHI)
G Chase Perry, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (DET)
D Vincent Desharnais, Providence College (EDM) – signed to AHL deal with Bakersfield
F J.D. Dudek, Boston College (EDM)
G Hayden Hawkey, Providence College (EDM)
F Joe Wegwerth, University of Notre Dame (FLA)
D Nick Boka, University of Michigan (MIN) – signed to AHL deal with Iowa
D Jack Sadek, University of Minnesota (MIN) – signed to AHL deal with Iowa
D Nikolas Koberstein, University of Alaska-Fairbanks (MTL)
F Thomas Novak, University of Minnesota (NSH) – signed to AHL deal with Milwaukee
D Miles Gendron, University of Connecticut (OTT) – signed to AHL deal with Belleville
F Brendan Warren, University of Michigan (PHI) – signed to ECHL deal with Indy
F Jacob Jackson, Michigan Tech University (SJS)
G Jake Kupsky, Union College (SJS)
F Marcus Vela, University of New Hampshire (SJS)
D Chase Priskie, Quinnipiac University (WSH)
F Steven Spinner, University of Nebraska-Omaha (WSH)

  • HC Slovan Bratislava is enjoying an active off-season, signing eight players, but it’s still unclear where they’ll be playing next season. Bratislava announced in May that it would be leaving the KHL and re-joining the Slovakina Extraliga. However, Slovakian news source Sport.SK says that it’s not that simple. The club owes a total debt of $3MM to 60 players who were not fully compensated when Bratislava last played for their national league. Until that debt is square, the league could block their re-entry. As of now, Bratislava has offered to pay 30% of the debt up front and then negotiate payment schedules with the former players to cover the rest of the outstanding debt. The league has until August 7th to make a decision about the team’s future, either granting them a license to participate or not, but in the meantime they have officially signed eight players with the expectation of playing this season and Sport.SK reports that at least seven more are waiting to sign on. One such player waiting to see how things play out is former NHL defenseman Andrej Meszaros, who captained the team over the past three years in the KHL. One would expect the most well-known pro team in Slovakia to gain entrance back into the top native league, but unpaid player salaries is a sensitive issue in Europe and there could be more hoops to jump through before anything becomes official.

Evan Rodrigues, Buffalo Sabres Exchange Arbitration Figures

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In a strange twist, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the Buffalo Sabres and RFA forward Evan Rodrigues have exchanged arbitration figures ahead of their scheduled Tuesday hearing. The timeline is actually appropriate for both sides, but oddly the information comes out while the three cases scheduled for Monday – Florida’s MacKenzie Weegar, Pittsburgh’s Zach Aston-Reese, and Washington’s Christian Djoos – have yet to have their filing numbers leaked. Regardless, the numbers are in for Buffalo and Rodrigues. The player side has filed at $2.65MM and the team side has filed at $1.5MM. The resulting midpoint for the case is $2.075MM.  It is important to remember that not only can the two sides still negotiate a different deal in the time remaining (and even for a short period after the hearing), the arbitration decision also does not need to be one figure or the other. The award can (and usually does) fall somewhere in the middle of the submitted salaries.

Rodrigues, who turns 26 next week, has been a project player for the Sabres that has panned out over the past two seasons. A highly productive college player at Boston University, who put up a whopping 61 points in 41 games skating alongside Jack Eichel in his senior year, Rodrigues was a no-brainer as an undrafted free agent signing for Buffalo in 2015. However, he played in only two NHL games as a first-year pro and was very quiet through 30 NHL games in year two. In total, he notched only eight points in his first 32 NHL games. That all changed in 2017-18, when Rodrigues took advantage of a mid-season call-up to record 25 points in 48 games to finish among the Sabres’ top six forwards in per game production. Handed a regular role this season, Rodrigues continued to impress with a career-high nine goals and 29 points in 74 games.

The debate moving forward – which is difficult in arbitration, where projections are not allowed – is what Rodrigues’ ceiling will be. Although his total points increased in 2018-19, it was a modest gain considering he played in 26 more games. However, Rodrigues’ side can point to an unusually low 5.4% shooting percentage, though the argument may not carry much weight. Instead, the real benefit to the player side is that Rodrigues proved he can be a regular contributor. The slick center skated in almost 16 minutes per night, fourth-most among Buffalo forwards, was third in face-offs taken (although he was not very successful), and again finished among the top six scoring forwards.

It’s hard to argue that Rodrigues is not a useful forward, but the Sabres can make a strong argument that his usage was a function of a thin roster up front and his production given his minutes and role are not exactly stunning. He failed to show that his 2017-18 breakout was a level of output that he was capable of continuing. Instead, Rodrigues is likely a bottom-six forward for most NHL teams rather than the top-six forward he has been for Buffalo over the past season and a half. The team will try to make the case that he should be paid as such. Given their additions of Marcus Johansson and Jimmy Vesey this summer, the Sabres may very well have plans to move Rodrigues further down in the lineup, but again that is not an argument they can make at hearing. It’s a curious case that could make for a fascinating back-and-forth in front of the arbitrator.

Arbitration Breakdown: Andrew Copp

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings were scheduled to begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

After the Carolina Hurricanes and Brock McGinn settled this morning, just before their scheduled hearing, the Winnipeg Jets’ Andrew Copp became next in line. Ironically, he and McGinn are very similar players with very similar filing number midpoints in their cases. The Jets and Copp are farther apart than were the ’Canes and McGinn, and Copp’s agent has been open about intending to settle that dispute through arbitration, so a hearing is more likely than not. A Copp hearing would be very similar to what a McGinn hearing would have been, including many shared comparable players, now including McGinn. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Andrew Copp

Career Statistics: 293 games played, 36 goals, 48 assists, 84 points, +55 rating
Platform Statistics: 69 games played, 11 goals, 14 assists, 25 points, +20 rating

Filing Numbers: Copp – One year, $2.9MM, Jets – Two years, $1.5MM (midpoint: $2.2MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Top-Nine Forward: among top nine Jets forwards in goals per game, assists per game, points per game, and total points in platform season; consistent improvement in scoring numbers every season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Jets forwards in plus/minus by wide margin; regular shorthanded role; strong face-off numbers

Potential Comparable Players:

Brock McGinn (2019)
Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.1MM

  • Player’s argument: very similar career offensive totals; Copp had better per game offensive numbers in the platform season; Copp has more experience; Copp has far superior career plus/minus; Copp is a center, valued more than winger
  • Team’s counter: McGinn has better career per-game scoring; McGinn has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Johan Larsson (2019)
Career Statistics: 331 games played, 32 goals, 47 assists, 79 points, -49 rating
Platform Statistics: 73 games played, 6 goals, 8 assists, 14 points, -8 rating
Salary: $1.55MM

  • Player’s argument: Copp has far better offensive totals and per game numbers in platform season; Copp has better career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp has far better career and platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Larsson’s salary is considerably below midpoint; Larsson has more experience; Larsson has better defensive numbers – hits, blocked shots, takeaways, shorthanded ATOI

Team Side

Themes:

  • Not a Reliable Player: two seasons out of four with less than 70 games played due to injury; drop-off in ATOI in platform season; no role on power play, second penalty kill unit; scores in bunches, suffers droughts
  • Not a Key Defensive Player: outside top five Jets forwards in hits, blocked shots, and takeaways; fourth in total face-offs taken; one of seven Jets forwards with at least one minute of shorthanded ATOI; prone to turnovers

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has far better career per game offensive numbers; Armia had far better per game offensive numbers in platform; similar defensive numbers; Armia creates turnovers, Copp prone to turning puck over
  • Player’s counter: Copp has more experience and more consistent games played; Copp is a center, valued more than a winger

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Team’s argument: Laughton had better platform season; Laughton is better defensive player – more face-offs, hits, blocked shots, shorthanded ATOI ; Laughton has been more consistent contributor
  • Player’s counter: very similar career offensive totals and per game numbers; Copp is superior goal scorer; Copp has far superior plus/minus; very similar age and size; same position and shot side

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, this case is dead even. As similar as Copp is to McGinn, his side should be able to make a solid case that he is the better offensive player. In fact, Copp and Laughton are extremely similar offensive players and both sides could wind up using Laughton as a comparable player. That situation would greatly benefit Copp, as Laughton’s $2.3MM salary is on his side of the midpoint and there’s a fair case to be made that Copp is better goal-scorer than Laughton. Where Copp’s side could fall short is in emphasizing his defensive prowess, as he falls short against most comparable and several teammates. It’s hard to see Copp far surpassing Laughton or falling well below McGinn, so expect him to land a deal in the $2-2.35MM range.

Snapshots: Maroon, Rantanen, Ryczek, Puutio

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Defending Stanley Cup champion Patrick Maroon tells NHL.com’s Lou Korac that “it’s tough right now” for veterans to find a contract. Given the meager increase of the salary cap and the immense number of restricted free agents still unsigned, there has been a considerable break in unrestricted free agent signings over the past week or two. 14 of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents still remain available, including Maroon, with little chatter pertaining to any of them. Maroon at least offers a glimmer of hope for his own situation, also informing Korac that he has had discussions with GM Doug Armstrong about a return to his hometown St. Louis Blues, saying that they’ve “had good conversations.” However, the Blues still have four RFA’s to sign, including three potential arbitration cases in Joel Edmundson, Oskar Sundqvist, and Ville Husso. Maroon will also be looking for fair value from St. Louis after taking a hometown discount last summer and becoming a key contributor for the team down the stretch and in the postseason. An extension won’t come easy for either side, but both parties and fans would surely like to see Maroon back in town next season. He and other unsigned veterans may just have to wait a while longer for offers to finally come through.

  • On the off chance that RFA Mikko Rantanen and the Colorado Avalanche cannot come to terms on an extension this summer, his KHL rights holder is preparing their pursuit. However, it’s not exactly a Godfather offer. Sport Express’ Igor Eronko reports that Ak Bars Kazan is willing to offer Rantanen a one-year, $4MM contract. While Eronko notes the lower tax rate in Russia and lack of escrow concerns, it’s still a very underwhelming number for a 22-year-old star forward coming off back-to-back 80+ point seasons. The Avalanche would be happy to top that salary, even taking the differences in tax and escrow into consideration. Rantanen is well within his right to be seeking a long-term contract with an AAV of $10MM+ or at least a bridge deal in the $8MM range, so Ak Bars’ offer is unlikely to move the needle toward a return to Europe.
  • Chicago Blackhawks prospect Jake Ryczek will have to prove himself in the AHL before earning an entry-level contract. The 21-year-old defenseman has signed a one-year deal with Chicago’s affiliate, the Rockford Ice Hogs, the team announced. Ryczek was a 2016 seventh-round pick, expected to be a long-term project developing at Providence College. Instead, Ryczek left the Friars midway through his freshman year and joined the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads. The problem now is that Ryczek has aged out of the junior level with just a year and half of QMJHL experience and is still a raw prospect. Rather than use a limited roster spot to sign an unproven commodity, the Blackhawks will see what he can do in the AHL for the time being. Ryczek remains Chicago’s exclusive property until June 1st of next year.
  • The first overall pick in the CHL Import Draft has signed. Finnish defenseman Kasper Puutio, taken at No. 1 by the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos in June, has officially joined the team. Puutio began turning heads this past season when he was called up to the top level of Finland’s junior ranks at the age of 16 and performed well to boot. Draft source Future Considerations ranks Puutio as the No. 67 prospect for the 2020 NHL Draft in their early initial rankings, but some have called him a first-round caliber player, and that was before he joined the Canadian junior ranks. If he can continue to grow and produce in the more competitive WHL as a very young prospect, he could easily climb into the top 31 picks next year. Either way, the Broncos hope that they can take advantage of his puck-moving ability and competent defensive game for several years to come.

Lucic-Neal Notes: Conditions, Buyouts, Vancouver

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The Flames and Oilers may have become pioneers in the ways of NHL trades today, completing the Milan Lucic–James Neal trade with an extraordinary condition on the draft pick included by Edmonton. In addition to sending Lucic to Calgary, the Oilers also retained part of his salary and added a conditional 2020 third-round pick to the deal. It took some time, even after the formal announcement, to reveal what those conditions were. The first, which is very specific but not unheard of, is that Neal must score 21 goals next season. The second is somewhat more convoluted: Neal must also score 10+ more goals than Lucic next season as well. By all accounts, a conditional pick transfer based on two players’ performances relative to one another has never before been attempted in the NHL. Yet, it has immediately turned some heads and has many asking whether this is the future of trading. Will we begin to see other general mangers hedging their bets by sending conditional picks based on whether or not the trade works out as expected? If both teams agree to the deal, wagering on whether one player will outperform the other, then there does not seem to be a problem. It can be added insurance for the team adding the player who would be expected to be better on paper, while being a nice scenario for the other, who either get a draft pick or an unexpectedly strong performance out of their new acquisition. It seems to be a classic win-win-win, wherein both teams win and we the viewers win by having another story line to follow throughout the year. The Flames and Oilers may have opened the door to a new line of through when it comes to conditional draft picks.

  • Now that Lucic and Neal are on new teams, the question becomes how long will they stay in these new locales if their play does not improve. Many thought the Oilers would never be able to trade Lucic’s contract, so it’s hard to imagine that the Flames would be able to if his struggles continue next season. However, a buyout remains an unsavory idea next off-season as well. The move would cost Calgary $4.8MM/$3.5MM/$4.8MM in the first three years, which is hardly a savings from his now-adjusted $5.25MM cap hit. Neal is another matter on both both points though. Even if Neal has another bad season, one would imagine that his trade value would not be totally gone give the astonishing consistency he played with for most of his career until landing with the Flames. An Oilers team that could very well miss the playoffs again next season may not be a fair metric either as to whether or not Neal is truly done. However, if a trade market does not develop, a Neal buyout is somewhat palatable for Edmonton. Next summer, a buyout would cost $1.92MM each year for six years. It’s not an ideal scenario, but for a cap-strapped team looking to open their championship window, a penalty of less than $2MM for six years may not hurt as badly as $5.75MM for three years.
  • Now that this trade is final, the rumors of a Lucic-Loui Eriksson swap can finally be put to rest. One of the most popular rumors this off-season, the disgruntled Eriksson wanted out of Vancouver and Lucic was open to the idea of a return to his hometown, prompting many to suggest the former Boston Bruins stars could be exchanged for one another. Yet, Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal asked Lucic today if at any point he had been approached about waiving his No-Movement Clause for a move to the Canucks. His response: “No never. There was never a trade to Vancouver as far as I’m concerned.” It seems that a deal, including Eriksson or anyone else, never actually came together to bring the native power forward home. Lucic is in Calgary now, but Eriksson and the Canucks are both still hoping to find a new home for the veteran forward before next season.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brock McGinn

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Salary arbitration season is underway, as hearings begin on July 20th and extend through August 4th. While arbitration awards are very infrequent, with most cases settling beforehand, occasionally a binding decision is handed down by the arbitrator. What goes on behind closed doors before that point? The players, aided by their representation and the NHLPA, and their respective teams, aided by a select group of lawyers, each file at a certain salary over a one- or two-year term. The arbitrator may decide on any salary at or between those two points, based on the arguments in each sides’ written brief and oral presentation. While both sides will have themes to base their arguments on, rather than debate only the merits of the player, the bulk of the conversation in an arbitration hearing instead centers around comparable players. Each side will use a tailored group of statistical ranges, both career and platform year numbers, to show how the player compares to similar recent arbitration-eligible players. All statistics are available to use, but their persuasiveness is the key. The player side will look to show that the player is superior to a group of players at a salary lower than their filing number, while the team side will look to show that player is inferior to a group of players above their filing number. Whoever makes the most convincing argument will land the favorable decision.

Brock McGinn of the Carolina Hurricanes was the first arbitration filing to become public this off-season and fittingly landed an early hearing date. Barring a last-minute settlement, in less than 24 hours he will also be the first player to go through the arbitration process this summer. Here is a closer look at his case:

The Case of Brock McGinn

Career Statistics: 240 games played, 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points, -27 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 10 goals, 16 assists, 26 points, +10 rating

Filing Numbers: McGinn – One year, $2.7MM, Hurricanes – One year, $1.75MM (midpoint: $2.225MM)

Player Side

Themes:

  • Regular Contributor: played in all 82 games in platform season, 162 of last 164; top-nine Hurricanes forward in ATOI, points, and shots in platform season
  • Key Defensive Player: led Hurricanes forwards in shorthanded ATOI; among top-four Hurricanes forwards in plus/minus, hits, blocked shots, and takeaways

Potential Comparable Players:

Scott Laughton (2019)
Career Statistics: 272 games played, 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points, -24 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games played, 12 goals, 20 assists, 32 points, -11 rating
Salary: $2.3MM

  • Player’s argument: better career points per game, better career total goals, better platform plus/minus
  • Team’s counter: Laughton had better platform season, Laughton is better defensive player, Laughton’s salary reflects a premium for center position

Zack Kassian (2017)
Career Statistics: 313 games played, 45 goals, 53 assists, 98 points, -21 rating
Platform Statistics: 79 games played, 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, +4 rating
Salary: $1.95MM

  • Player’s argument: better platform, higher points per game career, more consistent goal scorer, better defensive numbers
  • Team’s counter: similar points per game career, Kassian had close to full season more experience

Team Side

Themes:

  • Fourth-line forward: outside top-nine Hurricanes forwards in even strength ATOI, no role on the power play
  • Not a reliable goal scorer: low shooting percentage (8.1% platform, 9.4% career), tied for 12th among Hurricanes forwards in goals per game; no game-winning goals or overtime goals in regular season
  • Regression: goals, points, shooting percentage, ATOI all down in platform season from year prior

Potential Comparable Players:

Joel Armia (2019)
Career Statistics: 237 games, 39 goals, 42 assists, 81 points, -3 rating
Platform Statistics: 57 games, 13 goals, 10 assists, 23 points, even rating
Salary: $2.6MM

  • Team’s argument: Armia has better career points per game, Armia has far better platform, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: better career-high goals, better physical game

Artturi Lehkonen (2019)
Career Statistics: 221 games, 41 goals, 39 assists, 80 points, -2 rating
Platform Statistics: 82 games, 11 goals, 20 assists, 31 points, +10 rating
Salary: $2.4MM

  • Team’s argument: Lehkonen has better career and platform points per game, Lehkonen has better career and platform goals, Lehkonen has more consistent offensive numbers, similarly low shooting percentage – Lehkonen more involved offensively, similar defensive numbers
  • Player’s counter: different styles of player – Lehkonen far less physical, Lehkonen’s career and platform numbers inflated by substantially more ice time

Prediction

This is not an exhaustive list of possible comparable players, but based on the player side and team side filing numbers and the resulting midpoint, the Carolina Hurricanes have a stronger case with the comparable players available than does Brock McGinn. Expect a potential decision to be in the $2-2.2MM range.

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