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Archives for July 2018

Snapshots: Hossa, Zadina, Brassard

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The Chicago Blackhawks have been quieter than usual this offseason and one reason that has been the case is that while it has some cap room to work with, the team didn’t have enough to make a major splash in free agency. The team had been linked at one time or another to players such as James van Riemsdyk, James Neal and David Perron, but were unable to work out a deal and a lot of that has to do with cap space. With its minor moves made after free agency began when the team inked Chris Kunitz, Cam Ward and Brandon Manning, the team only has just over $2MM to work with.

That’s where the contract of Marian Hossa comes in. His contract of $5.275MM is still stuck on the books for yet another offseason until the team can put it on LTIR to free up the money at the start of the NHL season. That’s what Chicago did last season, using that money to sign defenseman Cody Franson and using it on shuttling AHL talent back and forth all season. However, that didn’t work, according to The Athletic’s Scott Powers.

The general belief was the team wasn’t going to make the same mistake twice and would attempt to deal the bloated contract to a team that needs the contract to get them to the cap floor. However, there haven’t been any takers as teams want an asset in return for them to take on the 39-year-old’s contract, which the Blackhawks don’t want to do. They were burned back in 2016 when they threw in Teuvo Teravainen to Carolina to get the Hurricanes to take Bryan Bickell’s final year of his contract off their books. Teravainen put up 64 points this season.

One way or another, especially if the team still has plans to make a big offseason move, is to find a way to get Hossa and his contract permanently off their books, even if they have to give up a prospect.

  • With questions surrounding where prized 2018 first-rounder Filip Zadina may end up if he doesn’t make the Detroit Red Wings NHL lineup next season has been up for debate as there are rumors that the sixth-overall pick does not have to return to his junior team next season and could be eligible to jump right to the AHL. However, regardless on how the NHL decides that case, NBC Sports James O’Brien writes that it shouldn’t even matter. He writes that the team shouldn’t want Zadina to make the team next season as the team’s main focus should be to garner another high-end lottery pick next season to complete their rebuild. A 25-goal season by the flashy winger, who many had pegged as the No. 3 pick in the draft, could vault the team to that unenviable position of not being good enough to make the playoffs, but not being bad enough to get an elite prospect either. O’Brien hopes that the addition of free agent Thomas Vanek might help force Zadina to get much needed development time in the minors, no matter where he ends up.
  • Paul Zeise of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that while he envisions the Pittsburgh Penguins keeping Phil Kessel, who has been rumored to be moved out for much of the offseason, he could see the team move on from trade deadline acquisition Derick Brassard. The team suddenly has five centers and of them all Brassard is the most expendable. He has one year remaining on his deal at $3MM, but struggled to produce once he got to Pittsburgh, especially in the playoffs, posting just four points in 12 playoff games.

Canucks’ Offseason Signings Were Critical To Improve Team

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The Vancouver Canucks dealt with a lot of criticism when free agency started last week when they went out and signed bottom-six players Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel and Tim Schaller to long-term deals (Beagle & Roussel got four years, while Schaller signed for two). While the general addition of these three players was to add some size, grit and leadership to an incredibly young team, there is another key advantage of bringing in those three, especially with their abilities to help with penalty killing. Both Beagle and Schaller were solid contributors to their teams last season on the penalty kill and they both will bring those skills to Vancouver now.

“We’ve added some players which is, I think, important. We need guys who can kill penalties,” Vancouver head coach Travis Green said. “The longer you’re in the league, the better the penalty killer you are. Some won’t understand what that means, but there’s a lot of reading plays, and making changes on the fly that you get better at over time. It’s an art learned. You don’t see a lot of young guys come in who are great penalty killers.”

The hope is that Beagle and Schaller should improve the team’s 21st-ranked penalty killing unit, which must improve dramatically if the team wants to start winning. However, their signings also have another key importance to the team.

Perhaps more than anyone, the most likely benefactor to these signings will be center Bo Horvat, who has always been forced to take penalty killing minutes in the past as part of his responsibilities. However with the retirement of Henrik Sedin, suddenly Horvat’s responsibilities have changed, according to Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Sun. The team needs more scoring without the Sedin twins and the team will turn to their four-year pro to take his game to that next level and reducing his minutes on the penalty kill should only help him carry that out.

Horvat’s numbers have been solid, but now that he’s likely moving into the No. 1 center position, he must continue to improve. The 23-year-old has increased his scoring over the past four years, going from 14 goals in his rookie campaign, to 16, then 20 and this year posting 22 goals, even though he played in the least amount of games in his career (64).

That grit created by Beagle and Roussel especially should benefit someone like Elias Pettersson, who the team hopes will become one of the next great scorers in Vancouver. However, while the 19-year-old is 6-foot-2, he weighs in at 161 pounds and the presence of one of those players could remind other teams to stay away from their prized prospect.

 

Columbus’ Panarin Likely To Be Next Star Player On The Move

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With many contract extensions already in the books and the realization by the Ottawa Senators that Erik Karlsson needs to be traded, that might suggest to some fans that after Karlsson the superstar market might be closed for some time. Yet that isn’t the case as several players have not opted to sign extension yet, including players such as Dallas’ Tyler Seguin and most notably the Columbus Blue Jackets’ Artemi Panarin.

The 26-year-old has only played in the league for three years, but has made it count, totaling 88 goals and 233 points in that span. Now after recent comments suggesting that he isn’t willing to sign an extension “as of now,” there is plenty of doubt that a long-term deal with the winger is even likely. In fact, while he has not requested a trade, it looks like he’s trying to force his way out of Columbus.

Panarin’s agent Dan Milstein clarified initial statements in a Q&A with Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription required). He says it has nothing to do with his love for the team, but more on where he wants to play for the next seven or eight years.

“… (Panarin’s) biggest thing is … he loves the team, he loves the coach,” Milstein said. “It’s not the team or the way they treat him. It’s about, does he want to spend the next eight years in Columbus? That’s the only thing at stake right now. If it was a two-year deal we probably would have done it. But it isn’t a two-year deal. It’s gonna have to be an extended, seven- or eight-year deal put in place.”

Columbus may not be the right fit for Panarin if he’s looking for exposure, considering that he chose to sign his initial tw0-year, entry-level deal with the Chicago Blackhawks, who had already won a Stanley Cup in 2013 and were on the verge of winning their second weeks after they signed him in 2015. Columbus lacks the geographical market as a impact city, while the team’s success has also been an issue as they’ve reached the playoffs just four times in the history of the team (albeit, twice in the past two years). However, the team is neither a place where free agents frequently want to come to and despite recent success, the team still isn’t viewed as a team that can contend for a Stanley Cup.

While the Blue Jackets have reportedly been “testing the market” for Panarin, so far little movement has occurred, according to Milstein. However, when directly asked what the chances are that Panarin signs with Columbus, Milstein said he would suggest the Blue Jackets trade him.

“He doesn’t want me to negotiate yet, so you know … if I was the Blue Jackets, I would do the same thing (consider trades),” Milstein said.

Metropolitan Notes: Johnson, Myers, Rangers

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While defensemen have been receiving big deals in the last week or two, one deal that caught many by surprise was the five-year, $16.25MM deal that Jack Johnson signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins signed on July 1. While Johnson was a highly-touted prospect at one time and developed into a solid NHL veteran, the five-year term seemed like a lot considering that the 31-year-old had lost his job at the end of the season with the Columbus Blue Jackets and instead took up a role as a healthy scratch for the remainder of the season and the playoffs. Johnson finished the year posting

Regardless, Penguins general manager Jim Rutherford had coaches’ Mike Sullivan and Sergei Gonchar look into the three games leading up to Johnson’s benching and they walked away with a positive impression and the team signed the veteran.

The Athletic’s Jesse Marshall (subscription required) took a look at the three games before Johnson was benched and analyzes and breaks down the veteran’s play, citing that his performance was solid, but underwhelming and while the defenseman did have some bad luck at times, what stood out the most was his lack of involvement in the team’s offense as he seems to only have been focusing on his defensive game, which might be exactly what Rutherford and the Penguins want out of Johnson.

  • Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Philadelphia Flyers’ signing of Christian Folin almost guarantees that defensive prospect Philippe Myers will begin the season with the AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms. The 21-year-old undrafted free agent had a solid rookie season with the Phantoms last season and was expected to get a “long look” in Flyers training camp in September. However, with six quality NHL established defenseman already on the roster (not counting the injured Samuel Morin), Myers would have to beat one of them out to make the team. General manager Ron Hextall wouldn’t allow Myers to make the team as the team’s seventh defenseman when he could return to Lehigh Valley and get valuable playing experience. So, while many were upset that the team went out and signed Folin, it’s likely that Folin will man that extra defenseman role instead.
  • The New York Rangers have been talked about as a potential third-team in any deal involving Erik Karlsson. The team has $23.7MM in cap room to work with and with the team in a quick rebuild, this would be the perfect time to add more picks or prospects to that effort. While the team might be open to acquiring Ryan Callahan from Tampa Bay, The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello (subscription required) writes that the team will not take on the contract of veteran Bobby Ryan, who still has four years at $7.25MM remaining on his deal. He writes that the Rangers don’t believe they will still be rebuilding in three or four years and being burdened by that deal down the road wouldn’t make any sense.

Pacific Notes: Lucic, Valamaki, Steel

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After a disappointing season a year ago, Edmonton Oilers’ fans have taken their anger on high-priced winger Milan Lucic. After all, the 6-foot-3, 234-pound bruising winger was signed not only to protect their elite players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, but also to produce goals on the wing. That’s why the team signed him to a seven-year, $42MM deal back in 2016.

While Lucic showed the deal was a promising one after the first season when he tallied 23 goals and 50 points, he made the contract look like a disaster after last season when he managed just 10 goals and 34 points. Suddenly with five years remaining at $6MM AAV, and Lucic looking slower than he ever has, rumors have been flying about how Edmonton must get out of the deal which is suddenly weighing down the Oilers team and salary cap.

However, David Staples of the Edmonton Journal confirms rumors that Edmonton Oilers have no intention of moving him this offseason. The key problem is that no trade would be likely as few teams would be willing to take on that contract and if they did, it might cost Edmonton even more to dump it. However, Staples adds that what the Oilers need to do is have him settle into a lesser role with lesser expectations and allow him to produce a 35 to 40-point season and along with his defensive abilities as well as his physicality, teams will eventually call on him.

  • With the Calgary Flames having their development camp this weekend, Darren Haynes of the Canadian Press reports that the standout prospect so far has been 2017 first-round pick Jusso Valimaki. The 16th overall pick has been a force around the other prospects and Haynes speculates the 6-foot-2, 204-pound defenseman might make things interesting in September for the Flames. Valamaki posted 14 goals and 45 points in 44 games last year for Tri-City of the WHL, but showed his mettle in the playoffs when he put up four goals and 17 points in just 12 games.
  • Eric Stephens of The Athletic (subscription required) writes a profile on the Anaheim Ducks prospect Sam Steel, who has a legitimate chance to crack the Ducks’ opening day lineup this year, especially with recent question marks surrounding the availability of veteran Ryan Kesler. Steel, who won the WHL Player of the Year award after the 2016-17 season when he scored 50 goals and 131 points, failed to duplicate his success last year when he returned to the Regina Pats last season. Regardless, the 20-year-old has been focusing this summer on getting more explosion on his first step. Steel, whose junior career is now over, will either be with the San Diego Gulls of the AHL or he will be a rookie in the NHL.

Flyers Re-Sign Alex Lyon To A Two-Year Contract

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Sunday: Sam Carchidi of Philly.com reports that Lyon signed a two-year deal worth $750K per year.

Saturday: The Flyers have locked up one of their goaltending prospects, announcing that they’ve inked Alex Lyon to a two-year deal. Lyon had filed for salary arbitration earlier this week.

The 25-year-old spent most of last season with the Lehigh Valley Phantoms of the AHL, posting a 2.75 GAA and a .913 SV% in 27 regular season games.  He followed that up with a stellar showing in the postseason, highlighted by an AHL record 94 saves in a game that went to five overtimes in the Atlantic Division Finals.

Lyon also got into 11 games with the Flyers in 2017-18, his first NHL action.  He put up decent numbers for his inaugural stint with a 2.75 GAA and a .905 SV% although the team still opted to add Petr Mrazek down the stretch rather than count on Lyon to play as a starter when both Brian Elliott and Michal Neuvirth were injured.

As things stand, Lyon is set to battle for playing time in what should be a very crowded crease in Lehigh Valley.  Anthony Stolarz (also an RFA) is now healthy after missing most of last season with knee issues while top prospect Carter Hart is set to make his professional debut as well.  (Felix Sandstrom, while also signed and AHL eligible, is expected to play in the SHL next season.)  Although there are certainly question marks surrounding the viability of Philadelphia’s current goalie tandem on a long-term basis, they’re certainly not lacking prospects at that position.

The Salary Cap Implications Of A Shea Weber Early Retirement

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When Shea Weber signed a 14-year, $110MM offer sheet from the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012, everyone knew right away that it would end badly. Yes, Weber was 27 years old and one of the top defensemen in the league, but the contract was top-heavy and carried a $7.86MM cap hit through his age-40 season. The chances of him playing to a level matching that value over a full 14 years was very slim. The Flyers knew this and specifically structured it in a way that they hoped would scare the Nashville Predators and frugal GM David Poile away – it didn’t. The Predators had just watched Ryan Suter walk in free agency and couldn’t afford to let Weber leave as well. They matched the deal and held on to their superstar defenseman.

When Weber was then traded to the Montreal Canadiens for P.K. Subban in 2016, the risk in Weber’s contract increased exponentially. The league had since banned all similarly long-term contracts – setting a limit of seven years on the open market and eight years for an extension –  nevertheless the front-loaded, cap-circumventing type that Weber had signed. To combat teams continuing to front-load contracts, the NHL implemented salary cap recapture penalties. This system punishes teams for lengthening contracts with low-salary seasons in order to lower the cap hit during prime years by issuing a salary cap charge if the player retires prior to the end of the contract, thereby negating the years that lowered his cap hit. The calculation is the difference in total salary and total cap hit over the course of the contract with which the player played with the team, divided by the number of years remaining on the contract after retirement. In Weber’s case, the scenario looks like this:

Year           Team           Cap Hit           Salary           Difference
2012-13        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2013-14        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2014-15        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2015-16        NSH             $7.857MM        $14MM           $6.143MM
2016-17        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2017-18        MTL             $7.857MM        $12MM           $4.143MM
2018-19        MTL             $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2019-20       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2020-21       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2021-22       MTL*           $7.857MM        $6MM           -$1.857MM
2022-23       MTL*           $7.857MM        $3MM          -$4.857MM
2023-24       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2024-25       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM
2025-26       MTL*           $7.857MM        $1MM          -$6.857MM

So far over the course of Weber’s contract, both Nashville and Montreal have paid him far beyond what his cap hit would suggest. If Weber was to retire today, they would both be penalized. Nashville’s total penalty is $24.572MM, while Montreal’s is fluid. However, next season marks a drop for Weber below his cap number for the remaining eight years of his contract. Now, Weber is not going to retire this off-season. However, the chances that he retires early are very high. Earlier this week, it was reported that Weber had undergone a second off-season surgery and would likely be out until mid-season. Many expected when Weber was traded to Montreal that he still had many years left of strong play in him, but it appears that the deterioration of his body has already begun. Facing a decreasing salary for the remainder of his contract and concerns about his long-term health, it would be no surprise to see Weber retire in the next two years or so nevertheless by the end of the remaining eight years. By year, here is how the penalties would play out for both Nashville and Montreal:

If Weber retires before:      Penalty per year – NSH         Penalty per year – MTL
2019-20                                          $3.51MM                                              $918K
2020-21                                          $4.1MM                                                $762K
2021-22                                          $4.91MM                                              $543K
2022-23                                          $6.14MM                                             $215K
2023-24                                           $8.19MM                                             None
2024-25                                           $12.29MM                                           None
2025-26                                           $24.57MM                                           None

Obviously, the Predators have a lot to lose if Weber retires early. It is very unlikely that Weber, if he makes it that far, is likely to retire with one or even two years left on his contract. At that point, it is likely the Canadiens would just place him on long-term injured reserve to finish his career, as has become a growing trend in the NHL. However, if Weber is unable to get over the injuries that have plagued him in Montreal, could he call it quits within the next few years and stick Nashville with a $3.5-$5MM yearly penalty? Absolutely. It is a scary possibility for the Predators and a situation worth watching as Weber battles back from injury yet again next season and beyond.

All salary and cap figures are approximations. Data courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

San Jose Sharks Promote Tim Burke To Assistant GM

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The San Jose Sharks announced changes to their front office today with several moves coming in their scouting department. Highlighting these changes was the promotion of Tim Burke to Assistant General Manager. Burke joins long-time Assistant GM Joe Will working under GM Doug Wilson. It is a well-earned recognition for Burke, who has spent the past 20 years with the franchise.

Burke had previously served as the team’s Director of Scouting prior to his new promotion. As the Sharks pointed out in their press release, the team has owned the lowest average draft slot in the league over the past 15 years, but Burke and his staff have managed to uncover gems like Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, and Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Burke’s primary responsibility will continue to be evaluating amateur talent and orchestrating the draft for the Sharks, but he will also take a larger role in the evaluation of professional talent at all levels as well.

Replacing Burke as Director of Scouting is none other than Doug Wilson Jr., the GM’s son. Wilson Jr. is entering his seventh season with the team, most recently as the Sharks’ Director of Hockey Operations, and will continue his previous duties relating to the NHL Draft. Working with Burke, Wilson Jr. will hope to continue San Jose’s success of finding strong players in both the draft and undrafted free agency.

Free Agent Market Quiet For Veteran Defensemen

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Over one hundred free agents have signed a contract with a new team already this off-season. Of that group, just three of those signings are defenseman over the age of 30: the Pittsburgh Penguins’ Jack Johnson, the Vegas Golden Knights’ Nick Holden, and the Dallas Stars’ Roman Polak. While veteran goaltenders and forwards continue to garner major interest on the open market and land substantial contracts, it seems defenders of the same age and experience are not being valued similarly across the league. With the NHL trending more toward a speed and finesse game, older blue liners who depend on positional awareness and seasoned checking ability may no longer be able to compete for jobs with younger players at the position with fresh legs and an open mind.

Of PHR’s Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents, only nine remain unsigned. Two of those nine players – Rick Nash and Kris Versteeg – may not return to playing pro hockey. Of the seven remaining players, three are defenseman over the age of 30: Dan Hamhuis (#24), Toby Enstrom (#37), and Alexei Emelin (#42).  Good veteran defensemen are out there and make up some of the best available players, but are simply not drawing the interest that was expected. Other unsigned names include Brooks Orpik, Johnny Oduya, Kevin Bieksa, Dennis Seidenberg, Kyle Quincey, Paul Martin, Josh Gorges, and Jason Garrison, none of whom have made considerable noise on the rumor mill. 32-year-old Taylor Chorney even moved on to Switzerland due to a stagnant market for older defensemen.

Will several of these names sign an NHL contract prior to next season? Yes, however it’s unlikely that the majority will find meaningful employment if they haven’t already at this point in the summer. Of the remaining names, the most likely to land jobs are those closer to 30 without as much wear and tear on their bodies. The three players who have already found jobs – Johnson, Holden, and Polak – are all 32 or under. Emelin and Quincey at 32 have good odds, as do Enstrom and Gorges at 33. It would also be a major surprise if 35-year-old Hamhuis went unsigned. However, it would not be a shock to see only those five land a deal. This is a free agent market saturated in experienced, capable veteran defensemen, but few who can keep up with the NHL’s current pace of play. As a result, the supply greatly outweighs the demand and the free agent market for older blue liners could continue to remain quiet.

Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Barkov, Canadiens

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While the Boston Bruins added a couple of small, but important pieces to their team this offseason in goaltender Jaroslav Halak and defenseman John Moore, their two biggest Atlantic Division rivals seem to be working at a much bigger scale. The Toronto Maple Leafs have already successfully signed superstar center John Tavares to a long-term deal, while the Tampa Bay Lightning are trying hard to acquire superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Those two moves (although nothing is definite about Karlsson going to Tampa) suggest that maybe Boston isn’t doing enough to improve their own team. The team looks like they lost veteran Rick Nash who is still trying to decide if he intends to return to the NHL and hasn’t added much to their forward core this season. No doubt Boston general manager Don Sweeney is trying to work the trade market in hopes of picking up a Jeff Skinner or Artemi Panarin. However, NBC Sports Joe Haggerty writes that there is nothing wrong if the team can acquire such a player, but the team needs to stay the course and not overreact to the whatever the Maple Leafs or Lightning do.

Haggerty writes the team had a plan at the end of the season and they need to stick to it, which means the team must hold onto their talented young players and not consider moving them for big-name players. The team already had a plan in place in hopes to upgrade its team, using prospects and pieces such as Torey Krug and Anders Bjork. However, the team also needs to keep their elite young players like Charlie McAvoy and Jake Debrusk, because they will need them to stay with the organization for the next decade. The team shouldn’t panic and attempt to grab a big-name player if it will cost them their long-term future.

  • The Florida Panthers could be making major shakeups in their lineups next season, according to Matthew DeFranks of the SunSentinel. With the addition of more talent this season, including Mike Hoffman and a host of young talent, coach Bob Boughner has a lot of option for loading up his top line which features star Aleksander Barkov. The talented center has spent much of the last three years playing alongside Jonathan Huberdeau and Evgeni Dadonov, who arrived last season. However, with Hoffman and how well forward Nick Bjugstad played on the top line at times last season, it’s likely Barkov could get all new linemates next season, giving the team more depth on both their second and third lines.
  • Brendan Kelly of the Montreal Gazette writes that the Montreal Canadiens have done nothing to get better this offseason. The scribe writes that when you finished the season as the 28th worst team in the league, you need to make big changes. Instead, the team’s biggest trade of Alex Galchenyuk for Max Domi didn’t make the team better, especially since most experts believe that Arizona won the deal, but at best it’s a wash. Then the team’s biggest free agent signing was bringing back Tomas Plekanec, who isn’t the same player he once was and since he spent the majority of the season with Montreal last season, also can’t be anything more than a wash as well. The scribe also points out that if the team was rebuilding then they wouldn’t have tried so hard to go after Tavares or Paul Stastny this offseason. It just looks like another down year in Montreal.

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