Headlines

Go To MLB Trade Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

Kraken Rumors

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

at CDT | by 1 Comment

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the St. Louis Blues opted to protect expiring assets and role players like Patrik Berglund, Ryan Reaves, and Vladimir Sobotka and as a result lost top-six forward David Perron to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blues watched as Perron enjoyed what was then the best season of his NHL career and led the Knights to the Stanley Cup Final while they missed the playoffs.

Fortunately, the team learned from their mistakes. They re-signed Perron the following season, won the Stanley Cup, and now three years later Perron is coming off the best campaign of his career. This time around he will be safe, as will most of the Blues’ top players. However, a deep, talented roster will not be able to completely avoid another impact loss in expansion.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sam Anas, Ivan Barbashev, Sammy Blais, Kyle Clifford, Jacob de La Rose, Tanner Kaspick, Jordan Kyrou, Mackenzie MacEachern, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Zach Sanford, Brayden Schenn, Nolan Stevens, Oskar Sundqvist, Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas

Defense:
Robert Bortuzzo, Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk, Niko Mikkola, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Steven Santini, Marco Scandella, Jake Walman

Goalies:
Jordan Binnington, Evan Fitzpatrick, Ville Husso

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Tyler Bozak, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Mike Hoffman, F Jaden Schwartz

Notable Exemptions

G Joel Hofer, F Dakota Joshua, F Klim Kostin, F Jake Neighbours, D Scott Perunovich

Key Decisions

In contrast to successful team-building, depth and long-term security are the enemy of the Expansion Draft. The St. Louis Blues have built a strong roster with talent throughout the lineup and most of those players are signed beyond this season. With only eight skaters or seven forwards and three defenseman who can be protected, the Blues will expose a number of valuable assets and there is little they can do about it. But they will try.

The first question for the Blues is really what protection scheme to use, which comes down to x-factor number one: Vince Dunn. Following a resurgent season, Dunn was back in the good graces of St. Louis, at least until the trade talks returned of late. As promising as the 24-year-old defenseman may be, the Blues have refrained from giving him a true top-four role and he has also failed to produce top-four numbers. He was fifth in average time on ice among St. Louis defensemen in 2020-21 and while he was third in defensive scoring, most of his production came on the power play. He was fifth in blocked shots and fifth in hits, noticeably behind Krug in both, a player that specializes in neither. While he skates well, Dunn is susceptible to turnovers and is caught out of position frequently. When determining whether or not to protect Dunn, the upside argument for is strong, but the depth argument against is stronger. Compared to Faulk and Krug, the Blues’ two best all-around defensemen this season who the club has committed extensive money and term to, and Parayko, who has a unique blend of size and skill and has been steady throughout his career, it is hard to claim that Dunn is more worthy of protection in a 7-3 scheme despite his age and potential.

With all that said, there is a way to keep Dunn in addition to the three likely locks for protection on the blue line. The Blues could instead go with the eight-skater protection scheme, in which Dunn faces a much easier battle for a protection slot with the veteran Scandella. Of course, the trade-off for the Blues in protecting Dunn is exposing three extra forwards. Depth comes in to play here as well, as the forward corps is no different than the defense in terms of too many valuable players. With top scorer and 2017 Expansion casualty Perron locked in, as well as captain and elite two-way center O’Reilly, consistent top scorer Schenn, and all-world sniper Tarasenko, Dunn’s competition for protection are other fellow young players. Would the Blues really rather keep him over breakout rookie Kyrou? Or promising 21-year-old Thomas? It seems very unlikely, even as Dunn showed improvement this year. And thus the trade rumors. St. Louis will do its best not to lose Dunn for nothing given the promise he has shown, but if they are unable to make a trade before the Expansion Draft, they will let Seattle have the option of taking him over a future top-six forward.

The scheme resolution and acceptance that Dunn would be an attractive target if left exposed doesn’t make the decisions up front any easier for the Blues though. Even with seven forwards under protection, there will still be talent available to the Kraken. This is where x-factor number two comes in: Jaden Schwartz. Perron, O’Reilly, Schenn, Tarasenko, Kyrou, and Thomas are not going anywhere. Sure, there is some debate over Perron’s age or Tarasenko’s injury concerns, but neither argument is strong enough to leave a player of their caliber exposed. So, the Blues have one spot left at forward. Currently, Schwartz is slated for unrestricted free agency. The long-time St. Louis top-sixer may be too expensive for the team to re-sign, especially as he eyes a weak free agent market, but they will try. If the Blues come to an agreement with Schwartz before the Expansion Draft, they may decide to officially sign him or protect him as a UFA. Once Seattle has a chance to speak with Schwartz, their offer could mark the end of any handshake agreement he had with the Blues, so St. Louis could want the added security.

The other possibility is that the Blues either don’t reach an agreement with Schwartz in time or simply decide that using a protection slot on a UFA is not worth it. This does not rule out a Schwartz return to St. Louis, but it does open up the conversation of who else is deserving of that final spot. Impending free agents Bozak and Hoffman are unlikely to return and will not be protected and checking forwards Clifford and MacEachern, while valued, don’t stand up against the team’s top-nine options. Barbashev, Blais, Sanford, and Sundqvist will all be in consideration and all have a decent case for protection.

Sanford was the leading scorer of the bunch this season, but each of the other three missed time, especially Sundqvist whose season was lost to a torn ACL midway through the year. On a per-game basis, it was actually Blais that led the way. Blais is also the youngest of the group and the most physical, which could give him a leg up. Then again, Blais also had the lowest time on ice per game and contributed the least on special teams. Barbashev was the only positive player of the group and the possession leader. The decision may be one of the tightest for any team at any position, especially with four valid options. As a result, it may not come down to performance at all. Sundqvist, though a great defensive forward, is coming off of a major injury and has two years left on his current contract at $2.75MM. The Kraken would be taking a risk by selecting him, which likely leaves him exposed. Barbashev and Sanford have been in the NHL for a similar amount of time and have similar career offensive numbers. However, the more important thing that they both have in common is that they are both unsigned restricted free agents. If that does not change before the Expansion Draft, it makes both players less likely to be selected – if only slightly – as Seattle must take 20 players with term of their 30 picks, meaning Barbashev or Sanford would have to be deemed worthy of one of a maximum ten slots for RFA’s and UFA’s. It also stands to reason that either one could replace the loss of the other. This leaves Blais as the unique member of the group: healthy, under contract, and not to mention coming off a season in which he showed flashes of top-six potential. He may not be the best player of the four, but he is the safest pick for protection.

Finally, in goal there is no decision at all. Binnington is the unrivaled starter and the clear protection selection. Though he has been slow to develop, Fitzpatrick finally showed this season in the AHL the potential that made him a second-round draft choice, but it isn’t enough to usurp Binnington.

Projected Protection List

F Sammy Blais
F Jordan Kyrou
F Ryan O’Reilly
F David Perron
F Brayden Schenn
F Vladimir Tarasenko
F Robert Thomas

D Justin Faulk
D Torey Krug
D Colton Parayko

G Jordan Binnington

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Kyle Clifford, Mackenzie MacEachern, Oskar Sundqvist

Defensemen (3): Robert Bortuzzo, Niko Mikkola, Marco Scandella

The Blues have the type of roster where they may want to look into a trade with Seattle for the Kraken to select a specific player in exchange for a draft pick or prospect rather than leaving so many valuable players exposed. Even with their seven best forwards, top three defensemen, and starting goalie protected, St. Louis faces the certainty of impact loss. If not traded beforehand, Dunn would be a major loss. If Sundqvist returns to full strength, he too would be a player the Blues would really miss and would be an asset to the Kraken. Either of Sanford or Barbashev could break out in a greater role in Seattle. Even prospect goalie Fitzpatrick or veteran defenseman Scandella would hurt. Would it be worth a mid-round pick just to hand-pick who was leaving ahead of time?

St. Louis has all the incentive to leave their pending UFA’s exposed in hopes that Seattle takes the bait. The team could very well be interested in all three of Schwartz, Hoffman, and Bozak, considering the former two will be top free agent scorers and the latter could help to address a need down the middle that expansion teams tend to have. However, there is such enticing value available to the Kraken elsewhere, that they too have incentive to talk to the Blues’ UFA’s but not select them, opting for a current roster player instead with the opportunity to circle back on any of Schwartz, Hoffman, or Bozak on the open market. Seattle could also take advantage of a vulnerable Blues team to add a valuable draft pick, still select a solid player, and again turn around and sign a free agent. There are many opportunities for the Kraken – far more than St. Louis would like.

Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 11 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison.  The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.  With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott

Defense:
Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev

Goalies:
Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith

Notable Exemptions

G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them.  Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.

Let’s look at their defense first.  Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it.  McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs.  He’s a big part of the puzzle.  However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV.  With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four.  He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote.  He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017.  He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract.  Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well.  Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde.  The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM.  That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected.  His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap.  But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze.  He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark.  At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal.  But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.

Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson.  Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either.  It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides.  He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest.  But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit.  The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.

Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL.  Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year.  Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year.  They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to.  Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.

Projected Protection List

F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)

D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer.  This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected.  Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs

at CDT | by 10 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Maple Leafs didn’t do too badly last expansion draft, losing Brendan Leipsic to the Vegas Golden Knights. This year could be a little more complicated, with the team at risk of losing a more regular contributor on the back end.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Auston Matthews, John Tavares (NMC), Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Alexander Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall, Nic Petan, Joey Anderson, Adam Brooks, Denis Malgin

Defense:

Jake Muzzin, T.J. Brodie, Morgan Rielly, Justin Holl, Travis Dermott

Goalies:

Jack Campbell, Michael Hutchinson

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Riley Nash, Zach Hyman, Wayne Simmonds, Nick Foligno, Alex Galchenyuk, Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza, Zach Bogosian, Ben Hutton, Frederik Andersen, David Rittich

Notable Exemptions

F Ilya Mikheyev, F Nicholas Robertson, D Rasmus Sandin, D Timothy Liljegren

Key Decisions

The Maple Leafs are one of the teams that will have to make a fundamental decision at the beginning of their expansion preparation. Do they protect seven forwards and three defensemen, or just eight skaters?

If they go the more “regular” protection method, protecting seven and three, the team would be at no risk of losing a key piece upfront. Matthews, Tavares, Marner and Nylander are going to be protected no matter what they do, but the other three slots could then be used on Kerfoot, Engvall and one of Brooks or Anderson. Even Hyman, who is an unrestricted free agent, could then be signed before the draft to use that last spot. It would give the Maple Leafs plenty of flexibility at the forward position, allowing them to start conducting business before the draft even happens.

The first problem that would present, however, is it would mean exposing Holl. Rielly, Brodie, and Muzzin are the obvious choices for protection unless the team believes that their more expensive contracts would keep them off the Seattle radar. Holl has turned into a legitimate top-four option (at least when paired with Muzzin, who does have a history of elevating his partner) and costs just $2MM against the cap through the next two seasons. That kind of value is crucial in Toronto as they continue to try and navigate the salary cap with so much money tied up by four forwards. Losing him right now would also open a huge hole on the right side, a position the Maple Leafs have had trouble filling for years.

The second problem that the seven/three structure would create is a lack of options to leave exposed at forward. Only Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Nylander, Kerfoot and Engvall meet the exposure requirements upfront, meaning at this moment, two of them need to be left unprotected. Usually, that problem can be easily fixed by signing a depth player that spent the majority of the season with the NHL club. In Toronto’s case though, most of those spots were held by veterans like Joe Thornton, Jason Spezza and Wayne Simmonds, not players who want to sign a cheap deal just to be exposed to Seattle. In fact, if the Maple Leafs are going to protect seven forwards, it would be difficult for them to meet the expansion requirements without making a trade of some kind.

So it’s more likely that the team goes the eight-skater route, in order to protect an extra defenseman, plus the big four forwards. At that point, the decision comes whether or not Dermott, still just 24, is worth more to the organization than Holl. The restricted free agent has played 208 games for the team over the last four seasons, but seemed to be passed at the very end of the year by top prospect Sandin and has never developed into much more than a third-pairing option. That’s not to say there isn’t more potential left to unlock in Dermott, but at this point, it is hard to see how the Maple Leafs would protect him without making a separate trade.

Of course, making a trade is a very realistic scenario in this situation, given that the eight-skater route will also leave Kerfoot exposed. That helps meet Toronto’s requirements, but also could very well mean the Kraken take the 26-year-old third-line center over Dermott. At $3.5MM Kerfoot isn’t a burden on most team’s salary cap and if given the opportunity, has shown he can be a better offensive producer. Though he was stuck in a more defensive role in Toronto behind Matthews and Tavares, Kerfoot did score at least 42 points in each of his first two NHL seasons, then with the Colorado Avalanche.

Moving Kerfoot before the draft could very well be the best option for the Maple Leafs. It would open up a bit more cap space for them to do their offseason shopping, while also potentially bringing back some of the draft capital they expended at the deadline this year. It would almost certainly mean the Kraken’s focus would shift to Dermott, but as it stands, the team is going to lose one of them either way.

Projected Protection List

F John Tavares (NMC)
F Auston Matthews
F Mitch Marner
F William Nylander

D Jake Muzzin
D Morgan Rielly
D T.J. Brodie
D Justin Holl

G Jack Campbell

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Alexander Kerfoot, Pierre Engvall
Defensemen (0)

The eight-skater protection structure would technically mean the Maple Leafs don’t have a defenseman that meets the requirements either, but re-signing one of Bogosian, Hutton or Dermott would handle that issue. Dermott may not want to given he would know that contract could very well be going to the Kraken, but Hutton especially seems like a perfect candidate to return on a low-cost deal.

Still, it is certainly not an excellent spot for the Maple Leafs to be in, so tight against the exposure requirements. This is one of the downsides of signing so many veterans to one-year contracts but fortunately, they won’t need to go through the expansion process again (at least not for a while).

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: Vancouver Canucks

at CDT | by 3 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

When the Vegas Golden Knights entered the NHL in 2017, it was unclear who might become the expansion team’s biggest rival. Las Vegas was located close to a number of Pacific Division foes, but with deep-seated rivalries already in place in Southern California, it was unclear if there would be room for the Knight. The Seattle Kraken don’t have that problem. The Vancouver Canucks, located on the same body of water less than 150 miles north, will be immediate geographical rivals of the NHL’s newest team. While Seattle may not be as competitive right off the bat as Vegas – opposing teams learned their lesson in the last Expansion Draft – an attainable goal for the club in their inaugural season could be to get the best of the rival Canucks in the season series and the division standings. The rivalry could get off to a hot start if the Kraken can steal a player of value out of Vancouver in next month’s draft.

The problem? Just as they did in the last Expansion Draft, in which they lost stay-at-home defenseman Luca Sbisa, the Canucks have again set themselves up well to protect their key players from exposure. Seattle will have a number of options, but it is hard to picture any of them swaying the tide in the new rivalry.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Jay Beagle, Brock Boeser, Loui Eriksson, Micheal Ferland, Jonah Gadjovich, Jayce Hawryluk, Matthew Highmore, Bo Horvat, Lukas Jasek, Kole Lind, Zack MacEwen, J.T. Miller, Tyler Motte, Petrus Palmu, Tanner Pearson, Elias Pettersson, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen

Defense:
Guillaume Brisebois, Madison Bowey, Olli Juolevi, Tyler Myers, Nate Schmidt

Goalies:
Thatcher Demko, Braden Holtby

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

D Alexander Edler, D Travis Hamonic, F Brandon Sutter

Notable Exemptions

G Michael DiPietro, F Nils Hoglander, D Quinn Hughes, F Marc Michaelis, F Vasily Podkolzin, D Jack Rathbone, D Jett Woo

Key Decisions

The Canucks really only have decisions to make at one position: forward. In goal, last summer’s free agent addition Holby was expected to be a player that Seattle might pursue, but after a poor season the 31-year-old not longer looks like an attractive option. Vancouver will protect the younger and superior Demko and won’t put any effort into a side deal to protect Holtby. No other goalies are eligible for selection. On the blue line, only five non-UFA defenseman are eligible for selection and Bowey was acquired specifically to meet the exposure requirement on defense. Barring a trade addition, the Canucks face the easy choice of protecting top-four defensemen Myers and Schmidt and choosing the younger, more experienced, and more highly-regarded young player in Juolevi over Brisebois. Even if any of their impending UFA defenders were re-signed, including veterans Edler and Hamonic, it is unlikely to change the protection plan on the back end. Signed or not, the Kraken selecting and extending career Canuck Edler would be a fun start to the rivalry albeit an unlikely result.

Up front, things are not so simple. The Canucks have a whopping 18 eligible non-UFA forwards and it is a mix of both NHL contributors and promising prospects. The locks are core forwards Horvat, Boeser, Pettersson, Miller and the recently-extended Pearson, leaving two spots available for the remaining 13 forwards. From there, it may be easier to begin with who won’t be protected. Veterans Ferland (injury), Beagle (injury), and Eriksson (overpaid and ineffective) will be exposed. Roussel is also very likely to fall into that group after consecutive seasons of poor play and injury concern. Prospects playing overseas in Jasek and Palmu also have no chance at protection. MacEwen, if only by process of elimination, is also unlikely to be protected as a one-dimensional checking forward.

What is left is a group of six bubble forwards, all with a case for why he should be protected. Despite a disastrous 2020-21 season, the best NHL resume of the bunch belongs to Virtanen Even with just five points in 38 games this year, the 2014 sixth overall pick has 100 points in 317 games, outpacing his fellow bubble candidates. The Canucks shopped the struggling Virtanen this year, but also refused to give him away for less than what they felt he was worth. If that sentiment remains, the team will not allow Seattle to get him for nothing.

With that said, Virtanen’s $2.55MM cap hit is also the heaviest of the bunch and was a roadblock in trade dealings this year. His ongoing legal troubles are also a serious cause for pause. If Vancouver feels that the Kraken will not select Virtanen based on these issues on top of his poor production this year, they could expose him. That idea becomes more likely when considering that three other, more affordable forwards outscored Virtanen on a per-game basis this year: Motte, Hawryluk, and Highmore. All three have a strong case for protection too. Motte, 26, when healthy last season, saw a major uptick in ice time to near top-six levels. A talented defensive forward involved in the checking game and serving on the top penalty kill unit, Motte has proved himself valuable to the Canucks and his timely offense in last year’s postseason helped to make him a fan favorite. However, with Motte out of the lineup down the stretch, it was Highmore who took on a similar role and thrived following a trade from the Chicago Blackhawks. Recording five points in 18 games and taking on some short-handed responsibility, Highmore, 25, looked at home in a bottom-six role with Vancouver. His ease of transition to a new team could peak the interest of Seattle. Hawryluk, 25, surprisingly has the second-best career offensive profile within the bubble, with 27 points in 98 games despite playing for three different teams over three years. Underutilized by the Canucks this year, Hawryluk showed promising flashes with more opportunity late in the year.

The two names remaining are prospects Gadjovich and Lind. Both 2017 second-round picks, Gadjovich and Lind are each high-scoring junior products who have improved every year in the pros and were point-per-game players in the AHL this year, as well as seeing their first NHL action. Both should see increased roles next year with the Canucks, potentially ahead of any of the aforementioned bubble forwards. The upside is certainly greater for either scoring winger than any of the group outside of possibly a resurgent Virtanen. If Seattle was to select either one, they would not be selecting “prospects”. Both will lose their waiver exemption next season. If the Kraken want to take and keep Gadjovich or Lind, they would need to be prepared to hand them a roster spot, as neither would be likely to clear waivers. This calculus would of course change if the Kraken plant to select then trade one of the promising young players.

One mitigating factor to the selection of Lind, as well as Hawryluk, is that they are unsigned restricted free agents. Seattle must select 20 players under contract in 2021-22. With just ten slots to use on both unrestricted and restricted free agents, the team may not feel that Lind or Hawryluk are worthy of a spot. Vancouver could extend Hawryluk to make him a more attractive selection and possible convince Seattle to take him over another more valuable forward. They will not do the same with the coveted Lind.

Projected Protection List

F Brock Boeser
F Jonah Gadjovich
F Bo Horvat
F J.T. Miller
F Tyler Motte
F Tanner Pearson
F Elias Pettersson

D Olli Juolevi
D Tyler Myers
D Nate Schmidt

G Thatcher Demko

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019-20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Jay Beagle, Loui Eriksson, Matthew Highmore, Zack MacEwen, Antoine Roussel, Jake Virtanen
Defensemen (1): Madison Bowey

With several top young players and near future contributors exempt and all core players protected, the list of options for Seattle is not strong. Vancouver does not appear to be a team that offers any UFA’s worth selecting, so the team will still lose a current roster player. However, they stand almost no chance of losing a player of any great meaning. The greatest impact would perhaps be if the Kraken went with the surprise selection of Holtby, as it would force the Canucks to find a new backup this off-season. However, this season provided little evidence that Holtby would be a worthwhile pick, especially at his current cost. There are no defenseman of value to Vancouver available and it hard to envision Seattle going in that direction anyway.

So again, it all comes back to forward. With Vancouver opting to protect defensive ace Motte and budding power forward Gadjovich with their final two protection slots, the Kraken will be looking at the other four bubble forwards and MacEwen, as barring trade incentive from the Canucks they will not touch any of the overpriced veterans. Virtanen and Lind have the highest upsides, but each come with concerns. Virtanen is expensive, has off-ice baggage, and is coming off a poor season. If selected, he likely has no trade value as the Canucks were unable to deal him themselves this year. Lind would have to be selected with the intention of being a key, everyday starter. He would not clear waivers and would require a roster spot and would take up a valuable unsigned draft slot if selected. Lind is still a very viable option in this scenario, especially if the Kraken are high on him, as his junior and minor league production shows NHL potential and he would have trade value to other teams if he cannot crack the Seattle roster. If either of these two are selected and blossom with the Canucks new rivals, it will sting.

If the issues surrounding potential top-nine forwards Virtanen and Lind are too much for the Kraken, they will likely look for a dependable fourth-liner in Highmore or MacEwen rather than a depth option in Hawryluk, who is also unsigned. In fact, Highmore’s recent success jumping from Chicago to Vancouver and thriving in a bottom-six role could inspire the Kraken. If they don’t love Lind and don’t want to risk Virtanen, then Highmore is the likely choice.

Penguins Notes: Goaltending, Jarry, DeSmith, Malkin

at CDT | by 13 Comments

The Penguins’ new brain trust threw their support behind goaltender Tristan Jarry after his struggles led to another early exit for the team this postseason. At least publicly, the team claimed that they still believed in the 25-year-old as their starter. In fact, they went so far as to say that adding size and physicality was their only objective this off-season. Behind closed doors, the conversation seems to have gone differently. Dan Kingerski of Pittsburgh Hockey Now reports that multiple sources close to the team confirm that the Penguins aim to add a veteran goaltender on the trade or free agent market this summer. While Kingerski calls the focus an “experienced backup”, in all likelihood that means they are looking for someone with starting experience to play 1B to Jarry’s 1A and take over if he again has issues. Frederik Andersen is a name that has already been linked to the Penguins, while other UFA options include Jonathan Bernier, James Reimer, Antti Raanta, Jaroslav Halak or Devan Dubnyk. Younger names like Linus Ullmark or Chris Driedger could really push Jarry if brought in. Trade options are numerous and the Expansion Draft will likely shake up the market, but Anton Khudobin stands out as an ideal fit for what the Penguins are looking for.

  • Again, this means that Casey DeSmith is the odd man out – and not just on the depth chart. Kingerski put to rest any speculation to the contrary by stating definitively that Jarry will be protected by the Penguins in the impending Expansion Draft. That will leave DeSmith, 29, up for grabs for the Seattle Kraken, though the team will likely have better options elsewhere on the Pittsburgh roster. Nevertheless, DeSmith’s time with the Penguins could be running out. After outplaying Jarry in everything but games played this season, DeSmith has proven himself to be a solid backup in his own right. Injury prone and unaccustomed to a starter’s workload at the NHL level, teams may not be clamoring to acquire DeSmith, but he also is unlikely to clear waivers if the Penguins add another goalie.
  • Another player that Kingerski confirms for the Penguins’ protection list in next month’s Expansion Draft: Evgeni Malkin. No, its not exactly a revelation. Not only is Malkin one of the faces of the franchise, but his contract also carries a No-Movement Clause, requiring him to be protected. Malkin could waive his NMC, but the team will not ask him to do that. That may seem like common sense, but after a down year by his standards, advancing age, an expensive contract, a serious injury that could carry over into the season, and very poor Expansion Draft outlook for their deep roster, the Penguins have plenty of reason to at least consider exposing Malkin. However, Kingerski adds that it probably would be a useless request anyway. As as has been the book on Malkin throughout his whole career, he would only leave Pittsburgh if he was traded to a Florida team, where he makes his home in the off-season. Seattle is on the other side of the continent.

Poll: How Should The Seattle Kraken Approach The No. 2 Overall Pick?

at CDT | by 21 Comments

The Seattle Kraken will be much more than just an idea with one undrafted junior player on their roster by the time the 2021 NHL Entry Draft rolls around. The club will have added at least 30 players to their arsenal by way of the Expansion Draft several days earlier. Seattle is not expected to have the same advantage in making side deals like the Vegas Golden Knights did in 2017, as the other 30 teams have learned their lesson. However, one major advantage they will have compared to Vegas is in the Entry Draft. Picking No. 2 overall after moving up in the draft lottery, the Kraken will pick four spots higher than the Knights, who slid to No. 6 overall in their lottery. While Vegas’ first ever draft pick, Cody Glass, is still fighting for regular play time on the NHL roster four years later, Seattle has a chance to add a player who can contribute right away in their inaugural season – one way or another.

The results of the Expansion Draft are unlikely to change the Kraken’s draft plans. They will have several days between the submission of Expansion Draft protection lists and the draft itself and to map out their plan of attack and to talk trade with the rest of the league. Sure, they could find that there are some unexpected trade options that could allow them to add other picks and prospects ahead of the draft, but unlikely anything that will change their opinion on how best to use the No. 2 pick. Only the Buffalo Sabres at first overall could potentially throw Seattle a curveball. Otherwise, their plan should be set well ahead of July 23.

So what should Seattle do with the second overall pick? It is a critical pick that will undoubtedly impact the new franchise for years to come. What is the best approach?

Take The Best Available Player – Pretty straightforward, right? The Kraken should take the best player remaining on their board after Buffalo makes their selection. Regardless of the positional value or any perceived positional needs following the Expansion Draft, Seattle should simply take the prospect that they feel has the highest ceiling and most realistic pro ambitions. While there is no consensus top prospect in this draft, many feel that University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power is that top prospect. If the Kraken agree and Buffalo goes elsewhere at No. 1, they pull the trigger.

Take The Best Available Center – Center is the position that many point to as the most important in the NHL and feel that a true No. 1 center is the hardest player to find. At No. 2 overall and Power potentially going first to Buffalo, Seattle could conceivably have their pick of every forward in the draft class to find that future top center. That could very well be Power’s Wolverines teammate Matthew Beniers. Even if Beniers or another center isn’t the best player on their board, Seattle shouldn’t pass up on the opportunity to add an elite prospect down the middle.

Take The Best Available Defenseman – Some live by the team-building mantra of building from the net out. While goalie Jesper Wallstedt is an elite prospect, he isn’t going No. 2 overall. However, the Kraken could instead choose to bolster their blue line with an elite prospect. Even if Power is off the board and there are forwards ranked higher on their draft board, Seattle needs to target one of the small group of blue chip defenders in the draft class, such as Brandt Clarke or Luke Hughes.

Trade Back And Add Picks – Starting a pipeline from scratch is about quantity over quality, right? The No. 2 overall pick is nice, but if Seattle isn’t able to acquire any other top picks in Expansion Draft deals, they would be better off trading back and adding picks. The New Jersey Devils at No. 4 and Columbus Blue Jackets at No. 5, both with extra first-rounders, seem like enticing trade partners. All three of Clarke, Hughes, or Wallstedt could still be available at either of those picks.

Trade For Established Star – Seattle doesn’t want a slow build-up. They want to compete right away like Vegas, but they won’t be able to so easily dupe the rest of the league in the Expansion Draft. Perhaps they should use the No. 2 overall pick as part of a deal to pry a star from a rebuilding team. Jack Eichel? Dylan Larkin? Logan Couture? Patrik Laine or Seth Jones?

What do you think? Which direction should GM Ron Francis and company go with the franchise’s first pick and the second pick of the 2021 NHL Draft?

Wild Notes: Dumba, Parise, First Round Picks

at CDT | by 4 Comments

Although the Minnesota Wild played well in their seven-game first round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, losing with dignity to one of the best teams in the NHL this season, their loss has already fired the rumor mill back up, reports Sarah MacLellan of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. At the center of the speculation yet again is defenseman Matt Dumba. Despite another strong season for the 26-year-old blue liner, capped off by a postseason in which he tied for the team lead in points, there is still speculation over Dumba’s future in Minnesota stemming from the impending NHL Expansion Draft. The Wild can only protect three defensemen and seven forwards or instead eight skaters total from selection by the Seattle Kraken. With Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin all carrying No-Movement Clauses, the trio all must be protected. The only way that the team can use the 7-3 format and also protect Dumba would be fore one those three to waive their NMC and allow themselves to be exposed. Otherwise, the Wild will have to protect eight skaters, but with Zach Parise and Mats Zuccarello also with No-Movement Clauses, this would mean Minnesota would have to leave multiple promising young forwards exposed in order to make room for Dumba, including at least one of Joel Eriksson Ek or Jordan Greenway. One thing that is certain is that Minnesota will not let Dumba be taken for free by future Western Conference rival Seattle. If the team cannot convince a veteran to waive their NMC and decide the 7-3 protection scheme is their best choice, Dumba will be traded before the Expansion Draft – hence the abundant speculation. Dumba has stated many times that he would like to remain with the Wild, so the organization is obviously doing all they can to make it work.

  • Another player who would like to stay in Minnesota is Parise. The 36-year-old is coming off of a down year and was even benched for the first three games of the Wild’s first round series. However, he impressed in the remainder of the series once activated. Parise can still play at a high level, but not commensurate to his $7.5MM+ cap hit over four more years. The Wild have tried to move the contract in the past and may do so again this summer, but Parise hopes they don’t. He told Dane Mizutani of TwinCities.com that he “[doesn’t] want to play anywhere else” but for his hometown team. As Mizutani points out, he shouldn’t be too worried given his albatross of a contract. Ironically though, one way that Parise could prove his loyalty to the club would be to waive his NMC for the Expansion Draft, allowing Minnesota to protect all of Dumba, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway in an 8-skater format. There is no way that Seattle would touch Parise’s contract, so it could be a win-win for both sides.
  • While the Wild are certainly not looking forward to the Expansion Draft – even if Dumba, Eriksson Ek, and Greenway are safe, the team will still lose a good player like Carson Soucy or Marcus Foligno – they are definitely excited for the NHL Entry Draft. With the Pittsburgh Penguins opting to send their 2021 first-round pick rather than their 2020 for last year’s Jason Zucker trade, the Wild will now have two picks in the top 32 this year. Not only that, but they will have two picks very close together as well. Minnesota’s own pick is locked in at No. 22 overall, but if the Tampa Bay Lightning advance to the next round, Pittsburgh’s pick will be No. 25, allowing the Wild to control the board with two picks out of four selections. They could also look to package the two picks to potentially move up into the top half of the first round. With a pipeline that is already well-stocked, Minnesota has put themselves in position to stay competitive for a long time with a strong roster and deep system after adding two first-rounders this year, as well as all of their own picks and another Pittsburgh pick in the third round.

Off-Season Notes: Penguins, Oshie, Rinne

at CDT | by 11 Comments

It was another disappointing early playoff exit for the Pittsburgh Penguins but their new front office group, just installed earlier this season, is not looking to blow up the roster. NHL.com’s Wes Crosby writes that Penguins GM Ron Hextall intends to keep his aging core together and to remain in “win-now mode”. That means that contract negotiation talks are underway with center Evgeni Malkin and defenseman Kris Letang. The current deals for the 34-year-old duo expire at the end of next season, but Hextall would like to keep them around and is not currently considering trading either one. “We see a future with this core,” Hextall said. “We’ve got some pretty special players that, they’re obviously not in their 20s anymore, but they’re still playing at a high level.” The GM also expressed his confidence in young goaltender Tristan Jarry and did not label goaltending as an area of concern this off-season. Hextall instead stated that adding size and toughness is his priority this summer.

  • There has been considerable speculation that Washington Capitals forward and Washington (state, that is) native T.J. Oshie could be available to the Seattle Kraken in the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Oshie, 34 and signed for four more years, has been stellar for the Capitals, but has still been considered expendable due to his age and contract. Additionally, the idea that the Kraken would leap at the local product as a veteran leader for their new team would mean that Washington does not need to worry about other valuable expected exposures, like young goaltender Vitek Vanecek or defenseman Brenden Dillon. However, in an interview on 106.7 The Fan in D.C., GM Brian MacLellan called it “unlikely” that Oshie will be exposed. MacLellan called Oshie a “big part” of their team, which is not an understatement after this season. In 2020-21, Oshie showed no signs of age catching up to him, scoring goals and recording points at a career pace. Oshie’s 22 goals and 43 points were both top-three marks for the Capitals and had him on a full-season trajectory of 34 goals and 67 points. Oshie also tied for second in the entire league with 13 power play goals. If he can continue to score at this rate, perhaps his lengthy, expensive contract will continue to be worth it through 2024-25, justifying the decision not to make him available in expansion.
  • Although the final days of the Nashville Predators’ regular season certainly implied that we were seeing the end of career Predator and franchise icon Pekka Rinne, the veteran goaltender is not hanging his skate up just yet. In an exit interview with the Nashville communications staff, Rinne states that he has still not made a decision if he will retire or not. Notably, albeit unsurprisingly, is that the only alternative he provides to retirement is re-signing with Nashville. With young Juuse Saros established as the Predators’ current starter and elite prospect Yaroslav Askarov waiting in the wings, there isn’t a long-term need in net for the Predators. However, one more year with Rinne is certainly not a bad option.

Buffalo Sabres Win 2021 NHL Draft Lottery

at CDT | by 31 Comments

For the final time for the foreseeable future, all non-playoff teams were eligible to win the first overall pick in the NHL Draft Lottery. Beginning in 2022, a team can only move up a maximum of ten spots, meaning the teams who finish No. 12 through No. 16 in the final league standings cannot move high enough to take over the top pick. The stage was set for a climactic send-off for the old format.

Well, the lottery balls decided not to take a crazy bounce in their last opportunity to move a team from the middle of the first round all the way to the top. Instead, the draft order stayed virtually the same. The Buffalo Sabres, who held the worst record in the NHL this season and thus the top odds in the lottery, retained the No. 1 pick. The expansion Seattle Kraken, awarded the same odds as the third-worst record in the league, moved up one spot, switching places with the Anaheim Ducks. New this year, there were only two lottery draws as opposed to the former three. Here is the official first-round draft order for the top 15 picks:

  1. Buffalo Sabres
  2. Seattle Kraken
  3. Anaheim Ducks
  4. New Jersey Devils
  5. Columbus Blue Jackets
  6. Detroit Red Wings
  7. San Jose Sharks
  8. Los Angeles Kings
  9. Vancouver Canucks
  10. Ottawa Senators
  11. Chicago Blackhawks
  12. Calgary Flames
  13. Philadelphia Flyers
  14. Dallas Stars
  15. New York Rangers

(As a reminder, the Arizona Coyotes forfeited their first-round pick this years as discipline for scouting violations)

This will be the second time in four years that the Buffalo Sabres will pick first overall after selecting Rasmus Dahlin at the top spot in 2018. It also means that two teams, the Sabres and New Jersey Devils, will have owned the first pick in four of the past five drafts. The two clubs are happy that the NHL’s new rule limiting teams to two lottery wins in a five-year span kicks in next year with a clean slate. Incredibly, the Sabres lottery win also further advances the mythology of Taylor Hall. Although Hall is now with the Boston Bruins, this is the fifth time in Hall’s career that his most recent team eligible for the draft lottery has won. A No. 1 overall pick himself, Hall has brought luck to the Edmonton Oilers, Devils, and now Sabres.

Perhaps bigger news than Buffalo at No. 1 is Seattle at No. 2, a major opportunity for the Kraken to draft a player who is ready to join the team in their inaugural season. The Vegas Golden Knights, with the same odds in the 2017 NHL Draft Lottery, fell to No. 6 overall and drafted Cody Glass, who has still yet to establish himself as a regular in the Vegas lineup. With the second pick, Seattle will have better odds of adding an instant difference-maker.

The 2021 NHL Draft is unique compared to recent years in that there is no consensus top prospect. In fact, it is difficult to remember a draft class in recent memory that is so undecided at the top. One major factor has been the lack of complete scouting due to canceled and shortened seasons and limited live viewings. However, even with complete information, there is still seemingly no prospect that stands heads above the rest. University of Michigan defenseman Owen Power and forward Matthew Beniers are largely considered the top players at each position and the two most likely candidates for the top pick, with Power having a slight lead according to draft pundits. However, current teammate Kent Johnson and Wolverines commit Luke Hughes, a forward and defenseman respectively, are also in the mix. Canadian junior standouts Mason McTavish, Dylan Guenther, and Brandt Clarke and European pros William Eklund and Simon Edvinsson may also be in play.

Central Notes: Chicago Goalies, Quenneville, Detroit Prospects

at CDT | by 5 Comments

The Blackhawks went into this season with plenty of uncertainty between the pipes with Malcolm Subban and Collin Delia battling for the number one role with Kevin Lankinen serving as a third option.  Of course, by the end, Lankinen had established himself as the starter but there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the viability of this trio.  Despite that, Phil Thompson and Chris Sosa of the Chicago Tribune feel that the team would be justified sticking with that same goalie group for next season which would allow them to evaluate Lankinen’s potential viability as a long-term starter while determining if one of Subban or Delia is worthy of a full-time backup spot.  All three netminders are slated to become unrestricted free agents in the 2022 offseason.

More from the Central:

  • Still regarding a Chicago goaltender, USA Hockey announced that prospect Drew Commesso has been added to their roster for the World Championships, replacing Anthony Stolarz who was injured in Sunday’s victory over Canada. The 18-year-old was a second-round pick of the Blackhawks (46th overall) back in 2020 and had a .915 SV% in 11 appearances in his freshman year at Boston University.
  • The fact that Seattle has yet to name their inaugural head coach is somewhat of a surprise given the veterans that have been available and the fact that GM Ron Francis wants an experienced voice behind the bench. However, Larry Brooks of the New York Post suggests the reason for that could be that the Kraken are interested in Panthers bench boss Joel Quenneville, positing that Florida might be willing to let him go for financial reasons.  Considering the season that they’ve had, it’d be tough to imagine that they’d simply let him go to save some money but if there is even a remote possibility of it happening, Francis’ patience in naming a coach would be justified.
  • While many expect Red Wings top prospects Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond to make the jump to the NHL next season, Detroit GM Steve Yzerman told MLive’s Ansar Khan that the youngsters aren’t pencilled into a spot on the roster. While he acknowledged that Seider – recently named the SHL’s defenseman of the year – should be ready to jump into the NHL lineup, Detroit has preferred a slower development approach in recent years which could result in the youngsters getting some AHL time first.

Pro Hockey Rumors is not affiliated with National Hockey League, NHL or NHL.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

scroll to top