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Expansion Primer: New York Rangers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

If you picked a team that had the least painful expansion process the last time around, the New York Rangers may be near the top. They didn’t have to make a side deal with the Vegas Golden Knights and ended up losing Oscar Lindberg, a depth player who had averaged fewer than 11 minutes a night in 2016-17. Sure, he seemed like a useful piece, but he played just two more seasons in the NHL before heading back overseas. He’s now in the KHL, a long way removed from the Rangers roster. This time around, New York is still in a pretty strong position heading into the draft and likely will avoid losing a key player once again.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Artemi Panarin (NMC), Chris Kreider (NMC), Mika Zibanejad (NMC), Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney, Jonny Brodzinski, Anthony Greco, Colin Blackwell, Julien Gauthier, Timothy Gettinger, Gabriel Fontaine, Ty Ronning, Filip Chytil, Pavel Buchnevich, Brett Howden

Defense:

Jacob Trouba (NMC), Anthony DeAngelo, Ryan Lindgren, Anthony Bitetto, Mason Geertsen, Brandon Crawley, Libor Hajek

Goalies:

Alexandar Georgiev, Keith Kinkaid

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Phillip Di Giuseppe, Brendan Smith, Jack Johnson

Notable Exemptions

Alexis Lafreniere, Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov, Morgan Barron, Adam Fox, K’Andre Miller, Zachary Jones, Tarmo Reunanen, Nils Lundkvist, Igor Shesterkin

Key Decisions

For the Rangers, who have started a rebuild since the last draft, the key is in their exemptions. The real core of the future in New York isn’t even eligible to be picked, meaning no matter who they choose to protect, the group will still have tons of talent coming back next season. That leaves really only fringe choices, just like when they decided to leave Lindberg–who was a regular in the lineup–exposed to the Golden Knights.

At forward, there are three players who have no-move clauses, but all of them would deserve protection anyway. Panarin, Kreider, and Zibanejad make the veteran part of the group upfront and are key pieces if the Rangers expect to compete for the playoffs next season. Chytil, who took a strong step forward this season, is a no-doubt choice for protection to make it four. There is perhaps an argument to be made for leaving Strome or Buchnevich available, given they each are scheduled for unrestricted free agency after the 2021-22 season (Buchnevich is an RFA this summer, but a one-year arbitration award would take him to the open market), but it seems much more likely that they both will be protected as valuable assets.

That leaves one spot for several names, with a case to be made for any of Rooney, Blackwell, Gauthier, or Howden. Many would lean toward the latter two because of their youth, but that doesn’t necessarily matter when a team is trying to make the playoffs in 2021-22. Rooney and Blackwell are both better NHL players right now than the two youngsters, meaning they could end up protected ahead of them. Blackwell especially showed he could be a legitimate depth scoring option for the Rangers this season, registering 12 goals and 22 points in 47 games. The fact that he is signed for next season at a cap hit less than the league minimum makes him a valuable piece.

On defense, things would have been much more interesting if DeAngelo hadn’t worn out his welcome so thoroughly. The 25-year-old defenseman was banished from the team earlier this season and is almost certainly going to be left unprotected in the expansion draft (if he’s still a Ranger by then). Trouba’s no-movement clause stifles any debate over his place on the list and Lindgren is an obvious choice after inking his new deal. Once again, that leaves just a single spot for GM Chris Drury to play with, and again it comes down to a decision between youth and experience. Hajek played in 44 games for the Rangers this season but wasn’t very effective, while Bitetto has at least shown he can handle a bottom-pairing role in the NHL.

Of course, these decisions are all subject to change dramatically should Drury decide to pull the trigger on a trade over the next few weeks. That defensive protection slot especially could be weaponized, if he decides that Hajek is worth risking to the Kraken. The Rangers could acquire another player that is at risk elsewhere, adding him to what is looking like quite the formidable defense group for 2021-22.

In net, there isn’t really a decision to be made. The team signed Kinkaid to fill the exposure requirements so that they could protect Georgiev. The fact that Shesterkin is still ineligible despite having already turned 25 saves them from a tough call.

Projected Protection List

F Artemi Panarin
F Chris Kreider
F Mika Zibanejad
F Ryan Strome
F Filip Chytil
F Pavel Buchnevich
F Colin Blackwell

D Jacob Trouba
D Ryan Lindgren
D Libor Hajek

G Alexandar Georgiev

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (1): Kevin Rooney
Defensemen (2): Anthony DeAngelo, Anthony Bitetto

By protecting Blackwell, it does create a bit of an issue for Drury to fix. The team would then only have one forward left exposed who have both completed the requisite games played and is signed for next season. A quick contract for any of Di Giuseppe, Gauthier, or Howden would fix that problem though, something that shouldn’t be too much trouble. For defense, DeAngelo can serve as that exposure requirement if he’s still around, or Bitetto can take his place if the team makes a move in the coming weeks.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

JT Brown Retires, Joins Seattle Kraken Broadcast Team

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The Seattle Kraken are going with a rookie as the broadcast partner for John Forslund, hiring JT Brown as a television analyst for 2021-22. The announcement comes alongside the official retirement for Brown, who spent the 2020-21 season in Sweden playing for IF Bjorkloven.

Brown, 30, suited up more than 400 times in the NHL, scoring 72 points in 365 career regular season games. Before that, he won the NCAA Championship as a member of the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs and once represented the U.S. at the World Championship. Undrafted, he turned heads in the USHL and college ranks, before quickly stepping into the NHL with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He registered a career-high of 22 points in 2015-16.

Speaking to Forslund, Brown explained why he chose now to take the next step in his hockey career:

It’s definitely different and an exciting new chapter. Moving on from playing is a little bit of everything [in terms of emotion]. You think you will play until your legs fall off. But I had started thinking long-term-what was my next play?

Meeting the people with the team, seeing the city itself, it felt like a place we could call home. That solidified it for us. Seattle is amazing.

During the 2019-20 season, his last in North America, Brown scored nine goals and 22 points for the Iowa Wild of the AHL. A career defined by hard work and determination will now take him into the booth, where he’ll have to start all over again.

Expansion Primer: Ottawa Senators

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The 2017 NHL Expansion Draft seemed like it was going to be a difficult blow to the Ottawa Senators. Coming off of a strong season and deep playoff run, a then-talented Senators lineup left several notable players exposed. The Vegas Golden Knights selected Marc Methot, a top-four defenseman who had provided an invaluable defensive and physical presence to the team. Yet, Methot – who was flipped by Vegas to the Dallas Stars – played just two more injury-riddled seasons before retiring. While the Senators’ downfall did begin in the 2017-18 season, it had nothing to do with the expansion loss of Methot.

This time around, the situation is almost exactly reversed. The Senators are coming off another poor season, but do seem to finally be back on the rise. Their rebuilding roster is full of exempt talent and those top performers who are eligible can largely all be protected. One way or another, Ottawa will likely lose a young player, but they have youth to spare and will be giving up potential rather than concrete value.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Vitaly Abramov, Michael Amadio, Drake Batherson, J.C. Beaudin, Clark Bishop, Connor Brown, Logan Brown, Evgenii Dadonov, Jonathan Davidsson, Jack Kopacka, Zach Magwood, Nick Paul, Logan Shaw, Chris Tierney, Brady Tkachuk, Austin Watson, Colin White

Defense:
Thomas Chabot, Josh Brown, Victor Mete, Nikita Zaitsev

Goalies:
Joey Daccord, Anton Forsberg, Filip Gustavsson, Marcus Hogberg, Matt Murray

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Artem Anisimov, F Ryan Dzingel, F Derek Stepan, 

Notable Exemptions

D Jacob Bernard-Docker, D Erik Brannstrom, F Alex Formenton, F Joshua Norris, F Shane Pinto, F Egor Sokolov, F Tim Stutzle, D Lassi Thomson, D Artem Zub

Key Decisions

The first decision that the Senators need to make is whether or not this roster, as currently constituted, is worth using all of their protection slots on. Ottawa arguably has multiple protection slots at both forward and defense that could go to superior players, if only the team went out and acquired them. While most clubs across the NHL are struggling to protect all of their valuable assets, the Senators have room to spare with so much of their young roster exempt from protection. Ottawa has the opportunity to acquire players who would be exposed on other teams at discount prices ahead of the Expansion Draft, as they are one of the few teams with both the ability to protect them and the picks and prospects to acquire them. If they choose, the Senators could use the impending threat of expansion to step out of their rebuild and back into competitive status by adding veterans from a desperate market.

For this exercise, assume they don’t add anyone else; those questions still exist internally. Ottawa went out and re-acquired Dzingel even though he was on an expiring contract and the Senators were not in playoff contention this year. To this point, the two sides have not agreed on an extension and there has been no word of one either. However, it is to the team’s benefit to have some veterans in the locker room and Dzingel’s best seasons were earlier in his career in Ottawa. Rather than let the Kraken negotiate with him prior to the Expansion Draft, the team needs to decide if they want to re-sign him and if so should do so before another team can enter the fray. If Stepan is willing to stay in Ottawa, contrary to popular belief, the same scenario would apply to him.

Again, assuming Dzingel and Stepan remain UFA’s they are unlikely to be protected, especially if talks on a new contract have not gone far. Forward still remains the major area of decision-making for the Senators, as there are many eligible names and plenty of untapped potential. The likely locks include top young scorers Tkachuk and Batherson and veteran Connor Brown. Hard-working fan favorite Paul is also very likely to be protected.

Beyond that, Ottawa could go in a number of directions. They are however restricted by the exposure quota. Protecting the aforementioned four players leaves three spots available, but also just four forwards who meet the exposure requirements, meaning all three cannot be used on veteran lineup regulars. The leading candidates of those four to be protected are likely White and Dadonov. White has had an up-and-down couple of years, but the Senators believed in him enough to sign him to his current long-term contract. The same logic applies to the veteran Dadonov, who Ottawa chased as a free agent last off-season and signed to a substantial deal. He failed to impress overall in his first season with the club, but displayed his elite ability in spurts. It seems unlikely that they would part with either one already if they can help it. This would leave third line center Tierney and bottom-six winger Watson to meet the quota. Neither would be a major loss for Ottawa, but either one could argue for their protection over White or Dadonov based on consistency and two-way contribution.

The final forward spot will have to go to one of the Senators’ younger, less proven forwards. Top candidates include 2020-21 acquisitions Bishop and Amadio or prospects Abramov, Davidsson, or Logan Brown. Seeing as Bishop and Amadio both did little with their Ottawa experience this season and previously struggled with other teams, they are unlikely to be protected or selected by Seattle. Davidsson, who has produced in Sweden but failed to do so in North America, is probably not worth the investment. That leaves Abramov and Brown as the two most likely choices. Until recently, Abramov seemed like a safe bet given his strong AHL production, but after signing in the KHL for next season, his future contributions in Ottawa are now in question. Brown is a 2016 first-round pick with great size and presence at the center position who has shown flashes of promise in the AHL, but has yet to make an impact at the top level. Loaded with potential as both a physical force and skilled contributor, it would be hard to watch Brown leave and succeed elsewhere, but he has been given numerous chances to do so already in Ottawa.

In goal, there are plenty of options for the Senators, but who to protect should actually be a relatively easy decision for the club. Gustavsson, still just 23, looked excellent in his first NHL action this season, is a highly-touted prospect, and most importantly is waiver-exempt next season. If exposed, he is an ideal option to serve as Seattle’s No. 3 goalie next season and could blossom into an NHL starter. Unless the Senators want to use him as bait to draw the Kraken away from other exposed players, they need to protect Gustavsson or he will be taken. Daccord is not all that different from Gustavsson – a young, well-regarded, waivers-exempt goaltender. However, Daccord is two years older, has performed poorly in his brief NHL history, and is coming off of a season-ending surgery. Add in that he is signed long-term to a contract that becomes one-way, despite having shown that he can be a stable NHL presence yet, and Daccord is not as valuable as Gustavsson.

Funny enough, starter Murray is likely not in contention for protection at all. After a dismal start to his Senators career this season, Seattle is not touching his contract with three years remaining at a $6.25MM AAV. If they do, Ottawa will rejoice. As for 2020-21 primary backup Hogberg, he has signed overseas and the Senators have already revealed that he will not be qualified. The Kraken will not be interested in a 26-year-old UFA signed elsewhere. The final option in net, veteran Forsberg, is a career No. 3 who is also not a risk to be selected.

On defense, the decision is too easy, thus the question of whether Ottawa should add veterans to their roster before the Expansion Draft. Chabot is the lone lock and also the only player worth protecting on most NHL rosters. Waiver claim Mete looked good upon his arrival to Ottawa and is likely to be protected. The decision thus comes down to Zaitsev versus Brown: one is protected and the other fills the exposure requirement. Zaitsev was an everyday starter for Ottawa this season, but a poor one and signed to a bad, multi-year contract. Brown was a part-time player this year and showed little upside. Neither player should be protected, but the Senators will probably protect Brown as Zaitsev’s contract makes him the less likely of the two to be surprisingly selected by Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Drake Batherson
F Connor Brown
F Logan Brown
F Evgenii Dadonov
F Nick Paul
F Brady Tkachuk
F Colin White

D Josh Brown
D Thomas Chabot
D Victor Mete

G Filip Gustavsson

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (2): Chris Tierney, Austin Watson

Defensemen (1): Nikita Zaitsev

With capable veterans in Tierney and Watson (or Murray and Zaitsev if Seattle is struggling to hit the cap floor), the Senators could provide an NHL veteran to the Seattle roster. The odds-on favorite in that scenario is Tierney, as the Kraken will not have many skilled centers to choose from in the draft. More likely though, it will be one of Ottawa’s young prospect forwards who is selected. Of the group, Abramov may still be the most attractive and his KHL commitment for next season could actually be seen as a benefit. The Kraken must select 30 players, most of whom are not waiver-exempt, but can only have 23 players on the roster. A talented scoring forward playing overseas next season is a safe way to add future potential that also doesn’t need a roster spot and can’t be stolen on waivers. Abramov could return in a year or two and step right into a starting role.

As noted, Daccord could also be attractive as a minor league goaltending option for the Kraken, who will have few players that can safely clear waivers and could value that depth in net with Daccord, who brings experience and a track record of success in the NCAA and AHL. His NHL numbers are a concern, but he would have another year to develop in the minors before Seattle had to decide on giving him a roster spot or risking him on waivers.

The other option for Seattle would be to negotiate with one of Ottawa’s impending free agent forwards. Without a ton of options to select from the active roster, instead agreeing to terms with a Dzingel or Stepan could be the way to go for the Kraken. Either one could be a superior forward to Tierney or Watson in the right system.

Coaching Notes: Ducharme, Tocchet, Seattle, Toronto

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Following up on the positive COVID-19 test of Montreal Canadiens interim head coach Dominique Ducharme, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston was the first to report that Ducharme will indeed miss the next two weeks as a result. Although the NHL has relaxed many rules pertaining to its COVID Protocol, a positive test still warrants a 14-day isolation period. Especially when the Canadiens were fortunate enough to not have any other positive tests among its players and staff, the league wants to maintain the health and safety of the team as well as the integrity of its semifinals. With that said, losing Ducharme is a blow for Montreal. The interim coach has led the team on an unexpectedly triumphant playoff run as the mid-season interim replacement for Claude Julien. The Habs will now lean on an interim interim head coach in assistant Luke Richardson, who coached the team to a Game Three win. Assuming Ducharme’s 14-day isolation began on Friday when the positive test was discovered, the earliest he can return to the bench would be Friday, July 2nd. Montreal’s semifinal series with the Vegas Golden Knights, if it even goes seven games, will end on Saturday, June 26th, nearly a week before Ducharme ends his isolation. Richardson and the Canadiens will need to string together a couple more semifinal wins and potentially even a Stanley Cup Final win or two if Ducharme is to coach again this season. It’s terrible luck for Ducharme, who had received both doses of his vaccination and told the media this morning that contact tracing has been unable to determine how he might have contracted the virus as he did not break any protocol.

  • Seattle Kraken GM Ron Francis keeps things notoriously close to the vest and his ongoing coaching search is no different. Other than Rick Tocchet, who has interviewed for a number of vacancies so far making his bid for Seattle’s inaugural head coach role more public, there is not much known about who else may be a finalist for the job. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Francis brought a few candidates to Seattle this week for in-person interviews, but could only confirm Tocchet as one – his third interview for the position. Friedman speculates that recently fired New York Rangers head coach David Quinn, Boston Bruins assistant Joe Sacco, and University of Wisconsin Tony Granato could be the other names in the mix. Tocchet certainly seems like the favorite at this point, but don’t be shocked if Francis ends up making a surprise hire.
  • Friedman also notes that other NHL teams are interested in Toronto Maple Leafs assistant coaches and have requested permission to speak with them. Friedman does not name any coaches in particular, but of their group of assistants former head coaches Dave Hakstol and Paul MacLean could certainly be drawing interest, as could up-and-comer Manny Malhotra. At this time, the Maple Leafs have not made any decisions on if they will allow their assistants to explore these opportunities, especially since they are likely to be lateral moves.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Philadelphia was able to get through Vegas’ expansion fairly lightly with the Golden Knights selecting Pierre-Edouard Bellemare from them back in 2017.  But between their current roster composition and salary cap situation, there’s a chance a more notable player heads to Seattle next month.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Connor Bunnaman, Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux (NMC), Kevin Hayes (NMC), David Kase, Travis Konecny, Pascal Laberge, Scott Laughton, Oskar Lindblom, Nolan Patrick, German Rubtsov, Carsen Twarynski, James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek, Mikhail Vorobyev

Defense:
Justin Braun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Robert Hagg, Philippe Myers, Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim

Goalies:
Carter Hart, Felix Sandstrom

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andy Andreoff, Brian Elliott, Samuel Morin

Notable Exemptions

F Wade Allison, F Jackson Cates, F Joel Farabee, F Tyson Foerster, F Morgan Frost, F Tanner Laczynski, D Cameron York

Key Decisions

There aren’t many tough decisions for the Flyers to make.  In goal, it’s Hart.  Yes, he had a bad season but Sandstrom hasn’t played in the NHL and Hart had two strong years before this one.  On the back end, they have three protection slots and three core defenders aged 25 or younger.  The math is pretty simple there.  But up front, there are some more intriguing decisions to make.

Typically, finishing tied for first in team scoring would generally make it a safe bet that the player who did that would be protected.  However, given Philadelphia’s cap situation, it’s far from a slam dunk for two of the three players that had 43 points this season (Giroux being a guaranteed protectee with his no-move clause).

Voracek has been a fixture in Philadelphia’s lineup for a decade with 604 points to his name in that span.  He still is a big part of their top-six.  However, his numbers have started to dip and he has only been a point per game player once in his 13-year career (the first three were in Columbus).  The 31-year-old also has three years left on his contract at a cap hit of $8.25MM.  That’s a particularly pricey contract in this marketplace, especially with the declining production.  His contract could be deemed too expensive to entice Kraken GM Ron Francis or, if he was selected, Flyers GM Chuck Fletcher would all of a sudden have ample cap space to try to bring in a replacement.

The third player that tied for the team lead in points is van Riemsdyk.  He actually had a bit of a bounce-back season while his point per game average (0.77) was the highest of his career.  There are similar arguments to Voracek though in that he’s overpriced in this current market at $7MM through 2022-23.  The 32-year-old also benefitted from the power play as 10 of his 17 goals came with the man advantage.  That’s a lot of money for a power play specialist, funds that could be redeployed to fill other areas on the roster.

Before digging into the other decisions, let’s quickly get through the other likely protectees up front.  Hayes is safe with his no-move clause while Couturier and Konecny are locks as well.  When Fletcher discussed Laughton’s contract extension before the trade deadline, he indicated the center would be protected.  Add Giroux to this group and that’s five of seven slots.  The remaining two could go to the pricey veterans or to some younger players.

Among their younger pieces, Patrick’s case is particularly intriguing.  The good news is that he was able to play this season after missing all of 2019-20 due to a migraine disorder.  The bad news is that he didn’t play particularly well, notching just four goals and five assists in 52 games while his -30 rating was tied for the second-worst in the league.  That’s not ideal production from any forward let alone one that’s four years removed from being the second-overall pick in the draft.  Patrick switched agents this year with his new representation believed to be tasked with evaluating if a change of scenery may be best for both sides.  All of this would suggest that the pending restricted free agent should be left available but he’s still just 22 and it’s hard to part with the potential upside for nothing.  It’s unlikely Seattle would pass him up.

Lindblom, who won the Masterton Trophy earlier this week, is also coming off of a down season, his first full year back after recovering from Ewing’s sarcoma.  Eight goals and six assists in 50 games isn’t a great return on a $3MM price tag, it’s also hard to evaluate him given how long he was off.  To expect him to return to the form he showed the previous two years would have entirely been unrealistic.  Does the benefit of the doubt get him protected?

Four players for two protection slots with cases to protect or unprotect all of them.  That is basically what Fletcher’s decision-making will need to be when it comes to Seattle.

Projected Protection List

F Sean Couturier
F Claude Giroux (NMC)
F Kevin Hayes (NMC)
F Travis Konecny
F Scott Laughton
F Oskar Lindblom
F Nolan Patrick

D Philippe Myers
D Ivan Provorov
D Travis Sanheim

G Carter Hart

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Nicolas Aube-Kubel, James van Riemsdyk, Jakub Voracek
Defensemen (3): Justin Braun, Shayne Gostisbehere, Robert Hagg

Seattle has to take a minimum of 60% of the Upper Limit of the salary cap (which works out to $48.9MM) in existing contracts so there are bound to be some pricey players selected and it could very well be one of Philadelphia’s high-priced forwards.  Both van Riemsdyk and Voracek would give them a capable top-six piece without an excessively long commitment while becoming a nice foundational piece to work with.

If they opt for a cheaper player, Braun would seemingly become the favorite to be picked with an eye on flipping the final year (at $1.8MM) of his deal either before the season or at the trade deadline.  Vegas picked and dealt a handful of defenders in their draft and the Kraken may very well following a similar blueprint next month.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

North Notes: Hamonic, Maple Leafs, Gustavsson

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Going back to his time with the Islanders, Canucks defenseman Travis Hamonic has wanted to play in Western Canada.  At the trade deadline this year, it’s believed that he vetoed a trade as he wanted to stay close to home.  However, as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports (Twitter link), the 30-year-old is willing to consider all options around the league this time around as he heads for unrestricted free agency again next month.  Hamonic isn’t going to put up many points (he last surpassed the 20-point plateau in 2015-16) but he has a reputation as a sound stay-at-home defender that can play top-four minutes.  His location limitations hurt his market last fall which resulted in a one-year, $1.25MM pact but with him being open to more teams now, he may be able to beat that this time around.

More from the North Division:

  • With Toronto facing significant cap challenges with their four high-paid forwards, it would stand to reason that they shouldn’t be going after a high-priced free agent. However, Sportsnet’s Luke Fox posits that the Maple Leafs should at least consider taking a run at Carolina blueliner Dougie Hamilton, who has permission to speak to other teams about a contract.  Such a move would require at least one significant contract coming off the books – perhaps Morgan Rielly – but Fox notes that they kicked the tires on Alex Pietrangelo last fall which suggests that GM Kyle Dubas may be willing to ponder a big swing again.
  • The Senators appear to be leaning towards protecting Filip Gustavsson over Joey Daccord for their protected goaltender from Seattle in expansion, reports Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch. While the 23-year-old doesn’t have great AHL numbers (a 3.20 GAA with a .894 SV% in 75 games), the pending restricted free agent certainly impressed in a late-season run with Ottawa with a 2.16 GAA and a .933 SV% in nine appearances.  Daccord, meanwhile, has better career numbers in the minors but hasn’t had much NHL success and posted a 3.27 GAA and a .897 SV% in eight games this season.  He has one year left on his deal at the league-minimum $750K.

Expansion Primer: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

The last time the Penguins faced an expansion draft, they ended up making what in hindsight looks like one of the biggest mistakes in Jim Rutherford’s time as general manager. The team decided to keep young Matt Murray over the more expensive veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, sending a 2020 second-round pick to Vegas just to make sure their franchise goaltender ended up a Golden Knight. All that Fleury has done since is put up a .917 save percentage and win 28 postseason games, while the Penguins quickly moved on from Murray after some injuries and inconsistencies.

Now helmed by Ron Hextall, the Penguins are in another tough expansion draft situation and look poised to lose a good player once again. Perhaps this time they won’t send a high draft pick along for the ride.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Evgeni Malkin (NMC), Sidney Crosby (NMC), Jake Guentzel, Jason Zucker, Brandon Tanev, Bryan Rust, Kasperi Kapanen, Jared McCann, Jeff Carter, Sam Lafferty, Anthony Angello, Zach Aston-Reese, Mark Jankowski, Teddy Blueger, Pontus Aberg, Sam Miletic

Defense:

Kris Letang (NMC), Mike Matheson, Brian Dumoulin, Marcus Pettersson, Juuso Riikola, Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Friedman, Jesper Lindgren

Goalies:

Tristan Jarry, Casey DeSmith

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Frederick Gaudreau, Colton Sceviour, Evan Rodrigues, Cody Ceci

Notable Exemptions

Drew O’Connor, Radim Zohorna, Samuel Poulin, John Marino, Pierre-Olivier Joseph

Key Decisions

Just looking at the number of key players the Penguins need to protect it’s obvious that they are not in a great situation when it comes to the expansion draft. That’s what happens when almost none of your impact roster spots are filled by young talent which would be exempt. Of the 22 players (goaltenders included) that appeared in at least 20 games for the Penguins this season, just one–Marino–was under the age of 24. Even he crossed that threshold a month ago but is saved by the fact that he did his developing in the NCAA ranks instead of the minors.

There are huge decisions to be made at each position for the Penguins. At forward, Malkin, Crosby, Kapanen, and Guentzel are easy choices, but even past that it becomes a little hazier. Rust is an important part of the team but has just one year left before unrestricted free agency, which the Penguins may not be able to afford. McCann is also due for a new contract after next season, though he will be through arbitration-eligible restricted free agency and is a strong candidate for protection. That’s six names already with Zucker, Tanev, Carter, and Blueger still to go.

The final spot, if the Penguins decide to protect those first six (which is certainly not a guarantee), could be debated for hours. Carter played extremely well after a trade from Los Angeles and has a long history with Hextall. The idea that he may retire if sent somewhere he doesn’t want to play has been floated out there so many times that the Kraken may be wary of selecting him anyway. Blueger has turned into a valuable checking center for the team and could likely be signed to a reasonable contract, but is also just a year away from unrestricted free agency. Tanev is a beloved bottom-six wrecking ball, but wasn’t signed to that six-year $21MM deal by the new management group and provides very little offensive production. Zucker, for all his skill, is coming off a brutal season and costs $5.5MM against the cap. In a tight financial situation, the Kraken taking him off the Penguins’ hands wouldn’t be the worst outcome.

On defense, there are just more question marks. Letang and Dumoulin are obvious choices for protection, with the former’s no-movement clause taking the decision out of Hextall’s hands anyway. The third spot though is up for debate, with several players potentially grabbing it. Matheson rediscovered his game in Pittsburgh this season, but is on a hefty contract that runs through the 2026-27 season. Pettersson took a step back in 2020-21, but has shown an ability to contribute in the top-four in the past. Even Friedman, who goes back quite a way with Hextall, could be seen as someone to keep in the fold as a relatively young depth option. The 25-year-old actually carries a cap hit less than the league minimum for next season.

In net, the enigma that is Jarry should be the one getting protected, but after an embarrassing playoff performance, there’s no guarantee he does. In fact, DeSmith’s $1.25MM cap hit next season actually looks like a better value contract, especially if the Penguins’ brass is looking to find a new starting goaltender anyway. Exposing Jarry may actually also draw some attention away from the forward group, given his previous status as a top up-and-coming netminder. One thing that might factor in here is DeSmith’s recent core muscle surgery, which the Penguins would obviously know more about than anyone else in the league.

Projected Protection List

F Evgeni Malkin
F Sidney Crosby
F Jake Guentzel
F Brandon Tanev
F Bryan Rust
F Kasperi Kapanen
F Jared McCann

D Kris Letang
D Brian Dumoulin
D Mike Matheson

G Tristan Jarry

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Jason Zucker, Jeff Carter, Sam Lafferty
Defensemen (2): Marcus Pettersson, Chad Ruhwedel

The Penguins have more than enough forwards that meet the requirements, even if they decided to protect the likes of Zucker and Carter instead of someone else. There shouldn’t be a problem here unless they start trading people out before the draft. The same can be said about the defense, where Ruhwedel will be available basically no matter what happens with the protection decisions.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: San Jose Sharks

at CDT | by 6 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, the San Jose Sharks ended up losing David Schlemko to the Vegas Golden Knights in the expansion process after they decided not to make any side deals with the incoming team. Vegas decided on Schlemko with the intention of a trade and quickly flipped him to the Montreal Canadiens for a fifth-round pick. The Sharks are the perfect example in favor of just letting the expansion process play out, as the Golden Knights ended up leaving other names like Brenden Dillon on the table. Schlemko played just 55 more NHL games and was out of professional hockey after the 2018-19 season.

At that point, the Sharks were a recent Stanley Cup runner-up and had been to the playoffs 13 of the previous 14 seasons. It’s a much different situation this time after two years of missing the postseason and the protection options show how thin the roster is getting.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:

Logan Couture, Evander Kane, Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl, Kevin Labanc, Ryan Donato, Alexander True, Rudolfs Balcers, Jayden Halbgewachs, Dylan Gambrell, Jonatan Dahlen

Defense:

Erik Karlsson (NMC), Brent Burns, Marc-Edouard Vlasic (NMC), Radim Simek, Christian Jaros, Jacob Middleton, Nicolas Meloche

Goalies:

Martin Jones, Josef Korenar

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Marcus Sorensen, Matthew Nieto, Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Maxim Letunov, Greg Pateryn

Notable Exemptions

Alexander Barabanov, John Leonard, Nikolai Knyzhov, Mario Ferraro, Noah Gregor, Alexei Melnichuk, Sasha Chmelevski, Ivan Chekhovich

Key Decisions

Overall, the Sharks are facing a tough offseason. How do you retool and get the roster back to contender status when you have so much money tied up in aging players? The contracts handed out to the old core are anchors on the roster now, especially in a flat-cap world, and there are holes all over the place. With that in mind, the Sharks could potentially use the expansion draft as an opportunity, trying to bait (or entice) the Kraken into taking one of those contracts off the books.

That discussion starts (and perhaps ends) with Burns, the bearded, unique, franchise icon that has done so many incredible things for the Sharks. Burns turned 36 in March and just had his second-worst offensive season (even by points-per-game) since arriving in San Jose a decade ago. Gone are the days of the 20+ goal, point-per-game rover that took home the Norris Trophy in 2017 and yet, there are still four more years on his contract at an $8MM cap hit. It’s not that Burns is completely ineffective, but the idea of having his contract vanish has to be at least a little bit enticing for GM Doug Wilson. That’s a tough trigger to pull given how popular he is in the market, but it actually might be the most effective way to clear some space.

A move like that is only even a possibility because both Karlsson and Vlasic have no-movement clauses that force San Jose to protect them in the draft. Getting out from either one of their contracts—seven more years at $11.5MM for Karlsson and five at $7MM for Vlasic—would be ideal, but isn’t possible unless Wilson can somehow convince them to waive their clause.

If the team goes with the traditional seven forwards/three defensemen protection scheme, which is likely, that basically makes the decision either Burns or Simek for the last spot. The 28-year-old Simek signed a four-year, $9MM contract just over a year ago and looked like a stable, stay-at-home foil for Burns or Karlsson,  but has quickly been passed on the depth chart by younger options. Though he dealt with some injuries this season, Simek only averaged 14:13 in ice time through 40 appearances and really doesn’t need to be protected at this point.

Upfront, things are a little more favorable. Couture, Kane, Meier, Hertl, and Labanc seem like locks for protection, even though not all of them lived up to their contracts this season. Even though Meier and Labanc only had 12 goals each, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to expose them and give up on the chance for a bounceback in 2021-22.

That leaves two protection spots available at forward and there are several options. Donato was supposed to reach another level in San Jose after being acquired for a third-round pick in October, but managed just six goals and 20 points in 50 games. He is actually a restricted free agent, so even if the team wants to leave him exposed to fill a required spot he’d need a new contract first. Balcers showed flashes potential and could likely warrant a spot, while Gambrell is at least still young enough to hopefully take a step forward offensively.

The real wildcard is Dahlen, who just signed a contract to return from Sweden after dominating the second tier there. The 23-year-old is the kind of boom-or-bust prospect that an expansion team would love to get their hands on, meaning San Jose is probably going to have to protect him. There’s no guarantee Dahlen ever works in the NHL, but his offensive skill makes him so intriguing that Seattle would have to take a swing.

In net, it seems obvious to leave Jones exposed and protect Korenar. Even though the young goaltender didn’t perform particularly well in his ten-game stint this season, Jones has been so bad for so long now that it would be a miracle to get his contract off the books. For three straight seasons, Jones has posted an .896 save percentage as the team’s starting goaltender and he has three years at $5.75MM left on his deal.

Projected Protection List

F Logan Couture
F Evander Kane
F Timo Meier
F Tomas Hertl
F Kevin Labanc
F Jonatan Dahlen
F Rudolfs Balcers

D Erik Karlsson
D Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D Brent Burns

G Josef Korenar

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (0)
Defensemen (1): Radim Simek

The Sharks actually don’t have either of their required forward spots filled if they protect those top five, but could easily fix this with new contracts for Donato and Gambrell. Even re-signing Marleau would give them one, if the all-time games played leader is serious about returning for another season. Remember though that this isn’t a perfect situation to be in, given that both Donato and Gambrell are arbitration-eligible. It’s doesn’t help leverage much when the other side knows the contract they are signing may immediately go to another team. Either one could decide to wait for the arbitration process, leaving the Sharks in a tougher spot with the expansion draft coming in just over a month.

At defense, even if the Sharks decided to leave Burns exposed instead, he fills the requirement as well.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

Expansion Primer: St. Louis Blues

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Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

In the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, the St. Louis Blues opted to protect expiring assets and role players like Patrik Berglund, Ryan Reaves, and Vladimir Sobotka and as a result lost top-six forward David Perron to the Vegas Golden Knights. The Blues watched as Perron enjoyed what was then the best season of his NHL career and led the Knights to the Stanley Cup Final while they missed the playoffs.

Fortunately, the team learned from their mistakes. They re-signed Perron the following season, won the Stanley Cup, and now three years later Perron is coming off the best campaign of his career. This time around he will be safe, as will most of the Blues’ top players. However, a deep, talented roster will not be able to completely avoid another impact loss in expansion.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Sam Anas, Ivan Barbashev, Sammy Blais, Kyle Clifford, Jacob de La Rose, Tanner Kaspick, Jordan Kyrou, Mackenzie MacEachern, Ryan O’Reilly, David Perron, Zach Sanford, Brayden Schenn, Nolan Stevens, Oskar Sundqvist, Vladimir Tarasenko, Robert Thomas

Defense:
Robert Bortuzzo, Vince Dunn, Justin Faulk, Niko Mikkola, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, Steven Santini, Marco Scandella, Jake Walman

Goalies:
Jordan Binnington, Evan Fitzpatrick, Ville Husso

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

F Tyler Bozak, D Carl Gunnarsson, F Mike Hoffman, F Jaden Schwartz

Notable Exemptions

G Joel Hofer, F Dakota Joshua, F Klim Kostin, F Jake Neighbours, D Scott Perunovich

Key Decisions

In contrast to successful team-building, depth and long-term security are the enemy of the Expansion Draft. The St. Louis Blues have built a strong roster with talent throughout the lineup and most of those players are signed beyond this season. With only eight skaters or seven forwards and three defenseman who can be protected, the Blues will expose a number of valuable assets and there is little they can do about it. But they will try.

The first question for the Blues is really what protection scheme to use, which comes down to x-factor number one: Vince Dunn. Following a resurgent season, Dunn was back in the good graces of St. Louis, at least until the trade talks returned of late. As promising as the 24-year-old defenseman may be, the Blues have refrained from giving him a true top-four role and he has also failed to produce top-four numbers. He was fifth in average time on ice among St. Louis defensemen in 2020-21 and while he was third in defensive scoring, most of his production came on the power play. He was fifth in blocked shots and fifth in hits, noticeably behind Krug in both, a player that specializes in neither. While he skates well, Dunn is susceptible to turnovers and is caught out of position frequently. When determining whether or not to protect Dunn, the upside argument for is strong, but the depth argument against is stronger. Compared to Faulk and Krug, the Blues’ two best all-around defensemen this season who the club has committed extensive money and term to, and Parayko, who has a unique blend of size and skill and has been steady throughout his career, it is hard to claim that Dunn is more worthy of protection in a 7-3 scheme despite his age and potential.

With all that said, there is a way to keep Dunn in addition to the three likely locks for protection on the blue line. The Blues could instead go with the eight-skater protection scheme, in which Dunn faces a much easier battle for a protection slot with the veteran Scandella. Of course, the trade-off for the Blues in protecting Dunn is exposing three extra forwards. Depth comes in to play here as well, as the forward corps is no different than the defense in terms of too many valuable players. With top scorer and 2017 Expansion casualty Perron locked in, as well as captain and elite two-way center O’Reilly, consistent top scorer Schenn, and all-world sniper Tarasenko, Dunn’s competition for protection are other fellow young players. Would the Blues really rather keep him over breakout rookie Kyrou? Or promising 21-year-old Thomas? It seems very unlikely, even as Dunn showed improvement this year. And thus the trade rumors. St. Louis will do its best not to lose Dunn for nothing given the promise he has shown, but if they are unable to make a trade before the Expansion Draft, they will let Seattle have the option of taking him over a future top-six forward.

The scheme resolution and acceptance that Dunn would be an attractive target if left exposed doesn’t make the decisions up front any easier for the Blues though. Even with seven forwards under protection, there will still be talent available to the Kraken. This is where x-factor number two comes in: Jaden Schwartz. Perron, O’Reilly, Schenn, Tarasenko, Kyrou, and Thomas are not going anywhere. Sure, there is some debate over Perron’s age or Tarasenko’s injury concerns, but neither argument is strong enough to leave a player of their caliber exposed. So, the Blues have one spot left at forward. Currently, Schwartz is slated for unrestricted free agency. The long-time St. Louis top-sixer may be too expensive for the team to re-sign, especially as he eyes a weak free agent market, but they will try. If the Blues come to an agreement with Schwartz before the Expansion Draft, they may decide to officially sign him or protect him as a UFA. Once Seattle has a chance to speak with Schwartz, their offer could mark the end of any handshake agreement he had with the Blues, so St. Louis could want the added security.

The other possibility is that the Blues either don’t reach an agreement with Schwartz in time or simply decide that using a protection slot on a UFA is not worth it. This does not rule out a Schwartz return to St. Louis, but it does open up the conversation of who else is deserving of that final spot. Impending free agents Bozak and Hoffman are unlikely to return and will not be protected and checking forwards Clifford and MacEachern, while valued, don’t stand up against the team’s top-nine options. Barbashev, Blais, Sanford, and Sundqvist will all be in consideration and all have a decent case for protection.

Sanford was the leading scorer of the bunch this season, but each of the other three missed time, especially Sundqvist whose season was lost to a torn ACL midway through the year. On a per-game basis, it was actually Blais that led the way. Blais is also the youngest of the group and the most physical, which could give him a leg up. Then again, Blais also had the lowest time on ice per game and contributed the least on special teams. Barbashev was the only positive player of the group and the possession leader. The decision may be one of the tightest for any team at any position, especially with four valid options. As a result, it may not come down to performance at all. Sundqvist, though a great defensive forward, is coming off of a major injury and has two years left on his current contract at $2.75MM. The Kraken would be taking a risk by selecting him, which likely leaves him exposed. Barbashev and Sanford have been in the NHL for a similar amount of time and have similar career offensive numbers. However, the more important thing that they both have in common is that they are both unsigned restricted free agents. If that does not change before the Expansion Draft, it makes both players less likely to be selected – if only slightly – as Seattle must take 20 players with term of their 30 picks, meaning Barbashev or Sanford would have to be deemed worthy of one of a maximum ten slots for RFA’s and UFA’s. It also stands to reason that either one could replace the loss of the other. This leaves Blais as the unique member of the group: healthy, under contract, and not to mention coming off a season in which he showed flashes of top-six potential. He may not be the best player of the four, but he is the safest pick for protection.

Finally, in goal there is no decision at all. Binnington is the unrivaled starter and the clear protection selection. Though he has been slow to develop, Fitzpatrick finally showed this season in the AHL the potential that made him a second-round draft choice, but it isn’t enough to usurp Binnington.

Projected Protection List

F Sammy Blais
F Jordan Kyrou
F Ryan O’Reilly
F David Perron
F Brayden Schenn
F Vladimir Tarasenko
F Robert Thomas

D Justin Faulk
D Torey Krug
D Colton Parayko

G Jordan Binnington

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (3): Kyle Clifford, Mackenzie MacEachern, Oskar Sundqvist

Defensemen (3): Robert Bortuzzo, Niko Mikkola, Marco Scandella

The Blues have the type of roster where they may want to look into a trade with Seattle for the Kraken to select a specific player in exchange for a draft pick or prospect rather than leaving so many valuable players exposed. Even with their seven best forwards, top three defensemen, and starting goalie protected, St. Louis faces the certainty of impact loss. If not traded beforehand, Dunn would be a major loss. If Sundqvist returns to full strength, he too would be a player the Blues would really miss and would be an asset to the Kraken. Either of Sanford or Barbashev could break out in a greater role in Seattle. Even prospect goalie Fitzpatrick or veteran defenseman Scandella would hurt. Would it be worth a mid-round pick just to hand-pick who was leaving ahead of time?

St. Louis has all the incentive to leave their pending UFA’s exposed in hopes that Seattle takes the bait. The team could very well be interested in all three of Schwartz, Hoffman, and Bozak, considering the former two will be top free agent scorers and the latter could help to address a need down the middle that expansion teams tend to have. However, there is such enticing value available to the Kraken elsewhere, that they too have incentive to talk to the Blues’ UFA’s but not select them, opting for a current roster player instead with the opportunity to circle back on any of Schwartz, Hoffman, or Bozak on the open market. Seattle could also take advantage of a vulnerable Blues team to add a valuable draft pick, still select a solid player, and again turn around and sign a free agent. There are many opportunities for the Kraken – far more than St. Louis would like.

Expansion Primer: Tampa Bay Lightning

at CDT | by 11 Comments

Over the next few weeks, we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2021 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, who will likely warrant protection, and which ones may be on the block to avoid the risk of losing them for nothing? Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4:00 PM CDT on July 17th. The full eligibility rules can be found here, while CapFriendly has an expansion tool to make your own lists.

Back in 2017, Tampa Bay made a side deal with Vegas to force them into taking defenseman Jason Garrison.  The price they paid was fairly steep in Nikita Gusev plus second and fourth-round draft picks but it allowed them to retain two young blueliners in Jake Dotchin and Slater Koekkoek.  With their salary cap situation, it seems quite likely that the Lightning will be making a trade with Seattle to get them to pick a specific player.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards:
Alex Barre-Boulet, Anthony Cirelli, Ross Colton, Nikita Kucherov (NMC), Yanni Gourde, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Boris Katchouk, Alex Killorn, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point, Taylor Raddysh, Otto Somppi, Steven Stamkos (NMC), Mitchell Stephens, Daniel Walcott

Defense:
Erik Cernak, Sean Day, Callan Foote, Victor Hedman (NMC), Dominik Masin, Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta, Mikhail Sergachev

Goalies:
Spencer Martin, Andrei Vasilevskiy

Notable Unrestricted Free Agents

Andreas Borgman, Fredrik Claesson, Blake Coleman, Barclay Goodrow, David Savard, Luke Schenn, Gemel Smith

Notable Exemptions

G Hugo Alnefelt, F Ryan Lohin, F Jimmy Huntington, G Amir Miftakhov, F Antoine Morand

Key Decisions

There are some problems that are good to have and having too many good players is certainly one of them.  Without a side deal in place, it means that Tampa Bay is going to lose a good one no matter which route they go.

Let’s look at their defense first.  Hedman and Sergachev are sure-fire bets to be protected but that’s about it.  McDonagh is a key cog on their back end and logged nearly 22 minutes a game during the regular season and that has gone up slightly in the playoffs.  He’s a big part of the puzzle.  However, he’s also 32 years old and signed through 2026 at a $6.75MM AAV.  With that term and price tag, could he safely be left unprotected?

That would leave at least one opening for a younger blueliner although there are a couple of players to consider for that potential last spot in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Cernak took another step forward this season, spending a lot of it inside Tampa’s top four.  He’s signed on a team-friendly bridge deal for two more years at $2.95MM and making him available would be very enticing for the Kraken.

Then there’s Foote.  He only made his NHL debut this season in what was a very limited role but he’s also not that far removed from being a first-round pick as he was selected 14th overall back in 2017.  He’ll need waivers beginning next year so he should be a full-timer on the roster at what should be a price tag of under $1MM on a short-term contract.  Given their cap situation, it would be hard to part with a cheap roster player.

That cap situation will certainly dictate their approach with their forwards as well.  Kucherov and Stamkos are automatic protectees while Point and Cirelli don’t have to be protected but are safe bets to be.

Normally, finishing fourth on the team in scoring would make a player be a safe bet to be protected but that’s not the case with Gourde.  The small center played at a 25-goal, 52-point pace this season which is quite good but he’s on the books for four more years at $5.167MM.  That’s not a bad return on the contract but knowing that they need to free up some money, he could be left unprotected.

Palat finished second in scoring behind only Point and even that isn’t enough to make him a lock to be protected.  His price tag is certainly reasonable at $5.3MM and he only has one year left so it’s not a long-term drag on Tampa Bay’s cap.  But if they want to protect four defensemen, Palat could very well be squeezed out.

Killorn is another long-time Lightning veteran that could feel the squeeze.  He played at a 40-plus-point pace again this season and would have gotten there had it not been for the pandemic-shortened campaign which would have been the fourth straight year of getting to that mark.  At $4.45MM, he’s not overly expensive either and with only two years left, it’s certainly a manageable deal.  But again, they’re facing a situation where they simply have to move money out.

Before looking into some of the other forward candidates, let’s get to the obvious veteran on this list in Johnson.  Tampa Bay clearly tried to move him last fall and when they couldn’t find a taker, they put him on waivers but had no luck there either.  It’s not that he’s a bad player by any stretch, he’s just too expensive for the role he provides.  He’s a capable middle-six center and if he was a free agent tomorrow, there would be plenty of interest.  But the 30-year-old isn’t a free agent, he has three years left at a $5MM cap hit.  The expectation is that the Lightning will try to make a deal to entice Seattle to take that contract off their hands but it will have to be a sizable premium paid as there will be quality players to pick from.

Knowing they will need some cost-efficient forwards as well, there could also be an inclination to try to protect one or more of them in a 7/3/1 scheme.  Barre-Boulet held his own in his first taste of NHL action this season after being a consistently high scorer in the AHL.  Joseph had a dozen goals this season while primarily playing on the fourth line while Stephens was a regular for more than half of last year.  Even Katchouk, who doesn’t have any NHL experience, showed a lot with AHL Syracuse this season and should be in the mix for a roster spot next year.  They all have some NHL upside and are all affordable which is a combination that they need to try to hold on to.  Having said that, it would be hard to see those players crack their protected list.

Projected Protection List

F Anthony Cirelli
F Nikita Kucherov (NMC)
F Brayden Point
F Steven Stamkos (NMC)

D Erik Cernak
D Callan Foote
D Victor Hedman (NMC)
D Mikhail Sergachev

G Andrei Vasilevskiy

Skater Exposure Requirement Checklist

When Vegas had their expansion draft, a minimum of two forwards and one defenseman had to be exposed that were under contract and played either 40 games in the most recent season or 70 over the past two combined.  Due to the pandemic, those thresholds have been changed to 27 games played in 2020-21 or 54 in 2019/20 and 2020-21 combined.  In creating our expansion list for each team in this series, we will ensure that these criteria are met.

Forwards (6): Yanni Gourde, Alex Killorn, Tyler Johnson, Mathieu Joseph, Pat Maroon, Ondrej Palat
Defensemen (2): Ryan McDonagh, Jan Rutta

In terms of who’s available from this list, Palat would be the most tempting choice and if they can’t find a side deal to force them to take Johnson (or another similarly-priced player), they could be at risk of losing their second-leading scorer.  This was put together with the assumption that they’ll want to keep Foote, who will almost certainly play a bigger role next season, in the fold but if they are okay with losing him, they would be safer flipping to the 7/3/1 scheme with Palat, Killorn, and Gourde seeming like the safest bets to be protected.  Either way, with so many talented players, they’re going to lose someone of note so expect GM Julien BriseBois to be active in trying to make a side deal control which one joins Seattle.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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