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Senators Passed Up Chance To Unload Ryan

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One of the few players who was heavily anticipated to become a Vegas Golden Knight did not – Bobby Ryan. Despite an above-average playoff performance in the Senators’ heartbreaking Conference Final run, Ryan has vastly under-performed relative to his contract. Instead of coordinating a deal to unload that contract to Vegas, they instead lost Marc Methot, perhaps the second best defenseman on the team in that Cinderella story. Methot’s contract was not perfect, to be sure, but Ryan’s deal still looms large over the team for years.

It should be noted that Ryan has been a consistent 50+ point producer prior to this season, where he tallied only 25 through 62 contests. He’s been on pace for over 50 every year since he was a rookie. That said, his fall from grace in 2016-17was concerning and dramatic. His puck control seriously declined, his decision making faltered, and his production took a nosedive. With only 12 goals, and coming off a hot post-season, the time was ripe for GM Pierre Dorion to take advantage of Vegas’ unique situation and rid himself of a bad contract. Earning $7.25 MM AAV for the next five seasons, Ryan is the 36th highest paid forward in the league, and second-highest on the payroll behind Erik Karlsson.

For those who believe such an arrangement could not have been worked out, merely look at some of the contracts Vegas did take on. The essentially retired David Clarkson’s $5.25 MM for the next 3 seasons was shipped out at the price of a first and a 2020 second. The perennially concussed Mikhail Grabovski was dealt for a similar package, which also protected some of the Islanders’ players. Vegas also didn’t shy away from taking veteran players with value – they selected James Neal (29 years old) from Nashville as well as David Perron from the Blues (29 years old). Certainly, with a little encouragement, George McPhee might have entertained the possibility of Ryan as a Knight. The price may have been steep, but Karlsson is in the prime of his career, while many players are looking for raises in the immediate future. Clearing Ryan’s albatross off the books may have gone a long way towards building toward a consistent contender.

Ultimately, Dorion decided against unloading a bloated contract in hopes that Ryan’s post-season revival was no mirage. With the UFA crop available, it’s difficult to blame the management for doubling down on the struggling winger. Five roster players will be UFA after this season, including Craig Anderson and Kyle Turris, while Mark Stone (RFA) has earned a raise. Karlsson will then be due a raise for 2019-20, as will five other forwards. The team will need to rely upon cost-effective ELC players and bargain contracts to continue holding pace with the rest of the Atlantic division. Only time will tell whether the Ryan decision was the correct one.

Bad Value: The Worst Contracts League-Wide

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It’s always interesting to see where teams are spending their money unwisely, especially to the armchair GMs of every fanbase. In a fine article by Satchel Price of SB Nation, he breaks down what he believes is each team’s worst contract currently on the books. After the slew of buyouts that happened early in the off-season, many teams were able to cut ties with some of the worst offenders. Still, some of the worst cap criminals are primed to haunt their teams yet again in 2017-18. Discounting the injured Nathan Horton, David Clarkson, and Dave Bolland, these were some of the names that stuck out on the list.

David Backes – Boston Bruins – 4 yrs x $6 MM

When Backes signed this contract, many were wondering what the Boston management were thinking. Backes already was showing signs of decline his last two seasons in St. Louis, and his tough style of play was always going to take away from his longevity. He still flirts with 40+ points and adds solid two-way ability. But in 2 seasons, if Backes continues to slow and falter possession-wise, this contract may become a brutal obstacle to beefing up the offense.

Brent Seabrook – Chicago Blackhawks – 7 yrs x $6.785 MM

Seabrook was a player who really piggy-backed off the success of the Hawks cup teams. He was a solid player, but by no means a core player. GM Stan Bowman thought differently, and handed out a massive, maximum-term contract, complete with a no-movement clause. Chicago has really struggled to fill their depth forward and bottom defensive positions out with cheap players, largely because of overpayments like this. Seabrook did accumulate a ton of assists last year, but his goal scoring has all but disappeared. Perhaps the worst negative to Seabrook? He’s never been a positive possession player in Corsi relative, in any single season he’s played. For a franchise that pays Jonathan Toews over $10 MM AAV, this contract is absolutely crippling.

Dustin Brown – L.A. Kings – 5 yrs x $5.875 MM

Brown benefited from the same intangibles-related inflation that Toews did. Leading a team to multiple Cups is generally a recipe to have your value balloon immensely. Winners are winners, after all. Brown, though, was never really integral to the team’s on-ice success in 2012 or 2014, and his undisputed leadership abilities didn’t help the team in the past few years when they have struggled to put pucks in the nett. His two-way ability is solid, but not elite, and he hasn’t broken 20 goals since 2011-12. Perhaps Brown can be revitalized under the system of coach John Stevens, but his body has to have taken a toll with the way he’s played the game. One need only look to former King Mike Richards to see what gritty, shot-blocking forwards have in the way of staying power.

Marc Staal – New York Rangers – 4 yrs x $5.75 MM

In all likelihood, the primary reason Staal has not already been bought out is because he had one more year on his contract than the much-maligned Dan Girardi. Staal has been a noticeably bad defender in terms of possession stats for the last three seasons, and showed few (if any) signs of improvement this season. He still logs over 19 minutes of ice a night, so he’s not stapled to the bench. But he’s not a top-four defender at this point, and considering how he’s never been a two-way threat, his one-dimensional game may only deteriorate further.

Andrew MacDonald – Philadelphia Flyers – 3 ys x $5 MM

This is a prime example of an error that most teams have learned to avoid – handing out multi-year deals to wildly inconsistent players. MacDonald had his offensive totals inflated by playing for a very lean New York Islanders team, and Philadelphia pounced on acquiring this player in the midst of a -9.0% Corsi Relative season. MacDonald has since dried up offensively, and while he has cleaned up his possession numbers against weaker competition, he still needs massive sheltering. He also has had a heck of a time staying healthy – he’s missed 93 contests over the last 3 campaigns. MacDonald is now taking valuable playing time from a young defensive core and hindering the team’s ability to acquire top free agents.

 

East Notes: Bylsma, Guentzel, Rowney

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The Athletic’s Craig Custance caught up with former Pittsburgh Penguins and Buffalo Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma who had some thoughts on how the Detroit Red Wings should approach their roster. Ironically enough, Bylsma grew up a Detroit fan, since he was a Michigan resident. Custance quizzed Bylsma on a number of topics, including a Red Wings rebuild and his time with the Sabres. On the Red Wings, Bylsma admits that Detroit is no longer model franchise in the league and that fans will “never see” the team they once saw that featured bonafide stars like Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, Steve Yzerman, and Sergei Fedorov, to name a few. The former bench boss guesses that the Red Wings roster will look dynamically different in three years as they’ll be forced to rebuild a team that has certainly struggled. He also believes fans are ready for a rebuild, preferring to see a competitive team that grows into playoff dominance instead of keeping the “streak” alive with aging players and early playoff exits. He doesn’t believe, however, that the Red Wings need a total teardown to win. Instead, he thinks that steady drafting can keep Detroit relevant without ripping out the foundation.

  • When it came to talking about Buffalo, however, Bylsma was coy. When he arrived in Buffalo, the team was in the midst of a tear down and rebuilding with the likes of Jack Eichel, and other young, dynamic players. While there were some strides, last season was disastrous, costing both Bylsma and former general manager Tim Murray their jobs. Bylsma admits to Custance that he didn’t want to talk about what happened in Buffalo while explaining that Detroit hasn’t gutted things like Buffalo did. He also believes that a teardown-build up program takes several years, sometimes up to five. That’s understandable from his vantage point, given that he only had two years in Buffalo to try and win. It has to be said that Toronto’s resurgence couldn’t have helped matters, as the Leafs not only qualified for the playoffs, but gave Washington a scare in the first round.
  • NBC Sports’ Adam Gretz writes that with Connor Sheary re-signed, the Pittsburgh Penguins will turn their attention to grabbing a third line center. He makes a couple suggestions, wondering if Jake Guentzel could move over to center line or if youngster Carter Rowney is ready for full time duty. The most realistic option, Gretz believes, is for Pittsburgh general manager Jim Rutherford to explore trades to fill the vacancy and give the Pens a solid chance to win their third consecutive Cup.

Kings Looking To Shift Course

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After missing the playoffs two seasons in a row, the L.A. Kings have fallen pretty hard from grace. After winning the cup twice in three years, it’s been one bad story after another for the team from Hollywood. Dustin Brown was stripped of the captaincy and relegated to bottom-six duties, not long after former key contributor Mike Richards found himself terminated due to a combination of on-ice, off-ice, and salary issues. Matt Greene had to be bought out entirely. Marian Gaborik is 35, signed for four more seasons, and just put together two underwhelming performances back-t0-back. The defense has gotten more top-heavy, and after losing Brayden McNabb to Vegas in the expansion draft, is set to lose another valuable piece. The head coach who earned the franchise its two rings was fired and a re-tread coach from Philadelphia will get his opportunity in 2017-18.

In an article with the L.A. Times written by Helene Elliotts, GM Rob Blake details the change in philosophy the Kings will need to adopt if they are going to find success in the near future. Ultimately, he wants to predicate the team’s identity more on speed, while staying true to their defensive style. Los Angeles has played a heavy, physical, stifling game to get their championships, and it appears that Blake is shifting away from that mantra next season. He isolated the “core” of the team as Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, and Jonathan Quick. It might be drawn from his sentiment thatt other, more expendable pieces that may be available if the Kings continue to merely tread water.

Los Angeles did make a decent bargain-bin signing in Mike Cammalleri, who was sunk by a capsized New Jersey Devils squad last season. The potential for him to rebound and be productive is quite high, but it may not be nearly enough. The Kings beat out only Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey and Vancouver in terms of fewest goals scored. Carter and Pearson were the only twenty-goal scorers on the team. Guaranteed offense is an absolute need, and although former coach Darryl Sutter’s systems were a component of the struggles, the team needs more reliable production. Their defense is still the team’s greatest organizational strength, but it does strike some as odd that a player like McNabb wasn’t shuffled elsewhere for scoring help rather than being sacrificed for nothing to expansion.

If the Kings decide at this late stage to go the free agency route, their options are solid if a bit older. If speed is the determinant factor, that may seem to rule out the likes of Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, while leaving the possibility of a Thomas Vanek signing open. More likely, however, the Blake and the Kings will need to probe the trade market. From there, the team will likely need to surrender future assets if they hope to receive solid scoring in a returning package. The team could take a lot of offensive pressure off of Kopitar (who himself is more of a two-way player) if they could swing a trade for a solid center. Matt Duchene is likely out of their price range, and Alex Galchenyuk’s value just skyrocketed. The bottom-six wingers are dreadfully lacking in experience, so an upgrade to the third line couldn’t hurt. Cap space is tight, however, as the team will only have over $5.5 MM after re-signing RFAs Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel. It may take outside-the-box thinking to bring the Kings back into contender status, but Blake seems primed to make moves, albeit on his own timeline.

Dave Semenko Passes At Age 59

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The hockey world mourns today, as Jim Matheson of the Edmonton Journal passes along some tragic news. Dave Semenko, long-time Oiler and running mate of Wayne Gretzky, has died after a battle with cancer. Semenko was just 59 years old. The Oilers released a statement: Dave Semenko

It is with great sadness we announce the passing of Oilers legend Dave Semenko after a short, but courageous battle with cancer. Dave will be remembered as a fierce competitor, loyal teammate, fan favorite and dear friend to so many. His legendary toughness on the ice is surpassed only by his kindness and caring for others, and his equally legendary wit and sense of humor.

Our hearts go out to Dave’s family and many friends.

Once an Oiler, Always an Oiler

Semenko was a force for the Oilers in the 1980s, riding shotgun with Gretzky to make sure no opponent took any cheap shots. His role was clear, but it didn’t stop him from enjoying when he did score. In fact, he tallied the final goal in WHA history before Edmonton was absorbed into the NHL, a tap-in at the side of the goal with just 12 seconds left in the final Championship game. The Winnipeg Jets would win that game and the title, but Semenko would get his revenge a few years later when he and the Oilers hoisted back-to-back Stanley Cups in 1984 and 1985.

Our former colleague Brett Barrett, who now works for Global News in Edmonton, grew up an Oilers fan and put it simply when asked.

“He was an absolute legend.”

It’s true, Semenko was spoken highly of by nearly every single person in the hockey community, mostly mentioning his genuine sense of humor and good nature, despite the angry monster he was on the ice. Semenko had worked in radio, as an assistant coach and in a scouting capacity since retirement and even played in the recent alumni game between the Oilers and Jets. He’ll by missed by everyone who cheered in awe of him both for and against, and everyone here at PHR wishes his family the best through this tough time.

Former Blackhawks All-Star Bill White Passes Away

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On Monday, the hockey world lost Bill White, a six-time All-Star and one of the great defenseman of the 1970’s, at the age of 77. White was a perennial All-Star and Norris Trophy candidate every year from 1969 to 1974 and spent the majority of his career with the Chicago Blackhawks. The organization mourned the loss of their former star and offered condolences to his family and friends and team historian Bob Verdi recalled his great career and how much he meant to the Blackhawks.

White’s NHL career began with the Los Angeles Kings in 1967, when he scored 38 points and racked up 100 penalty minutes as a rookie, establishing that he was here to stay in the big leagues. White was traded to Chicago in February of 1970 as the centerpiece of a six-player swap. With two All-Star appearances already, White still took his game to the next level with the Blackhawks. From 1971 to 1974, White added four more All-Star game appearances, was twice named a Second-Team All-NHL selection, and twice finished in the top ten in the league in +/-.

Sadly, white suffered a career-ending neck injury toward the end of the 1975-76 season at 36 years old, but nevertheless he remained committed to the team. White stayed on as a coach and the next season replaced long-time head coach Billy Reay and finished out the campaign. Altogether, White finished his NHL career with 265 points in 604 regular season games and another 39 points in 91 playoff games as a player and a 16-24-6 record in 46 games as a coach.

Morning Notes: Crosby, Ovechkin, Sabres Search

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After skating on his own yesterday, Sidney Crosby was back at Penguins’ practice today in a regular jersey and looks poised to return to the lineup tomorrow night in Washington. If he does, it would be just five days since suffering a concussion due to Matt Niskanen’s cross-check on Monday night. The idea of returning so quickly may be familiar to Penguins fans that remember Crosby’s first concussion. After being hit by David Steckel in the 2010-11 Winter Classic, Crosby would return just a few days later to face the Tampa Bay Lightning.  After another (much less violent) hit from Victor Hedman, he’d lose the rest of the season and part of the next year.

While obviously if he’s returning it means that the Pittsburgh medical staff has signed off, returning so soon is still a risk for the Penguins’ captain. His history with head injuries is getting longer and longer, and there have been many instances around the league of players coming back too soon, only to have symptoms return. Here’s hoping that Crosby is 100% ready, and not being rushed back in order to give the Penguins a better chance for the Stanley Cup.

  • The Washington Capitals will try Alex Ovechkin on the third line tomorrow, moving him down in an attempt to spread out their offense. Washington has only been able to score more than two goals once in the series, and even had trouble scoring in their first-round matchup with the Toronto Maple Leafs. Despite out-shooting their opponent consistently, the Capitals just can’t seem to find the back of the net. Putting Ovechkin with Lars Eller and Tom Wilson may seem like a desperation move, but perhaps it will spark something in the team as they fight for their playoff lives.
  • The Buffalo Sabres GM search continues, and according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet (via a Chris Nichols transcription on FanRag) they have asked at least one candidate if they would be comfortable with the team installing a President of Hockey Operations after taking the job. As discussed this week, many around the league believe Buffalo should follow the design of teams like the Calgary Flames, who have an experienced GM sitting behind a less-experienced man holding the position. While Buffalo tried this with Pat LaFontaine at one point, disagreements led to the dissolving of the President position and Tim Murray retaining whole control.

Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum

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The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.

Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting  a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:

Forward:    Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard

Defense:    Karlsson, Ceci

Goalie:    Anderson

That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.

In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.

For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.

Ovechkin Takes Hard Hit But Returns In Game 5

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Washington Capitals’ star winger Alex Ovechkin was upended in Game 5 of their series against Toronto by a Nazem Kadri hip check, who was called for tripping on the play. Ovechkin was escorted off the ice and could not put weight on his left leg. The hit can be viewed here, courtesy of NBC. He returned to the game for the second period.

Kadri attempted to lay a hip into Ovechkin as he carried the puck out of his defensive zone along the left board. Kadri succeeding in making contact with Ovechkin, but not before Ovechkin attempted to avoid the brunt of the impact by veering slightly right. The result was Ovechkin being twisted and flipped, in what looked to the officials in real time to be a knee-based trip. On the ensuing powerplay resulting from that penalty, the Capitals scored the opening goal. If the series hinges on such a call, the criticism from Toronto and Canada in general could be deafening. Notably, both Mike Milbury and Keith Jones called the hit legal during the intermission break for NBC.

Ovechkin, who is a notoriously tough, hard-nosed player, is no stranger to physicality. The winger has missed remarkably few  games over the course of his career – he only missed 4 contests in the last 3 seasons. His 33 goals in 2016-17 were his lowest total since 2013 – he had hit the 50-goal mark the previous three. However, coach Barry Trotz has consistently praised Ovechkin’s focus on defensive, all-around play this year, in hopes his change in style would lead to a championship run. Ovechkin has been one of the greatest playoff performers for a Washington team that has consistently struggled to find success in the post-season. His 44 goals in 88 games places him 16th all time in playoff goals per game, with the closest contemporary player on the list being Phil Kessel (at 20th). Considering his Capitals have never made it past the second-round during his career, this statistic is made even more impressive.

Ovechkin surprisingly returned to the game for the second period, in apparent game shape. His return was not anticipated by most analysts, and hockey fans everywhere exhaled a sigh of relief for the health of one of the game’s greatest players. His availability beyond this contest is unknown, but this is the time of year players will play through injuries.

Toby Enstrom And The Expansion Draft

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After the Winnipeg Jets announced yesterday that Toby Enstrom underwent knee surgery and would be out for the rest of the year, it ended what has been a very disappointing season. The former 50-point defenseman had just 14 this year, easily the lowest number of his career. Broken up by a concussion and personal issues, 2016-17 has been one to forget for the 32-year old.

Next season, he’ll head into the last year of his current five-year contract likely passed by Josh Morrissey among Jets’ defenders and perhaps even the newly signed Tucker Poolman as well. His $5.75MM cap hit is hard for the Jets to swallow if he can’t get back to his previous performance, but it’s something else that may cost Winnipeg even more.

Enstrom’s contract includes a no-movement clause, meaning he’ll require automatic protection in the upcoming expansion draft should he not agree to waive it. Dustin Byfuglien also has an NMC, and Jacob Trouba and Tyler Myers clearly need protection. That would force the Jets into the eight skater option, leaving several good players available for Vegas to choose.

Even if they decided to leave the rest of the defenders—losing one of Ben Chiarot, Julian Melchiori or Brenden Kichton wouldn’t cripple the team—that means they only have four slots for forwards. When you check off Mark Scheifele, Blake Wheeler and Bryan Little as obvious choices, you then are left with the group of Mathieu Perreault, Adam Lowry, Marko Dano, Joel Armia and Andrew Copp available with the power to protect just one. Losing any of them without a fight would be painful, given the potential or performance they’ve shown so far.

Getting Enstrom to waive that NMC is crucial, as it would give three more spots to the Jets to keep their young forward group in tact. If he isn’t willing, it won’t be just his declining play that will leave a bad taste in the mouths of the Winnipeg faithful. For a player who has spent his whole career with a single franchise after they took a chance on him in the eighth round, he needs to do just one more thing for them—even if it does put him at risk of having to play in Vegas for a year.

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