Leafs’ Cap Woes Not Yet Fatal
Much has been made by the Toronto media in recent months regarding the team’s future cap situation. Currently, they sit at $3.929 MM over the cap ceiling. That issue is relatively unimportant considering the players that will end up on long-term injured reserve, but the sudden pressure of being “in the red” has started to make analysts nervous about the team’s future. The man source of concern surrounds the three star youngsters, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander, who will all need contracts before 2019-20. The 21 year-old Nylander’s RFA year is 2018-19 so his contract will be the first domino to fall.
Recently, Howard Berger penned an article proposing the necessity of moving on from one of Marner or Nylander due to impending budget restraints, and he ultimately advocated for the movement of the latter. The Toronto Star’s Damien Cox takes a more comprehensive look at the situation, but ultimately comes down with a fatalistic view of the situation – that it can only be rectified by abandoning one of these players in their primes. The author postulates that an approximate “37 percent of Toronto’s payroll” could be sacrificed to just that trio, estimating that the cap will rise only moderately (likely true).
There’s a very solid possibility that Toronto is overvaluing their own players’ worth a tad. There is also the incredible probability that one of the three may have a setback year, at least points-wise, which will bring a contract back down into reasonable territory. Matthews may not even make $10 MM on his first deal, and Marner and Nylander look to be only slightly more valuable collectively contract wise than say, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat. Will the contracts be expensive? Absolutely. But will the three earn $30 MM combined? Not likely.
Ultimately, Toronto has difficult decisions ahead. Cox was correct in his assessment that Toronto is “going for it” now – the Patrick Marleau and depth player signings confirm that the team wants to compete in the short-term. But the long-term prospects probably don’t include sacrificing any of these players. With a combined cap devotion of slightly above 30%, the situation is entirely manageable. The go-to example for star-power, of course, should be the Pittsburgh Penguins who have successfully shuffled accessory pieces out as they begin to become overpaid. Their big three – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang account for $25.45 MM of the team’s salary, a solid 34.8% of the allowable cap last season. Toronto fans shouldn’t start hitting the panic button, and internally the course ahead financially is likely already plotted. The team will need to find players on cheap contracts and hunt for bargains, while moving out older expensive pieces as the core group matures. Adding Marleau for a third season also wasn’t particularly helpful as 2019-20 will be the tightest fit. That said, Marner and Nylander shouldn’t start packing their bags just yet.
Kevin Klein Retires From NHL
After a report surfaced last month that Kevin Klein was considering retirement, the New York Rangers have announced the defenseman will indeed hang up his skates and retire at the age of 32. Klein played just 60 games last year while battling through a back injury.
Klein began his career with the Nashville Predators and played for nearly a decade there before being traded to the Rangers for Michael Del Zotto. While Del Zotto spent just half a season with the Predators before heading to Philadelphia, Klein would remain in New York and turn into one of their most important defensive pieces. Scoring 52 points over two seasons from 2014-16, Klein was one of the most clutch performers for the team during that time with eight game winning goals including several in overtime.
He’ll finish his NHL career with 154 points in 627 games, while playing in 73 playoff contests without ever hoisting the Stanley Cup. His retirement may actually help the Rangers though, as his $2.9MM cap hit will come off the books immediately. With Mika Zibanejad still to sign, the Rangers were going to be very tight to the salary cap for the upcoming season. Klein is leaving with just one year remaining on his current contract.
RFAs Headed For Payday In Arbitration
As the list of the players who have filed for arbitration was released earlier today by the NHLPA, a few names stick out as those due a meaningful raise. Arbitration is a tricky process to reliably predict, but it’s a safe bet these names will see their cap hit rise substantially.
Brian Dumoulin – D – Pittsburgh Penguins
There was a time when the young Dumoulin was a well-kept secret in the league, overshadowed by the far flashier play of Kris Letang. Dumoulin’s accolades this last playoff year certainly didn’t go unnoticed, and as the lone defensive defenseman in their core group, he probably holds the greatest job security on the team’s blueline. He doesn’t put up points – only one goal in the last two seasons, but he blocks shots and drives possession while eating a ton of minutes against top competition. As analytics are utilized more and more, his case only gets stronger. A contract well over $4 MM is certainly looking possible.
Colton Parayko – D – St. Louis Blues
This is the name seen most commonly associated with offer-sheets this summer, and with good reason. Parayko plays with the mentality of an old-time defenseman, but he can skate quite well for a large (6’6) man. He’s only had two seasons in the NHL, but he’s impressed since he first took the ice. Again, he isn’t a massive offensive force (he scored 3 goals last season), but he’s already averaging over 21 minutes a night with near equal starts in both the offensive and defensive zone. He’ll be hurt by the quantifiable stats factor, but he’s a big body with a rare right-handed shot to boot. This contract could look relatively cheap compared to his next, if he continues along this course. He should cost around $5.5 MM.
Ondrej Palat – F – Tampa Bay Lightning
Others will look to the undersized center Tyler Johnson as most likely to get a payday. But don’t over look Palat’s consistency – it may give him an edge with arbiters. Johnson does have his 72 point campaign to lean on, but that was now two full seasons ago. The fact that both players couldn’t break 20 goals in the last two seasons will bring their prices back down to Earth. Palat has grown into his role on the team and back-checks with a ferocity not often seen in younger stars. Johnson is no slouch either – they’ve both accumulated Selke votes over the years. These are two pivotal pieces of the Lightning, and their upcoming contracts were a big reason Jonathan Drouin was traded away to Montreal. GM Steve Yzerman will happily lock both up, but he will be hoping for figures under the $6 MM mark.
Viktor Arvidsson – F – Nashville Predators
This would have been an unlikely name on such a list even last December, when you consider how truly meteoric Arvidsson’s rise was. His value in arbitration will be deeply interesting – the shifty winger has played himself into the core of the team within a season. He really only has 2016-17 and the long playoff run to hang his hat on, as he scored only 16 points through 56 games in 2015-16. This year was a remarkable offensive explosion, with 30 goals and 31 assists. At only 5’9, Arvidsson has really shocked many onlookers by how easily he’s adapted to the physicality of the NHL game. His talent has never been in question, and with his production now well-established, it’s safe to believe he’s going to get a cushy award. How bad the damage will be is going to affect Nashville’s cap going forward – I suspect over $5 MM, but there are few comparables.
Mikael Granlund – F – Minnesota Wild
Granlund is perhaps slightly more enticing league wide than fellow Wild RFA Nino Niederreiter. He’s a marginally more cerebral player, and he plays the valuable center position. Neiderreiter is the more natural goal-scorer and larger frame, but Granlund has better PPG and has broken 30 assists thrice. Both players will get paid, as they both broke 25 goals last season and will be important pieces in the State of Hockey for some time. I think the more interesting thing to watch here is whether the Wild play it safe with Granlund and take a one year deal, or attempt to lock him up for longer. This was the first season he really scored with any consistency, but the Wild have shown their faith in the player by continually giving him over 17 minutes of icetime even when he struggled to produce. A one-year would easily command over $5 MM, whereas a longer deal could bring cost down.
Montreal Canadiens Sign Alex Galchenyuk To Three-Year Deal
Despite filing for arbitration earlier today, Alex Galchenyuk has reached a contract with the Montreal Canadiens. The deal will pay him $4.9MM per season for the next three years, taking him to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2020. According Renaud Lavoie of TVA, the contract does not include a no-movement deal or any additional clauses. This deal buys Montreal one year of service past when Galchenyuk would otherwise have become unrestricted.
Galchenyuk has had trouble finding his role in Montreal, being shifted from wing to center and back again. There was the growing sense that Galchenyuk may have been on the outs, but with the loss Alexander Radulov his signing became a necessity. The Canadiens have been hunting for a number one center for what seems like eons, and the organization must now hope Galchenyuk will round out his game sufficiently and grow into that position. With this contract, the team receives a very productive player at a significant discount, with the extra year providing the team cap relief if he progresses.
Galchenyuk struggled with injuries as well as the aforementioned coaching decisions last year, losing 21 games to a lower body injury. He wasn’t on pace to match the 30 goals of 2015-16, but at only 23 years old, Galchenyuk still has time to develop as an NHL player. Montreal media and management were particularly down on the flashy, creative forward when he went long stretches with few points. He will likely never be a top-tier defensive forward, but he should become more capable in the other two zones under the proper direction. This contract seemingly will put a halt to the trade rumors swirling around the talented playmaker. GM Marc Bergevin had reportedly been seeking a solid hockey trade for Galchenyuk for months.
When you look at Galchenyuk’s career production, he’s very clearly an upper-echelon center, though whether he is a first or second line player is debatable. He’s averaged a .60 PPG through his career, but if we look at his 2015-16 season as a more accurate representation of his abilities, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see him hitting 60 points nearly every year.
Galchenyuk’s contract brings the team to $65.84 MM against the cap with 13 forwards, 7 defensemen, and 2 goalies signed. The organization only has goalie prospect Charlie Lindgren (an RFA) left to sign, though they may dip into the sparse free agent pool for another depth player.
Minor Moves: Boyd, Aho, Driedger, Payne
While the league reels from the whopping Connor McDavid extension, that will see the reigning MVP earn a league-high $12.5MM per season, other teams have made some much more minor moves to improve their team. Here are some smaller transactions that took place today:
- The Washington Capitals have avoided arbitration with one of their restricted free agents, signing Travis Boyd to a one-year two-way contract that will pay him $650K in the NHL. Boyd scored 63 points at the AHL level and could have a chance to make his NHL debut this season. That leaves the Capitals with just Philipp Grubauer as an arbitration eligible RFA.
- The New York Islanders have signed Sebastian Aho—no not that Sebastian Aho—to a three-year entry-level contract. This 21-year old defenseman was selected in the fifth round of this year’s draft after being passed over several times. Aho broke out in Sweden last season, and will compete for a job at the AHL level this season.
- Ottawa has signed Chris Driedger to a one-year two-way deal that will pay him $735K in the NHL. Driedger was a restricted free agent, and with the departure of Matt O’Connor (who signed with the Nashville Predators after not receiving a qualifying offer) will likely be joined by Andrew Hammond in the AHL next season.
- The Buffalo Sabres have hired Davis Payne as an associate coach, coming aboard to join Phil Housley on a revamped staff. Payne is the former head coach of the St. Louis Blues and most recently an assistant with the LA Kings. He was let go along with Darryl Sutter and the rest of the Kings’ coaching staff, but will join Housley in trying to turn around the Sabres next season.
2017 Arbitration Tracker
The deadline to file for player-elected salary arbitration comes in at 4pm this Wednesday, July 5th, while the next day brings the deadline for team-elected filings. To understand the entire arbitration process, make sure you read Mike Furlano’s Capology 101 posts on the process (part 1, part 2).
Below, you can find a complete list of arbitration eligible players broken down by team, and their decisions as they come in. Refresh this page often as new information will be added as it comes in.
Arbitration Deadline Quickly Approaching
With the heavy lifting of free agency now over, most teams in the NHL will turn their attention to their own restricted free agents and the upcoming deadlines for salary arbitration. Tomorrow, July 5th, is the deadline for player-elected arbitration while teams get until Thursday, July 6th to notify of team-elected arbitration. Those terms may sound similar, but they come with a few key differences.
A team is only allowed to take two players to team-elected arbitration each season, and each player only once in his career. That means, if a team—any team, not only the one he’s currently with—has elected salary arbitration in the past, they may not do so again with that player. Last year, the only club-elected filing was with Petr Mrazek, who ended up signing a two-year deal with the team before his hearing. That won’t change the fact that no team can elect to take him to arbitration again, as the filing is all that counts. 
The opposite side has the decision on whether the resulting contract will be a one-year or two-year, and in certain situations the club has “walk away” rights. If the arbitration award is more than ~$4.0MM (this number changes with the average league salary, and has yet to be set for this arbitration season) the team can decline one year of the contract, meaning if they’d selected a one-year deal the player would become an unrestricted free agent.
For a full breakdown of how the arbitration process works, make sure to check out our own Mike Furlano’s fantastic Capology 101 series from last year. The arbitration sections can be found here and here.
As for potential arbitration cases, it’s important to note that not all restricted free agents are eligible. Leon Draisaitl, and David Pastrnak among many others are still too early in their careers to elect arbitration, making any potential deal come down to their negotiations with the team. The Capology pieces have all the details on how it is determined, but some of the biggest names that are eligible are:
Mikael Granlund – 81 GP, 26 G, 43 A, 69 P
Granlund and fellow Minnesota Wild forward Nino Niederreiter—who has actually already filed according to Michael Russo of the Star Tribune—are both eligible for arbitration, and have some of the strongest cases in the group. Coming off his third straight 40+ point season, and a $3MM contract, should the Wild and Granlund not be able to reach a deal before his hearing he would be in line for a big raise.
Ryan Johansen – 82 GP, 14 G, 47 A, 61 P
There has already been reports of Johansen asking for an $8.5MM per year contract, which would make him one of the highest-paid centers in the league. Though his arbitration amount wouldn’t be that high, he has quite the case as one of the premiere up-and-coming talents in the league.
Alex Galchenyuk – 61 GP, 17 G, 27 A, 44 P
One of the most talked about RFAs in the league, Galchenyuk has simultaneously been the talk of much trade speculation and contract negotiation. The Canadiens are in active discussions with him, but if something can’t get done an arbitration date could settle the debate for them.
As with any year, most of the free agents that file for salary arbitration will sign a contract before a hearing ever happens. But with such a strong group of RFAs this year, we might be in for some interesting decisions as the time ticks down. After filing, the league will set hearing dates that should fall between July 20th and August 4th.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Kings Looking To Shift Course
After missing the playoffs two seasons in a row, the L.A. Kings have fallen pretty hard from grace. After winning the cup twice in three years, it’s been one bad story after another for the team from Hollywood. Dustin Brown was stripped of the captaincy and relegated to bottom-six duties, not long after former key contributor Mike Richards found himself terminated due to a combination of on-ice, off-ice, and salary issues. Matt Greene had to be bought out entirely. Marian Gaborik is 35, signed for four more seasons, and just put together two underwhelming performances back-t0-back. The defense has gotten more top-heavy, and after losing Brayden McNabb to Vegas in the expansion draft, is set to lose another valuable piece. The head coach who earned the franchise its two rings was fired and a re-tread coach from Philadelphia will get his opportunity in 2017-18.
In an article with the L.A. Times written by Helene Elliotts, GM Rob Blake details the change in philosophy the Kings will need to adopt if they are going to find success in the near future. Ultimately, he wants to predicate the team’s identity more on speed, while staying true to their defensive style. Los Angeles has played a heavy, physical, stifling game to get their championships, and it appears that Blake is shifting away from that mantra next season. He isolated the “core” of the team as Anze Kopitar, Tanner Pearson, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffoli, Drew Doughty, Jake Muzzin, and Jonathan Quick. It might be drawn from his sentiment thatt other, more expendable pieces that may be available if the Kings continue to merely tread water.
Los Angeles did make a decent bargain-bin signing in Mike Cammalleri, who was sunk by a capsized New Jersey Devils squad last season. The potential for him to rebound and be productive is quite high, but it may not be nearly enough. The Kings beat out only Philadelphia, Colorado, New Jersey and Vancouver in terms of fewest goals scored. Carter and Pearson were the only twenty-goal scorers on the team. Guaranteed offense is an absolute need, and although former coach Darryl Sutter‘s systems were a component of the struggles, the team needs more reliable production. Their defense is still the team’s greatest organizational strength, but it does strike some as odd that a player like McNabb wasn’t shuffled elsewhere for scoring help rather than being sacrificed for nothing to expansion.
If the Kings decide at this late stage to go the free agency route, their options are solid if a bit older. If speed is the determinant factor, that may seem to rule out the likes of Jaromir Jagr and Jarome Iginla, while leaving the possibility of a Thomas Vanek signing open. More likely, however, the Blake and the Kings will need to probe the trade market. From there, the team will likely need to surrender future assets if they hope to receive solid scoring in a returning package. The team could take a lot of offensive pressure off of Kopitar (who himself is more of a two-way player) if they could swing a trade for a solid center. Matt Duchene is likely out of their price range, and Alex Galchenyuk‘s value just skyrocketed. The bottom-six wingers are dreadfully lacking in experience, so an upgrade to the third line couldn’t hurt. Cap space is tight, however, as the team will only have over $5.5 MM after re-signing RFAs Nick Shore and Kevin Gravel. It may take outside-the-box thinking to bring the Kings back into contender status, but Blake seems primed to make moves, albeit on his own timeline.
Morning Notes: Lefebvre, Stalberg, Toronto
The Montreal Canadiens have hired Sylvain Lefebvre as the first coach of the Laval Rocket, their new AHL affiliate. It’s not much of a change, as Lefebvre has been the coach of Montreal’s affiliate for the past five years, in both Hamilton and St. John’s. He took the IceCaps to the playoffs last season for the first time in his coaching career, but was knocked out in the first round.
Lefebvre had a long NHL career with several clubs, suiting up for 945 games and scoring 184 points. He once hoisted the Stanley Cup as a member of the Colorado Avalanche, and recorded 18 points in 129 career playoff games. The Canadiens also named Larry Carriere as General Manager of the club, in addition to his responsibilities as assistant GM of Montreal.
- Swiss Hockey News is reporting that there is NLA interest in Ottawa Senators free agent Viktor Stalberg, though it’s not clear if it is mutual. Stalberg has spent time in the SHL and KHL, and likely has interest from around the NHL as a depth option. We ranked Stalberg #45 on our list of the Top 50 Free Agents, expecting him to sign a one-year deal worth $900K. If the Swiss league is offering more than that, perhaps he will bolt for greener pastures.
- David Alter of The Athletic examines the RFA cases of Maple Leafs forwards Connor Brown and Zach Hyman, explaining that both get high marks from Toronto management. With contract extensions due in the next year for William Nylander, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, the Maple Leafs have to be very careful with how they spend their money, especially on their fringe depth. While Hyman and Brown look to be excellent pieces for Toronto, they may be similar to the players Pittsburgh and Chicago have had to watch move on over the years after handing out multiple top contracts.
Girardi Drawing Interest After Buy-Out
Although he was just bought out by the New York Rangers due to meager performance relative to his pay, multiple NHL teams have shown interest in signing the 33 year-old. Detroit, who is supposedly in the middle of a rebuild, seem compelled to inquire, according to The Athletic’s Craig Custance. The Grand Rapids Griffins championship run will provide an infusion of youth who have won at the professional level, and yet the defense remains a primary concern for GM Ken Holland. Missing the playoffs for multiple seasons may not be palatable to an organization so accustomed to success. It’s uncertain as to where Girardi would slot if he did sign in Detroit. The Wings have 7 defenseman on the roster (when you include RFA Xavier Ouellet), and 4 of those have no-trade clauses.
Also heavily rumored are the Tampa Bay Lightning. Elliotte Friedman stated that the team reached out to the defender, and that it is unknown how that conversation went. Newsday’s Steve Zipay made the connection to current Bolt Ryan Callahan, himself an ex-New York Ranger, with whom Girardi has close ties. Tampa GM Steve Yzerman does seem to like the old-school defensemen, and the team does have only 4 blueliners under contract while they negotiate terms with Slater Koekkoek. The team was already linked to Kevin Shattenkirk via the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith, and players such Brendan Smith and Karl Alzner could find a decent fit on a second pairing. There are certainly more marquee names available out there, but perhaps the prices will become too steep for Yzerman’s liking. Girardi would almost certainly come cheap, and Tampa seems destined to make a push in the Atlantic after a down season – so it’s not an undesirable location.
The market that has surfaced for Girardi is quite remarkable considering his circumstances. Girardi has had three consecutive poor possession seasons which crescendo-ed this year with an 8th-worst Corsi 5-0n-5 finish among all defenders. In a league which is heading in the direction of deeper, more encompassing analytics, Girardi seems to buck every trend out there. He is probably still an NHL defender, but his immobile brand of defense is losing effectiveness fast and his shot-blocking may be beginning to take a toll on his body. His skating is sub-par and his offensive capabilities are very limited. He’s a good penalty killer, but at even strength is generally a net-negative regardless of how sheltered his minutes are. Still, as a veteran on a cheap contract, he might be worth a flier to regain form on a short-term deal. With such a poor UFA offering, it seems he has some value left and should be able to find a new contract with little pain.