West Notes: Blackhawks, Karlsson, Canucks
The Blackhawks have expressed an interest in moving up from the eighth spot in Friday’s NHL Entry Draft, reports Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times. However, GM Stan Bowman admitted that given the uncertainty of who will be picked starting at the number three selection, teams thus far have been hesitant to move down. He also acknowledged that the team is “looking at our options” when it comes to possibly trading the contract of winger Marian Hossa. While his career is over, he isn’t filing his retirement papers yet so he remains on the salary cap. While Chicago can just put him back on LTIR for next season (and beyond), a team looking to stay at the cap floor while spending less in actual dollars may have some interest, similar to what Arizona did a couple of years ago with the additions of Pavel Datsyuk and Dave Bolland.
Elsewhere out West:
- The Golden Knights have not yet started contract discussions with pending RFA center William Karlsson, reports David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The Lady Byng winner is coming off of a career year where he tallied 43 goals and 35 assists; for perspective, his previous career-best in points was 25. Accordingly, he figures to be one of the more fascinating RFA cases in recent memory. Karlsson stated that his preference is to get a long-term deal done this summer.
- If the Canucks decide to move the seventh selection tomorrow night (something they are open to doing), they’re expected to covet a 20-23-year-old player in return, notes Jason Botchford of the Vancouver Province. That player wouldn’t necessarily need to already be established in the NHL but it seems to be clear that they’re targeting that particular age bracket to line up with their younger core. If they decide to keep the pick, GM Jim Benning admitted that he’s leaning towards picking a defenseman.
NHL Announces Lady Byng Trophy Finalists
The Lady Byng Memorial Trophy often doesn’t get the credit it deserves, but in 2018 the high-profile nominees should turn some heads. The three finalists, as voted by the Professional Hockey Writers’ Association, were announced by the league tonight as the Florida Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov, the Vegas Golden Knights’ William Karlsson, and the Buffalo Sabres’ Ryan O’Reilly. Whoever of the three is judged to have “exhibited the best type of sportsmanship and gentlemanly conduct combined with a high standard of playing ability” will take home the hardware at the NHL Awards in June.
In many ways, this Lady Byng race is almost a runner-up competition to the Selke Trophy. All three of Barkov, Karlsson, and O’Reilly could have been a finalist for the best defensive player award this season. Barkov is a two-way wizard, Karlsson led the NHL in plus/minus, and O’Reilly continues to be one of the best face-off specialists of his generation. There was no lack of offense either, as Barkov and Karlsson each set career-highs with 78 points, while O’Reilly notched his fifth-straight season of 55+ points. However, they all have shown an adept ability to avoid penalties as well – a major criteria for the Lady Byng. O’Reilly in particular was a shockingly clean competitor in 2017-18, taking just one two-minute minor penalty in 81 games for an average of just one second worth of penalty minutes per game. This was far and away the most impressive mark on the year. Karlsson played in all 82 games, accumulating only six minor penalties for 12 PIM. Barkov was guilty of just seven minors, a total of 14 minutes in the box, all season.
The gentlemanly conduct is apparent among the finalists, as is the high standard of ability at both ends of the rink. All three played nearly game this season as well, showing the most important ability of all – availability. So what could decide the race? Sportsmanship, which is where O’Reilly’s recent remarks could hurt him. The Sabres center recently went on record as saying that he has lost his love for the game while playing in Buffalo. Compare that attitude to those of Karlsson, arguably the best skater on the team who has been the biggest story in hockey in their inaugural season, and Barkov, who has grown into a leader in Florida and led his team to an unlikely late-season surge, and you can see how O’Reilly could lose some votes. We’ll know for sure how it turns out at the NHL Awards on June 20th in Karlsson’s new home town.
Extension Perception: William Karlsson & Shooting Percentages
The Vegas Golden Knights have been an incredible story for the better part of a year. On March 6th, 2017 the team signed Reid Duke, the first player under contract with the expansion franchise and a symbol for what would transpire in the upcoming months. Duke had been a top pick by the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL, fifth overall in the 2011 bantam draft. He came in with huge expectations for the junior club, only to underwhelm through his first few seasons. He was good, but not great, in those first two years with Lethbridge and fell to the sixth round in the NHL draft.
Minnesota was the team who finally took a chance on him, selecting him 169th overall. That year in junior he would be traded to the Brandon Wheat Kings, where he would again play well, but never come to an agreement on a professional contract with the Wild. Instead, he would head back to junior as an overage free agent, now adrift from the only NHL organization he’d ever been a part of. That feeling is one known by the rest of the Golden Knights squad, after they were left exposed in the expansion draft or sent to Vegas in order to protect a more valuable player.
William Karlsson may be the best example. The Columbus Blue Jackets needed to protect some of their other, more prized players—specifically Josh Anderson, who was left technically unprotected—and ended up trading first and second round picks (and the contract of David Clarkson) to do so. As GM Jarmo Kekalainen said at the time, they did it to “try to keep the core of our team intact.” Karlsson, a good player who had scored 20 and 25 points in his first two NHL seasons was selected by Vegas instead.
If you’ve been following the NHL at all this season, it’s obvious that Karlsson had more to give. He currently ranks only behind Alex Ovechkin in goals with 27, only one fewer than he had scored in his entire North American professional career (NHL and AHL combined) before this season. He sits second on the Golden Knights in points behind only Jonathan Marchessault, eight points ahead of the team’s All-Star forward James Neal.
He also is a restricted free agent this summer.
The Golden Knights have already anointed Marchessault as part of the core moving forward, signing him to a six-year $30MM contract extension at the beginning of the month. The Florida Panthers cast-off is the most dangerous forward on the ice more often than not, and is proving that his 30-goal season in 2016-17 was no fluke. For Karlsson, that question still exists.
There was never an expectation that Karlsson would turn into a potential 40-goal scorer, not even when he was selected 53rd overall by the Anaheim Ducks in 2011. He’d never shown skill like that before, and though if you watch him on a nightly basis you can certainly see where it’s coming from now, there is still some doubt in his ability to replicate this season in the future. Karlsson is shooting a whopping 26.7% this season, which leads Anders Lee by 4% for the league lead. He’s directed just 101 shots on net, the fewest amount by anyone that has scored more than 17 goals. He trails the leaders in that category, Ovechkin and Vladimir Tarasenko, by more than 100.
Karlsson had a 7.7% shooting percentage coming into this season, and though some of the boost could be explained away by playing with some exceptional linemates, his current pace is almost impossible to maintain long-term. Whether that means it will fall back to his career average isn’t a guarantee, but somewhere closer to the league average of around 9% is much more likely. That brings out the question, of what to do in terms of an extension.
The 25-year old Karlsson is earning just $1MM this season, and isn’t scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent until the summer of 2020. That means any extension will be buying out two years of restricted free agency, unlike Marchessault’s deal or a potential contract for Neal, who is also a UFA this summer. That helps keep it low, but there is a way to perhaps keep it even lower if the Golden Knights believe in statistical regression more than Karlsson’s ability to shoot better than everyone else in the league.
Paying long-term for him at this point would likely mean handing him a very expensive extension. After all, he’s among the candidates for the Rocket Richard trophy and will be a key part of the first playoff appearance (and perhaps Presidents Trophy) in franchise history. But if they were to sign him to a shorter bridge deal, while still an obvious raise on his current salary, it would force him to prove once again he can be among the league’s best goal scorers before receiving out any long-term deal. The Golden Knights have to be careful not to overpay for production that isn’t likely to repeat—unless of course they think it will, and that this is the new Karlsson.
The contract negotiations for Karlsson will be one of the most interesting parts of the offseason, as he also has arbitration rights. His case will be one that will show the hand of the Golden Knights in terms of traditional or analytical negotiating, and how hard they’ll work to—if we can borrow a line from Karlsson’s old GM—try to keep the core of their team intact.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vegas Golden Knights
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vegas Golden Knights
Current Cap Hit: $69,375,832 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Alex Tuch (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Shea Theodore (One year remaining, $863K)
Potential Bonuses
Tuch: $425K
While the brand-new franchise is focused on building up a powerhouse team over the next five years, which means draft picks and more draft picks, which will create a revolving door at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, there should be at least one constant who is already locked in for the future in Theodore. The just-turned 22-year-old is considered to be a long-term piece and despite the team’s overwhelming defensive logjam, the hope is Theodore is on the team’s opening day roster. Theodore shined last year during Anaheim’s playoff run when he along with several other defenseman had to step in for injured players and fared well. Theodore, a offensive defenseman, was a first-round pick of the Ducks in 2013 and despite having just nine points in 39 regular season games last year, he put up eight goals in 14 playoff games.
Tuch, a talented forward acquired near the expansion draft in a side deal with the Minnesota Wild, has a chance to immediately make the team out of training camp. The 21-year-old wing was a first-round pick in 2014 and scored 18 goals for the AHL’s Iowa Wild last year.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
F James Neal ($5MM, UFA)
F Mikhail Grabovski ($5MM, UFA)
D Jason Garrison ($4.6MM, UFA)
F David Perron ($3.75MM, UFA)
D Luca Sbisa ($3.6MM, UFA)
D Clayton Stoner ($3.25MM, UFA)
D Brayden McNabb ($1.7MM, UFA)
D Jonathon Merrill ($1.14MM, RFA)
F William Karlsson ($1MM, RFA)
D Colin Miller ($1MM, RFA)
D Deryk Engelland ($1MM, UFA)
G Calvin Pickard ($1MM, RFA)
F Jon Marchessault ($750K, UFA)
F Teemu Pulkkinen ($700K, RFA)
The Golden Knights will be looking to move as many of their players at the trade deadline as they can. Neal should be their biggest trade bait as many teams wouldn’t mind adding a goal-scorer right in time for the playoffs. The 30-year-old wing is coming off a 23-goal season in Nashville and has scored 165 goals in the last six seasons combined. The team hopes that playing on a top line should keep his scoring numbers up high so that his price increases at the perfect time, but a recent report that a wrist injury suffered during the playoffs last year is still affecting Neal and he will miss two to four weeks is concerning. The team also has high hopes it can move Perron. After putting up a career-high 28 goals in 2013-14, he has struggled with injuries but rebounded last year with an 18 goal season. If he can stay healthy and produce similar numbers, he might be worth a mid to late pick.
One key decision the team will have to make is what to do with Marchessault, who is coming off a 30-goal season a year ago in Florida. At $750K, he is a bargain for the next year, but if he can duplicate his numbers from last year, he would be in line for a big payday. Complicating the situation is that Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant is a big fan of the 26-year-old and was the head coach in Florida wlast year when Marchessault started his breakout season.
The team also has a number of restricted free agents who they will likely hold onto. While Pickard’s name is rarely mentioned in Vegas as he is the current backup, don’t be surprised if Pickard is penciled in as the goaltender of the future. The 25-year-old struggled with Colorado last year (although he did have one of the worst teams around him), but was a promising prospect before that. Miller is another who should be retained. The 24-year-old was a promising defender in Boston who was just beginning to get full-time work. He got into 61 games last year and showed quite a bit of promise. Karlsson should get a bottom line spot in the lineup. The 24-year-old is coming off a 25-point season and the team hopes he takes his game up a notch.
While Grabovski likely won’t see the ice ever in Las Vegas (freeing the team of his $5MM cap hit), Garrison is a defender who may prove to have some value if he can produce on one of the team’s top defensive lines. The 32-year-old struggled at times in Tampa Bay and his offensive numbers have declined in the past couple of years. McNabb is considered to be an excellent defender and should provide solid defense for Vegas. He missed a lot of time due to a broken collarbone injury he suffered last October, forcing the 26-year-old in and out of the lineup all season and he eventually lost his starting job at the end of the year, but should get regular minutes with the Golden Knights. Sbisa is another player who should get playing time in hopes the team can move him later this year. The 27-year-old blueliner was a solid defenseman, but few teams were interested in his $3.6MM pricetag.
Penguins’ 3rd-Line Center Options
With the loss of Nick Bonino to Nashville via free agency, the reigning champion Pittsburgh Penguins have a gaping hole down the middle. For the first time in over a decade, the center position is now one of relative weakness. It’s always a possibility that Matt Cullen decides to re-sign for one more year, but he will not be able to carry the load of a typical 3rd-line center. Cullen showed signs of slowing down toward the tail-end of the team’s playoff run, and he was only averaging 13:55 a game through the regular season. At 41 years old, he simply won’t be a viable long-term option. The Penguins likely have high hopes for Zach Aston-Reese to make a push in training camp, but he is an unknown quantity at the NHL level. GM Jim Rutherford had 5 potential trade options in the works prior to July 1st, according to the very reliable Josh Yohe of DKPittsburghSports. Talks either fizzled or were put on the back-burner, but one might imagine the number of available targets is far fewer now. With Dallas’ three-year signing of Radek Faksa, there is one fewer name left for consideration. Vegas seems to be content with merely flipping defensemen from here on in, although names such as Cody Eakin and William Karlsson shouldn’t be thrown out entirely. Erik Haula is likely a pipe-dream, but he’s another possible target. Matt Duchene was linked for a time, but between the high cost and the stubbornness of Colorado GM Joe Sakic to make a move, he seems incredibly unlikely.
Who are the safest bets for an off-season move? Or will Pittsburgh enter the season with someone unproven slotting behind Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?
Bozak has made tons of sense since his name was first mentioned. A lot has been made of his relationship with Phil Kessel. When they played on a line together in Toronto, Kessel saw some of his best career production. More than that however – the Leafs are in a bit of cap pinch as they will look to free up dollars for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the next two seasons. They certainly aren’t in any hurry to drop underneath the ceiling due to LTIR intricacies, but moving out Bozak’s $4.2 MM for this next season would be a forward looking move. If he’s due a raise, it’s likely they’ll lose him for far less, as his contract expires at the end of 2017-18. The move makes sense for Pittsburgh because of the Kessel relationship, but also because he fits the mold of the Pittsburgh squad. He’s a solid skater, sees the ice well, and hustles back into his own zone. His playmaking abilities would be a wonderful fit on the cheap to aid the high-powered offense, and the player would be a positive possession asset to remove the stress from the bigger guns. Bozak does have a modified no-trade clause, but it’s hard to see Pittsburgh being included on his list of non-tradeable teams.
Staal saw a lot of success in Pittsburgh before he was traded away to Carolina at the 2012 draft. Jordan was traded to that team in particular due to his desire to player with his older brother Eric Staal. Seeing as Eric is no longer in the picture, it would make sense that Staal might be open to a Pittsburgh reunion. Staal is one of the better defensive centers in the league, and has been forced to take a more uncomfortably offensive role in Carolina. Staal’s biggest downside is that he isn’t the most agile skater, but he’s not any slower than Nick Bonino was. That said, he can play the shutdown role and be a total nuisance for top opponents. Rutherford loves the player, as he was the GM of Carolina when they initially acquired the player, for a hefty sum of Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and a 1st-round pick (which became Derrick Pouilot). According to Yohe, Staal is apparently open to a return, and the nostalgic element of the team’s fanbase is clamoring for this to happen. Rutherford stated on a local radio segment with Ron Cook that “to his knowledge he (Staal) isn’t available”, but he’s played coy with the media in the past.
Out Of Left-Field
Rutherford has been known to throw the hockey world for a loop with some of his trades. The James Neal–Patric Hornqvist trade shocked just about everyone, and the Phil Kessel trade is still being discussed to this day. If there’s one thing we should expect from him, it’s the unexpected. There are a few lesser options out there for Rutherford to explore, and management may want to have the Conor Sheary and Brian Dumoulin contracts put to paper before making any sort of transaction. It seems unlikely that anything will happen until those deals get done. Rutherford told Jason Mackey of the Post-Gazette that there are “hundreds of names on (his list)”, and that it’s “a patient process”. Could Detroit be willing to move Andreas Athanasiou? Could Bryan Little be pried from Winnipeg for a young defenseman? It’s hard to speculate as to where exactly management have set their sights, but Rutherford is generally willing to overpay to “get his man”. There is the slight likelihood that they enter the season with that hole left unfilled, but it’s hard to imagine. Until more dominoes fall, Rutherford is likely to bide his team and search for the correct deal.
Rumored Vegas Golden Knights Expansion Selections
The Vegas Golden Knights will reveal their expansion selections at tonight’s NHL Awards show, but details have started to come in on who each team will lose. There are many rumors floating around, but these are the most reputable. As with anything, nothing is final until the actual selections are announced tonight. This page will be updated with new information as it comes in.
Here are the latest rumored selections along with their source:
Anaheim Ducks: Clayton Stoner — Bob McKenzie of TSN
Arizona Coyotes:
Boston Bruins: Colin Miller — Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet
Buffalo Sabres: William Carrier — Frank Seravalli of TSN
Calgary Flames: Deryk Engelland — John Shannon of Sportsnet
Carolina Hurricanes:
Chicago Blackhawks: Trevor van Riemsdyk — Frank Seravalli of TSN
Colorado Avalanche:
Columbus Blue Jackets: William Karlsson — Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch
Dallas Stars: Cody Eakin — Jim Toth of TSN
Detroit Red Wings: Tomas Nosek — Craig Custance of The Athletic.
Edmonton Oilers: Griffin Reinhart — John Shannon of Sportsnet
Florida Panthers: Jon Marchessault — Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet
Los Angeles Kings: Brayden McNabb — John Shannon of Sportsnet
Minnesota Wild: Erik Haula — Michael Russo of the Star Tribune
Montreal Canadiens: Alexei Emelin — Eric Engels of Sportsnet
Nashville Predators: James Neal — Bob McKenzie of TSN
New Jersey Devils: Jon Merrill — Frank Seravalli of TSN
New York Islanders: Jean-Francois Berube — Bob McKenzie of TSN
New York Rangers: Oscar Lindberg — Larry Brooks of the New York Post and Frank Seravalli of TSN.
Ottawa Senators: Marc Methot — Pierre LeBrun of TSN
Philadelphia Flyers: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare — Craig Custance of The Athletic
Pittsburgh Penguins: Marc-Andre Fleury – Bob McKenzie of TSN
San Jose Sharks: David Schlemko — Pierre LeBrun of TSN
St. Louis Blues: David Perron — James Mirtle of The Athletic
Tampa Bay Lightning:
Toronto Maple Leafs: Brendan Leipsic — Darren Dreger of TSN
Vancouver Canucks:
Washington Capitals: Nate Schmidt — Pierre LeBrun of TSN
Winnipeg Jets:
Snapshots: Methot, Karlsson, Marchessault
The Ottawa Senators were put in a rough predicament when Dion Phaneuf turned down the team’s request to waive his no-trade clause. The organization is very high on Cody Ceci, and considering the depth of forwards they needed to protect, they were forced to expose Marc Methot. Many mock drafts have the veteran defender headed to Vegas, including our own. Some have even contemplated whether Methot could find himself in a captaincy position in Nevada. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun explains how difficult a decision that was for Pierre Dorion and his staff, and how they tried to trade Phaneuf up until the last minute. Ottawa could theoretically try to bribe Vegas with the #28 pick, but considering that the team only has 4 picks overall, that seems unlikely. The more probable scenario is that Ottawa merely takes the blow and moves on.
- The Blue Jackets truly want to hang onto their youngest talents, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. They are supposedly surrendering their 1st round selection to Vegas in order to keep Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo. What makes nearly no sense is the apparent fact that this deal also warns the Knights off of veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Johnson is an average defender, and with the rise of Zach Werenski and others he doesn’t seem to be a pivotal piece any longer. Vegas will probably choose William Karlsson or Ryan Murray as low-risk claims and run away happy from this deal. The valuation of a first-rounder is probably the lowest in ages, and the anxiety surrounding the protection lists has seemingly reduced their value even further.
- Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel has Jonathan Marchessault headed to Vegas, based on the reports he’s been hearing. Defenders Jason Demers and young forward Reilly Smith are also available as high-value options for the Knights. According to Marchessault himself in an interview on TVA Sports, Tallon wasn’t able to negotiate a protection deal with Vegas. He was certainly being shopped in the lead up to Sunday. The entire Florida protection list was confusing, but Marchessault’s exposure was a truly unforced error by GM Dale Tallon. The 30-goal scorer will almost certainly find a home in Vegas’ top six, and the loss of this quality of player for absolutely nothing is perplexing the entire league. It’s certainly possible Marchessault has a down year after a career one, but asset management was completely blown in this case, and Vegas looks to reap that reward.
Blue Jackets Must Convince Hartnell To Waive NMC
The Columbus Blue Jackets expansion hopes will come down to one key question: Will Scott Hartnell agree to waive his No Movement Clause. At least that’s what Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch writes about their prospects of losing some young talent.
The Blue Jackets are likely to use the seven forwards, three defensemen and a goalie option for their protection list. At forward, it’s expected the team will protect Cam Atkinson, Alexander Wennberg, Brandon Saad, Nick Foligno, Brandon Dubinsky, Boone Jenner and, at the moment, Hartnell.
The team might have to expose several young players with potential in winger Josh Anderson and center William Karlsson. The team especially doesn’t want to lose Anderson, who scored 17 goals in his first full season of NHL action, and at 23 years old is likely to keep improving and give the team a consistent 20-goal scorer for many years.
Karlsson, 24, hasn’t come on as quickly as Anderson with just 15 goals in two full seasons, but the Blue Jackets believe he is capable of putting up big offensive numbers. While the team has made it clear it doesn’t want to lose him, he may end up being expendable with the development of center prospects Pierre-Luc Dubois (the third overall pick in 2016) and Kevin Stenlund (second-round pick in 2015).
No matter what, Hartnell’s NMC will force the team to protect the 35-year-old declining veteran and that could lead to the team exposing one of those prospects. Hartnell still has two more years on his contract at $4.75MM and his numbers keep going south. Since acquiring the veteran in 2014, Hartnell scored 28 goals in his first season with Columbus, 23 seasons in 2015-16 and just 13 goals this past season.
The scribe writes that there are many reasons that Hartnell might not agree to waive his no clause, including his love for the city, that he plans to be married this summer and has stated he’d like to settle down in Columbus. At 35, Hartnell would also like a chance at a Stanley Cup as well, which is more likely to happen in Columbus than in Las Vegas in the next few years.
Hartnell, however, could agree to waive his NMC as it’s unlikely that Las Vegas would opt to take a declining veteran with a large contract and the Blue Jackets’ chances of long-term success might be damaged if Las Vegas takes one of those young players. It’s also possible, Columbus could just buy out Hartnell to avoid losing Anderson.
Portzline also suggests that GM Jarmo Kekalainen and George McPhee might have already worked out an agreement with the Las Vegas Golden Knights to avoid some of those prospects as that is a common practice before expansion drafts.
Blue Jackets Re-Sign William Karlsson
Per Rob Mixer, the Blue Jackets have re-signed center William Karlsson to a 2-year, deal. The cap hit will be $1MM per season according to Cap Friendly.
Karlsson played in 81 games for Columbus during the 2015-16 season, his first full season after joining the team in 2014-15 upon being traded by Anaheim. He had 20 points (9-11) and was a -9. His offensive numbers represented career highs across the board.
Karlsson was originally a second round pick (53rd overall) of the Ducks back in 2011. He will likely battle for a spot on in the Jackets’ bottom six forward group once again for 2016-17.