Western Notes: Realignment, Ellis, Baertschi, Parise, Spurgeon
In a long notebook with many takes, The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek (subscription required) points out that assuming that Seattle does acquire an expansion team that starts in the 2020-21 season, realignment will have to happen as it’s highly unlikely Seattle will end up in the Central Division, which is the division that’s short one team.
Duhatschek suggests the smartest way to fix the divisional problem when/if Seattle gives the NHL a 32nd team, would be to move the Colorado Avalanche to the Pacific Divison and then move both the Calgary Flames and Edmonton Oilers to the Central Division. Geographically, that would make the most sense, although neither Edmonton or Calgary would make a great fit in the Central. One other possibility would be that by 2020-21, the Arizona Coyotes may have decided to move away and relocate. That could also fix the problem, but only time will tell.
- Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis has been practicing with the team and could return within the next couple of weeks. The 26-year-old stud defenseman has been out after knee surgery this summer. Vingan also writes that despite their solid defense, it’s likely the team will have to make a move with Matt Irwin and Anthony Bitetto the most likely candidates to be sent to the Milwaukee Admirals. Since the return of Yannick Weber a week ago, Irwin has been scratched twice, while Bitetto once.
- Patrick Johnston of The Province writes that Vancouver Canucks winger Sven Baertschi, who took a puck to the face during last night’s game against the Calgary Flames, will return home to Vancouver rather than continue with the team on their current roadtrip. While there are no details on the severity of the injury, Johnston said the angle of the shot and its velocity would suggest the injury could be significant as he has already been ruled out for the team’s game against the Winnipeg Jets on Monday. The 25-year-old has struggled lately on offense, but is still third on the team with eight goals this year.
- Sarah McLellan of the Star Tribune tweets that veteran Zach Parise and defenseman Jared Spurgeon are skating and may just be a couple of weeks away from returning to the team. Parise, who underwent back surgery in October, hasn’t played all year. He scored 19 goals and had 42 points last year for the Wild and was counted on to be a key contributor. Spurgeon has been out since Dec. 1 with a groin strain. He has three goals and 12 assists in 23 games this season.
- The Arizona Coyotes will play in their 21st road game of the season tonight when they face the Chicago Blackhawks tonight. The Coyotes will be the first team in NHL history to play 21 road games within the first 66 days of the season, according to NHL.com’s Dave Vest.
- Mike Chambers of the Denver Post tweets that defenseman Erik Johnson is fine after blocking a shot late in Saturday’s game against the Florida Panthers. He is expected to play Monday against the Pittsburgh Penguins.
What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators
As the holiday season approaches, PHR will look at what teams are thankful for as the season nears the quarter point of completion. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We take a look at what’s gone well in the first month and what could improve as the season rolls on. So far we’ve covered ANA, ARZ, BUF, CGY, CAR, CBJ, COL, DET, LAK, NYI, STL, TOR, WSH, and VGK.
Who are the Nashville Predators most thankful for?
David Poile.
Not only did Poile orchestrate trades for P.K. Subban and Ryan Johansen that resulted in a Stanley Cup Finals berth in their first full season with the team, but he has repeatedly locked up assets for reasonable contracts and once again used his trading skills to bring in a key player. Over the past two summers, the Predators had several high profile restricted free agents to sign. Johansen, Filip Forsberg, and Viktor Arvidsson were all without deals but are now locked in for at least five seasons together.
Poile was able to sign the trio to a combined $18.25MM cap hit because of previous deals he’d struck, most notably with Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm. That group is currently earning only a combined $10.25MM, despite each being regarded as potential top-pairing options.
He’s done it again this season, by bringing in Kyle Turris and immediately extending the center for another six seasons without any signing bonuses or trade protection. Turris has played just nine games since coming over from the Ottawa Senators but has fit in perfectly, recording seven points already. Poile has never been one to shy away from long contracts or big trades, and it’s paying off again in the standings this year.
What are the Predators most thankful for?
Improving health.
The end of last year’s playoffs must have been hard to watch for the Predators front office, as Johansen, Kevin Fiala and others went down to freak injuries just as they were approaching the Finals. That injury luck carried into the summer, when doctors told the Predators in September that Ellis could need another six months to rehab his surgically repaired knee. He’d hurt it in those Stanley Cup Finals, but played through pain in Game 6 anyway.
Ellis joined teammates on the ice today for their morning skate, the first time he’d attended a team practice since the surgery according to Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. While it isn’t at all a signal that he’s set to return early, just the fact that he’s “on track” is good news for Predators fans. A return from the 26-year old will be a huge addition for the team, as he is as important as any other defender to the club when fully healthy.
What would the Predators be even more thankful for?
Someone slowing down the St. Louis Blues and Winnipeg Jets.
No matter how well the Predators play, they still are in a division with two teams that look equally dangerous. The Blues and Jets have played just about as well as you could this season, and both sit above Nashville in the standings (not to mention the Dallas Stars and Chicago Blackhawks looming in the shadows). All three teams have some similarities, but the Predators will hope that their experience from last season will take them to the next level this year.
Winnipeg is especially green, but loaded with young talent throughout their roster. With a goaltender who is finally stopping the pucks on a regular basis, they look primed to wrench open their window of success a little early.
St. Louis has been arguably the best team in the NHL right from the start, armed with an incredibly deep forward group and a Norris candidate defenseman. Even with some struggles from Jake Allen recently, the team keeps winning and could be unstoppable if he can find his form once again. The 27-year old goaltender struggled early on last year as well, before going on a Vezina-caliber run through the second half and early playoffs. St. Louis doesn’t look like they’re going away anytime soon.
What should be on the Predators Holiday Wish List?
Another scoring winger.
Despite locking up their core long-term this summer, the Predators actually have a bit of cap space to play with as they head into the months leading up to the trade deadline. Though young forward Fiala has been solid on the powerplay and Turris has added another dimension down the middle, they still rely too heavily on their top three to handle the scoring load. One more forward capable of playing somewhere in the middle-six could push them over the edge.
After already dealing Samuel Girard, Vladislav Kamenev and a second-round pick to obtain Turris, it’s not clear if Poile wants to sacrifice more future assets for help this season. But if a big, scoring winger were to shake loose at the deadline, they’d surely have to take a look.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Poll: Which Defenseman Is Most Likely To Reach Free Agency In 2019?
When Craig Custance of The Athletic told Drew Doughty about the “Superclass” of defensemen scheduled to become unrestricted free agents in 2019—a group that includes the aformentioned Kings’ defender along with Erik Karlsson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ryan McDonagh and Ryan Ellis among others—all he said was “I didn’t know any of that.”
To be sure, even if Doughty didn’t know about the long list, general managers around the league will have noticed long ago. Obviously, many of these players will be re-signed long before free agency even comes close. Each of them is eligible to sign a contract extension on July 1, 2018 and likely will as soon as they’re able. Others though may take some time with their decision. When you’re talking about contracts that could push eight years and $80MM (or even higher), players often want to know exactly where the team will be when the deal starts.
So which of the those five is most likely to make it to free agency? Each have been core players with their respective teams for many years, but each have different situations surrounding them. Ekman-Larson is in the midst of another disappointing season in the desert, while Ellis has been criminally underpaid for several years. Make sure to explain why in the comments below!
Which defenseman is most likely to make it to free agency in 2019?
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Oliver Ekman-Larsson (ARZ) 39% (258)
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Ryan McDonagh (NYR) 18% (118)
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Drew Doughty (LAK) 18% (117)
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Ryan Ellis (NSH) 13% (82)
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Erik Karlsson (OTT) 12% (80)
Total votes: 655
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Western Notes: Sedin, Predators, Gudbranson, Perron
Daniel Sedin has a chance to take the spotlight again for the Vancouver Canucks. At age 37, neither Sedin nor his brother, Henrik Sedin, are the focal points of the team anymore. However, after Daniel Sedin picked up a goal and an assist in Friday’s game against the New Jersey Devils, he now just needs two points to join his brother as the 87th NHL player to reach 1,000 points.
His next opportunity will be Sunday against the New York Rangers, according to Ben Kuzma of The Province. Henrik Sedin already accomplished the feat last season and currently boasts 1,032 points.
“It’s exciting,” said Henrik Sedin. “When it happened to me, I didn’t realize how big a thing it was for myself until it happened. I’m sure it’s going to be the same thing for him. He never talks about it or thinks about it and maybe not until today (Friday). But two points away. When it happens, it’s going to be fun for him.”
- Adam Vingan of the Tennessean hands out first quarter grades for the Nashville Predators, handing out excellent grades to Filip Forsberg and the Predators’ top three defenders in Roman Josi, P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm. He gave Forsberg the MVP award, who has 24 points in 22 games so far this year. He credited the defense for being the backbone of the team and believes that once Ryan Ellis returns from offseason knee surgery in the next few weeks, the team’s defense will be hard to beat. Amongst other notable grades, the scribe hands an incomplete to Nick Bonino who has been hurt for much of the season and hasn’t shown much so far and also hands a below average grade to youngster Pontus Aberg, who many thought could have a breakout year. Instead, he has been a repeated healthy scratch and hasn’t scored a goal yet in 12 games.
- Lyle Richardson of The Hockey News writes that while Vancouver Canucks defenseman Erik Gudbranson has been mentioned in trade rumors often, it might be just as equally possible the Canucks bring him back next year. Gudbranson, who is eligible for unrestricted free agency at the end of the season, could be a quality rental candidate with teams such as Toronto and Florida as possible trade targets. However, Richardson writes that Gudbranson loves playing in the team’s up-tempo style of play, is well liked by Vancouver brass and has shown an interest in re-signing with the Canucks. The real question is whether Vancouver would want to pay his rumored $5-6MM price tag.
- Vegas Golden Knights winger David Perron, who is not playing in tonight’s game against the Arizona Coyotes, did not accompany the team on the road trip down to Phoenix, according to Las Vegas Review-Journal’s Steve Carp. He is receiving treatment on his upper-body injury and remains day-to-day.
NHL Snapshots: Rangers Offense, Ekholm, Sanheim
The New York Rangers’s offense has lived on their power play and their top line of Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Pavel Buchnevich. They have dominated the early season on offense, while the rest of the team is quiet. However, after a 4-2 victory over the Nashville Predators today, it’s quite obvious that a new line is starting to step in Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast and Jimmy Vesey.
The trio haven’t been together too long as Fast has only been back from injury for the last four games. However, they seem to have a connection, according to Steve Zipay of Newsday. Hayes, who scored the game-winner today, has had three goals and an assist in the last five games. Vesey recently picked up his first goal and assist of the season, while Fast scored the first goal in today’s game and has a goal and an assist in four games.
“It’s a real hardworking line,” said coach Alain Vigneault. “Simple, north-south, get it in deep, work the corners, work on the forecheck . . . Kevin, with his size and hockey smarts, fits in real well.”
- Adam Vingan of the Tennessean writes that Mattias Ekholm has really established himself as the leader on defense. Already on a defense with many big names like P.K. Subban, Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, it’s Ekholm who leads the team in even strength ice time at 19:03, which is 75 seconds more than any other player on the team. Combined with special teams play, Ekholm is currently averaging 25:52 of total ice time and after scoring a goal today, has one goal and two assists so far this year. Vingan writes that with more responsibility ever since the team traded away Seth Jones and now an injury to Ellis, Ekholm has thrived.
- Kurt Rohrbeck of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that for the second straight game, Philadelphia Flyers defenseman Travis Sanheim is getting minutes equal to that of a top-four defenseman. Rohrbeck writes that Sanheim’s performance was a mixed bag. Sanheim, who sat out as a healthy scratch often in the first few games of the season, often struggled in the defensive zone, as the scribe points to a moment in the first period in which he allowed Edmonton’s Brad Malone to steal the puck from him and almost score. However, the scribe writes the 21-year-old made up for those rookie mistakes by showing quite a bit of offensive skill, getting off two legitimate shots that could have been scoring chances.
NHL Snapshots: Girard, Flyers Draft, Rosen, Borgman
The Nashville Predators have some defensive issues to worry about with defender Ryan Ellis out for several more months due to knee surgery. However, one issue the team has is a good one as the play of Samuel Girard has impressed everyone. Suddenly, the issue is whether or not to keep him on their roster to start the season.
Girard, a second-round pick in 2016, is just 19 years old, but the gifted offensive defenseman has worked hard to show that he is ready for the NHL now. And with Ellis’ injury, might there be a place for him? The team has used him heavily in the preseason. He has played in all four games, logging more than 20 minutes in each game. According to Adam Vingan of the Tennessean, Girard is making a strong case to stay. His last game on Thursday against the Columbus Blue Jackets with most of their opening-night starters on the ice, Girard played 24:02, second to Roman Josi.
The team is considering keeping him, knowing full well that if they don’t, he’ll return to his junior team and cannot be recalled until after their season is over. The team could also keep him for nine games without burning his first year of his entry-level deal.
- Sam Carchidi of Philly.com writes that the Philadelphia Flyers could get a big break from the St. Louis Blues if their injuries continue to mount. The Flyers, who acquired the Blues 2017 and 2018 first-round picks from St. Louis for Brayden Schenn. They used that 2017 pick on Morgan Frost and were expecting a late first-rounder in next year’s draft. However, with some of the injuries that St. Louis has suffered, it will be Philadelphia that reaps the benefits if the Blues see a drop in the wins column. If it were to turn into a top-10 pick, the Blues would get the pick back. Carchidi writes that would be unlikely, however, as the Blues are still a solid team, but the injuries could improve the chances that their pick will be an even better one.
- Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun writes that at least one of the two Sweedish defensemen pair of Calle Rosen and Andreas Borgman are likely to make the team. Both had key moments in Friday’s preseason game and the two little-known blueliners are starting to make a name for themselves. Rosen, 23, is a gifted skater and passing defenseman, coming over from Sweden for the first time, while Borgman, the 2017 SHL Rookie of the Year, is a more physical defensive player.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Nashville Predators
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Nashville Predators
Current Cap Hit: $68,913,333 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Kevin Fiala (Two years remaining, $863K)
G Juuse Saros (One year remaining, $693K)
Potential Bonuses
Fiala: $500K
Saros: $183K
Total: $683K
A team that is designed for a Stanley Cup run probably shouldn’t have too many players on entry level contracts and the Predators have just the two. Fiala is the team’s top young potential star as the former 2014 first-rounder found himself getting called up to the Predators and logged 54 games last year, scoring 11 goals. He even managed to cement himself in the starting lineup and played in five playoff games, scoring two goals, but then broke his femur and his playoffs were cut short. Nevertheless, the team is expecting a big year from the young wing and some even have him penciled in on the team’s second line. As for Saros, the 22-year-old goalie had a pretty good showing last year, playing in 21 contests (19 starts) and putting up a 2.35 GAA and a .923 save percentage. He should be able to shoulder the load as the backup and right now looks to be Nashville’s goaltender of the future.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Alexei Emelin ($3MM, UFA)
F Scott Hartnell ($1MM, UFA)
F Cody McLeod ($800K, UFA)
D Yannick Weber ($650K, UFA)
D Matt Irwin ($650K, UFA)
D Anthony Bitetto ($613, UFA)
F Miikka Salomaki ($613K, RFA)
The team, already immersed in quality defenders, picked up another veteran defender in Emelin this offseason in a trade with the Vegas Golden Knights, who picked him from the Montreal Canadiens in the expansion draft. A solid veteran, Emelin, should fill in for the injured Ellis until he returns in December and then provide some veteran depth throughout the rest of the season, which should keep Nashville’s defensive corps as strong as it had always been and he will likely be allowed to move on when his contract expires next year.
Hartnell returns to Nashville after 10 years. Originally drafted in the first round by Nashville in 2000, the 35-year-old forward played six years for the Predators before being traded to Philadelphia. He has scored 314 goals, but only managed 13 in his last year in Columbus. The team hopes his presence will spark the team for another Stanley Cup run. The rest, including Weber, Irwin and McLeod
Ryan Ellis Not Expected Back Until January
Big news out of Nashville Predators camp today, as GM David Poile met with the media. Poile explained that defenseman Ryan Ellis would be out four to six months after a knee surgery this summer and isn’t expected back until at least early January. It’s a big blow to a team that is looking to follow up their Stanley Cup Finals appearance with another strong season.
When the Predators went out and acquired Alexei Emelin this offseason many people scratched their heads, wondering why they’d bring in a veteran defender making a hefty salary when they already had four rock solid options on the blueline. Emelin will now come in handy and likely move into that top group, though Matt Irwin and several young prospects could also step into an increased role. Samuel Girard‘s name was immediately all the rage on Twitter, as the 19-year old has shown that returning to junior hockey might be a worthless endeavor when it comes to his development. The second-round pick has put up 74 and 75 points in the last two seasons, but is still extremely undersized and could have trouble adjusting to the NHL.
Either way, losing Ellis hurts as he had turned into one of the best defensemen in the league and was an absolute bargain for the Predators. The 26-year old makes just $2.5MM per season and scored an impressive 16 goals last season, include 11 at even strength. He’s used in all situations, and logged just under 24 minutes a night for the Predators.
Central Notes: Subban, Josi, Ellis, Steen, Fabbri
Proving that defense is the key to a Stanley Cup Finals run, the NHL Network released its list of top 20 defensemen in the NHL and the Nashville Predators were stocked full of them. They had the most blueliners on the list, including P.K. Subban (#6), Roman Josi (#7) and Ryan Ellis (#19).
Subban, coming off his first year with the Predators after being traded from Montreal, had a solid season even though his numbers dropped from his previous three years with the Canadiens. Subban finished with 10 goals and 30 assists for the year, but made the all-star team and proved to be a pest to every team’s top scorers.
Josi’s season was also down from previous years, but his numbers also stood out with 12 goals and 37 assists, giving him three straight years with 49 points or more. Ellis leaped into the spotlight this year as he took his game to another level this year with a career high in goals with 16. He also had 11 power play points, three game-winning goals and led the team with 137 blocked shots.
Of course, Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson was first on the list, but only a couple other teams had more than one player on the top-20 list. With the addition of Kevin Shattenkirk (#15), the New York Rangers had two defensemen on the list with Ryan McDonagh at #17. The Calgary Flames also boasted two blueliners in the top 20, Dougie Hamilton (#16) and Mark Giordano (#18).
- In his final column, the St. Louis Post Dispatch’s Jim Rutherford writes that while the talk is that Alex Steen has regressed over the past couple of years, he believes that the 33-year-old wing has been cast in the wrong role. He believes that Steen’s 33-goal season in 2013-14 was an anomaly and he should not be considered as a 30-goal scorer. If looked at from a 20-goal scoring point of view, Steen’s numbers (33 goals in the last two seasons) make more sense.
- Rutherford in the same piece adds that he does not believe any of the Blues top prospects, Klim Kostin, Jordan Kyrou or Tage Thompson, have much of a chance of breaking with the Blues after training camp. He said Kostin is still recovering from an injury and just moved to the U.S. a couple of months ago. Kyrou is ticketed to go back to his junior team, while Thompson struggled adjusting to the AHL.
- Rutherford adds that Robby Fabbri is expected to be ready for training camp after tearing his ACL. He believes he will start the season off as the team’s center, but if the team is not scoring enough, he could easily see Fabbri forced to move back to the wing position.
Predators To Carry Eight Defenseman In 2017-18
When the Nashville Predators acquired former Montreal Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin at the NHL Draft from the Vegas Golden Knights, who had just selected him in the Expansion Draft days earlier, it was clear that the team would have a logjam on the blue line entering 2017-18. The roster already boasts a top four that can rival any in the league in Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm, and adding yet another prominent name to the mix meant another regular for the Western Conference champs could be pushed out.
Instead, GM David Poile told Adam Vignan of The Tennessean that the Predators will carry eight defenseman, at least to start the year. With Josi, Subban, Ellis, Ekholm, and Emelin locked into regular roles – and making up only a modest $22MM of cap space – the final spot in the starting six will belong to one of Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin, or Anthony Bitetto. Weber and Irwin were the team’s bottom pair for much of the 2016-17 season and each signed an extension during the year, while the younger Bitetto skated in 29 games and helped to make up for the loss of Subban while he was sidelined. There’s no clear choice between the three, but by carrying the entire trio, Poile and coach Peter Laviolette have the flexibility to mix and match until they find the best fit.
Making this decision easier are the cap hits for Weber, Irwin, and Bitetto. Despite being regular contributors to a team that nearly won the Stanley Cup, Weber and Irwin are both journeyman veterans who have had up-and-down careers and thus settled for one-year extensions worth the league minimum of $650K. Bitetto, who had only just completed his first real NHL season in 2016, signed a two-year, 1.225MM contract, which will pay him $612.5K in 2017-18, even less than Weber and Irwin. Thus, the entire trio will cost Nashville under $2MM, making the decision to keep a fourth pair all the more simple. How everything shakes out on the Predators’ blue line remains to be seen, but their eight-man group will surely be the envy of most teams in the NHL this season.