Western Notes: Tippett, Josi, Beaulieu, Simek
The Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland haven’t announced a new coach and while rumors have suggested that the team has settled on Dave Tippett as the team’s new head coach, nothing has been announced.
Postmedia’s Kurt Leavins reiterates that Tippett to Edmonton is a “done deal,” but the timing of the announcement has been the issue. The deal still has to get onto paper and with both the NHL Draft Combine and the Stanley Cup Finals, there is little time to get the announcement out there that the team has a new head coach. Regardless, the scribe writes that Tippett’s appointment will come in the next few days.
- For a second year in a row, the Nashville Predators top priority will be to sign one of their star defensemen to a extension. The team locked up Ryan Ellis to an eight-year, $50MM deal last summer and must do something similar with Roman Josi, who is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Josi, however, has made it clear he wants to stay in Nashville. However, the Predators will have to pay up as The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that they will likely have to give him the biggest contract in team history, which could overtake Ryan Johansen‘s $8MM AAV.
- The Winnipeg Jets have a number of big contracts and potential trades to deal with this offseason, but there are also smaller issues along their roster as well. The team needs to keep their defensive depth, one of the strengths of their roster in recent years, yet they only have five defensemen under contract. The Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe writes that the Jets have indicated that they would like to bring back restricted free agent Nathan Beaulieu, who the team acquired at the trade deadline for a sixth-round pick, as insurance in case they lose Jacob Trouba to a trade. However, in order to offer Beaulieu a qualifying offer, they would have to add 10 percent to his $2.4MM he made last year, which the team is unlikely to do for a bottom-pairing defenseman. The more logical approach, which Winnipeg did last year with Joseph Morrow, would be to not qualify him and then try to sign him for less as an unrestricted free agent.
- The San Jose Sharks got some good news as The Athletic’s David Lombardi (subscription required) writes that defenseman Radim Simek, who has been out since March 12th after having his leg crushed in a collision with Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp and having surgery to repair a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus, has already returned to the ice and is skating again. “The guys who are taking care of me say that my rehab is going really fast, that it’s really unusual to only be two months removed from surgery but back on the ice, skating however I want,” Simek said. Simek, who signed out of the Czech Republic in 2017, played one year in the AHL and made the NHL roster this season, playing in 41 games and making a significant difference before getting injured and hopes to be back for next season.
Long Negotiation With Ryan Ellis Was Watched By Oilers, Maple Leafs
One of the biggest contracts signed this summer in the NHL was an eight-year $50MM extension handed out to Nashville Predators defenseman and associate captain Ryan Ellis. That contract was filed on August 14th, six weeks after Ellis originally became eligible to add some years on to his current situation. A deal for one of their most important players was obviously at the very top of the to-do list for GM David Poile and the rest of the Predators front office, but as Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) details there was a ton of work involved to come to the final agreement. Interestingly, LeBrun mentions the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers specifically when speaking about teams that were keeping a close eye on the Ellis situation, hoping it would deteriorate and he would be put on the trade market.
For the Maple Leafs, it’s easy to see why they would be interested. The Ontario-born Ellis was a superstar in the OHL before heading to Nashville, and his two-way skill from the right side would be a perfect complement to the Maple Leafs left-heavy defense group. With Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner and Travis Dermott locked into the left, if the Maple Leafs are going to improve the blue line—as so many believe they desperately need to do in order to contend—there aren’t many fits better than Ellis available. They would have to try to convince him to sign long-term, but some of the sticking points in Nashville like signing bonuses and trade protection haven’t been off the table so far with young GM Kyle Dubas.
The Oilers might need Ellis even more desperately though, after a wasted season near the bottom of the standings despite Connor McDavid‘s outstanding play. When blue line members like Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson took a step backwards last season it was clear that McDavid couldn’t carry the load all by himself. Edmonton struggles at times to get the puck quickly out of their zone with any sort of control, something that Ellis excels at while also contributing offensively. They too have a need on the right side, and don’t have the cap space to acquire a very expensive asset. Ellis is earning just $2.5MM on the final year of his current contract, as one of the biggest bargains in the league.
That the Maple Leafs and Oilers were interested in Ellis—at least in passing—shouldn’t come as much of a surprise, though it does make the next few months even more interesting. With a player like Erik Karlsson still without an extension in Ottawa, and others like Tyler Myers and Nate Schmidt heading into their final years before free agency, the two teams will likely still be keeping an eye on various situations to see if they can improve.
Alexei Emelin Signs Three-Year Pact With KHL’s Avangard Omsk
Long-time Montreal Canadiens defenseman Alexei Emelin agreed to terms this morning with Avangard Omsk, one day after the KHL team signed Kris Versteeg. The 32-year-old Emelin, who played six years in Montreal and then finished out his contract last year with the Nashville Predators, was having trouble finding work in the NHL, but opted to return to the KHL where he played parts of eight seasons.
Emelin arrived in the NHL at age 25, but almost immediately stepped into the Canadiens’ top-four and averaged close to 20 minutes a night throughout most of his NHL career. However, Montreal opted to expose Emelin and his $4.1MM contract in the expansion draft last year and Vegas took the bait, selecting him and then flipping him to Nashville for a third-round pick in the 2019 draft. The Predators brought the veteran defenseman on board to provide top-four depth while Ryan Ellis sat out for the first three months of the season after undergoing knee surgery. Emelin did that, but saw his minutes decrease significantly once Ellis returned as he was forced into the team’s third-line pairing.
Once a free agent, the 32-year-old struggled finding work as his lack of speed worked against him in a league where teams are looking to get faster. Emelin, however, showed he still has value as he managed to register 181 hits as well as blocking 109 shots last season, suggesting he should continue to fare well in the KHL. While Emelin will join Versteeg, he will also join up with two former Habs as well, including Alexander Perezhogin and David Desharnais.
Ryan Ellis Signs Eight-Year Extension With Nashville Predators
One of the biggest extensions expected this summer has finally dropped, as the Nashville Predators today announced an eight-year, $50MM ($6.25MM AAV) contract extension for Ryan Ellis. The deal will kick in for the 2019-20 season, and keep Ellis in Nashville through the 2026-27 season. Ellis is currently carrying just a $2.5MM cap hit on the final year of his contract. The deal does not include any trade protection, meaning Pekka Rinne remains the only Predators player with a contract that includes a no-move or no-trade clause. GM David Poile released a statement explaining the contract:
Ryan is a huge part of our team on and off the ice and we are happy to have his leadership remain in our locker room for the foreseeable future. We have talked about wanting to keep the core of our team together, and this is another opportunity to help us do so while continuing to compete for a Stanley Cup. Ryan is entering his prime and is one of the reasons why we feel this team has a chance to win every time we step on the ice.
Ellis, 27, was scheduled to be one of the biggest unrestricted free agents on the market next offseason, though there was little doubt something would be worked out with Nashville at some point. The two sides had been open with their mutual interest, and this deal gives both what they were after. For Ellis, it potentially gives him the opportunity to play his entire career in Nashville after the team took a chance on him with the 11th-overall selection in 2009. At the time, undersized defensemen were not as accepted as they are today and it was obvious by some of the names taken ahead of him. Luke Schenn and Jared Cowen both ended up as top-10 picks, mostly for their size and defensive capabilities. Even Victor Hedman (2nd overall) and Oliver Ekman-Larsson (6th overall) are big enough to fulfill the height restrictions, though the offensive upside of both made them such attractive commodities. Ellis, who stands just 5’10”, was seen as a risk even despite his obvious offensive gifts and defensive potential.
That potential has paid off, and though Ellis is still regarded as an excellent offensive player it is his all-around ability that makes him so valuable. Equally capable on the powerplay and penalty kill, the former Windsor Spitfire recorded 32 points in just 44 games in 2017-18 after returning from injury and logged huge minutes for the Predators in the playoffs once again. Though he won’t begin the extension until well after his 28th birthday, he secures the Predators’ blue line as one of the best in the league for years to come.
There was more money to be made, at least on a per-year basis on the open market to be sure. A similarly aged John Carlson just received an eight-year $64MM contract from the Washington Capitals given his proximity to unrestricted free agency, and some would argue that Ellis is an even more effective player. At the very worst he’s in the same range and could have demanded at least $7MM per season, but decided to stick with the Predators long-term and keep contending for the Stanley Cup. Ryan McDonagh too recently received an extension that carries a higher cap hit, in fact according to CapFriendly the closest comparables to the Ellis contract are Cam Fowler, Erik Johnson and Johnny Boychuk. While all three are effective players, Nashville will be happy to keep one of their leaders in the room for a respectable number.
The fact that there is no trade protection shouldn’t come as a surprise, and it also shouldn’t signal that the Predators will look to move Ellis down the road. Poile is staunchly against including no-movement clauses, and has avoided giving them out in other huge extensions for players like Ryan Johansen and Kyle Turris. Ellis will earn a $7MM signing bonus on July 1st, 2019, giving him a good portion of money up front.
The Predators now have their elite four defensemen locked up for the next two years at least, with Roman Josi next on the block for an extension. His contract expires in the summer of 2020, at which point he’ll be 30 years old. Amazingly, Nashville is set up to have more than enough room to give him a heft raise from the $4MM he currently earns, meaning this group could stay together for some time. Mattias Ekholm, now the extremely underpaid member of the group, carries a $3.75MM hit for four more seasons.
This deal does carry some risk, as Ellis could deteriorate or decline in the latter portion of the contract. By then though the salary cap will have inflated and the Predators will likely have already received plenty of excess value. If he struggles to maintain his current play this season though, handing out an extension at this point could look like a huge mistake. There is pressure on the 27-year old defenseman to perform, but he’s never seemed to back away from the spotlight in the past.
Poll: What Kind Of Extension Is Predators’ Ryan Ellis Worth?
With top defensemen getting locked up to big, long-term deals everywhere, one only has to look around the league to see who is next. The most obvious target would be Nashville’s Ryan Ellis, who will be wrapping up the final year of his five-year, $12.5MM deal. Ellis, who is one of the core of Nashville’s talented back end, is one of the most underpaid blueliners in the league at $2.5MM AAV, should be in line for a great extension. After all, many of his defensive teammates are already well-paid, including P.K. Subban ($9MM for four more years), Roman Josi ($4MM for two more years), and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM for four more years).
Nashville claims that locking up the 27 year old is the team’s top priority this offseason. Yet little has happened. However, how much is he worth, asks Adam Vingan of the Tennessean? While two of the most significant extensions went to Los Angeles’ Kings Drew Doughty (eight years, $11MM AAV) and Arizona Coyotes’ Oliver Ekman-Larsson (eight years, $8.25MM AAV), Ellis likely doesn’t fit into that category. Therefore, Vingan writes that Nashville must compare Ellis’ play with several other tiers of defenseman that have recently signed new deals. The most likely comparables for Ellis will come down to the recent contracts signed by Washington Capitals’ John Carlson (eight years, $8MM AAV) and Tampa Bay Lightning’s Ryan McDonagh (eight years, $6.75MM AAV). However is he as good as those two?
The next tier would be contracts handed out a few years ago that could compare, such as Pittsburgh Penguins’ Kris Letang (eight years, $7.25MM AAV), Erik Johnson (seven years, $6MM AAV) and Anaheim Ducks’ Cam Fowler (eight years, $6.5MM AAV). Ellis’ stats are challenging to look when attempting to compare to any of those defensemen. Offensively, he’s never put up 40 points in a season yet, coming close once with 38 points (16 of those were goals). However, after missing the first half of this past season after undergoing knee surgery in the offseason, Ellis’ stats took a jump when he put up 32 points in 44 games, suggesting that his offense is starting to emerge. With his defense never under question, the Predators must come up with a number soon.
So what range should Ellis fall into?
Total votes: 1,093
How much should Nashville defenseman get on his next contract?
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Free Agent Notes: Holden, Ellis, Namestnikov, Wilson
The Vegas Golden Knights already surprised a few when they reached out and stole Paul Stastny away from Western Conference rival Winnipeg. However, the Golden Knights are apparently not done as The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Vegas is the front-runner for unrestricted free agent defenseman Nick Holden.
Holden, who spent time with both the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins last season, would be a solid depth defenseman that could add to Vegas’ core. he averaged 19:00 ATOI between both clubs, but only posted four goals and 17 points on the year. However, the 31-year-old may be starting to show a decline in skills as he was a 34-point player in 2016-17 with the Rangers.
Incidentally, Holden is being pursued by two teams as the Boston Bruins are also vying for the blueliner’s services, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. The Bruins, after all, gave up a third-round pick and low-end prospect Rob O’Gara at the deadline.
- LeBrun also mentions that while Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis, who will be a unrestricted free agent in one year, can sign an extension as of today. However, the scribe writes that Nashville isn’t there yet. They intend to reignite talks with Ellis and his representatives within the next one to two weeks. Nashville wants to keep Ellis in the fold at all costs as the team has put major emphasis on having a dominant four defense. The team already has P.K. Subban ($9MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV) locked up for four years, while Roman Josi ($4MM AAV) is signed for another two years.
- The New York Rangers can breathe easier after the agent for restricted free agent Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Milstein, refuted rumors that the forward was leaving for the KHL. Namestnikov, who was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but saw his playing time drop once he arrived in New York. After averaging 17:30 of ATOI as a Lightning, his playing time dropped to 15:43, along with his offensive production. After potting 20 goals with Tampa Bay, he managed just four points in 19 games with the Rangers. However, Milstein insists the rumors are not true and that Namestnikov believes playing in the NHL is a privilege and honor and an extension is in the works with the New York Rangers.
- Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News reports the Buffalo Sabres are currently working on re-signing winger Scott Wilson. The 26-year-old was picked up in a December trade this last season from the Detroit Red Wings and played a regular role as a bottom-six forward. After not scoring a point in 17 games with Detroit, he tallied six goals and 14 points in 49 games in Buffalo.
Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move
Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson.
All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.
So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?
Karlsson, Doughty, OEL, Ellis, McDonagh: How Many Re-Sign With Their Current Team?
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3 40% (365)
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2 26% (238)
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4 16% (147)
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All 9% (86)
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1 5% (48)
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None 2% (22)
Total votes: 906
Ryan Ellis Open To Contract Extension With Nashville Predators
The Nashville Predators already made it clear this morning that they likely wouldn’t be bringing back Alexei Emelin, and that Scott Hartnell‘s tenure with the team was essentially over. GM David Poile also touched on an upcoming negotiation with defenseman Ryan Ellis, which Adam Vingan examines in a piece for the Tennessean. Ellis has one year left on his current contract, and would be eligible for an extension this summer. He’s very open to signing a new deal with Nashville, as he told Vingan:
I love it here. My fiancée loves it here. If it was my wish, I’d finish my career here. So we’ll see what happens.
Ellis has been one of the most underpaid players in the league the last few seasons, carrying a cap hit of just $2.5MM during his five-year, $12.5MM contract signed in 2014. The 27-year old has developed into one of the best two-way defensemen in the league, and raised to new heights this season when he recorded 32 points in just 44 games. His season was limited by the knee surgery he underwent last summer, but after returning he produced at an incredible rate for the Predators and was back to driving possession while logging more than 23 minutes a night.
Oddly, Ellis’ name hasn’t been mentioned as much as some of the other defensemen scheduled to hit unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. While Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have taken all the headlines, Ellis has flown somewhat under the radar as a potential top pairing defenseman that could be available. That’s likely due to his role on one of the best defensive groups in the NHL, sometimes overshadowed by the flamboyance of P.K. Subban or steady play of Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm. Make no mistake though, if Ellis was to hit the open market he would have dozens of teams knocking down his door to try and sign him.
That should lead to quite the raise if he does re-sign with the Predators, and one that isn’t necessarily a given. The team already has quite a bit of salary tied up in those other defensemen, and with Kyle Turris‘ $36MM extension kicking in next year there is a cap crunch coming in Nashville. While right now Ellis’ low cap hit is one of the reasons that the team can have so much depth, a substantial raise—which could potentially push him into the $6-7MM range—would leave the team with some tough decisions elsewhere on the roster. Josi is scheduled to become a UFA in 2020, while there are already decisions to be made with pending RFA Juuse Saros and incumbent starter Pekka Rinne, who has just one year left on his current contract.
Either way, Predators fans should be pleased that Ellis is already so open about a potential extension. The 11th-overall pick in 2009 has proven any doubters wrong by showing that a relatively undersized defenseman can be successful in his own end, and should be a big part of the team for years to come.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Injury Notes: Parise, Letang, Kadri, Ellis
The Minnesota Wild will welcome Zach Parise back tonight when they take on the Florida Panthers. Parise will be making his season debut after just a one-game conditioning stint with the Iowa Wild, and will attempt to get his season off to a good start against a Panthers team that Minnesota will meet for a second time in six games.
Parise hasn’t played in more than 74 games in a single season since 2011-12, but is still an integral part of the Minnesota forward group. Receiving Selke votes as one of the leagues best defensive forwards six out of the last eight years, and only a few seasons removed from a 33-goal season, the Wild will hope Parise’s presence will kick-start their playoff pursuit. The Wild find themselves in fifth place in the Central Division, but only a single point behind the Anaheim Ducks for the second wildcard spot.
- Kris Letang and Justin Schultz both took their regular spots at practice this morning for the Pittsburgh Penguins, which could indicate their return tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers. For the Penguins, who are still sitting outside a playoff spot (three points back of the New York Islanders), getting Letang and Schultz back would be invaluable. If one or both can quickly return to peak form, the team will once again be one to watch in the Eastern Conference.
- Nazem Kadri will return for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight after suffering what appeared to be a concussion against the Arizona Coyotes. Kadri told reporters today including Kristen Shilton of TSN that it in fact was just a neck injury and that he never did feel any concussion symptoms. His return will allow the Maple Leafs to move Patrick Marleau back to the wing, where he is more accustomed and effective.
- Ryan Ellis was scheduled to return on January 2nd, and it looks like he’ll make that happen. The Nashville Predators defenseman and associate captain will likely play his first game of the season after head coach Peter Laviolette told Adam Vignan of the Tenessean that Ellis was “right there and ready to go.”
Ryan Ellis Expected Back January 2nd
Life is good for the Nashville Predators, who currently lead the Central Division with 46 points in 33 games and are about to get a huge present for Christmas. Ryan Ellis, out all season following knee surgery, is expected to be back in the lineup on January 2nd. That’s according to Predators GM David Poile himself, who told 104.5 The Zone that the defensemen is just working on his confidence after such a long layoff (quote courtesy of Thomas Willis of NHL.com):
The doctor says it’s about confidence now, he’s fully healed. I’m expecting Ryan Ellis will skate the last week of the year and be looking at the first game of 2018 as a time to be back.
Ellis has turned himself into one of the premier defensemen in the league, scoring 16 goals and 38 points last season while being responsible in his own end every night. The 26-year old was named “associate captain” of the Predators in the offseason, after Roman Josi—who was eventually named team captain—suggested Ellis without hesitation for the job. His return will likely feel like that of a huge trade deadline acquisition, especially if he can get back to the level he played at last season.
In the past, the Predators have leaned heavily on their top two pairings to log nearly the whole game and with Ellis’ return they can again. With Alexei Emelin now in the mix they can afford to ease Ellis back in, but it shouldn’t be long until he’s back playing somewhere near the 24 minutes a night he averaged last season. That makes the Nashville defense corps almost unmatched around the league, and will give them another advantage over the rest of the Western Conference. After a turnaround sparked by the acquisition of Kyle Turris, the Predators are a team on the rise and can be considered a legitimate Stanley Cup contender once again.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images