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Custance’s Latest: Projecting Those Most Affected By Flat Cap

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The NHL’s Board of Governors (BOG) are in the midst of two days of meetings designed to cover several important topics before wrapping up today. Chief among them – and of particular interest to team executives as well as fans of the sport – is an early projection of the 2017-18 salary cap ceiling. Commissioner Gary Bettman advised the BOG to expect a modest increase, perhaps as much as $2MM, if any at all. Specifically, Bettman suggested the salary cap may remain flat. Naturally, that may present problems for several teams already close to the cap ceiling while pending free agents might find their respective markets depressed due to fewer clubs being in position to take on big salaries.

Craig Custance of ESPN.com wrote about a few teams and players who stand to be affected the most should the salary cap ceiling remain flat for the 2017-18 campaign. Among those he listed were Artemi Panarin, who will be a RFA coming off his ELC and in line for a massive raise. As we already know, Chicago is tight up against the cap and have already been forced to deal away key contributors due to a lack of cap space – Brandon Saad, Patrick Sharp and Teuvo Teravainen, for instance. They’ll likely have another tough decision to make given the situation.

Tampa Bay and their GM, Steve Yzerman, are two others Custance mentions as being impacted by a flat cap. The Lightning are set to watch Tyler Johnson, Jonathan Drouin and Ondrej Palat become RFAs this summer and with just less than $60MM in cap commitments already on the books for 2017-18, it’s highly unlikely that Yzerman will be able to re-sign all three players.

In addition to those already brought up by Custance, there are several other clubs who will have a difficult time navigating the salary cap if the ceiling remains at or near the $73MM mark. Here are a few of those teams:

  • Los Angeles Kings – The Kings already have just more than $60MM committed to the 2017-18 salary cap with forwards Tanner Pearson and Tyler Toffoli slated to become RFAs next summer. Toffoli tallied career highs in goals (31) and points (58) in 2015-16 and while his scoring out put is down some this year, he could still easily command upwards of $4MM annually on a new contract. Pearson, meanwhile recorded 36 points last year and is on pace for about that same total this season. That could well push his salary north of $3MM next year.
  • New York Rangers – The Blueshirts might be in a bigger bind than the Kings. They have about $63MM tied up in 2017-18 commitments with top-six center Mika Zibanejad and checking forward Jesper Fast, among several others, scheduled to become RFA’s. On top of that, the team will likely be in the market for a blue line upgrade and unless they can find a way to unload one of Dan Girardi or Marc Staal, the Rangers won’t have enough cap space to make an impact addition in free agency.
  • Detroit Red Wings – The Red Wings are projected to have less than $5MM in cap space next season with Thomas Vanek hitting free agency. Additionally, five other players will be RFAs, including Tomas Tatar and Tomas Jurco. It’s hard to imagine the Wings being anything more than a fringe playoff contender next season given their current roster and with virtually no salary cap space available next season, as it’ll be tough for the team to improve through free agency.

Pacific Division Notes: Gudbranson, Mueller

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The Vancouver Canucks finsihed 12 points behind Minnesota for the final playoff berth in the Western Conference in 2015-16 and with many of their best players – Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin, Alex Edler and Ryan Miller – all on the wrong side of 30, many thought it was time for the organization to embrace a full rebuild. Instead Vancouver inked veteran scoring forward Loui Eriksson in free agency and dealt young prospect Jared McCann along with a second-round pick to Florida for experienced defenseman Erik Gudbranson; moves that suggested the front office had every reason of contending in 2016-17. While the team sits just three points out of a playoff berth and with roughly two-thirds of the season remaining, it’s still more likely Vancouver will be a lottery team as opposed to a serious postseason contender. Now, with Gudbranson scheduled to reach restricted free agency next summer and likely in line for a marked raise over his $3.5MM cap hit, Vancouver will have to make a tough decision on what to do with the physical blue liner, as Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes.

As Brough explains, the Canucks have unexpectedly received strong play from rookie Troy Stecher, who has six points in 18 games, and already have Chris Tanev signed long term. Both are right-side defenders, as is Gudbranson, and a strong case can be made that they deserve top-four slots ahead of the former Florida Panther. In that case, Vancouver GM Jim Benning may not want to pay market value for Gudbranson, assuming he would be no more than a third-pair blue liner.

Benning has indicated that his newfound back end depth may allow him to trade a defenseman for a forward:

“We have depth on defense. We’ve rebuilt our defense. (Nikita) Tryamkin is 22 years old, (Troy) Stecher is 22 years old. (Alex) Edler at 30 is our oldest defenseman, so we have a young, good group back there. We have depth back there. So if we look to make a move, we’d have to use some of our depth on the blue line to add a forward.”

Gudbranson’s value is also difficult to project. The analytical community is not a fan, citing his substandard possession numbers – 48.7% career CF% – and his lack of offense. The towering blue liner has tallied just 48 career points in 336 NHL regular season games; good for a per-82-game-average of 11.7. With the league always looking for more offense and team’s prioritizing puck moving capabilities from its blue liners, there may not be as much of a trade market this summer for a player of Gudbranson’s ilk.

However, teams that value intangibles may be willing to overlook the advanced stats. But first, Vancouver has to decide whether they project Gudbranson to be a top-four defender and if not, are they going to be willing to extend the former third overall pick to a contract with an AAV in excess of $4MM or $5MM.

Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:

  • Defenseman Mirco Mueller has been recalled by the San Jose Sharks, according to the official website of their AHL affiliate, the San Jose Barracuda. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News relays that the team’s head coach, Peter DeBoer, has not yet decided whether Mueller will be in the lineup this evening. However, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area believes it is likely the former first-round pick will sit out tonight. Mueller has appeared in 50 NHL games with the Sharks, netting one goal and four points. He has yet to suit up this season for the Sharks. Mueller has six points in 17 games with the Barracuda.

Red Wings Notes: Howard, Athanasiou, Marchenko, Daniels

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Jimmy Howard and Andreas Athanasiou are ready to come back for the Red Wings writes Dana Wakiji. Detroit has been plagued by injury since the onset of the season, and the return of two key players should boost a team starving for more points as they sit outside the final wildcard spot. Howard, Athanasiou, and Alexey Marchenko all returned to full practice but only the latter might be held out of Friday’s game. Getting Athanasiou back, who has a knack for disrupting opposing teams because of his blazing speed, will be a major asset according to bench boss Jeff Blashill:

“He certainly adds an element of speed that’s obviously important in the league, and he can self-create,” Wings coach Jeff Blashill said. “It’s hard to self-create in this league, and he’s one of the guys that can do it. So he brings another guy in our lineup that can do a good job. That said, I think the guys that have been in the lineup have done a good job as well. When Andreas comes back he needs to make sure he’s ready to be an impact player.”

Howard has been a savior in the net for the Wings before he succumbed to a minor groin injury according to the Detroit Free Press’ Helene St. James. St. James adds that Howard is relieved it’s only a two week layoff whereas a groin injury in the past had a longer duration–and saw a dip in his play. Marchenko is close, and if he’s not ready by Friday’s game, he will certainly be slotted into Sunday’s contest. The defenseman has been out with a shoulder injury since November 20.

In other Red Wings news:

  •  Red Wings television play-by-play announcer Ken Daniels’ son Jamie passed away suddenly at the age of 23 Thursday. The Red Wings released a brief statement after learning of the tragic news:

“Both the Red Wings organization and Fox Sports Detroit would like to offer their heartfelt condolences to the Daniels family during this most difficult time.”

 

Snapshots: Golden Knights, Team Czech Republic, All-Time Lists

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The (probably) Golden Knights have hit another snag in their naming saga as the US Trademark office has denied their application due to the similarities to the College of Saint Rose Golden Knights. While this doesn’t seem like a real problem – in a statement given to Alex Prewitt of SI, the Vegas team says that these actions are “not at all unusual” and points out the many duplicate names across professional sports – it is just another public annoyance for a team that likely just wants to start playing hockey. With so much discussion over the name, logo and all the other minutia, the start of the 2017-18 season can’t come soon enough for George McPhee and his team.

  • Corey Pronman of ESPN has a look at the preliminary roster for Team Czech Republic at this year’s World Junior Championship. As the rosters of many of the other teams came out over the past few days, the Czech list was conspicuously missing. Among the highlights, are Red Wings’ prospect Filip Hronek who is off to an unbelievable start with Saginaw, scoring 20 points in 24 games (as a defenseman) and Senators’ prospect Filip Chlapik who ranks in the QMJHL top five in both scoring (44 points) and penalty minutes (58 PIM in 26 games).  The team will be dangerous with several high NHL draft picks on it and will likely be in the mix for a bronze medal at the tournament.
  • The NHL Network published their list of the top-40 goaltenders of all-time and as Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun-Times put it, the list is “uh, interesting, in a lot of ways.”  The list has the regulars at the top – Martin Brodeur, Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, in that order – but gets “interesting” a little further down as they list active goaltenders like Jonathan Quick (#16) and Marc-Andre Fleury (#21) quite high. While obviously these lists are subjective, it does lend credence to the idea that goaltending is better than it ever has been before and is a major reason for the suppressed goal totals. Comparing players across eras will always be difficult, but I can imagine our readers will have a few different takes on the order of this list. Share your thoughts in the comments.

Roster Moves: Noesen, Barberio, Mueller

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The Anaheim Ducks have decided to bring up Stefan Noesen from the San Diego Gulls today as Rickard Rakell missed the morning skate with an upper-body injury. Noesen is a big, angry winger who can contribute at both ends of the ice but has faced injury throughout his young professional career. Selected in the first round in 2011, Noesen has only played in 116 games over the past three and a half seasons but is fully healthy and ready to make an impact at the NHL level. He’s played two games on emergency call-ups in the past, but was held scoreless in each. This year he’s collected 11 points and 28 penalty minutes in 18 AHL contests.

  • Mark Barberio has been sent back to the AHL by the Montreal Canadiens after six games with the big club. The 26-year old defenseman recorded a single assist and four penalty minutes in his time up with the club and will now wait for his next chance. A veteran of 139 NHL games, Barberio hasn’t been able to carve out a spot for himself with the Canadiens since signing as a free agent in 2015. The move likely means that Nathan Beaulieu is ready to come back after taking a puck to the throat two weeks ago.
  • The Canadiens have also sent Charles Hudon down to the AHL. Hudon had been called up earlier this season but suffered a broken sternum in practice on November 25th and was placed on injured reserve. The young forward played in just three games and recorded two assists prior to the injury.
  • While the Canadiens send down a defender, the San Jose Sharks have brought one up. The team recalled Mirco Mueller today though it’s not clear what the corresponding move will be.  The 21-year old Mueller was the Sharks first-round pick in 2013 (#18th overall) and broke in as a youngster in 2014-15 before spending most of last year in the AHL for more seasoning. In 16 AHL contests this year, Mueller has six assists and six penalty minutes. The Swiss-born defender has drawn rave reviews for his calm, safe play in his own end and is expected to develop an offensive game as he matures.
  • In Pittsburgh, the Penguins have sent both Jake Guentzel and Derrick Pouliot to Wilker-Barre/Scranton ahead of their matchup Thursday against the Florida Panthers. As Bill West of TribLive reports, the Penguins didn’t want their young players just sitting on the sideline. While Guentzel and Pouliot have been held out of the lineup for different reasons, they’ve played just six games combined in the NHL this season and at 22-years old can still benefit from the added ice time in the minors. Pouliot, coming back from a lower-body injury had recently completed a conditioning stint with the WBS Penguins and will now likely skate on their top pairing.

Custance’s Latest: Teams Hurt By Cap Recapture Rules

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In the salary cap era, there is nothing worse than a bloated contract, especially one susceptible to the cap recapture rules. ESPN’s Craig Custance listed a number of teams who suffer from such a fate, and explains as such:

For some teams, that pain has arrived. And it could be worse than originally projected because of cap recapture rules since put in place in the new CBA to punish teams if the player retires early or the contract is traded.

“Teams that did those contracts essentially embarrassed Gary [Bettman]. We found a way to circumvent the CBA legally,” said one executive. “He was incensed, and said ’I’m going to get you back.’ Which he did.”

Now because of decisions made years ago, in the name of winning it all or rewarding players who helped make it happen, there are a group of teams that have legacy costs built into their current salary cap structure.

Two teams who managed to stay in good shape contract wise–while contending– are the Boston Bruins and Pittsburgh Penguins, with the Pens not having any legacy costs. But the teams below, according to Custance, are the ones who suffered from the wrath of Bettman.

  • Los Angeles Kings

Dustin Brown, Marian Gaborik, and Matt Greene are the contracts that have the Kings on the hook for awhile. Along with Mike Richards’ cap recapture hit of $1.32MM, the Kings have a legacy cost of $8.545MM. Though they won two Stanley Cups since 2012, the cost may have hurt them in terms of losing Milan Lucic and Justin Williams due to a lack of cap room.

  • Chicago Blackhawks

Sure, they’ve won three Cups since 2010, but the Marian Hossa deal will eventually be a “real headache” since it still has four years left. Further, Custance writes that the Hawks could be in for real trouble by the 2019-20 season when the core of the Hawks, namely Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Brent Seabrook, and Corey Crawford are all into their 30’s and saddling the payroll with a combined $40MM.

  • Detroit Red Wings

General manager Ken Holland anchored the team with a number of long term, and expensive contracts. Custance’s list doesn’t include the new deals that include a 32-year-old Frans Nielsen, Justin Abdelkader, and Darren Helm. Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall, Jonathan Ericsson, Jimmy Howard, and Johan Franzen combine for a legacy cost of $9.34MM. Custance believes the Wings could get out of the Howard contract by trade, but Kronwall and Zetterberg’s deals will cripple the Wings for years to come, especially as their play declines. The legacy cost for Detroit: $9.34MM.

  • Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have a few big contracts, namely the Sedin twins, Alex Burrows, Alexander Edler and Roberto Luongo ($800K retained). Custance notes that while he would take the Sedins on his team any day, their decline is certainly happening.

 

2017 U.S. National Junior Team Preliminary Roster Announced

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With the World Junior Championships just a few weeks away, the USA has announced their preliminary roster for the tournament. The 27 players will be cut down to 23 in time for the first matchup that starts December 26th with a game against Latvia at the Air Canada Center in Toronto. The initial roster is as follows:

F Luke Kunin (MIN, 15th overall 2016)
F Tanner Laczynski (PHI, 169th overall 2016)
F Patrick Harper (NSH, 138th overall 2016)
F Jordan Greenway (MIN, 50th overall 2015)
F Joey Anderson (NJD, 73rd overall 2016)
F Erik Foley (WPG, 78th overall 2015)
F Brock Boeser (VAN, 23rd overall 2015)
F Jeremy Bracco (TOR, 61st overall 2015)
F Colin White (OTT, 21st overall 2015)
F Clayton Keller (ARI, 7th overall 2016)
F Troy Terry (ANA, 148th overall 2015)
F Logan Brown (OTT, 11th overall 2016)
F Kieffer Bellows (NYI, 19th overall 2016)
F Alex DeBrincat (CHI, 39th overall 2016)
F Jack Roslovic (WPG, 25th overall 2015)
F Tage Thompson (STL, 26th overall 2016)

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Metro Division Snapshots: Blue Jackets, Islanders, Berube

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The Columbus Blue Jackets have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises through the quarter point of the campaign. Expected to again be a lottery team after a 27th place finish in 2015-16, Columbus is off to a 14 – 5 – 4 start and their 32 points are good enough to place them in a tie for fifth most in the NHL. The Jackets also rank in the top-ten in goals scored, goals allowed and have the league’s top ranked man advantage unit. Craig Morgan, writing for Fan Rag Sports Network, explores how Columbus has been able to turn things around after an offseason that didn’t yield any major personnel changes.

Morgan spoke with Blue Jackets beat writer Aaron Portzline, who was able to provide his insights into the team. Right off the top Portzline cites three key reasons for Columbus’ early success. First, Sergei Bobrovsky has been healthy and is performing at a high level between the pipes. Second, Alex Wennberg is producing at the level of a top center. Third, rookie blue liner Zach Werenski has shown he wasn’t just ready to play in the NHL, he was ready to be a star in the league.

Among goalies who have played in at least 15 games this season, Bobrovsky ranks 5th in Save % (0.929) and 6th in GAA (2.08). Wennberg, in his third NHL campaign, has 6 goals and 21 points in 23 contests and is tied for 7th in the league in assists. Werenski leads all rookie blue liners in goals (5) and points (16).

In addition to the output of those three key players, young defenseman Seth Jones has also played a vital role in the Blue Jackets unexpectedly strong play. Columbus head coach John Tortorella had this to say about Jones’ impact:

“You can see how he can control the game with the puck. We have a lot of teaching to do with him without the puck, but the God-given ability that he has, it’s at a different level than a lot of other players in this league.”

Whether or not Columbus can maintain this level of play and compete for a playoff berth of course remains to be seen. However, by this point in the campaign, teams that are currently hold a postseason spot have excellent odds of making the playoffs and that should bode well for the Jackets.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • With new ownership now pulling the strings in Brooklyn, there are rumblings that the New York Islanders may be searching for a high level executive to join their front office, according to Arthur Staple of Newsday. The plan is to add a big name and evidently among those who are under consideration are two former NHL’ers with ties to the New York area: former Islander and Ranger Pat LaFontaine and Brad Richards, who retired after last season and spent three seasons with the Blueshirts. Staple adds that another name linked to the potential new role is Pat Brisson, who just so happens to be John Tavares’ agent and was a contender for the Pittsburgh Penguins GM position two years ago. It’s not clear whether the hire, if eventually made, would join the team as team president and work with Islanders GM Garth Snow, or if that person would be charged with reshaping the organization’s front office.
  • Jean-Francois Berube is currently in a tough spot as the Islanders #3 goalie behind Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss. Fearful of losing the 25-year-old net minder on waivers but apparently unwilling to give him any playing time, the Islanders have planted Berube firmly in the press box for much of the last two seasons. Berube has yet to see any action this season at any level and got into just 12 games – seven in the NHL and five in the AHL – in 2015-16. It’s certainly an unusual situation but as Larry Brooks of the New York Post writes, it’s not an entirely unique one. According to Brooks, goaltender Wayne Thomas spent the entire 1974-75 campaign on the roster of the Montreal Canadiens without even dressing as the backup. Berube has at least been on the Isles bench 10 times this season. Thomas would go on to appear in 243 career NHL contests – including a career-high 64 appearances the next season – perhaps providing some hope for Berube, who has all of seven games to his credit. While Brooks’ story is somewhat anecdotal, Berube and his representation have not been amused with the net minder’s lack of usage over the last two seasons. A resolution of some sorts that allows Berube to get on the ice, whether in Brooklyn or another NHL city, is likely best for all parties involved.

Avalanche Lose Erik Johnson For 6 – 8 Weeks

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It appears to be going from bad to worse in Denver as the Colorado Avalanche, already dead last in the league with just 19 points, will now have to manage without their best defenseman for 6 – 8 weeks, writes Rick Sadowski of NHL.com. Erik Johnson suffered a broken fibula during the second period of the team’s 3 – 0 shutout loss to Dallas Saturday night.

Johnson, the top overall draft selection in the 2006 draft, has tallied 11 points in 23 games for the Avalanche this season. He is tied with Tyson Barrie for the scoring lead among the team’s blue line core while his 10 helpers lead the club. Johnson also ranks just behind Barrie in ice time, averaging over 22 minutes per game.

First-year bench boss Jared Bednar had been using the nine-year veteran defender on the team’s top pairing with Fedor Tyutin, according to Sadowski. However Tyutin missed Saturday’s game with a lower-body injury and is questionable to play in the team’s next game.

Avalanche GM Joe Sakic has already been dealing with questions regarding the logic of keeping his core group of players together and now has to address how best to replace his #1 defenseman. With just $1.3MM in available cap space, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to add a significant player via trade, even if one was available this early in the season. It’s possible the team will have to manage with internal options for the time being, further dampening their postseason chances.

It’s possible the team will recall Cody Goloubef from San Antonio of the AHL. Goloubef was acquired last week in a deal with Columbus involving fellow blue liner Ryan Stanton. Like Johnson, Goloubef is a right-handed shot and he also brings 96 games of NHL experience to the table.

Atlantic Division Snapshots: Yzerman, Beleskey, Bjugstad, Bibeau

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The Tampa Bay Lightning entered the 2016-17 campaign as a popular pick to emerge from the Eastern Conference to compete for the Stanley Cup championship. While it’s still relatively early, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is concerned with the team’s inconsistent play, though as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes, that concern is tempered by calm.

Entering tonight’s home contest against Washington, the Lightning boast a record of just 13 – 11 – 1 through their first 25 games and currently reside in fourth place in the Atlantic, seven points behind first place Montreal. If the postseason was to start today, Tampa would be on the outside looking in, one point behind the Capitals for the final wild card spot though Washington has played three fewer games. Despite their standing and the fact the team has lost four in a row, Yzerman is not interested in making a move simply to “shake things up.”

“If there’s an opportunity to make us a better team, I’m certainly willing to explore it. But I like our team. I like the character of our players. We’re very careful of the type of person we bring in and which players we move out. That isn’t going to change.”

The trouble of late, according to Yzerman, has been the team’s lackluster play in their own zone. As Smith notes, Tampa Bay has given up 19 goals over the last four games; a figure which could have been higher if not for the quality play of the team’s net minders.

It’s easy to understand Yzerman’s hesitation to try to solve the team’s problems via the trade market. At this point so few teams have the available salary cap space necessary to make more than minor deals.

If they do decide a deal is in order either at or near the trade deadline, the Lightning do have an appealing asset to market in goaltender Ben Bishop. Bishop, who has been a Vezina Trophy finalist twice in the last three seasons, is in the final year of his contract. With Andrei Vasilevskiy inking a three-year contract extension over the summer and presumably the team’s future starter, the Lightning could move Bishop to address other areas of need.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

  • Matt Beleskey of the Boston Bruins was knocked out of this afternoon’s game against Buffalo after absorbing a heavy hit from Sabres blue liner Taylor Fedun, writes Joe Haggerty of CSNNE. Beleskey suffered the lower-body injury late in the first period and his return was ruled out by the team soon thereafter. The gritty forward was a big-ticket free agent signing in the summer of 2015, inking a five-year, $19MM pact with Boston. This season he has struggled, scoring just two goals in 23 games for the Bruins.
  • Struggling to find their way on the ice and having already relieved head coach Gerard Gallant of his duties, the Florida Panthers, under new bench boss Tom Rowe continue to tinker with the lineup in an effort to find some consistency. With Nick Bjugstad returning recently from injury, the team tried lining him up on the right side, instead of at his customary pivot position, to try to ease him back into the lineup. But after five games – and zero points for the 6-foot-6 center – Bjugstad is moving back to the middle, where Rowe feels he will be “more comfortable,” as Harvey Fialkov writes. Currently two points behind Washington for the second wild card slot in the East, Florida needs to improve their play if they want to qualify for the postseason for the second consecutive campaign and a return to normal production from Bjugstad would be a big help in that regard.
  • Finally, with starting net minder Frederik Andersen battling an undisclosed illness and unable to practice yesterday, the Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled Antoine Bibeau from the AHL on an emergency basis, according to Mike Augello (Twitter link). Elliotte Friedman adds that while Andersen is still expected to play, the team wanted certainty just in case, and with the Leafs in Vancouver to play the Canucks tonight, Toronto acted early as a precaution. Bibeau has yet to make his NHL debut and it appears unlikely he will do so tonight. While he has no big league experience, the 22-year-old goalie has appeared in 87 contests over the last three seasons with the Marlies.

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