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Number Crunching: Shootouts

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The shootout is a subject of much debate in the hockey world. For some, a short skills competition at the end of the game is a fine way to decide who earns the extra point. For others, another few minutes of the new 3-on-3 would be a dream. For other still, ties were never an issue, and they’d be fine with their inclusion once again.

Whichever side of the argument you find yourself, the simple fact is that they are in the NHL right now. Every team has to compete in them throughout the season for those all important extra points.  This season only Dallas has yet to be involved in a shootout, while Philadelphia leads the way with nine games ending in one.

The old adage of “it all evens out in the end” almost proves true, as if you were to remove the shootout and just award both teams with a single point if the game was tied after overtime, not a single team would leapfrog another in the standings. It would, however, bring some teams into a tie (points-wise).

The Maple Leafs, with their awful 1-5 record would be tied with their rival Ottawa Senators, instead of chasing them by two points. They would also pull ahead of the Panthers, a team they’re tied with who have played in eight shootouts so far (second most in the league).

Suddenly the Metropolitan would be even tighter, with Washington and Columbus pulling even at the top. Philadelphia would fall into a tie with the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes for that last wildcard spot however, making things much more interesting.

In the west, where there haven’t been nearly as many shootouts would mostly see the bottom falling out of the standings. Vancouver would drop further back despite their recent run, and Arizona would be in a dog fight with Colorado for the worst team in the NHL; their 4-1 record in shootouts is the best thing about their season thus far.

For individual performances, Thomas Vanek ranks among the best in the league. He’s scored on all three of his attempts this season. Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov and Jakub Voracek all lead with four goals, though it’s taken each of them at least seven attempts. The worst is Nick Cousins, who has failed to score on each of his six attempts, though Kyle Okposo doesn’t fall far behind going 0-5. Despite leading the league in goals, Sidney Crosby is 0-2 this season in the shootout.

For goaltenders, Steve Mason has faced the most shots. He’s stopped 23 of 30 shooters, registering a pretty solid 76.7 save percentage. Braden Holtby has allowed the most, getting scored on an unbelievable 9 out of 14 times. There are six goaltenders who have stopped every shot they’ve faced, though they’ve all faced seven or fewer.  Tuukka Rask is the man to beat having stopped 16 of 19 attempts. Robin Lehner is on the other side, allowing all six shooters he’s faced to score.

It’s an interesting thing, the shootout. Even players who have incredible success during the game find it difficult to score, while others who aren’t expected to be offensive forces find the back of the net with ease. For now, the shootout is a part of the game – winning there may be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

Hawks Notes: Kruger, Roster Spots, Cap Space

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The Chicago Blackhawks took to the ice today to practice before their game against the Minnesota Wild tomorrow night. Among the missing skaters was Marcus Kruger, the injured forward who has been out since December 30th. While the original timetable had him set to return in the next week, head coach Joel Quenneville now says it will likely be longer than that.

Kruger suffered an upper-body injury just before the new year, dealing a big blow to the defensive ability of the Hawks forward group. Kruger was an integral part of their penalty kill, and his departure will weaken it even further – it’s currently ranked 28th in the NHL.

  • While Kruger remains out due to injury, Artem Anisimov looks like he may miss tomorrow’s game because of an illness. He was absent from practice today and is questionable going forward. The team is currently only carrying 12 healthy forwards at the moment including Anisimov, meaning that if he can’t go the team may dress seven defensemen. The team currently has just 21 of 23 roster spots filled, since putting Kruger on injured reserve at the beginning of the year.
  • One of the reasons for this may be the idea that the Blackhawks are “banking” cap space.  Brian Hedger of NHL.com says that’s exactly why they haven’t filled the last two spots. When he asked Quenneville, he told him “business reasons”, which does sound line up with Hedger’s thoughts. If he were to hazard a guess as to when the space would be used, it would be right at the trade deadline. The Hawks do have a little bit of room to make a move for another potential Stanley Cup run, and they currently sit in first place in the Central division.
  • When Hedger talked to Corey Crawford, who was shelled last night by the Washington Capitals, he told him that he doesn’t “feel the best” after missing time due to an appendectomy. While Crawford points out it might not be because of the layoff, he’s determined to battle through it. The netminder is having another fine season and will be one of four players representing the Blackhawks at the all-star game this year.

Central Notes: Kero, Stars Mailbag, Suter

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Despite it providing a short lived lead, Tanner Kero’s goal against the Red Wings last night during the Hawks 4-3 victory showed the youngster is fitting in quite well. The Daily Herald’s John Dietz reports that Kero is making the most of his callup, being a stellar fill-in for the injured Marcus Kruger as a third line center. This coming for a player who wasn’t entirely sure he had what it takes to be an NHL player long ago as a freshman at Michigan Tech. With a young wife and child at home, Kero certainly has the stress of being successful beyond just himself. But wife Taylor Kero looks at it as a day-by-day process, one that requires her husband–and their family–to take what opportunities life provides.

“You definitely have to be flexible. That’s what this lifestyle calls for,” Taylor said. “We just take things day by day. We’re grateful and hope for the best, and hopefully this opportunity lasts a lot longer.”

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Frank Seravalli On Canadian Trade Deadlines

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In his latest column, Frank Seravalli of TSN takes a look at the upcoming trade deadlines for each of the seven Canadian clubs. The entire piece is worth a read as he goes into detail on each team, but here are some highlights.

  • The Montreal Canadiens are looking to acquire a center with size, and Arizona’s Martin Hanzal fits the bill perfectly. Even when injured #1 center Alex Galchenyuk comes back, Seravalli points to the decline of Tomas Plekanec as a concern and says the team must add size down the middle. He also mentions Matt Duchene as a different possibility, though doesn’t expect that to happen during the season.
  • The Edmonton Oilers have been beaten on at least two waiver claims over the past few weeks (and possibly a third just yesterday) for Matt Nieto and Ty Rattie, and are still looking for a right-shooting winger (though Nieto is a lefty) to plug into their third line. A right-hand shot defenseman for the powerplay would be a bonus.
  • The Maple Leafs could dangle either James van Riemsdyk or Kasperi Kapanen in trade, but are more likely to stay the course with both players at least during the season. JVR could still end up with the team long-term, and with Kapanen tearing up the AHL (and being best friends with William Nylander) he looks like a future core piece.
  • Calgary may be in a pretty solid position now that Chad Johnson has taken the reins in net, but they need to shore up their blueline a bit for a real playoff run. A second-pairing player is all they need, but may have trouble parting with what he would cost.
  • In Winnipeg, the team is likely to make minor deals if any at the deadline as they’re content with the development of their club. Seravalli points to Mathieu Perreault as a possible trade chip, as he thinks the team could be at risk of losing him this summer in the expansion draft. Drew Stafford is another name that could be moved out to make room for prospect Kyle Connor.
  • The Ottawa Senators need scoring, and they need it bad. If the Maple Leafs weren’t in the same division, van Riemsdyk would be a likely target but they’ll have to look elsewhere for a new top line left winger. Unless of course Clarke MacArthur can come back close to 100% and add depth to their wings.
  • The Vancouver Canucks remain a mystery to media and fans alike, and Seravalli isn’t sure what to expect from them. A scoring winger is an option to help now and down the road, but an improvement in draft picks is what the team really needs. Even though they may miss the playoffs again, they only own five picks at this summer’s entry draft (rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 7).

Minor Transactions: 1/11/2017

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There has been a flurry of roster transactions so far today with several players recalled from or reassigned to the minor leagues. We’ll keep track of those moves in this post:

  • According to Eric Stephens of The Orange County Register, the Anaheim Ducks recalled forward Stefan Noesen and blue liner Shea Theodore from the San Diego Gulls of the AHL. In a corresponding move, defenseman Brandon Montour was reassigned to the Gulls. Montour made his NHL debut after initially being recalled on December 28th though he failed to register a point in five appearances. Noesen has one goal on the campaign in seven games while Theodore has a goal and five assists in 21 contests this season for Anaheim.
  • Mike Heika of the Dallas Morning News tweeted this morning that Jamie Oleksiak is dealing with a hand injury and will likely be “out for a bit.” He goes on to say that fellow defenseman Stephen Johns will take Oleksiak’s spot in the lineup for tomorrow’s game at home against Detroit. With eight defensemen on the roster – Patrik Nemeth is currently playing for the AHL Texas Stars on a conditioning assignment though remains on Dallas’ official roster – no call-up is expected to be made. In a later tweet, Heika adds that with Texas playing at home, Stars head coach Lindy Ruff would easily be able to bring Nemeth back from his assignment if necessary.
  • After adding forward Derek Grant via waiver claim from Buffalo today, the Nashville Predators reassigned fellow forward Frederick Gaudreau to Milwaukee of the AHL, according to The Tennessean’s Adam Vingan. The 23-year-old rookie has made nine appearances for Nashville this season, the first NHL action of Gaudreau’s career, and has tallied a single assist. In 24 contests with the Milwaukee Admirals, Gaudreau has netted five goals and 14 points. Vingan speculated that Gaudreau’s reassignment might indicate that either James Neal or Colin Wilson could be ready to return to the lineup. Neal was placed on IR retroactive to 1/3 and is currently eligible to be activated. Wilson last played on 1/6.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have recalled blue liner David Warsofsky from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton while reassigning net minder Tristan Jarry to the Baby Pens. Jason Mackey, who covers the club for the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, reported on the moves and added that with Jarry back to the minors, Matt Murray should be ready to at least serve as Marc-Andre Fleury’s back-up for tonight’s game against Washington.
  • Defenseman Slater Koekkoek and goalie Kristers Gudlevskis were both returned to the AHL Syracuse Crunch, Tampa Bay’s top minor league affiliate, tweets Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. Koekkoek’s assignment might seem odd on the surface as the blue liner had appeared in 12 of the last 13 Lightning games. But, as Smith points out, Koekkoek does not need to clear waivers to be sent to the minors while fellow defenders Luke Witkowski and Nikita Nesterov do.
  • The Washington Capitals announced they have sent forwards Paul Carey and Liam O’Brien to Hershey of the AHL, according to the team’s official Twitter account. The assignments leave the team with just 12 forwards on the active roster, a fact that suggests T.J. Oshie will be back in the Caps lineup tonight. That was later confirmed by Capitals head coach Barry Trotz.
  • Two days after sending the fourth overall selection in the June entry draft, Jesse Puljujarvi, to Bakersfield the Edmonton Oilers have assigned fellow forward Anton Lander to the same club. Called up from the Condors was forward Jujhar Khaira, who has eight goals and 18 points in 24 AHL games this season.

Atlantic Division Notes: Gallant, Ryan, Miller, McQuaid

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The Florida Panthers decision to fire head coach Gerard Gallant earlier this season was met with harsh criticism in some circles of the hockey community. It was widely assumed the dismissal was a reflection of the new front office structure’s belief in analytics, something the former player and long time coach may not have been completely on board with,  as opposed to Gallant’s coaching ability. Gallant is known as an old-school coach who values “intangibles” and other traits not ordinarily appreciated by analytically-driven front offices and it was assumed this generated a disconnect between management and the bench boss. However, according to Gallant his termination had little to do with his feelings on analytics and likely had more to do with his stubbornness, as Pierre LeBrun of ESPN wrote recently:

“I wasn’t fired because of analytics,” he continued. “I loved coaching the Florida Panthers and I’m a stubborn guy at times; maybe I said a little too much, maybe I gave my opinion a little bit too much. Maybe when they asked for my opinion, I have an honest opinion and sometimes it doesn’t help you. Maybe it wasn’t always what they wanted to hear. I don’t know where it went from there …”

Gallant, like many coaches, actually did utilize information provided to his staff by the team’s analysts and described analytics as “a tool.”

“For me, analytics is certainly part of coaching, but it’s not the whole thing. In my mind, if I take a job, analytics is part of it for sure, 25 to 30 percent, whatever percentage you want to put on it. It’s definitely a tool. If you get the right information, you’re happy with that. Every coach uses analytics. We all go over the same stuff.”

Of course it should be noted that while Gallant admitted to utilizing analytics, it can be inferred from his comments that it was done to assist with lineup decisions and on-ice strategies, leaving open the possibility that he didn’t necessarily agree with analytically-driven decisions made by the front office with regards to player acquisitions. It’s certainly possible Gallant voiced his displeasure over certain moves the front office made over the summer and that led in part to his dismissal.

Nevertheless, despite how it turned out in Florida, Gallant is respected within the industry and it’s likely he will have his choice of head coaching jobs this summer, assuming he isn’t offered and subsequently accepts a job prior to the offseason.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Division:

  • Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun examines the Senators recent decision to scratch forward Bobby Ryan, and wonders what the “bigger picture” is with the player and Ottawa. Brennan points out that Ryan, a four-time 30-goal scorer, ranks 12th on the team in scoring and theorizes his lack of production may have served as justification for the benching. However, as the scribe points out, Ryan’s ice time, or rather the lack thereof, has likely led to the 29-year-old right winger’s lackluster output. Ryan currently ranks eighth among Senator forwards in overall ATOI (Average Time On Ice) and is seventh on the team in power play ice time. For his career, Ryan has registered just more than one-quarter of his points on the power play but this season has just one goal and three points on the man advantage. Brennan wonders why the Senators, who rank 22nd in the NHL in goals, would not find a way to get one of their most skilled players more ice time. Ultimately, as Brennan writes, the situation is one that bears watching for the rest of the season.
  • The Boston Bruins, and in particular David Backes, were undoubtedly pleased to come away from St. Louis with a 5 – 3 win over the Blues. However the victory didn’t come without cost as the team lost right-shot blue liners Colin Miller and Adam McQuaid to injury during the game. As Jason Brough of Pro Hockey Talk writes, the losses of Miller and McQuaid forced the B’s to finish out the game with just four defenders. After the game, Claude Julien could provide no information other than the two were being evaluated by the team’s medical staff. Today the team announced that Miller is doubtful for tomorrow’s contest in Nashville. If he can’t go the Bruins could insert either John-Michael Liles or Joe Morrow into the lineup with the other available to draw in if McQuaid is ruled out.

The Bobby Ryan Situation

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Bobby Ryan was surprisingly a healthy scratch Saturday night for Ottawa in their 1 – 0 loss to Washington Saturday night. Even though he is having a down season with just seven goals through 32 games, Ryan’s absence was both unexpected and magnified by the Sens inability to find the back of the net against the Capitals. The gifted winger is a six-time 20+ goal scorer and has hit the 30-goal mark four times in his career. Ryan is the team’s highest paid player with an AAV of $7.25MM and is counted on by Ottawa to spearhead their offense.

So why was Ryan scratched last night? According to Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun, Senators head coach Guy Boucher simply stated that Ryan “wasn’t able to play.” The coach added that the two “had an issue to deal with and it’s dealt with.” When asked specifically if it was an issue with discipline, Boucher said, “there’s complex issues that don’t need to be said out here.”

Based on Boucher’s use of the word “complex,” it wouldn’t seem to indicate a one off disciplinary problem. It’s possible the benching has to do with Ryan’s on-ice struggles and mediocre offensive production. Ryan, with 14 points in 32 games, is on an 82-game pace of just 36 points; a figure that would represent the lowest, full-season total of his career not counting the 2012-13 campaign shortened by the lockout.

If that’s the case, one has to wonder if and when Ottawa will consider trying to move on from Ryan. The 29-year-old winger will have five years left to go after this season on his pact and has a NMC and a partial NTC which allows him to submit a 10-team no-trade list. That fact combined with his recently tepid performance would seem to limit the number of teams that would express sincere interest, should Ottawa decide to investigate their options.

It should also be noted that in addition to the hefty contractual commitment, Ottawa invested additional resources by going out this summer and acquiring center Derick Brassard for the express purpose of using the two players together. It was thought that the left-handed pivot would have an easier time of passing the puck to the right-handed Ryan in a better shooting position. While the two have seen extensive five-on-five ice time together, they have yet to click and some of Brassard’s struggles – 17 points in 38 games a year after registering 58 in 80 – might be a result of failing to find chemistry with Ryan. The cost to acquire Brassard was a younger, cheaper and similarly talented center in Mika Zibanejad, along with a second-round draft choice.

It would seem that Ottawa’s best bet is to hang onto Ryan and do what they can to help him realize his potential. Ryan is still young enough to turn things around but is already in his fourth full campaign with Ottawa and has yet to come close to matching his production from 2008-09 through 2011-12 when he was in Anaheim and netted 31 or more goals each season. However, as he enters his 30’s it will become less likely than ever that the Senators will realize full value on their investment.

 

Minor Transactions: 1/8/2016 (Updated)

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With some teams preparing for their mandatory mid-season break, GM’s are trimming their rosters, reassigning waivers-exempt players to the minors to ensure they can continue to play during the off time. Additionally, teams bank additional cap space during the hiatus by moving players off of the big league roster. We’ll monitor all of today’s roster transactions in this post and update throughout the day.

  • (Update) 5:30pm: With T.J. Oshie and Tom Wilson both dealing with injuries and unable to practice today, the Washington Capitals have recalled forward Paul Carey from Hershey of the AHL, reports Tarik El-Bashir of CSN Mid-Atlantic. Both Oshie (upper-body injury) and Wilson (lower-body injury were hurt in the team’s 1 – 0 win over Ottawa last night. Carey has already seen action in three games with Washington but has not registered a point. He currently ranks third in scoring for Hersey with 25 points.
  • The Nashville Predators have placed defenseman Petter Granberg on waivers, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. The 24-year-old Swedish blue liner has appeared in nine games this season for the Predators but has not recorded a point and has averaged just under nine minutes a game. Granberg was originally acquired by Nashville from Toronto via waivers in November of 2015. After failing to make the team in training camp he was waived on the last day of September and after clearing the team assigned him to Milwaukee. Nashville recalled Granberg from the AHL on November 26th. It’ likely he will again clear waivers and remain in the Predators organization.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to do the backup goalie shuffle, again sending Antoine Bibeau to the AHL’s Toronto Marlies and recalling Jhonas Enroth, reports James Mirtle of The Athletic. Bibeau has appeared in just two games, winning one and losing one, while putting up excellent overall numbers – 1.98 GAA and 0.927 Save %. Enroth has posted a record of 0-3-1 in four starts, with a GAA of nearly four. It’s likely the move was made so that Bibeau can stay sharp playing in the minors and he will again be recalled from the Marlies when the Leafs return to action Friday.
  • The Arizona Coyotes assigned Laurent Dauphin, Brendan Perlini and Anthony DeAngelo to Tucson of the AHL, the team announced via their Twitter account. Dauphin has tallied three points in 21 games for Arizona and is averaging 11 minutes per game filling in on the team’s bottom line. Perlini, the team’s first-round pick in 2014, made his NHL debut this season and has appeared in 15 games, scoring four goals and five points. DeAngelo, acquired via trade from Tampa Bay this past summer, has tallied three goals and nine points in 20 games in his first taste of NHL action. Again, it’s likely the assignments were made to ensure the trio continue to play during the break.

5 Key Stories: 1/2/16 – 1/8/16

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Let’s recap the five biggest stories from the week of 1/2/2016 through 1/8/2016:

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets occupy the top spot in the league due in large part to their recent 16-game winning streak. The team had a chance to tie a record set by the 1992-93 Pittsburgh Penguins – a team led by “Super” Mario Lemieux and the ageless Jaromir Jagr – but the Blue Jackets came up short, falling to the Washington Capitals by the score of 5 – 0. Nonetheless, it’s an incredible feat accomplished by the Blue Jackets and an announcement to the rest of the league that they are indeed a team to be taken seriously.
  • It’s been an up-and-down year in Winnipeg, but Jets rookie phenom Patrik Laine has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. The 18-year-old Finn is currently tied for third in the league in goal scoring with 21 and has already established himself as one of the league’s most exciting young stars. Unfortunately, Laine is out indefinitely after suffering a concussion in Winnipeg’s 4 – 3 loss to Buffalo on Saturday.
  • Colorado has certainly been one of the league’s biggest disappointments in 2016-17. An offseason coaching change was expected to spark a talented roster back into playoff contention but instead the Avalanche have been the worst team in the league and at this point are one of the few clubs who can safely be called “seller” in advance of the trade deadline. This of course has led to all kinds of rumors, with the most recent involving Boston. The Bruins reportedly inquired as to the availability Gabriel Landeskog with Colorado asking for rookie blue liner Brandon Carlo in return. While there appears to be no traction in trade discussions between the two teams, that could change closer to the March 1st deadline.
  • It was a busy week on the waiver wire with several players switching teams by virtue of waiver claims. Reid Boucher changed clubs twice going from Nashville to New Jersey and finally on to Vancouver all via waivers. Ty Rattie went from St. Louis to Carolina and San Jose lost Matt Nieto to Colorado.
  • Montreal winger Brendan Gallagher is slated to miss the next eight weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a fractured hand. Gallagher was injured when a shot from teammate Shea Weber struck his hand during a recent game.

Jets Update Laine’s Condition

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Winnipeg Jets head coach Paul Maurice announced today that Patrik Laine did indeed suffer a concussion as a result of a hard hit delivered by Buffalo’s Jake McCabe during the third period of yesterday’s game. Maurice added that there is currently no timetable for the talented rookie winger’s return.

Laine was attempting to receive a pass in the neutral zone when McCabe stepped up and put a body on the 18-year-old Finn. According to Maurice, the two players ended up butting heads during the initial collision. Laine then hit the back of his head on the ice as he fell following the hit. After the game, Maurice said he had “no issue” with the hit.

The second overall pick in the June 2016 draft, Laine is tied for third in the league in goals scored (21) with the player chosen ahead of him, Auston Matthews. He was in the midst of a nice stretch of hockey, tallying two goals and five assists in four games prior to the injury. It’s impossible to overstate how important Laine is to the Jets and with the team struggling to find consistency, losing him for a long period would be a damaging blow to their playoff chances.

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