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Mike Hoffman Asked To Submit No-Trade List

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The Florida Panthers have already traded away Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann in an attempt to clear some salary off their books moving forward, and are at least preparing to do it again if the need arises. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic tweets that Mike Hoffman has been asked to submit his 10-team no-trade list ahead of the deadline, giving the Panthers at least some idea of where he does not want to go. LeBrun is quick to point out that this does not guarantee a trade by Monday’s deadline, but does signify that teams have been expressing interest in the sniper. Hoffman’s contract carries a $5.1875MM average annual value through the 2019-20 season.

Hoffman, 29, is having the best season of his career in Florida with 49 points through his first 58 games. That includes 26 goals, a pace that would push him over the 30-goal threshold for the first time in his career. Possessing a lethal combination of shooting ability and speed, the winger could be added to almost any lineup for an instant offensive injection.

Still, that success that Hoffman has found in Florida is not something the team will be quick to throw away. After the Ottawa Senators were forced to sell Hoffman to the San Jose Sharks following a locker room feud between him and then captain Erik Karlsson, the Panthers snapped him up knowing first hand how dangerous he could be with the puck on his stick.

All that success might not matter though if the Panthers have their sights set on a bigger fish. Several reports have surfaced over the last month that the team will be interested in signing Sergei Bobrovsky and Artemi Panarin should they both reach free agency, and Florida would need to clear salary—not necessarily cap space—in order to do that. The team is not quite a cap team, especially if the ceiling keeps increasing every year. Of course, clearing salary doesn’t immediately mean Hoffman is on his way out. Signing Bobrovsky would also mean the departure of at least one of Roberto Luongo or James Reimer in some fashion, though the former has very little actual salary left on his deal.

If Hoffman was available, you can bet several teams would be interested despite his questionable departure from Ottawa. Those who are less interested in going after the high-end rental options might think that he’s actually more valuable, given that he will be coming back for an additional season at a reasonable price and is still young enough to continue performing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Deadline Primer: Columbus Blue Jackets

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With the trade deadline now less than a week away, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?  As we continue with the Metropolitan Division, here is a look at the Columbus Blue Jackets.

Next to the Ottawa Senators, no team is under more pressure at the 2019 NHL Trade Deadline than the Columbus Blue Jackets. The team has decisions to make on two priority free agents, both of whom appear primed to test the off-season market, in Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky. Despite two major players who they may opt to sell, the Blue Jackets also plan to be net buyers at the deadline, giving them a massive presence on both sides of the trade market.

Believe it or not, Columbus is still in search of their first playoff round win in franchise history. The 2000 expansion team has had bad luck in the postseason, so their moves at the deadline will be made with some consideration for the future, but mostly in taking advantage of the present. While the Blue Jackets are within striking distance of the Washington Capitals for second-place in the Metropolitan Division and home ice advantage in the first round, they also are not a lock for a playoff spot. Columbus is currently tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens in the divisional and wild card races with just one game in hand and are at risk of falling behind the surging Carolina Hurricanes, who are two points back. The team cannot afford to come out of the trade deadline with the same or worse caliber of roster, even if they do trade Panarin or Bobrovsky. Expect some fireworks from the Blue Jackets this week.

Record

33-22-3, third in the Metropolitan Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$28.77MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 47/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: CLB 1st, CLB 3rd, CLB 4th, CLB 7th
2020: CLB 1st, CLB 2nd, CLB 4th, CLB 5th, CLB 6th, CLB 7th

Trade Chips

There is no trade chip on the block right now that is more valuable than superstar winger Artemi Panarin. Panarin, 27, leads the Blue Jackets in scoring by a wide margin with 67 points through 56 games, which is also good enough for a top-20 mark in the NHL. He is currently on pace for a career-high 96 points, which would be his second straight season of scoring at better than a point-per-game pace and would mark four straight years with 70+ points. Panarin is simply one of the most dangerous offensive players in hockey and his addition would be a complete game-changer for any contender. The question is whether or not Columbus chooses to use him as their “own rental” rather than trade him. It has been reported that Blue Jackets GM Jarmo Kekalainen will not trade Panarin if the cost to replace him by adding another forward or two will leave the team with little to show for the initial trade. If Columbus can get through the deadline with replacement forward production and significant future building blocks, Panarin will be traded. If not, he stays put.

The odds of Sergei Bobrovsky moving are less likely than the near 50/50 status of Panarin. Although the all-word goaltender seems more likely to depart Columbus as a free agent than Panarin, he is also near impossible to replace at the deadline. Bobrovsky is one three top rentals in net and the other two – Jimmy Howard and Semyon Varlamov – are not guaranteed to be available. The Blue Jackets are not prepared to move an established starter right before the stretch run and postseason without bringing in a suitable replacement. As such, unless a more long-term target emerges, Bobrovsky is unlikely to be traded despite the hype.

Beyond potentially Panarin and Bobrovsky – ironically the only notable UFA’s in the Blue Jackets organization – Columbus is a buyer, not a seller. However, that doesn’t mean that their current roster is untouchable. If Panarin is moved and the Blue Jackets are pursuing top forwards to replace him, talented but ice-cold forward Alexander Wennberg will surely be dangled. Wennberg, 24, is in the second season of a six-year, $29.4MM contract that he has failed to live up to so far. This season has been worse than last, as he has yet to score an even strength goal all season. Even at a cap hit that has not been reflective of his production, some sellers will certainly be intrigued by the 2013 first-rounder’s ceiling. Another young Blue Jackets forward who could be offered up is Sonny Milano, who continues to see limited NHL action despite good AHL production. Young defenseman Gabriel Carlsson, another under-utilized first-round pick, is also a candidate to be traded.

Among their prospect pool, the Blue Jackets may have a tough time avoiding seller demands for first-year pro forward Vitaly Abramov, who has played well in the AHL this season. Arguably the top prospect in the organization, the slick winger has NHL potential and sellers have surely taken notice. Deeper in the pipeline, Columbus will likely hear calls on Swedes Emil Bemstrom and Jonathan Davidsson as well.

Five Players To Watch For: F Artemi Panarin, F Alexander Wennberg, F Sonny Milano, D Gabriel Carlsson, F Vitaly Abramov

Team Needs

1) Top-Six Forwards: The only difference a potential Panarin trade makes is the caliber and number of the forwards that the Blue Jackets will target. There is a clear need for offensive depth beyond the Blue Jackets’ top line of Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois, and Cam Atkinson, as no other forward has surpassed 30 points on the year. The power play also needs serious help. If Panarin leaves, the team will need to do their best to replace his production on the top line, likely targeting the top wingers on the market like Mark Stone, Gustav Nyquist, or Mike Hoffman. They will probably look for more affordable top-six options after that. If Panarin stays, the team will still look at top forward options like Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, Mats Zuccarello, and Kevin Hayes. Columbus will be in on nearly every big forward name in the coming days and should add one or two before all is said and done.

2) Defensive Depth: Behind a strong top-four in Columbus are several questions. Can the likes of Scott Harrington, Dean Kukan, and Adam Clendening really hold up down the stretch in a tight playoff race? Or go up against elite competition in the playoffs? The shot side doesn’t really matter so much as the ability, as the Blue Jackets simply need to add a capable veteran defender before the deadline.

3) Draft Picks: When Kekalainen says that he won’t trade Panarin unless the cost of acquiring a replacement would still leave him with a major future piece, that isn’t for nothing. A quick look at the team’s cupboard of draft picks shows how desperate they are in quantity alone. The Blue Jackets currently have just four picks in 2019, likely just one of which will be in the top-75, and are already missing a third-rounder next year. A closer look at the team’s pipeline shows that they lack some game-breaking talent in the system as is, particularly on the blue line. In order to be a buyer, Columbus will further deplete this trade capital. If they do trade Panarin – or Bobrovsky – Kekalainen and company need to make sure that they are going to net some valuable draft picks or prospects in the process.

Senators’ Julius Bergman Likely To Return To Sweden

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The entire Mike Hoffman situation last summer was regrettable for all involved and forced the Ottawa Senators’ hand. However, since the initial trade out of Ottawa, it has only gotten worse for the Senators. First, the team received an underwhelming return back for the perennial 20-goal scorer; the San Jose Sharks sent capable, but overpaid forward Mikkel Boedker, prospect defenseman Julius Bergman, and a sixth-round pick in exchange for Hoffman, Cody Donaghey, and a fifth-round pick. Then, they watched as the Sharks flipped Hoffman the same day to the Florida Panthers for second-, fourth-, and fifth-round picks, a much more desirable return. Over the course of this season, the Senators have been disappointed by Bergman, the default centerpiece of the Hoffman package, who has just six points through 33 games with the AHL’s Belleville Senators. Now, it seems they are about to lose Bergman entirely, just one year after acquiring him.

Sport Bladet, a reputable Swedish news source, reports that Bergman has agreed in principal on a contract to return to his former Swedish Hockey League club, Frolunda HC. Seeing as the NHL season is not yet over, Bergman cannot officially agree to any such contract. However, the 23-year-old defender is at the end of his entry-level contract and will be a restricted free agent this off-season. The Senators can only issue a qualifying offer to retain his rights, but can do nothing to stop him from signing in Sweden if he so chooses.

For all of his struggles this season, Bergman is still considered a promising prospect. A second-round pick out of Frolunda in 2014, Bergman made the jump overseas immediately to play with the OHL’s London Knights. In his one junior season, he scored 13 goals and added 29 assists as a top-pair defenseman for the Knights. He spent the next three seasons with the AHL’s San Jose Barracuda, recording 61 total points, highlighted by a 30-point campaign in 2016-17 that also included a dominant postseason performance. However, that production has dried up since his arrival in the Senators’ organization. An offensive defenseman who suddenly isn’t scoring, Bergman hasn’t given the team any reason to rush him to the NHL, yet the Sport Bladet article cites his frustration at not getting any NHL opportunity as one of the reasons for his return to Sweden.

It is still possible that Bergman decides to stay with the Senators instead of joining Frolunda. It is also possible that he spends a year or two in Sweden and wants to return as a more polished product. However, there is also a strong possibility that these next few months in the AHL are the last we see of Bergman in North America, adding insult to injury for a poor trade made in a difficult situation by the Senators.

Deadline Primer: Florida Panthers

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we continue our look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks. Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we continue with the Atlantic Division, here is a look at the Florida Panthers.

For all the talk of the Florida Panthers trading for Artemi Panarin and/or Sergei Bobrovksy, it doesn’t really make much sense. The Panthers are 11 points back of a playoff spot and don’t seem to have the makings of late-season run like in 2017-18. The team doesn’t need Panarin and Bobrovsky this year, they want them for the future. Luckily, both are slated to be unrestricted free agents this summer. The rumors of Florida’s interest may very well be true, but they will take their shot in the off-season.

No, the truth this season is that the Panthers are pure sellers and that’s it. The team entered the campaign with high expectations and have failed to perform up to the level many assumed they would. Florida has the talent in place, but simply couldn’t put it together this year. They will sell off what they can, tweak the roster this summer, and likely enter next year with high expectations again.

Record

24-24-8, sixth in the Atlantic Division

Deadline Status

Seller

Deadline Cap Space

$11.67MM in full-season cap hit, 1/3 used salary cap retention slots, 43/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: FLA 1st, PIT 2nd, EDM 3rd, FLA 4th, MIN 4th, PIT 4th, FLA 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th
2020: FLA 1st, FLA 2nd, FLA 3rd, FLA 4th, FLA 5th, TOR 5th, FLA 6th, FLA 7th

Trade Chips

The Panthers already made a major trade this season, sending Nick Bjugstad and Jared McCann to the Pittsburgh Penguins for Derick Brassard, Riley Sheahan, and a package of picks. While a second-rounder and two fourth-rounders is a nice get for Florida, this deal is still only half done. Barring an unexpected extension of either player, both Brassard and Sheahan are impending unrestricted free agents brought in as pieces for Florida to flip before the deadline. Expect the Panthers to shop both aggressively.

Yet, even prior to that trade the Panthers had UFA pieces ready to move. Veteran bottom-six forwards Troy Brouwer, Micheal Haley, and the recently-waived Jamie McGinn are all up for grabs. Defensemen Bogdan Kiselevich, Julian Melchiori, and Chris Wideman, another player acquired earlier this season, are depth options on the block as well. None of these players will return much to Florida, but if they’re able to trade all or most of them, it will result in a nice bundle of mid- to late-round picks or project prospects, which never hurts.

The team has already refuted reports that Jonathan Huberdeau is available, but the same might not be true for several other Florida players with term or team control. Mike Hoffman has been a great fit for the Panthers and is on pace for a career year offensively. However, he has just one year left on his contract and would be more highly-valued on the market now as opposed to this off-season or next season. The same can be said for Evgenii Dadonov, who has quietly been a dominant presence in Florida but will be due a significant raise after next season. There isn’t a great chance that either player is moved, but it’s certainly possible. More likely, albeit for a significantly lesser return, is that the Panthers move on from an aging RFA defender like MacKenzie Weegar or Ian McCoshen, if there’s a market. Neither has developed the way the team had hoped and it seems unlikely that they’re both back on the roster next year.

If the Panthers can figure out some way (read: retained salary) to move James Reimer, they will. The Reimer-Roberto Luongo tandem experiment has not worked out, as evidenced by the teams purported interest in Bobrovksy. Florida does not want to buy out or bury Reimer if they can trade him. Some team in need of a backup may be willing to make a deal if the Panthers eat a chunk of his $3.4MM cap hit over two more seasons. Sadly, Reimer has been the better of the two goalies this season and Luongo’s contract is basically immovable.

Five Players To Watch For: F Derick Brassard, F Riley Sheahan, F Troy Brouwer, D Bogdan Kiselevich, D MacKenzie Weegar

Team Needs

1) Prospect Defensemen: The Panthers’ biggest needs are a starting goaltender and top-four defenseman; they won’t be getting those at the deadline. However, those needs are reflective of a team defense that is simply horrid. Not a single player on Florida’s roster has a positive plus/minus following the trade of Bjugstad. No other team in the NHL can claim that unfortunate mark. This has to change if the Panthers ever want to improve. Looking ahead, the team is missing that top defensive prospect who could come in and make an impact without being yet another defensive liability. While Florida has some promising forwards in the pipeline, they should target a high-upside blue liner if possible.

2) Draft Picks: Do the Panthers really need draft picks? No. This team wants to retool in the off-season and try to compete again next year, rather than rebuild. However, when most of your deadline pieces are depth players on expiring contracts, the best you can do is maximize your draft pick return. Those picks could then be used on prospects, but also traded away for immediate help as well. If the Panthers can’t pry a top prospect – preferably a defenseman, but a forward is fine – for Brassard, look for the team to target another second-round selection this year to replace their own and pair with Pittsburgh’s.

Deadline Primer: San Jose Sharks

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With the trade deadline fast approaching, we will be taking a closer look at the situation for each team over the coming weeks.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs? As we begin to examine the Pacific Division, here is a look at the San Jose Sharks.

The moment that the San Jose Sharks traded for star defenseman Erik Karlsson, many people felt that the Sharks would be at the top of the Pacific Division. While no one was expecting the Calgary Flames to be so dominant, the Sharks are solidly in second place and with their impressive play of late, it wouldn’t be a shock if San Jose found their way back during the team’s stretch run. The Sharks have been rolling, having won 10 of 14 games and three of those games were a streak when they were forced to play without Karlsson.

With a number of veteran players trying to hold on for another deep playoff run, including Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski and Brent Burns, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Sharks picked up another significant piece to their plans to win this season. The team went out a year ago at the trade deadline and picked up Evander Kane from Buffalo, eventually locking him up long-term and they followed that up by adding Karlsson during the offseason. Throw in the fact that Thornton hasn’t been 100 percent this season and isn’t the same player due to his knee injury and the need for more depth is obvious. No one would be surprised if general manager Doug Wilson tries to pry another major piece.

Record

29-16-7, second in the Pacific Division

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

$6.76MM in full-season cap hit, 0/3 used salary cap retention slots, 45/50 contracts per CapFriendly

Upcoming Draft Picks

2019: FLA 2nd, SJS 3rd, SJS 5th, SJS 6th, SJS 7th
2020: SJS 2nd, SJS 3rd, SJS 4th, SJS 5th, OTT 5th

Trade Chips

This is where the Sharks might have some problems. The team has already moved its first-round picks in 2019 and in 2020 as they moved their 2019 pick to Buffalo for Kane and then their 2020 first-rounder for Karlsson (pending multiple conditions that are likely to hold). The team has already unloaded several key young players and prospects in separate deals, including Chris Tierney, Rudolfs Balcers, Danny O’Regan, and Josh Norris. It’s been made clear that the Sharks aren’t interested in moving too many more prospects, leaving the team bare of incoming prospects, but regardless, time is running out for a number of their veterans and with the dominance of several teams, the Sharks will want to keep up with them.

Regardless, the team may have few choices. One player the team could consider moving out would be forward Kevin Labanc, who has five goals and 30 points this season, but hasn’t been able to break into the team’s top six. The 23-year-old still has plenty of promise and might be able to being in a significant return for a player who tallied two 100-point seasons in the OHL. The team also could dip into their prospect pool that has a number of talented players, including 21-year-old goalie Josef Korenar, who appeared in the AHL All-Star game this year, AHL forwards Dylan Gambrell and Francis Perron, as well as highly-touted offensive defenseman Ryan Merkley, and junior forwards Sasha Chmelevski and Ivan Chekhovich.

Five Players To Watch For: G Aaron Dell, F Barclay Goodrow, D Tim Heed, F Kevin Labanc, D Joakim Ryan

Team Needs

1) More forward depth: The team has a solid top-six, but the third line has been average at best and hardly the scoring line the team was hoping for at the beginning of the year. With Thornton ailing, the team could use a sniper, potentially who has some experience manning the center position to improve the bottom-six. Thornton has just 10 goals and 25 points in 43 games this season and looks like he’s heading for his most disappointing season so far. While Marcus Sorensen has shown improvement, the forward has just 17 points this season, while Labanc still hasn’t full proven himself to head coach Peter DeBoer. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Sharks went to the Ottawa well again, having already worked out deals to take Mike Hoffman and Karlsson from the Senators. A rental like Matt Duchene or winger like Mark Stone would force the team to adjust their lines and put some quality offense on their third line.

2) Defensive depth: With an injury, as well as poor play, coming from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the team may want to bring in a veteran defenseman who could provide the team with some strength behind the blueline. The team has gotten surprisingly good play from defenseman Radim Simek, who the team signed out of the Czech Republic last summer. However, the team needs more help there and don’t have too much help at that position down in the AHL.

Erik Karlsson: “They Probably Would Have Traded Me Anyway”

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In a spectacular interview with Sportsnet’s Christine Simpson, San Jose Sharks defenseman opens up about his exit from the Ottawa Senators and what exactly went on between him and management over the last few months. Karlsson confirms that a deal was extremely close at the trade deadline—though doesn’t give any hint on who would have acquired him—and discusses the contract offer that the Senators did make when he became eligible for an extension.

Yeah they did [make an offer]. They did. 

I don’t think it ever got to the point where I had an option to sign anything, it never even got close to that. And even if I would have signed, they probably would have traded me anyway and I would have been somewhere else. 

The Senators traded Karlsson, who was their captain at the time, on September 13th just as training camp was set to open and claimed that it was necessary for the rebuild that they are beginning. The team received a large package of assets including Chris Tierney and Dylan DeMelo, while the Sharks were happy to add Karlsson to a defense corps that already included Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic.

Karlsson also spoke a little bit on the off-ice drama between his family and that of former teammate Mike Hoffman, explaining that no one else in the dressing room knew about the problems between them. Senators GM Pierre Dorion had claimed that the dressing room was “broken” at times last season, something that also needed to be addressed this summer.

Though the trade took quite a long time to actually be finalized, it seems as though—from Karlsson’s point of view at least—the Senators had made the decision to move on from their franchise defenseman months ago. A two-time Norris Trophy winner and one of the most dynamic players to ever play for Ottawa, he is still set to become an unrestricted free agent next offseason and could be out of the Senators’ price range altogether. Karlsson has been rumored to be after a Drew Doughty-like extension for his next deal, a contract that is worth $88MM over eight seasons. The Sharks can’t actually sign him to an eight-year deal until after this trade deadline given the current CBA, though they can certainly discuss it with him or ink a seven-year pact.

Zack Smith, 17 Others Placed On Waivers

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A substantial group of players again went untouched on the waiver wire yesterday, as there remains just one claim so far this season. Today, a new set of names become briefly available on their way down to the AHL. According to The Athletic’s James Mirtle, these 18 players have been placed on waivers by their respective teams today, highlighted by Ottawa’s longest-tenured player:

F Anton Blidh (Boston)
F Colby Cave (Boston)
D Jake Chelios (Detroit)
F Hudson Fasching (Arizona)
F Byron Froese (Montreal)
D Cody Goloubef (Boston)
F Ryan Haggerty (Pittsburgh)
D Brett Lernout (Montreal)
F Nick Lappin (New Jersey)
F Michael McCarron (Montreal)
F Mark McNeill (Boston)
D Robbie Russo (Arizona)
G Harri Sateri (Detroit)
F Hunter Shinkaruk (Montreal)
F Zack Smith (Ottawa)
F Jordan Szwarz (Boston)
F Chris Terry (Detroit)
D Rinat Valiev (Montreal)

Obviously, Smith is the star of this group and easily the biggest name to hit the wire so far this year. The decision to placed the veteran forward, a career Senator entering his eleventh season, on waivers is a curious one. Admittedly, Smith did not play well last season; beyond only recording 19 points in 68 games, he logged a brutal -32 rating, saw a drop-off in face-off success, and struggled in many possession metrics. Nevertheless, he remained a favorite of head coach Guy Boucher and saw a career high in ice time. After losing the likes of Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman this summer, Smith – while not the strongest player – was one of the few loyal locker room leaders left in Ottawa. There has already been a negative response, as Matt Duchene called the move “a kick in the balls” for the locker room, according to TSN’s Brent Wallace. For some reason, the team has decided to move on, one way or another. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the Senators have been shopping Smith for some time and had trade interest, but were not able to come to an agreement with any of the teams not included on Smith’s limited list per his modified No-Trade Clause. Now, they will either lose him for nothing in return or have the ability to bury him in the minors if he clears. Such a demotion would clear $1.025MM in cap space of his $3.25MM salary. It is important to note when considering any potential claims, that Smith is signed for three more years, making his inclusion on waivers even more surprising.

The group of Canadiens could also offer some appeal, particularly the 23-year-old power forward McCarron. Although the 2013 first-round pick has not lived up to expectations yet, he has the one thing you can’t teach and that is size. At 6’6″, 230-lbs., McCarron has the frame to do some damage at his spot on the right wing if put in the right system with the right line mates. It hasn’t happened yet in Montreal, but some other team may be willing to take a shot. Veteran grinder Froese, who played in 48 games with the Habs last year, could also get a passing glance, while trade recent Montreal trade acquisitions Shinkaruk and Valiev are somewhat intriguing albeit not likely to be claimed.

Team in search of young, affordable fourth line help could look at the Bruins’ Blidh and Cave, although such a move is unlikely. The same goes for Haggerty, whose placement on waivers comes as surprise, given that no contract has of yet been announced with Pittsburgh for the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguin.

Matt Duchene To Be Patient With Next Career Move

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Much has been made of the dwindling core of the Ottawa Senators. Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman are gone, Craig Anderson is nearing retirement, and the teams top three forwards are impending unrestricted free agents – that would be Mark Stone, Matt Duchene, and Ryan Dzingel. Given the current state and direction of the team, it has been estimated by many that all three could opt for the open market next summer. Stone took a direct approach to those rumors this week, stating that he loves Ottawa and wants to remain with the Senators.

As TSN’s Frank Servalli writes, Duchene is not so eager to decide one way or the other on his future. Earlier this off-season, Duchene said that an extension is something that he would definitely consider, but wanted to see how things go this year. Since then, it has gone from bad to worse in Ottawa with the departure of key players, as well as ownership and the front office committing to a rebuild. It seems very unlikely that the season will go well for the Senators, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that it will sour Duchene on sticking around. Duchene called last year a “disaster”, both personally and for the Senators and is looking for a fresh take this season. In his first full season with the team, Duchene’s individual performance and his fit in the locker room and in Ottawa’s long-term plan is instead what will likely dictate his next move. Duchene appreciates being close to home in Ottawa and could cherish a role as a leader with the Senators. Then again, polarizing owner Eugene Melnyk has been apprehensive about awarding expensive contracts and Duchene could decide after a strong season that he has a much better chance at getting market value and finding a winning situation with another team.

Sens fans would love to hear that Duchene is committed to the team, and sooner rather than later. After all, Ottawa gave up quite the package to acquire him from the Colorado Avalanche early last season, including what could turn out to be the top overall pick in next year’s entry draft. However, given their recent rash of bad luck, those same fans would rather Duchene be patient with his decision than be yet another player hoping to be dealt away. Unlike Stone, who – after going through the arbitration process – may not re-sign until after January 1st, Duchene is eligible to ink an extension already. Just don’t expect a decision any time soon, though.

More On Erik Karlsson Trade: Pick Conditions, Extension, Colorado

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Perhaps the biggest move of the off-season was completed earlier today, when Norris Trophy-winning defenseman Erik Karlsson was traded by the Ottawa Senators to the San Jose Sharks. The return: two-way NHL forward Chris Tierney, rookie forward Rudolfs Balcers, collegiate center and 2017 first-round pick Josh Norris, young depth defenseman Dylan DeMelo, and four draft picks. While the Senators don’t know for sure how the likes of Norris and Balcers will pan out, the players acquired in this deal are somewhat identifiable assets with ascertainable ceilings. The picks carry far more potential; however they also each carry conditions. The earliest possible pick chronologically would be a 2019 first-round pick. The Sharks owe the Buffalo Sabres their first round pick in the next NHL Draft as a condition for re-signing winger Evander Kane, but with the additional condition that they make the playoffs. Should they miss the playoffs – a catastrophic result for a team that now has meteoric expectations – the team could opt to send that pick to Ottawa and their 2020 first-rounder to Buffalo if they so choose. If not, and the Sharks make the playoffs as expected, the Senators will land that 2020 first-round pick.

Ottawa will still have an early pick from San Jose in June though, perhaps even earlier than expected. The condition on that pick is that it is the highest of the second-round picks owned by the Sharks: their own and the Florida Panthers’, which ironically was part of the return from the Sharks’ flip of former Ottawa forward Mike Hoffman earlier this year. Florida is expected to improve this season, but playing in the Atlantic Division with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs means the Panthers face an uphill battle to make the playoffs and could easily end up with a draft slot in the first half of the second round. Whereas, the Sharks should by all accounts be a playoff team and more in the coming season.

Speaking of Hoffman, the Senators learned from that experience with Sharks GM Doug Wilson. As Sportsnet’s  Chris Johnston notes, Ottawa threw in what may as well be a “Mike Hoffman Clause”. After San Jose traded for Hoffman only to trade him hours later to one of the Senators’ division rivals, GM Pierre Dorion added a conditional future first-round pick if Karlsson is traded back to the Eastern Conference this season. The pick must be exchanged by 2022 at the latest.

Finally, the Sharks sent a 2021 second-round pick to the Senators that carries two conditions. The pick itself is conditional upon San Jose re-signing Karlsson, whose current contract expires at the end of the season. If the Sharks both appear in the Stanley Cup Final this year and extend Karlsson, that pick becomes a first-rounder. In summary, at worst the Senators will receive a second-rounder in 2019 and the Sharks’ first-rounder in 2020 and at best they receive three first-round picks between now and 2022 and potentially a first-round and early second-round pick next year.

  • One condition that is already looking good for the Senators is the one that hinges on Karlsson re-signing in San Jose. Although there has been no word from the star defenseman’s camp on his future or thoughts on a contract extension, Wilson already has the future in mind. Although the relatively underwhelming return for a player of Karlsson’s caliber reflects the risk of just one year remaining on his salary, Wilson made the deal with hopes of keeping him around for much longer. Wilson told the gathered media this afternoon that “It’s a long-term approach and we think Erik fits for now and for a long time.” While Karlsson has been clear that he wants to be the highest paid defenseman in the NHL and that would be best served on the open market, the Sharks have the salary cap composition moving forward to meet his contract demands. If the season goes according to plan and the Sharks win or come close to winning the Stanley Cup, with Karlsson playing a key role for what on paper looks like the best defense in the league, he could be tempted to skip free agency and re-sign in San Jose.
  • Although the Karlsson trade was between just two teams, there is no way to truly evaluate the reverberations of this trade without discussing the Colorado Avalanche. The Senators have changed the tone of their public relations approach following this trade, being clear that they have entered a rebuild. However, the fact remains that the Senators don’t own their first-round pick next season. That selection belongs to the Avs as part of the Matt Duchene trade. With Karlsson’s departure, the team that many pegged to be the worst in the league has now lost their best player and have an even better chance of finishing the season in 31st place. This would also give them the best odds in the NHL Draft Lottery and the best odds of drafting projected franchise center Jack Hughes. However, that fate belongs to Colorado, who now stand a very high chance of seeing an already lopsided return for Duchene reach its maximum value. The 2018-19 Senators season will now likely matter more to Avalanche fans than it does to their own. To make matters worse, publicly committing to a rebuild could mean that Duchene, an impending unrestricted free agent, doesn’t even last the season on the Ottawa roster.

Atlantic Notes: Pacioretty, Luongo, Boedker

at CDT | by 2 Comments

If Montreal Canadiens captain Max Pacioretty is being genuine about wanting to stay in Montreal for the rest of his career, the team has a lot of thinking to do whether the 29-year-old winger is worth a long-term deal. Sure, he had posted five straight 30-goal seasons (if you don’t include the strike-shortened 2012-13 year), but after a 16-goal campaign last season and the fact that he’ll be 30 when he starts his new contract, there are a lot of variables that the Canadiens need to consider after the team handed goaltender Carey Price an eight-year, $84MM extension a year ago that’s already starting to look questionable and it hasn’t even started yet.

One obvious way for things to work out perfectly would be if Pacioretty can rebound and put up another banner season. Another 30-goal performance would undoubtedly make the 2017-18 season look like a fluke and would make it a whole lot easier to sign him to a new contract, according to Montreal Gazette’s Pat Hickey. However, the scribe also points out that he must improve on his mental game as well as Pacioretty has a tendency to be streaky and get down on himself when he’s not producing. It’s likely, if the veteran captain can’t make that adjustment, he’ll be heading out of town just like Andrei Markov, Alexander Radulov and P.K. Subban did in past years.

  • NHL.com’s Kevin Woodley writes that veteran goaltender Roberto Luongo is focusing more on his health this year after two injury-plagued campaigns that has kept him out of 89 games. The 39-year-old goaltender, who will turn 40 during the season, still has four years remaining on the 12-year, $64MM deal he signed with Vancouver in 2009. He has spent more than 90 minutes a day of extra time with goaltending coach Robb Tallas, focusing on his surgically repaired hip from 2016 and the groin tear he sustained last season. “Back in the day, I used to show up half an hour before I went on the ice and just throw the gear on, but these are the things I need to do be ready, to be loose and make sure everything is working properly,” Luongo said. “The main thing is I understand what I need to do as far as preparation to be where I need to be to be healthy. After my hip surgery, once I started feeling good, I kind of neglected it. You think you are back to normal, but you are not. You always have to keep on it to make sure you keep it strong and loose.” While he’s missed quite a bit of time, Luongo’s numbers haven’t suffered as he posted a .929 save percentage and three shutouts in 35 appearances.
  • Dom Luszczyszyn of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that the Ottawa Senators are considering using newly acquired winger Mikkel Boedker as a first-line option alongside Mark Stone and Matt Duchene next season. Boedker, who was acquired as part of the Mike Hoffman trade with the San Jose Sharks, has posted up-and down numbers the last several years, including a 10-goal season in 2016-17 and then 15-goal season a year ago. The scribe writes that putting Boedker on the first line will be a dangerous combination as Boedker isn’t a great two-way player and historically is a player that thrives on the power play, but rarely during even strength.

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