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Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins

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The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.

It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.

Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.

Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season  this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). Justin Schultz

Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.

Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.

It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nashville Interested In Matt Duchene

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ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reported today (video link) that the Nashville Predators have expressed interest in the Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. The Denver center stated publicly that he is open to a trade, but has not formally asked for one.

Colorado’s reported asking price for Duchene is steep. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reported that Colorado is asking for a 1st round pick, a top-four defenseman, and a top prospect. Now, just because Colorado opens with that ask doesn’t mean it won’t budge on the price if there’s a deal to be had. The Avalanche, however, are under no pressure to trade Duchene, and will only do so to kickstart a rebuild or address glaring holes. The Avalanche desperately need help on the back end, and will focus in on acquiring a above-average defender.

Using Garrioch’s report as a template, the Predators may actually have the pieces to get a deal done without hamstringing its future. Goaltending prospect Juuse Saros is stuck behind Pekka Rinne for the next two seasons, and the Predators have maintained their stellar defensive depth. It’s a big price to pay for Duchene, but the Predators have to somehow overcome the highly competitive Central Division to take the next step.

Predators GM David Poile is no stranger to big trades. In the last two years he traded Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen, and then fan favorite Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. Could a trade for Duchene complete the trifecta?

5 Key Stories: 1/23/17 – 1/29/17

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Congratulations to the members of the Metro Division All-Star team, who capped off an entertaining three-on-three tournament by defeating the Pacific Division 4 – 3. It’s time for PHR’s weekly roundup of the five key stories from the week of 1/23/17 through 1/29/17.

Colorado center Matt Duchene, the subject of trade rumors for much of the season, expressed a willingness to being dealt to another club in comments made to The Denver Post this week. The talented pivot has two years remaining on a contract that comes with an AAV of $6MM and is sure to attract plenty of trade interest. The team is reportedly hoping to land at least a young, top-four defenseman and a high draft pick in return.

The Ottawa Senators added some bottom-six depth by acquiring veteran winger Tommy Wingels from the San Jose Sharks for minor leaguers Zack Stortini and Buddy Robinson along with a seventh-round draft pick. Still just 28, Wingels could prove to be a solid pickup for the Senators. During the 2012-13 and 2013-14 campaigns, the seven-year veteran combined for 31 goals and that’s the kind of production the Senators are hoping for. From the Sharks perspective, the trade cleared needed cap space with Tomas Hertl poised to come off of IR.

Looking for additional defensive depth, the Montreal Canadiens picked up Nikita Nesterov from Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league prospect Jonathan Racine and a sixth-round draft choice. Nesterov has tallied 12 points in 35 games this season and could provide solid value for the Habs as a long-term fit on their blue line. He carries a cap hit of $725K and will be a RFA this summer.

As he draws nearer unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2018, New York Islanders franchise center John Tavares indicated he is open to inking a long-term extension to remain on Long Island despite the team’s struggles this season. It’s not a surprising position for the #1 overall selection in the 2009 draft to take. There’s no point in limiting any option this far from free agency and a lot can change between now and July 1, 2018. Any way you look at it, Tavares is going to land a lucrative long-term deal, whether it’s with the Islanders or another franchise.

Semyon Varlamov, Colorado’s starting goaltender, will miss the rest of the season following surgery to repair a groin injury. Like many of his teammates, the 2016-17 campaign has not been a good one for the Russian netminder and now his season is going to be cut short. Varlamov will have two years remaining on a deal that comes with a $5.9MM cap hit and it will be interesting to see what the Avalanche, already rumored to be considering significant roster changes, do with their goaltending situation.

 

 

Latest On The Colorado Avalanche

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The trade deadline is just a month away, and teams are circling like vultures over the bottom feeders in the NHL. They smell blood in the waters of Colorado, with media and fan pressure to shake up the team and start again. This core, though still quite young, is apparently about to be broken up. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are the most common names mentioned, and Adrian Dater of the Bleacher Report revealed what one source tells him it would cost to land one of them.

“At bare minimum it’ll take young, established D player and 1st round pick to get either Duchene or Landy”, Dater tweeted Saturday afternoon following it up by saying though Sakic could possibly get more, he’d likely do it for that package. This comes on the heels of an earlier report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun that said it would cost a young defenseman, first-round pick and a top prospect.

For the Avalanche, who sit in last place in the entire NHL and are on pace for an astonishingly-low season total of 50 points (the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 30th last season with 69 points) it’s clearly a frustrating time. The team has three forwards who are legitimate stars in Duchene, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon and an emerging talent in Mikko Rantanen, but haven’t been able to put together anything this season. For Landeskog especially this has been a tough year, scoring just 17 points through the first half of the season.

Any team looking to add one of the Colorado forwards has to be wary of their contracts, as both carry hefty cap-hits for the next few years (Landeskog has four years left while Duchene only has two). Both players do come with quite a history of success however, and are young enough to fit into pretty much any stage in a team’s development.

Afternoon Snapshots: Duchene, Wings’ Contracts, McLellan

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Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun reports that it will cost a lot for the Ottawa Senators to acquire the Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. He adds that it would behoove the Sens to wait on any potential deal for Duchene. According to Garrioch, it would cost upwards to a first round pick, a top four defenseman, and a top prospect. Garrioch adds that the requests are “fantasy” like, and that Colorado might even ask for more should the trade market yield little fruit in the way of impact players. Though Pierre Dorion is looking to improve the roster, he won’t be that desperate to give up so much.

In other news around the league:

  • TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down the nightmarish contracts the Red Wings have and it appears as bleak as it looks. He lists Henrik Zetterberg’s deal as one that will bog the team down as he ages, noting that Zetterberg is not producing as he once did. He adds that Frans Nielsen is not living up to his rich and long term contract, but that at only 32, he’s still movable. It’s the contracts for Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader where Yost sharpens his criticism as the Wings threw money away on players hardly worth the financial investment (a combined $8.1MM cap hit). Those that passed the test? Gustav Nyquist. Though paid to be a goal scorer, Yost points out that Nyquist is a core player and there are other arguments out there defending Nyquist’s value. Mike Green is another name Yost brings up as worth the money. Regardless, it’s another indication that unless Ken Holland is prudent and crafty, the Wings are in for tough times ahead.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins believes that Edmonton bench boss Todd McLellan doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the Oilers’ turnaround. An underrated catalyst to the success of the Oilers, McLellan has Leavins’ vote for the Jack Adams Award, given annually to the league’s best coach. To turn around a decade’s long culture of losing is impressive in itself. Leavins even points out that McLellan, a patient man who gets coaching advice while at Edmonton gas stations, is more than willing to accept blame for the team’s failures. Regardless of who deserves the credit for the Oilers turnaround, Leavins feels it’s a disservice to not give McLellan the lion’s share of the kudos.

Snapshots: Duchene, Fleury, Philadelphia, Wisniewski

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After Matt Duchene set the hockey hot-stove on fire this morning when he reportedly told media he was open to the idea of a trade, Darren Dreger confirmed as much on TSN’s Insider Trading. Dreger reports that though Duchene is open to a deal, he hasn’t formally asked for one and GM Joe Sakic may wait until the summer to move the talented forward. Though he would likely command a hefty sum right now, the team might be able to pry an even greater package away in the summer when teams have a little more cap flexibility.

While it’s not guaranteed that this season will be Duchene’s last in Colorado, it is certainly seeming more likely. The former third-overall pick has had an up-and-down career in the NHL but certainly has the offensive talent to be a contributor for any team.

  • In the same TSN segment, Bob McKenzie spoke about the growing frustration for Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh. The former first-overall pick hasn’t played in the last seven games for the Penguins and is starting to be considered the back up. With a no-movement clause in his contract, Fleury currently has control of his future. If he doesn’t waive it, the Penguins would be forced to protect him instead of Matt Murray in the expansion draft. If Murray was available, Las Vegas would surely select him (unless a deal was made behind the scenes) making Fleury the starter again. But since the team clearly doesn’t want him as the full-time starter any more, perhaps he’ll agree to a trade in-season or before the draft to move somewhere else around the league.
  • McKenzie also reported on the Philadelphia goaltender situation, which is currently unresolved long-term. While the team has Anthony Stolarz looking closer and closer to providing NHL netminding, they have had talks about extending one of Steve Mason or Michal Neuvirth at some point before the expansion draft. The team is likely to wait until they have to though, with neither netminder really showing they deserve a long-term deal. If the Penguins weren’t bitter rivals of the Flyers, one might suggest that the two could be trading partners for the frustrated Fleury. The summer looks like it will have a handful of starting goaltender candidates available however, with Ben Bishop leading the way as an unrestricted free agent. If Philadelphia wants to move on from the Mason-Neuvirth combo, they could wait to see what is available after the season.
  • Dreger added in a separate tweet that James Wisniewski has signed a 25-game tryout with the Chicago Wolves of the AHL. “The Wiz” was playing in the KHL after not being able to secure and NHL deal this summer. The former Blackhaws, Ducks, Canadiens, Islanders, Blue Jackets and Hurricanes defenseman was once a premiere right-handed puck mover in the NHL but injuries have limited his thirties to less than a full season of games. Chicago is the AHL squad of the St. Louis Blues, who may lose a right-handed defensemen in the next month in Kevin Shattenkirk. While Wisniewski is by no means a replacement for Shattenkirk, he does add some depth on the right side should he be able to find even a sliver of his former NHL talent.

Semyon Varlamov Set To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery

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A tough season is only getting worse for the Colorado Avalanche. Earlier today a report surfaced indicating that star center Matt Duchene would be open to a trade from Colorado. On the heels of that news, The Denver Post’s Terry Frei is reporting that Semyon Varlamov will undergo season-ending surgery to solve the groin issues that have plagued the team’s #1 goalie this season.

Varlamov has struggled to stay on the ice this season due to the groin issues and the team’s medical staff finally decided the best course of action would be surgery. The hope, according to Avalanche GM Joe Sakic, is to have Varlamov fully healthy and ready to go for training camp next summer.

“After further evaluation from our team doctors, it was determined that the best road to recovery was surgery. Doing this procedure at this time ensures that Semyon will be fully healthy for the start of training camp.”

The 28-year-old netminder was in the midst of the worst statistical season of his career, winning just six of his 23 starts while posting a GAA of 3.38 and a S% of 0.898. Varlamov has battled inconsistency throughout his nine-year NHL career but when he is on he has shown he can be one of the better goalies in the league. As recently as the 2013-14 campaign, the Russian backstop finished second in Vezina trophy voting after winning 41 games while registering a GAA of 2.41 and a S% of 0.927. He has two seasons remaining on a contract that calls for a $5.9MM cap charge.

In the interim, Frei suggests the team will stick with Pickard and current backup, Spencer Martin, for the balance of the current season. It wouldn’t make sense for the team to sacrifice assets for a stopgap alternative in the midst of a lost season. However, if a long-term option were to be made available, it wouldn’t be entirely surprising to see the Avalanche entertain a move in that direction; especially if they harbor doubts about both Varlamov and Pickard as reliable starting goalies moving forward.

The Avalanche will have an interesting decision to make ahead of the June expansion draft. They will have to expose one goalie under contract for the 2017-18 season and it’s likely that netminder will be Varlamov. However, Calvin Pickard, who has taken over between the pipes in Varlamov’s absence, hasn’t exactly grabbed the starting job with his play this season. He has posted a S% of 0.906 with a GAA of more than three in 23 appearances in 2016-17. At this point it seems unlikely that the Vegas Golden Knights would gamble on Varlamov and his cap hit but it’s too early to dismiss the possibility altogether.

 

Duchene Reportedly Open To Trade

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Matt Duchene, frequently a subject of trade rumors this season, is open to being dealt from last-place Colorado, according to The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla. The scribe spoke to the gifted center who told him that he understands the business side of the game and that he would be ready to move on from the only NHL home he has ever known.

“I’m open to it,” Duchene said Wednesday. “When I say open to it, I know it’s part of the business, and it’s something that might happen. I’m not hiding from it. I’m not running away. I’m not banging my head. I understand it’s part of what we deal with as pro athletes.”

“The trade rumor stuff is part of the business. I understand that at this juncture of the season, (with) the way things are going, something may happen, something may not. We’ll see.”

With the Colorado Avalanche’s season effectively off the rails it’s become clear the roster, as presently constructed, is fatally flawed. GM Joe Sakic has demonstrated tremendous faith in the core he’s helped assemble but it’s clear the time has come to move on and start over. Dealing Duchene would potentially represent the first major step in that direction.

There would be no shortage of suitors interested in adding the skilled Duchene. The 26-year-old center has tallied 20 goals or more in five of his seven full seasons and with 15 in 41 contests it’s a near certainty he will again reach that threshold during the 2016-17 campaign. Over his career, Duchene has averaged 26.2 goals for every 82 games played at the NHL level. There isn’t a team in the league who wouldn’t like to add that type of production to their lineup; the question is what it would cost to do so.

In desperate need to upgrade the blue line, the Avalanche will likely insist on a high-end, young defenseman to headline any trade packages for Duchene. Klisz suggests Colorado call Carolina to inquire about Denver native Jaccob Slavin. The 22-year-old Slavin is in his second NHL season and has tallied 17 points in 47 games for the Hurricanes. As a rookie, he registered a 20-point campaign in 63 appearances. Slavin would appear to represent a solid starting point in potential negotiations, but it’s likely the Avalanche would seek more in any deal for Duchene.

The Hurricanes would certainly welcome a boost to their mediocre offensive attack but how high of a price are they willing to pay? The team does boast an enviable group of blue liners, including those already at the NHL level and in their prospect pipeline, and a case could be made that Duchene is exactly the type of proven player the team should target. With two more seasons on his deal coming with a cap hit of $6MM, Duchene is a player who can help Carolina both today and into the future.

While other names have been linked to trade rumors in Colorado, such as that of team captain Gabriel Landeskog, it seems most likely Duchene will be on the move sooner rather than later. With his track record of individual success – including multiple gold medals representing Team Canada on the international circuit – age, and contractual control, clubs will be willing to pony up the necessary assets to pry the pivot away from Colorado.

Atlantic Notes: Yandle, Gionta, Duchene, Coreau

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Although things haven’t gone the way the Florida Panthers expected this season, GM and interim head coach Tom Rowe is quite pleased with the play of their key offseason acquisition, defenseman Keith Yandle, he told Harvey Fialkov of the Sun-Sentinel:

“He’s fit in terrific. He’s such a positive influence on our young guys and in our locker room in general. We targeted him as our No. 1 free agent signing [because we] thought he’d really complement our forwards.”

The team was hoping he’d add another dimension to their power play but injuries to Jonathan Huberdeau, Nick Bjugstad, and Aleksander Barkov has resulted in a drop from 2015-16’s 16.9% success rate.  However, Yandle, who signed a six year, $44.45MM contract after Florida traded for his negotiating rights, leads all Panther blueliners in points with 23 and is tied for the team lead in assists with 20 (while also tying for the team lead in power play points) so their struggles can’t all be attributed to him.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • Although he recently turned 38 and is slated to become an unrestricted free agent in July, Sabres captain Brian Gionta isn’t planning on retiring at the end of the season, writes John Vogl of the Buffalo News. The veteran added that he isn’t worried about his situation heading into the trade deadline either.  It’s worth noting that Gionta doesn’t have a full no-trade clause this year as he has a five team list that he can be traded to, per CapFriendly.  Gionta may not be the top six forward he was with New Jersey and Montreal but with 10 goals and 22 points on the season, he can still be a productive bottom six option on a contending team if he’s moved by March 1st.
  • While the Senators haven’t been linked to Colorado center Matt Duchene, Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen argues that they should make a run at acquiring him. Not only would he replace Clarke MacArthur who is out for the year with a concussion, his addition would also likely help their attendance, where they rank in the bottom ten league-wide.  Warren adds that the Ottawa’s window to win revolves around blueliner Erik Karlsson, whose contract expires after 2018-19 so they should be thinking about adding and winning now while he’s still on a below-market contract.  Duchene’s contract, by the way, also expires following the 2018-19 season.
  • Red Wings goalie Jared Coreau had an awful rookie professional season in 2013-14, winning just one of 25 appearances. It was there that he first met current Detroit bench boss Jeff Blashill who was very direct in telling him what needed to be done if he was to succeed as a pro, writes Nick Cotsonika of NHL.com.  Coreau credits his success since then to Blashill’s bluntness, which resulted in him losing weight, seeing a sports psychologist, and undergoing special vision training.  Having won five of his first eight decisions, the 25 year old has held his own since being recalled to cover for Jimmy Howard who has been out since late December with an MCL sprain.

Islanders Notes: Beauvillier, Rentals, Duchene

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While many are familiar with the nine game rule for junior-aged NHL players, there is a second threshold that some teams believe is even more critical, the 40 game mark.  If a junior-aged player is on an active NHL roster for 40 games, they accrue one season towards unrestricted free agency.  The key here is that games played does not matter here – if they’re on the roster, even as a healthy scratch, it still counts.

The New York Islanders find themselves in this situation with rookie winger Anthony Beauvillier.  He has played just 26 games this year (being scratched the other 13) but their next game against the Panthers will mark number 40, thus giving him an accrued season of service time towards becoming an unrestricted free agent.  (Basically, instead of being UFA-eligible at age 27, Beauvillier will be eligible at age 26.)

Considering the situation the Islanders find themselves in when it comes to the standings (dead last out of 16 teams in the Eastern Conference) and some of the struggles from their veteran players, Brian Erni of Islanders Point Blank argues that they have completely misused Beauvillier.  In a season that looks like it is going to be a losing one, he suggests that the rookie should be seeing a lot more ice time and in the lineup on a regular basis.

The situation draws some parallels to Nino Niederreiter back in 2011-12.  He too was a junior aged player who struggled to find consistent playing time while struggling veteran players were in the lineup on a regular basis.  Eventually the Swiss winger went public with his frustration and wound up being dealt to the Wild that offseason as part of the Cal Clutterbuck trade.

There’s no indication that Beauvillier, who has four goals and five assists this season, is headed down the same path as Niederreiter but his lack of recent usage has been a bit surprising and frustrating for many.  With their second half of the season fast approaching, it certainly will be interesting to see if he gets a longer leash to work with.

Other Islander notes:

  • With the Islanders likely to sell at the deadline, Newsday’s Arthur Staple takes a look at some of the potential rental players in a reader mailbag. He mentions that while goaltender Thomas Greiss may be the most attractive option to other teams, he believes that New York would like to keep him around beyond this season which could take him off the market.  He adds that Dennis Seidenberg would be another candidate to move but that they wouldn’t likely get much in return.
  • Still from Staple, he suggests that of the two Colorado forwards believed to be on the market (center Matt Duchene and winger Gabriel Landeskog), the team has more interest in Duchene despite having a greater positional need on the wing. However, he’s quick to add that the price (which would likely include their first round pick – which is shaping up to be an early one – plus a one or two top youngsters) remains far too high for GM Garth Snow to consider.

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