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Deadline Primer: Nashville Predators

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With the trade deadline now just weeks away, we’re taking a closer look at each team.  Where do they stand, what do they need to do, and what assets do they have to fill those needs?

Many people, including everyone’s favorite PHR writer, considered the Nashville Predators to be a dark horse candidate to win the Stanley Cup in 2016-17. While we are still a few months out from seeing if that comes to fruition, at this point in time the team looks an awful lot like the same team it was last year. The addition of P.K. Subban and what many suspected would be the best puck-moving defense in the NHL has been hindered by long injury absences to both top pair defensemen. Ryan Johansen is performing well, but still not up to the level that he exhibited with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Scoring bumps by captain Mike Fisher, Viktor Arvidsson, and Colin Wilson have been counteracted by drop-offs from James Neal, Craig Smith, and Mattias Ekholm. Overall, the teams middling numbers in goals for and goals against are eerily similar to what they were in 2015-16.

If this team is, for all intents and purposes, the same team it was last year, that’s not a bad thing. The 2015-16 Predators clinched the first wild card spot in the Western Conference and upset the Pacific-winning Anaheim Ducks in the first round. They then lost to the eventual conference champion San Jose Sharks, but took them seven games, which is more than the St. Louis Blues could do in the championship round. It was the best postseason performance in franchise history. However, the current iteration of the Predators is sitting in the second wild card spot, trailing the Blues and trying to hold off the Los Angeles Kings, and is on pace to finish five points shy of last year’s mark. They got off to a slows start and have had to grind their way back into the conversation. Although the numbers are similar, this year’s team feels just a little off. After an impressive 2015-16 campaign, instead of shocking the league with a triumphant sequel, the Predators are not even guaranteed a playoff spot this year, despite playing nearly identical hockey.

As always, Nashville is lousy with salary cap space. GM David Poile is one of the best there is and has already shown a willingness to make moves with the recent acquisitions of Cody McLeod and Vernon Fiddler. If Poile believes that this team has what it takes to go farther than any Predators have gone before, expect him to put that space, a nearly-full collection of draft picks, and quite a bit of prospect capital to work as the Trade Deadline grows closer.

Record

27-21-8, 4th in the Central Division, 8th in the Western Conference

Deadline Status

Buyer

Deadline Cap Space

Current Cap Space: $13,756,773

Deadline Cap Space: $18,571,644

45/50 contracts, via CapFriendly

Draft Picks

2017: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NYR 6th, NSH 7th
2018: NSH 1st, NSH 2nd, NSH 3rd, NSH 4th, NSH 5th, NSH 6th, NSH 7th

Trade Chips

Just like when the Predators shipped Seth Jones to Columbus for Johansen last year, expect Poile to dangle some young defenseman in front of teams this month. Nashville has Subban, Ekholm, Roman Josi, and Ryan Ellis locked up long term. Do they really need Anthony Bitetto? Petter Granberg? Trevor Murphy? They could even offer up promising young blue liners like Alexandre Carrier, Dante Fabbro, or Samuel Girard for the right return. On the flip side, all of this talented prospect depth on defense could also allow them to move an Ellis or Ekholm if presented with a big-ticket offer. Normally a contender wouldn’t consider such a major move in-season, but this where the upcoming Expansion Draft comes into play. If the Predators want to protect their four star defensemen, as one would imagine they do, they can then only protect four forwards as well, potentially leaving big names like Arvidsson, Smith, and Wilson exposed. It also limits who Nashville can bring in at the deadline, as any player with term remaining on their contract changes the protection formula. However, by trading one of the defenseman and just protecting the three others, the Predators could then protect seven forwards, removing their top six and any additional acquisitions from harm’s way.

Players To Watch

D Anthony Bitetto, D Trevor Murphy, D Alexandre Carrier, F Pontus Aberg, F Miikka Salomaki

Team Needs

1)  Scoring Forward – The Predators simply aren’t putting the puck in the net enough. They need a forward who can score goals himself, help to create goals for the struggling second and third lines, and help out on the 17th-ranked power play. The top name (reportedly) on the market is Matt Duchene, and with Nashville’s wealth of defensive talent, they may actually be able to meet the Colorado Avalanche’s high asking price. Adding another center would also allow the Predators to move Calle Jarnkrok to his natural wing positions. Whether it’s a center or wing or a sniper, speedster, or power forward, Nashville will likely be in on anyone who can help with production up front. A talented scoring forward is really need one, two, and three for this team if there are multiple rental guys out there who they can grab without paying too much.

2) Defensive defenseman – As good as Matt Irwin and Yannick Weber have unexpectedly been for the Preds this season, neither really inspires much confidence as a playoff starter. Nor does Brad Hunt, the next man up, who was picked up off of waivers from St. Louis last month, but has yet to play. What Nashville needs is a veteran shutdown defenseman to eat up some postseason minutes and play responsible defensive hockey. Poile has also shown through his recent moves that he feels the team needs more grit and toughness. If the Predators are still rolling come March 1st and feel good about their playoff chances, this need could turn into a big acquisition. Otherwise, a nice depth player who presents an upgrade over their current #5-#7 defenders would still be helpful albeit more affordable and reasonable.

 

Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Bruins, Canadiens

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For the Maple Leafs, the past calendar year has been one of wild swings. In the last 12 months (and a few days) the team dealt team captain Dion Phaneuf to Ottawa for cap relief, finished last in the NHL, drafted the future face of the franchise and vaulted themselves into playoff contention. In the last few weeks though the team has held on tight as the roller-coaster has tilted up on two wheels.

The team currently sits tied with Philadelphia for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, but has had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net in recent weeks. After two back-to-back shutouts over Calgary and Detroit in late January, the team has allowed 30 goals in eight games and gone 2-4-2. Kristen Shilton of TSN reports on their mediocrity and where the team’s mindset is as they try to turn things around. One of the positive notes has been the play of William Nylander, who after an early season demotion to the fourth line has recharged his defensive tanks and become a leader on a shutdown line with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov.

The team has no time to settle in though, with a condensed schedule and eight games in the fifteen nights remaining in February. They’ll take on the New York Islanders tomorrow on home ice.

  • The Boston Bruins are 3-0 with their new head coach, getting a boost from the new voice of Bruce Cassidy behind the bench. They tore apart their rival Montreal Canadiens last night 4-0 and have put some space between them and the struggling Maple Leafs. Perhaps the coaching move was the right choice, but they’re in for a tough road trip when they come back off their mandated bye-week. The team will hit the road on the west coast with matchups against San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Dallas out of the break—a tough schedule for anyone.
  • Montreal could do with a little of that coaching magic, writes Michael Traikos of the National Post. While the Bruins surge, the Canadiens flounder at the top of the Atlantic Division, now only six points ahead of the Ottawa Senators despite having played five more games. For what at one point looked like a lock for the top see in the division, Montreal now faces a tough final stretch of games. Traikos opines that Michel Therrien should be fired like his Boston counterpart, despite still holding onto that top seed. For now he remains with the team an they’ll come out of their break against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday.
  • Hopefully they will return with some help, says Ken Campbell of The Hockey News. In his latest column, Campbell examines the Canadiens need for some secondary scoring help behind the top duo of Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov. After Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and AGM Chris McFarland were seen in attendance at the Bruins-Habs matchup on Sunday, hope sprung in Montreal about a possible addition of one of the two young players on the Avalanche trade-block. Both Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog would provide a nice punch to the second line for the Habs, though the asking price remains as high as ever.

Garrioch’s Latest: Julien, Duchene, Hanzal, Hansen

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While some expect recently-fired coach Claude Julien to resurface as the head coach elsewhere, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun suggests in his latest Insider Trading column that he can afford to be ‘choosy’ about where he wants to go next which could delay a decision until sometime in the playoffs.  That would then allow him to see if any teams that get in but are ousted quickly make a change which might be a more desirable spot than going to a non-playoff team (or even the expansion Golden Knights).  He notes that Tampa Bay and Dallas could be a pair of teams that will ponder a change if things don’t improve by the end of the season.

As usual, Garrioch also has some notes on trade talk around the league.  The full column is worth a read but here are some of the highlights:

  • The Hurricanes are making a big push for Colorado center Matt Duchene. There could be a decent fit between the teams as Carolina has several strong young defensemen which is something the Avalanche are looking for in a potential return.  Garrioch adds that blueliner Noah Hanifin is someone that Colorado is asking for as part of a package for the 26 year old forward.
  • Coyotes head coach Dave Tippett will have a large say in the process when it comes to trading pending UFA center Martin Hanzal. The asking price remains very high from GM John Chayka and while plenty of teams remain interested, no one is willing to meet it just yet.  This certainly feels like a situation that’s going to come close to the wire as teams will hope to out-wait the Coyotes in the hopes that they will accept a lower offer at the deadline rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency.  The two sides have held extension talks earlier in the season but they weren’t able to get a new deal done.
  • If the Canucks ultimately decide to sell, winger Jannik Hansen is someone that several teams have interest in. His flexibility to play in different roles as well as a manageable $2.5MM cap hit should be attractive to some teams, especially those who may be tighter to the cap on March 1st.  As part of his modified no-trade clause, Hansen has to submit a list of eight teams he would accept a trade to which could potentially complicate things.  We took a closer look at his situation last week which includes a breakdown of some teams that Hansen would fit with if Vancouver decides to move him.

Latest From Insider Trading: Coaches, Jets, Canucks

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The all-star reporter panel at TSN comprised of Darren Dreger, Bob McKenzie and Pierre LeBrun took to the air again today with their latest segment of Insider Trading. They touched on both Claude Julien and Ken Hitchcock, two of the big coaching names that have been fired recently, saying both will likely wait until the summer to take another job. McKenzie said that Hitchcock would consider a move to a long-term situation if he finds a fit, but wouldn’t “come out of the bullpen” so to speak.

It will be interesting to see what this means for the Vegas club, which now has a very established list of coaches to try to bring in if they choose to go that way. It’s been said before that Vegas likely wants a big presence for their first coach to try and make a splash in the market, and it’s not clear if Julien, Hitchcock or even Gerard Gallant would fit that mold.

  • LeBrun insisted again that the Chicago Blackhawks sound like they’ll be very quiet at the deadline this year because of their cap issues. As much as Stan Bowman keeps saying that the Hawks won’t make another bold move at the deadline, it’s hard to believe that they won’t try to make at least a slight upgrade for another run. They still need help on the wing and remember that they do have three extra (albeit late round) draft picks for this season in hand.
  • The Vancouver Canucks are falling out of the picture after a successful middle stretch of the season, and will now start to field questions for their top players. McKenzie relates that even though GM Jim Benning said prior to the season that he would not ask any players to waive their no-trade clauses, he now admits that he would got to them with options if teams were calling on them. Goaltender Ryan Miller and forward Alex Burrows were mentioned specifically, but remember that Alex Edler and Brandon Sutter also have NTCs and would bring back solid returns in trade should the Canucks decide to completely tear it down.
  • After the Jets got some terrible news on the defensive front with Tyler Myers undergoing another surgery, Dreger says they’ll be hard pressed to find a replacement. GM Kevin Cheveldayoff had already been looking around for some depth on the blueline, and now has even more problems to try and fix. It will be interesting to see where the Jets are in another two weeks and whether they need to add to try and make a deep playoff push or sell off some expiring assets.
  • LeBrun does also mention the past reports that the Ottawa Senators kicked the tires on both Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog, but says that it didn’t get very far. Ottawa isn’t willing to part with the kind of package that the Avalanche are currently asking for, though would be open to negotiation should it fall. Both Avalanche forwards seem like tough bets to move in-season, but if the team is committed to shaking up the core, Ottawa could come back to the table in the summer.

Central Division Snapshots: Preds, Wild, Fabbri

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Nashville Predators GM David Poile is no stranger to making major trades. In the last 13 months alone, the veteran executive has completed two blockbuster one-for-one swaps, first acquiring center Ryan Johansen for defenseman Seth Jones then dealing longtime team captain Shea Weber to Montreal for fellow blue liner P.K. Subban. This propensity for making big moves leads Adam Vingan of The Tennessean to wonder whether Nashville will make another headline deal before the trade deadline.

Poile already picked up veteran fourth-line center Vernon Fiddler in a deal from New Jersey and the team has been linked to Colorado center Matt Duchene. But while the Predators could use more offensive flair at the pivot position, Poile is hesitant to sacrifice the one asset just about everyone else wants from him at this point: young defensemen. Poile already sacrificed Jones, who is enjoying a breakout campaign with Columbus, doesn’t seem interested in depleting his defense corps further: “We can’t be doing that all the time, or you won’t have one of the best defenses.” As Vingan notes, Poile will be listening but major trades are tough to pull off in-season so any moves the Preds do make are likely to be similar to the recent acquisitions of Fiddler and Cody McLeod.

Elsewhere in the Central Division:

  • As it stands, the Minnesota Wild are in a comfortable spot in the division, holding a four-point lead over second place Chicago and 15 points ahead of third-place Nashville. Barring an epic collapse, the team is virtually assured of hosting at least a first-round playoff series. As Michael Russo of the Star Tribune writes, this cushion will allow Wild bench boss Bruce Boudreau to experiment with his forward lines and defense pairs in order to help GM Chuck Fletcher better identify what the team’s needs are ahead of the deadline. For instance, Boudreau will slot Charlie Coyle, who has spent much of the season riding shotgun on Eric Staal’s line, at center for tonight’s game against Winnipeg with Alex Tuch moving into the lineup at wing. He’ll also have room to give Mike Reilly and Gustav Olofsson more playing time and if they perform well, it may give Fletcher the confidence needed to move one of the team’s top blue liners in a deal to both save cap space and to acquire help at other positions.
  • According to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the St. Louis Blues will for the time being look to internal options to replace Robby Fabbri, who the team just learned will miss the rest of the season with an ACL injury. In the wake of the injury, the team recalled forwards Kenny Agostino, who tallied just the second goal of his NHL career and the first in almost three years yesterday, and Magnus Paajarvi from Chicago of the AHL. The team will have three-plus weeks to figure out whether those two can adequately fill in before investigating the options available on the trade market. Regardless of how the ultimately choose to do so, replacing Fabbri won’t be easy. While he’s had an up-and-down season in 2016-17, the 21-year-old winger is an extremely skilled player and a key part of the team’s top-nine forward group.

Latest From Garrioch: Julien, Doan, Coyotes, Shattenkirk, Duchene

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While many are wondering if the Bruins will opt to replace Claude Julien as head coach, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun suggests that team owner Jeremy Jacobs has played a big role in keeping him around.  On the flip side, he notes that team president Cam Neely wouldn’t mind a change being made.  Julien is the longest-tenured coach in the NHL and is in his tenth season behind Boston’s bench.  The Bruins currently find themselves in a playoff spot but they sit just one point ahead of Toronto who have five games in hand so it likely won’t be long before they’re on the outside looking in.

Garrioch also covered several league-wide topics in his Insider Trading column.  Here are some of the highlights although the full column is worth a read:

  • While it’s far from a guarantee that Arizona right winger Shane Doan decides to agree to a deal, it sounds like he may be staying in the Pacific Division if he does move as he would prefer to not have to go too far. Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles are believed to have interest in the 40 year old.  After a 28 goal 2015-16 campaign, Doan’s offensive production has slowed down considerably this year as he has just five goals and 12 assists in 51 games.  Accordingly, he would be a bottom six forward if he does eventually agree to a move.
  • While it’s well-known that the asking price for Coyotes center Martin Hanzal is quite high, GM John Chayka has also put a very high price tag on some of their other rental players including right winger Radim Vrbata, center Ryan White, and defenseman Michael Stone. As of yet, no one’s willing to meet the prices and it’s worth remembering that the playoff bonuses in Vrbata’s contract will be absorbed by whoever acquires him which should affect his value.  Stone’s likely to fetch a decent return as one of the better rental blueliners but the price for White, a fourth line center, shouldn’t be too high.
  • One team in the Eastern Conference received permission over the last two weeks to talk to St. Louis defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk regarding a contract extension. However, that deal fell through.  It has been suggested over the past few weeks that it’s much more likely that Shattenkirk will have to be dealt as a rental and not in a sign-and-trade deal which would undoubtedly yield a better return for the Blues.
  • The Lightning are among the teams to express an interest in Matt Duchene. Given who they have to re-sign this summer (including forwards Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat), it seems difficult to imagine that they’d be able to keep them and add Duchene’s $6MM cap hit although it’s also possible that one of those players could be of interest to Colorado GM Joe Sakic in a possible deal.

Trade Deadline Updates: Hanzal and Duchene

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The hot stove is on fire as trade deadline rumors heat up. With less than a month to go, the big names on the board are the subject of increased speculation. Today brings new information on two of the biggest names expected to move this season.

Martin Hanzal
ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reported on TSN’s Insider Trading that the Arizona Coyotes received serious calls from ten teams inquiring about Martin Hanzal. PHR highlighted Hanzal’s appeal earlier this week, and LeBrun’s report only corroborate’s Hanzal’s popularity. Lebrun’s ESPN colleague Craig Custance (insider access) reported earlier today that the Coyotes fielded interest from up to twelve teams, which means almost half the league is chasing the pending unrestricted free agent.

The interest is entirely warranted. Hanzal has a low $3.1MM cap hit, and while his point totals won’t get him top-line duty, he provides excellent depth and insurance for teams looking to make a deep run. With the salary cap making it harder and harder to construct a deep team, adding someone like Hanzal at the deadline is a short-term workaround.

Matt Duchene
It wasn’t too long ago that Matt Duchene was anointed the future leader of the Colorado Avalanche. And yet in 2017 Duchene finds himself embroiled in rampant trade rumors. TSN’s Bob McKenzie stated that the Avalanche established a high asking price somewhere in the range of three or four high-end pieces. The Avalanche are looking for an established player, a top prospect, and a 1st round draft pick—but would settle for two almost-established players for the first piece.

There is no doubt that the ask is high, implying that Duchene may not be moved until the offseason. It will be hard for GM Joe Sakic to significantly decrease his original ask lest he lose bargaining power in subsequent trades. Moreover, while the Avs could use a reboot, they may be better off keeping Duchene if his return doesn’t significantly help the team in the long run.

 

Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins

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The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.

It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.

Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.

Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season  this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). Justin Schultz

Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.

Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.

It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nashville Interested In Matt Duchene

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ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun reported today (video link) that the Nashville Predators have expressed interest in the Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. The Denver center stated publicly that he is open to a trade, but has not formally asked for one.

Colorado’s reported asking price for Duchene is steep. The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reported that Colorado is asking for a 1st round pick, a top-four defenseman, and a top prospect. Now, just because Colorado opens with that ask doesn’t mean it won’t budge on the price if there’s a deal to be had. The Avalanche, however, are under no pressure to trade Duchene, and will only do so to kickstart a rebuild or address glaring holes. The Avalanche desperately need help on the back end, and will focus in on acquiring a above-average defender.

Using Garrioch’s report as a template, the Predators may actually have the pieces to get a deal done without hamstringing its future. Goaltending prospect Juuse Saros is stuck behind Pekka Rinne for the next two seasons, and the Predators have maintained their stellar defensive depth. It’s a big price to pay for Duchene, but the Predators have to somehow overcome the highly competitive Central Division to take the next step.

Predators GM David Poile is no stranger to big trades. In the last two years he traded Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen, and then fan favorite Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. Could a trade for Duchene complete the trifecta?

5 Key Stories: 1/23/17 – 1/29/17

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Congratulations to the members of the Metro Division All-Star team, who capped off an entertaining three-on-three tournament by defeating the Pacific Division 4 – 3. It’s time for PHR’s weekly roundup of the five key stories from the week of 1/23/17 through 1/29/17.

Colorado center Matt Duchene, the subject of trade rumors for much of the season, expressed a willingness to being dealt to another club in comments made to The Denver Post this week. The talented pivot has two years remaining on a contract that comes with an AAV of $6MM and is sure to attract plenty of trade interest. The team is reportedly hoping to land at least a young, top-four defenseman and a high draft pick in return.

The Ottawa Senators added some bottom-six depth by acquiring veteran winger Tommy Wingels from the San Jose Sharks for minor leaguers Zack Stortini and Buddy Robinson along with a seventh-round draft pick. Still just 28, Wingels could prove to be a solid pickup for the Senators. During the 2012-13 and 2013-14 campaigns, the seven-year veteran combined for 31 goals and that’s the kind of production the Senators are hoping for. From the Sharks perspective, the trade cleared needed cap space with Tomas Hertl poised to come off of IR.

Looking for additional defensive depth, the Montreal Canadiens picked up Nikita Nesterov from Tampa Bay in exchange for minor league prospect Jonathan Racine and a sixth-round draft choice. Nesterov has tallied 12 points in 35 games this season and could provide solid value for the Habs as a long-term fit on their blue line. He carries a cap hit of $725K and will be a RFA this summer.

As he draws nearer unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2018, New York Islanders franchise center John Tavares indicated he is open to inking a long-term extension to remain on Long Island despite the team’s struggles this season. It’s not a surprising position for the #1 overall selection in the 2009 draft to take. There’s no point in limiting any option this far from free agency and a lot can change between now and July 1, 2018. Any way you look at it, Tavares is going to land a lucrative long-term deal, whether it’s with the Islanders or another franchise.

Semyon Varlamov, Colorado’s starting goaltender, will miss the rest of the season following surgery to repair a groin injury. Like many of his teammates, the 2016-17 campaign has not been a good one for the Russian netminder and now his season is going to be cut short. Varlamov will have two years remaining on a deal that comes with a $5.9MM cap hit and it will be interesting to see what the Avalanche, already rumored to be considering significant roster changes, do with their goaltending situation.

 

 

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