Snapshots: Schmidt, Saad, Hossa
The Vegas Golden Knights have had a busy off-season in the lead-up to their first NHL season, and Gary Lawless laid out some of what still lies ahead for the fledgling franchise. Most notably, the team has to sign RFA Nate Schmidt, the former Washington defenseman who showed great promise as a productive player. PHR’s Gavin Lee touched on the reportedly productive manner of the talks a few days back, but he is one of the more intriguing names left on the arbitration docket. Schmidt will likely be a pivotal piece of their defense for years, as the team resisted trading him away to teams desperate for defensive help, opting instead to move older names.
Schmidt shouldn’t be too expensive in arbitration, as he only has 43 points through 200 career games. Still, Vegas seems intent to lock him up on a longer deal, and considering that they’ve cleared their focus of other distractions, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a deal get done soon. If the parties come to an agreement, it would likely be above the $3 MM mark.
- Sports Illustrated ran an interesting piece highlighting the Blackhawks’ strategy of re-acquiring old players. Brandon Saad in particular sounds thrilled to be back in Chicago with Coach Joel Quenneville. Saad had two 53-point seasons in Columbus, but at only 24, he still has room to improve. It sounds like the plan is to re-unite him with captain Jonathan Toews, to try to spark the captain with a familiar linemate. Toews ended the season with a respectable 21 goals and 58 points, but struggled mightily to score for long stretches of time before a stellar home stretch. Saad will have big shoes to fill to replace the incredibly dynamic Artemi Panarin, however, and Patrick Kane‘s line will likely see a huge hit in production in order to achieve greater balance in the lineup.
- After the announcement that Marian Hossa is indefinitely sidelined due to a degenerate skin disorder, Blackhawks players unsurprisingly see the situation as “heartbreaking”. Hossa will not skate in 2017-18 due his medical need to discontinue NHL play. Hossa has a solid case for the Hall of Fame when he decides to retire, and being an important part of three Cup-winning teams, his loss is hard to calculate prior to the start of the season. Saad’s return may help fill some of that void, especially with Toews, but his production still will be near impossible to replace internally. More than that, however, he was arguably Blackhawks’ best defensive forward, backchecking consistently and with purpose. It will be interesting to see how the stretched-thin defense, minus Niklas Hjalmarsson, copes with one less Selke-caliber forward assisting their efforts.
Blackhawks Notes: Sharp, Saad, DeBrincat
The Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Lazerus (along with various Chicago media) tweeted quite a bit from the beginning of the Blackhawks Fan Convention as players and personnel were available to the media. It was a reunion of sorts as two former players returned to field questions. Patrick Sharp returns to the place where he saw much success, saying that he had some of his “best years” playing for Joel Quenneville in Chicago. Lazerus tweets that Quenneville could use Sharp with Jonathan Toews, and to expect the veteran winger to see top six minutes, which may not thrill some fans. Brandon Saad confirmed that he would be on a line with Toews, which was the belief of many after Stan Bowman swung a deal to re-acquire the forward. The Athletic’s Scott Powers tweeted video of different interviews which included Quenneville, Patrick Kane talking about the Panarin trade, and Sharp’s return to Chicago.
- Several hockey analysts are “tapping the brakes” when declaring Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat as the next big thing. The Hockey News’ Jared Clinton and Chicago SportsNet’s Tracey Myers both covered this, with Clinton adding onto Myers’ analysis. First, the salary cap limits who the Hawks can add to the roster, and the only player as of now who can shuffle to the AHL without passing through waivers is Nick Schmaltz. Should Marian Hossa go onto the LTIR, more than enough money would be available for many in Rockford to go onto the roster. Second, head coach Joel Quenneville isn’t exactly one to hand out ice time to kids. Clinton notes that DeBrincat is only 19, and the only players under 21 to see significant ice time during Quenneville’s tenure were Kane and Toews. Of course, Clinton notes, Toews was the captain and Kane was a budding superstar. Further, Clinton writes that Schmaltz, considered one of Chicago’s best prospects, struggled to stay in the lineup last season, showing that cracking the NHL lineup and then staying on it is far more difficult than it appears. Realistically, Clinton believes that the Hawks have the luxury to “over-season” players and allow them time to grow into a role–something that DeBrincat may very well do.
Chicago Blackhawks Bring Back Patrick Sharp
As indicated by reports this morning, the Chicago Blackhawks have indeed signed Patrick Sharp. After a two-year hiatus with the Dallas Stars, the three-time Stanley Cup winner is back home in Chicago to the tune of just $1MM. TSN’s Bob McKenzie reports that the deal is for one year and carries an $800K base salary with $200K in bonuses for games played.
This could be quite the steal for the Blackhawks, given that Sharp scored 78 points in his last fully healthy season in Chicago. While Sharp struggled with injuries and inconsistency last season in Dallas, he posted 55 points in his first season with the team the year before and another 43 in just 68 games in his final season in Chicago. Armed with a top-end shot, Sharp was always the beneficiary of great offensive linemates on the Blackhawks and there is no reason to think he won’t excel again, even if he has lost a step.
Sharp becomes the second player this week to re-join the Blackhawks after the team re-acquired Brandon Saad from the Columbus Blue Jackets in a deal that saw Artemi Panarin shipped out of town. While neither Sharp nor Saad could single-handedly make up for the loss of offense from Panarin’s departure, together the two may be able to get the job done if they can re-ignite the old chemistry they had with the likes of Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane.
Deadline Approaches To Ask Players To Waive No-Movement Clauses
On the heels of yesterday’s report that both Keith Yandle and Dion Phaneuf had been asked to waive their no-movement clauses in order to be exposed for the upcoming expansion draft, speculation is running rampant around the league on who else will be asked. Below is the full list of players who currently require protection due to their clauses. The deadline to submit a request to a player is 4pm CDT today, while the player must inform the team of his decision by the same time on Friday June 16th. Because the Stanley Cup Finals ended last night, Nashville and Pittsburgh will not receive an extension and will need to submit their requests at the same time as every other team.
Elliotte Friedman was on Sportsnet radio today and mentioned that the Anaheim Ducks have spoken with Kevin Bieksa about possibly waiving his clause, something examined at length in our recent Ducks Expansion Primer.
Anaheim (4)
Kevin Bieksa — Expected to be asked.
Ryan Getzlaf
Ryan Kesler
Corey Perry
Arizona (1)
Alex Goligoski
Boston (4)
David Backes
Patrice Bergeron
Zdeno Chara
David Krejci
Leafs Notes: Kovalchuk, Nylander, Van Riemsdyk
Howard Berger praised Leafs’ management and their willingness to “think outside the box” with regards to player movement in a recent article. He revisits the Ilya Kovalchuk speculation and the article does beg the question of whether the Leafs were (or are) seriously interested. They do have a bit of cap room to play with, and are undoubtedly a team on the rise. Without taking a massive paycut, and with the New York area teams reportedly backing away, it does limit Kovalchuk’s potential landing spots were he to make an NHL return. A long-term deal would almost certainly be out of the question, but he could provide a noticeable veteran presence up front and would immediately catapult the Leafs into a dominant offensive team. With youngsters Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and Auston Matthews all looking to build upon their immensely successful season, the grizzled Kovalchuk could serve as a stabilizing mentor.
- Also mentioned in the article is potentiality of trading Nylander going forward. Berger cites the Chicago Blackhawks model of 3 core players – 2 forwards and 1 defenseman (Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith) – as what GM Lou Lamoriello should seek to mimic. The core of Marner, Nylander, and Matthews needs a solidifying defensive force to round out the group (so the theory goes) and Berger believes Nylander is the weakest of the three. This would certainly be “outside the box”, but there is little logic in forfeiting an explosive talent up front merely because of contract concerns, at least at this early stage. As the Pittsburgh Penguins are proving this off-season, a solid group of defenseman is enough to overcome the absence of a marquee name.
- In spite of all the smoke that constantly surrounds the Maple Leafs in their hockey-crazed media market, management has been relatively conservative in their rebuilding approach. It seems unlikely that Toronto will make a massive transaction and will instead quietly build upon last season’s advances. Although they have been known to venture outside the league for help (Nikita Zaitsev, Leo Komarov), Kovalchuk will likely require too much money and term. If the team were to trade a forward for defensive help, it would almost certainly be a non-core piece at or near the age of 30. Komarov is likely too integral to the team’s leadership and mentality to be shipped off for anything short of an overpayment. Fellow 2018 UFAs Tyler Bozak and James van Riemsdyk are the obvious candidates for movement, with van Reimsdyk more likely to attract attention due to his greater goal-scoring prowess.
Chicago’s Impending Struggle To Be Cap Compliant
Chicago Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman has had the uncanny ability for years now to somehow find a way to squeeze his uber-talented rosters under the NHL salary cap. Bowman’s willingness to trade or let walk valued players with high-priced contracts only to replace them to the same effect with affordable veterans and young players has enabled the team to become the NHL’s dynasty franchise over the last decade. However, heading into 2017-18, has Bowman finally put himself in a position that he can’t get out of?
The NHL’s salary cap limit for next season has not yet been decided, but early indications are that it could remain flat or rise only a minimal amount. Based on 2016-17’s $73MM ceiling, the Chicago Blackhawks would be more than $4.5MM over the cap if the season started today (via CapFriendly). That total includes a total of 13 forwards, seven defenseman, and two goalies, ten of which will make under $1MM next season. What it doesn’t include is new contracts for restricted free agents Dennis Rasmussen and Tomas Jurco, the possibility of bringing back veteran defenseman Brian Campbell, or the Blackhawk’s major need for a backup goalie, which will only off-set the cap by Jeff Glass‘ $600K contract.
Of course, Chicago does have some assistance this off-season in the form of the Expansion Draft, in which they will lose someone’s cap hit. The team certainly hopes that that cap hit is from Marcus Kruger. Kruger has played an important role for the Blackhawks as a two-way specialist and reliable third-line center, but at over $3MM annually, he’s just not affordable. Rumor has it that the team is willing to move picks and players if it means that the Vegas Golden Knights will select Kruger, but there is no guarantee that Vegas will take the bait. Defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk has been offered up as a companion to Kruger for the Knights, which at $825K for a top-four defenseman would be a major loss for Chicago. However, if the Blackhawks want to protect forwards like Ryan Hartman or Richard Panik in the Expansion Draft, they currently would have no choice but to expose van Riemsdyk. Thus, the team really lacks the leverage to command any deal where the Knights take Kruger to get van Riemsdyk and such a deal may not even come to fruition. Chicago will do all it can, expansion-wise or not, to move Kruger, but it’s far from a done deal.
Even if they are successful in moving Kruger, the Chicago Sun Times’ Mark Lazerus opines that this may not be enough if the cap doesn’t go up significantly; and he’s not alone. Lazerus states that there is rampant speculation that the team may be forced to move a bigger name than Kruger to become cap compliant. Kruger’s salary would (currently) still leave the Blackhawks in the red and even he and van Riemsdyk wouldn’t do it. Bowman could use roster management to get under, but it would leave the team with little to no flexibility in the free agent market and even for in-season call-ups and demotions. Instead, one of Chicago’s core players might need to move. Lazerus knows that neither Brent Seabrook or Artem Anisimov have been asked to waive their No-Movement clauses to be dealt elsewhere and it’s hard to imagine the team trading many of their other No-Movement players like Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, or Corey Crawford. Marian Hossa may as well be immovable as well, given that the 38-year-old has four years left on his contract at $5.275MM per. That leaves defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson, who Lazerus believes could very well end up on the move. Hjalmarsson is the only high-priced player on the roster without a true No-Movement clause, as he has a limited No-Trade in which he can submit a 10-team list of destinations. This gives the team some flexibility to make a move they couldn’t with the others barring a waiver. Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit, which alone is insufficient, but in addition to Kruger and possibly others would get the Blackhawks where they need to be.
If it potentially takes Hjalmarsson, Kruger, and van Riemsdyk – two of Chicago’s top-four defenseman and a key penalty killer – along with goalie Scott Darling, already a cap casualty this off-season, to get under the salary cap for next season, is Bowman’s system really still working? Perhaps more than any other team in the NHL, Chicago is hoping for an unexpected bump in the salary cap for 2017-18. If that doesn’t happen, the Expansion Draft could just be the beginning of the Blackhawk’s shedding of key players this summer.
NHL Notes: Seabrook, Keith, Katchouk
Could the Chicago Blackhawks be heading in the wrong direction? That’s what Chicago Sun-Times’ Mark Potash suggests as he analyzes the failures of a quick playoff exit to the Nashville Predators this season. The writer speculates that general manager Stan Bowman has his work cut out for him. The team is loaded with No Movement Clauses and veterans wherever you look and the GM must look at his aging defense.
Brent Seabrook‘s decline this year was noticeable. Potash claims the 32-year-old defender has lost a step on defense and his offense has declined as well. After a season in which he 14 goals in 2015-16, that number dropped to three goals this past year. Add to the fact that Seabrook only signed his 8-year, $55MM contract a year ago, the Blackhawks have to hope the blueliner can bounce back with a strong season next year. “I’ve got to be better. But I feel like I’ve got a lot of hockey left in me and a lot of good years ahead of me,” Seabrook said. “This summer’s going to be a tough summer. It’s going to be a battle to get ready to go and try and have a better year next year.”
Duncan Keith is another defender who struggled to stop the speed of the Predators in the playoffs. The 33-year-old still had a good year after scoring six goals and 45 assists, but he’s locked in until the 2022-23 season. “I want to have a good summer of training,” Keith said, “and doing my best to get to a point where I feel like when you train hard, you get confidence from that too your body feels good and you feel strong. That’s going to be my focus. I know I could have played better. I’m obviously a big part of this team, so when I don’t play my best, it’s going to affect my team. I know I need a good summer of training and I’ll be ready to do.”
If neither blueliner can bounce back, the Blackhawks will be weighed down by two large contracts for the very far future.
Potash also writes that Bowman must get center Jonathan Toews a proper power forward to work with. Toews in the three years previous teamed up with Brandon Saad, Bryan Bickell or Marian Hossa, who aided his success on the ice. With Saad and Bickell gone and Hossa’s demotion to the third line, Toews is struggling to score goals again, as he hasn’t scored one 5-on-5 goal in his last 11 playoff games.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have signed their 2016 second-round pick Boris Katchouk to a three-year entry level contract today. The 6-foot-1 forward has played for the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds in the Ontario Hockey League for the past three years, finishing a strong 2016-17 season in which he tallied 35 goals, 64 points and 48 penalty minutes. The 44th overall pick in the last draft finished second on his team in goals, and third in points. Katchouk has appeared in 141 OHL games.
“Completely Disappointed” Blackhawks Clean Out Lockers
Hands up if you predicted the Chicago Blackhawks would be involved in a sweep during the post-season. Now, keep your hand up if you thought it would be them getting swept.
The Blackhawks cleaned out their lockers on Saturday morning after a disappointing end to a promising season. After a 109-point season, the first-seed Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games against the eighth-seed Nashville Predators.
Usually when teams are eliminated, we find out the injuries that key players were dealing with; famously, Patrice Bergeron played in the 2013 Stanley Cup Finals (vs the Blackhawks) with a separated shoulder, cartilage tear in his ribs, and a punctured lung. However, there have been no notable injuries revealed today. Per Chris Hine of the Chicago Tribune, coach Joel Quenneville said that a few “key guys” were dealing with minor injuries, including Artem Anisimov, who was battling limited mobility. At this point, no players will require off-season surgery, according to Mark Lazerus of the Sun-Times.
General Manager Stan Bowman called the early end to his club’s season a “complete failure” compared to their expectations. The sweep “completely overshadowed” the 50-win season; Bowman promised changes would be coming, but did say that Quenneville will be back as head coach, according to Lazerus. However, Hine reports that Quenneville doesn’t foresee any changes to his coaching staff. Bowman promised that he and Quenneville “are going to work together to make sure this never happens again.”
Roster-wise, the Blackhawks have a few notable players up for new contracts: Richard Panik, Michal Kempny, and Scott Darling are all pending free agents. Bowman refused to comment on their statuses while also not commenting on the possibility of any roster moves involving “core” players. Realistically, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Artemi Panarin, Duncan Keith, and Brent Seabrook are all un-tradable, either due to their importance to the club or the size of their contracts, or both. The one interesting name could be Corey Crawford; while the sweep is not his fault (the Blackhawks scored just three goals in four games), Bowman played coy when asked whether Crawford would be the starting goaltender next season. Per Hine, Bowman replied, “I’m not going to speculate on anything—who’s going to be here, who’s not going to be here.”
With the expansion draft upcoming and a few teams looking to move goaltenders, it could be difficult to find a taker for Crawford’s $6MM salary, especially at the likely asking price in a trade. Making that move would clear some significant cap space and allow them to keep Darling, who appears to be ready to take on a starting job. It would be the blockbuster of the summer. But as Bowman told Scott Powers of The Athletic, “We didn’t score any goals. It’s hard to win games when you get shutout.”
No matter what happens, it will be a long summer for a team that was expecting a long spring.
Cap Problems Loom – A Look Ahead For Chicago
The Chicago Blackhawks’ management will have to take a deep, long look in the mirror this off-season. Their core is locked up and in their primes. With an offense boasting Artemi Panarin, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, grizzled Marian Hossa, and a resurgent Artem Anisimov, there were many predictions around the league for Chicago to reclaim another cup. Instead, the comparatively deep lineup Nashville iced completely dominated Chicago, sending them packing in a 4 game sweep – the first ever time an “8th seed” has swept a “1 seed”.
This is an analysis of Chicago’s cap frustrations, and what has led to them.
Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane each account for $10.5 MM towards the team cap, and are both under contract until the 2022-23 season. With a cap ceiling that is expected to remain in the ballpark of its current $73 MM, this is a massive $21 MM, 28.8% of the team total. In past seasons, contributions from players on ELCs and cheap one-to-two year deals made this issue far less concerning. Success will do a lot to mask poor planning on management’s part.
Looking at their roster situation next year, the squad looks something like this (numbers represent $MM towards cap):
Nick Schmaltz (0.925) – Jonathan Toews (10.5) – Marian Hossa (5.275)
Artemi Panarin (6.0) – Artem Anisimov (4.550) – Patrick Kane (10.5)
Dennis Rasmussen (RFA) – Marcus Kruger (3.083) – Richard Panik (RFA)
Ryan Hartman (0.863) – Tanner Kero (0.750) – __________
*******
Nik Hjalmarsson (4.1) – Duncan Keith (5.538)
Brent Seabrook (6.875) – Trevor van Riemsdyk (0.825)
Michal Kempny (RFA) – Gustav Forsling (0.873)
************
Michal Roszival (0.650)
Corey Crawford (6.0)
_________
A few things to note: there are still 4 likely vacancies on this roster, and the team would probably prefer to have at least one more extra skater on hand for the season. Before the RFA contracts are negotiated, this comes to a total of $67.307 MM already spent. Brian Campbell and Johnny Oduya are not likely to return, considering the former’s price and the latter’s struggles. Roszival is not likely to be trusted with 7th defenseman duties. With Panik’s stellar season, he is nearly sure to command a sizable raise. The 26 year-old had what can only be described an incredibly over-achieving breakthrough – he notched 44 points, 22 of which were goals. The expectation should be that, even under team-friendly RFA negotiations, he will earn upwards of $2 MM, likely in the $2.5 MM range. Assuming the other two RFAs (Rasmussen and Kempny) receive somewhere around $1 MM each, this brings the grand total to $71.807 MM with at least 3 slots to fill, probably 4.
From here, Chicago could go one of two routes. They could try to fill out the remaining spots with the absolutely cheapest possible players, and hope they strike gold with another prospect or free agent. They went down this road last year, and one could reasonably assume they may not have liked the results. The other option would be to move a sizable contract out in the name of increased depth. A few options would be Seabrook or Hjalmarrson on the back-end, or perhaps Hossa up front. Although the captain’s relative cost efficiency is arguably not good, I don’t see a scenario where the Windy City management would be willing to move on from Toews. Anisimov’s play and chemistry with Kane at a cheap 2C price-tag make him unlikely to be moved, and Kruger was just signed to a cost-efficient deal.
It should be noted that if Chicago would be (for whatever reason) unable to move a contract, they could opt to leave a player unprotected for Vegas to take. This is not a likely scenario, however. Many believe that van Riemsdyk will be left unprotected, but exposing such a cheap and effective youngster seems counter-productive at this point. The problem with ditching Seabrook or Hjalmarrson is that it opens up a huge hole that is not likely to be filled much cheaper – top 4 defensemen don’t come cheap, especially considering this year’s limited UFA class. Hossa, it should be noted, has a No Movement Clause, which would severely complicate any sort of transaction involving the veteran winger.
Decisions lie aheaad for Chicago management, and the decisions may be even tougher than they were after their Cup win in 2010. That off-season, they were forced into moving Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, and Kris Versteeg. Those tough decisions laid the groundwork for their next two titles. This is the cost of success in the post-cap era, and Chicago will again need to make sacrifices if they wish to see any more.
Morning Notes: Ritchie, Bjork, Lockout
The Anaheim Ducks may lose a young forward for the start of their playoff series, as Nick Ritchie has a hearing with the Department of Player Safety this afternoon to determine his fate. Ritchie attacked Michal Rozsival in their game last night after the Blackhawks’ defender sent Corey Perry to the ice. Whether the league gives him just the one remaining game in the regular season, or a match in the playoffs is yet to be seen.
Recently, Micheal Haley received just a one-game ban for a similar incident though he actually struck Calle Jarnkrok when the Predators forward wasn’t even looking. In this instance, Rozsival is looking straight at Ritchie, despite not protecting himself. The Ducks forward does not have a history of supplemental discipline with the league, though was suspended multiple times during his stint in junior hockey with the Peterborough Petes. Hopefully for Ducks fans, the league hands out the same punishment it gave Haley.
- Fluto Shinzawa of the Boston Globe opines that the NHL’s Olympic decision could have an effect on whether or not the team can get Anders Bjork to leave school early now that Notre Dame’s dream season has come to an end. The team’s leading scorer could go back to school for one year, likely play for Team USA in the Olympics—he was born in Wisconsin—and then become an unrestricted free agent next August and decide on his NHL future. For what it’s worth, Bjork told Shinzawa’s colleague at the Globe John Connolly yesterday that he hadn’t really thought about what to do after this season yet, as he was still focused on the NCAA tournament. Notre Dame was eliminated last night at the hands of the powerhouse University of Denver 6-1.
- Jonathan Toews spoke with Stephen Whyno of the Associated Press for an excellent piece surrounding the possibility of another lockout looming after the tension of the Olympic decision. The NHL and NHLPA are clearly not on the same page at this point, and Toews wouldn’t be surprised to see another work stoppage. September 15th of 2019 is the month that should be circled on all of our calandars, as that is when the players could opt out of the current agreement and terminate the current CBA. The league has an opt out two weeks earlier, but with them offering the Olympics for an extension, it would be unlikely to see them use the clause.