Johnny Gaudreau

With Calgary having another disappointing season, there is an expectation of change coming for the Flames.  One of the players speculated to be in play is winger Johnny Gaudreau but Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported in his latest 31 Thoughts column that extension talks have gotten underway with the 27-year-old who is set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer without a new deal in place.

It has been a quiet couple of seasons for Gaudreau.  Back in 2018-19, he put up 99 points, his second straight year of averaging over a point per game.  There was a significant drop-off in 2019-20 to 58 points (with only losing a dozen games to the pandemic-shortened campaign) and there wasn’t much of a rebound this season; his 49 points in 56 games yielded slightly better per-game numbers but still nowhere near what they were just two years ago.  That performance is what put him at the forefront of trade speculation but Gaudreau has indicated in the past that he’d like to remain with Calgary.

There are two contractual elements to consider for Gaudreau.  The first is that he has considerable trade protection that is going to kick in once the new calendar year begins on July 28th (which is also the earliest day an extension could be signed).  Right now, he doesn’t have the ability to block a trade to any team.  Come the 28th, that changes to just five teams that he’s allowed to be traded to without his consent.  If there is any consideration being given to trading him if a new deal can’t be reached, it stands to reason that the 28th serves as a soft deadline for that to happen as moving him gets much tougher afterwards.

The second is the price tag.  At $6.75MM, Gaudreau will likely be looking for an increase to forego a shot at free agency.  He was the benchmark contract for Calgary forwards before Matthew Tkachuk got $7MM on his bridge deal and it’s likely that Gaudreau will be seeking a bit more than that considering he has outperformed Tkachuk in terms of production for most of their careers.  But with the drop off in scoring the last couple of seasons, is that something that Calgary GM Brad Treliving will be willing to do?  If this isn’t a blip but rather a sign of things to come, that type of financial commitment to someone whose numbers are declining isn’t really justifiable either.

It’s hard to see Calgary bringing back the same core as it has struggled in recent years, not making it out of the first round in the last six years.  Accordingly, a key piece or two will probably be on the move.  Knowing the trade protection that is on the horizon, if the Flames and Gaudreau can’t work out a new deal in the coming weeks, expect the trade speculation to quickly intensify.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

In 2016, when Johnny Gaudreau was approaching the end of his entry-level contract, he was asked about playing for the Calgary Flames long-term. His answer then included the idea that he could play his “whole career” in Calgary, given the support of the organization and the fan base. Gaudreau would sign a six-year, $40.5MM contract a few months later, buying up many of his prime years in the league. That refrain of staying in Calgary his entire career was echoed throughout the first several seasons of the deal and now, as he approaches the last year of the contract, he was asked again.

If [Brad Treliving] and the owners are happy with the way I’ve played here the past six, seven years. It’s something we can figure out this upcoming summer, I’d love to do that. I love the city of Calgary. I love playing here. I don’t think I’ve ever once said I haven’t wanted to be here, the guys in the locker room are great in there. I’ve always enjoyed my time here. 

Gaudreau will be eligible to sign an extension this summer when his contract officially has just one year remaining, and Flames GM Brad Treliving confirmed to reporters including Hailey Salvian of The Athletic that the forward has expressed his desire to stay in Calgary. Still, there will be speculation (as there is almost every offseason) that the Flames are in need of a refresh and moving out some of their core pieces would be the start.

The 27-year-old Gaudreau recorded 49 points in 56 games this season including 19 goals, a nice bounce-back from the 18-goal campaign he put up a year ago. He still hasn’t been able to come close to that 36-goal, 99-point season in 2018-19 that led him to finish fourth in Hart Trophy voting, but there’s no doubt he’s still one of Calgary’s most important forwards.

The question that has always surrounded the diminutive Gaudreau, is whether he can perform in the playoffs when the game usually gets more physical. While he does have 19 points in 30 career postseason games, most of that production has come on the powerplay. In fact, he has scored just three even-strength goals in those playoff games, often a contributing factor to the Flames’ early exits.

There is of course the cost to worry about as well. The Flames spent big money in the 2020 offseason when they brought in Jacob Markstrom and Chris Tanev, with the former struggling to perform under the new deal. Markstrom did suffer a concussion this season according to Treliving, but recorded just a .904 save percentage in 43 appearances and led the league in losses. The Flames now have close to $42MM already committed to just eight players in the 2022-23 season when any new deal for Gaudreau would kick in, meaning they’ll have to carefully navigate any extension talks in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images