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Snapshots: Methot, Karlsson, Marchessault

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The Ottawa Senators were put in a rough predicament when Dion Phaneuf turned down the team’s request to waive his no-trade clause. The organization is very high on Cody Ceci, and considering the depth of forwards they needed to protect, they were forced to expose Marc Methot. Many mock drafts have the veteran defender headed to Vegas, including our own. Some have even contemplated whether Methot could find himself in a captaincy position in Nevada. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun explains how difficult a decision that was for Pierre Dorion and his staff, and how they tried to trade Phaneuf up until the last minute. Ottawa could theoretically try to bribe Vegas with the #28 pick, but considering that the team only has 4 picks overall, that seems unlikely. The more probable scenario is that Ottawa merely takes the blow and moves on.

  • The Blue Jackets truly want to hang onto their youngest talents, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. They are supposedly surrendering their 1st round selection to Vegas in order to keep Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo. What makes nearly no sense is the apparent fact that this deal also warns the Knights off of veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Johnson is an average defender, and with the rise of Zach Werenski and others he doesn’t seem to be a pivotal piece any longer. Vegas will probably choose William Karlsson or Ryan Murray as low-risk claims and run away happy from this deal. The valuation of a first-rounder is probably the lowest in ages, and the anxiety surrounding the protection lists has seemingly reduced their value even further.
  • Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel has Jonathan Marchessault headed to Vegas, based on the reports he’s been hearing. Defenders Jason Demers and young forward Reilly Smith are also available as high-value options for the Knights. According to Marchessault himself in an interview on TVA Sports, Tallon wasn’t able to negotiate a protection deal with Vegas. He was certainly being shopped in the lead up to Sunday. The entire Florida protection list was confusing, but Marchessault’s exposure was a truly unforced error by GM Dale Tallon. The 30-goal scorer will almost certainly find a home in Vegas’ top six, and the loss of this quality of player for absolutely nothing is perplexing the entire league. It’s certainly possible Marchessault has a down year after a career one, but asset management was completely blown in this case, and Vegas looks to reap that reward.

Keith Yandle, Dion Phaneuf Asked To Waive No-Movement Clauses

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With the Expansion Draft fast approaching, many players are expected to be approached themselves about waiving the No-Movement clauses attached to their contracts as their teams look to strategically navigate the strict expansion process. In his weekly “30 Thoughts” article posted this afternoon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman states that he has heard that two big-name defenseman, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle, have already been asked for such a waiver by their respective teams.

The news on Phaneuf is not unexepected; in fact many people have suspected all season long that the Ottawa Senators may ask the veteran to waive his No-Movement clause. The Senators have too much forward depth to apply the eight-skater protection scheme for the Expansion Draft and must instead use the 7-3 scheme. Thus, only three Ottawa defenseman can be protected. All-world blue liner Erik Karlsson is an obvious lock and presumably the other two spots would go to shutdown two-way man Marc Methot and young Cody Ceci if Phaneuf does choose to waive. If he doesn’t, the Sens would face a difficult choice between the two or would be forced into striking a trade over the next week. Phaneuf’s situation is interesting in that he actually outscored Ceci and Methot combined in 2016-17 and he has was more or less a complete success in his first full season in Ottawa, capped off by a strong playoff. The ideal scenario for Ottawa is to retain all three defenseman, but after the season that Phaneuf had, as well as his status as a well-known player, it could entice the Golden Knights and a waiver could mean the Senators end up losing their second-best defenseman. On the other hand, exposing Ceci, and to some extent Methot, would almost ensure losing either of them as well.

The situation with Yandle is a much bigger story. The Florida Panthers acquired Yandle’s negotiating rights from the New York Rangers around this time last year and inked him to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract. Yandle bypassed free agency and potentially more money to become the long-term partner of Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad and, at age 30, seemed poised to be a Panther for the rest of his career. Now it seems that might not be true. After just one year, Florida appears open to moving on from Yandle. The Panthers face a difficult expansion scenario on defense with, like the Senators, too many promising forwards to protect four defenseman. Even if they could, Florida would really like to protect five: Ekblad, Yandle, Jason Demers, another 2016 free agency splurge, and young play-makers Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. All five defenseman meet the number of games needed (40 this past season or 70 over the past two seasons) to qualify for the one-defenseman exposure quota, but Petrovic and Pysyk are impending restricted free agents and the other half of the exposure criteria is term remaining on a contract. Thus, only Ekblad, Yandle, or Demers could fill the quota, unless Petrovic, Pysyk, or Jakub Kindl were re-signed just to be exposed. With Ekblad untouchable and Yandle having a No-Movement clause, at this time Demers is the only choice to be the sacrificial lamb. Vegas will surely have some interest in the 28-year-old righty, whether it be to lead their own defense or to flip to another suitor. However, by asking Yandle to waive his clause, it appears that Florida is instead leaning toward keeping Demers to themselves. Why? In his first season with Florida, Yandle did play in all 82 games and recorded 41 points, a good season by any measure, but it was in fact the worst production of any full season to date for the 11-year veteran. The Panthers may be worried that, at 30-years-old, Yandle is already on the decline, while Demers and his cap hit of nearly $2MM less for four more years may be a better investment. It will be interesting to see whether Yandle indeed waives his clause or not, but make no mistake: like Demers, if Yandle is exposed he will be an easy choice for Vegas to select to either highlight their blue line or trade to a contender.

Expansion Primer: Florida Panthers

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Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

After cracking 100 points and winning the Atlantic Division in 2015-16, injuries and overall under-performance sent the Panthers tumbling back to Earth in 2016-17. Florida finished with over 20 points less, at 81, good enough for sixth in the division and a top-ten draft slot. Yet, hopes remain high in Sunrise, FL as the Panthers are still a team built around young stars that has just begun to reach its potential. With Huberdeau, Trochek, Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, and Matheson forming a core group under 25 with top prospects like forwards Henrik Borgstrom and Adam Mascherin and goalie Sam Montembeault still on the way, Florida only has to worry about adding complementary pieces to a talented young group.

Yet, the shadow of the Expansion Draft still looms large over the Panthers. With so many good, young players under contract, the expansion process will not be easy for the Cats. They may be able to protect their best young players, but they are nearly guaranteed to lose a solid complementary veteran.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Jussi Jokinen, Derek MacKenzie, Colton Sceviour, Jonathan Marchessault, Steven Hodges, Michael Sgarbossa, Graham Black

Defense
Keith Yandle (NMC), Aaron Ekblad, Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, Mark Pysyk, MacKenzie Weegar, Reece Scarlett

Goaltender
Roberto Luongo, James Reimer

Notable Exemptions

Jared McCann, Denis Malgin, Michael Matheson, Ian McCoshen

Key Decisions

The Panthers don’t have an easy decision to make at any position group. They face the risk of losing a prominent forward, defenseman, or goalie if they don’t read the Vegas Golden Knights correctly. Perhaps the biggest name who may be left unprotected in net: potential future Hall of Fame goalie Roberto Luongo. Many were surprised when the Panthers brought back Luongo, and with him the remainder of a 12-year, $64MM contract, in 2014. Even more were surprised when, nonetheless, Florida signed James Reimer to a five-year, $17MM contract on July 1st of last year. That move seems like it has partly been leading up to this point. While Luongo and Reimer each started 39 games in 2016-17 with very similar records, Reimer had the edge on Luongo in performance statistics. While this was their first season sharing the net, it is now the second season in a row in which Reimer has outplayed Luongo. It seems very unlikely that Florida will choose to protect the 38-year-old Luongo, who is under contract at $5.33MM per year until the age of 43, over the 29-year-old Reimer, with a more reasonable $3.4MM cap hit over that same span of time. Luongo will thus likely be one of the biggest names under contract and available to Vegas, but don’t expect a new team to take on that contract. Should they expose Reimer instead, the chances are much higher that the Knights will select a Panther goalie, but chances are both keepers are back in Florida next year regardless.

Among the forward corps, there is a lot to sort out. To get the easy ones out of the way, young scorers Jonathan Huberdeau, Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov, and Nick Bjugstad are almost surely safe. Assuming the Panthers go with the 7/3 scheme, that leaves them with three forwards left to protect. If they do go 8-skaters, then those four would represent all the protected forwards. After a breakout campaign in which he led the Panthers with 30 goals, 26-year-old Jonathan Marchessault is also highly likely to be protected. This leaves just two spots left for four valuable veteran forwards: Reilly Smith, Jussi Jokinen, Colton Sceviour, and captain Derek MacKenzie. Luckily for the Panthers, all four meet the qualifications (having played 70 games over the last two seasons or 40 games last season and be under contract) to meet the two-forward quota, so whoever the GM Dale Tallon wants he can have without having to consider other expansion criteria. With the free agent status of Jaromir Jagr up in the air, the leadership value of Jokinen and MacKenzie must be considered by a young Florida team. However, MacKenzie has not scored more than 20 points in a season since 2010-11 and is likely not of interest to Vegas and can be left unprotected. So who of Jokinen, Smith, and Sceviour will join him in the Draft? The 25-year-old Smith has the best chance to be the best producer for the longest amount of time in Florida. This also could be a way for the Panthers to dump the five-year, $25MM extension they signed him to last summer before it even begins. As he did with the Boston Bruins, Smith had a great first season with Florida in 2015-16, but just as he did in Boston, Smith fell off significantly in year two. The Panthers will have to re-sign Bjugstad and Marchessault and give non-entry level deals to Denis Malgin, Jared McCann, and others before that contract expires. Can they afford the weight of a $5MM annual cap hit for an average player? If Smith has scared them off, expect them to expose him and hope Vegas takes the risk. If not, it comes down to Jokinen and Sceviour. Again, the 33-year-old Jokinen has the leadership and experience and is just one year removed from a 60-point season. Sceviour can’t boast that kind of career production, but at $950K to Jokinen’s $4MM and Smith’s $5MM, he gets the Panthers more bang for their buck.

Defense is the real nightmare for Florida. Keith Yandle’s No-Movement Clause makes him automatically protected, though he would be protected regardless after signing a seven-year deal last year that began with a nice 41-point season. Aaron Ekblad is also as close to a sure thing as their is in the Expansion Draft as far as protection. The 2015 Calder Trophy-winner struggled a bit last season, but is still a top pair defenseman at just 21 years old. That leaves defensive spot left in the 7/3 scheme and three stalwart defeseman to choose from: Jason Demers, Alex Petrovic, and Mark Pysyk. Unfortunately, unless circumstance change, Demers is out of the equation. With Yandle and Ekblad protected and Petrovic and Pysyk as restricted free agents, Demers is the only defenseman on the roster who can meet the 70-40 quota. It is possible for Florida to re-sign and expose Petrovic, Pysyk, or impending unrestricted free agent Jakub Kindl and then protect Demers, but their hesitation to do so yet seems to imply that they won’t be. Thus, Demers will be exposed and stands a very high chance of playing in Vegas next season. As for Petrovic verus Pysyk, both are similar in age and have great ability, but little to show for it on the score sheet early in their careers. The Panthers brass know best which 25-year-old fits best on the team, and likely both will remain in Florida, but don’t be surprised if they give the homegrown talent Petrovic the nod.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F/3D/1G

Forwards

Jonathan Huberdeau
Vincent Trocheck
Aleksander Barkov
Nick Bjugstad
Jonathan Marchessault
Jussi Jokinen
Colton Sceviour

Defensemen

Keith Yandle (NMC)
Aaron Ekblad
Alex Petrovic

Goalie

James Reimer

Every team has a few risks that they must take in the Expansion Draft. As extraordinarily unlikely as it is, losing Luongo would be a blow and would cause the Panthers to have to change their off-season priorities to focus on helping Reimer in net. Smith being selected could come back to bite them if his $25MM deal pays off in Vegas. Being stripped of their captain would be rough on the locker room and they will likely hold out hope that there is no interest in MacKenzie. Having Pysyk taken from them after he was the centerpiece of last summer’s Dmitry Kulikov trade would feel like a waste.

So what sets Florida apart? Exposing Demers barely qualifies as a risk. The 28-year-old was one of the prizes of free agency last summer and just finished the first season of a relatively affordable five-year, $22.5MM deal. He scored 28 points this season, the second best campaign of his career and a level of production closer to that of his time back with the San Jose Sharks. He also has seen a steady climb in shooting percentage as the years have gone on and could easily break double digits next season, regardless of where he plays. However, the best thing about Demers for the Golden Knights is that he is a safe pick. He can lead their defense, can easily play 20+ minutes per night, can hit and block shots, and is signed long-term, meaning he can become a franchise player and potentially the team’s first captain. Unless the Panthers go 8-skaters or extend a current qualifying defenseman to then protect Demers, they face a real risk of losing a very solid player for nothing after just one year.

Florida Panthers’ Potential Targets

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The Florida Panthers were expected to do far better this past season than they ultimately did. Not unlike their Floridian rivals, the Tampa Bay Lightning, many were looking to this franchise to dominate a week Atlantic division. Looking back on a season with a coaching change, losing streaks, an lots of turmoil, how does the team recover and adjust their roster going forward?

Florida’s offensive core as of this moment consists of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Vincent Trocheck, with Nick Bjugstad, Reilly Smith, and the surprising Jonathan Marchessault feeling content in their roles. Their defensive core is essentially just Aaron Ekblad, with a decent if unremarkable group surrounding him. Keith Yandle has looked adequate but nowhere near worth his $6.35 MM contract, locked in until 2023. Unfortunately, that contract looks like an albatross that is there to stay. Jason Demers was solid if unremarkable, and the group as a whole struggled with consistency. With Thomas Vanek likely to look for a payday elsewhere, a declining Jaromir Jagr, and a brutal internal cap, it bodes questioning whether Florida will be able to compete for a playoff spot next season. Their youngsters performed above offensive expectations, with the notable exception of Huberdeau. Barkov, Trocheck, and Marchessault all broke 50 points. Yet the team still finished 14 points out of the playoffs, giving up .46 more goals than they scored in an average 60 minute game.

Florida needs to spend a moderate amount of money to acquire solid 3rd-line point producers. Minor league callups can fill the gaps on the fourth line to an extent, but rolling with only two viable offensive forward groups is a recipe for disaster in today’s NHL. They absolutely need a game-changer up front to provide run support for the young core. They might also look to bolster their D. Here are some potential targets the Panthers should consider for 2017-18, instead of spending precious dollars on the fading Jagr:

F – Ilya Kovalchuk – UFA/KHL

As mentioned by colleague Holger Stolzenberg, Ilya Kovalchuk is a definite possibility for Florida. They have the cap space to accomodate the sort of money he will be looking for, and they have a talented young group that could easily compete for a playoff run given the right moves. There are few players more dynamic with the puck on their stick than Kovalchuk. His savvy and remarkably consistent point production would be tailor made for the Panthers team in need of a true #1 threat as Barkov continues to progress. Jagr is that no longer, but replacing his insight and experience would be difficult to do. Kovalchuk hits all the checks in terms of need for Florida, and would help launch them back into the playoff conversation single-handedly.

D – Dmitry Kulikov – UFA

Kulikov had an absolutely awful season for the Buffalo Sabres, but he would be a very cheap reclamation project for his old stomping ground. He didn’t exit the Panthers with a good performance, either, posting only 17 points in 2015-16 and a terrible 46.8 Corsi For Percentage. Kulikov had one year remaining with the Sabres at $4.3 MMl, and posted a 5 points and a -26 through 47 games. And yet, he was part of the group that propelled the team into the post-season and a Game 7 that could’ve gone either way. He’s a smooth skating 26 year-old defenseman who moves the puck with a decent offensive hockey IQ. He makes mistakes in his own zone, but he pushed the pace of the game in a way that is difficult to replace. His contract would be dirt-cheap and there is always the possibility he finds his groove back in the Sunshine State.

F – Matt Duchene – Colorado Avalanche

Matt Duchene is another talented player who had a truly down year. Duchene was rumored to be moved for months, but come deadline, GM Joe Sakic didn’t find the pieces he was looking for. In Florida, there is a definite fit if the Panthers are willing to take the risk. They have the defensive pieces the Avalanche would want in return, and Duchene would provide another dynamic offensive force to a struggling offense. Sakic is almost certain to pull the trigger eventually, so the Panthers GM will simply need to be persistent. Duchene can set up plays with the best of them when he is on his game. His speed and infectious energy would also fit in well with the group of youngsters down south.

F – Justin WIlliams – UFA

WIlliams is almost certain to be a top commodity in a weak UFA class. However, his wealth of playoff experience would come in quite handy for this team and hasn’t showed signs of slowing down. He would add an element of grit to the lineup, as well, rounding out their offense. He would be a wonderful mentor for the likes of Barkov, Trochec, and oothers. He can slot up and down the roster and is practically a lock to score at least 20 goals as a 35 year-old. If the Panthers find their way into the first round, a player of his mold would be certainly welcome in close contests. The main obstacle to this getting done is of course the price, which may prove too steep for a team in rebuild, low-cost mode. He also could want term at this stage of his playing career, and that could be a risky proposal if longer than 2 or 3 years.

Team Canada Names Eighteen Players To World Championship Squad

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With the World Championships beginning in just a few weeks Team Canada has released their first wave of players, announcing 18 names for the upcoming tournament. Five players are returning from the 2016 gold medal team: Calvin Pickard, Michael Matheson, Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly and Mark Scheifele. The full roster so far is as follows:

Eric Comrie (Winnipeg Jets)
Calvin Pickard (Colorado Avalanche)

Tyson Barrie (Colorado Avalanche)
Calvin de Haan (New York Islanders)
Jason Demers (Florida Panthers)
Michael Matheson (Florida Panthers)
Josh Morrissey (Winnipeg Jets)

Sean Couturier (Philadelphia Flyers)
Matt Duchene (Colorado Avalanche)
Claude Giroux (Philadelphia Flyers
Alex Killorn (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Travis Konecny (Philadelphia Flyers)
Ryan O’Reilly (Buffalo Sabres)
Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche)
Brayden Point (Tampa Bay Lightning)
Mark Scheifele (Winnipeg Jets)
Wayne Simmonds (Philadelphia Flyers)
Jeff Skinner (Carolina Hurricanes)

The tournament will start on May 5th for Canada with their first game coming against the Czech Republic, and will be held in Paris, France and Cologne, Germany. The coaching staff will be made up of Jon Cooper (Tampa Bay Lightning), Gerard Gallant (Vegas Golden Knights), Dave Hakstol (Philadelphia Flyers) and Dave King.

Dallas Stars Sign Gavin Bayreuther

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Late last night, the Dallas Stars announced that they had won out in their battle with the Buffalo Sabres for the right to sign Gavin Bayreuther. The St. Lawrence University defenseman was a free agent and was considering the two teams up until yesterday. The two sides have come to an agreement and will release details today.

Bayreuther was considered one of the top free agents available from the college ranks this year, and for good reason. The 22-year old defenseman has put up 29 points in two straight seasons and generally been a dominant presence on the St. Lawrence blue line for all four years. He’ll go down as the second highest scoring defenseman in school history, behind only Daniel Laperriere, a former St. Louis Blues draft pick and NHL player.

The 6’1″, 195-lbs Bayreuther has much of what any NHL team would be looking for in a defensive prospect; great first pass, solid decision making, hard shot from the point. It’s mostly his positioning and one-on-one battles that need work, and will be challenged at the next level. With some solid professional coaching, he could turn into a nice all-around defenseman.

For the Stars, adding another prospect to their defensive pool can’t hurt as they look to rebuild what has been a shattered blue line. The team has watched Alex Goligoski, Jason Demers, Kris Russell, Johnny Oduya, Jordie Benn, Jyrki Jokipakka and Trevor Daley all leave one way or another over the past couple of years, leaving them with a makeshift lineup behind the stalwart John Klingberg. Now with the youth of Bayreuther, Stephen Johns, Esa Lindell, Julius Honka, Patrik Nemeth and Dillon Heatherington they’ll be able to fill that pipeline once again.

While this signing doesn’t fix everything there is wrong with the Stars—as no one signing would—it does take another step in the right direction for a team that was in first place as recently as last year. We’ll now see how active they are heading into the expansion draft, where they will have several key decisions to make.

Atlantic Division Notes: Sabres, Erne, Gourde, Panthers

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Entering the 2016-17 season, the Buffalo Sabres were considered by some as a dark horse playoff contender after the team added top-six winger Kyle Okposo in free agency and defenseman Dmitry Kulikov via trade last summer. However, a preseason ankle injury shelved sophomore center Jack Eichel for the first 21 games of the season and the team stumbled to a 7 – 9 – 5 mark in his absence. The team’s defense has also contributed to Buffalo’s struggles and unfortunately for the Sabres, there may not be much help on the way next summer, according to John Vogl of The Buffalo News.

Vogl examines the list of potential UFA defenders, a list which happens to include current Sabres Kulikov and Cody Franson, and aside from Kevin Shattenkirk and perhaps Karl Alzner, the scribe doesn’t see free agency as presenting a solution to Buffalo’s blue line woes. That means in all likelihood the Sabres will have to go the trade route in order to address their defensive shortcomings. Naturally, any deal to add a defenseman will likely cost the team a key forward and would essentially represent an example of “robbing Peter to pay Paul.”

Elsewhere in the Atlantic:

  • We touched earlier on the injury issues impacting the Tampa Bay Lightning, but for the glass half full crowd, the absences of Tyler Johnson, Vladislav Namestnikov and Cedric Paquette offer opportunities for young players to step into more prominent roles and show the team’s coaching staff and management team what they are capable of at the NHL level. As Bryan Burns, NHL.com’s Tampa Bay Lightning contributor writes, the early beneficiaries of extra ice time and responsibility in Tampa are rookies Adam Erne and Yanni Gourde. As Burns notes, Gourde filled in as the team’s second line pivot Thursday night, recording a career-high 16:35 of ice time and registering the second point of his NHL career. Erne saw better than 14 minutes and even got some time on the power play. With Tampa Bay wrapping up a disappointing campaign, it’s quite possible the the team continues to give opportunities to some of its young talent as the front office begins to hatch its offseason strategy.
  • Last night’s 7 – 4 loss to Minnesota leaves Florida six points out of the second and final Eastern Conference wild card slot with just 16 games remaining in their season and with four teams to leapfrog in the standings. As Adam Gretz of Pro Hockey Talk writes, time is running out on the Panthers and barring a strong finish it appears Florida won’t be making their second straight postseason appearance. Missing the playoffs would represent a disappointing outcome for a team that was particularly aggressive in the offseason trying to build upon last year’s success. Florida acquired the rights to Keith Yandle and then inked the skilled puck-moving defender to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract extension. They signed Jason Demers as a free agent and traded for Mark Pysyk to further bolster their blue line. The Panthers also made smart under-the-radar signing, adding Jonathan Marchessault via free agency. The diminutive winger has registered a 20-goal, 39-point campaign for Florida. Yet all of those additions will be in vain unless the Panthers can close out on a hot streak and somehow sneak into the playoffs and that possibility is fading more and more with each passing day.

The Disastrous Duty Of Drafting Defensemen

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In professional sports, there is an oft-quoted saying that suggests that “defense wins championships”. It’s no surprise that in the NHL, the best of the best are getting extensions like Aaron Ekblad (8 years, $60MM) and Victor Hedman (8 years, $63MM). They’re valuable assets in a league that doesn’t have enough capable defenders.

Back in the summer, we looked at the increasing value of right-handed defensemen, with players like Jason Demers (5 years, $22.5MM), Ben Lovejoy (3 years $8MM) and Roman Polak (1 year, $2.25MM) all getting contracts that seemed expensive for their on-ice value.

Perhaps it’s not just the right-handed ones though. Prices for defensemen are skyrocketing on both the open market and in trade negotiations, and it’s because even though teams want to draft and develop their own blueliners, it’s incredibly difficult to do so.

In the 2007 entry draft, there were 60 defensemen selected and only 13 of them have played more than 200 NHL games. Even that group includes players like Keaton Ellerby, Ian Cole and Yannick Weber who would not inspire much confidence at the top of anyone’s depth chart (apologies to Cole, who is having a fine season in Pittsburgh).

In comparison this is actually a fairly good draft, as in 2006 just six out of the 65 defensemen chose have crossed that 200 games threshold. While 2006 is perhaps the most stark example, as Erik Johnson (drafted first overall) is the only high-end defenseman in the entire draft – his competition for that title are the likes of Andrew MacDonald, Jeff Petry and Mike Weber.

Drafting defensemen is even more of a crap shoot, as often they develop later than forwards and rely more on experience and positioning than raw skill. In 2006, eight were taken in the first round and only Johnson is still in the NHL. Ty Wishart, Bobby Sanguinetti and Chris Summers highlight the rest of the round.

This past draft nine defenders were taken in the first round, with Jakob Chychrun in Arizona and a three-game taste from Montreal’s Mikhail Sergachev being the only forays into the NHL so far. Obviously, it’s much too early to tell whether any of these will be long-term options, but the past seems to say that many won’t.

For teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs or Edmonton Oilers, whose fan bases and media members have said for years to ’just draft a defenseman’, it’s much more difficult than it seems. Even using your first round pick on a blueliner does not guarantee success, or even an NHL player. It’s hard to find those elite defensemen, even if you sink your whole draft into them.

With only a few successful ones coming out each year, it’s no wonder players like Jacob Trouba and Cam Fowler have huge price tags on their heads. Their teams may never get a chance at a player of their caliber again (although, Anaheim seems to buck this trend and have success with a high number of defensive draft picks).

Another Look At What’s Gone Wrong In Florida

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It’s been nothing if not trying for the Florida Panthers in 2016-17. Expected to contend for a second consecutive division title following an offseason spending splurge, the Cats have instead underachieved, resulting in the removal of 2015-16 Jack Adams finalist Gerard Gallant as the team’s head coach. That step has yet to pay off, with the Panthers winning just three of 11 since the change behind the bench.

The turmoil doesn’t end with the head coaching situation. Last year the team promoted former GM Dale Tallon to the role of president of hockey operations. Though it was referred to as a “promotion,” in effect it reduced the veteran executive’s influence within the organization, according to industry sources. Tom Rowe was promoted to take over the general manager spot and other organizational moves apparently were made to highlight the greater use of analytics in the player personnel department. With Rowe replacing Gallant behind the bench, it appears as if owner Vinny Viola has gone back to Tallon, offering at least some of the decision-making authority back to the respected hockey man.

It’s been a difficult start to 2016-17 in Florida, to say the least, and while the disconnect between the front office and Gallant certainly played some role in the early-season struggles of the team, Adam Gretz of Fan Rag Sports Network identifies three other factors which are also responsible in part for Florida’s failings.

Number one on Gretz’s list is the departure of veteran puck-moving blue liner Brian Campbell. Campbell spent five seasons skating primarily on the top pair in Florida and helped mentor former top overall draft selection Aaron Ekblad. Gretz argues that the loss of Campbell has been understated and overshadowed in some circles by the losses of Erik Gudbranson and Willie Mitchell. It may be easy to point the finger at the new, analytically-driven front office for allowing Campbell to leave while doling out huge free agent bucks to Keith Yandle and Jason Demers, But the 37-year-old blue liner returned to Chicago in the offseason on a well below-market, one-year deal worth $2.25MM (with a games-played bonus included), suggesting Campbell may have had little interest in coming back to Florida.

Gretz also points out that the goaltending simply hasn’t been good enough. The team added veteran backstop James Reimer in free agency to pair with Roberto Luongo between the pipes and while the strategy was sound the results simply haven’t been good enough. Reimer has a GAA of 2.77 and a Save % of 0.904, numbers that rank outside the top-30 among qualified goalies in the league. Luongo, meanwhile, started off the campaign strong but has scuffled of late. He has allowed 18 goals in his last five games and has won just one of his last six starts.

Lastly, injuries to key players have contributed to the team’s poor start. Top-line left wing Jonathan Huberdeau, who reached the 20-goal plateau for the first time in his career in 2015-16, has yet to play a game this season. Nick Bjugstad missed the first six weeks and has just one point in 13 games since he returned. Finnish forward Jussi Jokinen, who finished second on the team last season with 60 points, missed 11 contests earlier in the campaign and has just five points.

Needless to say, much has gone wrong for Florida this season, and no matter who has final say in the front office, they’ll be an interesting team to watch leading into the trade deadline.

 

The 2016 All UFA Bust Team

at CDT | by 2 Comments

Last week we presented our 2016 All UFA Bargain team, highlighted by Jonathan Marchessault and Chad Johnson, each of whom has provided results well in excess of any expectations based on the contracts they signed this summer. Of course for every free agent bargain in the NHL there is likely at least one free agent signing that will rate as a bust. Strangely enough, only a handful of UFA blue liners inked multiyear pacts this summer with two of the biggest names, Keith Yandle and Alex Goligoski, traded by their previous employers before agreeing to lucrative deals prior to reaching unrestricted free agency. Subsequently, finding two defensemen who have severely under-performed their new contracts was not as easy as expected.

Without further ado, here is Pro Hockey Rumors 2016 All UFA Bust Team.

Forwards

Andrew Ladd (New York Islanders) – Seven years, $38.5MM: The Islanders, needing to replace the scoring tough of Kyle Okposo, reached a lucrative agreement July 1st with veteran left wing Andrew Ladd. It was expected that in addition to 25-goal, 50-point production, Ladd would also add leadership to a relatively young squad. But Ladd has just five points in 23 contests with his new club and has struggled despite seeing a lot of early-season ice time with John Tavares.

Many were critical of the Ladd contract, primarily due to the seven-year term. Ladd, soon to turn 31, already has nearly 800 regular season games under his belt and likely won’t remain productive into his mid-to-late-30’s. However it was at least expected that Ladd would maintain his 20-goal plus production through the first half of his deal.

Mikkel Boedker (San Jose Sharks) – Four years, $16MM: After falling to the Pittsburgh Penguins in the Stanley Cup Final last June, the San Jose Sharks decided they needed to add some speed to help keep up against the league’s quicker clubs. Enter Boedker, who had tied his career-high in points, tallying 51 while splitting the 2015-16 campaign between Arizona and Colorado. Boedker was supposed to help allow the Sharks to ice four quality lines with skill and add some more speed to the lineup. Unfortunately the production – two goals and four points – simply doesn’t measure up to the lofty contract he received.

Dale Weise (Philadelphia Flyers) – Four years, $9.4MM: Weise parlayed an excellent platform season – 14 goals, 27 points – into a nice, multiyear deal with the Flyers this summer despite his late-season struggles following a trade from Montreal to Chicago. The physical winger tallied just one assist in 15 games with the Blackhawks down the stretch. Yet the AAV of $2.35MM is in line with Weise’s full-season production in both 2014-15 and 2015-16. The problem is, Weise has just two goals and four points in 22 game so far on the campaign and that’s not nearly enough to justify his contract.

Defense

Dan Hamhuis (Dallas Stars) – Two years, $7.5MM: The Stars pursued Hamhuis at last season’s trade deadline but the veteran defender elected to exercise his NTC to block a proposed deal to Dallas as he didn’t want to uproot his family at that time. After losing Kris Russell, Jason Demers and Alex Goligoski from last year’s blue line, it seemed only natural that the Stars would turn again to Hamhuis for help. The 13-year-vet has long been a steady performer and the two-year term is reasonable, but he has just five points in 24 games and has been a healthy scratch at times this season. Surely the Stars expected a little more from their investment.

Jason Demers (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $22.5MM: It’s not that Demers is having a terrible year as he is on pace for around 10 goals and 29 points. But Florida remade their blue line in the offseason, moving on from tough, physical defenders Erik Gudbranson and Dmitry Kulikov in favor of better puck movers like Demers. To say that plan hasn’t worked out would be an understatement. Defensively the team is allowing 2.44 goals-per-game, exactly the same as last year. However on offense, the team is averaging 0.51 fewer goals per game. Yes, some of that likely has to do with the injuries to Jonathan Huberdeau and Nick Bjugstad, but the bottom line is the season has been a bitter disappointment for the Panthers and Demers shares in some of the responsibility.

Goalie

James Reimer (Florida Panthers) – Five years, $17MM: With Roberto Luongo now 37, and the upcoming expansion draft at least providing the Panthers with the possibility of getting out from under the final five years of his onerous contract, the Panthers elected to buy the best goalie on the free agent market this summer to provide a competent fallback option. After eight starts this season, Reimer has a Save % under 0.900 and a GAA above 3.0. While a $3.4MM AAV may not be on par with most of the league’s starters, it is excellent money for a backup and Reimer is currently not even playing to that modest level.

 

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