Ottawa Senators’ Struggles Could Lead To More Movement
The Ottawa Senators were facilitators of the biggest trade of the season so far, when they acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche while sending out Kyle Turris and a package of picks and prospects. That deal certainly shook things up in the Canadian capital, but so far not for the better. The Senators have gone 3-7-1 with Duchene in the lineup, and the former Avalanche center has just two points during that stretch. The struggles may lead to some more changes, as Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports.
Garrioch singles out Cody Ceci as the team’s top trade asset, noting that the Avalanche did try to acquire him in a deal for Duchene before the Nashville Predators were involved. Ceci’s high value isn’t all that surprising given his relative youth and experience, but some would say that it’s not warranted. The 23-year old defenseman rates very poorly in possession statistics, but at least part of that is due to his role playing against some top competition. Still, with just three even strength points on the year Ceci is struggling just like the rest of the roster.
The problem with Ottawa looking to acquire more talent though is that they don’t operate as a cap ceiling team. Moving out money—including Andrew Hammond‘s $1.35MM contract, that was already barely affecting the cap—was an important part of the Duchene deal, as the team can’t afford to pay out much more salary, especially if there are no playoff revenues on the way. That would suggest a player would be on his way out, but there are few obvious options.
Ceci is a restricted free agent at the end of the year, and will be expected a substantial raise from his current $2.8MM deal, but it’s obviously the Senators’ preference to keep him. Derick Brassard has just one more season at $5MM on the books, but would leave a gaping hole in the team’s center depth should he be moved. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf are both too expensive for their performance, but likely have too much money left on their deals to really drum up any interest, and you’re not trading Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone or Erik Karlsson.
The next move for the Senators might have to come internally as Garrioch suggests, but they’ve already given Thomas Chabot a bump in responsibility and it hasn’t worked. Bringing up young forwards like Colin White, Filip Chlapik or Nick Paul could be next, but none look like game-changing presences at the moment. There’s no clear answer in Ottawa, but you can be sure GM Pierre Dorion is working to find one.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Major Three-Way Trade Falls Through
As TSN’s Darren Dreger artfully puts it, “things get complicated when big trades don’t go down.” It’s a rare occurrence in hockey that substantial details regarding a would-be deal are leaked, but such was the case yesterday. Late last night, Dreger reported that a massive three-team deal between the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators, and Nashville Predators had fallen through. Now, as Dreger says, teams are in “damage control” today as they try to clean up the mess that a rumored trade of this magnitude.
The specifics of the deal are allegedly this: Matt Duchene, the topic of trade rumors for the last year, would have gone to Ottawa. Kyle Turris, who the Senators have struggled to re-sign to their perceived fair value before he hits free agency this summer, would have gone to Nashville (probably with some additional considerations). Presumably, the bulk of the return headed to Colorado would then have come from the Predators. Some are speculating that one of Nashville’s “big four”, Mattias Ekholm, may have been involved in the deal, but considering that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was the one who reportedly nixed the deal, unhappy with his return, it seems unlikely that Ekholm was part of the final offer.
So what now? It’s long been known that a) Duchene does not want to be in Colorado and is likely to be moved eventually and b) that Senators GM Pierre Dorion has taken a liking to Duchene and has been working to acquire him since this summer. Even without Nashville as part of the deal, this is a trade that can get done with a meeting of the minds. Ottawa has intriguing prospects like Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Colin White, and Filip Chlapik that have to interest a rebuilding Colorado squad, while roster players like Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will inevitably enter the conversation as well. In the meantime though, these trade rumors will make the prospect of re-signing Turris at all, never mind below market value, a tough task for Dorion. Duchene deal or not, Turris’ days seem numbered in Ottawa.
Atlantic Notes: Ceci, Daley, Aaltonen
The Senators have received plenty of trade interest over the last few years in defenseman Cody Ceci, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman told Sportsnet 960 in Calgary (audio link). One of those suitors appears to be Colorado who has inquired about Ceci’s availability in a possible Matt Duchene deal but it doesn’t appear that GM Pierre Dorion has any inclination to move him, at least for the time being. Ceci’s entering the final year of his bridge contract with a $2.8MM cap hit and a $3.35MM salary which will also represent his required qualifying offer next June. While his offensive numbers dipped in 2016-17, his ice time shot up considerably by nearly four minutes to over 23 per night and if that carries over into this season, he’ll be in line for a significant raise regardless of whether or not his production rebounds.
Elsewhere around the Atlantic:
- Defenseman Trevor Daley’s preference this offseason was to remain with Pittsburgh, reports Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, while the interest was mutual, the two sides weren’t able to come close to terms financially and Daley wound up signing a three-year, $9.5MM deal with the Red Wings back on July 1st despite coming off of a season that saw him record his lowest point total since the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign.
- Finnish center Miro Aaltonen also drew interest from Vegas but ultimately chose to sign with the Maple Leafs in part due to their looming second contracts for their top forwards, notes Jonas Siegel of The Athletic (subscription required). With the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander all heading for big paydays over the next couple of years, Toronto will need some cheaper talent to fill out their roster so it appears that Aaltonen is prepared to play the waiting game if need be over taking what may very well have been an easier path to the NHL with the Golden Knights.
The Oldest NHL Rosters, Looking Forward
The average age of a team is a stat which gets thrown around rarely, but it can be quite telling when it comes to salary cap planning and drafting. The youngest teams tend to have exceptionally talented stars under the age of 25 (Oilers, Blue Jackets), or find themselves out of contention entirely, banking on the rebuilding process (Arizona, Colorado). At the opposite end of the spectrum are the most aged teams, some past their windows of contention and almost all struggling with an identity crisis. However, there are outliers in the group – for instance, Florida is the 5th oldest team at present, while most of the top talent is still in their primes. Still, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Los Angeles Kings all have Father Time looming ominously above their franchises. All of these teams could re-structure themselves and find themselves back on the right track, if their drafting improves and their general managers cut loose harmful contracts while able.
Ottawa Senators
The most recently successful of the three, Ottawa fans likely aren’t expecting another Conference Finals finish. The team lost Marc Methot in expansion, and their largest move in the off-season was the signing of 35-year-old Johnny Oduya. With an average age of 29.73, they should be see the effects of age start to impact their performance. Although 36 year-old Craig Anderson was pivotal in their 2016-17 success, he has one year remaining on his contract and Marcus Hogberg will be looking for an opening in the mid-term future. If Anderson’s workload drastically increases, he could find difficulty in maintaining his above average numbers, and that could spell trouble. By re-signing the steady Mike Condon, however, they at least alleviated that concern.
The team had a chance to unload 30 year-old Bobby Ryan to Vegas, but opted against it. They’ll now have his contract on the books until he’s 35. 36 year-old Alex Burrows has two years remaining on his deal, while 32 year-old Clarke MacArthur has three. 32 year-old defenseman Dion Phaneuf has hard mileage on him with his physical style of play, and has four years remaining on his deal. Outside of Colin White, Cody Ceci, and Fredrik Claesson, everyone on the roster is over the age of 25. If Logan Brown pans out, he should go a long way in rejuvenating the forward corps. Filip Chlapik of Charlottestown is certainly no slouch either. On the defensive side, Thomas Chabot has the talent to make a significant impact, but there’s a logjam of older veterans in his way. While Ottawa obviously doesn’t need to entertain a full rebuild, they need to allow their prospects a chance to make the NHL squad and embrace a youth infusion. Signing the Oduyas of the world only prolongs that necessity.
Detroit Red Wings
The Red Wings have paid out far too much money to mediocre talent, and it has been death by a thousand papercuts for Ken Holland. The team now finds itself $3.9 MM over the salary ceiling, desperately trying to find a way to shed salary and slip under before year’s start while still signing RFA Andreas Athanasiou. This is another franchise who opted to go with an established veteran on the backend this summer, Trevor Daley (33), when the team was in desperate need of younger legs. The team finds itself second oldest league-wide, with an average age of 29.27. Part of the reason Detroit consistently finds itself among the oldest franchises in the league is that the organization places extreme value on fully maturing its prospects, usually in the AHL, before regularly dressing for the big club. This is a fine ideal, but it usually results in more expensive contracts for RFAs, as the totals posted by well-groomed players are usually superior to those of untested rookies. In the Salary Cap era, having productive players on ELCs is a huge contributor to success.
Henrik Zetterberg, 36, has four more years on his deal, and logs exceptionally taxing minutes. Johan Franzen, 37, is already burning cap space, as his LTIR will be on the books for another 3 seasons. Once the year begins, its not a great issue, but it complicates matters in the off-season. Frans Nielsen, 33, is no spring chicken himself and also takes on greater responsibility in Detroit than he ever did in Long Island. With 5 years remaining on his deal, it begs the question of whether he will be performing at a Selke-caliber when he’s turning 38. Only Xavier Ouellet and Danny DeKeyser are under the age of 30 on defense, with Daley, Mike Green, Niklas Kronwall, and Jonathan Ericsson all having no-trade clauses. The Wings have some enticing prospects on the horizon, but with so many immovable and long-term contracts, it will be difficult for them to find places on the team in the short-term. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha are both ready for larger roles, but true talents like Michael Rasmussen should get the opportunity to shine in a top-six role. Detroit is in no position to seriously compete, and perhaps it’s time to embrace the necessary partial rebuild. Trading some of the dead-weight contracts would be a solid start.
Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles is only a few years removed from a Stanley Cup win, but it seems like ages past. They have the third-oldest roster on paper at the moment, with an average age of 29.14. The Kings don’t actually have any players over the age of 35, so in that sense, they’ve avoided serious headaches. Marian Gaborik (35) and Mike Cammalleri (35) are the team’s greybeards, and while both had down seasons, they could each realistically rebound under new leadership. The problem for Los Angeles is that they don’t have any bonafide prospects pushing the issue. Adrian Kempe is the surest best to make the roster this year, as he could slot into a bottom-six role quite easily. Defenseman Paul LaDue should see his fair share of work this year as well. Beyond that, they’ll have no players playing on entry-level contracts. It’s simply unsustainable to draft in such a poor manner for so long, and Los Angeles is seeing the hurt now. If Jonny Brodzinski, a former 5th-rounder, could make the leap permanent, it would be a great help.
The Kings are over $6.8 MM under the cap ceiling, so unlike the Wings and Senators the franchise isn’t overly concerned about money. Dustin Brown‘s contract is particularly egregious, but there’s not much to be done about it. Los Angeles can still turn things around, but they’ll need more recent draft picks to find a way to contribute going forward. Gabriel Viladri will head back to Windsor for the season, but he could inject a serious shot of youthful speed and creativity into the roster in 2018-19. There’s just not a ton of excitement when it comes to Kings prospects, and considering that Vilardi was the first first-round pick since 2014 (Kempe), it’s easy to see why. Still, Tanner Pearson (25) and Tyler Toffoli (25) should have more prominent offensive roles this year, while some older defensemen were abandoned, so management seems to be righting the ship.
Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin
With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.
The Numbers
Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.
Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.
Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ‘decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.
Potential Comparables
Here are some comparable players and their contracts.
Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.
Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.
Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.
Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.
Projection
Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?
Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.
Snapshots: Methot, Karlsson, Marchessault
The Ottawa Senators were put in a rough predicament when Dion Phaneuf turned down the team’s request to waive his no-trade clause. The organization is very high on Cody Ceci, and considering the depth of forwards they needed to protect, they were forced to expose Marc Methot. Many mock drafts have the veteran defender headed to Vegas, including our own. Some have even contemplated whether Methot could find himself in a captaincy position in Nevada. Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun explains how difficult a decision that was for Pierre Dorion and his staff, and how they tried to trade Phaneuf up until the last minute. Ottawa could theoretically try to bribe Vegas with the #28 pick, but considering that the team only has 4 picks overall, that seems unlikely. The more probable scenario is that Ottawa merely takes the blow and moves on.
- The Blue Jackets truly want to hang onto their youngest talents, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. They are supposedly surrendering their 1st round selection to Vegas in order to keep Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo. What makes nearly no sense is the apparent fact that this deal also warns the Knights off of veteran defenseman Jack Johnson. Johnson is an average defender, and with the rise of Zach Werenski and others he doesn’t seem to be a pivotal piece any longer. Vegas will probably choose William Karlsson or Ryan Murray as low-risk claims and run away happy from this deal. The valuation of a first-rounder is probably the lowest in ages, and the anxiety surrounding the protection lists has seemingly reduced their value even further.
- Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel has Jonathan Marchessault headed to Vegas, based on the reports he’s been hearing. Defenders Jason Demers and young forward Reilly Smith are also available as high-value options for the Knights. According to Marchessault himself in an interview on TVA Sports, Tallon wasn’t able to negotiate a protection deal with Vegas. He was certainly being shopped in the lead up to Sunday. The entire Florida protection list was confusing, but Marchessault’s exposure was a truly unforced error by GM Dale Tallon. The 30-goal scorer will almost certainly find a home in Vegas’ top six, and the loss of this quality of player for absolutely nothing is perplexing the entire league. It’s certainly possible Marchessault has a down year after a career one, but asset management was completely blown in this case, and Vegas looks to reap that reward.
Keith Yandle, Dion Phaneuf Asked To Waive No-Movement Clauses
With the Expansion Draft fast approaching, many players are expected to be approached themselves about waiving the No-Movement clauses attached to their contracts as their teams look to strategically navigate the strict expansion process. In his weekly “30 Thoughts” article posted this afternoon, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman states that he has heard that two big-name defenseman, Dion Phaneuf and Keith Yandle, have already been asked for such a waiver by their respective teams.
The news on Phaneuf is not unexepected; in fact many people have suspected all season long that the Ottawa Senators may ask the veteran to waive his No-Movement clause. The Senators have too much forward depth to apply the eight-skater protection scheme for the Expansion Draft and must instead use the 7-3 scheme. Thus, only three Ottawa defenseman can be protected. All-world blue liner Erik Karlsson is an obvious lock and presumably the other two spots would go to shutdown two-way man Marc Methot and young Cody Ceci if Phaneuf does choose to waive. If he doesn’t, the Sens would face a difficult choice between the two or would be forced into striking a trade over the next week. Phaneuf’s situation is interesting in that he actually outscored Ceci and Methot combined in 2016-17 and he has was more or less a complete success in his first full season in Ottawa, capped off by a strong playoff. The ideal scenario for Ottawa is to retain all three defenseman, but after the season that Phaneuf had, as well as his status as a well-known player, it could entice the Golden Knights and a waiver could mean the Senators end up losing their second-best defenseman. On the other hand, exposing Ceci, and to some extent Methot, would almost ensure losing either of them as well.
The situation with Yandle is a much bigger story. The Florida Panthers acquired Yandle’s negotiating rights from the New York Rangers around this time last year and inked him to a massive seven-year, $44.45MM contract. Yandle bypassed free agency and potentially more money to become the long-term partner of Calder-winner Aaron Ekblad and, at age 30, seemed poised to be a Panther for the rest of his career. Now it seems that might not be true. After just one year, Florida appears open to moving on from Yandle. The Panthers face a difficult expansion scenario on defense with, like the Senators, too many promising forwards to protect four defenseman. Even if they could, Florida would really like to protect five: Ekblad, Yandle, Jason Demers, another 2016 free agency splurge, and young play-makers Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk. All five defenseman meet the number of games needed (40 this past season or 70 over the past two seasons) to qualify for the one-defenseman exposure quota, but Petrovic and Pysyk are impending restricted free agents and the other half of the exposure criteria is term remaining on a contract. Thus, only Ekblad, Yandle, or Demers could fill the quota, unless Petrovic, Pysyk, or Jakub Kindl were re-signed just to be exposed. With Ekblad untouchable and Yandle having a No-Movement clause, at this time Demers is the only choice to be the sacrificial lamb. Vegas will surely have some interest in the 28-year-old righty, whether it be to lead their own defense or to flip to another suitor. However, by asking Yandle to waive his clause, it appears that Florida is instead leaning toward keeping Demers to themselves. Why? In his first season with Florida, Yandle did play in all 82 games and recorded 41 points, a good season by any measure, but it was in fact the worst production of any full season to date for the 11-year veteran. The Panthers may be worried that, at 30-years-old, Yandle is already on the decline, while Demers and his cap hit of nearly $2MM less for four more years may be a better investment. It will be interesting to see whether Yandle indeed waives his clause or not, but make no mistake: like Demers, if Yandle is exposed he will be an easy choice for Vegas to select to either highlight their blue line or trade to a contender.
Snapshots: Ryan, Ottawa Injuries, Rutta, Coreau
Partway through the season, it seemed like a given that Senators GM Pierre Dorion would approach Bobby Ryan about waiving his no-move clause for the upcoming expansion draft. However, after a postseason where he was dominant, Don Brennan of the Ottawa Sun believes that he is now a must-protect player.
Ryan led all Ottawa forwards in scoring in the playoffs with 15 points (6-9-15) in 19 games and Brennan suggests that the 30 year old is now starting to better grasp head coach Guy Boucher’s system, something he said he was having some difficulty with earlier in the season. However, it’s also hard to overlook the fact he has five years left on a deal that carries a cap hit of $7.25MM. The Sens are a lower budget team and Ryan has yet to surpass 56 points in any of his four seasons with the team; freeing up that money would give them some flexibility heading into the rest of the offseason.
At the end of the day, despite his postseason success, the contract may be enough of a deterrent for Vegas anyway and if that’s the case, Dorion would be wise to see if Ryan would be willing to waive his no-move, allowing the team to protect an additional forward.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Still with the Sens, blueliner Mark Borowiecki has a torn labrum in his shoulder but will not require surgery this summer, reports Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun (Twitter links). Fellow defender Cody Ceci had also been dealing with injury issues; he mentioned to reports (including Garrioch) that he played with a broken finger more than once during the course of the year.
- Czech defenseman Jan Rutta is leaning towards signing with the Blackhawks, Fox Sports Midwest Andy Strickland reports via Twitter. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun tweets that a final decision could come this weekend and that six teams are in the mix. The 26 year old had a breakout season with Piráti Chomutov of the Czech Extraliga in 2016-17, recording a career high 32 points in 46 regular season games while tacking on another 13 points in 17 postseason contests. He recently suited up for the Czechs at the World Championships, taking part in eight games while logging 15:22 of ice time per game. Edmonton and Calgary are among the other teams who have shown interest in Rutta’s services.
- With Detroit goalie Jared Coreau becoming waiver eligible next season and Jimmy Howard and Petr Mrazek on the roster, MLive’s Ansar Khan suggests that the Wings could carry three goalies to start next season if no one is moved over the summer. Coreau had a good start to his NHL stint last season but struggled in his final few outings which, coupled with his waiver situation, wouldn’t give him a lot of trade value at this time. Khan notes that the team has gone this way in the past when they were worried about losing Joey MacDonald at the start of the year back in 2006-07 and already had Dominik Hasek and Chris Osgood in the fold. (They wound up waiving MacDonald later in the season, losing him to Boston.)
Ottawa’s Expansion Conundrum
The Ottawa Senators are in for a tough decision come the completion of their playoff run, whenever that might be. Ottawa has a team which is built upon depth and scoring by committee, but each NHL team can only protect 7 forwards, 3 defensemen, and 1 goaltender – or alternatively, 8 total skaters and 1 goaltender in the upcoming expansion draft. The Senators are in a situation where they will likely prefer to lose a veteran with a large contract. This seems doubly true because the organization is believed to have an internal cap for financial reasons, and will need to clear space in order to hand out hefty raises to Mark Stone and Kyle Turris following the 2017-18 campaign.
Obviously, Erik Karlsson, Stone, Turris, and Mike Hoffman will be protected. Karlsson is a perennial Norris favorite, captain of the team, and one of the best offensive defensemen the game has seen in decades. Stone and Hoffman are the driving forces behind offensive production, and are both on the young end of their primes. Turris has finally, fully come into his own as a number one center, posting a 27 goal, 55 point season. Considering the price to acquire him (Mika Zibanejad) and the relative value of centers to this team which isn’t too formidable up the middle, Derick Brassard also seems a certainty to stay. Craig Anderson is the obvious pick in net. He’s been an absolute rock that the team has depended on the past few seasons, and this year was simply extraordinary. Cody Ceci is also a rather safe bet, consider minutes logged, age, and his role on the back-end. Marc Methot should seemingly be a core piece to the defense as well, but as we will soon see, his situation is far more complicated. So, in terms of definitely protected players:
Forward: Hoffman, Stone, Turris, Brassard
Defense: Karlsson, Ceci
Goalie: Anderson
That leaves 3 forwards and 1 defensemen, or, alternatively, 2 total skaters to protect. It seems somewhat unlikely (although not impossible) that they will opt for the latter option. If we look at the potential list of who can be protected, there are no easy answers. Up front, Alexandre Burrows seems to have been a solid fit, as he has played well since being promoted to Turris’ right wing on the top line, and his cap hit drops to a measly $2.5 MM going forward. Zack Smith has been a more-than-capable third-line center, and is signed to a cap-friendly deal for four years after this. Bobby Ryan is incredibly overpaid ($7.25 MM) considering his performance this past year (25 points), but has expressed his profound disappointment in his own season to the relative acceptance of the fanbase. It doesn’t hurt his cause that he has been Ottawa’s best skater this post-season by far, leading the team with 7 points through 6 games. Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could also receive consideration for a protected forward spot, but only one is likely to remain unguarded.
In terms of defense, Dion Phaneuf has a bloated contract which would be especially helpful to be rid of. Phaneuf is getting an absurd $7 MM per year , but he is on the “must-protect” list due to his modified no-trade, no-movement clause. The team could ask him to waive, but considering his solid play of late, this is more difficult to conceive. There is also no guarantee that Vegas would be interested in the player. The up-and-coming Fredrik Claesson is exempt from the expansion draft and needs no protection. Therefore, it seems likely that Methot ($4.9 MM) will be the odd man out, as he would likely be exposed in the 7-3 option. This would be a difficult pill for Ottawa fans to swallow, as Methot has arguably been their best shutdown player and he logs a ton of tough minutes.
For a team that has worked so hard to shore up its back-end and add depth up front, there are no easy solutions for GM Pierre Dorion. If you lose Methot, you lose your best defensive defenseman – if you expose a resurgent Ryan, you surrender a creative offensive weapon. Either way, Vegas is likely going to pick one of its integral players from Canada’s capital city.
Snapshots: Franson, Bean, Senators
Cody Franson hasn’t had a very successful Buffalo Sabres career. In two seasons marred by injury, the right-handed defender has failed to reach the 30 point mark that he had broken the past two seasons and will miss the playoffs once again. Today, when he was back in Toronto to face the Maple Leafs he was asked about a possible return to his former team in the offseason. Franson is a pending unrestricted free agent, and will have to make a decision on where he wants to try and rebuild his value.
To several reporters including Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Franson made it very clear that he would be open to a return. “Oh yeah, for sure” he told Johnston, before explaining that playing in Toronto was a “dream come true” for him and his family. Despite having poor point totals and injury concerns, Franson actually still has solid possession numbers and is a candidate for a nice value contract on the open market. He’s clearly not a lock-down defender and never will be, but since he moves the puck so efficiently he doesn’t spend as much time in his own zone. For Toronto fans screaming for the heads of Roman Polak and Matt Hunwick, Franson would likely be welcomed back with open arms.
- Jake Bean is headed to the Charlotte Checkers to get a taste of professional hockey now that his Calgary Hitmen have been eliminated from the WHL playoffs. The first-round pick (13th overall) of the Carolina Hurricanes last summer, Bean is about as good of a defensive prospect as you’ll find around the league. His 45 points in 43 games this season in junior showed once again that his offensive game is ready for the next level, and he is starting to fill out physically. The 18-year old will have to make the NHL team out of camp next season or return to the Hitmen for a fourth year and anchor a Team Canada blueline at the World Juniors.
- The Ottawa Senators are in a fight with the Maple Leafs for second place in the Atlantic Division, and they keep getting hit with injuries. According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, Cody Ceci, Marc Methot and Zack Smith will all not return before the end of the regular season, while Erik Karlsson again missed practice today and is out for tonight’s game. The team will have one reinforcement though, as Colin White will make his NHL debut on the fourth line alongside Tommy Wingels and Chris Kelly. Ryan Dzingel will be scratched in favor of the top prospect, who signed his entry-level contract just yesterday.