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Cody Ceci

Salary Cap Floor Should Not Pose Problems For Any Team In 2018-19

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The purpose of the salary cap in the NHL is to maintain a sense of competitive balance across the league. That means both limiting how much a team can spend, the salary cap ceiling, but also ensuring that every team is competitive with a minimum expenditure, the salary cap floor. Some teams, generally those in smaller markets or undergoing rebuilds, tend to try to toe the line of the salary cap floor, paying as close to the minimum as possible for their roster. In years past, some teams have even struggled to hit that mark, taking on injured players or overpaying players in order to pass the floor. It’s unlikely that any of the 31 franchises will face that problem in 2018-19.

This season, with a corresponding jump in the salary cap ceiling, the floor moved to $58.8MM. With the bulk of unrestricted free agency accounted for, just three teams currently sit below that mark: the New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, and Winnipeg Jets. However, both the Rangers and Jets can immediately be crossed off as a salary floor concern. The pair are perhaps the two teams with the most potential salary tied up in salary arbitration this off-season.

The Jets currently have the lowest projected payroll in the league, with a 16-man roster that accounts for approximately $52.7MM. However, Winnipeg’s list of restricted free agents who have filed for arbitration include Vezina candidate Connor Hellebuyck, defenseman Jacob Trouba, and forwards Adam Lowry, Chris Tanev, and Marko Dano, as well as defenseman Tucker Poolman who did not file. Those six players could easily combine for more than $20MM in combined salary when all is said and done, putting the Jets well clear of the floor and closer to the ceiling. Defenseman Josh Morrissey, who is not arbitration eligible also needs a new contract. Winnipeg is far from a floor concern.

In New York, the Rangers sit at $55.8MM in projected cap committed to 16 players, just $3MM shy of the floor. They also need to re-sign a majority of their young core, with forwards Kevin Hayes, Ryan Spooner, and Jimmy Vesey and defenseman Brady Skjei having filed for arbitration. The Rangers could pass the floor by extending just one of those players, nevertheless all four. New deals for those three forwards still leaves New York one or two shy of a full roster as well, meaning more salary will come into the fold via promotion or an additional acquisition.

As for the Devils, New Jersey is already close to the floor at a projected $56.4MM for 19 players. Forwards Blake Coleman and Stefan Noesen have filed for arbitration and the deals for both could be enough to push the Devils to where they need to be. Even if it doesn’t, the team will still need to sign non-arbitration eligible RFA’s Miles Wood and Steve Santini, whose deals should definitely be enough. New Jersey will likely be a team that hovers close to the floor next season; that didn’t stop them from making the playoffs in 2017-18, though.

Perhaps the only team who should be legitimately concerned about the salary cap floor next season in Ottawa. The Senators and owner Eugene Melnyk have made it no secret that they are trying to shed salary and come in as close to the minimum as possible. Right now, the team sits just $3MM above the floor at a projected $61.8MM roster for 20 players. However, that isn’t including the arbitration resolutions for both defenseman Cody Ceci and forward Mark Stone. Those two deals will put Ottawa well above the floor. Even if the team was to trade star defenseman Erik Karlsson, they should remain above the floor, especially with additional salaries likely to be added in the trade return. The one scenario in which Melnyk could succeed in dropping significant salary would be if both Karlsson and Bobby Ryan were to be traded away. The resulting $13.75MM loss in payable salary would more than offset the contracts for Stone and Ceci and likely the contracts of those players coming back as well, potentially dropping the team below $58.8MM. Yet, even in that case, the Senators’ efforts to fill out their roster after losing Karlsson and Ryan – either by promotion or acquisition – could easily be used to get back to that mark.

The salary cap floor was never intended to be used as a target for teams to hover above and spend as little as possible. The goal of the NHL is have each and every team be competitive, not simply trying to maximize profits. As such, the 2018-19 season has some parity promise as seemingly no team will struggle to get over the floor or have to use contracts for the old and injured to get there. For the first time in years, every team seems set to be competitive and comfortably over the minimum cap hit.

All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.com.

Free Agent Focus: Ottawa Senators

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign.  Here is a breakdown of Ottawa’s free agent situation.

Key Restricted Free Agents: D Cody Ceci – While Ceci may not be universally loved by the traditional scouting or analytics community, his role on the Senators is clear. He’s expected to anchor the shutdown second pair and allow Erik Karlsson’s unit to play more offensively against weaker competition. Ceci logged over 23 minutes a night last season, easily registering more short-handed time than any other player for the Senators. His 2:46 of penalty killing time every night was a minute more than any defenseman expected to be with the club next season, with only Dion Phaneuf (now with the Kings) and Johnny Oduya (free agent) closer than Ben Harpur’s 1:43 average.

That’s a heavy load for Ceci under noted defensive coach Guy Boucher, and one that has limited any offensive upside he showed as a young player. Ceci recorded just 19 points last season, with only 14 of those coming at even-strength. That doesn’t give him a lot of firepower when going into contract negotiations, as defensive metrics are harder to argue. Still, he should see a raise on the $2.8MM he earned in 2017-18, especially if he signs long-term. Ceci is on track to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2020 since he started his career so young, meaning anything longer than a two-year contract will be buying out UFA years.

F Mark Stone – Though Ceci is important, it all comes down to Stone this summer for the Senators as they look to lock up their best offensive player. Any contract Stone signs will send him to unrestricted free agency at its conclusion, meaning both sides will probably be looking for a long-term deal. The 26-year old is coming off arguably his best season even though he played in just 58 games due to injury, as he was more than a point-per-game player during those contests. With 62 points on the year he registered his fourth consecutive 20+ goal, 50+ point season and is one of the league’s top takeaway artists, able to strip the puck from unsuspecting defensemen with ease.

Nearly everyone that watches the Senators on a regular basis realizes that Stone is an elite player in the NHL, but unfortunately for the club (and their frustrated ownership) that doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s very well-known around the league to fans of other teams. That might help them in negotiations, as his lack of All-Star notoriety may keep his cap hit relatively reasonable. After earning an average of $3.5MM for the past three seasons, it’s not out of the question that he could double his salary should he sign long-term, and end up with a contract like Evander Kane’s recent seven-year, $49MM deal.

Other RFAs: D Fredrik Claesson, G Chris Driedger, F Nick Moutrey, F Nick Paul

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: D Chris Wideman – If Ceci has been overused in his time in Ottawa, the opposite could be said for Wideman who despite good possession statistics and excellent offensive pedigree has averaged just under 14 minutes a night during his Senators career. This season was even more disappointing for the 28-year old defenseman, as he tore his hamstring in November and played only 16 games all year. He had eight points in those 16 contests, showing off the ability that made him a 61-point player in the AHL in 2014-15, but never could return before the end of the year despite his hard rehab schedule.

Wideman seems like he’s destined to go unsigned by the Senators, unless of course they’ve made the decision to trade Karlsson after all. If they do end up moving their captain, bringing back a good puck-moving right-handed defenseman like Wideman makes a lot of sense. Otherwise there isn’t a lot of room for him on a club that looks like it will have at least six NHL defensemen already under contract. Perhaps since he missed most of the season Wideman wouldn’t be looking for much of a raise on his $800K salary from 2017-18, but with the free agent market thin on talent from the right side there ought to be plenty of suitors for his services come July 1.

Other UFAs: F Tyler Randell, F Mike Blunden, F Max Reinhart

Projected Cap Space: Ottawa only has around $60MM committed for next season, and with the cap ceiling expected to climb to something around $80MM there is plenty of room for Stone and Ceci to be re-signed without hamstringing the team on the free agent market. That said, the Senators have never been a team to spend heavily on big name free agents and have an owner that sets an internal budget separate from the league’s cap. After a season at the bottom of the league without playoff revenue, it’s not clear how flush with cash the Senators will be this summer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

East Notes: Flyers Draft Picks, Hart, Senators

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With two picks in the top-20 of the upcoming draft, the Flyers could be poised to make some noise.  GM Ron Hextall has been aggressive in going after specific prospects he likes and the 14th and 19th selections give him a variety of options.  Despite a tendency to move up, Hextall told John Boruk of NBC Sports Philadelphia that there’s no guarantee he’ll be looking to do so once again:

“We’ll look at everything with those picks. I’m not saying we move them or move up. I don’t know. I don’t know what’s going to come our way. You sit here and you might want this or that. Someone else is going to want the same things you want.”

On top of having an extra first-rounder, the Flyers also have two selections in the fifth and seventh rounds so there will certainly be opportunities for Hextall to be active on the draft floor.

Elsewhere around the East:

  • Still with Philly, Flyers goaltending prospect Carter Hart received a pair of accolades today. The WHL announced its end-of-season award winners and Hart not only won the Goaltender of the Year award (for the third straight year), he also took home the Player of the Year honors.  Hart posted a stellar 1.60 GAA and a .947 SV% in 41 appearances, leading some to wonder if he could make a run at a regular NHL spot next season, a rarity for goalies coming out of the junior ranks.
  • The Senators have held preliminary contract discussions with pending restricted free agent winger Mark Stone and Cody Ceci, GM Pierre Dorion acknowledged in an interview on TSN 1200 in Ottawa (audio link). However, there is no indication that new deals are imminent.  The Sens also have decisions to make on a pair of pending unrestricted free agents in blueliner Chris Wideman and winger Magnus Paajarvi; Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that the team has interest in keeping both players around.  Wideman’s case, in particular, will be an interesting one as he was quite productive in a limited role this season (eight points in 16 games) before suffering a hamstring injury that ended his season back in November.

Senators Notes: Dorion, Anselmi, Karlsson

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Armed with a new three-year extension, Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion has a tough task ahead of him, but he has already said that change is coming. He has stated that he has been listening to offers for the entire team with the exception of captain Erik Karlsson, winger Mark Stone and defenseman Thomas Chabot after a tough season which sees them in seventh place in the Atlantic Division after a season in which they went to the Eastern Conference finals last season.

The Ottawa Citizen’s Bruce Garrioch writes the real question is how big of a change will Dorion want to make at the deadline or during the offseason. Names have surfaced range from Mike Hoffman, Zack Smith, Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Dzingel, Cody Ceci, Dion Phaneuf and Johnny Oduya.

“The phone is always busy,” Dorion said. “We’ve put ourselves in the position that we are and people know that last year we had a lot of players that were key components to us getting to the final four teams. I think other teams are looking at us. We have the assets, but we’re going to make good hockey deals and that’s very important for this organization.”

The Senators are looking for established young players, who have NHL experience already as well as high-end prospects and picks. Of course, the team is unlikely to trade their whole team away either.

“These next three weeks are very important for the team that we need to set in place for the following years,” Dorion said. “At the same time, branding something, telling people exactly what our plan is, isn’t the best course of action. There will be changes that will be made.”

  • Tom Brennan of The Ottawa Sun writes that the Ottawa Senators front office mayhem continued last week when they announced that president and CEO Tom Anselmi would be vacating his role. The scribe believes he resigned three weeks ago, because of what one source described as “craziness.” In 24 months, the Senators have gone through two presidents, three chief financial officers and three chief marketing officers. With the team struggling in attendance, hiring Dorion to an extension might have been one of the smartest moves owner Eugene Melnyk has done in quite a while and shows that he wants stability within the organization.
  • The Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that with the news that the Senators are taking a step back and trying to rebuild the team will only hasten the departure of Karlsson. Why would Karlsson want to stay on a team with front office instability and has already admitted they intend to rebuild? On top of that, Warren believes the team likely doesn’t want to commit $80-$100MM. It looks more likely the team would be more likely to shed salary.
  • In the same article, Warren also points out that Dorion still has a lot to prove as general manager. While he’s drafted well, some of Dorion’s moves have been questionable, including trading prospect Jonathan Dahlen for fourth-liner Alexandre Burrows, whose contract is only holding the team back. Exposing defenseman Marc Methot in the expansion draft didn’t help as he was a great partner to Karlsson. The scribe also adds that he believes the team overpaid for both Pageau and Smith.

Senators Notes: Phaneuf, Ceci, Payroll

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Despite the fact that he carries a pricey contract, the Senators are receiving some interest in defenseman Dion Phaneuf, TSN’s Darren Dreger reported in an appearance on TSN 1200 (audio link).  He does note that at this time, no deal appears to be imminent and teams appear to be viewing him as a fallback option more than a top target at this time.

Phaneuf has three years remaining on his contract with a cap hit of $7MM, a rather prohibitive contract considering his offensive game and ice time have dipped with Ottawa this season.  However, he can still play a top-four role while providing some physicality as well so he can still be a useful defender.  That said, Dreger also acknowledged that the Senators would either have to retain on his contract and/or take a bad contract or two back in order to help facilitate a move.  Phaneuf will also have some say as to whether or not he moves as he has a 12-team trade list.

More from Ottawa:

  • Phaneuf isn’t the only blueliner that is drawing some attention. Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch reports that a few teams have called defenseman Cody Ceci.  The pending RFA has had a quiet season offensively with just nine points in 42 games but he has still averaged nearly 23 minutes in playing time.  He also has arbitration eligibility for the first time in his career.  That should have him in line for a raise from the $3.35MM he’s making this season in salary (with a $2.8MM cap charge), something that the Sens may not be willing to give him.
  • Also from Garrioch’s column, GM Pierre Dorion stated that owner Eugene Melnyk has not given him a directive to try to cut payroll. Although they’ve long been viewed as a lower-spending team, they are quietly within $1.5MM of the cap while spending more than $72MM in salary.  Assuming they do wind up selling though, that will likely change by the time the trade deadline comes and goes.

Morning Notes: Duclair, Ceci, Bruins-Panthers

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We’ve heard previously that the Arizona Coyotes are looking to give Anthony Duclair a “fresh start” somewhere else around the league, and now Craig Custance of The Athletic reports that it is because the young forward requested a trade out of the desert. Duclair hasn’t been able to reproduce his breakout 2015-16 season in which he scored 20 goals and 44 points, but is still young enough to have an impact in the right situation.

The Coyotes, who seem happy with their development even in the face of another wasted season, are again one of the most likely sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. Though Duclair has just seven goals and 13 points on the year, he’s the kind of acquisition who could explode if given an opportunity in the second half. The fact that he’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights is no small thing, as his future salary is still very much up in the air.

  • Darren Dreger was on TSN 1260 radio this morning, and suggested that Edmonton had pursued a Taylor Hall-for-Cody Ceci trade before eventually dealing the winger to the New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson. For the Ottawa Senators, who have had trouble scoring over the last few years, adding a player like Hall may have changed some fortunes. Still, Ceci is a player who continues to see his name bandied about in trade rumors around the league, despite the Senators being quite happy with his play. If Ceci is dealt this year, surely it won’t be for a piece as big as Hall.
  • The game tonight between the Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers has been cancelled due to inclement weather, as a huge snow storm is headed for the Boston area. The city could get up to 18 inches of snow, and travel to and from the game isn’t safe. It has yet to be rescheduled.

Senators Preparing To Move Players

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Following a convincing 5-1 loss to the Boston Bruins last night – the same team they knocked out in the playoffs last season yet trail by 15 points in 2017-18 – the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch writes that GM Pierre Dorion is ready to make some changes. It has been well reported to this point that the Senator’s struggles this season are real and, with the franchise’s future offering more questions than answers, there is a possibility of a fire sale and rebuild in the near future.

While earlier reports indicated that all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson may even be up for grabs, Garrioch says that Dorion has changed his tune, with the word being that Karlsson and young winger Mark Stone are the only untouchables on the Senators roster. Logic would dictate that promising rookies Thomas Chabot and Filip Chlapik are likely on that list as well, but the entire remainder of the roster could be up for grabs at the right price.

The shortlist offered up by Garrioch of the top trade bait includes winger Mike Hoffman, centers Derick Brassard and Jean-Gabriel Pageau and young defenseman Cody Ceci. While they might be harder to move, the team would surely like to get rid of Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf as well. Of that group, the most intriguing name is definitely Hoffman, who by every metric is a top six scoring winger and would be of major interest to many teams across the league. While he may net the Senators a strong return, Hoffman is signed through 2020 at a reasonable $5.2MM and may be a player that Ottawa would regret moving on from.

Changes are coming to Ottawa. It could be a major trade tomorrow or it could be a series of smaller moves up until the Trade Deadline or perhaps even this off-season. However, Dorion is ready to make moves now and, with few pure sellers at this point in the season, the Senators will be a team to watch for the remainder of the 2017-18 campaign.

Latest On Erik Karlsson

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Erik Karlsson wants the trade speculation to calm down. After expressing that he wouldn’t consider taking a “hometown discount” to stay with the Ottawa Senators when he becomes an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2019, and then being one of the players asked to submit his “no-trade” list on the weekend, rumors have run wild. Karlsson wants to put an end to that, and in speaking with Arash Madani of Sportsnet tried his very best.

This is the place I want to win with. I want to win in Ottawa. That’s where I’ll always be. It’s going to be my home, no matter where I end up playing when I get older, if that ever happens. So that’s the thing: I want to be where home is. I’m comfortable at home, I like it at home and Ottawa is home. Not only the organization, but the community and all my friends as well. That’s something that’s very important to me. Then, all the other stuff, they will just follow.

Karlsson regrets speaking about his future contract negotiations, but when they came during an anchor-like plummet to the bottom of the standings by the Senators they rang with a note of truth and expectation. The Senators have lost 11 of their last 12 games, including a 5-0 pummeling at the hands of San Jose on Saturday night. Ottawa was outshot 50-25 in the game, and now sit lower than all but the Buffalo Sabres in the Atlantic Division.

Still, despite many outlets (PHR included) suggesting it may be time to consider a move, Karlsson doesn’t appear to be on the block. In fact, Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun cites two league sources that tell him Karlsson hasn’t been discussed at all in trade talks with GM Pierre Dorion. Garrioch instead suggests that the trio of Mike Hoffman, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Cody Ceci represent the “three best options that will bring return.” Hoffman was also among the group asked for their no-trade lists, while Pageau and Ceci have been linked to trade talks in the past.

The biggest decision still lies with Karlsson, who has 136 regular season games remaining under contract with the Senators. Whether they can even afford his next huge contract will be a huge factor in what happens during the end of this deal, as Dorion will surely get as many assets as possible if he realizes there is no extension coming. The two sides are able to negotiate on a new deal once July 1st, 2018 rolls around, a day circled on the calendar of many Ottawa fans.

Ottawa Senators’ Struggles Could Lead To More Movement

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The Ottawa Senators were facilitators of the biggest trade of the season so far, when they acquired Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche while sending out Kyle Turris and a package of picks and prospects. That deal certainly shook things up in the Canadian capital, but so far not for the better. The Senators have gone 3-7-1 with Duchene in the lineup, and the former Avalanche center has just two points during that stretch. The struggles may lead to some more changes, as Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun reports.

Cody CeciGarrioch singles out Cody Ceci as the team’s top trade asset, noting that the Avalanche did try to acquire him in a deal for Duchene before the Nashville Predators were involved. Ceci’s high value isn’t all that surprising given his relative youth and experience, but some would say that it’s not warranted. The 23-year old defenseman rates very poorly in possession statistics, but at least part of that is due to his role playing against some top competition. Still, with just three even strength points on the year Ceci is struggling just like the rest of the roster.

The problem with Ottawa looking to acquire more talent though is that they don’t operate as a cap ceiling team. Moving out money—including Andrew Hammond’s $1.35MM contract, that was already barely affecting the cap—was an important part of the Duchene deal, as the team can’t afford to pay out much more salary, especially if there are no playoff revenues on the way. That would suggest a player would be on his way out, but there are few obvious options.

Ceci is a restricted free agent at the end of the year, and will be expected a substantial raise from his current $2.8MM deal, but it’s obviously the Senators’ preference to keep him. Derick Brassard has just one more season at $5MM on the books, but would leave a gaping hole in the team’s center depth should he be moved. Bobby Ryan and Dion Phaneuf are both too expensive for their performance, but likely have too much money left on their deals to really drum up any interest, and you’re not trading Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone or Erik Karlsson.

The next move for the Senators might have to come internally as Garrioch suggests, but they’ve already given Thomas Chabot a bump in responsibility and it hasn’t worked. Bringing up young forwards like Colin White, Filip Chlapik or Nick Paul could be next, but none look like game-changing presences at the moment. There’s no clear answer in Ottawa, but you can be sure GM Pierre Dorion is working to find one.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Major Three-Way Trade Falls Through

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As TSN’s Darren Dreger artfully puts it,  “things get complicated when big trades don’t go down.” It’s a rare occurrence in hockey that substantial details regarding a would-be deal are leaked, but such was the case yesterday. Late last night, Dreger reported that a massive three-team deal between the Colorado Avalanche, Ottawa Senators, and Nashville Predators had fallen through. Now, as Dreger says, teams are in “damage control” today as they try to clean up the mess that a rumored trade of this magnitude.

The specifics of the deal are allegedly this: Matt Duchene, the topic of trade rumors for the last year, would have gone to Ottawa. Kyle Turris, who the Senators have struggled to re-sign to their perceived fair value before he hits free agency this summer, would have gone to Nashville (probably with some additional considerations). Presumably, the bulk of the return headed to Colorado would then have come from the Predators. Some are speculating that one of Nashville’s “big four”, Mattias Ekholm, may have been involved in the deal, but considering that Avalanche GM Joe Sakic was the one who reportedly nixed the deal, unhappy with his return, it seems unlikely that Ekholm was part of the final offer.

So what now? It’s long been known that a) Duchene does not want to be in Colorado and is likely to be moved eventually and b) that Senators GM Pierre Dorion has taken a liking to Duchene and has been working to acquire him since this summer. Even without Nashville as part of the deal, this is a trade that can get done with a meeting of the minds. Ottawa has intriguing prospects like Thomas Chabot, Logan Brown, Colin White, and Filip Chlapik that have to interest a rebuilding Colorado squad, while roster players like Cody Ceci and Jean-Gabriel Pageau will inevitably enter the conversation as well. In the meantime though, these trade rumors will make the prospect of re-signing Turris at all, never mind below market value, a tough task for Dorion. Duchene deal or not, Turris’ days seem numbered in Ottawa.

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