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Arbitration Notes: Departures, Capitals, Sabres

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It’s no secret that salary arbitration is not a friendly process. If a player does make it all the way through the hearing, that means that they’ve sat through a presentation by their own team about just how bad they are compared to other similar players. While teams and players often use the threat of the unknown of an arbitrator’s decision to move contract talks along, the potential unpleasantness of a hearing is also plenty of motivation to come to terms. Case in point: Colorado’s Sheldon Dries, who today settled on a one-year, two-way contract worth $735K. Dries’ contract comes in just $35K above the absolute worst possible outcome in an arbitration hearing, yet he opted not to argue his case in hopes of a better outcome. Why? Likely to avoid the breakdown in a relationship between he and the Avalanche if the hearing got ugly. It’s more common than it may seem – The Athletic’s Craig Custance crunched the numbers and found that the vast majority of players who go through an arbitration hearing end up leaving that team, one way or another.

Over the past ten years, 27 players have gone into a hearing. Not all of those players required an arbitrator’s award, but any resulting settlements still came after the unfortunate back-and-forth. Of those 27 players, Custance found that 14 were on new teams within a year and 21 were on new teams within three years. All of last summer’s cases – Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba, Ottawa’s Cody Ceci, Calgary’s Brett Kulak, and Dallas’ Gemel Smith – are on new teams now. In fact, of the 27 players who have reached a hearing since 2009, no player before 2015 remains on the team that the faced off with and only four players since still remain on good terms with their club: Nashville’s Craig Smith and Viktor Arvidsson, Washington’s Braden Holtby, and Vegas’ Nate Schmidt. This all goes to show that arbitration can be a dangerous method of negotiating for teams, even if the goal is to settle before an arbitrator’s decision. The numbers convincingly imply that an arbitration hearing is the death knell for a player’s relationship with his team. As far as this off-season goes, this analysis doesn’t bode well for Andrew Copp and the Jets, Christian Djoos and the Capitals, and Evan Rodrigues and the Sabres, all of whom not only went to hearings already this summer, but whose awards all favored the team more so than the player. With ten potential cases still to go, there could be even more players who one day look back at this off-season as the beginning of the end.

  • The Capitals may very well end up back in front of an arbitrator before long, with a case against forward Chandler Stephenson scheduled for August 1st. Although the decision in the Djoos case – a $1.25MM award against a $1.35MM midpoint – favored the team, it still puts them in a difficult situation regarding the salary cap and eliminates some hope that a resolution with Stephenson could come prior to a hearing. Washington is currently more than $300K over the salary cap ceiling after signing Djoos. While young defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler can be returned to the AHL without the threat of waivers for a $714K drop to get under the cap, it would leave the Capitals with just six defensemen. All of Washington’s 14 NHL forwards, including Stephenson, would be subject to waivers, although the team would likely want to carry that many forwards anyway. It’s a difficult conundrum not made any easier by the unknown of Stephenson’s contract either. The 25-year-old forward recorded 18 points in 67 games in 2017-18 and another 11 points in 62 games this past season. He will likely seek a salary of $1MM or more, a number that Washington simply cannot palate. Asked who the team would choose if faced with a choice between trading away Djoos or Stephenson to open up cap space and roster flexibility, NBC Sports’ J.J. Regan did not hesitate to say that Stephenson would be the one dealt. Defense is in short supply for the Capitals and Djoos is a proven starter. Stephenson on the other hand would be an expendable piece in a deep forward corps. It may not matter though, as moving Stephenson alone is unlikely to be a sufficient answer to Washington’s cap troubles.
  • If you think the Capitals having two cases is bad, wait until you hear about the Sabres. Like Washington, Buffalo has already been through one hearing this summer with forward Evan Rodrigues, landing a $2MM award against a $2.075MM midpoint. It was somewhat of a surprising decision and may have given GM Jason Botterill and company some confidence moving forward. That could wind up being a problem for all parties involved, as three of the remaining ten scheduled cases are also Sabres players: forward Remi Elie, goalie Linus Ullmark, and defenseman Jake McCabe. If Buffalo goes to hearing with even one more of these players, never mind all three, it could be a bad look for the organization and could cause a breakdown in numerous player relationships. However, if the team continues to win their arbitration battles, it would be a major help this season, as the team has just over $3MM in cap space left to sign the trio. It’s a long-term risk for a short-term gain for the Sabres.

Toronto’s Barrie Expected To Demand $8MM Next Year

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Although the Toronto Maple Leafs have plenty of obstacles still to deal with this offseason still, including working out a contract with restricted free agent Mitch Marner, the team may have even more problems approaching them a year from now.

While the Maple Leafs forwards should be in good shape next season as the team will have few to no free agents to worry about, the newly reconstructed defense will be an entirely different story as only one of their defenseman, Morgan Rielly, is signed beyond the 2019-20 season. The team has five unrestricted free agents blueliners and another two restricted free agents defenders, which could create quite a bit of unrest next summer.

However, to make matters worse, the Toronto Sun’s Steve Simmons writes that newly acquired Tyson Barrie is expecting to cash in on his next contract next summer and could be looking to demand an eight-year deal at $8MM per season next year. The 27-year-old has been incredibly consistent over the last few years, putting up 14 goals and a career-high 59 points last season and has averaged 49 points over the past six seasons. He is finishing up a four-year, $22MM contract at $5.5MM, but because Colorado retained half his salary, the team is only on the hook for a $2.75MM AAV this season. However, an $8MM contract could force the Maple Leafs to allow the blueliner to walk away for nothing.

The team will likely have to make some tough decisions as Jake Muzzin and Cody Ceci will also be unrestricted free agents. Much of those decisions will likely depend on how well they play next season and how their salaries can fit into their tight salary cap situation. The team has a few other lesser free agents, including Justin Holl and Martin Marincin, but they also may have to give significant raises to restricted free agents Travis Dermott and Ben Harpur. The team will get a small break next season when the contract of Nathan Horton and his $5.3MM finally expires, which should help, but that isn’t likely to solve all those problems either. There will be little money available to help the team out without more cost-cutting moves.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Ceci, Kerfoot

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After making some changes on July 1 in the form of trades, the Toronto Maple Leafs found themselves with another pair of restricted free agents to sign. It didn’t take long to work out new contracts though, as today the Maple Leafs announced new deals for both Alexander Kerfoot and Cody Ceci. Kerfoot’s four-year contract will be for a total of $14MM, while Ceci’s should come in at just one-year, $4.5MM. Both will be unrestricted free agents when the deals expire.

Kerfoot, 24, was acquired in a deal along with Tyson Barrie that saw long-time Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri head to the Colorado Avalanche. The young forward is coming off consecutive seasons with at least 42 points after signing as a free agent out of Harvard in 2017. Kerfoot decided not to sign with the team that drafted him 15oth overall in 2012, turning down any offer the New Jersey Devils made.

A great skater, Kerfoot does most of his damage from in tight after getting behind the defense or finding loose pucks around the net. Though he isn’t the bruising, physical winger that many have pined for in Toronto, he does bring more skill to a lineup designed by GM Kyle Dubas to rely on it. He also brings some much needed versatility, able to play both center and left wing when called upon. The Maple Leafs did sign Jason Spezza and Nick Shore on the first day of free agency, but it’s tough to see either of them in a full-time third-line center role at this point in their careers. At a $3.5MM cap hit, Kerfoot could be a reasonable option in the middle behind Auston Matthews and John Tavares.

Ceci, 26, will get a chance to prove that he can excel in reduced minutes in Toronto. The right-handed defenseman was often asked to take on the opponents best when he was with the Ottawa Senators, usually to disappointing results. Though armed with all the physical skills needed to be an elite player in the NHL, Ceci still hasn’t been able to put everything together and become that true top-pairing defenseman. He is however coming off a 26-point season with the Senators and is some much-needed depth on the right side for Toronto after they let Ron Hainsey leave and traded Nikita Zaitsev.

The question now though is how the Maple Leafs will afford to fit their other restricted free agent into the fold. Mitch Marner is still unsigned and Toronto’s cap situation is getting crowded once again. They currently project to have just $3.76MM in cap space for next season, though they will be able to move Nathan Horton’s $5.3MM hit onto long-term injured reserve. They could also potentially do that with both Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott at the beginning of the season, though both players are expected back before long. The Maple Leafs do have an advantage with the proximity of their minor league club, allowing them to play home games with a reduced roster in order to bank cap space, but either way it is going to be quite the dance to get everyone in this season. In fact, there very well might be some additional moves required before the start of the year depending on where Marner’s final number ends up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Maple Leafs Agree To Terms With Cody Ceci

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It hasn’t taken long for the Maple Leafs to work out a contract for new acquisition Cody Ceci.  TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that defenseman has verbally agreed to a one-year, $4.5MM contract with Toronto.

Ceci was officially acquired earlier today as part of a six-player swap that sent blueliner Nikita Zaitsev and winger Connor Brown to the Senators as the other notable players in the trade.  Interestingly enough, this contract matches what Zaitsev’s AAV is, meaning that the cap savings from the trade basically amounts to the different between Brown’s contract and that of Ben Harpur’s (a difference of $1.375MM).  Of course, Zaitsev has four years left on his deal after 2019-20 while Ceci will be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time.

Ceci earns a small $200K raise on his contract from last season and will hope that a new team will bolster his market value.  He was miscast as a top-pairing option with the Senators due to their limited defensive depth and he was exposed in that role.  With the Maple Leafs, he shouldn’t be counted on to log as much ice time which could make him a better fit for them.

Next season will serve as an audition for the 25-year-old.  A good showing with Toronto could help him earn a long-term contract with them or really bolster his case on the open market.  However, if he struggles again, his value is going to take a dip as he’ll no longer have arbitration eligibility to help inflate his contract (where ice time is a large consideration).  Needless to say, 2019-20 will be a critical season for Ceci.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Nikita Zaitsev

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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators have finalized a trade that will see Nikita Zaitsev and Cody Ceci swap teams. The Maple Leafs will send Zaitsev, Connor Brown and Michael Carcone to the Senators in exchange for Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 third-round draft pick (originally from Columbus). The trade had to wait until today so that Toronto could pay out Zaitsev’s $3MM signing bonus, though technically that also meant he needed to waive the partial no-trade clause that has kicked in.

Zaitsev, 27, has five years left on his current contract and carries a $4.5MM cap hit, something the Maple Leafs needed to get out from under as they continue to work on an extension for restricted free agent Mitch Marner. The Russian defenseman signed a long-term deal with the club after an excellent rookie season in 2017 but saw his offensive numbers regress drastically as head coach Mike Babcock used him more and more in a shutdown role. That role never seemed like a perfect fit for the smooth-skating Zaitsev, who is used much more offensively at the international level with the Russian national team.

A capable penalty killer, he immediately becomes the Senators’ most expensive defenseman and reunites with former Maple Leafs assistant coach D.J. Smith who is now the boss in Ottawa. Zaitsev will likely be leaned on heavily for the Senators, who have plenty of inexperience on their blue line at the moment.

If not for this trade Ceci, 25, would have become the highest paid defender for the Senators as he was a year ago. Sitting currently as a restricted free agent he does have the option to file for salary arbitration but could also just elect to accept his $4.3MM qualifying offer. That may be the more prudent decision in this case, as heading to arbitration likely gives the Maple Leafs a chance to walk away from the decision altogether. It’s not clear what Toronto’s plans for Ceci are at this point.

Of the other pieces in the deal, Brown is clearly the most valuable. The bottom-six forward is heading into the final year of his current contract that carries a $2.1MM cap hit but is a useful player that can contribute in various situations. A 20-goal scorer as a rookie in 2016-17, the last two seasons have seen his goal totals drop dramatically as more talent was brought into the Toronto lineup. The sixth-round pick eventually found himself suiting up most nights on the fourth line, though he was still a favorite of Babcock’s on the penalty kill. The 25-year old will likely receive a bigger opportunity in Ottawa and could set himself up for another solid contract next summer with some improved offensive numbers.

Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion released a statement on his newest players:

“We’re bringing in highly competitive players that we like as long-term fits for our team. Both are the type of true professionals who match with the culture we want to put in place here in Ottawa,. Nikita is a physical right-shot defenceman who defends hard, fills lanes and blocks shots. Connor has scored 20 goals in the league and is excellent on the forecheck and the penalty kill. We feel both players will add to our depth and fit well within the structure we want our team to play.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Toronto’s Nikita Zaitsev Likely Heading To Ottawa

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have been trying to find a way to unload the contract of defenseman Nikita Zaitsev, who still has five years remaining at $4.5MM. It looks like the Maple Leafs have found a trade partner as Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Toronto is working with the Ottawa Senators on a trade, while Sportnet’s Chris Johnston adds that it likely will involve a swap of defensemen as Cody Ceci could find himself heading back to Toronto.

The deal may take a couple of days as it’s likely Ottawa is waiting until July 1 so that Toronto is forced to pay Zaitsev his $3MM signing bonus before pulling the trigger on the trade. Ceci will be a restricted free agent and could become an unrestricted free agent in one year. Ceci and the Senators have been trying to work out a long-term deal, but haven’t been able to come to terms, and in fact haven’t even been close, with recent rumors suggesting that Ottawa has been considering shopping him now instead.

A trade with Ottawa could be interesting as TSN’s Darren Dreger reported that Zaitsev has Ottawa on his 10-team modified no-trade list. However, the 27-year-old does have a relationship with new Senators head coach D.J. Smith, who has been an assistant coach in Toronto. That could be enough for Zaitsev to waive his no-trade clause and head to Ottawa. He has already requested a trade in the first place in hopes of getting a new opportunity somewhere else after struggling the past two years after an impressive rookie campaign. In Ottawa, he would likely take a significant role, especially if Ceci is headed the other way. The Senators do have Thomas Chabot as a top-four option and they have veteran Mark Borowiecki, but little else that is established yet, which should give Zaitsev the opportunity he is looking for.

Ceci, could be the defenseman they are looking for. The team has been looking to upgrade its defense without having to pay out any substantial money since they are up against the cap with a number of key free-agents to sign. Ceci should give Toronto that top-four defensive presence the team is looking for at a similar cost to that of Zaitsev, although it would give the team another restricted free agent that it would have to deal with this summer. Ceci finished last year with seven goals and 26 points. The team must decide whether it would want to sign Ceci to a long-term deal or allow him to go to arbitration with the possibility of losing him next season, although the team would have accomplished their goal of shedding the contract of Zaitsev, which may be the priority for Toronto at this point.

There is also the possibility that Toronto is taking on the contract with the idea of letting Ceci go to arbitration and then possibly walking away from Ceci without signing the contract, making him a free agent to free up the cap room. The team could also attempt to flip Ceci to another team as well.

Snapshots: Barrie, Spurgeon, Senators

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The Colorado Avalanche are in the enviable position of having two first-round picks this year despite making the playoffs, and one of those selections is fourth overall. The team very well could be adding top defensive prospect Bowen Byram with that spot, giving them quite the young core on the blue line along with Samuel Girard and Cale Makar. That inevitably would lead to some speculating that the Avalanche will be looking to trade another defenseman, and A.J. Haefele of BSN Denver today tweeted that he believes Tyson Barrie is “in play.”

Haefele doesn’t mention the Byram connection, and perhaps that has nothing to do with it given Barrie plays the right side. With Erik Johnson already entrenched as a leader on the team and signed long-term, Barrie might be the one to go in order to give Makar more minutes on that side and the powerplay. The 27-year old Barrie had another excellent offensive season, recording 14 goals and 59 points in 78 games.

  • The Minnesota Wild have made sweeping changes to the core of their team since GM Paul Fenton took over, but one name they’re looking to keep is Jared Spurgeon. Michael Russo of The Athletic reports that Fenton and agent Eustace King met yesterday to begin talks on an extension, given the defenseman has just a single year remaining on his contract. Spurgeon is one of the game’s premiere two-way defensemen, recording solid offensive numbers while being a reliable shutdown option in his own end. Coming off a career-high 43 points any extension will be an expensive one, and likely include a substantial raise over the $5.19MM cap hit he currently carries.
  • Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that the Ottawa Senators have issued qualifying offers to Cody Ceci, Christian Wolanin, Nick Paul, Colin White and Jack Rodewald, though all were expected. Ceci is still just 25 years old despite having played six seasons in the league, and is one of the more interesting players to watch on the Senators roster. He is a restricted free agent but could potentially settle for a one-year contract through arbitration and walk right into unrestricted free agency next season. His qualifying offer is $4.3MM, already a hefty contract for the Senators to swallow.

Ottawa “Seriously Exploring” Trade Market For Cody Ceci

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Despite being the butt of many jokes for the past couple of seasons, the Ottawa Senators head into this offseason with some real opportunity. The team has just a single player—Bobby Ryan—under contract for more than two years and a huge number of draft picks to work with over the next several seasons. Putting the Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone and Matt Duchene situations behind him, GM Pierre Dorion can now go to work on rebuilding the franchise back up. Still, there are a few veteran names on the roster that come with some question marks. One of those is Cody Ceci, who is a restricted free agent once again after seeing his one-year $4.3MM deal expire.

Ceci, 25, is the experienced one on the Ottawa blue line, with six NHL seasons under his belt already. He’s coming off a 26-point performance while being used heavily in the defensive zone. A relatively young, experienced defenseman that is logging more than 22 minutes a night in all situations is usually one a team wants to lock up long term, but Ceci may not be in that situation. There has been criticism launched towards the defenseman for years, partly because his skills make him neither an offensive or defensive talent, but somewhere in the middle. He probably shouldn’t be used as much as he has been in Ottawa, but they haven’t had many other reliable options over the years.

Now, as free agency looms once again and the Senators prepare for an offseason of change, Ceci is in talks on a new contract. Both Wayne Scanlan of Sportsnet and Ken Warren of the Ottawa Citizen note that discussions are ongoing, but Warren also reports that Dorion is “seriously exploring the trade market.” The league has watched several defensemen change teams in recent days, with Olli Maatta, Jacob Trouba, Matt Niskanen, Radko Gudas and Justin Braun all traded. Nikita Zaitsev and Rasmus Ristolainen have also been discussed and could be moved by the end of the summer. Will Ceci be another name to add to that list?

Scanlan writes that other teams have been calling Dorion because of their cap space and draft assets, and the Senators GM admits that they’ve spoken about moving up in the draft. The Senators currently have picks 19, 32 and 44, but with so much other draft capital available could potentially move up significantly. A Ceci deal would obviously not have to be involved in that, but it is still something to monitor over the coming days.

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Senators Notes: No. 19 Pick, Paajarvi, Hogberg

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Perhaps excited by the extension of Anthony Duclair and the additional second-round pick added by the Erik Karlsson contract, both occurring earlier today, Ottawa Senators GM Pierre Dorion was very positive and open when speaking with the media today. Per The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch, Dorion began by discussing the team’s plans for the upcoming NHL Draft. The Senators will travel to Vancouver tomorrow to begin meetings ahead of the round one of the draft on Friday night, but Dorion has already had many conversations with rival GM’s. Dorion states that he has already spoken with multiple teams about possibly moving up in the first round from No. 19. The Senators are without their own first-rounder, owed to the Colorado Avalanche from last year’s Matt Duchene trade, but the team was fortunately able to recoup a top pick from the Columbus Blue Jackets in their own sale of Duchene. With that said, No. 19 is not exactly where a rebuilding team would like their first pick to be, even though Ottawa already has a deep, talented pipeline. Following the Karlsson news, CapFriendly reports that the Senators now have 28 picks in the next three drafts, including 16 in the top three rounds. That is plenty of ammunition if Dorion decides that he wants to move up the board on Friday. Teams like the Philadelphia Flyers and Vancouver Canucks have hinted at their willingness to move back, while the Colorado Avalanche may also be open to moving their second pick in the round, No. 16. If Dorion is intent on moving up, he should be able to find a taker.

  • Dorion also made the somewhat surprising reveal that the Senators are not pursuing a contract extension with free agent forward Magnus Paajarvi. Paajarvi, 28, has spent the past season and half with Ottawa after coming over from the St. Louis Blues on waivers in 2017-18. Although the 2009 tenth overall pick has never been able to live up to his draft stock nor his rookie year production, Paajarvi has grown into a solid two-way player and enjoyed the best season since his first in Ottawa this past year. Paajarvi seemed like a safe bet to stay with the Senators, especially given his key role on the penalty kill, but Dorion has other plans. He did say that talks continue with fellow UFA’s Oscar Lindberg and Brian Gibbons, both of whom performed well after deadline trades, as well as RFA defenseman Cody Ceci. As for Paajarvi, he’ll likely land on his feet elsewhere in the league once free agency opens.
  • Finally, Dorion announced that a contract resolution with RFA goaltender Marcus Hogberg is imminent. Hogberg is expected to sign with the team this week after rumors emerged early this off-season that he was considering a move to Europe. It remains possible that Hogberg could still be loaned elsewhere, as his signing only adds to a logjam of keepers in both Ottawa and AHL Belleville. The Senators expect to enter next season with a tandem of veteran Craig Anderson and returnee Anders Nilsson. As of now, Mike Condon will also be in the mix. In the minors, the team hopes to give top goalie prospect Filip Gustavsson, college standout Joey Daccord, and now Hogberg the time in net they need to develop properly. If that is going to be impossible, even with a likely Condon departure, Hogberg is the top candidate to be loaned away, despite his advantage in pro experience.

Poll: Where Will Nikita Zaitsev End Up?

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As the Toronto Raptors prepared to host the first NBA Finals game in franchise history, their hockey counterparts were making news of their own. Toronto Maple Leafs GM Kyle Dubas admitted that defenseman Nikita Zaitsev had requested a “fresh start” elsewhere, after Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet had broken the news a few hours earlier. Dubas wouldn’t commit to trading Zaitsev at all costs, but did tell reporters that he would try to find a landing spot if possible:

I met with Dan [Milstein, Zaitsev’s agent] here and I don’t want to get too much into the details, that’s up to Dan and Nikita on their end. That will be our goal, to try and find a fresh start for him, for his own personal and private reasons. I’ll leave that to Dan and Nikita to talk about. In the case of what it means for our team, it’s not any definitive type of, “he’s definitely not going to be back.” Especially as the year went on, especially as he was paired with [Jake] Muzzin, his value began to shine through a little bit more. His penalty killing, his right shot, he plays in our top four and he’s signed reasonably for a long time.

Already speculation has started on where Zaitsev could end up. Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun suggests that the Ottawa Senators could be a potential fit, given their need to add salary to reach the cap floor this season. The 27-year old defenseman has five years remaining on his current contract which carries a $4.5MM cap hit. That would immediately become the Senators’ most expensive contract among defensemen, though Cody Ceci’s impending deal would likely surpass it in terms of cap hit for next season. Interestingly, Zaitsev is owed a $3MM signing bonus on July 1, reducing the cost for a team like Ottawa even further.

There is also the obvious connection to the New York Islanders, where former Maple Leafs GM Lou Lamoriello now runs the ship. Lamoriello was an integral part in recruiting Zaitsev in the first place, and was the one who signed him to the seven-year extension after just one season in the NHL. He obviously felt at one point that the Russian defenseman was worth investing in, and perhaps he still does.

There’s no indication yet though of where Dubas would be looking, or even what kind of return he’d be after. The Maple Leafs were already likely considering a move of Zaitsev given their cap constraints this summer, with new contracts due for Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson. The smooth-skating defenseman is valuable to the team, especially given his handedness, but may be too expensive to hold on to anyway. That would also mean they can’t take a lot of salary back in any deal, unless Dubas and the rest of the front office plan on cutting cap dollars somewhere else.

So where will Zaitsev end up? Will any team even come forward with a legitimate offer? Cast your vote below and let us know what you think in the comments.

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