Senators star defender Jake Sanderson is out week-to-week with the upper-body injury he sustained against the Kraken on Saturday, head coach Travis Green announced (via Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia).
Ottawa recalled Dennis Gilbert from AHL Belleville in a related move this morning, but he will not play tonight against the Canucks. Nikolas Matinpalo has been cleared to return from his undisclosed injury and will replace Sanderson in the lineup, sliding in as their #3 lefty alongside Nick Jensen, the team said.
Sanderson’s first significant injury since undergoing season-ending hand surgery in March 2022 couldn’t come at a worse time. After beating Seattle 7-4 over the weekend, the Sens have kept pace in the wild-card race and entered play Monday five points back of the Bruins for the second spot with a game in hand. They still have the Blue Jackets to leapfrog before putting themselves in duel mode with Boston, though, and considering Columbus has matched them with a 7-1-2 record in their last 10, they’ll need to keep all the pressure on.
While the Eastern Conference field has separated into the haves and have-nots post-deadline, there are still 10 teams truly in the mix for eight playoff spots. Ottawa currently sits 10th in that group, and while MoneyPuck gives them a 50.8% chance of making the playoffs, fifth and 10th place in the conference are so close that there are seven teams in the 50-85% range, with Ottawa bringing up the rear there as well.
All that means a lot still needs to go right for the Sens to get back to the playoffs for the second straight season. One saving grace is that they don’t have a particularly difficult schedule with around league-average opponents the rest of the way. They get their easiest remaining matchup out of the way tonight in what is an absolute must-win against the last-place Canucks. Meanwhile, three teams they’re chasing – Boston, Detroit, and Pittsburgh – have three of the five most difficult remaining schedules.
It will get even more difficult to make up ground without Sanderson. On the heels of a 10th-place Norris Trophy finish last season, he’s upped his points per game from 0.71 to 0.77 while posting a career-best +9 rating, averaging 24:49 of ice time per game, and posting spectacular 5-on-5 possession numbers. Ottawa is controlling 56% of shot attempts, 57.1% of scoring chances, and 56.8% of expected goals with Sanderson on the ice.
Green must now shuffle the deck regarding his defense pairings. He has the luxury of another top-pair caliber lefty, Thomas Chabot, sitting behind Sanderson on the depth chart. He’ll go back to being the Sens’ #1 in terms of ice time, moving up to slot in alongside top shutdown righty Artem Zub. Tyler Kleven and Jordan Spence, who have been so effective as Ottawa’s third pairing, will receive second-pairing deployment tonight while Jensen, who’d served as Chabot’s partner at even strength for much of the year, will see reduced minutes alongside Matinpalo.
Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.