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Alexander Radulov

Capitals Have Four Of Top Eight Unrestricted Free Agents

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The 2017 free agency class may not be the strongest, but the Washington Capitals have the most to gain (or more likely lose) if free agency doesn’t go their way. The Capitals, currently on the ropes, down 3-1, to the Pittsburgh Penguins (Game 5 tonight), have four of the top eight unrestricted free agents, according to Matt Larkin of the Hockey News, as he posts his Top-30 unrestricted free agents this summer.

Unlike previous years, Larkin writes that this year’s class falls short of firepower, which the scribe points out is bad news for the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights, who get a 48-hour window to negotiate with any free agents before any other teams. Regardless, it’s the Capitals who will find themselves on the clock as defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk is listed as the number one free agent on the list, while winger T.J. Oshie is third. Defenseman Karl Alzner is ranked fifth, while veteran wing Justin Williams is eighth on their list.

Larkin adds that he believes the Capitals will only be able to ink two of those players and will be forced to let two go. Shattenkirk, who was acquired in a February trade from the St. Louis Blues for their playoff run, has struggled in the playoffs this year, but is listed first due to the fact that blueliners in the prime of their careers, who can play 20 minutes a night, are always rewarded. Whether Washington can keep him at a high price tag is the tough question.

The team is likely to do everything to sign Oshie, however. The 30-year-old winger has had a breakout season with Washington on the first line with Alex Ovechkin and Niklas Backstrom. He has tallied 59 regular-season goals in the two seasons he has played for the Capitals since being acquired by trade from the Blues.

The Capitals then have to look at Alzner, a rugged blueliner who at age 28, could get a large contract in a weak year of free agent defensemen, while Williams playoff success could make him a well-paid second-liner as well. The Capitals have to decide what priorities they have as it’s unlikely they can afford to keep all four players.

Montreal Canadiens veteran winger Alexander Radulov, who returned to the NHL last year after a long stint in the KHL, is ranked second on the list, although he has said he would like to resign with the Canadiens. Goaltender Ben Bishop is listed fourth on that free agent list and the 30-year-old netminder should be in high demand. Veterans Martin Hanzal (No. 6), Joe Thornton (No. 7), Radim Vrbata (No. 9) and Patrick Eaves (No. 10) round out the first ten on that list.

 

Allen’s Latest: Playoff Surprises, Second Round Predictions

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The USA Today’s Kevin Allen listed his playoff surprises as teams advanced into the second round. His biggest surprise is a take shared by many: the four game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks. He wonders if they’ve “run out of magic” and comments that the team looked worn out. He also believes that Stan Bowman will be a man of his word and certainly look to tweak the roster. The house cleanings in Buffalo, and Los Angeles certainly caught Allen (and others) by surprise. He believes that the recently fired Dean Lombardi may be just what Buffalo needs to get over the hump. Allen underscores the importance of Jake Allen in the Blues’ first round triumph, and notes that Alexander Radulov should get a hefty payday after playing well with Montreal. Allen also sees Ryan Johansen as the #1 center the Predators envisioned him to be when they dealt for him last season.

  • Allen mentions Johansen again when he points out the five reasons Nashville shocked Chicago in four games. Besides getting the best of Chicago defensively, he notes that Pekka Rinne rose to the occasion and was next to impossible to beat between the pipes. Rinne posted a staggering .976 save percentage and gave up just three goals in four games. Allen adds that the Predators were also a much deeper team than the one who faced Chicago back in 2015. Finally, strategic moves by head coach Peter Laviolette played a key role in Chicago’s inability to contain the Preds. Focusing on speed, by placing Harry Zolnierczyk and Pontus Aberg into the lineup made the Blackhawks lives miserable trying to keep up.
  • In terms of who will advance to the conference finals, Allen is the only one of his staff who sees the Penguins getting past the Capitals. He believes the Penguins speed will cause matchup problems for Washington, and result in yet another Washington-Pittsburgh tilt that sees the Penguins triumph. Allen has the Rangers meeting the Penguins in the Eastern Conference Final, dispatching the Senators in six games. Over in the West, Allen forecasts an Anaheim-Nashville Western Conference Final, though he thinks both matchups will see seven games, writing that the Nashville-St. Louis series is most likely a toss up.

Alexander Radulov Will Not Participate In 2017 World Championships

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Fresh off a 4-2 Series loss to the New York Rangers, Montreal Canadiens winger Alexander Radulov was expected to join Russia for the upcoming World Championships in Paris and Cologne. Instead, he has refused to join the tournament according to the Russian Hockey Federation website citing his lack of a contract. Radulov is set to become an unrestricted free agent once again, but has been expected to re-sign with Montreal. The article also states that Nikita Zaitsev will not participate because of a concussion he suffered at the end of the regular season. Though Zaitsev returned in the playoffs for the Toronto Maple Leafs, he’ll opt-out of the tournament to focus on his health.

Radulov is set for a bit offseason after proving he was still the dynamic offensive player that left the NHL several years ago. With 54 points in the regular season and seemingly the Canadiens’ only dangerous player in the playoffs, Radulov has set himself up for a multi-year deal on the open market should he make it to July 1st. The length of the contract is up for debate, after Radulov and his agent both immediately downplayed the report that he was asking for eight years earlier this season.

Without a contract signed, the World Championships pose an incredible risk for Radulov if he were to get hurt, and the same goes for Zaitsev. The young Maple Leafs defender has been rumored to have agreed to a seven-year extension, but since it hasn’t been made official yet an injury—especially one that revolves around his brain—would be catastrophic for his future. He’ll instead work on being 100% ready for the start of training camp in a few months, where he will likely be penciled into the Leafs top-4 once again.

Afternoon Notes: Canadiens, Alzner, Stalberg

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The Globe and Mail and TSN both contemplate what the future might hold for the vanquished Montreal Canadiens, following a disappointing first-round exit at the hands of the New York Rangers Saturday night. Marc Bergevin could conceivably be on the hot seat in spite of his team’s Atlantic division title, but the firing of former coach Michel Therrien likely extended his tenure. The P.K. Subban trade is quite the easy target for criticism, although the squad’s defensive stats took a large leap upward since Shea Weber’s acquisition. Even Carey Price appears not to be immune from fan criticism, though it hardly seems Price could have done much more to assist his floundering offense. Max Pacioretty is sure to draw ire as well, as his 0 goals and 1 assist through 6 games was incredibly underwhelming. The team has an awful lot of contracts coming off the books, and the organizational vision will now be more important then ever. Impending UFAs include Alexander Radulov, Dwight King, Brian Flynn, Steve Ott, and Andrei Markov. Assuming Radulov re-signs, there is still a glaring need for another potent offensive weapon to assist Pacioretty. With Tomas Plekanec having only one year remaining on his deal, and Alex Galchenyuk constantly receiving demotion, strength down the middle is an issue. A top-flight center has to be at the top of the wish list for a squad that struggled so mightily to find consistent offense. Whether they can actually acquire one via trade (or some other means) remains to be seen.

  • Washington defenseman Karl Alzner will miss his fourth straight game as his team faces off against Toronto in Game 6, although he did skate with the team. Alzner sustained an upper body injury prior to Game 3, and further details are unknown. Replacement Nate Schmidt has performed admirably in his absence, although Alzner’s defensive presence and ability to eat minutes is difficult to replace. Alzner is not particularly physically dominant, but he is adept at keeping scoring chances limited and to the outside. Holtby will need to be sharp in his absence with a desperate, offensively talented Toronto team looking to fire away this evening.
  • Ottawa defenseman Chris Wideman will be replaced tonight by Fredrik Claesson. Wideman has been barely noticeable in this series, but had tallid a goal and an assist from the backend. During the season, Claesson’s Corsi numbers were slightly better than Wideman’s, while Wideman had been a little more involved offensively. Ottawa’s injured left winger Viktor Stalberg may be able to return tonight, as he is a game-time decision. The big bodied winger is known for his blazing speed and penalty killing prowess. As a veteran with 48 playoff games under his belt, Stalberg would be a welcome return to bolster Ottawa’s already formidable forward depth. It is undetermined who would sit out in his place.

The Radulov Factor: Signing KHL Talent

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As the 14 teams who didn’t make the playoffs can certainly attest, there is a fine line between making noise and sliding to irrelevance. One look no further than the Colorado Avalanche to realize that one off-season of poor decisions and a bad string of luck can complete derail a season beyond salvage. A solid signing can put you right back into the mix. Stagnation can mean failure, and of course, loss of fan interest as well as precious revenue.

This off-season, with the UFA class looking more sparse than ever, teams will be hunting for NHL talent on cheap contracts. Many teams will seek the help of the undrafted NCAAer, and with good reason. However, Montreal’s tactic of paying a steep contract for a KHL superstar has paid dividends, through the season and now in the playoffs. Alexander Radulov had his fair share of nay-sayers, as his experience with Nashville didn’t go particularly well. And an anti-Russian, anti-European bias does always seem to sneak into the conversation whenever overseas talent is concerned. Artemi Panarin had plenty of suitors, to be sure, but even he was compensated less than what he realistically deserved. In his first season, the young star tallied 30 goals and 77 points on a line with Patrick Kane. Not much of an adjustment faze.

Let’s look at a trio of names that have been, or should be, tossed into the ring for teams’ consideration in the near future:

Jan Kovar (C)  – Metallurg Magnitogorsk

Kovar has been mentioned from time to time for years, as an intriguing top forward for the star-studded Magnitogorsk. Talks to come over to the NHL have unfortunately never gotten particularly serious. Kovar scored 63 points in 59 games this past year, lead the Gagarin Cup playoffs with 25 points, and is still a decently spry 27 years-old. The Czech-born center is listed at only 5’10”, but as we have seen with Vladimir Sobotka, size isn’t always a deal-breaker. He is known for his solid shot and ability to create chances from very little. His playmaking abilities have only gotten better with age. Although his World Championship point totals aren’t fantastic, he would be a low-risk addition for any fringe team in need of offensive flair, or depth up the middle.

Evgeny Dadonov (RW) – SKA St. Petersburg

The former Florida Panther has been nothing short of phenomenal for SKA in the past year. During the team’s title run, the forward pulled off Datsyuk-ian moves with relative ease. He has previous ties to Carolina, and whatever they could offer should be matched by any other bottom-feeding team in the division – this player has the serious potential to burn defensemen for years. He could also be a complete bust, like he was his first time through. But the maturity that comes with multiple playoff runs and being trusted in a leadership role shouldn’t be under-estimated. Even in light of the NHL’s decision to avoid the Olympics, Dadonov is expected to strongly consider a return to the league. His pricetag may be an issue, however. Here’s hoping the cost isn’t a sticking point, because his remarkable creativity would be a welcome sight on NHL ice.

Emil Garipov (G) – Ak Bars Kazan

Yes, the goalie market is flooded with capable tenders already. Yes, you’ve probably never heard of this guy. Yes, no team has any rumored interest of late. But franchises struggling with goalie depth would be bonkers to not at least pick up the phone on this kid with the statlines he’s put up. At 25 years-old, Garipov is just hitting his prime years as a netminder. He kept his team afloat yet again with another strong showing in a KHL career that has been remarkably strong. His career save percentage is well above .930 and he survived an absolute barrage of shots last season with veteran poise. Garipov is technically sharp and he exudes a confidence that is well beyond his years. He also never quits on a play, which can be evidenced by scores of highlights such as these. Worst case scenario – you acquire a backup who struggles. But Garipov has shown flashes of next-level athleticism and focus which suggest that he could be capable of making the leap.

Of course, the Olympic situation complicates any potential KHL hoppers this summer. How much of a deterrent the Pyeongchang decision will be for Europeans remains to be seen, but as Radulov evidences on a nightly basis, the rewards for thinking outside the box can be great indeed.

Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Radulov, Schaller

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While it appears that the Maple Leafs are close to finalizing a seven year, $31.5MM extension with defenseman Nikita Zaitsev, it doesn’t appear that there are any talks ongoing with other pending restricted free agents, TSN’s Bob McKenzie relayed on a radio appearance with TSN 1050.  Wingers Connor Brown and Zach Hyman are Toronto’s other prominent restricted free agents but McKenzie noted that GM Lou Lamoriello typically has tended to stay away from mid-season extensions so the fact nothing is currently happening there shouldn’t come as a surprise:

“I think historically – I wouldn’t say it’s a hard and fast rule – but historically the GM, Lou, if I remember correctly, doesn’t do a lot of mid-season deals. It’s a little unusual.”

Brown is having himself a nice rookie season with 19 goals (fifth most on the team) and 35 points while playing in all 76 games.  As for Hyman, his point total isn’t as high (28) but has been a strong complementary player in their top six.  Unlike Brown, Hyman is also eligible for arbitration following the season.  The Leafs have the financial flexibility to give each a long-term if they so desire as they have just under $57MM committed to 18 players for next season (a figure that does not include any potential bonus overage from this season).

Other notes from the Atlantic:

  • While there had been some discussion on a potential contract extension earlier this season, no formal offer was presented from the Canadiens to right winger Alexander Radulov, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. Radulov also once again vehemently denied the report from two weeks ago that suggested he was seeking a max-term eight year contract.  The Russian winger has made a strong impression on his one year deal signed back in July and while he may not get eight years, he’s still likely to get a long-term contract in what’s shaping up to be a light free agent market this summer.
  • Not only will the Bruins be without left winger Frank Vatrano for both games this weekend, they will also still be without left winger Tim Schaller for the next two games, notes Anthony Gulizia of the Boston Globe. Schaller had been cleared for contact on Thursday and the belief was that he was close to returning but he didn’t take part in practice today.  Head coach Bruce Cassidy isn’t sure when Schaller will be ready to return.

Morning Notes: Draft, RFAs, Galchenyuk

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Craig Button of TSN updated his rankings for the NHL Entry Draft, and there is big movement among the first round. After Timothy Liljegren has remained in the conversation for top-3 for so long, Button has now dropped him to eighth, as he struggles to find ice time in Sweden. Martin Necas slides into the spot following Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier, as Button compares the Czech center to a young Claude Giroux.

Cale Makar from the AJHL has made his way into the top five, an impressive feat for someone playing in a “lesser league”. Button doesn’t consider this a problem, as he is focused on evaluating where they will be at the next level, not their current competition. Makar has 75 points in 54 games as a defenseman, and has received many comparisons to Erik Karlsson in the way that he handles the puck.

  • Columbus extended three restricted free agents yesterday when they inked Markus Hannikainen, Lukas Sedlak and Scott Harrington to two-year deals. The team still has three RFAs left for this summer, and according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch the Blue Jackets aren’t worried about signing them. Alexander Wennberg, Josh Anderson and Joonas Korpisalo all require new deals, and the Jackets are going to be tight on money once again. Depending on who is taken at the expansion draft, they may have to consider some sort of salary dump—like Scott Hartnell, who will be scratched tonight in favor of Sedlak—in order to keep their cap structure in tact.
  • The Montreal Canadiens experienced a heartbreaking loss last night to one of the worst teams in the conference when they fell 2-1 in overtime to the Detroit Red Wings. Again their expected top line of Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk and Alexander Radulov was broken up in the third period, something that has become far too common. Eric Engels of Sportsnet writes about how Galchenyuk in particular had a rough night, and doesn’t seem to mesh well with Radulov in terms of play style. The young forward had a breakout 30-goal campaign last season, but has struggled all year with his consistency and defensive play. With just nine games remaining until the playoffs, most first-place teams don’t have the kind of doubt Montreal is feeling with their #1 centerman.

The Case For T.J. Oshie As This Summer’s Top Free Agent

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Earlier this year, PHR put together our first draft of the 2017 unrestricted free agent class. Washington Capitals right winger T.J. Oshie finished a respectable fourth on that list, behind Joe Thornton, Alexander Radulov, and, of course, Oshie’s new teammate Kevin Shattenkirk. Those mid-season power rankings were just that, a list based on career performance and the first half of the season. Yet, free agancy often reflects “what have you done for me lately?” rather than a complete analysis of a player’s full body of work, and the second half of the season has been a windfall for Oshie. Is he now the top player on the market this summer?

After last night’s hat trick against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Oshie is now the Capitals leading goal-scorer. Yes, that’s right, Oshie leads the best team in the league in goals, not Alexander Ovechkin. The last time that any player led Washington in goal scoring at this point in the season and wasn’t Ovechkin: Robert Lang in 2003-04. Not only that, Oshie’s 49 points in 58 games makes him the most efficient scorer on the team behind Nicklas Backstrom. Oshie is sniping at a career rate in 2016-17, with a 24.2% shooting percentage, which explains his career-high in goals as well. He also has a career-best +26 rating right now, a function of the Capital’s success but also of the more careful, refined game he has shown this season.

So Oshie is having an excellent year; does that make him the top free agent? No one behind Oshie on our initial list has played significantly better, so it comes down to comparing him against Thornton, Radulov, and Shattenkirk. The first thing that should stick out between Oshie and Thornton is age. Oshie will be 30 years old at the start of the 2017-18 season, whereas Thornton will be 38. Radulov will be just 31, but has just returned to the NHL this season after a long hiatus in the KHL. Oshie and Thornton thus have him beat in terms of career consistency and dependability. If 2016-17 scoring is the main criteria, it’s a close race with Oshie at 49 points, Thornton at 48 points, and Radulov at 47 points, but Oshie has played in fewer games than the others. With an age advantage over Thornton and a consistency advantage over Radulov packaged with a scoring advantage over both, it’s fair to say that Oshie has moved into the top spot among impending free agent forwards. Making that call easier is the fact that both Thornton and Radulov are expected by many to re-sign with their current teams following the Expansion Draft in June and may not even hit the open market with Oshie on July 1st.

So that leaves Oshie vs. Shattenkirk. Especially if Washington wins their first ever Stanley Cup on the backs of these two players, both Oshie and Shattenkirk will be highly sought-after and handsomely paid on July 1st. However, can you make the case that Oshie has surpassed his new teammate in free agent value? Back in January, the PHR writers were in universal agreement that Shattenkirk was the top player available. However, when it came time for the St. Louis Blues to move him at the Trade Deadline, rumors began circulating that many teams saw Shattenkirk as a second-pair guy, were unwilling to part with top prospects and multiple high picks to acquire him, and were not planning on handing him a contract worth $7MM+ per year this summer. The Capitals ended up parting with a package that surprised many as being relatively cheap in return for the star defenseman. Shattenkirk is still the best blue liner on the market and will get his money somewhere, but no such word has come out about Oshie’s free agency prospects. It appears that teams are ready to give the skilled winger whatever he asks, as Oshie has proved time and time again that he is one of the most consistent scorers in the NHL, as well as a powerplay dyanamo and shootout specialist. The simple fact that scoring defense is always in higher demand than scoring forwards may dictate that Shattenkirk remains the top free agent this summer, but don’t be surprised to see Oshie get a similar deal to his teammate and go on to have greater success than Shattenkirk with his new team in the future.

Alexander Radulov Denies Rumors Of Eight-Year Contract Demand

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When it hit the rumor mill yesterday that Alexander Radulov had asked for an eight-year contract, it seemed far fetched. In our article about it, we even threw that idea out the window as a negotiating tactic and something the Canadiens would obviously not do. As it turns out, Radulov denies it was even ever on the table. To John Lu of TSN today, Radulov spoke about the rumor and flatly denied every asking for eight years.

It’s not even close, what they [are] saying. I don’t even know how this…I just don’t want to even discuss that because it’s nothing I can really control. I was sick yesterday and I got a phone call from my agent: ’There’s something going on, some people talking.’ So I was like, ’who’s talking? No one knows nothing about it.’

Radulov goes on to say that he talked to Canadiens’ GM Marc Bergevin directly to tell him that was false, and “doesn’t make sense.”  While the eight-year ask might not make sense, it has now been brought up in three different reports (including the always reputable Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, though perhaps that stemmed from his colleague’s report) that Radulov would be seeking at least six years, which does seem more plausible. In assessing any contract, eight always seemed like it was out of the question for a soon-to-be 31-year old who has been back on North American soil for less than a full season.

While Radulov asking for eight years was extreme, Pierre LeBrun of TSN touched on the negotiations in the latest edition of Insider Trading, saying that a five-year contract would be ultimately the middle ground the two sides needed. Still a big deal to agree to, the Montreal Canadiens could front load it to give themselves a little more flexibility down the road. With the team off to face the Ottawa Senators tomorrow—in a preview of next year’s outdoor NHL100 Classic—the Atlantic Division crown is the big story in Montreal at the moment. Saturday night is the biggest game of the year for the Canadiens, and any talk of a Radulov extension will have to wait.

Alexander Radulov And The Eight-Year Ask

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After it broke last month on Hockey Night In Canada that Alexander Radulov was looking for a deal up to six-years long, many fans rolled their eyes. Sure, Radulov has had an outstanding season for the Montreal Canadiens in his return from the KHL, but it is never a good idea to give term of that length to a player on the wrong side of 30. Radulov will turn 31 in July, and will likely command upwards of $6MM per season on the open market this summer. It seemed like a bad idea, but many others wanted the team to ignore their hesitation and pay up, hoping that the current incarnation of the Canadiens could compete for a Stanley Cup over the next few years and make it worth it.

Then, when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet relayed that the six years might actually be the low end of Radulov’s ask, people started to laugh. Eight years? Surely Marc Bergevin wouldn’t give him something like that, not at his age. Today there was a report out of TSN that Radulov’s agent has indeed put forth an eight-year demand to the Montreal front office. While clearly that still just a starting point, and as Friedman puts it “common negotiation strategy is not to undercut yourself, so the first ask is always big,” that does seem like an absurd starting point for a player who would turn 39 a few days after they stop paying him. Alexander Radulov

So even if the eight-year ask is a starting point that Radulov is willing to come down from, let’s look at the six year bottom end as the eventual deal he’ll receive. The Canadiens currently have only two players under contract for more than the next four seasons, Andrew Shaw—who will be paid $3.9MM until 2022—and Shea Weber. Weber’s deal, signed under the old CBA, will see him cause a cap-hit of just over $7.85MM each season until 2026. That contract is often pointed to as one of the worst in the league, and it doesn’t look great, but remember that after next year the actual salary paid out drops to $6MM per season from 2018-22, and then down to just $1MM per year for the last three seasons. If Weber declines but the Canadiens need the cap space, they’ll be able to trade him to a team that needs help getting to the cap floor, without costing them much in return.

It’s something to think about with Radulov’s new deal. If structured similarly (though not exactly the same due to harsher restrictions on salary discrepancy), the Canadiens could take on relatively little risk over the final years of the deal, while paying Radulov most of the deal up front. Fans are likely much less worried about the actual salary paid to the player, than the cap-hit down the road. The Canadiens are clearly wealthy enough to do it if they so decide.

Radulov wants certainty, sure,  and no-movement clauses are included in almost all the free agent deals around the league. But as we’ve seen time and time again, they are often waived near the end of a player’s career so he can go to a better situation. Radulov would likely be no different, and the Canadiens could move him at the right price. In today’s NHL where the gap between cap-floor teams and cap-ceiling teams continues to grow through salary manipulation, big market teams like Montreal can afford to give out deals that pay a little more upfront to keep their talent around. The smaller markets benefit by acquiring draft and prospect assets when the time comes, and both find parity in different ways.

So when you hear about Radulov’s huge ask, don’t fret. As long as they play their cards right in the negotiating room, they won’t be left with a 36-year old Radulov destroying their cap situation. They’ll just be able to remember a 31-year old playmaker who made their top-line more dangerous than it has been in years.

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