Alexander Radulov And The Eight-Year Ask
After it broke last month on Hockey Night In Canada that Alexander Radulov was looking for a deal up to six-years long, many fans rolled their eyes. Sure, Radulov has had an outstanding season for the Montreal Canadiens in his return from the KHL, but it is never a good idea to give term of that length to a player on the wrong side of 30. Radulov will turn 31 in July, and will likely command upwards of $6MM per season on the open market this summer. It seemed like a bad idea, but many others wanted the team to ignore their hesitation and pay up, hoping that the current incarnation of the Canadiens could compete for a Stanley Cup over the next few years and make it worth it.
Then, when Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet relayed that the six years might actually be the low end of Radulov’s ask, people started to laugh. Eight years? Surely Marc Bergevin wouldn’t give him something like that, not at his age. Today there was a report out of TSN that Radulov’s agent has indeed put forth an eight-year demand to the Montreal front office. While clearly that still just a starting point, and as Friedman puts it “common negotiation strategy is not to undercut yourself, so the first ask is always big,” that does seem like an absurd starting point for a player who would turn 39 a few days after they stop paying him. 
So even if the eight-year ask is a starting point that Radulov is willing to come down from, let’s look at the six year bottom end as the eventual deal he’ll receive. The Canadiens currently have only two players under contract for more than the next four seasons, Andrew Shaw—who will be paid $3.9MM until 2022—and Shea Weber. Weber’s deal, signed under the old CBA, will see him cause a cap-hit of just over $7.85MM each season until 2026. That contract is often pointed to as one of the worst in the league, and it doesn’t look great, but remember that after next year the actual salary paid out drops to $6MM per season from 2018-22, and then down to just $1MM per year for the last three seasons. If Weber declines but the Canadiens need the cap space, they’ll be able to trade him to a team that needs help getting to the cap floor, without costing them much in return.
It’s something to think about with Radulov’s new deal. If structured similarly (though not exactly the same due to harsher restrictions on salary discrepancy), the Canadiens could take on relatively little risk over the final years of the deal, while paying Radulov most of the deal up front. Fans are likely much less worried about the actual salary paid to the player, than the cap-hit down the road. The Canadiens are clearly wealthy enough to do it if they so decide.
Radulov wants certainty, sure, and no-movement clauses are included in almost all the free agent deals around the league. But as we’ve seen time and time again, they are often waived near the end of a player’s career so he can go to a better situation. Radulov would likely be no different, and the Canadiens could move him at the right price. In today’s NHL where the gap between cap-floor teams and cap-ceiling teams continues to grow through salary manipulation, big market teams like Montreal can afford to give out deals that pay a little more upfront to keep their talent around. The smaller markets benefit by acquiring draft and prospect assets when the time comes, and both find parity in different ways.
So when you hear about Radulov’s huge ask, don’t fret. As long as they play their cards right in the negotiating room, they won’t be left with a 36-year old Radulov destroying their cap situation. They’ll just be able to remember a 31-year old playmaker who made their top-line more dangerous than it has been in years.
The Best Deal Of The Offseason: Brad Marchand
When you think back on any signing season, your mind immediately goes to the big deals handed out to free agents. This season saw over $600MM dollars handed out on the first day of free agency, and was followed by a lucrative summer for tons of players. Because of the lack of a superstar name—thanks Steven, you couldn’t just wait another couple of days?—second-tier all-stars were given incredibly lucrative contracts. Recently, our Zach Leach took a look back at July 1st and the mistakes teams made, handing out term and money to players who were perhaps already over the hill.
But this offseason’s best deal may not have come until much later in the summer. In fact it didn’t happen in the summer at all, but on September 26th just a few weeks before the Boston Bruins would start their season. The Bruins were getting ready for their preseason debut against the Columbus Blue Jackets—a game they would lose in a shootout—while two thirds of their top line was prepping for the World Cup of Hockey final in Toronto.
It was that morning of the 26th that Bob McKenzie of TSN would report that the Bruins had completed a contract extension with Brad Marchand that would see him stay in Boston for another eight years. He would be paid $6.125MM each season with several different clauses attached. Even though he was starring at the World Cup alongside Sidney Crosby—and would score the tournament winning goal just a few days later, shorthanded with 44 seconds left—many people thought the deal was a huge overpay. In fact, the replies to McKenzie’s tweet are mixed at best, with it being hard to understand the value Marchand brought to the Bruins.
Snapshots: Canadiens, Trouba, Andersen
The Canadiens received some good news and some bad news on the injury front today. Right winger Alexander Radulov skated on the second line in practice today and could be ready to return to the lineup tomorrow against the Oilers, notes Marc-Antoine Godin of La Presse. Radulov is Montreal’s second leading point getter this season with 46 points in 63 games and would be a welcome addition to a team that has struggled to score with consistency over the past few weeks.
Carey Price (flu) also returned to practice but the team announced via Twitter that left winger Paul Byron is now under the weather. Byron is in the midst of a career season and sits second on the team in goals with 16. The team also revealed (Twitter link) that center Tomas Plekanec skated with a non-contact jersey which would put his status for tomorrow in question. Plekanec has missed the last two games due to an upper body injury.
Other notes from around the league:
- Although it wasn’t all that long ago that he was involved in a contract dispute, talk has already shifted to the possible contract extension that Winnipeg’s Jacob Trouba could be eligible to sign as of July. The blueliner mentioned to Mike Sawatzky of the Winnipeg Free Press that he hasn’t given much thought to a new contract as of yet. Trouba had been hoping to be dealt earlier this season but wound up settling for a two year bridge deal and said at that time that he had rescinded his trade request. The injury to Tyler Myers allowed the 23 year old to play on his natural side as desired and he has responded with what is shaping up to be a career season.
- Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen will set a career high in games played tonight against the Hurricanes with 55. He’s likely to see the bulk of the workload the rest of the season as well which should have him up near the 70 game mark when all is said and done. While the potential for fatigue is certainly a valid concern, Andersen told Mark Zwolinski of the Toronto Star that he isn’t tired nor is he dealing with a lingering injury. The 27 year old is in his first season with the Maple Leafs after being acquired in the offseason from Anaheim and aside from the beginning of the year, has given the team high quality goaltending and is a big reason why they remain in the thick of the playoff race.
Snapshots: Canadiens, Ducks, Flames
The Montreal Canadiens are cruising, winners of six straight games and leading the Atlantic by six points. They’ll have to continue to play short handed for a while though, as Alexander Radulov, Tomas Plekanec and Brian Flynn are all likely out for tomorrow’s matchup against the Calgary Flames. None of the three practiced this morning due to varying injuries, but the Canadiens are carrying enough players to fill their role should they be held out.
Radulov and Plekanec were both absent yesterday when the team slipped by the Vancouver Canucks in overtime, and Flynn was injured during the first period and did not return. In their absence, Andrew Shaw led the forwards in ice time with over 22 minutes, seven more than his average this season. They’ll likely ask Shaw to step up again tomorrow if all three are out, though perhaps Micheal McCarron will draw back in and take some of that weight.
- John Gibson has been out since February 20th for the Anaheim Ducks, but Eric Stephens of the Orange County Register reports that he is with the team on their current road trip. The Ducks will face the Chicago Blackhawks and St. Louis Blues on back to back nights starting tomorrow, and could definitely use Gibson in one of the games. In his absence Jonathan Bernier has shouldered the load admirably, but saw a slip last night against Nashville. Asking him to play back to backs would be extreme, and would likely turn to Jhonas Enroth against the Blues if Gibson isn’t ready.
- The Calgary Flames have seen a rejuvenated Micheal Ferland since moving him onto a line with Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau and now they’ll insert him periodically onto the first powerplay unit as well according to Pat Steinberg of Sportsnet. The young winger has continued to compete physically all over the ice and has five goals in his last seven games. Trailing only Troy Brouwer in hits on the club despite playing more than five minutes less a game than him, Ferland can create space for skilled players just by being on the ice with them.
- Jannik Hansen finally showed up in San Jose after dealing with visa issues since his trade from the Vancouver Canucks. He was immediately rewarded with time on the first line according to Curtis Pashelka of the Mercury News. It looks like he’ll skate alongside Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski for his first game tomorrow night. With Kevin Labanc sent down, an opening was created beside the Sharks top duo and Hansen will get a crack at it to begin his San Jose career.
Atlantic Notes: Cassidy, Radulov, Plekanec, Carrier, Kulikov
The Bruins have played their way right back into the thick of the postseason chase under interim head coach Bruce Cassidy, going 8-2 in his first ten games behind the bench heading into play on Monday night. Accordingly, CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty suggests that the time is right for GM Don Sweeney to lift the interim title and make him the full-time head coach.
Shortly after the trade deadline, Sweeney told reporters that he’s open to lifting the tag at the end of the season although he left the window open to do so later this season if he feels the time is right. Haggerty argues that if the GM is already content with the idea of making the change more of a permanent one, it should be done sooner than later so there’s no opportunity for a distraction during the stretch run.
This is Cassidy’s second stint as a head coach after holding the job for parts of two seasons with Washington more than a decade ago.
More from the Atlantic:
- The Canadiens announced via their Twitter account that Alexander Radulov is likely to miss his second straight game against the Canucks tomorrow with a lower body injury sustained after blocking a shot last week. The Russian right winger has returned to the NHL with a bang this season and sits second on Montreal in scoring with 46 points in 63 games; his 31 assists lead the team. Additionally, the team noted that center Tomas Plekanec is listed as day-to-day although the nature of his injury is undisclosed.
- Sabres left winger William Carrier is set to miss his 17th straight game tomorrow against the Flyers, notes John Vogl of The Buffalo News. It doesn’t appear a return is imminent either as he has yet to start skating as the bruise on his knee is not hearing anywhere near the rate the team was hoping for. Defenseman Dmitry Kulikov is also expected to sit that game out with a concussion.
Alexander Radulov Out With Lower Body Injury
As the Montreal Canadiens prepare to face the New York Rangers tonight in what very well could be a preview of a first-round playoff series, they do so without star forward Alexander Radulov. Radulov is considered day-to-day with a lower body injury and is out of the lineup tonight. The big winger blocked a P.K. Subban shot in the Canadiens’ last game, and while it was likely much appreciated by new coach Claude Julien, it also is likely the cause of his current absence.
Radulov has had a remarkable comeback season in 2016-17, his first full NHL season since 2007-08, after coming over from the KHL this summer. Criticized at first for giving the Russian enigma a $5.75MM contract, the deal has paid off for Montreal as Radulov has scored 15 goals and added 31 assists for 46 points, just 12 points off his NHL career-high 58 set almost a decade ago with the Nashville Predators. Radulov trails only captain Max Pacioretty in scoring on the Atlantic-leading Canadiens. Offensive depth has been an issue all season for the Habs, but they would have been in even deeper trouble without Radulov. The two sides are rumored to have already agreed upon an extension, but don’t expect an announcement until after the Expansion Draft.
While Radulov rests for the next few games in all likelihood, the Canadiens will get to see what their newly-acquired muscle can do. With a right wing spot opened up, former Colorado Avalanche bruiser Andreas Martinsen will draw into the lineup tonight. Also making his debut is Steve Ott, as he replaces rookie Michael McCarron in the lineup. The latter move may not go over as well as the former, but the new-look Habs will be interesting to watch regardless.
Evening Snapshots: Radulov, Fleury, Oilers
If not for a certain one-for-one swap in late June, Alexander Radulov would have been the most fascinating move of the summer for the Montreal Canadiens.
Radulov spent the better part of eight seasons in the KHL, with two controversial stints in Nashville, before signing a one-year, $5.75MM contract with the Canadiens. The term suggested this was very much a “show-me” contract, and show them he has. Radulov has been one of the Canadiens best players, with 42 points in 59 games thus far. Now, the Canadiens will have to lock up their Russian star long-term.
They won’t be the only team with interest in the big winger. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reported that Radulov is a “strong position” to negotiate with the Canadiens (link in French). Radulov and T.J. Oshie are the only big names under the age of 35 set to hit unrestricted free agency. The KHL is also an outside option for Radulov, but staying in the NHL with Montreal appears to be his first choice.
[Related: PHR’s Midseason UFA Power Rankings]
This advantage give Radulov “every reason” to wait until July 1st, according Lavoie. Even though he’s expressed interest in staying in Montreal, this summer is likely his last chance to hit a home run in free agency. His former coach and friend Barry Trotz suggested he would be “shocked” if Radulov didn’t end up signing long-term in Montreal. Last Saturday, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported that Radulov wants to sign long-term, perhaps even looking for a six-year pact. That would take him to age 37, which might make the Canadiens uncomfortable. Power forwards tend to drop off a cliff sometime in their mid-thirties, so GM Marc Bergevin would be taking a risk to sign Radulov for that kind of term.
Kypreos suggested the Canadiens could offer Radulov a five or six year contract worth somewhere around $4.5 or $5MM per season, but would need to go to the $7MM neighbourhood to keep the term to three years. The Canadiens have some money coming off their cap this summer, but have Radulov, franchise goaltender Carey Price, and captain Max Pacioretty due for new contracts in each of the next three summers. With those big money signings on the horizon, it’s no wonder that Bergevin is considered “all-in” on this playoff run.
- Despite needing to address his goaltending situation before this June’s expansion draft, Penguins GM Jim Rutherford would prefer to keep both Matt Murray and Marc-Andre Fleury for the remainder of this campaign, according to Adam Gretz of NBC Sports. Murray has been significantly better this season, and with Fleury’s no-move clause (NMC), the Penguins need to make a move to avoid losing their young starter. If Rutherford doesn’t trade Fleury before next Wednesday, then the wily GM will have to convince him to waive his NMC in the spring for either the Golden Knights or a trading partner. Two teams to watch are the Calgary Flames and Winnipeg Jets. Bob McKenzie of TSN reported on Thursday that the Flames are looking to improve their current goaltending duo of Brian Elliott and Chad Johnson; while there hasn’t been any reports of interest on the part of Winnipeg, they’re currently two points out of a wildcard spot while only one of their three goaltenders have a SV% above 0.900 (Connor Hellebuyck). Should the Jets get stable netminding, then they could be a darkhorse candidate in the Western Conference.
- Speaking of goaltenders, an interesting tidbit came out of Edmonton today regarding their 2015 acquisition of Cam Talbot. The Oilers acquired Talbot at the 2015 NHL Draft, trading three picks (2nd, 3rd, and 7th) for the then-unproven goalie and a seventh round pick. While discussing the Oilers’ interest in trading for Kevin Shattenkirk, TSN’s Frank Seravalli reported that Talbot “told the Oilers point-blank ‘don’t trade for me because I’m not going to re-sign here.'” Just six months later, Talbot signed a three-year extension to stay with the rising Oilers. Talbot has been the Oilers’ MVP (non-Connor McDavid category) with 30 wins and a 0.921 SV% in 54 games so far this season. Seravalli’s anecdote is notable as Talbot and Shattenkirk share an agent, and it shows GM Peter Chiarelli has previously been able to pitch Edmonton to players who were originally not interested in staying long-term.
Alexander Radulov Seeking Long-Term Deal
On Hockey Night In Canada between the second and third periods in the Ottawa-Toronto game, Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet reported that Montreal Canadiens forward Alexander Radulov is seeking a long-term deal that could be up to as many as six years. The Canadiens don’t necessarily want to go that long, but may do it if the AAV drops a bit.
Kypreos mentioned the possibility of a short-term deal with a much higher salary, even as much as $7MM on a three-year deal. We listed Radulov at #2 on our ranking of the Top Midseason Free Agents, and it’s clear that he would have multiple suitors should he hit the open market again this summer.
For what it’s worth Washington Capitals head coach Barry Trotz, who maintains a friendship with Radulov from his days in Nashville, recently said that he would be “shocked” if Montreal and the Russian forward didn’t come to some sort of an agreement. Trotz said that Radulov loves it in Montreal, and if he is looking for a long-term deal he may be there for a while yet.
Montreal has a few contracts coming off the books next year, including David Desharnais and Andrei Markov but also will need to re-sign Alex Galchenyuk this summer. While he’s had a very up and down season, hit by injuries and inconsistency, Galchenyuk should get a very substantial upgrade to his current $2.8MM hit, especially if he gives up several free agent years.
Assigning upwards of $6MM per season to a soon-to-be 31-year old for more than five years would be a risky proposition regardless of his excellent production this year. The Canadiens already have Shea Weber on the wrong side of 30 earning a ton of money for a long time (nine more years in fact) and Jeff Petry signed until he’s 34.
It does seem like there is a deal to be worked out between the two sides, after Montreal convinced Radulov to come back from the KHL, but how long and for how many millions is still very much up in the air.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Atlantic Notes: Maple Leafs, Bruins, Canadiens
For the Maple Leafs, the past calendar year has been one of wild swings. In the last 12 months (and a few days) the team dealt team captain Dion Phaneuf to Ottawa for cap relief, finished last in the NHL, drafted the future face of the franchise and vaulted themselves into playoff contention. In the last few weeks though the team has held on tight as the roller-coaster has tilted up on two wheels.
The team currently sits tied with Philadelphia for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, but has had trouble keeping the puck out of their own net in recent weeks. After two back-to-back shutouts over Calgary and Detroit in late January, the team has allowed 30 goals in eight games and gone 2-4-2. Kristen Shilton of TSN reports on their mediocrity and where the team’s mindset is as they try to turn things around. One of the positive notes has been the play of William Nylander, who after an early season demotion to the fourth line has recharged his defensive tanks and become a leader on a shutdown line with Nazem Kadri and Leo Komarov.
The team has no time to settle in though, with a condensed schedule and eight games in the fifteen nights remaining in February. They’ll take on the New York Islanders tomorrow on home ice.
- The Boston Bruins are 3-0 with their new head coach, getting a boost from the new voice of Bruce Cassidy behind the bench. They tore apart their rival Montreal Canadiens last night 4-0 and have put some space between them and the struggling Maple Leafs. Perhaps the coaching move was the right choice, but they’re in for a tough road trip when they come back off their mandated bye-week. The team will hit the road on the west coast with matchups against San Jose, Anaheim, Los Angeles and Dallas out of the break—a tough schedule for anyone.
- Montreal could do with a little of that coaching magic, writes Michael Traikos of the National Post. While the Bruins surge, the Canadiens flounder at the top of the Atlantic Division, now only six points ahead of the Ottawa Senators despite having played five more games. For what at one point looked like a lock for the top see in the division, Montreal now faces a tough final stretch of games. Traikos opines that Michel Therrien should be fired like his Boston counterpart, despite still holding onto that top seed. For now he remains with the team an they’ll come out of their break against the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday.
- Hopefully they will return with some help, says Ken Campbell of The Hockey News. In his latest column, Campbell examines the Canadiens need for some secondary scoring help behind the top duo of Max Pacioretty and Alexander Radulov. After Colorado Avalanche GM Joe Sakic and AGM Chris McFarland were seen in attendance at the Bruins-Habs matchup on Sunday, hope sprung in Montreal about a possible addition of one of the two young players on the Avalanche trade-block. Both Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog would provide a nice punch to the second line for the Habs, though the asking price remains as high as ever.
Barry Trotz Thinks Alexander Radulov Will Re-Sign In Montreal
After signing for a relatively modest one-year contract this summer with the Montreal Canadiens, Alexander Radulov has returned to the NHL with a vengeance. The former Nashville Predators forward came back from the KHL for $5.75MM, and has performed exceptionally well. 41 points in 52 games and the question has now become where will he sign this summer when he becomes an unrestricted free agent once again.
While Pierre McGuire was speaking to Mitch Gallo on TSN 690 in Montreal, he related a conversation he had with Washington Capitals head coach Barry Trotz. “I would be shocked if Radulov doesn’t sign with Montreal, he loves it there” said Trotz, making it clear he things the Russian playmaker will stay long-term in the French-Canadian city. Trotz likely has a bit of inside information on Radulov, as the two spent parts of three seasons together in Nashville after Trotz and the Predators drafted him 15th overall in 2004.
For Montreal, signing Radulov would be a big boost to their offensive production going into next season. With Tomas Plekanec slowing down considerably, and David Deharnais looking like a shadow of his former 50-point self, the Habs have serious question marks up front for next season. Radulov has looked like the elite player many believed he was during the short time he was in the NHL, skating mostly beside Max Pacioretty and Phillip Danault – though when Alex Galchenyuk is healthy, he is an obvious fit for the top line.
We ranked Radulov second among our mid-season free agents, stating that he had already done enough to warrant a long-term deal with someone. Be advised Montreal fans, that just because Trotz knows he loves it there, doesn’t mean he will definitely re-sign. If we’ve come to learn anything about professional athletes (and really anyone in general) it’s that money dictates where they go. If the Canadiens don’t offer Radulov the best (or close to the best) offer, he’ll be taking his talents somewhere else. The KHL is always an option, though it seems as though he’s made a decision to come and try to win in North America for the time being.