Forgotten Futures: Checking In On Picks 3-5

While Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine have dominated many of the headlines around the NHL since the moment they put on their respective sweaters on June 24th, 2016 there were other names picked that day that have received much less attention. Matthew Tkachuk has burst onto the scene in Calgary, recording an incredible 41 points in his rookie season (including more assists than either of the top 2) while Jakob Chychrun has steadily improved in the desert and is now logging 20 minutes a night as an 18-year old.

There were three other names taken between Laine and Tkachuk, and though their respective fan bases surely haven’t forgotten about their prized assets, drooling over the potential they bring while combing through box scores—that is if anyone combs through box scores anymore—the rest of the league might have. As we head past the trade deadline many teams look towards the future, hoping for a brighter sunrise next season and looking at comparables for their expected draft position this summer.

5th Overall Pick – Olli Juolevi (VAN)

The first defenseman picked in the draft was Olli Juolevi from the London Knights. The smooth skating defender that was heralded as a future #1 who could play in any situation has had an excellent, if a little underwhelming season for the Knights in 2016-17. Playing on a great team in front of a great goaltender, Juolevi has continued to rack up assists while being a main part of one of the stingiest defensive teams in the OHL. The Knights have allowed just 165 goals this season and Juolevi is one of the reasons why.

With 39 points in 49 games, he continues to produce in junior hockey, though a little less can be said about his performance at the World Juniors. Captaining a Finnish squad that was without almost all of their key players—including one we will speak of later—Juolevi didn’t impress much through the preliminary round. After his coach got fired midway through the tournament, Juolevi stepped up a bit but still finished with just two points in six games.

It’s hardly enough to judge him on, but Vancouver Canucks fans were likely hoping to see him take over the tournament all by himself and drag the Finnish team to the medal round. They should however be excited about the prospect that London will be in the OHL playoffs starting later this month, where Juolevi will try for a second crack at the Memorial Cup.

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Lightning, Coyotes Swap Minor Leaguers

Though not quite as exciting as the two deals yesterday, another trade has gone down in the NHL today. As the Tampa Bay Times reports, the Lightning and Arizona Coyotes have agreed on a swap of forward prospects. Heading to Tampa is Stefan Fournierwhile Jeremy Morin heads to Arizona. Neither minor leaguer is much of a threat to become an impact NHL contributor any time soon, but may be able to help their respective AHL franchises.

It’s not the first time that Morin has been on the move; far from it in fact. The 25-year-old winger was a second-round pick of the Atlanta Thrashers back in 2009, but was traded not long after in the summer of 2010. Following an 83-point season with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers, Morin was one of the main pieces that went to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Dustin Byfuglien. Morin then broke into the NHL in 2010-11 at the age of 19. However, he was used sparingly in five seasons in Chicago, recording 16 points in just 54 games. Believing that Morin had stopped developing, the Blackhawks flipped him to the Columbus Blue Jackets midway through the 2014-15 season for another struggling prospect, Tim Erixon. After just a half-season in Columbus, Morin was on the move again, heading back to Chicago alongside Artem Anisimov in the Brandon Saad trade. Chicago wasted no time in trading Morin yet again, this time in a deal that worked out much better than Erixon, a swap with the Toronto Maple Leafs for Richard PanikOnly two months later, Morin was part of a deadline deal that shipped him out of Toronto to the San Jose Sharks along with James ReimerFinally in charge of his own fate, Morin signed a one-year, two-way deal with the Lightning when free agency opened on July 1st of this summer. In 43 games this season with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, Morin has 21 points, his best minor league season since 2013-14. However, that clearly hasn’t helped him find a permanent home, as he’s on the move yet again. Morin will report to the AHL’s Tuscon Roadrunners and will likely finish the season with the team before searching for a new opportunity once again this off-season.

Fournier has not had to endure quite the same treatment. The 24-year-old signed with the Montreal Canadiens in 2013 after a strong junior career in the QMJHL and played three seasons with the organization, in the AHL and ECHL, before being traded to the Coyotes alongside Jarred Tinordi in a three-team deal last season. Fournier has done little to help the Coyotes, or Roadrunners for that matter, in 2016-17 with just four points in 29 AHL games. With the move to Tampa Bay, more accurately the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch, perhaps Fournier can find the scoring touch he had in juniors that he has been unable to find in the pros. Fournier will be an unrestricted free agent this summer, so the remainder of the season should act as a tryout for an extension with the Lightning.

Snapshots: Penguins, Capitals, Jones

After Jim Rutherford pulled off his latest deadline deal, acquiring Ron Hainsey for a second-round draft pick today, he met the media to answer questions about his team and rest of the trade deadline. At the same time, Washington Capitals GM Brian MacLellan was meeting with media to discuss his team’s aspirations at the deadline. Here are the highlights from both, plus other news from the hockey world.

OHL Prospect Watch: Tippett Paces The 2017 Class

Even though many teams and fans have the upcoming trade deadline on their minds, front offices everywhere are starting to sort out their draft rankings for the upcoming class. The depth in any given year affects how hard teams pursue extra selections, and what round they push for. This season, while the top of the draft doesn’t have the franchise talent of the past two (though Nico Hischier is continuing to turn heads as he inches closer to the top of boards) it does have quite a bit of talent throughout the first and second rounds.

Over at the OHL Prospects blog, they’ve released their annual mid-season media/scout ranking for the Ontario Hockey League, a list that is voted on by people like Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Tony Ambrosio of TSN and Corey Pronman of ESPN among many others. Their list ranks the top ten—with a few honorable mentions—with breakdowns from each writer.

Leading the way is Owen Tippett of the Mississauga Steelheads, a player I’ve mentioned in the past as someone to watch at the upcoming draft. None of the voters had Tippett lower than second, and he got 11/17 first place votes easily pacing the group. Tippett is a natural goal scoring talent that looks like he would have a chance at contributing right away in 2017-18, with an NHL-ready shot from anywhere in the offensive zone. His size and speed have him dominating the OHL ranks already, even more so than teammate Michael McLeod who went 12th overall to the Devils last season.

Other than Tippett, the OHL class has (like most seasons) a lot of talent up front including second-ranked Gabriel Vilardi who might jump over the Mississauga winger because of his position. Centers are often taken higher in the draft, and Vilardi offers size down the middle. With the Windsor Spitfires hosting this season’s Memorial Cup, Vilardi will be guaranteed a chance to show off on junior’s biggest stage.

Among the other eight players ranked six of them are forwards including Matthew Strome, the latest child in the hockey playing family. Like his brothers, Strome is a big skilled forward that can play at both ends of the rink, but has a bit more grit in the corners and a mean streak that the other two don’t possess. His future in the NHL isn’t guaranteed, but the possibility of an excellent checking winger with some big offensive upside will still get him taken relatively early in the draft.

It’ll be interesting to see when the first OHL player comes off the board in Chicago on June 23rd, as the top picks currently look like they’ll be (in some order) Hischier from the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL, Nolan Patrick of the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL and Timothy Liljegren from Timra of the Swedish second league. Last season the OHL had to wait until #5 to send up a player when Olli Juolevi was selected by Vancouver.

Prospect Snapshots: DeBrincat, Second Round, Sergachev

Since Chicago Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat was cut from the United States World Junior team in late December, he’s determined to prove that it was a mistake. When he was dropped, he was the OHLs leading goal-scorer and trailed only teammate Taylor Raddysh (who played for Canada at the tournament) in points. He hasn’t slowed down at all, scoring four more points today for the Erie Otters and extending his lead in the scoring race. He now has 92 points in 45 games and is a clear leader in goals scored.

The Blackhawks signed DeBrincat to a three-year entry-level contract earlier this season, and it looks like he’ll be making an impact in professional hockey as soon as he makes the leap. His 39th-overall selection looks like a steal now, as he’s about to post his third straight 100+ point season in the OHL and possibly help his team to a Memorial Cup.

  • Over at Fan Rag Sports, Hannah Stuart took a look at five potential second-round steals in the upcoming draft. It even includes one Erie Otter rookie who will be getting a ton of extra ice time next season when DeBrincat, Raddysh and Ryan Strome all leave for greener pastures. Ivan Lodnia, the Otters’ young sniper has 21 goals and 45 points in his OHL debut. She also mentions Boston University’s Jake Oettinger, who sat in the press box at the World Juniors behind Tyler Parsons and Joseph Woll on Team USA. Despite being ranked 3rd on Central Scouting’s goaltender list, Stuart believes big things are ahead for the NCAA standout.
  • The Montreal Canadiens are in the thick of trade talks all around the league, and Darren Dreger of TSN says that GM Marc Bergevin is “all in” on upgrading this season. That has sparked some talk about the possibility of dealing last summer’s first-round pick Mikhail Sergachev, but The Fourth Period has shut that down. The report says that while Sergachev is basically untouchable, Noah Juulsen may be in play when it comes to big upgrades down the middle for the NHL club. Juulsen is the captain of the Everett Silvertips in the WHL and was Montreal’s first-round selection in 2015.

Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract

True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.

This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.

So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.

It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.

It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.

Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress).  While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.

Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.

For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.

2017 Prospect Update: Patrick, Liljegren, Hischier

Amazingly, the 2017 NHL entry draft is now less than five months away, and teams are starting to really dig into their draft boards to find that next superstar talent. The draft is an odd one this year, since the top two players have faced injury and inconsistency and didn’t take part in the World Juniors at all.

Nolan Patrick is still the consensus top talent and should go first overall, but has missed a huge chunk of his season due to injury. He make a triumphant comeback in early January with a four-point night, and is about to take part in the top prospects game tomorrow. The centerman from Winnipeg has 17 points in 11 games this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, and will have front offices drooling over him come this summer.

An interesting connection is that of Kelly McCrimmon, who is now the assistant general manager in Vegas and was the GM in Brandon when Patrick made his debut. The Golden Knights have a chance in the lottery equal to that of the third-last place team, giving them a real chance to make him their franchise’s first selection. While his season hasn’t gone the way one had hoped, his stock hasn’t fallen nearly enough for him to be challenged for the top spot – yet.

That second spot is becoming a bit more contested though, with Timothy Liljegren not being the lock he once was thought as. The Swedish defenseman that some say has a ceiling as high as Erik Karlsson struggled in the first division before being loaned down to Timra. While this by no means hinders his development, with the explosion of a few other names it’s no guarantee that he goes second. Like Jesse Puljujarvi last season, if a team believes they have a bigger need a different position Liljegren may drop a spot. Anyone that gets him will be excited, as he can do everything on the ice and should be a star in the league for a long time.

With the top two prospects out of the World Junior’s, the stage was open for other names to impress scouts and perhaps vault themselves into the discussion at the tops of draft boards. Nico Hischier did just that, showing the world that he should be considered as one of the very top prospects in the world. Some draft boards likely already have him ahead of Liljegren, and his play for the Halifax Mooseheads hasn’t changed that. With 68 points in 40 games as a rookie, Hischier only turned 18 three weeks ago and is already a dominant centerman. He’ll undoubtedly set the record as the highest-drafted Swiss player ever, topping Nino Niederreiter‘s fifth-overall selection.

One more name to keep an eye on is Owen Tippett. The young forward is currently second in the OHL with 36 goals and has elite scoring senses from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is flying up draft boards and may even make it into the top five by the year’s end. Though he plays the wing, he may even jump over center ice prospects like Casey Mittlestadt and Gabriel Vilardi, both of whom are projected for the top-10.

Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16

The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.

Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline,  but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.

February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.

Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.

While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.

Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.

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What To Watch For: AHL All-Star Game, CHL Top Prospects Game

Once all the All-Star festivities in Los Angeles have died down on Sunday, hockey fans will be left facing the worst kind of Monday: one without NHL action. However, those with an eye on the future, interested in watching some future NHL All-Stars, will be happy to know that all is not lost. Both the American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star Game, featuring the best of the best of those on the cusp of being NHL regulars, and the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Top Prospects game, showcasing the top 40 2017 draft-eligible prospects across the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and Western Hockey League (WHL), are set to take place on Monday night. Here is a preview of what to watch for in these two talented contests:

The AHL All-Star Game, in the same mold as the NHL’s new model, includes a skills competition on Sunday night and a 3-0n-3 tournament between divisional squads on Monday night. Many current NHL stars got their start in the minor leagues and found All-Star-caliber success before taking advantage of their opportunities at the next level, and 2017 should be no different. So who are the future phenoms participating? Though he has yet to be demoted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, it is expected that Jake Guentzel will get to participate in the All-Star game and no player has had quite the impact that Guentzel has in 2016-17. Not only an All-Star, but also a first-year pro, Guentzel has made the transition from the NCAA to the AHL (and NHL) a seamless one. After scoring 46 points in 35 games for the University of Nebraska-Omaha a year ago, Guentzel has an almost identical 42 points in 33 games in the AHL this season. A player in a similar position is Guentzel’s Atlantic Division teammate Zane McIntyre of the Boston Bruins. McIntyre was promoted to the backup in Boston due to his amazing AHL success and has yet to be demoted, but is likely to get his chance to shine at the All-Star game. McIntyre is 10-0 in AHL play this season, with a league-best .951 save percentage and 1.41 goals against average in 12 appearances. The other Atlantic Division goalie, and Guenztel’s actual teammate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is Tristan Jarry, who has a .920 SV% and 2.22 GAA in 26 games. Yet another member of the stacked Atlantic team is the Philadelphia Flyers’ Jordan Weal, who has 42 points in 38 games. Outside of the Atlantic, St. Louis Blues prospect Kenny Agostino leads the AHL with 40 assists and 57 points for the Chicago Wolves. The 24-year-old is working hard for another shot at the NHL and will get the chance to further show what he can do at the All-Star game for the Central squad. Danny O’Regan of the San Jose Barracuda, who has gotten a chance to play in a few games this season for the team down the hall, trails only Guentzel in rookie scoring with 36 points in 32 games, while recent Arizona Coyotes call-up Christian Fischer sits in third with 32 points in 31 games and will join him on the Pacific Division team. Finally, keep an eye on defenseman Matt Taormina of the Syracuse Crunch, a Tampa Bay Lightning prospect who leads all AHL blue liners in points and will be dangerous for the North Division unit. The AHL All-Star game brings together the best players who are just an injury or slump away from making a difference in the NHL and it promises to provide a lot of skill and exciting action.

For those looking even further into the future, especially fans of teams with strong lottery chances in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, the CHL Top Prospects Game is for you. Featuring the best players in the CHL, the conglomerate of the three league’s that provide the majority of NHL talent, the All-Star game of sorts guarantees to provide an insight into at least 20 upcoming first-round picks. The game features Team Don Cherry and Team Bobby Orr, comprised of randomly selected players within NHL Central Scouting’s top 40 prospects. Captaining Team Cherry, and getting his first chance at real spotlight after missing much of the early season, is presumptive #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick. The big center has 17 points in 11 games for the Brandon Wheat Kings, but his limited action hasn’t stopped many from naming him the best available player. He’ll be joined by Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississigua Steelheads, the top-scoring draft-eligible player in the OHL, historically the best of the three leagues. Another OHL star and suspected top-ten pick, Gabriel Vilardi of the Windsor Spitfires, will skate with team, as will Maxime Comtois of the QMJHL’s Victoriaville Tigres, ranked No. 15 by Central Scouting. Rounding out the squad is defenseman Callan Footeson of former NHLer Adam Foote and one of the top defenseman available in 2017. Team Bobby Orr will be headed up by Swiss star Nico Hischierwho excelled at the World Juniors and has kept it going with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads to the tune of 67 points in 39 games. Hischier’s alternate captains will be center Michael Rasmussen of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, who has flown up the rankings to No. 6 overall, and another top blue line prospect, big Nicholas Haguealso of the OHL’s Steelheads. Other WHL superstars Cody Glass of the Portland Winterhawks and Nikita Popugaev of the Moose Jaw Warriors round out a deep forward group, while the OHL Spitfires’ goalie Michael DiPietro in net presents another potential first-rounder. There will be no shortage of action in this contest, the best option to see top draft prospects prior to their selection in June.

Snapshots: McDavid Effect, Tortorella, Van Riemsdyk

In 2012-13, Eerie Otters forward J.P. Labardo scored a career-high 62 points. The next season, Otters forward Dane Fox scored a whopping 64 goals in 67 games, more than his previous four seasons’ combined. What do these sudden offensive outbursts have in common? Connor McDavid.

You’re forgiven if you haven’t heard of either of these men. Labardo is out of hockey while Fox is in the ECHL. But they both demonstrate what could be called “The McDavid Effect.”

When McDavid turned pro, struggling former first-overall pick Nail Yakupov had 10 points in 13 games playing with McDavid, but posted just 13 points in his next 47 games without McDavid. Now, Patrick Maroon is six goals above his career-high in just 50 games, mostly on McDavid’s wing.

National Post scribe Michael Traikos mentions those four men as shining examples of beneficiaries to playing with McDavid. Oilers coach Todd McLellan doesn’t want to take anything away from the effort Maroon has put in to improve, but adds that “playing with Connor helps. He has a tendency to make players around him better and that’s what superstars do.”

Maroon’s success is likely a result of being at the right-place at the right-time. He’s finally put in the off-season work: he lost 20 lbs over the summer and gained the step necessary to play with the speedy McDavid. Maroon told Traikos that he doesn’t “just skate around and expect [McDavid] to pass the puck to me… There’s a lot more to it.” McDavid praised Maroon as “one of the best forecheckers in the league.”

Regardless of who is on his wing, one of McDavid’s best attributes is his unselfish ability to improve those around him, and that should lead to more players being interested in the surging Oilers.

  • The Columbus Blue Jackets will be without their head coach tonight. The team’s website announced that John Tortorella has returned to Columbus “due to a family emergency.” He will also miss the upcoming NHL All-Star game, where he was scheduled to coach the Metropolitan Division. Tortorella says he did not make the decision lightly and he hopes to back next week. Earlier today, it was announced that Blue Jackets forward Cam Atkinson would join Seth Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky in Los Angeles for the All-Star festivities.
  • While some hockey insiders believe that the Maple Leafs should be buyers at the trade deadline in order to make a big playoff push, there’s disagreement on who should be traded. TSN’s Dave Poulin believes the Maple Leafs should hold on to James Van Riemsdyk, despite the swirling trade rumors. While the big winger could get the team an upgrade on defense, Poulin argues that Van Riemsdyk is a veteran leader who is a perfect fit for the young Maple Leafs as they fight to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Van Riemsdyk has 39 points in 46 games and has been a great influence on rookie Mitch Marner.
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