The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those who have already been eliminated. Accordingly, it’s now time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at New Jersey.
It’s safe to say this season didn’t go as planned for the Devils. Believed to be a team primed for a bounce-back year, it ultimately didn’t happen. As a result, there’s a new GM in town as Sunny Mehta has taken over from Tom Fitzgerald. Mehta has elected to keep head coach Sheldon Keefe around, taking one big item off their checklist. Here are some other things they’ll likely be looking to go over the coming months.
Decide Nemec’s Future
Things have gone well for two of the top three picks from 2022. Juraj Slafkovsky, the top pick, has become a top-line winger in Montreal while third-overall selection Logan Cooley looks like a fixture in Utah’s lineup for the long haul. But things haven’t gone as well for the blueliner selected between those two, Simon Nemec.
After getting into 60 games as a rookie in 2023-24 while averaging nearly 20 minutes a night of playing time, it looked like Nemec had made it. But things went in the wrong direction the following year, resulting in him spending more time in the minors than in the NHL. He became a full-timer on the roster this season and returned to his rookie-season usage while chipping in with 26 points in 68 games. That’s a step in the right direction, no doubt, but is he on his way to being a core piece like the other two?
The answer to that is uncertain, which is also an apt way to describe his situation in New Jersey. Nemec is a pending restricted free agent and with the rapid escalation of salaries, it’s fair to say he’ll be eyeing a significant raise from the $855K base salary he had this season. Potentially anticipating a tough negotiation, Fitzgerald was listening to calls on the youngster at the trade deadline with no deal coming to fruition. Nemec, meanwhile, had expressed frustration about his role in the past with recent conflicting reports suggesting that he might still be unhappy with his situation.
With how things went up and down on his rookie deal, it’s hard to see both sides agreeing on a long-term contract at a cap hit that’s comfortable for everyone. A bridge deal makes sense; AFP Analytics pegs a two-year bridge deal checking in around $4.4MM per season which is still on the higher side for someone who wasn’t a regular not that long ago. But, in this cap environment, some of these future bridge contracts are going to be on the high side.
If Mehta isn’t sold on Nemec’s upside or they’re too far apart in contract talks, a trade could still be on the horizon. A 22-year-old high pick who’s a right-shot defenseman is bound to have considerable trade value and he’d undoubtedly yield a strong return. Is that more valuable to the Devils than what they believe Nemec will be able to provide? They need to decide the answer to that this offseason.
Work On Hischier Extension
When Nico Hischier signed a seven-year, $50.75MM extension after his sophomore year in 2018-19, the move seemed a little risky. The salary cap was much lower back then, bypassing bridge contracts wasn’t as widely common as it is now, and a 47-point showing in his sophomore year wasn’t necessarily screaming ‘big contract’. That deal has certainly worked out quite well for New Jersey and with the captain set to enter the final season of that deal starting in July, he will be eligible for a contract extension at that time.
Hischier has only surpassed the 70-point mark once in his career (when he reached 80 in 2022-23) but he has notched between 60 and 69 points four times in the last five seasons. That type of offensive consistency is quite coveted, especially for centers. Meanwhile, he has been a Selke Trophy finalist and finished fourth in voting over the past five years as well. That type of defensive consistency is also quite coveted. Between that and the projected salary cap spikes, the 27-year-old is heading for quite a sizable raise on his next contract.
What type of price tag could he plausibly fetch? Let’s start by looking at the cap percentage. When he signed his current deal, Hischier received 8.9% of the cap. Forecasting that against the projected 2027-28 Upper Limit of around $113.5MM, that would put him at $10.1MM per season. Considering his current contract had four RFA years on it (his next one won’t have any) and his status in the league as a strong two-way center, it’s fair to say $10.1MM feels like the absolute minimum. Adding a million or two more to that number is a very realistic possibility. If Mehta doesn’t want to pay that (which would be a surprise, given his importance to the team), someone else undoubtedly will.
With Hischier signed through next season, this isn’t something that necessarily has to be completed this summer. But with a mid-September cutoff for an eight-year extension (when the new CBA fully kicks in), that stands as a bit of a pressure point for negotiations. And if the two sides are so far apart that a trade becomes likely (not a likely scenario), it’s better to know that now than in-season. But even with it not necessarily being overly urgent, expect this to be a big item on their summer checklist.
Clear Defensive Logjam
In the NHL, from a roster-building perspective, there are good problems to have and bad problems to have. The state of their back end is a good one. When their defensive group got fully healthy midseason, Keefe found himself rotating a few quality blueliners in and out of the lineup. That wound up seeing Dougie Hamilton get scratched with some scathing comments coming from his agent soon after, fueling trade speculation although a move never got across the finish line.
In fact, for all of the viable trade speculation surrounding their blueliners in the second half of the season, no moves were ultimately made. The logjam ultimately resolved itself when Brett Pesce landed on injured reserve right before the deadline but there’s no denying that the logjam still exists. New Jersey has $34.9MM committed to six blueliners next season, per PuckPedia. That doesn’t include Nemec so if Mehta doesn’t make a move, there’s a very good chance that the Devils will have the most expensive back end in the league next season. With less than $12MM in cap room and several roster spots to fill, moving out a defenseman works on multiple fronts.
The state of the market should work in New Jersey’s favor. Yes, other teams will know that they probably need to shed a defenseman but with the UFA class not exactly yielding a bumper crop of quality options, demand is going to outweigh supply. That should put Mehta in the driver’s seat to elicit a strong return.
It could be Hamilton getting a fresh start while clearing at least part of his $9MM cap charge off the books. It could be Nemec moving somewhere where he has a chance to play a bigger role to try to grow into the player his draft slot warranted. It could be Johnathan Kovacevic, the type of quality depth defender that stabilizes things on the third pairing but is now paid (at $4MM per season) to play a bigger role than that. All three are right-shot pieces, the side in even higher demand. If new management wants to shake up the team a bit, this is a logical spot to try to do so.
Add Firepower
Offense has been hard to come by under Keefe’s watch. They had a drop-off of 24 goals in his first season behind the bench while dropping from 12th to 20th league-wide in that department. This season, there was a similar-sized dip in scoring as they went down another 14 tallies while finishing 27th in goals scored. In two years, they’ve gone from a slightly above-average team offensively to one of the weaker ones while shedding nearly half a goal per game in the process.
Suffice it to say, this is a problem that needs to be addressed. With Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt, and Hischier, they have some quality pieces. Timo Meier has been more hit than miss since being acquired but he could still be part of the solution while Dawson Mercer, extension-eligible himself this summer, is a solid secondary piece. There’s a decent foundation to work off here.
Adding a top-six forward would certainly put them in the right direction toward trying to even get back to the middle of the pack. But beyond that, they need some more firepower in the bottom six. Evgenii Dadonov, a UFA pickup last summer, wound up being a flop, Nick Bjugstad had just two assists in 26 games after being acquired near the trade deadline, and Maxim Tsyplakov, added in the Ondrej Palat trade, had four points in 49 games between the two teams. Upgrading one or two of those lineup spots would also go a long way in helping their fortunes.
This is where clearing the defensive logjam should help. At a minimum, they’d shed enough cap space to afford an extra addition of some consequence up front. In a perfect world, it’d come in the same trade. That way, their remaining cap space could be deployed toward upgrading the back half of the forward group, allowing them to hit both parts here. That won’t turn them into a high-end offensive squad but even getting closer to the middle would be a big boost to their playoff odds next season.
Photo courtesy of Ed Mulholland-Imagn Images.