OHL Prospect Watch: Tippett Paces The 2017 Class
Even though many teams and fans have the upcoming trade deadline on their minds, front offices everywhere are starting to sort out their draft rankings for the upcoming class. The depth in any given year affects how hard teams pursue extra selections, and what round they push for. This season, while the top of the draft doesn’t have the franchise talent of the past two (though Nico Hischier is continuing to turn heads as he inches closer to the top of boards) it does have quite a bit of talent throughout the first and second rounds.
Over at the OHL Prospects blog, they’ve released their annual mid-season media/scout ranking for the Ontario Hockey League, a list that is voted on by people like Mike Morreale of NHL.com, Tony Ambrosio of TSN and Corey Pronman of ESPN among many others. Their list ranks the top ten—with a few honorable mentions—with breakdowns from each writer.
Leading the way is Owen Tippett of the Mississauga Steelheads, a player I’ve mentioned in the past as someone to watch at the upcoming draft. None of the voters had Tippett lower than second, and he got 11/17 first place votes easily pacing the group. Tippett is a natural goal scoring talent that looks like he would have a chance at contributing right away in 2017-18, with an NHL-ready shot from anywhere in the offensive zone. His size and speed have him dominating the OHL ranks already, even more so than teammate Michael McLeod who went 12th overall to the Devils last season.
Other than Tippett, the OHL class has (like most seasons) a lot of talent up front including second-ranked Gabriel Vilardi who might jump over the Mississauga winger because of his position. Centers are often taken higher in the draft, and Vilardi offers size down the middle. With the Windsor Spitfires hosting this season’s Memorial Cup, Vilardi will be guaranteed a chance to show off on junior’s biggest stage.
Among the other eight players ranked six of them are forwards including Matthew Strome, the latest child in the hockey playing family. Like his brothers, Strome is a big skilled forward that can play at both ends of the rink, but has a bit more grit in the corners and a mean streak that the other two don’t possess. His future in the NHL isn’t guaranteed, but the possibility of an excellent checking winger with some big offensive upside will still get him taken relatively early in the draft.
It’ll be interesting to see when the first OHL player comes off the board in Chicago on June 23rd, as the top picks currently look like they’ll be (in some order) Hischier from the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL, Nolan Patrick of the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL and Timothy Liljegren from Timra of the Swedish second league. Last season the OHL had to wait until #5 to send up a player when Olli Juolevi was selected by Vancouver.
Prospect Snapshots: DeBrincat, Second Round, Sergachev
Since Chicago Blackhawks prospect Alex DeBrincat was cut from the United States World Junior team in late December, he’s determined to prove that it was a mistake. When he was dropped, he was the OHLs leading goal-scorer and trailed only teammate Taylor Raddysh (who played for Canada at the tournament) in points. He hasn’t slowed down at all, scoring four more points today for the Erie Otters and extending his lead in the scoring race. He now has 92 points in 45 games and is a clear leader in goals scored.
The Blackhawks signed DeBrincat to a three-year entry-level contract earlier this season, and it looks like he’ll be making an impact in professional hockey as soon as he makes the leap. His 39th-overall selection looks like a steal now, as he’s about to post his third straight 100+ point season in the OHL and possibly help his team to a Memorial Cup.
- Over at Fan Rag Sports, Hannah Stuart took a look at five potential second-round steals in the upcoming draft. It even includes one Erie Otter rookie who will be getting a ton of extra ice time next season when DeBrincat, Raddysh and Ryan Strome all leave for greener pastures. Ivan Lodnia, the Otters’ young sniper has 21 goals and 45 points in his OHL debut. She also mentions Boston University’s Jake Oettinger, who sat in the press box at the World Juniors behind Tyler Parsons and Joseph Woll on Team USA. Despite being ranked 3rd on Central Scouting’s goaltender list, Stuart believes big things are ahead for the NCAA standout.
- The Montreal Canadiens are in the thick of trade talks all around the league, and Darren Dreger of TSN says that GM Marc Bergevin is “all in” on upgrading this season. That has sparked some talk about the possibility of dealing last summer’s first-round pick Mikhail Sergachev, but The Fourth Period has shut that down. The report says that while Sergachev is basically untouchable, Noah Juulsen may be in play when it comes to big upgrades down the middle for the NHL club. Juulsen is the captain of the Everett Silvertips in the WHL and was Montreal’s first-round selection in 2015.
Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract
True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.
This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.
So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.
It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.
It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.
Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress). While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.
Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.
For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.
2017 Prospect Update: Patrick, Liljegren, Hischier
Amazingly, the 2017 NHL entry draft is now less than five months away, and teams are starting to really dig into their draft boards to find that next superstar talent. The draft is an odd one this year, since the top two players have faced injury and inconsistency and didn’t take part in the World Juniors at all.
Nolan Patrick is still the consensus top talent and should go first overall, but has missed a huge chunk of his season due to injury. He make a triumphant comeback in early January with a four-point night, and is about to take part in the top prospects game tomorrow. The centerman from Winnipeg has 17 points in 11 games this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, and will have front offices drooling over him come this summer.
An interesting connection is that of Kelly McCrimmon, who is now the assistant general manager in Vegas and was the GM in Brandon when Patrick made his debut. The Golden Knights have a chance in the lottery equal to that of the third-last place team, giving them a real chance to make him their franchise’s first selection. While his season hasn’t gone the way one had hoped, his stock hasn’t fallen nearly enough for him to be challenged for the top spot – yet.
That second spot is becoming a bit more contested though, with Timothy Liljegren not being the lock he once was thought as. The Swedish defenseman that some say has a ceiling as high as Erik Karlsson struggled in the first division before being loaned down to Timra. While this by no means hinders his development, with the explosion of a few other names it’s no guarantee that he goes second. Like Jesse Puljujarvi last season, if a team believes they have a bigger need a different position Liljegren may drop a spot. Anyone that gets him will be excited, as he can do everything on the ice and should be a star in the league for a long time.
With the top two prospects out of the World Junior’s, the stage was open for other names to impress scouts and perhaps vault themselves into the discussion at the tops of draft boards. Nico Hischier did just that, showing the world that he should be considered as one of the very top prospects in the world. Some draft boards likely already have him ahead of Liljegren, and his play for the Halifax Mooseheads hasn’t changed that. With 68 points in 40 games as a rookie, Hischier only turned 18 three weeks ago and is already a dominant centerman. He’ll undoubtedly set the record as the highest-drafted Swiss player ever, topping Nino Niederreiter‘s fifth-overall selection.
One more name to keep an eye on is Owen Tippett. The young forward is currently second in the OHL with 36 goals and has elite scoring senses from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is flying up draft boards and may even make it into the top five by the year’s end. Though he plays the wing, he may even jump over center ice prospects like Casey Mittlestadt and Gabriel Vilardi, both of whom are projected for the top-10.
Remembering The Early Trades From 2015-16
The month between the All-Star game and the NHL trade deadline is an interesting one. While most of the action happens right at the end, even sometimes extending past the official deadline due to trade calls, sometimes big moves happen early in February.
Last season, 33 trades happened in the last few days (from February 26-29) before the deadline, but there were also seven deals that happened in the weeks immediately after the All-Star break. Those deals were just as important to the futures of their teams as any made on the day itself. Let’s look back at the seven deals made between February 9th and 25th last season.
February 9th: Toronto trades Dion Phaneuf, Matt Frattin, Casey Bailey, Ryan Rupert and Cody Donaghey to Ottawa for Jared Cowen, Colin Greening, Milan Michalek, Tobias Lindberg and a 2017 2nd-round pick.
Starting with a whopper, the Maple Leafs continued their drastic tear-down by trading their current captain and highest paid player to a cross-province and divisional rival. The Senators had been looking for another big-minute defenseman and thought Phaneuf could become that player for them.
While it hasn’t worked out perfectly for the Senators, Phaneuf has logged over 23 minutes a night since coming over and is having a fine if unspectacular season offensively this year. While his massive looks like an albatross on their books – he’ll have a cap-hit of $7MM (more than Erik Karlsson) until 2020-21 – the actual salary is much lower. The team also rid themselves of dead money in Cowen, Greening and Michalek and only had to pay the price of a middling prospect in Lindberg and what looks like a fairly late second-round pick.
Lou Lamoriello and the Maple Leafs worked some accounting magic, and have effectively rid themselves of the cap-hits for all three players, burying Greening and Michalek in the AHL and buying out Cowen after a lengthy dispute. Moving Phaneuf was an integral part of the plan going forward, and both teams are fighting for playoff spots a year later.
What To Watch For: AHL All-Star Game, CHL Top Prospects Game
Once all the All-Star festivities in Los Angeles have died down on Sunday, hockey fans will be left facing the worst kind of Monday: one without NHL action. However, those with an eye on the future, interested in watching some future NHL All-Stars, will be happy to know that all is not lost. Both the American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star Game, featuring the best of the best of those on the cusp of being NHL regulars, and the Canadian Hockey League (CHL) Top Prospects game, showcasing the top 40 2017 draft-eligible prospects across the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and Western Hockey League (WHL), are set to take place on Monday night. Here is a preview of what to watch for in these two talented contests:
The AHL All-Star Game, in the same mold as the NHL’s new model, includes a skills competition on Sunday night and a 3-0n-3 tournament between divisional squads on Monday night. Many current NHL stars got their start in the minor leagues and found All-Star-caliber success before taking advantage of their opportunities at the next level, and 2017 should be no different. So who are the future phenoms participating? Though he has yet to be demoted by the Pittsburgh Penguins, it is expected that Jake Guentzel will get to participate in the All-Star game and no player has had quite the impact that Guentzel has in 2016-17. Not only an All-Star, but also a first-year pro, Guentzel has made the transition from the NCAA to the AHL (and NHL) a seamless one. After scoring 46 points in 35 games for the University of Nebraska-Omaha a year ago, Guentzel has an almost identical 42 points in 33 games in the AHL this season. A player in a similar position is Guentzel’s Atlantic Division teammate Zane McIntyre of the Boston Bruins. McIntyre was promoted to the backup in Boston due to his amazing AHL success and has yet to be demoted, but is likely to get his chance to shine at the All-Star game. McIntyre is 10-0 in AHL play this season, with a league-best .951 save percentage and 1.41 goals against average in 12 appearances. The other Atlantic Division goalie, and Guenztel’s actual teammate in Wilkes-Barre/Scranton is Tristan Jarry, who has a .920 SV% and 2.22 GAA in 26 games. Yet another member of the stacked Atlantic team is the Philadelphia Flyers’ Jordan Weal, who has 42 points in 38 games. Outside of the Atlantic, St. Louis Blues prospect Kenny Agostino leads the AHL with 40 assists and 57 points for the Chicago Wolves. The 24-year-old is working hard for another shot at the NHL and will get the chance to further show what he can do at the All-Star game for the Central squad. Danny O’Regan of the San Jose Barracuda, who has gotten a chance to play in a few games this season for the team down the hall, trails only Guentzel in rookie scoring with 36 points in 32 games, while recent Arizona Coyotes call-up Christian Fischer sits in third with 32 points in 31 games and will join him on the Pacific Division team. Finally, keep an eye on defenseman Matt Taormina of the Syracuse Crunch, a Tampa Bay Lightning prospect who leads all AHL blue liners in points and will be dangerous for the North Division unit. The AHL All-Star game brings together the best players who are just an injury or slump away from making a difference in the NHL and it promises to provide a lot of skill and exciting action.
For those looking even further into the future, especially fans of teams with strong lottery chances in this year’s NHL Entry Draft, the CHL Top Prospects Game is for you. Featuring the best players in the CHL, the conglomerate of the three league’s that provide the majority of NHL talent, the All-Star game of sorts guarantees to provide an insight into at least 20 upcoming first-round picks. The game features Team Don Cherry and Team Bobby Orr, comprised of randomly selected players within NHL Central Scouting’s top 40 prospects. Captaining Team Cherry, and getting his first chance at real spotlight after missing much of the early season, is presumptive #1 overall pick Nolan Patrick. The big center has 17 points in 11 games for the Brandon Wheat Kings, but his limited action hasn’t stopped many from naming him the best available player. He’ll be joined by Owen Tippett of the OHL’s Mississigua Steelheads, the top-scoring draft-eligible player in the OHL, historically the best of the three leagues. Another OHL star and suspected top-ten pick, Gabriel Vilardi of the Windsor Spitfires, will skate with team, as will Maxime Comtois of the QMJHL’s Victoriaville Tigres, ranked No. 15 by Central Scouting. Rounding out the squad is defenseman Callan Foote, son of former NHLer Adam Foote and one of the top defenseman available in 2017. Team Bobby Orr will be headed up by Swiss star Nico Hischier, who excelled at the World Juniors and has kept it going with the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads to the tune of 67 points in 39 games. Hischier’s alternate captains will be center Michael Rasmussen of the WHL’s Tri-City Americans, who has flown up the rankings to No. 6 overall, and another top blue line prospect, big Nicholas Hague, also of the OHL’s Steelheads. Other WHL superstars Cody Glass of the Portland Winterhawks and Nikita Popugaev of the Moose Jaw Warriors round out a deep forward group, while the OHL Spitfires’ goalie Michael DiPietro in net presents another potential first-rounder. There will be no shortage of action in this contest, the best option to see top draft prospects prior to their selection in June.
Snapshots: McDavid Effect, Tortorella, Van Riemsdyk
In 2012-13, Eerie Otters forward J.P. Labardo scored a career-high 62 points. The next season, Otters forward Dane Fox scored a whopping 64 goals in 67 games, more than his previous four seasons’ combined. What do these sudden offensive outbursts have in common? Connor McDavid.
You’re forgiven if you haven’t heard of either of these men. Labardo is out of hockey while Fox is in the ECHL. But they both demonstrate what could be called “The McDavid Effect.”
When McDavid turned pro, struggling former first-overall pick Nail Yakupov had 10 points in 13 games playing with McDavid, but posted just 13 points in his next 47 games without McDavid. Now, Patrick Maroon is six goals above his career-high in just 50 games, mostly on McDavid’s wing.
National Post scribe Michael Traikos mentions those four men as shining examples of beneficiaries to playing with McDavid. Oilers coach Todd McLellan doesn’t want to take anything away from the effort Maroon has put in to improve, but adds that “playing with Connor helps. He has a tendency to make players around him better and that’s what superstars do.”
Maroon’s success is likely a result of being at the right-place at the right-time. He’s finally put in the off-season work: he lost 20 lbs over the summer and gained the step necessary to play with the speedy McDavid. Maroon told Traikos that he doesn’t “just skate around and expect [McDavid] to pass the puck to me… There’s a lot more to it.” McDavid praised Maroon as “one of the best forecheckers in the league.”
Regardless of who is on his wing, one of McDavid’s best attributes is his unselfish ability to improve those around him, and that should lead to more players being interested in the surging Oilers.
- The Columbus Blue Jackets will be without their head coach tonight. The team’s website announced that John Tortorella has returned to Columbus “due to a family emergency.” He will also miss the upcoming NHL All-Star game, where he was scheduled to coach the Metropolitan Division. Tortorella says he did not make the decision lightly and he hopes to back next week. Earlier today, it was announced that Blue Jackets forward Cam Atkinson would join Seth Jones and Sergei Bobrovsky in Los Angeles for the All-Star festivities.
- While some hockey insiders believe that the Maple Leafs should be buyers at the trade deadline in order to make a big playoff push, there’s disagreement on who should be traded. TSN’s Dave Poulin believes the Maple Leafs should hold on to James Van Riemsdyk, despite the swirling trade rumors. While the big winger could get the team an upgrade on defense, Poulin argues that Van Riemsdyk is a veteran leader who is a perfect fit for the young Maple Leafs as they fight to make the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Van Riemsdyk has 39 points in 46 games and has been a great influence on rookie Mitch Marner.
Varlamov Out Through All-Star Break With Groin Issue
The Colorado Avalanche will be without starting net minder Semyon Varlamov at least through the All-Star break, the team announced this afternoon. Head coach Jared Bednar made the announcement, indicating the groin issue which has bothered the goalie on-and-off throughout the season “is no longer a day-to-day thing.” The All-Star break runs through January 30th, meaning the injury will effectively cause Varlamov to miss at least the team’s next four games.
The Avalanche later said they would recall goaltender Spencer Martin from their AHL affiliate, the San Antonio Rampage. Martin has previously been up with the club but has yet to appear in an NHL game. He was the team’s third-round selection, 63rd overall, in the 2013 entry draft out of Mississauga of the OHL.
With Varlamov out, expect Calvin Pickard to get the lion’s share of the playing time between the pipes. The 24-year-old has started 19 games on the year for the Avalanche, winning seven, and posting a GAA of 3.06 with a S% of 0.902. Pickard was the team’s second-round pick in 2010.
Varlamov has also struggled between the pipes for Colorado, winning just six of 23 starts and recording a GAA of 3.38 and a S% below 0.900. Among the 47 qualified NHL goaltenders, Varly is tied for 42nd in S% and dead last in GAA.
With the Avalanche at least expected to consider tearing down and rebuilding their roster, it’s possible they would have marketed Varlamov this coming summer to teams in search of goaltending help. But with two more years remaining on a deal which calls for an AAV of $5.9MM, it’s doubtful they would have found a taker given his lackluster performance this season. His recurring groin problems serve to further diminish any possibility of a trade taking place.
CHL Trades Involving NHL Prospects
Today is the trade deadline for the Canadian Hockey League, which encompasses the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League (QMJHL), Ontario Hockey League (OHL), and Western Hockey League (WHL). Like the NHL, teams out of the playoff picture move top players for youth and prospects. The best players are expected to make the NHL and not return, so they are akin to NHL free agents in that their current team may lose them for nothing.
Below are all the NHL prospects moved (updated as trades come in):
F Jeremy Bracco (TOR): Kitchener Rangers -> Windsor Spitfires
F Mitchell Stephens (TB): Saginaw Spirit -> London Knights
F Anthony Cirelli (TB): Oshawa Generals -> Erie Otters
D Mitchell Vande Sompel (NYI): Oshawa Generals -> London Knights
D Chris Martenet (DAL): London Knights -> Ottawa 67’s
LW/D Carsen Twarynski (PHI): Calgary Hitmen -> Kelowna Rockets
Junior Notes: Stephens, Salituro, Bracco, Patrick
With the Ontario Hockey League trade deadline fast approaching, several big deals have gone down today. The first, and arguably the most impactful, is the highly-speculated trade of Saginaw Spirit forward Mitchell Stephens. The 2015 second-round selection of the Tampa Bay Lightning is fresh off of a point-per-game performance for Canada at the World Juniors and has 28 points in 22 games thus far in the 2016-17 OHL season. He now heads to the storied London Knights franchise, the defending Memorial Cup champions and winners of three of the last five OHL titles. The former Spirit captain waived his no-trade clause to go to the Knights, where he’ll join a multitude of fellow elite prospects including Olli Juolevi, Cliff Pu, and Max Jones. The return for Saginaw is four second-round picks and two-third round picks over the next seven years.
After acquiring New York Islanders defenseman prospect Mitch Vande Sompel yesterday and Stephens this morning, the Knights still weren’t done. They’ve also added Columbus Blue Jackets forward prospect Dante Salituro. Salituro has yet to play a junior game this season, signing an entry-level deal with Columbus this summer and bouncing around through the AHL and ECHL so far this year, but the 20-year-old still has his junior eligibility and is expected to join the Knights for the remainder of the season. It was a risk-free trade for his former team, the Ottawa ’67s, who obtained Chris Martenet and a trio of future draft picks (2nd, 3rd, and 5th) for a player who was not even on the roster.
Armed with their three new additions to an already talented lineup, the London Knights should again make a deep run in the OHL playoffs. They currently hold a slim lead on the Erie Otters and Owen Sound Attack in the OHL’s Midwest Division, and trail the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds by just three points for the best record in the league.
In other juniors news:
- Another big trade today was that of Toronto Maple Leafs prospect and World Juniors standout Jeremy Bracco. After returning to the Kitchener Rangers with a gold medal in hand, the 2015 second-rounder is on the move again, this time to the Windsor Spitfires. Bracco has 51 points in only 27 OHL games this season, and chipped in three goals and two assists for Team USA as well. Bracco is now guaranteed to see some Memorial Cup action this year, as Windsor is set to host the event. They would be a contender to compete regardless, as they boast two 2016 first-round picks on defense in Montreal’s Mikhail Sergachev and Winnipeg’s Logan Stanley, as well as 2017 top prospect Gabriel Vilardi up front. Adding Bracco to Vilardi should boost the offense in Windsor and make them a real threat to unseat the Soo Greyhounds in the West Division.
- Over in the WHL, the Brandon Wheat Kings probably feel as if they have made a huge trade themselves, as they announced that presumptive #1 overall pick in 2017, Nolan Patrick, is ready to return this week. The big center has missed all but six games this season – though still has nine points – but has finally recovered from his upper body injury. Expect the top prospect to put up big-time points down the stretch for the Kings, as he looks to shake off any skepticism stemming from his absence and re-assert himself as the definitive top pick this June.