Morning Notes: Boughner, Fowler, Colorado
The Florida Panthers will interview Bob Boughner for their vacant head coaching position according to Pierre LeBrun of TSN. The team was given permission to talk to Boughner weeks ago, but will hold the interview at some point this week. The Panthers have been linked to Michel Therrien and Jim Montgomery in the past as well as assistants who may be still working in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
One of those would likely be Nashville Predators assistant Phil Housley, who is off to the finals to face the winner of the Pittsburgh-Ottawa series. It will be interesting to see if Florida will wait for the end of the playoffs to make a decision, as that would come just a few days before expansion and entry draft decisions would have to be made. While the head coach doesn’t make any of these decisions by himself, he’s often consulted and sometimes attends the scouting combine with the front office staff.
- In a Tuesday hit with the NHL Network, Elliotte Friedman reported that GMs around the league have told him they think Cam Fowler would command a $56MM price tag should he get to free agency in 2018. That would pay him $8MM per season over seven years, a number which only two defensemen—P.K. Subban and the newly extended Brent Burns—currently hit. Perhaps Friedman meant that he would earn $7MM over eight years, but the only team who can sign him that long is currently the Ducks (though his rights could be traded like Keith Yandle last summer). Still, it is a huge number that would put him in the top-10 in salaries among defensemen. He’s eligible for extension on July 1st as he heads into the final year of his current contract.
- The Colorado Avalanche made changes to their coaching staff yesterday when they announced that Francois Allaire, Dave Farrish and Tim Army would not return for 2017-18. Friedman is hearing that Finnish goalie coach Jussi Parkilla is in the mix to replace him, while Michael Russo of the Star Tribune heard yesterday that former NHL goaltender Dwayne Roloson has already interviewed for the position. Should the team bring in Parkilla, it would be a clear sign that Semyon Varlamov is the choice in net going forward for the Avs, as Friedman reports the two are close. As we discussed on Monday, exposing Calvin Pickard is one of the decisions the team has to face going into the expansion draft.
Ilya Sorokin Not Thinking About NHL Future
When the New York Islanders signed Linus Soderstrom earlier this month to his entry-level contract, they were avoiding the months of uncertainty they will now face with fellow goaltending prospect Ilya Sorokin. Both selected in the 2014 draft, Soderstrom and Sorokin have found incredible success in the SHL and KHL respectively, putting up ridiculous save percentages at extremely young ages.
Sorokin just finished his second World Championships with Team Russia, taking home another bronze medal while remaining perfect during his short stints in the tournament. Just 21, he has yet to take the mantle of starter though it looks like that may lie in his future. In the KHL this year he followed up a Goaltender of the Year award in 2015-16 with another All-Star appearance, and another solid .929 save percentage. He’s clearly one of the best young Russian goaltenders in a long time, and has an NHL future waiting for him if he wants it.
That’s where it gets tricky for the Islanders though, as Sorokin again told reporters at the end of the tournament that he was focused on his final contract year in the KHL, and hasn’t even considered a move to North America yet. On May 5th, it was announced that he had re-negotiated his deal to pay him more for this season after putting up such incredible numbers. His current deal will expire at the end of April 2018, giving the Islanders just a few weeks to get him under contract.
Since Sorokin was drafted in 2014, New York would lose his exclusive negotiating rights after June 1st of 2018, four years from when he was selected. While his intent isn’t clear, things can often change for prospects as they get closer and closer to the prospect of free agency. Should he ever make it to the open market every team in the league would be knocking on his door, a likely incentive to just wait a few more weeks. There is also the idea that the KHL would likely make him one of the highest-paid goaltenders in the league, trying to keep their talent at home for as long as possible. Though the Islanders sacrificed just a third-round pick on him in 2014, seeing his progression would make it extremely painful to lose him to free agency.
So now, though they don’t have to worry about Soderstrom the Islanders will have to keep an eye on Sorokin and try to persuade him to sign a deal next season. With uncertainty in the crease beyond 2020—if you can call an aging Thomas Greiss certain in the first place—the team would love to be able to pencil Sorokin in as a long-term option. If he’s serious about waiting until after his contract expires to even consider a move, they’ll have to work quickly to convince him.
Metro Division Snapshots: Capitals, Darling, McLeod
Big changes are expected this summer in D.C. after the Washington Capitals once again failed to advance beyond the second round of the postseason, despite boasting perhaps the most talented roster ever assembled in the organization’s 42-year history. Even if GM Brian MacLellan wanted to return the roster mostly intact, he would have a difficult time doing so given the team’s salary cap situation. It’s along this vein that Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post examines potential free agent and trade fits to replace the players the Capitals may lose off their President’s Trophy winning roster.
T.J. Oshie, coming off a career high 33-goal season, will be a UFA this summer and while the Capitals would like to re-sign the winger, doing so may prove hard to do, according to Khurshudyan. The scribe writes that Oshie is due for a significant raise on his $4.5MM 2016-17 cap charge, and suggests a long-term deal in the $6MM annual range is reasonable. Khurshudyan notes that both Kyle Okposo and David Backes, two players with similar profiles and historical production to Oshie, inked free agent deals with cap hits of $6MM last summer. If that should prove to be too rich for MacLellan’s blood, the team could pivot back to Justin Williams, who is coming off a two-year deal with the Capitals worth $3.25MM per year. Andre Burakovsky, a RFA, is expected to graduate to a full-time top-six role and the duo of Williams and Burakovsky could be good enough for Washington to get by. In terms of outside free agents Khurshudyan lists Drew Stafford and Patrick Eaves as potentially inexpensive fits, though at 31 and 33 respectively, each is on the back-half of their careers and would represent a risky proposition. As it is, Stafford netted just eight goals in 58 games in 2016-17. Eaves notched a career high 32 goals, besting his previous best by 12 and suggesting heavy regression is likely.
On the blue line, both Karl Alzner and trade deadline pickup Kevin Shattenkirk will head to free agency. Khurshudyan expects both to depart for greener pastures and speculates that Nate Schmidt will likely assume a role next to John Carlson on the team’s top pair next season. That leaves a hole on the third pairing with Brooks Orpik. Internal candidates, according to the scribe, include Taylor Chorney along with prospects Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos. The free agent market is thin at the position, though veteran defender Johnny Oduya could represent one option, according to the author.
On the trade front, Khurshudyan mentions recent reports that Minnesota would be willing to listen to offers for RW Nino Niederreiter, a pending RFA. Coming off a 25-goal season with the Wild, Niederreiter would certainly command a sizable return in any trade, but he would satisfy Washington’s need for a top-six forward and is young enough to fill that role for years to come. Additionally, given the restrictive nature of the expansion draft rules, both the Wild and Anaheim may have to leave a talented young blue liner exposed and could elect to make a trade to secure some value in return. While that may provide Washington with another means with which to add a needed defenseman, many teams in the league will be shopping in the same market and likely have more to offer in return than the Capitals.
Elsewhere in the Metro Division:
- Scott Darling‘s move to Carolina, where it is expected he will be given every chance to be the team’s #1 goalie, is viewed as the 28-year-old netminder’s biggest opportunity at the professional level. For his part, however, Darling sees it as just the next step in a pro career chock full of opportunities, writes Luke DeCock of The News & Observer. As DeCock notes, Darling has already overcome a drinking problem which nearly sunk his career before it ever even got started, and has worked his way up the pro ranks all the way from the SPHL up to where he is today; the presumptive starter for a young Carolina team hoping to contend for a playoff spot next season. It’s been a lengthy process for Darling but his approach finally appears to be paying off. “It’s kind of been my thing to just saw the wood in front of you, and just keep working toward the next step.” The “wood” in front of him is the high expectations that he will have to shoulder as the new #1 goalie for a team whose recent chances to compete in the postseason have been derailed by poor to mediocre play between the pipes. But given his history, Darling appears well-suited for the challenges that await in Carolina.
- The New Jersey Devils have high expectations for their 2016 first round draft selection, center Michael McLeod, a skilled offensive talent who starred for Mississauga of the OHL. Chris Ryan of NJ Advance Media spoke with Paul Castron, the team’s Director of Amateur Scouting, about McLeod’s progress one year after the team made the 6-foot-2, 194-pound pivot the 12th overall pick in the draft. After impressing team brass at the Devils developmental and training camps last summer, McLeod struggled during the first couple of months of the OHL season, writes Ryan, though Castron is still high on the prospect: “He’s one of those players where he never lets you down with his work ethic and his speed game is always there, he’s always a factor. I think he was just frustrated early in the season for not producing at a higher rate. The team as a whole really struggled, and I think he felt a lot of pressure because he was captain, too, and he was their leader.” McLeod would get his game going in the second half of the season, notes Ryan, amassing 46 points over his final 31 contests and leading his team to the OHL Final, recording an impressive 27 points in 20 postseason games along the way. With New Jersey in the midst of an all out rebuild, one buoyed by winning the rights to the first overall choice in the 2017 draft in the NHL’s recent lottery, McLeod’s development will be important to the future success of the organization. It’s possible given the team’s dearth of offensive talent that McLeod could open the year in New Jersey with a strong training camp performance.
Morning Notes: Babcock, Maple Leafs, Borowiecki
The Toronto Maple Leafs fan base has been abuzz over the last few days after seeing pictures of Mike Babcock at games 3 and 4 between Nashville and Anaheim, even being joined by GM Lou Lamoriello for the latter. His appearance immediately made many think that he was scouting Ducks defensemen eligible for the expansion draft, though Sportsnet’s Luke Fox has an additional theory.
Predators captain Mike Fisher will be a free agent this summer, and though he’s obviously tied strongly to the Nashville community—he’s married to country music star Carrie Underwood after all—the numbers might just not leave enough room for him. Nashville has a busy offseason ahead of them, with both Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson hitting restricted free agency. If Fisher were to hit the open market, Toronto would likely be interested after the comments Babcock made earlier this year about him.
- Maple Leafs fans will also be happy to see the success of their two young stars at the World Championships. Mitch Marner and William Nylander have been some of the best forwards in the tournament thus far, with Nylander especially finding incredible chemistry with playoff-foe Nicklas Backstrom. Nylander and Backstrom have a long history, going back to the latter’s rookie season in Washington when he was welcomed into the home of then-teammate Michael Nylander, William’s father. The two, almost 10 years apart, spent a lot of time together during those first two seasons playing ping-pong in the basement or mini-sticks in the hallway. It seems all that time spent so many years ago has created a sort of familiarity on the ice, that has blossomed into some incredible goals since Backstrom joined the tournament.
- The Ottawa Senators won’t get Mark Borowiecki back tonight, though he took the morning skate with the team. According to Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia, the bruising defenseman suffered a setback pushing too hard to try and get back on the ice. He still hopes to return in this series, which would stretch to next Thursday should it go all seven games. The Senators will try to take a commanding 3-1 series lead tonight as they take on the Penguins at home.
Decision On NHL Future Coming Soon From Jan Rutta
Now that the Czech Republic has been eliminated from the World Championships, Jan Rutta is expected to make his decision soon on which NHL team to sign with. This coming from Rutta’s agent Allen Walsh, who previously called Rutta “one of the top Czech offensive defensemen”.
Rutta was named the Czech’s player of the game in their final loss today at the hands of Russia, skating almost 19 minutes and recording six shots to lead his team. Indeed, Rutta is an excellent offensive player; he recorded 32 points in 46 games in the Czech league this year, and has always been a contributor on the powerplay.
The 26-year old defenseman shoots right, something that is hard to find around the league. His teammate David Kampf signed with the Chicago Blackhawks, but representatives from every team would have seen him at the World Championships this year. Should he find an agreement with an NHL team, he will be expected to step right into the league at least in a sheltered offensive role.
Darren Dreger of TSN has heard that both the Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames have interest in Rutta, though can’t confirm if either has made an offer at this point. He adds that Vancouver, Winnipeg, Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal are all not in on the Czech defender, though hasn’t updated on any US-based teams yet.
Dallas Stars Upcoming Defensive Decisions
When the Dallas Stars fell apart this season, ending with thirty fewer regular season points than the year prior and missing the playoffs by a wide margin, many pointed to their goaltending and to a lesser extent their defense. Why shouldn’t they, after the Stars watched Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski and Kris Russell all leave in one summer only to see the team bring in a 33-year old Dan Hamhuis as a replacement. The team had posted a league-worst .893 save percentage, and just 133 points from their defense in comparison to 174 the year before.
Many fans went into this offseason pleading with management to acquire some better defenders, even pondering a Kevin Shattenkirk or Karl Alzner—likely the two most sought-after defensemen in free agency—appearance in Texas. But, when looking at their roster for next season is there really room for an addition outside of a big-name? 
Going into next season, the Stars have three defensemen who are absolute locks to make the club. Hamhuis, John Klingberg and Esa Lindell will all surely figure into the group in some fashion, even if the former is on the last legs of his career. After those three, the Stars actually have several internal options that may not be any worse than what they could find in free agency. Jamie Oleksiak hasn’t lived up to his high draft position, but still should be considered to have potential given his size and flashes of successful play. Patrik Nemeth and Stephen Johns both have shown the ability to contribute at the NHL level, though in what role they are best suited in is still undecided. Greg Pateryn, part of the return for Jordie Benn at the trade deadline has shown his ability as a shot-suppressor and is easily an NHL-caliber defender.
Then there is Julius Honka, who today was written about by Aaron Vickers of NHL.com while he skates in the World Championships. Honka is certainly deserved of a look at the NHL level next season after his outstanding AHL performance and promising 16-game tryout with Dallas. The 21-year old is playing for Finland, and as Vickers writes has been compared favorably to Klingberg by multiple Dallas players, including Klingberg himself. For three straight years he’s shown he can dominate the AHL, so why not give him a chance to adapt to the higher league.
That also doesn’t even consider the fact that the team may go with Miro Heiskanen at #3 in next month’s draft. While Heiskanen is expected to need some seasoning, perhaps the team feels as though he’s ready for the NHL right away and brings him in to compete with the rest of their young group. It wouldn’t be the first time a high draft pick exceeded expectations in his first training camp.
The Stars have more than enough bodies on the back end to make up a defense corps, meaning that if they really want to improve it would likely come through trade instead of free agency. Bringing in more mid-pairing types to compete just doesn’t make sense without moving some of the names listed above out. More likely, with the addition of Ben Bishop in net the team will try to build a group out of what it has and perhaps swing a trade for a single name. As even this group may be good enough to get them back to the playoffs with a shift in goaltending.
Minnesota Wild “Willing To Listen” On Potential Trades
After Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman wrote in yesterday’s “30 Thoughts” column that he’d heard Nino Niederreiter‘s name come up in trade talks, Michael Russo of the Star Tribune did a little more digging. He spoke directly with Minnesota Wild GM Chuck Fletcher and got him on the record about his outlook for this summer.
I’ve spoken to a lot of teams in the league. People are inquiring about a lot of our players, not just necessarily [Niederreiter and Mathew Dumba]. If teams call and ask about a player, I’m listening, but there’s a big difference between listening and shopping. We’re going to have to make a change or two here, so if somebody has an idea, I’m willing to listen and I’m willing to work with people if something makes sense.
That “change or two” is likely because of the cap situation the Minnesota Wild find themselves in. With Niederreiter and Mikael Granlund due for substantial raises and the Wild already committed to over $61MM in salary next season (via CapFriendly), there just may not be enough room to keep everyone. Fletcher mentioned more than once about waiting to see where exactly the cap would land—it’s expected to increase a few million to somewhere around $76MM for next season—indicating that it may be possible to extend everyone and still make the team better.
The Wild would obviously put a huge price tag on Niederreiter, especially after a career season for the former fifth-overall pick. With two years left before free agency, the 24-year old scored 57 points and looked like the possession-driving force the New York Islanders had hoped for when they drafted him. The same would go for Dumba, though it would likely take a different sort of package for the 22-year old. He’s entering the final year of his current contract, and will be a restricted free agent next summer with several years still to go before he hits the open market.
Dumba though may be at risk of being selected by the Vegas Golden Knights, with Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon and Jonas Brodin expected to earn the protection slots should the team use the 7-3-1 method. Moving his $2.55MM cap hit might not take the Wild completely out of the woods though.
While Fletcher is clear that he’s not shopping Nieddereiter, Dumba or anyone else at the moment, he’ll be open to whatever idea someone has to try to improve his club. With no first or second round picks this season, and no second rounder next year either, they may need to move on from someone to replenish the future.
Morning Notes: Maple Leafs, Eberle, Bishop
The Maple Leafs took an impressive step forward in 2016-17, riding the backs of several rookies to their first playoff appearance in a full season since 2004. While they were ultimately defeated by the Washington Capitals, their fan base was enthused by the performance and expects big things from them over the next several years. James Mirtle of The Athletic (subscription needed) took a look at their salary cap situation, and proposes that the Maple Leafs should make a big splash this summer before they have to pay the likes of Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner more than their current entry-level deals.
Mirtle shows that the Leafs may have as much as $15MM to spend this summer and would be wise to invest it in short-term veteran help for the team to push them into contention immediately. Joe Thornton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Alexander Radulov all make hypothetical appearances among the Maple Leafs forwards, while the contention that a right-handed defenseman is still of the highest importance remains. Toronto, who holds the 17th-overall pick in the upcoming entry draft could theoretically use some of their prospect capital and cap room to be one of the biggest players in both free agency and the trade market this summer.
- Jordan Eberle has become a sort of whipping-boy in Edmonton of late, after his play in the postseason took a sharp downward turn. Many fans have been clamoring for his head, wanting to ship him out for the next Adam Larsson. While obviously he still holds value following his 51 point season that included a fourth-straight 20+ goal effort, Eberle will be very difficult to move contends David Staples of the Edmonton Journal. Staples quotes TSN Head Scout Craig Button in the piece, agreeing that a $6MM cap-hit is no easy transaction. Staples writes that Buffalo, Vancouver and New Jersey—the same team that accepted a Taylor Hall deal last summer—would be interested in Eberle and hold the needed cap room for the next few seasons.
- According to the venerable Renaud Lavoie for Le Journal de Montreal, the Stars actually pursued Scott Darling before acquiring Ben Bishop last week. Darling was the team’s first choice, but they wouldn’t part with the third-round pick it took for Carolina to finally lock down his negotiating rights. Darling signed a $16.6MM deal with the Hurricanes, while Bishop inked a six-year, $29.5MM contract with Dallas. It’s interesting to note that Darling is two years younger than Bishop, but received two fewer years on his contract. With an even lower cap-hit, Darling’s seems to be the much more attractive of the two deals, making the difference between a fourth—what the Stars eventually gave up for Bishop—and a third round pick seem more than acceptable.
Nashville And The Win-Win Trade
In these playoffs, there are quite a few players who are making their former teams look silly for ever moving on from them. Phil Kessel is one such example, Kyle Turris is another. There are also skaters who have been fantastic for their teams but the sight of whom doesn’t instill hatred in former team’s fans. Arizona faithful surely grimace every time Turris touches the pucks and drives up ice, but James Neal is still loved and adored by Pittsburgh fans. The primary reason being that the Penguins aren’t regretful. Neal was involved in a very important and team-altering trade that ended up benefited the Predators as much as it did the Penguins.
Rewind the clock to the 2014 Draft. The Penguins have just been eliminated for the 5th straight postseason in disappointing fashion. The aging Jim Rutherford is brought in to right a ship that looks destined to take on more water. The Predators had completely missed the playoffs, tallying only 38 wins and relying upon a totally inept and anemic offense. Shea Weber had led the team in points on D and they had recently lost Ryan Suter to free agency, and after Hornqvist, Craig Smith, and Mike Fisher, there was practically nothing to push the pace offensively. Carter Hutton had to take the crease in the wake of Pekka Rinne having injury trouble and poor performance. Both teams needed a desperate shake up, and it wouldn’t come painlessly for either. GM David Poile spent the time with Rutherford to hammer out a deal that contained a fair bit of risk on both sides.
The ultimate deal resulted in the 61-point getting, former 40-goal scoring James Neal traded to Nashville for their leading scorer in Patrick Hornqvist, Nick Spaling, and a 2nd-round pick. Nashville lost two solid players on a defensive oriented team in hopes of shifting focus to a more offensive game. Pittsburgh isolated net-front presence and physicality as pieces they were lacking come playoff time. Both teams ended up reveling in the results of this gambit, but it is the sort of deal we see little of in today’s NHL – a win-win trade.
A recent example of an attempted high-risk win-win trade would be Shea Weber for P.K. Subban. One could make the case that GM Marc Bergevin was following a valid needs-based brand of logic, but for many reasons the move was short-sighted for the Canadiens. Montreal fans can claim hindsight, but Weber was always going to be due for decline and was arguably already lesser in value. Without delving further into that particular transaction, Nashville again made a prudent (but difficult) decision to move their captain, which paid dividends. Subban will be an integral part of their franchise for years.
Many teams are overly rigid in sticking to their core when it is obviously in need of change. Nashville not only shifted their core in a few short years, but adapted on the fly to a changing game. Poile acquired the necessary personnel to go deeper into the playoffs in an exceptionally talented Central division, and all GMs would be wise to look to his example. The blueprint for a win-win trade is to isolate what your team desperately needs, who can fill that need, and being willing to part with important players to acquire your man. Winning the value comparison on paper isn’t what should truly matter to GMs, Taking risks to make weaknesses strengths will never be a safe or easy move, but it is the sort of mentality that can win a franchise a Stanley Cup. This offseason, perhaps there will be more moves of this ilk.
High Likelihood Of Free Agent Class Shrinking Further
Let’s state the facts: the 2017 unrestricted free agent class is really weak. Even before the season started it wasn’t full of household names, but with Brent Burns, Patrik Berglund, and, most recently, Ben Bishop agreeing to extensions already, the list has shrunk even further. The 2017 class has few impact players available, so much so that the New York Islanders easily have single-handedly deprived the rest of the league of three of the top fifty free agents simply by re-signing the likes of Thomas Greiss, Dennis Seidenberg, and Cal Clutterbuck.
Unfortunately, the trend of teams retaining their own talent and further forecasting a dull summer may not be done. The Washington Capitals have four of the best free agent names out there in T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk, Karl Alzner, and Justin Williams and even given their tight cap space, it is reasonable to assume that at least one or two of that group will re-up with the President’s Trophy winners. Initially, many felt that the San Jose Sharks would not bring back both of their aging stars, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, and possibly even neither. However, after a strong season from career-Shark Marleau, the team will likely look to retain him, and with Thornton turning 38 soon and facing significant injury questions, he simply might take a hometown discount to stay in San Jose as well. In Montreal, revelation Alexander Radulov and key veteran Andrei Markov are impending free agents, but many assume in name only as handshake agreements seem to have been made on new deals following the Expansion Draft. Anaheim Ducks trade deadline acquisition Patrick Eaves has been a great fit and has expressed an interest in extending his stay. Same goes for Drew Stafford and the Boston Bruins. Even veterans like Radim Vrbata, Mike Fisher, and Jaromir Jagr seem likely to stay put in their current homes.
This does seem to be an awful lot of deals to be made in less than two months before free agency opens on July 1st, but don’t rule it out. Many teams are wary of the Expansion Draft ramifications of re-signing their impending free agents too early and may instead act swiftly in the waning days of June. Most, if not all, of these names could be off the table by the time free agency opens. Could we be looking at a free agent class highlighted by the likes of Sam Gagner, Martin Hanzal, and Michael Del Zotto? Let’s hope not.