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NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Scott Darling Trade Reactions

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The Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes hooked up yesterday for a rare April trade, with pending UFA goaltender Scott Darling departing the Windy City in return for a third-round draft pick in the 2017 entry draft. The Hawks get the third-rounder originally acquired by Carolina at the trade deadline from Ottawa in exchange for veteran winger Viktor Stalberg. The Canes, meanwhile, bring in Darling, who played well as Corey Crawford’s understudy and was likely going to depart Chicago as a free agent to pursue a starting job elsewhere. Now it appears he’ll have that opportunity in Carolina, presuming he agrees to sign with the team rather than test the open market, of course.

On the surface this deal certainly wouldn’t qualify as a blockbuster, but all one has to do is look north to Edmonton to see what can happen when a quality backup goalie is given a chance to be a #1. Cam Talbot, previously Henrik Lundqvist’s #2 in New York, has developed into a quality starter for the Oilers and has so far guided his team to a surprising 2 – 0 lead over Anaheim in their Western Conference semifinal match. Talbot also led NHL netminders this season in several categories, including games played, wins and shots against. While there is no guarantee Darling will follow Talbot’s career trajectory, the latter’s success is evidence that deals like this can sometimes pay off.

Here’s a rundown of reactions from around the league:

  • Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times likes the deal from both perspectives, arguing that the Hawks got solid value for a player they had no room to re-sign while the Hurricanes add a potential long term starter between the pipes. Lazerus does, however, opine that the move, albeit inevitable, leaves the club perilously thin in goal. Beyond Crawford, Chicago has no goaltender in the organization with NHL experience, though Jeff Glass is around to meet the team’s expansion draft requirement of exposing one goalie under contract for 2017-18. The scribe also adds that Chicago gave no thought to extending Darling while attempting to move Crawford. Lazerus suspects Darling could get close to $4MM on the open market but the potential cap savings evidently wasn’t compelling enough to cause Chicago to reconsider their goaltending situation.
  • Adam Gretz of NBC Sports Pro Hockey Talk writes that Carolina’s acquisition of Darling is “worth the risk,” borrowing a quote from Hurricanes GM Ron Francis. As Gretz notes, Carolina has long received substandard play between the pipes and it was more of the same in 2016-17. Cam Ward and Eddie Lack combined for a S% of just 0.901, good for just 26th in the league. In fact, Carolina has fared no better than 25th in that category in any of the previous five seasons. For a team looking to break an eight year playoff drought, improved play in net would go a long way to improve their postseason chances in 2017-18. Gretz also points out that the Hurricanes boast an impressive amount of 2017 draft capital, with their own first-rounder, three seconds and two thirds even after acquiring Darling’s rights. As a result, the team can afford to take this gamble given their enviable entry draft wealth.
  • Luke DeCock of The News & Observer is satisfied to at least see Carolina attempt to make changes in goal, even if the team fails to extend Darling, after what he describes as “two unsatisfying years of the Cam Ward/Eddie Lack tandem.” According to DeCock, a third-round pick may be a substantial price to pay for just two months of exclusive negotiating rights but considering Carolina still has six choices in the first three rounds and 10 overall in 2017, it’s a reasonable cost assuming the Hurricanes can lock the 28-year-old goalie to a long term deal. The scribe feels Darling is just entering his prime and has the potential to solve the team’s longstanding issues between the pipes. DeCock believes the deal also means Carolina already has an agreement in place or feels confident in their ability to consummate one with the Vegas Golden Knights that would result in one of Ward or Lack being selected in the expansion draft. The duo accounts for a combined $6MM cap charge and with Darling expected to command around $4MM annually, a budget team like Carolina simply cannot afford to keep all three in the organization. Ultimately, DeCock feels entering the 2017-18 campaign with the Ward/Lack duo would have been “utter folly,” and considers any change “an improvement.”

Hurricanes Acquire Scott Darling From Blackhawks

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Scott Darling was expected to hit unrestricted free agency for the first time in his career this summer, but that may not be happening after all. The Carolina Hurricanes announced this evening that they have acquired the goalie from the Chicago Blackhawks. In exchange, the Blackhawks will receive the Ottawa Senator’s 2017 third-round pick, originally acquired by the ’Canes at the Trade Deadline for forward Viktor Stalberg. 

Following this trade, Carolina now holds the exclusive right to sign Darling prior to the beginning of free agency on July 1st. The Vegas Golden Knights will have a 48-hour window to speak with Darling prior to the Expansion Draft on June 21st, but may only sign Darling if they then select him in the Expansion Draft. However, giving up a third-round pick for two months of exclusive talks with Darling seems to indicate that the Hurricanes are intent on signing the 28-year-old. That could mean that they sign Darling prior to June 21st and protect him in the draft or they could instead agree orally on a deal and use their one slot to protect another goalie, either longtime starter Cam Ward or 2015 off-season trade addition Eddie Lack. Darling greatly outperformed both as the backup in Chicago this season and the Hurricanes may not care if either is selected; they could simply protect Darling regardless of having a deal in place.

In a career-high 32 appearances in 2016-17, Darling was 18-5-5 with a .924 save percentage and a 2.38 goals against average. That performance was good enough for the sixth-best save percentage and the eleventh-best goals against average in the entire NHL. Although he is 28 years old, Darling has little wear on the tires and, if he continues to play this well with a greater workload, could be the Hurricanes starting goalie for quite a few years.

Babcock, Tortorella, McLellan Finalists For Jack Adams Award

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The Score’s Josh Gold-Smith is one of many to report that the finalists for the Jack Adams Trophy are Mike Babcock, Todd McLellan, and John Tortorella. The award is given to the league’s best coach. All three choices are hardly a surprise.

After a vicious performance in the World Cup of Hockey, Tortorella was expected to be one of the first

Jan 8, 2016; Raleigh, NC, USA; Columbus Blue Jackets head coach John Tortorella looks on against the Carolina Hurricanes from behind the bench during the first period at PNC Arena. The Carolina Hurricanes defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets 4-1. Mandatory Credit: James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports

coaches on the hot seat, especially with a Columbus club few expected to be anywhere out of last place. Instead, Torts and the Jackets responded with a 50-24-8 record, good for third in the Metropolitan Division and 108 points. The Jackets also went on a tear in December, stringing together sixteen consecutive victories and putting the NHL on notice that they were for real. Though they ended up losing to Pittsburgh in five games during the first round of the playoffs, the Blue Jackets certainly made a case for being a threat in the Met and the Eastern Conference.

Babcock left the Detroit Red Wings after the 2014-15 season and joined the Toronto Maple Leafs, an original six team searching for its first Stanley Cup since 1967 and trying to make its way out of the hockey wilderness. Though he said the rebuild would be “painful,” it was a lot shorter than anyone expected. Paced by Calder Award candidate Auston Matthews, Babcock showed why so many teams sought his services, guiding the Leafs to their first playoff appearance since 2012-13, and taking an enormous step in the rebirth of a once dominant franchise. The Leafs were recently knocked out by Washington, but they proved to be a “tough out” and will certainly be a force to reckon with in the coming seasons.

McLellan has been a consistently good coach since taking the reins in San Jose,

Oct 14, 2016; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers head coach Todd McLellan on his bench against Calgary Flames during the third period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Edmonton Oilers won 5-3. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

and after moving to Edmonton, it was expected that he would turn around a franchise seeking a playoff run after being absent for nearly a decade. After missing last season, McLellan steered the Oil into the playoffs, posting a 47-26-9 record, 103 points, and a second place finish in the Pacific Division.

It was the Oilers highest point total since 1986-87, when they had 106 points and won the Stanley Cup. He turned around a franchise annually criticized for not capitalizing on its success despite netting numerous number one draft picks. Though it won’t factor into voting, McLellan has the Oilers in the second round of the playoffs as well.

Photos Courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Carolina Hurricanes Sign Klas Dahlbeck To One-Year Deal

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The Carolina Hurricanes work quickly. The team has announced a one-year extension for Klas Dahlbeck, which will pay him $850K for next season. Dahlbeck was set to become a restricted free agent this summer, and would have been eligible for arbitration.

Dahlbeck’s new deal comes as just a slight raise from this season when he earned $750K, and extends his partnership with the Hurricanes after they claimed him off waivers just before the beginning of the season. Dahlbeck ended up playing in 43 games for Carolina, though he averaged just under 14 minutes a game.

With Carolina’s glut of young defenders, Dahlbeck provides a nice depth option and fulfills the expansion requirement we recently discussed. To this point, Carolina would have had to expose Justin Faulk as he was the only defender who met the required amount of games played and had a contract through next season. Dahlbeck will now be that expansion fodder, though he’s unlikely to be claimed.

Instead, he’ll likely come back as an option for a team that is looking to move out a defender to upgrade their forward position. Rumored to be involved in the Matt Duchene sweepstakes at the deadline, their interest in several high-priced forwards will return this summer. Dahlbeck at least provides a fall back option for the bottom pairing if they move on from one of their younger players and don’t think Haydn Fleury is ready for the NHL.

Morning Notes: Lorentz, Penguins, Datsyuk, Setoguchi

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The Carolina Hurricanes have added a talented young forward to their prospect ranks, inking Steven Lorentz to a three-year entry-level deal. The contract will pay him $650K in the first two years, and $700K the third season—contingent on him staying in the NHL. At the AHL level he’ll earn just $60K, but does receive a healthy $185K signing bonus. Not bad for a seventh-round pick in 2015 who despite being looked over in the draft has exploded onto the scene in the OHL playoffs, recording 15 points in 9 games and leading the Peterborough Petes to the third round.

Lorentz has the size and scoring ability to make an impact at the professional level, and will try to continue his playoff dominance against the Mississauga Steelheads. He’s got a long way to go to see the NHL, but he’s already outgrown his draft status.

  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have returned Josh Archibald, Tom Sestito and Cameron Gaunce to the AHL to help the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins in their first round series with the Providence Bruins. Pittsburgh is off for a few days following their elimination of the Columbus Blue Jackets last night, and will nurse any wounds while waiting for the victor of the Capitals-Maple Leafs series.
  • Despite Pavel Datsyuk not being healthy enough to play in the clinching game in the Gagarin Cup, he intends to play in 2017-18 for SKA St. Petersburg. Dan Milstein, Datsyuk’s agent, tweeted that the 38-year old will also be looking forward to the 2018 Olympics, where he will presumably be selected to participate for Russia. Datsyuk found great success with SKA this season, scoring 34 points in 44 games while being much closer to his family in Russia.
  • Devin Setoguchi has signed with Adler-Mannheim of the German Hockey League, inking a two-year deal to continue his hockey career overseas. Setoguchi made an impressive comeback this year, making the Los Angeles Kings out of camp and recording 12 points in 45 games. The former 30-goal man has a long troubled history in the league but continues to work his way back to health and happiness. He’ll join several former NHL players including Carlo Colaiacovo, Marcel Goc and Drew MacIntyre with the Eagles next season.

Minor Moves: Labanc, Mete, Kuokkanen, Oilers

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The San Jose Sharks have sent Kevin Labanc back to the AHL prior to their AHL affiliate San Jose Barracuda’s first playoff game. Labanc wasn’t going to get into the Sharks lineup unless an injury struck, and he will be a huge help to the Barracuda’s chances. In 55 NHL games this season, Labanc registered 20 points and was a point-per-game player in the 19 matches in the AHL.

A former OHL superstar, Labanc scored 127 points in his final year of junior with the Barrie Colts, and has turned from sixth-round afterthought to legitimate prospect in the San Jose system. Here are some more moves from around the league…

  • The St. John’s IceCaps have signed Montreal Canadiens’ prospect Victor Mete to an amateur tryout. Mete was a fourth-round pick last summer who has enjoyed an excellent season in London, out performing fifth-overall pick Olli Juolevi offensively. His 44 points in 50 games was best on the team from the blueline, and he’ll now get a chance to show off at the professional ranks. Only 18, Mete will head back to London next year for another chance at the Memorial Cup.
  • The Charlotte Checkers have added a London Knight of their own, as the Carolina Hurricanes re-assigned Janne Kuokkanen to their AHL affiliate. The 18-year old center was signed to a three-year entry-level deal just last month after his huge rookie season in the OHL. Scoring 62 points in 60 games, he proved why the Hurricanes made him a second-round pick (43rd overall) last summer.
  • After letting Jesse Puljujarvi head to Team Finland for the World Championships, the Edmonton Oilers have recalled a group of Black Aces for their playoff run. Jordan Oesterle, Mark Fayne, Joey LaLeggia and Anton Lander will all join the club now that the Bakersfield season is over. This group will be first up should anyone suffer an injury during the Oilers’ postseason series against the Sharks.

Checking In On The 2014 Draft Class

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This season has been one of the most successful rookie seasons in recent history, with almost a dozen players enjoying seasons that would normally be considered for Calder trophy nomination. That, mixed with the continued success of second year players like Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin has given the reins of the NHL to the youth of the game.

2014 was another solid draft class, headlined by the NHL-ready Aaron Ekblad at first overall. While many of the players in the first round have taken slower routes than those from the 2015 and 2016 groups, they found their footings this season all around the league. Some of the success stories from this year include Leon Draisaitl in Edmonton (3rd overall), William Nylander in Toronto (8th overall), Nikolaj Ehlers in Winnipeg (9th overall) and David Pastrnak in Boston (25th overall).

These are just a few of the very successful young players, but what about those that haven’t made it just yet? Should they be considered busts, just a few short years after their draft? Here are updates on the four players from the 2014 first round who have yet to make their NHL debut.

Conner Bleackley, 23rd overall, Colorado Avalanche

In perhaps the most interesting story of the four, Bleackley never did sign with the Avalanche and was traded to the Arizona Coyotes last February. With his rights in tow, the Coyotes decided to take the supplemental second-round pick that would be compensation for him re-entering the draft. When Bleackley did put his name into the draft again, he fell all the way to the fifth round where the St. Louis Blues selected him 144th overall. Injuries decimated much of Bleackley’s junior career, and he split this season between the Chicago Wolves of the AHL and the Missouri Mavericks of the ECHL. He’s still a long way from an NHL game.

Travis Sanheim, 17th overall, Philadelphia Flyers

Sanheim returned to the Calgary Hitmen for two additional seasons after being selected in the first round and exploded offensively, recording 65 and 68 points from the blue line. His playmaking ability allowed him to dominate the junior league, and has transferred quite well to the AHL this season. With 37 points in 76 games for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, Sanheim is set for his first taste of playoff hockey at the professional ranks. Though he’s not a perfect prospect, he’ll easily get a chance sooner than later in Philadelphia,

Haydn Fleury, 7th overall, Carolina Hurricanes

While Fleury has continued to progress as a solid two-way defender in the Hurricanes’ system, you can be sure they regret not taking Nylander or Ehlers after seeing them debut so strongly. With Carolina now apparently dangling some of their young defenders to try and acquire more scoring, they could have saved themselves the trouble in the draft. That’s not to take anything away from Fleury though, who put up a solid rookie season in the AHL with 26 points in 69 games. If Carolina does in fact move one of their NHL pieces, Fleury will be sure to get a look in the next year or so. He’s still just 20, and is starting to fill out nicely into his 6’3″ frame.

Michael Dal Colle, 5th overall, New York Islanders

Everything looked good in the first year after the Islanders picked Dal Colle, as he put up 93 points in 56 games for the Oshawa Generals and dominated the playoffs with 31 more points. The next season though saw a step backwards, with only 25 points in 30 games before being traded to the Kingston Frontenacs mid-season. Rebounding with his new team, Dal Colle has still given Islanders’ fans slight worry that he’ll never become the elite goal-scoring winger he was projected as.

In his first season with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL Dal Colle put up a solid 41 points in 75 games, but was overshadowed by Josh Ho-Sang, the Islanders other first-round pick from 2014. The Sound Tigers didn’t make the playoffs despite a 44-28-4 record, and now we’ll have to wait to see what adjustments the former fifth-overall pick makes in the summer. He’ll be 21 next season, and will push hard in camp to make the Islanders and prove that they didn’t waste a top pick on him. His skill should shine through eventually, making him a natural compliment to some of the good young forwards in New York.

Expansion Requirements Still Needing Attention

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For teams outside the playoffs, preparation for the summer months starts early. Free agency, coaching staffs, prospect profiles and this year, another interesting workload: the Expansion Draft. For many teams, much of the work to prepare for the expansion draft was already done during the season. We saw extensions for players like Michal Rozsival, trades for fringe forwards like Eric Fehr, and goaltenders given contracts without ever really making an NHL impact.

But still there remains much to be done in preparation for the draft, and contracts should come out over the next month to protect teams from an unexpected loss. Each team must expose at least two forwards and one defender who is both a) under contract for 2017-18 and b) played either 40 games in 2016-17 OR a total of 70 games in 2015-16 and 2016-17 combined. They must also expose one goaltender who is either under contract for 2017-18 or will be an RFA this summer. While much of this depends on who each team decides to protect, these are the situations that will likely see a move or extension handed out before the deadline.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes currently have just three forwards who could fill this requirement: Jamie McGinn, Tobias Rieder and Brad Richardson. While Richardson is an easy choice, the other two don’t deserve to be exposed even if McGinn did have a disappointing year. The easy way to solve it would be extend Josh Jooris, who qualifies but doesn’t have a contract past this season currently. Peter Holland could also be sacrificed, though it’s unclear whether the front office believes in him as a piece going forward for this team.

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Analysts Weigh In On The Stars’ Hiring Of Ken Hitchcock

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The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell says it’s necessity, and not nostalgia, that led Ken Hitchcock back to Dallas. Writing that the Stars are a “mess” in net and on the blue line, Campbell sees Hitchcock as the perfect tonic for a team struggling to find an identity and build on its successes during the 2015-16 season.  From Campbell:

Hitchcock, of course, is the only coach in franchise history to win a Stanley Cup in Dallas. And hooking up with the old ex certainly worked out for Claude Julien and the Montreal Canadiens, Randy Carlyle and the Anaheim Ducks and Paul Maurice and the Carolina Hurricanes.

And there’s no doubt that the market’s familiarity with Hitchcock is a nice bonus, GM Jim Nill is far too smart to pass over more qualified candidates just to get the band back together. Ken Hitchcock is coaching the Dallas Stars next season because Ken Hitchcock is exactly what the Dallas Stars need next season.

Campbell believes that Hitchcock will prove an immediate gain for the penalty kill, which was a source of discontent for Dallas all season. He also writes that Hitchcock should improve the overall defensive strategy, which in turn, will help the netminders, who have been underwhelming.

  • Meanwhile, the Dallas Morning-News’ Mike Heika recalls that it was after a visit to Detroit in 2010 that Hitchcock became acquainted with Nill, who was then the assistant general manager in Detroit. Heika cautions that for this to work, Nill has to unconditionally support Hitchcock, who has been known to rankle his players–going back to his first stint in Dallas. He adds that this shouldn’t be challenging for Nill, since Detroit did employ two of the toughest coaches in terms of mindset: Scotty Bowman and Mike Babcock.
  • Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski rejects the nostalgia route as well, believing that it was absolutely the hire that Nill had to make. Hitchcock, Wyshynski writes, is exactly the guy to stop the Stars’ slide and make them a more defensively competent team. Further,  the netminder between the pipes is irrelevant as Hitch succeeded regardless of the goalie during his other stops. Outside of perhaps Eddie Belfour, Hitchcock delivered winners in spite of goalies who rarely stole games for his team. Instead, it was defensive prowess that Hitchcock used to win, and will use again to get Dallas back to where they should be.

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