Salary Cap Deep Dive: Carolina Hurricanes
Navigating the Salary Cap is probably one of the more important tasks for any general manager to have. Teams that can avert total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2017-18 season. This will focus more on those players who are integral parts of the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Carolina Hurricanes
Current Cap Hit: $57,799,166 (under the $75MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Sebastian Aho (Two years remaining, $925K)
D Noah Hanifin (One year remaining, $925K)
D Brett Pesce (One year remaining, $809K)
D Jaccob Slavin (One year remaining, $743K)
Potential Bonuses
Aho: $850K
Hanifin: $850K
Pesce: $33K
Slavin: $133K
Total: $1.865MM
Carolina hasn’t wasted much time handing out some early extensions to their blueliners as Slavin received a seven-year, $37.1MM deal while Pesce inked a six-year pact worth $24.125MM in total earlier this offseason. Both deals will kick in for 2018-19. That locked up two of their core defenders through the rest of their RFA-eligible seasons plus three and two years respectively of their UFA eligibility.
As for the third defenseman on the list, the team has also expressed an interest in getting another contract for Hanifin done although there have been no formal discussions yet on one. The former fifth overall pick has played a regular role in his first two seasons but hasn’t progressed a lot and as a result, he’s more likely to wait until next offseason to sign.
Aho had a very productive rookie season that went under the radar thanks to some of the other well-known freshmen. He has already established himself as a legitimate top-six winger and if that carries over for the next two seasons, he’ll be in great shape to continue the trend of bypassing the bridge deal and landing a long-term, big money contract, something that GM Ron Francis is clearly comfortable doing.
One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level
D Klas Dahlbeck ($850K, RFA)
F Josh Jooris ($775K, UFA)
F Elias Lindholm ($2.7MM, RFA)
F Joakim Nordstrom ($1.275MM, RFA)
F Derek Ryan ($1.425MM, UFA)
F Lee Stempniak ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Trevor van Riemsdyk ($825K, RFA)
G Cam Ward ($3.3MM, UFA)
Lindholm has yet to take the big leap offensively that the team has been hoping for and as a result, he’s still more of a second line center. Even if he hovers around the 40-50 point range again in 2017-18 though, he’ll have a chance to potentially double his AAV with the demand for quality players down the middle. Stempniak was basically a placeholder for some of their younger players last year and will do so once again. At this stage, it’s more likely that he’s traded in-season over signing a new deal. If there’s ever such a thing as a bridge contract for a 30-year-old, Ryan has it. He was off the radar just two years ago but more than held his own last season. If he can repeat that this season, he’ll hit the market with a much stronger case to market to other teams. Nordstrom and Jooris are likely to hold down depth roles and their next deals (or those for their replacements) will come in around the same amount.
The Hurricanes quietly added van Riemsdyk from the Golden Knights after expansion and he’ll have a chance to fortify their third pairing which suits him quite well. While his potentially lower ice time will hurt his bargaining power, he’ll still be in line to at least double his salary with arbitration rights while sitting within a year of unrestricted free agency next summer.
Ward has been with Carolina since they drafted him back in 2002 but his time with the team may be coming to an end. His numbers the past several seasons have been rather pedestrian which played a big role in them trading for a new starter this offseason. Regardless of where he winds up for 2018-19, he’s likely in line for a notable pay cut, especially when the free agent market looks like it will have several players in his situation next offseason.
Carolina Hoping For Darling Of A Season
Carolina have been perceived as ‘winners’ of this off-season, despite accomplishing only minor upgrades on paper. Outside of signing their own RFAs, Carolina acquired Marcus Kruger and Trevor van Riemsdyk in trades. In the free agent market, they acquired the services of senior Justin Williams via UFA. Although solid acquisitions, Carolina was nowhere near a contender prior to these transactions. So to what do we attribute the grand sense of optimism in and around Raleigh?
Summarizing Adam Gretz of NBC Sports: Scott Darling. Darling was acquired back in April after the Blackhawks were eliminated from playoff contention. Subsequently, the team relieved itself of Eddie Lack‘s services by offloading him to the Calgary Flames, while relegating long-time Cane Cam Ward to the backup role. Gretz rightfully spotlights Darling as a potential saviour to the team in the short-term. Darling certainly has the credentials to backstop an NHL team, as his career .924 save percentage is quite impressive. Last year, he tallied a 18-5-5 record – he seems ready to perform. Gretz also showcases the fact that Carolina allowed the second-least amount of shots against in the past three seasons (behind Los Angeles), while the goals-against-average was on the lower end of the middle pack. He points to the success of Carey Price on a middling Canadiens squad as rationale to hope for a resurgence in the standings.
Although Gretz is correct in assuming Carolina will likely improve, it doesn’t necessarily ensure a playoff berth. In the Metropolitan division, even the Islanders’ 94 points were insufficient to land the team Spring hockey. Four teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Columbus, NY Rangers) all finished above 100 points. The Hurricanes finished with 87. Although Victor Rask and Sebastien Aho are nearly certain to have improved outputs, the competition remains fierce. The team will need to avoid multiple game losing streaks and start the season off on the correct foot. Although impressive down the season’s stretch, Carolina couldn’t clinch their first berth since 2009. If coach Bill Peters is to remain in his current position, he will need quick, inspiring success in 2017.
Although an 8-point improvement is certainly within the realm of possibility, Carolina will need to rely on health and the steady progression of its young players. Elias Lindholm and Teuvo Teravainen could both push for 20 goals, and Aho could easily become a star. If tides turn for the worse, however, expect GM Ron Francis to be proactive in his approach, despite the re-assuring words provided to Chip Alexander of the News & Observer. Francis certainly has room to be active on the trade market as well, with 8 upcoming free agents (4 UFA, 4 RFA) in 2018, and a wealth of space to maneuver. With an astounding $17.2 MM in space, it will nevertheless be difficult for Francis to successfully lobby for the acquisition of a large contract, considering the tenuous owner situation. Still, ownership should allow its GM marginal leeway in the hopes of catapulting the Canes into the the post-season. If Francis does go on the hunt for additional roster players, it would likely take the form of additional scoring or a veteran defender. Those first few months in Raleigh very well could determine the season’s trajectory, so those who are hungry for movement might look toward the tar heel state for early action.
Hurricanes Open To Extension Talks With Hanifin
While the Hurricanes have moved quickly to ink blueliners Brett Pesce (six years. $4.05MM AAV) and Jaccob Slavin (seven years, $5.3MM) to long-term extensions this summer, it doesn’t appear the same will be happening for defenseman Noah Hanifin in the near future. Speaking with Chip Alexander of the News & Observer, GM Ron Francis noted that the team is open to working on an extension but there have yet to be any negotiations on a new deal with his agent.
Hanifin has spent the last two years in Carolina after they drafted him fifth overall in 2015. While his offensive numbers went up slightly last season (from 22 to 29 points), his defensive game still needs improvement and head coach Bill Peters wasn’t comfortable handing him a higher workload in his sophomore campaign as he averaged 17:55 per night, one second more than his average in 2015-16. Accordingly, it’s easy to understand why the Hurricanes would like to get something done but from Hanifin’s perspective, it may make more sense for him to wait it out in the hopes of a big year before he hits restricted free agency.
Upcoming UFA Goaltenders With Something To Prove
Next year’s goaltending UFA crop may lack star power, but it does contain many interesting potential rehabilitation projects. This season provides those pending UFA goaltenders with an opportunity to turn things around and show teams that they are worth more than their current reputation belies. Whether it’s a former starter regulated to backup duties, or an aging veteran with just enough left in the tank, the following goaltenders can significantly improve their stock going into unrestricted free agency.
Jonathan Bernier – Colorado Avalanche – $2.75MM
The Colorado Avalanche signed the former Toronto Maple Leafs starter to a one-year deal worth $2.75MM this season to back up presumed starter Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov struggled last season, dealing with injuries and his worst stat line in his career. The Avalanche hope that Bernier can provide steady goaltending if Varlamov continues to slide or cannot shoulder a full starter’s load. If Bernier steps up and performs admirably, he could be in line for a starters position during the offseason. Last season saw Bernier player with the Anaheim Ducks and put up his best numbers in years. Part of that is the superior team in front of him, but it shows that given the proper tools, Bernier can be a serviceable starter in the league.
Eddie Lack – Calgary Flames – $2.75MM ($1.375 retained)
The Carolina Hurricanes traded Lack to the Calgary Flames this summer and agreed to retain 50% of his salary. Lack now has the opportunity to back up new Flames signee Mike Smith. Smith turns 36 this season, and will experience the injury woes that go along with veteran goaltenders. Lack will have an opportunity to step up and show teams that he still has the skills to become a starting goaltender. He is only two seasons removed from posting a .921 SV% and a 2.45GAA in 41 games for the Vancouver Canucks.
Ondrej Pavelec – New York Rangers – $1.3MM
Continuing with the reclamation projects backing up older veterans, Pavelec has a chance to show NHL GMs what he can do behind a very good team. In Pavelec’s ten year career he has seen the playoffs just once—with the Winnipeg Jets in 2014-15—and can benefit from the Rangers’ stacked defensive corps. Luckily, his bar is set low after his worst statistical season since 2008-09. Last season Pavelec played in just eight games, earning a .888 SV% and a 3.55 GAA. He was not much better the season before, with a .904 SV% and a 2.78 GAA. Mired by a reputation for being shaky and inconsistent, this may be Pavelec’s last opportunity to convince GMs to take a flier on the former 2nd round pick.
Cam Ward – Carolina Hurricanes – $3.3MM
Ward is over a decade removed from his Stanley Cup-winning playoff performance, but since then he has been the model of consistency. Unfortunately, he has been consistently average. And once again, Ward will have some true competition coming into camp. The Carolina Hurricanes signed former Chicago Blackhawks backup Scott Darling to a $4.15MM a year contract, signalling who the team prefers to earn the starting role going forward. Ward has already experienced this before with Eddie Lack, and eventually Lack was moved out to Calgary. This time, however, a decent season may not end with a new contract from the Hurricanes, but it will garner interest from other NHL teams.
Antti Raanta – Arizona Coyotes – $1MM
Raanta is the only goaltender on this list who is not a reclamation project. The Finnish netminder has backed up elite goaltenders Corey Crawford and Henrik Lundqvist, and now has the opportunity to take the starting reins in Arizona. The New York Rangers shipped Raanta alongside Derek Stepan to the Arizona Coyotes for Anthony DeAngelo and the 7th overall pick earlier this summer. Raanta is fresh off of a 30 games season where he earned a .922 GAA and a 2.26 SV%, significantly better than Lundqvist’s .910 SV% and 2.74 GAA. If Raanta can maintain his statline for a full season in Arizona, he will be in line for a large pay increase.
Eddie Lack Knew He Would Be Traded After Darling Signing
- Eddie Lack knew he’d be sent out of town after the Carolina Hurricanes traded for and signed Scott Darling. Lack tells Hockeysverige in Sweden that Calgary was basically a dream scenario, reunited with Glen Gulutzan and paired with Mike Smith on a team expected to compete for the Stanley Cup. Lack has just one year left before becoming an unrestricted free agent, and if he can steal the starting job from Smith at some point he’ll be highly sought after on the open market.
Hurricanes Waiting Before Dealing Defensive Depth
After four years of being at or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference, the Carolina Hurricanes are working hard to ensure that they team begins to make a turnaround. Their offseason spoke to that as they went out and acquired goaltender Scott Darling, signed former Hurricane Justin Williams to a two-year deal and traded for center Marcus Kruger and defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk.
What the team is lacking however, is a top center that could help anchor their first or second line. The Hockey News’ Lyle Richardson writes the team should consider moving some of their young defensive depth to accommodate this need. While general manager Ron Francis has done an excellent job stockpiling talent, the team suddenly has quite a bit of it on defense and might be able to pull off a deal for a quality center, perhaps even being a good trading partner for the Colorado Avalanche’s Matt Duchene.
The team already has three defensemen locked up long term. Justin Faulk had an excellent season last year and still has three years left on his deal at $4.83MM per season. The 25-year-old blueliner is coming off a 17-goal season. The team also inked two of their young defenders within the last month to long-term deals in Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce. Slavin finished the year with five goals and 29 assists, while Pesce tallied two goals and 18 assists, both in their second year in the league. Former fifth-overall pick in 2015 Noah Hanifin is also looking good and was picked as a third-year breakout candidate by PHR’s Gavin Lee. In his second year in the league as well, Hanifin had four goals and 25 assists. Throw in 26-year olds Klas Dahlbeck and van Riemsdyk as well as 2016 first-round pick Jake Bean and the team’s defense is deep.
One holdup may be that Francis may want to see how each of these young defenders develop before trading them off. Any of them could have a breakout season in the next year or two. So while a deal may not be imminent, the Hurricanes do have the assets to pull off a major deal.
Expiring NCAA Draft Rights
Will Butcher and Alex Kerfoot have graced many headlines over the last few months, as players who will be heading to free agency next week when their exclusive draft rights expire. Since they finished their senior years without an NHL entry-level contract, they can test the market on August 16th and sign wherever they want.
They’re not the only two, and CapFriendly provides us with a full list of players whose rights will expire next week. Several of the names listed have already signed minor league contracts with various organizations for next year, and will be excluded from the list below. The remaining players are as follows:
Sam Kurker – St. Louis Blues (2nd round, 2012)
Taylor Cammarata – New York Islanders (3rd round, 2013)
Chris Calnan – Chicago Blackhawks (3rd round, 2013)
Rhett Holland – Arizona Coyotes (4th round, 2012)
Zach Nagelvoort – Edmonton Oilers (4th round, 2014)
Will Butcher – Colorado Avalanche (5th round, 2013)
Doyle Somerby – New York Islanders (5th round, 2012)
Dominic Toninato – Toronto Maple Leafs (5th round, 2012)
Evan Campbell – Edmonton Oilers (5th round, 2013)
Connor Clifton – Arizona Coyotes (5th round, 2013)
Teemu Kivihalme – Nashville Predators (5th round, 2013)*
Grant Besse – Anaheim Ducks (5th round, 2013)
Alex Kerfoot – New Jersey Devils (5th round, 2012)
Ben Storm – Colorado Avalanche (6th round, 2013)
Tim Harrison – Calgary Flames (6th round, 2013)
Collin Olson – Carolina Hurricanes (6th round, 2012)
Chris Leblanc – Ottawa Senators (6th round, 2013)
Clifford Watson – San Jose Sharks (6th round, 2012)
James De Haas – Detroit Red Wings (6th round, 2012)
Blaine Byron – Pittsburgh Penguins (6th round, 2013)
Wade Murphy – Nashville Predators (7th round, 2013)
Brendan Collier – Carolina Hurricanes (7th round, 2012)
Jedd Soleway – Arizona Coyotes (7th round, 2013)
Nolan De Jong – Minnesota Wild (7th round, 2013)
*Has signed with Karpat of the Finnish Liiga.
Many of these players spent time in the minor leagues this past spring on amateur tryout contracts, but will become free agents if not signed by end of day on August 15th. That gives teams time to still get them into their system, but in cases like Toninato there may just not be enough room to fit him in on an entry-level contract. Even those on minor league deals will be free agents at the end of their contract, as those do not protect exclusive draft rights.
Third-Year Breakout Candidates
In the NFL, there is a prevailing theory that it takes wide receivers a few years to really establish themselves as forces in the league. Their third year is pointed at as a potential “breakout” period, when they can take a substantial step forward after learning how to better control their bodies and become accustomed to the league. While every year there are impact rookies in the NHL, there are still those that follow this same path. Despite getting plenty of playing time, they just don’t seem to put it together until that third season.
In 2016-17 we had plenty of examples of a player taking a huge step forward in his third NHL season. Many follow a normal development path like Leon Draisaitl, jumping from nine points in limited action, to 51 in his sophomore year and 77 in his third and best season so far. David Pastrnak—who remains unsigned by the Boston Bruins—on the other hand may be the best example of a third-year breakout. He registered 27 and 26 points in his first two seasons before finding another level last year to score 70 points. His jump of 54 points was one of the biggest in the league, and it came in just 75 games.
Jonathan Drouin came back from his troubled 2014-15 season to post a career-high 53 points last year in his third go-round, finally coming through on his drool-worthy offensive potential with some real production. Viktor Arvidsson was finally given a full-time opportunity in his third season and jumped from 22 career points to 61 in a single season (though it’s hard to even call his first year a real season since he only got into six games).
This year there are plenty of candidates for a breakout. Players who though performing admirably haven’t quite reached their potential during the first two seasons of their NHL careers, and could take a considerable step forward this season.
Colton Parayko – St. Louis Blues
Normally a defenseman who has started his career with 68 points in 160 games would be seen as a glowing success and not a breakout candidate, but that’s just how high the ceiling is for Parayko. With Kevin Shattenkirk moved on to greener pastures, Parayko should have even more opportunity to prove himself as one of the league’s young superstars. There is ample room to improve on his career-high of 35 points, and it’s not out of the question that he will receive Norris trophy votes as soon as this season.
Remember Parayko was drafted back in 2012, and ended up going to the University of Alaska for three seasons before entering professional hockey. He’s now 24, armed with a huge contract extension and ready to make it clear that he should be considered among the top tier of defensemen.
Noah Hanifin – Carolina Hurricanes
Hanifin has done everything the Hurricanes have asked of him, but still hasn’t come close to the rock solid top-pairing player that he flashed as a freshman in Boston College. Hanifin took over games in the college ranks, but has settled into a good-but-not-great role in Carolina. Sitting behind Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce and Justin Faulk on the depth chart, Hanifin could experience a similar breakout to Jacob Trouba if an injury forces him into a bigger role.
It’s interesting that fans have speculated on Hanifin being the odd man out in Carolina in trade scenarios for an upgrade at forward, even though his draft pedigree and early results should make him almost untouchable. He won’t turn 21 until January of next year and could easily find himself in the conversation as the Hurricanes’ best defenseman should he reach his immense ceiling.
Robby Fabbri – St. Louis Blues
Fabbri was well on his way to having a breakout season in his second year, playing at a near-50 point pace through 51 games. His season would be cut short in February when he suffered a knee injury, making 2017-18 one to watch for the young forward. In what should be an exceptional St. Louis offense, Fabbri is still sort of a wild card. Right now it looks like he may get to play with newcomer Brayden Schenn on the team’s second line, and in that spot he’ll hardly ever face the opponent’s best defensive group (they’ll be reserved for Vladimir Tarasenko and company).
Fabbri could easily find himself with a 60-point season this year, as long as the knee is back to 100% by the start of the year. Playing with offensive players like Schenn and Alex Steen will only help him work his magic in the attacking zone.
Nick Ritchie – Anaheim Ducks
Power forwards often take a little more time to develop, and the Ducks are still waiting on Ritchie to take the next step. In 77 games last year he put up 28 points, which while respectable isn’t the top-end goal scoring numbers they’d hoped for when they drafted him 10th overall. That production though came in limited minutes, and if he’s given the opportunity the numbers are sure to follow.
Ritchie played just under 13 minutes a night last season, but saw that number drop even further after Anaheim acquired Patrick Eaves at the deadline. Eaves is back, but he’s also now 33-years old and could take a big step back next season. If powerplay time becomes available, Ritchie could have a breakout season on his hands.
Oliver Bjorkstrand – Columbus Blue Jackets
Like Arvidsson, you can barely call Bjorkstrand’s first two years with Columbus seasons. He’s played in 38 games over the past two years, spending most of the time in the AHL instead. Still, he has provided tantalizing results in the minor leagues and has 21 points in his limited NHL sample. Even if that rate continued it would be a 45 point season for the third-round pick, good enough to constitute a breakout in his third season. But with Bjorkstrand there is even more upside.
In the WHL, the Danish forward dominated the competition scoring 144 goals in 193 games and has elite hockey sense with the puck. His nose for the net and ability to slide into undefended areas would allow him to be a consistent NHL scoring threat if given the chance. There are a ton of weapons in the Blue Jackets forward group, but if he were to find some early camp chemistry with one of the stars Bjorkstrand could easily slide into a top-six option without much resistance.
(*There are many other players who could experience a third-year breakout, and some will be discussed in future articles. This is not meant to be a ranking of any kind.)
Summer Predictions: Metropolitan Division
The hockey world is at a standstill now that August has rolled around. With all of the arbitration cases now decided, and just a few restricted free agents left to sign players and fans alike are counting the days until training camp starts. While there are still several names in free agency that could still help an NHL club, it seems like many are destined either for professional tryouts or late-summer deals after injuries strike.
So now we’ll get into our summer predictions. Before the start of the year we’ll be releasing a full season preview with projections for each club and the expected playoff teams, but first we’ll ask you to give us your take on how you believe each division will end up. We’ll start with the Metropolitan Division, where defending Stanley Cup champions Pittsburgh will try for a three-peat in 2017-18.
Choose who you think will win the Metropolitan this season, and make sure to leave your full prediction for the division standings in the comments. We’ll be sure to publish these results alongside our own PHR rankings in September.
Who will win the Metropolitan Division?
-
Pittsburgh Penguins 41% (661)
-
New York Rangers 16% (264)
-
Washington Capitals 13% (204)
-
Columbus Blue Jackets 12% (196)
-
Philadelphia Flyers 8% (132)
-
New York Islanders 4% (70)
-
New Jersey Devils 3% (55)
-
Carolina Hurricanes 2% (35)
Total votes: 1,617
[Mobile users click here to vote!]
Hurricanes Still Talking Deals With Other Teams
- Hurricanes GM Ron Francis is still talking with other teams about possible moves, he told NHL.com’s Tom Gulitti. However, he is prepared to enter next season with the roster he has if nothing else pans out. Carolina has already added several players this offseason including new starting goaltender Scott Darling, defenseman Trevor van Riemsdyk, and center Marcus Kruger while most recently inking blueliners Jaccob Slavin and Brett Pesce to long-term extensions.