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Trade Candidates: Ron Hainsey

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Two weeks ago, the Carolina Hurricanes had been one of the bigger surprises of the NHL season. They were flying high, riding a four-game winning streak and sitting in playoff position, when many thought they would be one of the NHL’s worst teams in 2016-17. Then they hit a rough patch that could derail any team: a four-game stretch that included two road games against the Columbus Blue Jackets and a visit to the Washington Capitals, sandwiched around a home game against the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Hurricanes were losers of five straight entering All-Star weekend and are now tied for last in the Metropolitan Division.

Back when Carolina was in postseason position, no one was more excited than veteran defenseman Ron Hainsey. The NHL’s 39th-ranked leader in games played among active players wit 883, Hainsey holds the unfortunate mark of having played the most regular season games without ever going to the playoffs. After 14 years on bottom-dwellers, the 35-year-old Hainsey may want to be traded to a contender and the Hurricanes may be willing to deal him.

Contract

Hainsey is in the final season of a three-year, $8.5MM deal signed with the Hurricanes back in 2014. The deal hold a cap hit of $2.83MM, but only a salary of $2.5MM in it’s final year. With the majority of the cap hit accrued by the Hurricanes by the time the Trade Deadline rolls around, nearly any team would be able to absorb Hainsey’s contract, which will be worth under $1MM. However, he has a limited No-Trade Clause that allows him to select 15 teams he would go to. Since only 16 teams make the playoffs, Hainsey stands a pretty good chance of being moved to a contender if he or the team chooses to do so.

2016-17

The Hurricanes boast one of the most impressive defensive units in all of hockey, led by All-Star Justin Faulk and highlighted by young phenoms Noah Hanifin, Jaccob Slavin, and Brett Pesce. However, it’s Hainsey that acts as the group’s mentor and ties everyone together. Usually paired with Faulk, Hainsey can still eat up minutes and knows how to sit back and play physical while Faulk handles the puck-moving. He can also be relied on for special teams responsibilities and makes the perfect outlet pass from time to time. Still a tough player who’s not afraid to block a shot or throw a check, Hainsey is capable of playing hard-nosed playoff hockey, if only given the opportunity.

Season Stats

48 games: 2 goals, 9 assists, 11 points, -10, 22:14 ATOI, 68 hits, 82 blocks

Potential Suitors

Even teams with ample defensive depth are often not opposed to bringing in veteran defensemen at the deadline to help out down the stretch and bring some maturity and leadership to the locker room. Although Hainsey has no postseason experience, he has played in close to 900 NHL games and has held leadership positions in Atlanta, Winnipeg, and now in Carolina. With a low cap hit and likely not a terribly high cost, Hainsey could be seen as very attractive to many teams.

The Toronto Maple Leafs in particular could be a logical destination for the left-shot blue liner. Though not as locked into a playoff spot as maybe Hainsey would like, their need for defensive depth and veteran leadership is clear. The Leafs are still a young, rebuilding team and may not be willing to part with much for a player of Hainsey’s caliber, but if their current starting six, which includes Matt Hunwick, Roman Polak, and Frank Corrado even resembles their playoff unit, they won’t go far.

The Dallas Stars are another fringe postseason team that Hainsey might hesitate to commit to, but that desperately needs a veteran with some ability on the back end. With Johnny Oduya injured and Dan Hamhuis struggling, the Stars could certainly use an upgrade over Esa Lindell or Patrik Nemeth come playoff time.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Dependent on how the Hurricanes perform from here on out, Hainsey may be more valuable to them than in a trade. If Carolina can take advantage of a February schedule that isn’t too difficult, they can creep back into the postseason conversation. If they hold on to Hainsey, they face another light schedule in March and could potentially make the playoffs. Hainsey would be one of the more valuable assets on the roster should that happen. However, it won’t be easy.

What makes Carolina’s defense so appealing is also what makes a player like Hainsey so expendable. With a young core and the likes of Haydn Fleury, Roland McKeown, and Jake Bean waiting in the wings, the Hurricanes are not desperate to hold onto defensemen. If they’re not going to make the playoffs, it seems extremely likely that they will move Hainsey, for the good of the team and to give a long-time reliable player a shot at postseason glory. Besides, he’s a free agent; they can always bring him back if they want to.

Duchene Reportedly Open To Trade

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Matt Duchene, frequently a subject of trade rumors this season, is open to being dealt from last-place Colorado, according to The Denver Post’s Mark Kiszla. The scribe spoke to the gifted center who told him that he understands the business side of the game and that he would be ready to move on from the only NHL home he has ever known.

“I’m open to it,” Duchene said Wednesday. “When I say open to it, I know it’s part of the business, and it’s something that might happen. I’m not hiding from it. I’m not running away. I’m not banging my head. I understand it’s part of what we deal with as pro athletes.”

“The trade rumor stuff is part of the business. I understand that at this juncture of the season, (with) the way things are going, something may happen, something may not. We’ll see.”

With the Colorado Avalanche’s season effectively off the rails it’s become clear the roster, as presently constructed, is fatally flawed. GM Joe Sakic has demonstrated tremendous faith in the core he’s helped assemble but it’s clear the time has come to move on and start over. Dealing Duchene would potentially represent the first major step in that direction.

There would be no shortage of suitors interested in adding the skilled Duchene. The 26-year-old center has tallied 20 goals or more in five of his seven full seasons and with 15 in 41 contests it’s a near certainty he will again reach that threshold during the 2016-17 campaign. Over his career, Duchene has averaged 26.2 goals for every 82 games played at the NHL level. There isn’t a team in the league who wouldn’t like to add that type of production to their lineup; the question is what it would cost to do so.

In desperate need to upgrade the blue line, the Avalanche will likely insist on a high-end, young defenseman to headline any trade packages for Duchene. Klisz suggests Colorado call Carolina to inquire about Denver native Jaccob Slavin. The 22-year-old Slavin is in his second NHL season and has tallied 17 points in 47 games for the Hurricanes. As a rookie, he registered a 20-point campaign in 63 appearances. Slavin would appear to represent a solid starting point in potential negotiations, but it’s likely the Avalanche would seek more in any deal for Duchene.

The Hurricanes would certainly welcome a boost to their mediocre offensive attack but how high of a price are they willing to pay? The team does boast an enviable group of blue liners, including those already at the NHL level and in their prospect pipeline, and a case could be made that Duchene is exactly the type of proven player the team should target. With two more seasons on his deal coming with a cap hit of $6MM, Duchene is a player who can help Carolina both today and into the future.

While other names have been linked to trade rumors in Colorado, such as that of team captain Gabriel Landeskog, it seems most likely Duchene will be on the move sooner rather than later. With his track record of individual success – including multiple gold medals representing Team Canada on the international circuit – age, and contractual control, clubs will be willing to pony up the necessary assets to pry the pivot away from Colorado.

Minor Transactions: 1/19/17

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Here is where we’ll keep tabs on today’s minor roster moves:

  • Minnesota announced that they have recalled defenseman Mike Reilly from Iowa of the AHL. He has spent the bulk of the year in the minors and has four goals and 11 assists in 29 AHL contests.  Reilly also has played in nine games with the Wild, being held off the scoresheet while averaging 12:57 of ice time per night.
  • Carolina has swapped backup goalies, announcing that they have recalled Michael Leighton while assigning Alex Nedeljkovic back to their AHL affiliate in Charlotte. The two swapped places earlier this week, allowing Leighton to get into a couple of minor league games to stay in game shape.  Eddie Lack, the regular backup for the Hurricanes, remains out of the lineup indefinitely due to a concussion.
  • Buffalo announced that they have summoned goalie Linus Ullmark from Rochester (AHL). Mike Harrington of the Buffalo News reports (Twitter link) that Anders Nilsson is dealing with the flu so Ullmark will take his place in the interim.  This is the fourth recall for Ullmark this year but he has yet to see action with the Sabres this year.  He has a 15-13-1 record in the minors this year with a 3.03 GAA and a .908 SV%.
  • Ottawa has recalled right winger Casey Bailey from AHL Binghamton per their Twitter page. The Sens are currently dealing with a flu bug, notes Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun.  Bailey has played in four games for the Senators this season being held off the scoresheet but sits tied for second in goals in Binghamton with 10 in 33 minor league outings.
  • The Canucks swapped out depth defenders, announcing that they’ve recalled Jordan Subban while sending Andrey Pedan back to Utica (AHL). Subban leads all Comets blueliners with 22 points this season and has not yet played in the NHL.  As for Pedan, he had been up for the better part of a month but did not suit up in Vancouver and was close to needing waivers to be sent back down having been up for 29 days.
  • In what is becoming a daily shuffle, Anaheim announced the recall of winger Stefan Noesen from San Diego of the AHL.  It’s the fourth straight day that he has either been recalled or demoted as the Ducks look to conserve as much cap space as possible.  Noesen has a goal in nine NHL games with Anaheim this season while adding 15 points in 22 minor league contests.

Hurricanes Recall Alex Nedeljkovic

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The Carolina Hurricanes’ backup goalie carousel continues to go ’round and ’round. While Eddie Lack remains sidelined, the ’Canes have relied heavily on starter Cam Ward, who has now started 14 straight games. While Ward has performed admirably, with a .915 save percentage and 2.34 goals against average thus far in 2016-17, the long-time Carolina keeper will need a rest eventually. He didn’t get one from Daniel Altshuller, who was called up early in January and then sent back down the next day, nor has he been relieved at all by veteran Michael Leighton, who has been the backup since. The team has announced today that they’ll move on to a third option, demoting Leighton and promoting top goalie prospect Alex Nedeljkovic. 

Nedeljkovic, the Hurricanes’ 2014 second-round pick, was once seen as the future in net in Carolina. The Ohio native made a name for himself leading up to his draft year with a .924 SV% and 2.70 GAA combined over his first two junior seasons with the OHL’s Plymouth Whalers, as well as sub-2.00 GAA’s with short stints with the U.S. National Development Team and Team USA at the U-18 World Juniors in 2013-14. However, the young keeper’s career has been in somewhat of a tailspin ever since. Nedeljkovic struggled to return to form for the Whalers in 2014-15, posting a 3.13 GAA in 55 games. He then split the 2015-16 season between two new OHL teams, the Flint Firebirds and Niagara Ice Dogs, but was unable to get back to his pre-draft numbers with either of those squads too. The lone bright spot was a fantastic performance for Team USA at the World Juniors, an unreal .943 SV% and 1.66 GAA in nine games, that came seemingly out of the blue. In this, his first pro season, Nedeljkovic has spent time in the ECHL with the Florida Everblades, where he has played well, but has also played the majority of the early campaign with the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, where his performance has been far from encouraging. In 18 appearances, Nedeljkovic has been abysmal at the AHL level. He has an .884 SV% and 3.30 GAA, which has somehow actually been better than Altshuller, but has been a disappointment for the organization.

With this call-up, perhaps the Hurricanes are hoping that Nedeljkovic will shine in the spotlight. His career seems to be one of a player that thrives under pressure, with his best performances coming in his draft year and on the international stage. Ward needs to take a game off sooner rather than later, and Carolina can benefit more from letting Nedeljkovic have his first NHL shot than giving long-in-the-tooth Leighton the start. However, he may be thrown into the fire, as the Hurricanes upcoming slate is vicious. They face the Columbus Blue Jackets on the road next, host the Pittsburgh Penguins, go to Coumbus again, and then head to Washington to take on the Capitals. The young goalie will need some major luck if he makes his debut in any of those contests.

Snapshots: NHL Three Stars, Toews, Bickell, Maple Leafs

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Nicklas Backstrom, Brad Marchand, and Brock McGinn have been named the NHL’s Three Stars of the Week.

Backstrom had three goals and 10 points in four games as the Capitals continued their nine-game winning streak. He has 13 points on that winning streak, and is currently on a six-game point streak. Backstrom is 10th in NHL scoring with 42 points in 43 games.

Marchand had the second-most points in the last week (behind only the aforementioned first star of the week) with 4-4-8 in three games. He had a three-point game in the Bruins’ win over the Blues before being held pointless in a loss to Nashville. He finished off the week with a career-high five-point night in a 6-3 win over Philadelphia. Marchand is seventh in NHL scoring with 43 points in 46 games.

McGinn had seven points in three games as the Hurricanes continued their four-game winning streak. Carolina is now one point out of a wildcard spot in the Eastern Conference. McGinn has 12 points on the season in 28 games this season, with seven coming in the last week.

  • Chicago Blackhawks captain Jonathan Toews may want to remember the old Mark Twain quote which says that “reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.” On his morning appearance on TSN 1260, Bob McKenzie talked about Toews’ struggles and suggested that “a lot of people are writing obituaries on Toews’ career right now,” which McKenzie believes is “real premature.” Toews has 21 points in 37 games this season, which puts him on pace for 41 points in 73 games. That would be a career-low at a time when offensive players ought to be in their prime; even in the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season, Toews scored 48 points in 47 games. Prior to this season, Toews has scored at 0.88 PPG. That’s fallen year-over-year since 12-13, and is now at 0.57. If the Blackhawks want to capitalize on the final year of a cheap Artemi Panarin, they’ll need their captain to kick it into a higher gear.
  • Some very good news out of Carolina on Monday, as veteran winger Bryan Bickell practiced for the second time in the last week, according to Chip Alexander of the Raleigh News & Observer. Bickell has not played since the end of October, when he was diagnosed with Multiple Sclerosis. Bickell was acquired by the Hurricanes in the summer in a salary-dump trade from Chicago, where he won three Stanley Cups.
  • Over at Maple Leafs practice, Martin Marincin and Frankie Corrado are both on the ice. Marincin is wearing a red non-contact jersey as he returns to practice one month after suffering an injury that was expected to keep him out of the lineup between 4-6 weeks. Meanwhile, Corrado returns to the NHL after a two-week conditioning stint with the Toronto Marlies where he had three assists in seven games. He’s appeared in just one NHL game this season.

Number Crunching: Shootouts

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The shootout is a subject of much debate in the hockey world. For some, a short skills competition at the end of the game is a fine way to decide who earns the extra point. For others, another few minutes of the new 3-on-3 would be a dream. For other still, ties were never an issue, and they’d be fine with their inclusion once again.

Whichever side of the argument you find yourself, the simple fact is that they are in the NHL right now. Every team has to compete in them throughout the season for those all important extra points.  This season only Dallas has yet to be involved in a shootout, while Philadelphia leads the way with nine games ending in one.

The old adage of “it all evens out in the end” almost proves true, as if you were to remove the shootout and just award both teams with a single point if the game was tied after overtime, not a single team would leapfrog another in the standings. It would, however, bring some teams into a tie (points-wise).

The Maple Leafs, with their awful 1-5 record would be tied with their rival Ottawa Senators, instead of chasing them by two points. They would also pull ahead of the Panthers, a team they’re tied with who have played in eight shootouts so far (second most in the league).

Suddenly the Metropolitan would be even tighter, with Washington and Columbus pulling even at the top. Philadelphia would fall into a tie with the Maple Leafs, Senators and Hurricanes for that last wildcard spot however, making things much more interesting.

In the west, where there haven’t been nearly as many shootouts would mostly see the bottom falling out of the standings. Vancouver would drop further back despite their recent run, and Arizona would be in a dog fight with Colorado for the worst team in the NHL; their 4-1 record in shootouts is the best thing about their season thus far.

For individual performances, Thomas Vanek ranks among the best in the league. He’s scored on all three of his attempts this season. Vincent Trocheck, Aleksander Barkov and Jakub Voracek all lead with four goals, though it’s taken each of them at least seven attempts. The worst is Nick Cousins, who has failed to score on each of his six attempts, though Kyle Okposo doesn’t fall far behind going 0-5. Despite leading the league in goals, Sidney Crosby is 0-2 this season in the shootout.

For goaltenders, Steve Mason has faced the most shots. He’s stopped 23 of 30 shooters, registering a pretty solid 76.7 save percentage. Braden Holtby has allowed the most, getting scored on an unbelievable 9 out of 14 times. There are six goaltenders who have stopped every shot they’ve faced, though they’ve all faced seven or fewer.  Tuukka Rask is the man to beat having stopped 16 of 19 attempts. Robin Lehner is on the other side, allowing all six shooters he’s faced to score.

It’s an interesting thing, the shootout. Even players who have incredible success during the game find it difficult to score, while others who aren’t expected to be offensive forces find the back of the net with ease. For now, the shootout is a part of the game – winning there may be the difference between making or missing the playoffs.

Biggest One-For-One Trades Of The Past 10 Years

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For the first time since his shocking trade last June, Taylor Hall is facing off in Edmonton on Thursday night.

The Oilers-Devils trade was one of two major one-for-one trades that took place that day, the other being P.K. Subban for Shea Weber just 17 minutes later. Despite the evidence of June 29, one-for-one trades are exceedingly rare in today’s NHL.

In honor of Hall’s return to Edmonton, let’s take a look at some of the more notable one-for-one swaps of the past decade:

February 26, 2008 – Andrew Ladd for Tuomo Ruutu —  The Chicago Blackhawks and Carolina Hurricanes swapped former top-ten picks at the 2007-08 trade deadline. Nearly nine years later, the trade can be classified as a win for the Blackhawks: Ruutu did score 216 points in 378 games with the Hurricanes but the team only made the playoffs once in his tenure there. Meanwhile, the Blackhawks were just two years away from winning the first Stanley Cup of their modern dynasty; with a Stanley Cup already under his belt, Ladd played a key role in helping the young Hawks learn how to win. Ladd scored 99 points 184 games in Chicago before being sacrificed to the Salary Cap Gods after their 2010 championship.

July 3, 2011 – Dany Heatley for Martin Havlat — Heatley and Havlat were both superstars of the early 21st-century, but neither player was at that level in 2011 when the Sharks and Wild made this trade. The Sharks were looking to improve their roster with hopes of getting to the Stanley Cup Finals after yet another playoff disappointment, but Havlat appeared in just eight playoff games over three years in San Jose. He never played more than 48 games in a season, or scored more than 27 points. Heatley had 82 and 64 points in his two years in San Jose, but was unable to consistently score in Minnesota, finishing his three-year stint with a 28-point season, his last full season in the NHL. Heatley also caused salary cap troubles, as he was unable to be bought-out after his second season due to injury, costing the Wild their last chance to use a compliance buyout on the declining Heatley.

June 23, 2012 – James Van Riemsdyk for Luke Schenn — Maple Leafs fans hoping for their team to trade Van Riemsdyk for a top defenseman may want to look at the trade that brought the power winger to Toronto. Then-GM Brian Burke traded Schenn, a right-handed third-pairing defenseman just four seasons removed from being the fifth-overall selection. Both players were coming off down seasons, as Schenn struggled in a third-pairing role while Van Riemsdyk scored 24 points in 43 games after a 40-point sophomore season. The trade was a clear win for Toronto, as Van Riemsdyk has 211 points in 289 games as a first-line winger while Schenn scored 42 points in 213 games in Philadelphia as a below-average possession player. Schenn was traded last season and signed a cheap show-me deal with Arizona as a UFA. The trade is yet another example of the trade values of average defensemen and scoring wingers.

January 6, 2016 – Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen — The major trade was the first big one-for-one trade in nearly four years, and was a sign of things yet to come in 2016. While it’s too early to declare a definitive winner, as both teams look like they got what they needed with the swap, the early results put Columbus slightly ahead. Jones has 38 points in 75 games so far with the surprising Blue Jackets, who currently sit in first place in NHL standings. The Predators haven’t been as successful as they would have hoped, though Johansen has 63 points in 83 games in Music City. He’s growing into a legitimate first-line center on a contending team, which is what the Predators hoped for when they made the swap. Nashville GM David Poile was initially criticized for trading his young defenseman as Shea Weber showed signs of regression, but that was addressed by on of the below trades.

June 29, 2016 – Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson — The decision to trade Hall was not popular at the time, and is still the most talked-about trade in Edmonton since Chris Pronger asked for a trade in 2006. The Oilers have finally turned the corner and currently sit in third in the Pacific Division. Larsson is a big part of the much-improved defense core, but has just seven points in 43 games. Hall is leading the Devils in scoring with 25 points in 32 games, but the Devils’ offense has not been able to outscore their defensive issues. It must be frustratingly familiar for Hall, who was in a similar situation in Edmonton for six seasons. While the Oilers gave up value, it could be argued that the Devils miss Larsson’s defensive ability more than Edmonton misses Hall’s offence.

June 29, 2016 — Shea Weber for P.K. Subban — After a tough 2015-16, changes were expected in Montreal. But few expected Subban to be the one to go. Like the Hall-Larsson trade made 17 minutes earlier, the Canadian team was panned initially. However, Weber is on pace for a career-high in points while the Canadiens have rebounded to lead the Atlantic Division at the half-way point. Unfortunately for Subban, he’s been injured for much of the season and may require surgery. The Canadiens are the winners of this trade six months in, but considering the four years Weber has on Subban, the verdict will slowly change over the next few years. If either one of these teams win a Stanley Cup in the next few years, that would likely be the deciding factor in naming a winner.

Snapshots: Glass, Hurricanes, Olympics

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News and notes from around the NHL this evening:

  • Goaltender Jeff Glass signed an AHL contract with the Rockford IceHogs today, reports Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston. Glass was released from a PTO from the AHL Toronto Marlies yesterday as the Toronto Maple Leafs prepared to claim Curtis McElhinney off of waivers. Glass has spent the last seven years on various KHL teams after failing to make the NHL with the Ottawa Senators. He had a stellar World Junior Championship in 2005, going 5-0 with a 1.40 GAA en route to Canada’s first gold medal since 1997.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes activated forward Elias Lindholm off of IR today. Lindholm suffered an upper body injury on December 30th against the Chicago Blackhawks, ending a three-game scoring streak. In 30 games this season Lindholm has 4G and 9A. The Hurricanes also assigned Andrej Nestrasil to the AHL Charlotte Checkers after clearing waivers today.
  • Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that the Jan 15th deadline to decide whether NHL players would go to the Olympics has moved to the end of January. This date coincides with another Board of Governors meeting. Friedman speculates that both the NHL and NHLPA are waiting to see exactly what the IIHF will contribute financially. There’s been little update since the NHLPA rejected the NHL’s offer to attend the Olympics in exchange for agreeing to a slate of NHL-hosted international events.

Most Man-Games Missed At Midway Point

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While the headlines follow teams missing multiple major contributors to injury – case in point the resilient 2016-17 Montreal Canadiens, whose injury issues have been well-documented – there’s an argument to be made that losing a greater amount of depth players is in fact more detrimental to a team’s success, even if it doesn’t garner as much attention. ESPN’s Matthew Coller examined the amount of ice time, in man-game minutes, lost this season due to injury and the resulting success or failure of the most injured and most healthy teams. Despite the story line, the Canadiens only rank tenth right now in missed minutes, perhaps providing some explanation to how they have maintained their winning ways despite being banged up. Other teams have not been so lucky.

Of the five most injured teams in the first half of 2016-17, four have drastically underachieved, even though you might not suspect that they have had such bad injury struggles. At the top of the list is the Detroit Red Wings, whose historic playoff streak is in extreme jeopardy as they sit in the basement of the Atlantic Division through 40 games. Two of their season’s biggest bright spots have also been two of their largest injury concerns, as 11 games were missed by leading scorer Thomas Vanek, signed to a one-year “show me” deal this summer, and resurgent goalie Jimmy Howard is on the shelf for the second time already and expected to be out until February. Add in a long, ongoing absence of Darren Helm and off-and-on issues with defenseman Brendan Smith among other injuries, and the Red Wings lead the league with 3,122 minutes missed. Few have pointed to injuries as the main reason for Detroit’s dismal showing, but there’s evidence to express that it may be the primary influence. Backing up the claim are the struggles of the Buffalo Sabres, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets as well, all of whom have suffered noteworthy injuries, but also an excess of depth injuries as well. These four teams are all performing below what was expected of them in 2016-17, and injuries may be the prime source of blame. Only the Edmonton Oilers have bucked the trend, as they have been able to survive numerous serious injuries to their defenseman and are having their best season in recent memory with the second most man-games missed in the entire league.

Aside from the Washington Capitals (who have been impossibly healthy with just 10 games and about 170 minutes missed) and San Jose Sharks at #1 and #2, two teams who seemingly have not had issues with major injuries in recent years, a lack of man-games missed can certainly make a case as a vital ingredient to the success of overachieving teams this season. Rounding out the top five are the Ottawa Senators, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Carolina Hurricanes, all of whom have lost less than 1,000 minutes to injury and all of whom are surely big surprises thus far in 2016-17. No one could have expected the Blue Jackets to hold the NHL’s best record at this point, nobody guessed that the Senators would be contenders in the Atlantic, and many picked the Hurricanes to be the worst team in the league. Even though Ottawa has seen Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone all miss time and Carolina just got Jordan Staal and Elias Lindholm back from injury, the overall roster-wide health is what has kept these teams afloat. All three rosters could easily be exposed by a string of long-term injuries, but they have been able to make it this far without encountering such loss and it has boosted them to the positions they are currently in.

Many teams have had recent success with top-heavy lineups containing a handful of stars and relative no-names as filler (read: Chicago Blackhawks), and there’s no reason to believe that doesn’t work. However, these injury trends seem to show that missing time as a whole due to injury instead of injuries to individual top players is what can derail a team. A team built with depth in mind can combat the loss of two, three, or four starters, but a top-heavy team can struggle to replace one star, nevertheless multiple full-time contributors. The man-games missed to success correlation is an interesting concept for team builders to follow and understand. It’s a risk-reward scenario, and several teams this season are showing the extremes of success and failure as a function of injury.

Minor Transactions: 1/10/17

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In the midst of a four-game losing streak, the Tampa Bay Lightning continue to shake up their roster. After sending Erik Condra and Adam Erne back down to the AHL yesterday, the team has recalled forward Gabriel Dumont from the Syracuse Crunch today. The 26-year-old center is in his first season with Tampa Bay, after signing a deal with the team this summer, but has yet to make his Lightning debut. It is expected that he will get the opportunity to do so when the Bolts return to action on Thursday night against the Buffalo Sabres. Dumont has not played an NHL games since February 2015, and in total has a goal and two assists in 18 NHL games with his former team, his hometown Montreal Canadiens. Dumont has ten points in 19 games for the Crunch so far in 2016-17.

Meanwhile, Tampa also made a move in net, sending down backup Adam Wilcox and replacing him with highly-touted prospect Kristers Gudlevskis. This could signal the end of Andrei Vasilevskiy ’s long run without a rest. Since Ben Bishop went down with injury, Vasilevskiy has started ten games in a row and the Lightning have allowed six goals in three of those last four starts. Wilcox did not make an appearance in his stint with the team, but considering the diminishing returns of Vasilevskiy, it would seem likely that Gudlevskis gets the chance. The young Latvian keeper has made just one NHL appearance per year in three of the past four seasons, missing out on his annual try in 2014-15 and coming in as a late-game replacement earlier this year. Though a small sample size, Gudlevskis has a stunning .959 save percentage and 1.37 goals against average in those few appearances. Though Vasilevskiy is on a three-day break and Bishop appears close to returning (back at practice today), expect Gudlevskis to get a shot while in Tampa and have his first multi-game NHL season.

Update (4pm CT): Forget all of that about Gudlevskis getting to make an appearance on this trip to Tampa. Less than 12 hours after recalling the minor league goalie, the Lightning have returned him to the Syracuse Crunch. This means that the Bolts coaches liked what they saw out of Bishop today and expect the star keeper to be back in action sooner than predicted. Heading back to the AHL with Gudlevskis is defenseman Slater Koekkoek, the 2012 first-rounder who is still trying to carve out a role for himself with the Lightning. Koekkoek has already far surpassed his career high in games with 29 on the season, but has little to show for it with four assists and a -4 rating. He’s continually been shifted in an out of the lineup and has now been demoted to Syracuse for the eighth time this season.

In other moves:

  • The Nashville Predators have promoted forward Pontus Aberg to the NHL squad, as the rookie winger has been nearly a point-per-game player for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals this season. He has already earned nine games with Nashville so far, but has just one goal and one assist to show for it. The Predators hope he can bring his minor league scoring touch to the big leagues and stick around for a longer stint this time around. The 2012 second-round pick has had a strong AHL career, but had not developed a complete enough game for the NHL level until this season, as least in the eyes of GM David Poile. 
  • As speculated yesterday, the Calgary Flames have recalled defenseman Brett Kulak from the Stockton Heat. In a corresponding move, Tyler Wotherspoon is headed back to the AHL. The 23-year-old Kulak has bounced back and forth this season, but has already played in a career-high 15 NHL contests. He has three assists in that span, and a goal and four assists in 11 games with Stockton. Wotherspoon has been held scoreless in four NHL games this season, and has six points in 20 AHL games so far. The 2011 second-round pick has not developed as the Flames would like and has seen his small role somehow decrease over the past few seasons.
  • A day after placing veteran goalie Curtis McElhinney on waivers (and subsequently losing him) and re-calling young Anton Forsberg, the Blue Jackets were forced to promote Joonas Korpisalo today as starter Sergei Bobrovsky is sick and unable to go tonight against the Carolina Hurricanes. Forsberg will start tonight’s game, with Korpisalo as the backup.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have placed forward Derek Grant on waivers. The journeyman center has played in 35 games already with the Sabres, but has only three assists to show for it. A team still looking for their identity, Buffalo is better served playing their own home-grown young talent rather than mediocre veterans, likely promting Grant’s movement.
  • Andrej Nestrasil has cleared waivers and will be assigned to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers, reports Carolina Hurricanes GM Ron Francis. The Hurricanes have been busy on the waiver wire this season, including both claiming and losing Detroit’s Martin Frk and recently adding former St. Louis Blue Ty Rattie. Given Nestrasil’s age and his decent output in each of the last two seasons, as well as the fact that the only other player on waivers, McElhinney, was claimed, Carolina is lucky that this waiver transaction wasn’t yet another newsworthy one.
  • As expected, the Vancouver Canucks have recalled defenseman Andrey Pedan from the Utica Comets of the AHL. With Ben Hutton joing the laundry list of out or injured Canucks blue liners, Pedan can expect an extended stay in Vancouver, which needs all the defensive depth it can get right now.
  • With T.J. Oshie ready to return to the Capitals lineup, Washington has returned forwards Paul Carey and Liam O’Brien to the AHL’s Hershey Bears. While both forwards are having good seasons in the AHL with 25 and 18 points respectively in 28 games apiece, neither has managed to turn minor league success into any NHL production. The duo have combined for four points total in 42 combined games over the past four seasons.

More to come

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