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PHR Originals: 11/25/19 – 12/01/19

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In an otherwise quiet week for news and action, with three different days of three games or less, PHR’s writers stayed busy with some original articles:

Brian La Rose began our annual holiday series “What Your Team Is Thankful For”. Going alphabetically, he took a look at Anaheim, Arizona, and Boston. The league leading Bruins obviously have plenty to be thankful for, but so too do the Coyotes, who currently hold a top-ten record in the NHL. There’s room for improvement in Arizona, but the team has to be happy with how the season has gone thus far. Anaheim however has a hefty wish list this holiday season, needing more out of their young forward corps and a difference-maker on defense. Stay tuned for more write-ups from Brian on the other 28 teams as we march toward 2020.

Sticking with the holiday theme, I outlined the recent trend of the standings at American Thanksgiving being a strong playoff predictor and asked who could be the outlier teams that qualify for the postseason this year after missing the mark on Turkey Day. The readers responded very favorably toward one team in each conference – the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Vegas Golden Knights. If only those two teams turn things around this season, then the current standings already reflect 14 of 16 playoff teams.

Gavin also offered a poll to the readers, asking who might be the early favorite for the Hart Trophy this season as NHL MVP. Gavin detailed the accomplishments to this point in the year of a number of the game’s biggest names, but voters gravitated toward two forwards on ungodly scoring paces. Edmonton’s Connor McDavid already has almost 50 points and is currently on pace for 144 points, while Boston’s David Pastrnak has 24 goals in 26 games and looks poised to score 75+ goals at this rate. However, do the presences of Leon Draisaitl and Brad Marchand also among the league’s top scorers hurt their teammates’ Hart cases? Could the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and John Carlson swoop in as more “valuable” candidates?

In my bi-weekly piece, I took a look at the happenings in college hockey of late. As Hockey East teams continue to underwhelm this year, especially Boston University, other northeast schools have filled the top-ten void in Cornell, Clarkson, and Harvard. Meanwhile, Minnesota may not be a top contender in the Big Ten this year, but added another talented recruit to an impressive incoming class. And college hockey will continue in Alaska, at least for now.

Finally, Gavin hosted his weekly chat, with topics ranging from coaches on the hot seat, the sustainability of upstart teams, and franchise building blocks. The Red Wings, Predators, and Senators received some special attention in yet another great segment.

For all of the original work from PHR’s writers, be sure to keep up with all of the action each and every day!

Jimmy Howard Placed On Injured Reserve

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The Detroit Red Wings have activated Mike Green from injured reserve and is available for this afternoon’s game against the Philadelphia Flyers. The same can’t be said about Jimmy Howard, who has been moved to injured reserve. Head coach Jeff Blashill would only say that Howard is out at least seven days from when he was injured against the Toronto Maple Leafs earlier this week. Jonathan Bernier and Calvin Pickard will be the tandem this afternoon.

Green hasn’t played in ten days since leaving a game against the Ottawa Senators, and hasn’t been quite his effective self this season. In 19 games he has just four points, only two of which have come at even-strength. The 34-year old is still averaging more than 21 minutes, but that is more an indictment of the rest of the Red Wings’ defenders than it is a celebration of his play.

If he can get back to full health and show a glimpse of his former self however, there’s a good bet that Green’s name will start coming up in trade speculation as the season continues. The veteran right-handed defenseman is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year and though he currently holds a full no-trade clause, it will change into a 10-team no-trade list on February, 2020.

Minor Transactions: 11/29/19

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If you weren’t satisfied with the afternoon football action yesterday, the NHL has a treat for you. The league gets an early start when the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins clash this afternoon, while eight other games also get early starts. In that first game of the day, the Rangers will try to somehow contain one of the league’s best lines and slow down David Pastrnak, who has six goals in his last five games.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have sent Martin Marincin to the minor leagues, where he’ll play against the Rochester Americans tonight. The Maple Leafs are in Buffalo to take on the Sabres and weren’t going to use Marincin, meaning he can get in some game action for the AHL Marlies instead.
  • With Steven Stamkos returning today after a short absence, the Tampa Bay Lightning have sent Cory Conacher to the minor leagues. Scott Wedgewood is up in his place, giving the team three goaltenders for the time being.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes have recalled Clark Bishop, despite the 23-year old forward earning just three points in 19 games for the Charlotte Checkers this season. Bishop certainly isn’t known for his offensive chops and won’t be asked to play in that role for the Hurricanes, if he gets into a game at all.
  • Brett Seney has been sent to the minor leagues by the New Jersey Devils, who played in two games with the team during his recall. The 23-year old Seney has 18 points in 19 games for the Binghamton Devils this year after spending most of 2018-19 with New Jersey.
  • Joseph Blandisi has been recalled by the Pittsburgh Penguins ahead of their game this evening against the Columbus Blue Jackets. Blandisi has been up and down all season, splitting time in the NHL and AHL.
  • The Montreal Canadiens have recalled Gustav Olofsson, placing Paul Byron on injured reserve to make room. Olofsson’s addition gives the team eight defensemen on the roster with Christian Folin still on his conditioning stint in the AHL.

Poll: Which Teams Will Buck The Thanksgiving Playoff Trend In 2019-20?

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Just how important is playoff position in just the second month of the regular season? Very, if you look at recent results. Over the past six years, more than 70% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving have held on to their spot. While last year was slightly below the mark – 11 of 16 teams (69%) in a playoff position on November 22 qualified – the standings at the time were even more predictive than usual. The Lightning, Predators, Flames, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Sharks all finished in the same divisional seed that they occupied at Thanksgiving.

So who were the outliers in 2018-19? Obviously, the St. Louis Blues’ return from the basement of the league standings to win the Stanley Cup is a story that will stand the test of time. However, four other clubs also turned their seasons around: the Islanders, Penguins, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights. And the teams whose seasons took a turn for the worse: the Sabres, Wild, Rangers, Canadiens, and Ducks. Ironically, the Canadiens were narrowly inside the playoff window on Thanksgiving and ended up just barely outside in the spring. Meanwhile, the Ducks, Oilers, and Coyotes were all tied for the lowest playoff-qualifying record on Thanksgiving, with the Ducks getting the tiebreaker at the time, and all three failed to qualify for the postseason.

This season has gotten off to an unpredictable start, which could potentially threaten to derail the Thanksgiving trend. Several teams considered Cup contenders are currently outside the playoff picture, while multiple surprises currently occupy a spot. With Thanksgiving arriving tomorrow, this is the current status of the NHL standings (reminder – points percentage is the ideal way of viewing NHL standings):

Eastern Conference

M1 New York Islanders (.773)
A1 Boston Bruins (.771)

M2 Washington Capitals (.740)
M3 Carolina Hurricanes (.646)

A2 Tampa Bay Lightning (.619)
A3 Florida Panthers (.604)

W1 Pittsburgh Penguins (.625)
W2 Philadelphia Flyers (.604)

Outside the Playoff Picture: Montreal Canadiens (.563), New York Rangers (.545), Columbus Blue Jackets (.522), Buffalo Sabres (.521), Toronto Maple Leafs (.520), Ottawa Senators (.479), New Jersey Devils (.435), Detroit Red Wings (.327)

Western Conference

C1 St. Louis Blues (.680)
P1 Edmonton Oilers (.673)

C2 Dallas Stars (.615)
C3 Colorado Avalanche (.609)

P2 Arizona Coyotes (.620)
P3 Vancouver Canucks (.560)

W1 Winnipeg Jets (.604)
W2 Nashville Predators (.543)

Outside the Playoff Picture: San Jose Sharks (.540), Chicago Blackhawks (.521), Anaheim Ducks (.500), Vegas Golden Knights (.500), Calgary Flames (.481), Minnesota Wild (.480), Los Angeles Kings (.417)

2018-19 playoff teams jump off the page as potential candidates to disrupt the status quo. Particularly in the Pacific Division, it is hard to image none of the Golden Knights – who beat the Thanksgiving odds last year – the Sharks or the Flames will make the playoffs, especially as they look up at the Oilers, Coyotes, and Canucks.  There could also be hope in West for the Ducks and Blackhawks, who sit at .500 currently. Over in the East, the Maple Leafs stick out like a sore thumb among non-playoff teams and could be line for improvement following their coaching change. But will it be enough given their difficult start? The Canadiens will also hope for a reverse of fortunes from last year, going from first team out in the conference at Thanksgiving to in the postseason come April. The Sabres have started hot and collapsed two years in a row, but there is still time for them to turn things back around. All three Atlantic clubs see a Panthers team with plenty of problems ahead of them in the standings right now. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Blue Jackets will look to make an unlikely run to the postseason as they chase down the Flyers.

What do you think? Which of these teams will find their way into the playoff picture and which will fall victim to the Thanksgiving postseason trend? Select as many teams below as you like, but remember that for every addition, there has to be a subtraction of a current playoff team.

Which Teams Will Buck The Thanksgiving Playoff Trend?
Maple Leafs 21.12% (279 votes)
Golden Knights 19.08% (252 votes)
Sharks 10.14% (134 votes)
Blackhawks 8.55% (113 votes)
Rangers 8.02% (106 votes)
Canadiens 6.13% (81 votes)
Sabres 5.75% (76 votes)
Flames 5.75% (76 votes)
Kings 3.71% (49 votes)
Blue Jackets 3.26% (43 votes)
Wild 2.57% (34 votes)
Devils 1.89% (25 votes)
Ducks 1.67% (22 votes)
Red Wings 1.67% (22 votes)
Senators 0.68% (9 votes)
Total Votes: 1,321

[Mobile users click here to vote]

Overseas Notes: Bailey, Rasanen, Hiller

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Casey Bailey has certainly had a whirlwind start to the 2019-20 season. The former Penn State standout joined the Washington Capitals in training camp and later their farm team, the Hershey Bears, but failed to land a contract with either club. He signed with the ECHL’s South Carolina Stingrays in October and was loaned to the AHL’s Charlotte Checkers earlier this month. After performing well with both teams, it seems Bailey was able to parlay his success into another contract. The Vaxjo Lakers of the SHL have announced that they have signed Bailey to a contract for the remainder of the season. While this is Bailey’s first foray into Swedish hockey, it marks a return to Europe for the 28-year-old, who spent last year with the KHL’s Slovan Bratislava. A two-way right wing with NHL experience, Bailey has never reached the potential he flashed while a member of the Nittany Lions, but brings size, speed, and a track record of strong numbers in the AHL to Vaxjo. Bailey could emerge as a top contributor for the Lakers, who count talented but inexperienced NHL prospects Emil Pettersson (ARI), Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson (BOS), and Marcus Davidsson (BUF) among their best players.

  • Eemeli Rasanen is making an unexpected trip to Denmark for the next month. In a move rarely seen, especially with NHL prospects, the KHL’s Jokerit has loaned Rasanen to the Frederikshavn White Hawks of Norway’s Metal Ligaen, the team announced. It is quite the demotion for the 20-year-old defenseman, a 2017 second-round pick of the Toronto Maple Leafs who spent a brief stint in the AHL last year. Fortunately, it is just for a month, as the loan agreement expires after Christmas. Jokerit undoubtedly will make some money off of this deal, but also likely hopes that it jumpstarts Rasanen. The big blue liner has split his season to this point between the KHL and minor league Mestis, failing to make much of an impact at either level. He will have a major advantage over the competition in Denmark though, where he hopes to re-discover his game.
  • Former NHL keeper Jonas Hiller is currently playing the final season of a long, successful career. Or is he? The starting goalie for the NLA’s EHC Biel-Bienne is dominating the Swiss ranks at the ripe old age of 37, calling into question whether he is really done. Hiller holds a .933 save percentage and 2.03 GAA through 19 games, the best numbers of his career at any pro level. He leads the NLA in both categories as well. Nicola Berger of NZZ Sport writes that Biel-Bienne is trying to convince Hiller not to retire while he is still at the top of his game. The team does not want to suffer a major drop-off in performance in net, so much so that Berger indicates that they could try to poach New Jersey Devils goaltender Cory Schneider if Hiller follows through on his departure. While Hiller has entertained the idea of continuing to play when approached by the media, Berger writes that he would be happy to go out on top, not wanting poor play to instead force his hand. While Hiller’s days in the NHL are undoubtedly over, his continued dominance in Switzerland at his age remains an entertaining story to follow.

Alexander Kerfoot Suspended Two Games

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The Department of Player Safety has handed out another punishment, this time to Toronto Maple Leafs forward Alexander Kerfoot. Kerfoot has been suspended two games for boarding Colorado Avalanche defenseman Erik Johnson on Saturday night. As the accompanying video explains:

It is important to note that Kerfoot is entirely in control of this play. From the moment he hits the hashmarks, Kerfoot sees nothing but Johnson’s numbers. This is not a case of a player turning his back immediately prior to contact in a way that turns a legal hit into an illegal one. Further, while the shove itself was not delivered with exceptional force, it was also not a case where a player puts his hands on the back to guide, direct or engage the puck carrier.

Kerfoot, for what it is worth, immediately expressed regret for the play, telling reporters including Kristen Shilton of TSN that he is “disappointed” in himself. The 25-year old of course played with Johnson for the first two seasons of his NHL career before an offseason trade brought him to Toronto. He has also never been fined or suspended in that short career, helping to keep the punishment to a manageable number.

The Maple Leafs are still without Mitch Marner and Trevor Moore up front, but do still have some options with Dmytro Timashov and Nic Petan for their games this week. Kerfoot, who was just coming off an injury of his own, will be eligible to return on Saturday night against the Buffalo Sabres.

Minor Transactions: 11/25/19

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A new week is upon us in the NHL and nine games will kick things off tonight. That schedule includes the struggling Calgary Flames heading to Pittsburgh to try and get another win to slow the bleeding, while the super-hot Dallas Stars welcome the Vegas Golden Knights into their arena. With plenty of action on the schedule we’ll keep track of all the minor moves teams make to prepare.

  • The Chicago Blackhawks have recalled Matthew Highmore from the minor leagues, his first opportunity at the NHL level since the 2017-18 season. That year Highmore played in 13 games for the Blackhawks and scored two goals, but missed most of last season with a shoulder injury.
  • Riley Stillman has been sent back to the AHL by the Florida Panthers, while the team takes a few days off. Florida doesn’t play again until Wednesday, when they will try to stop their short two-game losing streak in its tracks.
  • After just a couple of days in the minors for cap reasons, Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee have been recalled by the Philadelphia Flyers. Both players were in the lineup when the Flyers took on the Calgary Flames on Saturday and were sent down just to bank some cap space on the off day.
  • The Buffalo Sabres have recalled Jean-Sebastien Dea from the AHL, giving them another option with Evan Rodrigues unavailable for tonight. While Dea gives the Sabres a fine option, the team is really testing their organizational depth with all the recent injuries.
  • Daniel Carr has been recalled by the Nashville Predators, a little more than a month after he cleared waivers and was sent down. Carr absolutely tore up the AHL during that time, posting 21 points in 16 games. The 28-year old is an elite AHL offensive weapon, but has just 103 NHL games under his belt.
  • Jack Studnicka and Brendan Gaunce have both been recalled by the Boston Bruins. The team will not have Patrice Bergeron, Brett Ritchie or Par Lindholm for their two-game road trip that starts tomorrow in Montreal.
  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled Michael Hutchinson, sending Kasimir Kaskisuo back to the minor leagues. The backup goaltender usage under new head coach Sheldon Keefe isn’t clear, but the Maple Leafs do have a back-to-back situation coming up this weekend.

Toronto’s Kerfoot To Have Hearing For Hit On Avs’ Johnson

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The Toronto Maple Leafs’ Alexander Kerfoot will have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Monday for his hit on Colorado’s Erik Johnson, according to TSN’s Darren Dreger.

The incident occurred during the second period of Saturday’s game in which Kerfoot hit Johnson in the back, which propelled Johnson into the boards head first (video here). Johnson, however, stayed in the game and Kerfoot received a two-minute minor for boarding.

Kerfoot has never been in trouble with the Department of Player Safety.

 

Negotiation Notes: Backstrom, Markstrom, Babcock

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Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman had plenty to say on last night’s edition of “Saturday Headlines”, but none more important that news on negotiations between the Washington Capitals and star center Nicklas Backstrom. Despite his age, the 32-year-old Backstrom will be one of, if not the top player available should he hit the free agent market this coming summer. One of the top players in Capitals history, Backstrom is the epitome of consistency as a reliable 70+ point threat every year and he has shown no signs of slowing down. Washington previously stated that they would be patient with contract talks with both Backstrom and starting goalie Braden Holtby, but Friedman reports that negotiations are officially underway with Backstrom at least. On top of that, Backstrom has also elected not to use an agent for these extension talks, which could be a good indication that he is concerned more with staying in Washington than he is maximizing he free agency value. Backstrom showed a willingness to take term over money on his last deal – a ten-year, $67MM pact signed before the current eight-year limit was implemented – and he could do so again. While he won’t get a max-term offer, much less another decade deal from Washington, Backstrom also knows that he can command more than his previous $6.7MM cap hit. However, in terms of the current landscape of NHL contracts, it is very possible that Backstrom still opts to take a hometown discount to stay with the Caps that pays him below market value over a significant term, ensuring that he can stay and likely finish out his career in Washington.

  • Jacob Markstrom and the Vancouver Canucks have yet to formally begin contract extension talks, as the impending free agent goaltender has had personal issues to deal with early this season, but Friedman reports that those discussions are expected to “intensify” over the coming weeks. He believes that the Canucks, despite their depth in promising goalie prospects like Thatcher Demko and Michael DiPietro, still hope and plan on bringing Markstrom back. The team will have to make a significant commitment to do so, as the 29-year-old should draw considerable interest if he hits the open market this summer. Among impending UFA goalies, Markstrom is second only to Holtby right now in games played, with the next closest being geriatric options like Craig Anderson and Mike Smith. This is not to say that Holtby and Markstrom will be the only two keepers viewed as potential starters this summer, but he is one of a small group who can back up a claim of being an established NHL workhorse starter. Markstrom is also in the top five among potential free agent stoppers with at least ten games played in save percentage and goals against average. With relative youth and solid numbers on his side, Markstrom is easily looking at an improvement to his current three-year, $11MM contract, whether that offer comes from Vancouver or elsewhere.
  • As for a current free agent, recently-fired Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, Friedman warns not to get hopes up for a quick re-location. He states that “informal feelers” have already been sent out by teams and media members alike to see where Babcock’s head is at with regards to coaching again this season. There will likely be some more coaching vacancies down the road in 2019-20 and clubs will certainly be interested in at least talking to Babcock. However, Friedman has inferred from the results of those conversations that the coach is planning to take some time off before jumping into a new gig. Those closest to Babcock do not believe that he will coach again this season. It’s worth noting as well that Babcock is still under contract with Toronto, having only been relieved of his coaching duties for now, meaning all interested teams will first have to seek permission to interview the veteran bench boss.

Eastern Notes: Cooper, Sabourin, Atkinson

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With the recent firing of Toronto Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock, many eyes have turned to the Tampa Bay Lightning who are also struggling in the Atlantic Division. The Lightning are currently in seventh place, even behind the Ottawa Senators. They are only ahead of the Detroit Red Wings.

Regardless, in his most recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required) suggests that while Toronto general manager Kyle Dubas didn’t hire Babcock in Toronto, that isn’t the case in Tampa Bay, where Julien BriseBois did hire Cooper to be his AHL coach years ago and now the team’s NHL coach. The two have a long-standing relationship and won an AHL championship together, much like the relationship between Dubas and newly promoted head coach Sheldon Keefe.

The scribe writes that because of the long-standing relationship between BriseBois and Cooper, a poor start to the season won’t change things.

  • The Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch reports that Ottawa Senators forward Scott Sabourin returned to the ice Saturday for an informal skills development session, but there is still no timetable for his return. Sabourin suffered a concussion, broken nose and an ugly cut near his eye when he was knocked out in a significant collision with David Backes on Nov. 2. Garrioch writes that Sabourin isn’t expected to return to the lineup anytime soon, but he has been skating on his own recently.
  • The Athletic’s Aaron Portzine (subscription required) gives first quarter grades out for the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division with a 9-8-4 record. While the scribe has lots of praise for some of the young players and goaltenders, the veterans weren’t as lucky. He is quick to criticize the play of Cam Atkinson, who has struggled offensively with just four goals and 13 points this season. Atkinson, however, is known to be a streaky scorer, so the veteran could find a way to bounce back and return as one of the team’s top scorers. However, Atkinson would likely have given himself a worse grade as he admitted that he is “embarrassed” by his recent play.

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