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Poll: How Many Top 50 Free Agents Will Opt For Retirement?

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A week into free agency, the vast majority of PHR’s Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents are under contract. Unsurprisingly, many of those left unsigned are on the wrong side of 30 or even at or approaching 40. Veterans tend to be later additions in free agency, as teams aren’t rushing to sign them to long-term deals to be core pieces, but rather seek to use them to plug holes in the lineup after the fact. As of now, there are nine names in the Top 50 that are legitimate candidates for retirement. Some have offers on the table and are taking their time to make a decision, while other may not have much of a market and could have to choose between a PTO or calling it a career. How many will choose retirement this summer?

Justin Williams, 37, enjoyed a tremendous 53-point season with the Carolina Hurricanes this past season and looked far from done. GM Don Waddell hinted that the captain will return next season, but until pen meets paper it remains a question mark. Williams was a key piece of the Hurricanes’ run to the Eastern Conference Final last season and would be a major loss for the team. However, he could opt to go out on top as a player who has seen very little drop-off in production through his 30’s and hit his highest point total since 2011-12 last season. Williams can still play, but the question is whether he wants to.

Joe Thornton, 40, not only wants to play next season, but wants to play several more years. The future Hall of Famer has already had an illustrious career, but has yet to win that elusive Stanley Cup. Thornton would like to return to the San Jose Sharks, one of only two teams he’s played for in his 21-year career, and the Sharks should be able to find the space to bring him back after moving out salary via trade and free agency departures. However, Thornton’s asking price will play a part – he did top 50 points again last season – as will the Sharks’ interest in bringing back another retirement threat. Patrick Marleau, 39, left San Jose two years ago to join the Toronto Maple Leafs, but has since been bought out and all signs point to a desire to return to the Sharks. These two legendary Sharks are both capable of continuing their NHL careers, but can San Jose fit them both and are either willing to sign elsewhere at this point in their careers?

Brian Boyle, 34, enjoyed one of his best seasons in 2018-19 and netted a second-round pick at the trade deadline. He clearly still has value as a big, smart two-way forward, but the lack of attention he has garnered thus far in free agency is curious. Boyle did not make as much of an impact in Nashville post-trade as he did in New Jersey and teams may be skeptical of his production moving forward. Between a cold market and recent health concerns, Boyle may be considering calling it a career while he’s still considered an elite defensive forward. However, it would be a surprise if there isn’t a team in the NHL who could still use Boyle’s ability.

Dion Phaneuf, 34, is fresh off of a buyout and should be available at a bargain rate as he continues to cash paychecks from the Los Angeles Kings. Phaneuf stated earlier this off-season that he would be happy to land with a contender, but is also open to taking on a mentor role with a young team. That would seemingly make him a candidate to join a number of D-needy teams. Yet, a week into free agency there has been almost no noise surrounding Phaneuf. The veteran still plays a strong checking game, but his offense and mobility fell off a cliff last season, resulting in drastic career lows in production and ice time. Teams may be hesitant to invest at his current asking price. Phaneuf may be looking at a decision between a short-term, minimum deal or walking away.

Ben Lovejoy, 35, is also coming off an uninspiring season. The Dallas Stars still felt he was worth a deadline gamble, but Lovejoy failed to make much of an impact offensively with either the Stars or Devils pre-trade. An experienced journeyman defenseman, Lovejoy still plays a strong defensive game and has great awareness in his own zone. However, when it comes to moving the puck he can be prone to turnovers and when asked to contribute offensively, he offers little. At this point in his career, Lovejoy is an ideal No. 7 or 8 defenseman. However, does he want to continue his playing career only to be used sparingly as a depth player? That’s the question.

Thomas Vanek, 35, is a tricky case. While his 36 points this season marked a career low, it also came in just 64 games and was one of the top marks for the Detroit Red Wings. Vanek has been a tough player to get a read on in recent years because he has moved around so much and played in a variety of roles. The eye test, combined with a plethora of rumors so far this summer, suggest that he can keep playing. But does a decorated veteran really want to continue being a hired gun and deadline deal year after year? If Vanek can find some security in a short-term contract, he will stick around in the NHL and likely continue to be a great value as a player capable of 50 points. However, the respected veteran may also be ready to call it a career if the right fit doesn’t exist.

Niklas Kronwall, 38, and Deryk Engelland, 37, are both in the same boat. They will either return to their current teams – the Red Wings and Golden Knights respectively – or they’ll retire. Neither is looking to move at this point in their careers, nor can they command salaries that their teams cannot pay. Instead, the duo are both valued for their leadership and loyalty and can still play well enough in a regular role or, more likely, thrive in a depth role. The question for both is simply how much they have left in the tank and whether it’s time to quit while they’re ahead.

So what do you think? Nine players, all with good reason to retire but also to keep playing, with various market factors at work. How many suit up in the NHL next season and how many make a final announcement in the coming weeks?

One Team Wanted To Sign Mitch Marner To A Max-Term Offer Sheet

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With one team having already gone the offer sheet route, there has been plenty of speculation surrounding whether or not another one will be tendered to one of the remaining prominent restricted free agents this summer.  It appears that teams are at least sniffing around on Maple Leafs winger Mitch Marner.  In an appearance on 630 CHED (audio link), Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman noted that a team wanted to sign him to an offer sheet but they were looking for a max-term contract (seven years), something Marner’s camp is unwilling to do at this time.  Instead, he’s believed to be seeking a shorter-term pact to get him to unrestricted free agency quicker and allow him to sign a longer-term deal when the salary cap is even higher.

Toronto Maple Leafs Sign Ceci, Kerfoot

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After making some changes on July 1 in the form of trades, the Toronto Maple Leafs found themselves with another pair of restricted free agents to sign. It didn’t take long to work out new contracts though, as today the Maple Leafs announced new deals for both Alexander Kerfoot and Cody Ceci. Kerfoot’s four-year contract will be for a total of $14MM, while Ceci’s should come in at just one-year, $4.5MM. Both will be unrestricted free agents when the deals expire.

Kerfoot, 24, was acquired in a deal along with Tyson Barrie that saw long-time Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri head to the Colorado Avalanche. The young forward is coming off consecutive seasons with at least 42 points after signing as a free agent out of Harvard in 2017. Kerfoot decided not to sign with the team that drafted him 15oth overall in 2012, turning down any offer the New Jersey Devils made.

A great skater, Kerfoot does most of his damage from in tight after getting behind the defense or finding loose pucks around the net. Though he isn’t the bruising, physical winger that many have pined for in Toronto, he does bring more skill to a lineup designed by GM Kyle Dubas to rely on it. He also brings some much needed versatility, able to play both center and left wing when called upon. The Maple Leafs did sign Jason Spezza and Nick Shore on the first day of free agency, but it’s tough to see either of them in a full-time third-line center role at this point in their careers. At a $3.5MM cap hit, Kerfoot could be a reasonable option in the middle behind Auston Matthews and John Tavares.

Ceci, 26, will get a chance to prove that he can excel in reduced minutes in Toronto. The right-handed defenseman was often asked to take on the opponents best when he was with the Ottawa Senators, usually to disappointing results. Though armed with all the physical skills needed to be an elite player in the NHL, Ceci still hasn’t been able to put everything together and become that true top-pairing defenseman. He is however coming off a 26-point season with the Senators and is some much-needed depth on the right side for Toronto after they let Ron Hainsey leave and traded Nikita Zaitsev.

The question now though is how the Maple Leafs will afford to fit their other restricted free agent into the fold. Mitch Marner is still unsigned and Toronto’s cap situation is getting crowded once again. They currently project to have just $3.76MM in cap space for next season, though they will be able to move Nathan Horton’s $5.3MM hit onto long-term injured reserve. They could also potentially do that with both Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott at the beginning of the season, though both players are expected back before long. The Maple Leafs do have an advantage with the proximity of their minor league club, allowing them to play home games with a reduced roster in order to bank cap space, but either way it is going to be quite the dance to get everyone in this season. In fact, there very well might be some additional moves required before the start of the year depending on where Marner’s final number ends up.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Snapshots: Panarin, McGinn, Greening

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It was hard to miss Artemi Panarin’s free agency decision on Monday, as an all-world player landed in the largest market in North America. However, what wasn’t clear right away was how Panarin’s new seven-year, $81.5MM contract with the New York Rangers was structured. CapFriendly has cleared that up, revealing the terms of the monster deal. To no surprise, the details continue to favor the star forward. While Panarin’s contract carries an $11.643MM cap hit, he will in fact make a salary of just $1MM each year. What this means is that Panarin’s deal includes nearly $75MM in signing bonuses, making the contract virtually buyout-proof. The bonuses role out in descending order, beginning with a $13MM bonus this season down to a $7MM bonus in 2025-26. Also unsurprisingly, Panarin’s deal includes a full No-Movement Clause. The investment in the 27-year-old Panarin, who has topped 70 points in each of his four NHL seasons, is pretty safe, which is lucky for the Rangers since is contract is all but immovable.

  • The deadline to file for salary arbitration is coming up, and the first name to file has been revealed. Speaking with media, including the Raleigh News & Observer’s Chip Alexander, Carolina Hurricanes GM Don Waddell noted that forward Brock McGinn has filed for arbitration. McGinn, 25, has emerged as a regular contributor for the ’Canes over the past two years, missing only two games and posting back-to-back seasons of 25+ points. He additionally contributed six points in 15 playoff games during the run to the Eastern Conference Final this year. McGinn is also one of Carolina’s most physical forwards and plays a role on the penalty kill. Yet, his ice time is still somewhat limited, particularly playing sheltered minutes to do some turnover tendencies. The Hurricanes will try to support their filing number by pointing out McGinn’s relatively minor role and lack of overall career results, while the player side will emphasize the recent climb in scoring and ice time and his platform year being arguably his best season to date and coinciding in a return to the postseason for Carolina. Waddell, who recently joked that the Sebastian Aho offer sheet had freed up his summer due to a lack of contract negotiations, is not out of the woods yet, with McGinn filing, Trevor Carrick, Anton Forsberg, and Saku Maenalanen eligible to file, and several other restricted free agents in need of extensions.
  • Veteran forward Colin Greening has called it a career reports Toronto Marlies reporter Jacob Stoller. Although Greening has played solely for the Marlies over the past three seasons, he logged close to 300 NHL games with the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs, including a 37-point season in 2011-12. Greening’s NHL production certainly declined as his career went on, but as he transitioned to a minor league leadership role, Greening ended up being both a reliable source of scoring and a key locker room presence. Greening will likely be remembered most for captaining the Marlies to the 2018 Calder Cup, as well as his dominant college career at Cornell University.

Toronto Maple Leafs Acquire Tyson Barrie

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The Toronto Maple Leafs have acquired Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot and a 2020 sixth-round pick from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Nazem Kadri, Calle Rosen and a 2020 third-round selection. The Avalanche will also be retaining 50% of Barrie’s contract, which results in the Maple Leafs only being responsible for a $2.75MM cap hit for the offensive defenseman.

For some time now the Maple Leafs have been looking for an upgrade on the right side of their blue line, and will get it in Barrie who is coming off another incredible offensive season. The 27-year old had 14 goals and 59 points for the Avalanche and has been one of the league’s top puck-movers since entering the league back in 2011-12. Through 484 career games, Barrie has 307 points and could form a solid one-two punch with Morgan Rielly who is also coming off a career-best 72-point season. The team now projects to have a brand new right side with Barrie joining Cody Ceci who was acquired from the Ottawa Senators earlier today.

The Leafs have actually cleared even more cap space with this deal for the time being, as Kadri had three years left on his contract and carried a $4.5MM hit. That may change quickly however as Kerfoot is a restricted free agent coming off consecutive 40+ point seasons after signing out of Harvard University. The 24-year old decided not to join the New Jersey Devils who originally drafted him and instead went to Colorado where he has enjoyed a healthy opportunity playing both center and wing. Kerfoot has recorded 31 of his 85 career points on the powerplay, but may not get quite the same chance to touch the puck in Toronto with the man advantage given their glut of talented forwards.

For Colorado, this deal is all about securing a legitimate second-line center to play behind Nathan MacKinnon. Though Kadri was limited to just 16 goals and 44 points last season with the Maple Leafs that was more about opportunity and usage than talent. The seventh-overall pick from 2009 had consecutive 32-goal seasons prior to Toronto’s signing of John Tavares which bumped him down in the lineup, and he should get close to that again if given the chance in Colorado. The fact that he is cost-controlled for three more seasons at a more than reasonable $4.5MM makes him an extremely valuable piece for the Avalanche who have added a fair amount of scoring prowess in the last few days.

The biggest reason Barrie was even available is the way the Avalanche have built out their blue line, with names like Cale Makar, Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins all looking like they will be real contributors next season. The Maple Leafs meanwhile will hope that they can maintain some level of depth down the middle with the signings they made today, adding Jason Spezza and Nick Shore to the mix. William Nylander and Kerfoot also have experience at center, while Auston Matthews and John Tavares will obviously dominate the playing time and matchups.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Toronto Maple Leafs Add Kevin Gravel

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The Maple Leafs are in the market for affordable and effective depth additions and have already made several today. Add another to the list in veteran defenseman Kevin Gravel. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that Gravel will sign a one-year, one-way $700K contract with Toronto, where he could fight for a starting role on a unit going through a major overhaul.

The Maple Leafs blue line will look almost completely different next season, with only Morgan Rielly, Jake Muzzin and Travis Dermott returning from the regular group. Even Dermott likely won’t be healthy enough to contribute for the first month of the season, leaving plenty of room to compete for playing time. With newcomers Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci likely locked into spots on the right side, the bottom pairing is up for grabs at the moment in a competition between Gravel, Ben Harpur, Martin Marincin and Justin Holl, none of whom should be considered completely out of the fight.

The 27-year old Gravel played 36 games for the Edmonton Oilers last season, but recorded just three points in a limited role. In 106 NHL games, mostly with the Los Angeles Kings, Gravel has been a very low-impact player, quietly soaking up between 12-15 minutes a night with very little happening. That might be exactly what the Leafs are after from a 6-7 defenseman, though there certainly isn’t a lot of upside to be found.

Maple Leafs Agree To Terms With Cody Ceci

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It hasn’t taken long for the Maple Leafs to work out a contract for new acquisition Cody Ceci.  TSN’s Darren Dreger reports (Twitter link) that defenseman has verbally agreed to a one-year, $4.5MM contract with Toronto.

Ceci was officially acquired earlier today as part of a six-player swap that sent blueliner Nikita Zaitsev and winger Connor Brown to the Senators as the other notable players in the trade.  Interestingly enough, this contract matches what Zaitsev’s AAV is, meaning that the cap savings from the trade basically amounts to the different between Brown’s contract and that of Ben Harpur’s (a difference of $1.375MM).  Of course, Zaitsev has four years left on his deal after 2019-20 while Ceci will be eligible for unrestricted free agency at that time.

Ceci earns a small $200K raise on his contract from last season and will hope that a new team will bolster his market value.  He was miscast as a top-pairing option with the Senators due to their limited defensive depth and he was exposed in that role.  With the Maple Leafs, he shouldn’t be counted on to log as much ice time which could make him a better fit for them.

Next season will serve as an audition for the 25-year-old.  A good showing with Toronto could help him earn a long-term contract with them or really bolster his case on the open market.  However, if he struggles again, his value is going to take a dip as he’ll no longer have arbitration eligibility to help inflate his contract (where ice time is a large consideration).  Needless to say, 2019-20 will be a critical season for Ceci.

Maple Leafs Sign Jason Spezza, Nick Shore

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The Maple Leafs have signed a pair of centers, inking veteran Jason Spezza to a one-year deal worth the league minimum of $700K and Nick Shore to a one-year deal worth $750K according to James Mirtle of The Athletic.

The Toronto native has seen his offensive output drop considerably over the last couple of seasons.  He had just eight goals last season (for the second straight year) with Dallas and averaged only 13:16 of playing time per game, hardly a great return on a $7.5MM AAV.

However, Spezza’s skills at the faceoff dot certainly haven’t eroded as he once again was well above the 50% mark, something that has been the case in every season.  His 58.2% success rate last season was actually a career-high and would have ranked first among Toronto regulars down the middle.

It’s likely that he’ll be deployed in a bottom-six role with the Leafs as they look to reshape their group of depth forwards.  While that doesn’t bode well for him turning things around offensively, he’ll give them a lot more stability than they’ve had from their depth centers in recent seasons.  Spezza ranked 36th on our Top 50 UFA Rankings where we predicted a one-year deal to Toronto.

Toronto Maple Leafs Trade Nikita Zaitsev

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The Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators have finalized a trade that will see Nikita Zaitsev and Cody Ceci swap teams. The Maple Leafs will send Zaitsev, Connor Brown and Michael Carcone to the Senators in exchange for Ceci, Ben Harpur, Aaron Luchuk and a 2020 third-round draft pick (originally from Columbus). The trade had to wait until today so that Toronto could pay out Zaitsev’s $3MM signing bonus, though technically that also meant he needed to waive the partial no-trade clause that has kicked in.

Zaitsev, 27, has five years left on his current contract and carries a $4.5MM cap hit, something the Maple Leafs needed to get out from under as they continue to work on an extension for restricted free agent Mitch Marner. The Russian defenseman signed a long-term deal with the club after an excellent rookie season in 2017 but saw his offensive numbers regress drastically as head coach Mike Babcock used him more and more in a shutdown role. That role never seemed like a perfect fit for the smooth-skating Zaitsev, who is used much more offensively at the international level with the Russian national team.

A capable penalty killer, he immediately becomes the Senators’ most expensive defenseman and reunites with former Maple Leafs assistant coach D.J. Smith who is now the boss in Ottawa. Zaitsev will likely be leaned on heavily for the Senators, who have plenty of inexperience on their blue line at the moment.

If not for this trade Ceci, 25, would have become the highest paid defender for the Senators as he was a year ago. Sitting currently as a restricted free agent he does have the option to file for salary arbitration but could also just elect to accept his $4.3MM qualifying offer. That may be the more prudent decision in this case, as heading to arbitration likely gives the Maple Leafs a chance to walk away from the decision altogether. It’s not clear what Toronto’s plans for Ceci are at this point.

Of the other pieces in the deal, Brown is clearly the most valuable. The bottom-six forward is heading into the final year of his current contract that carries a $2.1MM cap hit but is a useful player that can contribute in various situations. A 20-goal scorer as a rookie in 2016-17, the last two seasons have seen his goal totals drop dramatically as more talent was brought into the Toronto lineup. The sixth-round pick eventually found himself suiting up most nights on the fourth line, though he was still a favorite of Babcock’s on the penalty kill. The 25-year old will likely receive a bigger opportunity in Ottawa and could set himself up for another solid contract next summer with some improved offensive numbers.

Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion released a statement on his newest players:

“We’re bringing in highly competitive players that we like as long-term fits for our team. Both are the type of true professionals who match with the culture we want to put in place here in Ottawa,. Nikita is a physical right-shot defenceman who defends hard, fills lanes and blocks shots. Connor has scored 20 goals in the league and is excellent on the forecheck and the penalty kill. We feel both players will add to our depth and fit well within the structure we want our team to play.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

UFA Notes: Pickard, Agostino, Leier, Speculation

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There’s a goalie competition coming to Detroit. TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports that free agent goalie Calvin Pickard is poised to sign a two-year deal with the Red Wings when the market opens tomorrow. As Seravalli notes, that will pit him against Jonathan Bernier for the backup role behind Jimmy Howard. With Howard, 35, signed through just next year but both Bernier and soon Pickard signed for two more years, the time share in net next season in Detroit could be fascinating. Not only could the two veteran goalies battle to be Howard’s understudy next season, but they could be in line to replace him a season later. Neither keeper found much success in 2018-19. Bernier, who some expected to beat out Howard for the starting job, instead posted the worst numbers of his career – a .904 save percentage and 3.16 GAA – in 35 appearances. Pickard fared even worse, allowing an .875 save percentage and 3.86 GAA in a season split between the Philadelphia Flyers and Arizona Coyotes. Pickard’s advantage in the battle though will be his price point, expected to be low after a down year, compared to Bernier’s $3MM mark.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs are lacking the cap space to do much of anything other than adding affordable depth pieces. Adrian Dater of Colorado Hockey Now reports that one such deal is already done. Former AHL MVP Kenny Agostino is expected to sign a two-year, one-way contract with the Leafs, though Dater does not provide any salary details. Agostino, 27, finally got a full-time look in the NHL last season, playing in 63 games with the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils. Agostino recorded 24 points on the year, a mark that Toronto would be very happy with if the winger comes in at a low cost.
  • It was a year of change for Taylor Leier, who experienced both his first trade, moving from the Philadelphia Flyers to the Buffalo Sabres, and his first season spent exclusively in the AHL. Despite qualifying for Group 6 unrestricted free agency, it seems the 25-year-old forward has place emphasis on familiarity instead of opportunity. The Rochester Americans, affiliate of the Sabres, have announced a one-year AHL contract with Leier. The signing comes as a bit of a surprise, considering Leier spent the entire 2017-18 season in the NHL and has been a very productive AHL player. Young and capable, Leier seemingly would have been a good fit for a two-way deal somewhere, but apparently would rather stay put in Rochester, perhaps in hopes of convincing Buffalo that he is worthy of an NHL contract.
  • Spoiler alert! Although he acknowledges that they are just educated guesses and provides few details, TSN’s respected insider Bob McKenzie has offered some insight where some of the biggest UFA names may end up tomorrow. McKenzie believes that Columbus teammates Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky may not end up as a package deal after all. He thinks that Panarin, and possibly Semyon Varlamov, could land with the New York Islanders, while Bobrovsky goes alone to the Florida Panthers. Those moves would then leave the Carolina Hurricanes and Columbus Blue Jackets as the likely to suitors for Robin Lehner. McKenzie also states that a long-term deal for Mats Zuccarello with the Minnesota Wild appears to be close to done.

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