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Arbitration Breakdown: Philipp Kurashev

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Yesterday, Chicago Blackhawks RFA forward Philipp Kurashev’s arbitration hearing was scheduled, and NBC Sports’ Charlie Roumeliotis reported that the hearing went forward as the team and player could not reach an agreement on a contract.

Puckpedia notes that with Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov also reaching a full arbitration hearing without a deal, this year already features the same number of arbitration hearings as the NHL had seen beforehand since 2020. Kurashev specifically is sort of a prime candidate to have his next contract decided by an arbitrator, as his on-ice value isn’t quite so easy to pin down.

Now, the Blackhawks have more cap space than most other NHL clubs, with over $15MM in space still available. So it’s not like they need to keep Kurashev’s next cap hit as low as possible to remain cap compliant.

Instead, as The Athletic’s Scott Powers writes, since Kurashev, 23, is a player who could possibly still be on the Blackhawks when the team enters its Connor Bedard-led competitive era, the team likely has an interest in keeping his cost as reasonable as possible, since they don’t want to box themselves into overpaying for what he brings once they eventually lack cap space. (subscription link)

So while the value for some teams through the arbitration process is simply getting financial certainty on a player within a designated timeframe, that’s not important for the Blackhawks. Here, Kurashev presents an opportunity for the team to lay the groundwork for a sustainable salary cap future once the team pivots towards legitimate contention.

Filings

Team: $1.4MM (one-year)
Player: $2.65MM (two-years)
Midpoint: $2.025MM

(via Powers)

The Numbers

Although 2022-23 saw Kurashev set a career-high in goals, assists, and points in the NHL, it’s difficult to view the year as an emphatic step forward. Kurashev is a versatile forward for whom last season was his age-23 campaign. As a player gets more NHL experience under his belt and gets closer to his mid-twenties, sizeable growth steps are expected if a player is to reach his highest NHL upside.

For Kurashev, this was the season where he had a chance to really establish himself as an impactful player. He had shown flashes of a high skill level going back to his rookie season, but that had not materialized into standout production with the Blackhawks or AHL’s Rockford IceHogs.

This past season was a test for Kurashev, and how he fared may have revealed an important truth about who he is at the NHL level. Offensive skill wasn’t the main area of value Kurashev provided to first-year head coach Luke Richardson. Instead, it was Kurashev’s versatility and his resilience. In the midst of a challenging season, Kurashev’s ability to play all three forward positions, and his ability to mold himself to fit the expectations and style of any given line he’s placed on made him a regular face in the lineup, at least until he was knocked out for the season by a Tom Wilson hit on March 23rd.

There’s usefulness in the type of player who can act as a sort of “glue” that keeps a line functioning when one of its regulars is maybe absent, but there is a downside to Kurashev’s main calling card being his versatility. The jack-of-all-trades approach combined with how he was deployed meant that he was never able to forge his own unique identity in the NHL.

He was unable to carve out a consistent space for himself within Richardson’s team, instead often bouncing to wherever he was needed most. In other words, his deployment was built around how the lineup was structured, rather than the lineup being built around how he was deployed.

This means moving forward, how do the Blackhawks value Kurashev? Do they see him as a long-term third-line staple, for example? Someone who could occupy a bottom-six role on a consistent basis? Or do they perhaps view him more as a reserve forward, a player who they ideally would trust to step into the lineup whenever an injury hits, rather than someone penciled into an opening-night lineup?

That’s what makes this arbitration case a difficult one, and the arbitration award is likely to come somewhere down the middle of the two parties’ filings. (as most cases do) How Kurashev is deployed next season, now that the Blackhawks have added some genuine talent to their lineup, may reveal how Kurashev is viewed as part of the Blackhawks’ future.

2022-23 Stats: 70 GP 9G 16A 25 pts -32 rating 14 PIMs 7.8% s% 17:25 ATOI 
Career Stats: 191 GP 23G 39A 62 pts -57 rating 38 PIMs 8.6% s% 14:35 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Alexandre Texier (Blue Jackets) – After Texier’s 2020-21 campaign, he signed a two-year, $1.525MM AAV contract extension that likely serves as a “low-end” comparable for what Kurashev’s awarded contract could look like. Texier was a bit younger than Kurashev is now (just about one month separates their birthdays in 1999) but his profile was similar. Texier, like Kurashev, was lauded for his versatility and ability to play at center and the wing. He also had flashed upside at the NHL level but his evident talent had not materialized into anything concrete yet in the league. Like Kurashev, Texier’s poor puck luck (shooting percentage of 5.3%) was also cited as a potential reason explaining why his numbers were a disappointment. Texier managed 15 points in 49 games, a lower pace than Kurashev’s this past season, but overall they have similar profiles, and Kurashev’s floor for what he ends up receiving should look like this Texier deal.

Dillon Dube (Calgary Flames) – Dube signed a three-year, $2.3MM AAV pact with the Flames after his 2020-21 season, a year where he posted 11 goals and 22 points in 51 games. Unlike Kurashev, Dube was utilized almost exclusively on the wing, though he has shown the ability to play center at times both in his junior and later in his NHL career. Dube had a stronger record of production than Kurashev has at other levels of hockey, though, likely influencing the Flames to believe in Dube’s offensive upside at the NHL level. He delivered on that upside in 2022-23, scoring 18 goals and 45 points. It’s unclear whether the Blackhawks believe Kurashev has the ability to post those numbers playing on his next contract, so this $2.3MM AAV could represent a higher-end contract comparable for what Kurashev eventually receives.

Projection

Although there are a lot of reasons to value what Kurashev brings to the Blackhawks, ultimately his numbers are not strong enough to justify his $2.65MM AAV. Averaging over 17 minutes of ice time and over two minutes on a power play across a sample of 70 games should result in better numbers than what Kurashev was able to post.

If Kurashev anchored the Blackhawks’ penalty kill or provided exemplary physical or defensive play, maybe that gap would be bridged a bit, but that’s simply not what Kurashev provides. Still, $1.4MM with a two-year term isn’t exactly fair either. A middle ground at around $2MM AAV, perhaps maybe a shade lower if the arbitrator really puts stock in Kurashev’s lack of points production, seems like a reasonable outcome here.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Ilya Samsonov

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While many players who elected salary arbitration have already settled with their teams, several players are still headed toward hearings, which start tomorrow with the Chicago Blackhawks and forward Philipp Kurashev. Slated for Friday, though, is one of the more intriguing cases still unresolved: Toronto Maple Leafs netminder Ilya Samsonov.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported last night that the two sides are still actively working on a short-term deal, which could get done over the next 48 hours and avoid going to arbitration. Arbitration is usually something teams look to avoid, given they’ll have to agree to any deal awarded under the $4.5MM mark per season. But in Toronto’s case, it’s a good thing – the team is already over the salary cap even with defenseman Jake Muzzin stashed on long-term injured reserve, meaning certainty around Samsonov’s cap hit next season is crucial for them to know exactly how much space to clear in follow-up moves. They’ll have financial assurance with Samsonov one way or another within the next four days.

Filings

Team: $2.4MM
Player: $4.9MM
Midpoint: $3.65MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Last season was, far and away, Samsonov’s best performance to date. A Washington Capitals first-round selection in 2015, Samsonov had shown flashes of strong play during his time in the nation’s capital, especially during his rookie season in 2019-20 when he recorded a 16-6-2 record, .913 save percentage and finished 12th in Calder Trophy voting. After that, things went progressively downhill for the Russian netminder, though, seeing his numbers dip far below league average as injuries limited his playing time. After posting a relatively poor .896 save percentage with the Capitals in 2021-22, he was surprisingly cut loose from the team entirely, hitting the UFA market at age 25 after Washington didn’t issue him a qualifying offer.

Toronto extended him a one-year, $1.8MM prove-it deal to complete their tandem with Matt Murray, and Samsonov soon took over the de facto starting role for himself after a series of injuries kept Murray out of the crease for much of the season. While depth netminders Erik Kallgren and Joseph Woll also found their way into action, Samsonov started a career-high 40 games last year and put together the highest level of play from him in the NHL, even if he was inconsistent at times.

He may not be in the upper echelon of starting netminders, especially with only one top-flight-level season under his belt. Still, he outdueled countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy just a few months ago and was perhaps the most significant reason Toronto won their first playoff series in nearly two decades. An injury early in the Second Round kept him out of the last few games of playoff action, though.

With Toronto in a tight financial situation and Samsonov not having a proven track record, it makes sense why the Maple Leafs want to go short-term with their current starter. They do have Woll in the pipeline, who’s expected to be the full-time backup next season and could potentially be ready for the starting job in a few years. That said, Toronto would surely like to settle with Samsonov on a two- or three-year deal to solidify consistency in their crease.

Because Samsonov would be eligible for unrestricted free agency in 2024, he can only sign a one-year deal via arbitration – not two. If the two sides want a longer-term deal, they must settle before the hearing.

2022-23 Stats: 42 GP, 27-10-5, 4 SO, 2,476 mins, 2.33 GAA, .919 SV%
Career Stats: 131 GP, 79-32-13, 10 SO, 7,341 mins, 2.65 GAA, .908 SV%

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Vitek Vanecek (Devils) – If you’re looking for the framework of a potential deal, look no further than Samsonov’s former tandem partner in Washington. After two average seasons as a tandem netminder in D.C., Vanecek’s RFA rights were traded to New Jersey last offseason before he signed a three-year, $3.4MM AAV contract with the club. Coming off seasons of 37 and 42 games played and .908 save percentages in both seasons, Vanecek might have had consistency on his side more so than Samsonov, but he hadn’t reached the level Samsonov has at times throughout his young career. The latter is a bit of a unicorn in recent RFA goalie signings, and it makes sense why he’d want more than his ex-teammate, but Vanecek’s deal falls near the midpoint of the two filings.

Alexandar Georgiev (Avalanche) – Just a few days before Vanecek signed a deal with his new team in 2022, Georgiev signed the same contract with the Colorado Avalanche. Georgiev had more experience and was perhaps a more highly-touted solution as a starter than Vanecek, but he was coming off a rough year with the New York Rangers that saw his save percentage dip below the .900 mark. Samsonov’s performance last season was much better than either Vanecek’s or Georgiev’s before they signed their deals, though, something he’ll likely leverage in his hearing to make his case for an AAV in the $3.5-$4.5MM range.

Projection

This is the first arbitration case of the summer where the filing values have been publically exchanged, so it’s a bit more challenging to project a first-of-the-offseason deal, especially when there’s a lack of solid comparables in 2023 from which to compare Samsonov’s situation.

On a one-year deal with the potential to cash in for big money on the UFA market in 2024, though, it seems unlikely the arbitrator would rule significantly in Samsonov’s favor. The filings seem pretty reasonable based on past cases, and they’re positioned to grant Samsonov a deal right around the midpoint of the filings, potentially a bit higher. Expect something in the $3.75MM range on a one-year pact for Samsonov if the two sides don’t settle before Friday’s hearing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Free Agent Profile: Vladimir Tarasenko

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This year’s free agent market was a tough one to gauge for teams and players alike. Another year of a tight salary cap situation for most teams, along with a relatively weak class of UFAs, made for some interesting decisions. Take gritty winger, Tyler Bertuzzi, for example. He didn’t get far into extension discussions with the cap-strapped Boston Bruins because he wanted a long-term deal but signed a one-year pact with the Toronto Maple Leafs just a few days into free agency.

But perhaps no player misread the market more than Vladimir Tarasenko, leading to the two-time All-Star being available on the market over two weeks into free agency. While he was reportedly close to a deal with the Carolina Hurricanes earlier in the month, he changed his representation less than a week after July 1, restarting the clock on all pending negotiations. After a bit of a down season, scoring just 18 goals in 69 games split between the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers, the 31-year-old likely didn’t get any offers reflecting the level of commitment he was expecting.

Why teams wouldn’t want to take a longer-term gamble on the 2019 Stanley Cup champion is understandable. Shoulder injuries limited him to 34 games combined in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons. While a return to form in 2021-22 (34 goals and 82 points in 75 games) revitalized his stock, a tough season for him (and the Blues) last year lowered it again, and his post-deadline stint with the Rangers wasn’t at his previous elite goal-scoring level, either.

Still, he is a six-time 30-goal scorer and brings a winning pedigree. He’s worth a spot in almost any team’s top six, although slightly sheltered minutes wouldn’t hurt. With Patrick Kane, the other marquee winger still on the market, not expected to sign until closer to the start of next season, Tarasenko is the best player available for teams looking to add a forward.

Stats

2022-23: 69 GP, 18-32-50, -14 rating, 8 PIMs, 169 shots on goal, 45.7% CF, 16:48 ATOI
Career: 675 GP, 270-304-574, +61 rating, 185 PIMs, 2,124 shots on goal, 52.5% CF, 17:27 ATOI

Potential Suitors

At his age, the likelihood of Tarasenko earning a long-term pact after betting on himself this season is small. Knowing he isn’t getting the compensation he initially set out to receive this summer, signing somewhere that gives him a chance to win a second Stanley Cup will likely be at the top of his mind.

The Hurricanes still give him the best shot of doing just that. Whether it can financially come to fruition, though, is another question. Carolina’s already backed out of one widely-reported transaction this summer, forcing the Philadelphia Flyers to go the buyout route with defenseman Anthony DeAngelo instead of re-acquiring him at half-price. The team is reportedly in discussions with the San Jose Sharks about acquiring reigning Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson, and top-four shutdown defender Brett Pesce remains without a contract extension. There are many moving parts still to come with Carolina, leaving a lot of uncertainty about their ability to fit in another UFA signing under the salary cap after signing Michael Bunting and Dmitry Orlov earlier in the month. Still, Tarasenko would add to what’s already one of the most terrifyingly deep forward groups in the league and, if healthy, could provide the sniper element sorely missing from their recent string of playoff runs.

Another team connected to Tarasenko is the Ottawa Senators, who have an Alex DeBrincat-sized hole in their top six after trading the young winger to the Detroit Red Wings. There are similar financial holdups there, though, as CapFriendly lists them with roughly $5MM in projected space for next season while still needing a new contract for center Shane Pinto. Receiving Dominik Kubalik in return from Detroit gives Ottawa a solid secondary scoring option. Still, he’s been quite streaky throughout his brief NHL career, and Tarasenko provides a high-end, veteran backup option if Kubalik doesn’t pan out in Canada’s capital. Ottawa is a team hungry to make their postseason appearance in six years, and adding Tarasenko could push them right back into the conversation of playoff hopefuls in the Atlantic Division.

The New York Rangers would also love to have Tarasenko back in the fold as a more experienced, higher-ceiling scoring option than some of their other depth names, but they’re in a more dire financial situation than both Carolina and Ottawa. Finding a way to move out or reduce Barclay Goodrow’s cap hit ($3.64MM through 2026-27) could open up some options for them, though.

Projected Contract

Unfortunately for Tarasenko, playing the waiting game has likely cost him a lot of cash in a tight market. Don’t expect him to sign a deal much longer than three seasons when he does sign, and it could very well come in under the $5MM mark per season, given the lack of financial flexibility available among contenders.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

PHR’s 2023 Top 50 NHL Unrestricted Free Agents

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Originally published June 27, 2023

The 2023 offseason is in full swing with the trade market as hot as ever – and we still have four days until free agency begins. Kevin Hayes, Damon Severson, Ivan Provorov, Taylor Hall, and Ryan Johansen will all be with new teams next season, and high-end stars like Pierre-Luc Dubois, Alex DeBrincat, and Norris winner Erik Karlsson could all find themselves on the move in the coming days as well.

On Saturday, though, the focus will turn to a crop of players that can be had for free, at least in terms of asset management. The 2023 unrestricted free agent class may be an unusually weak one, but it still boasts a mix of high-end role players looking to cash in on career seasons and skilled veterans looking for a change of scenery. There’s still time for extensions to come in, but most of the extremely prominent players available are expected to go to market.

With that being said, it’s time for another edition of our yearly Top 50 Unrestricted Free Agents list here at PHR. Our rankings and predictions are all voted on by our whole writing team based on a combination of talent perception and expected demand.

These predictions are independent of each other – i.e. just because we predict Orlov to sign with Washington doesn’t prevent us from predicting another free agent to land there later on. While we acknowledge retirement is a strong possibility for more than a handful of players on our list, it’s not something we predict as a possibility.

Players who were bought out or left unqualified before June 27 appear on this list.

1. Dmitry Orlov – Washington Capitals – 6 years, $37.5MM ($6.25MM AAV)

Orlov is a smooth-skating, steady defender who, in most years, would barely crack the top five of pending UFA rankings. He finds himself in the number one spot on our list thanks to a rather weak class, but he also saw his stock skyrocket after a spectacular post-trade deadline showing with the Boston Bruins. The team does have some more cap space to play with after trading Taylor Hall’s $6MM cap hit to the Chicago Blackhawks, but they have other holes to fill on their roster and won’t be able to accommodate Orlov’s next contract, which will undoubtedly be higher than $6MM. With the Capitals looking to stay in the playoff mix while Alex Ovechkin is still playing, don’t rule out a reunion between the two parties.

Signed in Carolina, 2 years, $15.5MM ($7.75MM AAV)

2. Patrick Kane – Buffalo Sabres – 2 years, $11.5MM ($5.75MM AAV)

One of the league’s most dynamic and skilled forwards, Kane enters his first unrestricted free agent period with some fair question marks after undergoing hip resurfacing surgery this offseason. A reunion with the Chicago Blackhawks seems unlikely – the organization’s public messaging has indicated 2022-23 was their last season with Kane and Toews on the roster. Don’t expect any long-term commitment or an extravagantly high cap hit for Kane, who could go unsigned well into the offseason based on how his recovery goes. That being said, while he looked overmatched at times with the New York Rangers after a late-season trade, he still recorded six points in seven playoff games and is a sure-fire first-ballot Hall of Famer.

3. Vladimir Tarasenko – Seattle Kraken – 4 years, $24MM ($6MM AAV)

After a turbulent last few seasons that saw trade rumors swirl, Tarasenko’s recovered nicely from some serious shoulder injuries, recording 132 points in 144 games over the past two seasons. His ability to find the back of the net may be trailing off, though – his 18 goals this season were his worst total in a full season, as was his 10.7% shooting rate. It doesn’t change the fact he’s still a high-end second-line winger at this stage in the game, though, and his career reputation is exceeded only by Kane among UFA wingers. He’ll likely get a richer deal than his longtime divisional rival.

Signed in Ottawa, 1 year, $5MM

4. Patrice Bergeron – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

The future Hall of Famer put off retirement for another year, and it was a good decision. He had another successful season, leading all UFA centers in scoring with 58 points while being elite at the faceoff dot like usual. If he wanted to actually test the market, he could very well be the most sought-after free agent, but instead, the decision Bergeron will be pondering is the one he was a year ago – does he give it one more go with the Bruins or hang up his skates and call it a career?

Retired

5. Alex Killorn – Detroit Red Wings – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

The high-energy top-six winger is coming off three Stanley Cup Final appearances in four seasons, although his performance in Tampa’s run to the 2022 Final left much to be desired. He quieted all doubters in 2022-23, though, recording career-highs across the board with 27 goals and 64 points. The 33-year-old’s set himself up nicely for a mid-tier term commitment on his next deal, which could be his last, and has likely priced himself out of a return to the Sunshine State in the process.

Signed in Anaheim, 4 years, $25MM ($6.25MM AAV)

6. J.T. Compher – Colorado Avalanche – 5 years, $27.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

After a strong performance in Colorado’s 2022 Stanley Cup win, Compher positioned himself nicely for unrestricted free agency with a career-high 52 points in 2022-23. He played in all 82 games, averaging a whopping 20:32 per game in the second-line center spot after Nazem Kadri’s departure and Alex Newhook falling down the lineup after an early-season look in that role. Colorado went out and acquired Ryan Johansen last week in case Compher goes somewhere else, but teams could be wary of how much of Compher’s uptick in production is sustainable, given his ice time won’t be nearly as high next season.

Signed in Detroit, 5 years, $25.5MM ($5.1MM AAV)

7. Ryan O’Reilly – Detroit Red Wings – 3 years, $16.5MM ($5.5MM AAV)

Now 32 years old, O’Reilly’s offensive form declined in his final season with the Blues, just as the Blues themselves had an underwhelming campaign. But a mid-season trade to the Toronto Maple Leafs illustrated exactly why the Lady Byng, Selke, and Conn Smythe Trophy winner remained an in-demand player league-wide. He managed a combined 20 points in 24 regular season and playoff games, including production in some big moments helping Toronto achieve a long-awaited playoff series win. There are questions about how well he’ll age, but in a thin center class, he’s in the conversation as the best option available.  

Signed in Nashville, 4 years, $18MM ($4.5MM AAV)

8. Ivan Barbashev – Carolina Hurricanes – 7 years, $42MM ($6MM AAV)

He may not get the highest cap hit of anyone on this list, but we’re predicting Barbashev to get the highest total value deal after the market opens on Saturday. He’s one of the youngest top UFAs available at age 27, and he just recorded 18 points in 22 games while playing a first-line role on a Stanley Cup champion. Needless to say, he’s priced himself out of a return to Sin City, but a contending team with flexibility looking to make a splash to their top six will find room for him on a max-term deal.

Re-signed in Vegas, 5 years, $25MM ($5MM AAV)

9. Ryan Graves – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

Graves is a great player the Devils would love to have back. It’s a mere roster crunch, though – they have better players coming in Luke Hughes and Simon Nemec. The 2013 fourth-round pick has since made a name for himself as a steady top-four defenseman ever since leading the NHL in plus-minus during his first full season in 2019-20. This season, though, his advanced defensive metrics weren’t all that impressive despite another sky-high plus-minus rating of +34. He did, however, see some of the toughest competition out of anyone in the league and still has the tools to post better results with some slightly eased minutes. He’ll land top-four money on the open market, no doubt.

Signed in Pittsburgh, 6 years, $27MM ($4.5MM AAV)

10. Tyler Bertuzzi – Nashville Predators – 4 years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)

In 2021-22, Bertuzzi showed how productive he can be when he’s able to stay healthy and in the lineup. This past season, he struggled and dealt with injury trouble in Detroit, but after being moved to Boston, his production improved considerably before tying for the team lead in playoff points against Florida. At 28, he’s one of the younger wingers on the market and should have several more top-six seasons in him. If he can stay healthy, Bertuzzi should be one of the more impactful players from this free-agent class.

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $5.5MM

11. Max Domi – Chicago Blackhawks – 3 years, $13.5MM ($4.5MM AAV)

Getting some long-term security has been a challenge for Domi as he has yet to sign a contract longer than two years since his entry-level contract. That should change this time around. After spending most of 2021-22 on the wing, the 28-year-old spent a lot of this past season playing at center, having his second-best offensive year in the process. With many teams looking for help down the middle and offensive versatility, Domi’s market should be considerably stronger than it was a year ago when he had to settle for a one-year deal. 

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $3MM

12. Michael Bunting – Toronto Maple Leafs – 4 years, $22MM ($5.5MM AAV)

Poised to be one of the top UFAs just a few months ago, Bunting falls down our board after some shaky play down the stretch and, more importantly, in the postseason. The high-energy winger can be a valuable pest at times but doesn’t have the refinement in his edgy game that a Brad Marchand type does. That doesn’t mean he’s not a great player – he’s a more-than-capable offensive threat who’s coming off back-to-back 23-goal seasons. His stock is undoubtedly elevated by his star-studded linemates, though, and he may not get the Zach Hyman-type contract some thought he would earlier in the season.

Signed in Carolina, 3 years, $13.5MM ($4.5MM AAV)

13. Shayne Gostisbehere – Florida Panthers – 4 years, $19.4MM ($4.85MM AAV)

Now 30, a pair of seasons spent mostly with the Arizona Coyotes have rejuvenated Gostisbehere’s offensive game. While he dipped to a third-pairing/power-play specialist role after he was dealt to Carolina at the trade deadline, Gostisbehere actually posted very strong defensive numbers while averaging over 22 minutes per game with the Coyotes as their de facto number one throughout most of the year with Jakob Chychrun out of the lineup for extended periods of time. He won’t win any Norris trophies, but Gostisbehere now is much closer to the player that finished second in Calder voting in 2016 than some would have you think. He’s the highest-upside defender available on the open market, although he falls to third on our list among D, given his inconsistent career track record.

Signed in Detroit, 1 year, $4.125MM

14. Tristan Jarry – Pittsburgh Penguins – 4 years, $20MM ($5MM AAV)

With the 14th spot, we arrive at our first goalie. Jarry’s performance in Pittsburgh has been oft-discussed, and injury concerns are a valid complaint about his viability as a long-term starter. But he’s posted numbers few can complain about, averaging a .915 save percentage over the past four seasons, winning at least 20 games every year. He’s undoubtedly the top netminder available – if Pittsburgh lets him walk.

Re-signed in Pittsburgh, 5 years, $26.875MM ($5.375MM AAV)

15. Jason Zucker – Winnipeg Jets – 5 years, $25MM ($5MM AAV)

The 31-year-old had a career revival of sorts in 2022-23, posting his highest goal total in five years. He played like a true top-six winger in a contract year, and he’s set himself up nicely to get a decent financial commitment, although it may be from another team. He did struggle mightily in Pittsburgh for two out of his three seasons there. That being said, his 27 goals this year tie him for first among all pending UFAs.

Signed in Arizona, 1 year, $5.3MM

16. David Krejci – Boston Bruins – 1 year, $1MM + bonuses

Krejci is likely one of the top five players available in this market based on talent, but possible retirement looms and drops him down our list significantly. The 37-year-old veteran had a spectacular campaign after taking a one-season absence from the NHL to play at home while still in his prime, but he came back and recorded 56 points in 70 games while continuing to display supreme playmaking skills. He won’t play anywhere else than Boston if he does return, much like Bergeron.

17. Scott Mayfield – New York Islanders – 4 years, $15.4MM ($3.85MM AAV)

Mayfield signed a contract that proved to be an absolute steal for the Islanders earlier in his career, and he’s established himself as a quality defensive defenseman in the NHL – costing New York just $1.45MM against the cap. This is his chance to cash in, and as a 6-foot-5 right-shot defenseman who ranked second on the Islanders in average ice time and led them in time logged on the penalty kill, he’s likely to have strong interest on the open market but could end up finding his way back on a healthy raise.

Re-signed in New York, 7 years, $24.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

18. Matt Dumba – Seattle Kraken – 4 years, $21MM ($5.25MM AAV)

Dumba, 28, might not be the dynamic two-way force capable of scoring 50 points as he was earlier in his career, but he remains a valuable player due to his ability to soak up difficult minutes and be a valuable leader and locker room voice. While the 2020 King Clancy Memorial Trophy winner’s average ice time dipped to the lowest point of Dumba’s career since 2016-17, he’s widely considered a top-four defenseman and should be a premier option for a team looking to add a reliable veteran to its blue line.

19. Frederik Andersen – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $8.5MM ($4.25MM AAV)

The Great Dane had a spectacular playoff performance for the Hurricanes but finds himself slotted behind Jarry on our final list thanks to similar injury concerns and a much weaker regular season in 2022-23. The two-time Jennings Trophy winner is coming off a nearly Vezina-caliber season in 2021-22, though, and he’s shown the capability to be a top-ten netminder in this league – just never for multiple seasons in a row. At 33 years old, he may not have a lot of career runway left with his injury history. He’ll likely be settling for another short-term deal.

Re-signed in Carolina, 2 years, $6.8MM ($3.4MM AAV)

20. John Klingberg – Arizona Coyotes – 3 years, $15MM ($5MM AAV)

Few players have proved themselves less on a prove-it deal than Klingberg did last season with the Ducks, having one of the worst seasons defensively of any top-of-the-lineup player in the post-lockout era. He hasn’t met the eye test without the puck at any point recently, either, although he was still on pace for 40 points in a full campaign and is worth a spot in the lineup with more sheltered minutes. Look for a team with severe depth deficiencies on defense (and cap room to spare) to nab Klingberg on the open market, much like last season.

Signed in Toronto, 1 year, $4.15MM

21. Evan Rodrigues – Chicago Blackhawks – 3 years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)

An oft-cited analytics darling, Rodrigues has finally broken out into a high-end, two-way forward in a middle-six role. He’ll never break the bank offensively – he’s yet to score more than 20 goals and 45 points in a full season – but he was on pace to do so this year had he played in all 82 games (he missed 13 with injuries). He’s also by no means a sharpshooter, but he’s an incredible play driver who, as he’s shown over the past few campaigns, makes the players around him better. He could be a good fit as a complementary piece to a team looking to get some insulation for their young stars.

Signed in Florida, 4 years, $12MM ($3MM AAV)

22. Tomas Tatar – Dallas Stars – 2 years, $7.6MM ($3.8MM AAV)

After a slow start to his two-year deal in New Jersey, Tatar had a bounce-back 2022-23 campaign, reaching the 20-goal mark for the sixth time in his career and scoring 48 points, his most since 2019-20. Tatar was signed by New Jersey despite only weeks after sitting as a healthy scratch for the majority of the Montreal Canadiens’ run to the Stanley Cup Final. Tatar has always struggled to be an impactful player in the playoffs, but for the Devils, their worry was more about actually reaching the postseason and ending their rebuild than anything else. While Tatar is unlikely to suddenly become a playoff difference-maker at 33 years old, he’s still a productive middle-six scorer with a lot of value for a team looking to make a push for a playoff spot.

23. Carson Soucy – San Jose Sharks – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Like Graves, Soucy will be one of the more coveted shutdown defenders available on the open market. A lack of top-four minutes will likely limit what offers he’ll get, but Soucy’s defensive play has been quite good over the past few seasons, and maybe more importantly, it’s been incredibly consistent. He’s one of the safest players available on the open market – at 28, he’s not prone to a sudden decline. Teams will know what they’re getting in Soucy, who can also play either side of the ice as a left shot and has good size at 6-foot-5 and 208 pounds.

Signed in Vancouver, 3 years, $9.75MM ($3.25MM AAV)

24. Joonas Korpisalo – Ottawa Senators – 2 years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV)

After multiple seasons of sub-.900 save percentage with the Columbus Blue Jackets, Korpisalo finally emerged as a potential regular-season starter in 2022-23, exceptional playoff appearances notwithstanding. He had his best campaign since his .920 rookie year in 2015-16, solidifying Los Angeles’ goalie situation down the stretch after a trade with a .921 mark in 11 starts. He’s got no semblance of consistency throughout his career, though, and likely won’t be relied upon as “the answer” for any team – although he could land a tandem role with some increased activity in the crease.

Signed in Ottawa, 5 years, $20MM ($4MM AAV)

25. Alexander Kerfoot – Edmonton Oilers – 3 years, $11.25MM ($3.75MM AAV)

Now 28, Kerfoot’s got six NHL seasons and nearly 500 NHL games under his belt after being one of the more highly-touted collegiate free agents in 2017. His offensive numbers took a dip to just 32 points in Toronto this season, but he still put together very solid defensive play and carries some value with his versatility, able to play both center and wing rather comfortably. He won’t change the direction of your team, but there are much worse middle-six options out there, especially for a team with a need for a defensively responsible forward and strong penalty killer.

Signed in Arizona, 2 years, $7MM ($3.5MM AAV)

26. Evgenii Dadonov – Washington Capitals – 1 year, $2.25MM

While Dadonov was a quality contributor in his final season with Vegas, after an offseason trade to the Canadiens, his form took a nosedive. He struggled to build momentum in Montreal and was largely unproductive, leaving many to wonder if, after finishing the year in Montreal, he would return to the KHL. Nobody is wondering now, though, as Dadonov reminded everyone of his offensive capabilities after a mid-season trade to Dallas. He scored a combined 25 points in 39 games in the regular season and playoffs and helped the Stars on a run to the Western Conference Final. He’s unlikely to receive any major multi-year commitments, but he’ll likely be of interest to teams looking to add a skilled offensive player on a one-year deal. 

Re-signed in Dallas, 2 years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)

27. Semyon Varlamov – New York Islanders – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Varlamov continues to excel quietly into his late 30s, although he’s now completely overshadowed by Ilya Sorokin on Long Island. He’s been a decidedly above-average netminder throughout his four seasons with New York, and he still posted a .913 save percentage and two shutouts this season, although he received just 22 starts. That’s likely what he’ll be in line for again if he re-signs with New York – Sorokin won’t be cooling off anytime soon.

Re-signed in New York, 4 years, $11MM ($2.75MM AAV)

28. Jonathan Toews – Edmonton Oilers – 1 year, $1.5MM + bonuses

Retirement could very well be the most likely option for Toews, who was in and out of the lineup this season as he continues to deal with long-term health issues stemming from CIRS and COVID. The 35-year-old isn’t a top-six caliber center on a contending team anymore, although he could make sense for some in a third-line role. He did put up 31 points in 53 games with Chicago last season in his final year with the franchise, but he’s best described as a non-factor defensively at this stage in his career.

29. Connor Clifton – New Jersey Devils – 3 years, $9.3MM ($3.1MM AAV)

Clifton had played an understatedly strong game with Boston over the past few seasons but oftentimes became a healthy scratch. That all changed this season, skating in 78 out of 82 games and posting a career-high 23 points and +20 rating in a bottom-pairing role for the record-breaking Bruins. There’s no doubt he’s an everyday NHL player at age 28, and the 2013 fifth-round pick is a strong penalty killer too. He’ll make a difference for a team looking to upgrade their third pair in a big way.

Signed in Buffalo, 3 years, $10MM ($3.33MM AAV)

30. Radko Gudas – Ottawa Senators – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Another player who saw their stock rise from a playoff performance, rumors say Gudas could receive a longer-term commitment than expected for a 33-year-old physical defenseman. Still a very strong lockdown defender, Gudas is worth the money for his very unique blend of physicality and more-than-competent two-way play from a blueliner. He’s never scored more than six goals or 25 points in a season, but he’s got enough smarts to his game to not limit the offensive capabilities of those around him.

Signed in Anaheim, 3 years, $12MM ($4MM AAV)

31. Connor Brown – Columbus Blue Jackets – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

Brown is one of the wild cards of this free agent class. The Capitals brought him over from Ottawa last summer, hoping he’d bolster their middle-six forward group and serve as a good replacement for Tom Wilson, who was set to miss part of the season with a torn ACL. Instead, the 29-year-old tore his ACL in just his fourth game, ending his year prematurely. Brown averaged 35 points over the six previous seasons and is a dependable defensive forward as well. Had he been healthy, he’d likely slot in a fair bit higher on this list, but the uncertainty around his injury hurt him in our voting. It’ll be interesting to see what type of impact that uncertainty has on general managers around the league.

Signed in Edmonton, 1 year, $775K + $3.225MM in bonuses

32. Erik Gustafsson – Buffalo Sabres – 2 years, $6MM ($3MM AAV)

Gustafsson went a long way toward repairing his reputation around the league this season, posting very solid numbers on both sides of the puck en route to his highest-scoring season since he had 60 points with the Chicago Blackhawks back in 2018-19. He averaged nearly 20 minutes per game this season across 70 games with the Washington Capitals and Toronto Maple Leafs, notching seven goals and 42 points while not looking out of place wherever he played in the lineup. Questions about his year-to-year consistency remain, but he’ll be an intriguing option for a team looking to add some versatility to its defense.

Signed with New York Rangers, 1 year, $825K

33. Max Pacioretty – Carolina Hurricanes – 1 year, $2MM + bonuses

This past season was one to forget for the veteran. Given away to Carolina for free as a straight cap dump, Pacioretty tore his Achilles tendon in off-season training, resulting in a long recovery time. When he came back, he tore it again, ending his year after just five games. However, the 34-year-old has reached the 20-goal mark in seven of the last ten seasons, and if he’s healthy, Pacioretty has a good chance to do that once again. With the recent injury history, he’s a buy-low candidate with some upside.

Signed in Washington, 1 year, $2MM + $2MM in bonuses

34. Gustav Nyquist – Colorado Avalanche – 1 year, $3.25MM

The 33-year-old has had multiple severe shoulder injuries over the past few seasons, but a strong showing in nine games to end the season with the Minnesota Wild will cause a team looking for scoring depth to bite. Notching a goal and nine assists, Nyquist showed he’s still got solid playmaking ability but will need a more limited role. Teams expecting him to rebound to 60-point form will be disappointed, especially given the extremely high likelihood he won’t play all 82 games, but he’s got a few seasons left in the tank.

Signed in Nashville, 2 years, $6.37MM ($3.185MM AAV)

35. Pierre Engvall – New York Islanders – 3 years, $9MM ($3MM AAV)

After getting traded by the Maple Leafs in February, Engvall gave the Islanders an extra push to make the playoffs. He spent most of his time as an Islander on a line with Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, which was by far their most consistent offensive force down the stretch. Engvall was a solid fit, bringing more offensive depth to a team that sorely needed it. General manager Lou Lamoriello already expressed his wishes to re-sign the Swedish winger, and there’s no reason to think it won’t happen.

Re-signed in New York, 7 years, $21MM ($3MM AAV)

36. Conor Sheary – Florida Panthers – 2 years, $6.3MM ($3.15MM AAV)

Sheary is a skilled depth player who seemed to find a career rebirth in Washington, recording back-to-back 15-goal seasons. With the Capitals looking for a retool, he could find his way elsewhere on the open market, especially as he’s in line to earn a bit of a raise on his previous AAV of $1.5MM. Wherever he lands, Sheary is a good two-way forward and a veteran with a good bit of playoff experience.

Signed in Tampa Bay, 3 years, $6MM ($2MM AAV)

37. Luke Schenn – Toronto Maple Leafs – 2 years, $3MM ($1.5MM AAV)

The 33-year-old former top-ten pick returned to the team that drafted him at this year’s trade deadline, looking like he never left. 2022-23 was some of Schenn’s best hockey in years, proving he can still stick around as a serviceable and effective bottom-pairing defenseman. His 22 points in 70 games actually tied a career-high, and he tacked on some spectacular defensive play in the postseason to boot.

Signed in Nashville, 3 years, $8.25MM ($2.75MM AAV)

38. David Kampf – Pittsburgh Penguins – 3 years, $7.5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Kampf’s emerged as a premier shutdown center during his time with the Maple Leafs, winning more than 500 faceoffs in each of the past two seasons and seeing his ice time creep up to over 15 minutes per game. He’s become a solid bet for 20 to 30 points and is an ideal pivot for a defensively inclined third line, and he’d fill Pittsburgh’s largest problem area from last season. Expecting him to join the GM who brought him to Toronto in the first place is a rather reasonable prediction.

Re-signed in Toronto, 4 years, $9.6MM ($2.4MM AAV)

39. Antti Raanta – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $6.6MM ($3.3MM AAV)

There are few that would argue against Raanta’s ability. He has found great results when he plays, recording a save percentage of over .900 in every season since 2014-15 and a collective .910 in the 67 games he’s played since 2021. But a long history of injuries has made Raanta into little more than an exciting backup option. He appeared in 27 games this season, battling with a groin injury in March and an illness in April that forced the Carolina Hurricanes to turn to Pyotr Kochetkov. There is a lot to like about Raanta, and his results are undeniable, but unless a team is feeling particularly risky, it’s unlikely he’ll find a starting net with a new team.

Re-signed in Carolina, 1 year, $1.5MM

40. Jesper Fast – Carolina Hurricanes – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Jesper Fast is not a high-end scorer, but he showed a penchant for some key goals throughout their run to the Eastern Conference Final. A capable defensive presence, you could do much worse for a dual-threat third-line winger. He’s scored 30 goals and 82 points in 208 games with Carolina over the past three years, and it’s a marriage both sides would be happy to extend at a fair price.

Re-signed in Carolina, 2 years, $4.8MM ($2.4MM AAV)

41. Brian Dumoulin – Colorado Avalanche – 3 years, $10.5MM ($3.5MM AAV)

Kris Letang’s longtime partner could be looking for a new home this offseason, with Pittsburgh looking to make some roster overhauls. He’s maintained pretty consistent defensive play over the past few years, with his plus-minus rating in 2022-23 tanked by some unusually poor on-ice shooting percentage from his teammates (8.6%). He’s maybe better suited for a second- or third-pairing role as he gets up there in age, but would be a quality add for a team looking to get a competent shutdown defender.

Signed in Seattle, 2 years, $6.3MM ($3.15MM AAV)

42. Kevin Shattenkirk – Minnesota Wild – 2 years, $5MM ($2.5MM AAV)

While not a flashy option, Shattenkirk has stayed on NHL payrolls because of the serviceable, bottom-four reliability that he offers. The right-shot defender averaged just over 19 minutes per game with the Anaheim Ducks last season, filling in on both the penalty kill and power play when needed. While plagued by injury concerns throughout his career, Shattenkirk played in 82 games in 2021-22 and 75 games this season – losing seven games to various lower-body injuries – marking the most games he’s played over a two-year stretch in his entire career. If he really is past the injury plague, Shattenkirk will be a well-rounded and flexible defender for teams looking to complete their bottom pair.

Signed in Boston, 1 year, $1.05MM

43. Garnet Hathaway – St. Louis Blues – 4 years, $8MM ($2MM AAV)

Trade rumors have followed Garnet Hathaway for many years, but it wasn’t until this season that Washington sent away the bottom-six forward, including him as an additional piece in the blockbuster deal that sent Orlov to the Bruins. While he wasn’t too flashy in Boston, the team felt inclined to roster him in all seven of their playoff games, speaking to the attractive reliability that he offers on the fourth line. Boston also utilized Hathaway as a fallback option for the penalty kill, providing a small boost to his value heading into free agency. Every team wants a hardy, veteran presence in their bottom six, and Hathaway is a cheap way of finding it.

Signed in Philadelphia, 2 years, $4.75MM ($2.375MM AAV)

44. Justin Holl – Anaheim Ducks – 3 years, $9.75MM ($3.25MM AAV)

Holl’s been one of the more maligned players in recent Maple Leafs lore, thanks to some very visible and costly defensive miscues. Overall, though, he generally makes up for them in a quieter way and remains an effective mid-pair defender who can eat over 20 minutes per game. You know what you’re getting for his offensive production – he’s notched between 18 and 23 points the past four seasons. He falls below the similarly-rated Dumoulin on our list thanks to those defensive inconsistencies, although he is a bit more proficient offensively.

Signed in Detroit, 3 years, $10.2MM ($3.4MM AAV)

45. James van Riemsdyk – Vegas Golden Knights – 2 years, $5.5MM ($2.75MM AAV)

The 2007 second-overall pick is officially over the hill, recording just 12 goals and 29 points in 61 games with the Flyers last season. It may be buyer beware in case his decline exaggerates as he enters his mid-30s, but he could still absolutely be a capable third-line scoring winger with a much stronger team around him. The veteran of 14 seasons and 940 games is still looking for a Stanley Cup.

Signed in Boston, 1 year, $1MM

46. Ian Cole – Vancouver Canucks – 2 years, $4MM ($2MM AAV)

Cole quietly played a very important role for the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2022-23, picking up a lot of the slack for Ryan McDonagh after his departure. He excelled mightily in a shutdown role, averaging over 19 minutes per game, recording 17 points in 78 games and a +13 rating. He’s been linked to the Canucks on a multi-year deal by both Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and CHEK’s Rick Dhaliwal.

Signed in Vancouver, 1 year, $3MM

47. Oliver Ekman-Larsson – Tampa Bay Lightning – 2 years, $4.5MM ($2.25MM AAV)

A late (and perhaps surprising) entrant to the UFA market, which resulted in him not hitting all of our writers’ ballots, Ekman-Larsson isn’t the number one defenseman he was previously in Arizona. That resulted in him not living up to his contract, and eventually, Vancouver felt it was better to buy out the final four years of his deal. But that doesn’t mean he’s finished as an NHL defenseman. The 31-year-old is likely to be quite motivated, and in the right setting in a complementary role, he could be a nice under-the-radar addition this summer.

Signed in Florida, 1 year, $2.25MM

48. Zach Parise – New York Islanders – 1 year, $1.15MM

Parise’s given the Isles solid value after a massive buyout from the Minnesota Wild, providing good goal-scoring depth and veteran leadership. He’s played in all 82 games the past two seasons and scored 15 and 21 goals, respectively – he’s still got some left in the tank at age 38 (soon to be 39). It seems unlikely he’d have much of a desire to go anywhere else at this point, and there’s little reason to believe the Islanders wouldn’t be open to a reunion.

49. Nick Bjugstad – Boston Bruins – 3 years, $5.25MM ($1.75MM AAV)

Last summer, his market wasn’t the strongest after playing a very limited role in Minnesota. He signed a low-cost deal in Arizona with the idea of getting a bigger role to show he can still contribute. He did just that, picking up 17 goals, taking over 1,000 faceoffs, and averaging over two hits per game. Those are elements that many teams will want to see from their role players, and after a decent playoff showing with Edmonton, Bjugstad should have a much better market this time around.

Signed in Arizona, 2 years, $4.2MM ($2.1MM AAV)

50. Miles Wood – San Jose Sharks – 2 years, $5.2MM ($2.6MM AAV)

Wood had a somewhat disappointing season in 2022-23, but it may take him a while to get back to his previous form after missing nearly all of 2021-22 with injury. Now 27, Wood likely won’t ever be good for more than 35 points in a season, but he can be effective as a hard-nosed winger in a third-line role. He could land somewhere lacking forward depth, looking for more upward mobility that he won’t get by re-signing in New Jersey.

Signed in Colorado, 6 years, $15MM ($2.5MM AAV)

Looking At Five 2023 Non-Qualified UFA Targets

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The 2023 unrestricted free agent class may be disappointing, especially with some high-profile names like Stanley Cup champions Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill coming off the board in recent days. However, the market did get a bit of a boost in the last 24 hours thanks to a slew of buyouts and the qualifying offer deadline, which saw over 100 restricted free agents get released by their teams to unrestricted status tomorrow. With that being said, it’s time to take a look at some of the more intriguing targets now available for teams to sign.

Each player’s former team is listed in parentheses. You can find the full list of RFAs that went unqualified here.

D Ethan Bear (VAN)

The summer will likely end with Bear re-signing in Vancouver, but there’s nothing stopping him from heading elsewhere if a team comes calling. He could last a bit into the summer as he recovers from a shoulder injury sustained while playing at the IIHF Men’s World Championship, though.

After not really finding a role in the Carolina Hurricanes lineup, Bear had a very solid season with the Canucks, posting 16 points in 61 games and providing high-end two-way play for a team that desperately needed it. Add in the fact he’s a right shot and still only 26 years old, and he makes for a rather appealing target that would have landed on our top 50 unrestricted free agents list for 2023.

He’s likely to earn a two-to-three-year deal, probably slightly under his $2.2MM qualifying offer. If so, all signs point to it being one of the better value signings of a summer poised to see some overpayments out of need in a weak UFA class.

F Denis Gurianov (MTL)

Things have been downhill for the 2015 12th overall pick since he logged 20 goals in his rookie season, a feat he hasn’t matched since. After sliding back out of a consistent top-nine role with the Dallas Stars, he was dealt to the Montreal Canadiens at the deadline in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov, a move that may have paid dividends for both sides. Gurianov did show a bit of a resurgence with the Habs, scoring five goals and eight points in 23 games, looking more engaged than he did with the Stars. The Habs will likely attempt to get a deal done here, but he wasn’t worth the $2.9MM qualifying offer he was due.

This is not a case of analytics suggesting a breakout, though, in fact, it’s the opposite. There are red flags nearly everywhere in his profile, suggesting he’s a liability in isolation. There is still some obvious raw skill with Gurianov, though, and for a cheap cost, he could put up some higher point totals with picture-perfect chemistry. It remains to be seen whether he’ll ever find that.

D Caleb Jones (CHI)

The counting stats here aren’t the prettiest, but advanced metrics have long tabbed Jones as an effective player for his role. Last season, Jones’ -19 rating may not have been pretty, but he also logged nearly 20 minutes a night on a lottery team. In fact, Jones logged a career-high relative Corsi for percentage at even strength of 4.8%, and his 16 points in 73 games were a career-high.

He’ll never break the bank offensively from the blue line, nor should you expect him to, but he’s got an underrated ability to drive play and proved this season he can take on more serious minutes against tougher competition. Add in the fact he can play both the left and right side, and he should be quite a good value signing for a team looking to bolster their third pair (or potentially second).

At 26, though, Jones was nearing retirement age on a very youthful Chicago blueline, and they decided to cut ties to make room for more of their future talent. He shouldn’t cost much more than $2MM on a one-year offer.

F Daniel Sprong (SEA)

Sprong easily jumps out as the most tantalizing target here. Quickly overtaking Dale Weise for the “Dutch Gretzky” title (sorry, Canadiens fans), Sprong has grown into one of the most efficient per-minute scorers in the league. He’s notched at least 13 goals in four of the last five seasons, never averaging more than 13 minutes per game – in fact, he scored 21 goals (and 46 points) in just 66 games with the Kraken this year despite staying squarely in a fourth-line role, averaging 11:25 per game. He was 17th in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes this season among skaters with at least 25 games.

With that, he’s set himself up for more ice time and more money. He was eligible for arbitration and likely would’ve garnered a rich reward for his production – a number Seattle didn’t want to pay. That doesn’t mean another team won’t, although an underwhelming playoff performance may scare some teams off. For a fringe team looking to add a high-octane option to its top nine, though, look no further than the 26-year-old Sprong.

He could very well command above the $3MM mark on a short-term but multi-year deal, especially from a team slated toward the bottom of the league standings. He jumps out as an attractive option for teams like the Arizona Coyotes, who could bank on Sprong’s production maintaining (or even increasing) with a slight bump in minutes, parlaying it into a valuable trade at next year’s deadline. Signing him to a two- or three-year deal with cost certainty as the salary cap rises would only add to his trade value.

F Sam Steel (MIN)

Steel is the only unqualified RFA who can say they were a number-one center last year. However, it was by necessity – with the Minnesota Wild needing Joel Eriksson Ek to round out their top-six on their second line, it was an in-and-out swap all year between Steel and Ryan Hartman between their pair of star wings in Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. Steel did have a career-high 10 goals and 28 points in 65 games, but you’d expect more for someone who spent over 350 minutes with Kaprizov and Zuccarello this season – especially from a former first-round pick.

That being said, you could do worse for a third-line center. Steel isn’t a liability defensively, and while he may not be able to translate his offensive acumen to the scoresheet in the NHL, he won’t take points away from those around him and can survive as a complementary player.

Still, with uninspiring production in Minnesota, he wasn’t a candidate to stick around, as the team needs every dollar available to them to stay in playoff contention. He’s flashed the least upside at the NHL level of any of the five players listed, although he does carry some certainty in terms of his defensive impacts and offensive production that others here don’t offer.

Other targets to watch: F Nathan Bastian (NJD), G Mackenzie Blackwood (SJS), F Max Comtois (ANA), F Morgan Geekie (SEA), F Tyson Jost (BUF), F Klim Kostin (DET), F Denis Malgin (COL), F Michael McLeod (NJD), F Jesse Puljujarvi (CAR)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

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The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Carolina.

No one would have faulted the Carolina Hurricanes for a second-round exit after losing Andrei Svechnikov, Max Pacioretty, and Teuvo Teravainen to injuries. Instead, some miracle performances from depth players vaulted them into the Eastern Conference Final – before promptly getting swept by the Florida Panthers. While they were up against a Vezina-caliber netminder in Sergei Bobrovsky playing some of the best hockey in his life, the Hurricanes still scored just six goals in four Conference Final games, igniting an all-too-familiar refrain among their recent playoff exits. General manager Don Waddell enters the offseason with a crystal-clear priority: improve the team’s scoring ability. They have the cap space to do so.

Sign A Second-Line Center

Let’s make one thing clear – this is not a knock on Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

He produced the way a player getting paid his $4.82MM cap hit should. The 22-year-old Finn still has some room to grow and notched a career-high 18 goals and 43 points while putting together some solid defensive hockey. He looked overmatched at times during the postseason, though, and perhaps he’s best slotted in the Hurricanes lineup as a high-end third-line center, allowing them to bump competent veteran Jordan Staal down to fourth-line minutes. With a solid top-four wing core of Svechinkov, Teravainen, Martin Necas, and Seth Jarvis, the most glaring hole in terms of offense on the team’s top two lines is at center.

There are a handful of solid options in free agency that provide a bit more offensive ceiling, especially if they’re playing with Necas. Carolina has $24MM in cap space this offseason, per CapFriendly, a number that should be around $15-18MM after figuring out their goalie situation (more on that later). Throw in another $10MM to replace (or re-sign) players like Staal and Jesper Fast, and the team should be able to throw around at least $5MM per season to a second-line center.

Could Ryan O’Reilly provide a veteran presence and added offensive punch with a speedy Necas? What about the minute-munching J.T. Compher if he doesn’t reach an extension with the Colorado Avalanche? Max Domi could be a solid option, too, although he’s less of a sure thing given his offensive inconsistencies throughout his career.

Trade Or Extend Pesce

The Hurricanes have a pair of key unrestricted free agents up in front in 2024 in Teravainen and Sebastian Aho, but there’s not much concern about the team’s ability to get them locked into extensions. On defense, though, their second pairing of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are both destined for UFA status a year from now, and rumors have been churning about Carolina’s ability to get Pesce locked down to a long-term deal.

If they get through the next few weeks without much confidence in getting Pesce extended, he’ll likely be moved. There’s been a fair bit of trade chatter already, but with former teammate Noah Hanifin likely also on the trade block, Pesce’s value will likely only rise as teams look for an elite right-shot shutdown defender on the open market. The 28-year-old averaged 22 minutes a game this season against tough competition and still managed to produce well on the scoresheet, too, recording 30 points in all 82 games.

He would net Carolina a first-round pick at minimum, adding to a prospect pool that’s already much stronger than it should be, thanks to a large amount of high-value picks in recent years from Waddell. Trading him would also free up some more cap space to add on offense while still permitting them to sign a decent replacement for Pesce on the open market.

That’s not to say Carolina shouldn’t make any effort to get a deal done here – he’s a spectacular player who’s been a large part of their success in recent seasons. If there just isn’t anything to be had there, though, it’s not the end of the world.

Re-Sign Netminders

Collectively, Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta didn’t have the best regular seasons. Andersen’s save percentage dipped to .903 after recording a .922 mark in 2021-22, while Raanta’s decline was much less exaggerated (.912 in 2021-22, .910 in 2022-23).

Andersen put all that behind him in the playoffs, though, recording a .927 save percentage in nine starts, outmatched only by Bobrovsky in the Eastern Conference. The 33-year-old should be a top priority for the Hurricanes to be back, even with young Pyotr Kochetkov waiting in the wings and vying for a full-time NHL spot.

Both he and Raanta are quite injury-prone, and it’s something that’s handcuffed the team at times. Luckily for them, Kochetkov has come in handy – and it’s why the three-goalie model should be used for another season. Re-signing both Andersen and Raanta gives Carolina perhaps the best goaltending safety net in the league, ensuring they’ll have a quality option with NHL experience ready to go, especially if both Andersen and Raanta are unavailable at times heading into the postseason.

Getting the two netminders locked up to short-term deals shouldn’t cost more than a total of around $8MM, something the Hurricanes can easily accommodate with their current cap structure.

Depth Decisions

The Hurricanes have many expiring contracts at the bottom of their lineup – namely Fast and Staal, who both played key roles for the team down the stretch and in the playoffs. Derek Stepan, Mackenzie MacEachern, and Paul Stastny all saw ice too, and Carolina will need to decide which veterans to re-sign and which to cut ties with.

Getting some younger blood in the lineup via free agency in exchange for Stepan and Stastny is likely a wise choice, but Fast and Staal have proven themselves invaluable in depth roles. Without a cap crunch to deal with, the team can (and should) get them signed to mid-length deals, although maybe just two or three years for the 34-year-old Staal.

There’s also the matter of whether or not to qualify Jesse Puljujarvi, their only restricted free agent forward at the NHL level. The 25-year-old can, unfortunately, be declared a bust at this point, registering just three points in 24 combined regular-season and playoff games after a trade from the Edmonton Oilers. He’s due a qualifying offer of $3MM, well above his market value, considering his production last season. Cutting ties is the likely route here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

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Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up.  There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well.  We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Colorado Avalanche.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Bowen Byram – Although injuries once again took a large bite out of Byram’s games played total this season, a solid sophomore campaign cemented the 2019 fourth-overall pick as the third-best defenseman on perhaps the most dynamic ’D’ corps in the league. The 21-year-old bested defense partner Samuel Girard in points per game, average time on ice, and plus-minus this season, although more advanced metrics weren’t kind to either Girard’s or Byram’s defensive impacts this year. With Byram still just 21 years old, a long-term deal seems appetizing to keep his cap hit lower as the Upper Limit rises over the years. However, with a significant injury list that includes multiple concussions, Colorado could very well opt for a two or three-year deal to lower long-term risk. He would again be a restricted free agent upon expiry. While cap space won’t be a huge immediate concern for Colorado with captain Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, they’d still like to have money to spend in free agency to improve their scoring depth. Expect a cap hit in the $4-5MM range on Byram’s next deal, likely around three seasons.

F Alex Newhook – Newhook didn’t meet the lofty expectations set for him in 2022-23 after he was slated as the team’s second-line center heading into opening night. He was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by a player who we’ll mention later on in this piece, and he recorded a marginal 30 points whilst playing in all 82 games this season. The 22-year-old is still showing flashes of his 16th overall billing, so it’s not time to give up hope on him reaching that stage in 2023-24. However, it shouldn’t be an assumption for the second straight season – Colorado is likely to fill out the second-line center spot in free agency, and Newhook’s next cap hit will likely reflect that of bottom-six expectations. Given where Newhook’s at in his development, he’ll likely petition for a short-term deal, setting himself up for a payday from the team once he does reach his ceiling.

F Denis Malgin – Malgin wasn’t anyone you’d expect to see described as a key player at the beginning of this season, but after an early-season move from the Toronto Maple Leafs, he was a capable bottom-six scorer on a team sorely needing offensive acumen at the lower end of their lineup. Scoring 11 goals in just 42 games with Colorado, he finished ninth on the team in goals despite not arriving until close to Christmas. He’s been around the block, playing over 250 NHL games (including a stint in Switzerland that kept him out of the league for two seasons), and is in his final season of RFA eligibility. There likely isn’t much room for growth in Malgin’s game, but Colorado would do well to keep him around on an affordable two-year deal to give themselves some options when building out their third and fourth lines.

Other RFAs: D Wyatt Aamodt, G Justus Annunen, D Nate Clurman, D Ryan Merkley, F Ben Meyers, F Sampo Ranta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F J.T. Compher – Arguably the savior of Colorado’s season, Compher broke out in a big way in 2022-23. He’ll be one of the most desirable free-agent centers in a weak market after playing over 20 minutes a night, recording 17 goals and 52 points in 82 games. The 28-year-old did shift to center almost full-time this year but is still proficient enough on the wing, so if Colorado goes out and signs a Ryan O’Reilly type to sit on the depth chart behind Nathan MacKinnon, it’s not an exclusionary factor to bringing Compher back. He’ll be earning a significant increase on his $3.5MM cap hit, however, likely to the tune of $1MM or $2MM.

F Evan Rodrigues – Another possible returnee, Rodrigues had his best offensive campaign to date in 2022-23. He would’ve set career highs had he played in all 82 games, posting 0.57 points per game (39 in 69). Entrusted with top-six minutes, the 29-year-old gave Colorado stellar value on his one-year, $2MM ’show me’ deal signed last September. He could very easily double his cap hit this offseason, especially if another team pries his services away.

F Lars Eller – Now 34, Eller’s still got what it takes to be the ideal archetype of a veteran bottom-six center. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Washington Capitals, the Dane is on track to hit 1,000 games next season. He’s never been a terribly consistent offensive talent from season to season, but his 23 points in 84 games this year were his lowest total in a full season since 2010-11. He’s best suited for a fourth-line role at this point, a spot Colorado may want to keep open for a younger player in their system. Finances shouldn’t be an issue if they do want to retain him, as he shouldn’t command much more than $1MM this offseason.

D Erik Johnson – The longest-tenured member of the Avalanche organization likely won’t be signing anywhere else this offseason. The 2006 first-overall pick waited until the playoffs to score his first goal of the season, recording just eight assists in 63 regular-season games, but Johnson has become one of the most-loved leaders in the Avs room and has stuck through the ups and downs of the franchise over the past decade-plus. After wrapping up a seven-year, $42MM contract, he could be brought back at league minimum.

Other UFAs: F Andrew Cogliano, F Alex Galchenyuk, F Darren Helm, F Charles Hudon, D Josh Jacobs, D Jack Johnson, G Keith Kinkaid, F Mikhail Maltsev (Group VI UFA), F Matt Nieto

Projected Cap Space

One thing’s for sure – general manager Chris MacFarland will have some room to play, although not for a great reason. Landeskog’s continuing knee issues will keep him out for 2023-24, and while they won’t have their captain on the ice, they’ll be able to repurpose his $7MM cap hit via LTIR. CapFriendly has Colorado slated for just over $20MM in projected pre-season cap space, meaning they’ll have an eight-digit figure to throw around in unrestricted free agency after locking Byram, Newhook, and Malgin up to their deals.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Jets, Bruins, Draft, Flyers, Officiating

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include discussion on Buffalo’s goaltending situation, Philadelphia’s new front office, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from this weekend; there will also be one that runs tomorrow where your question might be answered.

sabres3277: As the Sabres approach the NHL Draft do you think they will address the goaltending position via a trade/free agent to ensure that D. Levi has a veteran partner and mentor? I believe the Sabres need to acquire a solid veteran defenseman to bolster the young defense. Thoughts?

When it comes to the goaltending, I’m a little on the fence.  I think they’d like to do something but there’s a fine needle to thread here.  John Gibson might be available but he has four years left.  I don’t think Buffalo wants to do that.  Connor Hellebuyck is on an expiring deal next season but I don’t believe the Sabres would want to pay the freight of a long-term contract.  Maybe Nashville moves Juuse Saros if they’re going to head into a rebuild but that’s hardly a guarantee.  I don’t see another trade option that makes enough of a difference to matter.

In free agency, Tristan Jarry is out there but he’s not taking a short-term contract in all likelihood unless his market completely tanks.  (And if it does, a pillow deal in Buffalo would actually be pretty intriguing.)  It thins out pretty quickly after that.  Maybe Semyon Varlamov would be of interest with the idea of being a platoon goalie instead of a strict backup and he wouldn’t need a long-term commitment.  He might make the most sense to me to partner with either Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (it wouldn’t shock me if Levi got some run in Rochester where he could start the bulk of the games over Eric Comrie) and he could be an upgrade on what Craig Anderson brought to the table this season.

As for the defenseman, I certainly agree with you.  I had that as one of the items on their Offseason Checklist last weekend.  They have a decent top four that should continue to improve but getting one extra second-pairing-caliber blueliner would be a big hedge against injuries and inconsistency from their youngsters while also letting them balance out the ice time a little bit.  That could pay dividends down the stretch next season.

joebad34: Sabres question: It is obvious V. Olofsson will be on the trading block. His upside is 25-30 potential goals. His downside is business decisions heading into corners; that being said, can he be moved for a right-shot d-man or just a draft pick or two? What would the value be?

Frankly, I don’t think Victor Olofsson’s trade value is going to be all that high.  Here’s a player in the prime of his career with a strong offensive game…that is seeing his ice time dip each year to the point of being a healthy scratch at times.  This is called not moving Olofsson at his high point in value, especially when he carries a $4.75MM cap charge.

Quality right-shot defenders are in short supply in high demand.  Wingers with a decent scoring touch but some warts in their all-around game are in much greater supply and much lower demand.  If Buffalo was to get a quality right-shot defender in a trade here, it’d be surprising unless Olofsson is merely salary ballast with the Sabres sending out a strong pick and/or prospect in the deal as well.  As for moving him for draft picks?  I don’t see that happening; a team with $4.75MM in cap space is likely to decide that they’d be better off spending that on a free agent than trading assets for Olofsson unless it was a later-round selection which wouldn’t be a great return for him by any stretch.

If the Sabres decide that they need to move on from Olofsson, I think the likeliest scenario is a swap of ‘change of scenery’ players.  They’d get someone else on an expiring contract at a similar price tag with the hope that the other player will fit in better than Buffalo and Olofsson will do better with the other team.  I don’t think he has much more value than that in this cap-strapped marketplace.

rdiddy75: Do the Jets get rid of trio of Dubois, Scheifele, and Wheeler and retool the team?

It certainly feels like they need to do something, doesn’t it?  The way they went out in the playoffs followed by Rick Bowness’ pointed comments would seem to suggest they can’t just run it back.  But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made it known that he believes in this core group and seemingly indicated in his press conference that as long as they get to the playoffs, they’ve accomplished something.  (At least, that was one of my takeaways from his comments.)

With that in mind, I don’t think the Jets are going to choose to blow up the core just yet.  I suspect they’re willing to move on from Blake Wheeler but how much of a trade market is there going to be for him at $8.25MM?  As a small market team, I’m not sure paying him $5.5MM over two years not to play for them is a move they’re going to want to make.  Maybe there’s a swap with them retaining up to half of his contract available but the return still won’t be great.

As for Pierre-Luc Dubois, I think they might hold onto him.  If you’re a team interested in acquiring him, how much are you willing to pay up if you believe there’s a strong chance he tests free agency?  Probably a first-rounder, a decent prospect, and either another pick or salary ballast.  But they can do that deal at the trade deadline where Winnipeg can retain half the contract, allowing the acquiring team to be able to afford another player they’d have had to clear out if they acquiring Dubois now.  Again, it comes back to my belief that Cheveldayoff thinks this core is good enough to be in the mix.  If he can get the same types of offers in February than he can now, why not run it back and hope for a hot start that convinces some pending free agents (even if it’s not Dubois) to re-sign?

Mark Scheifele is an interesting case.  The run-it-back logic for Dubois applies here somewhat although with Scheifele, is he willing to sign a long-term extension this summer with Winnipeg or elsewhere?  If so, that changes the picture.  With the UFA market not being strong, if Scheifele is willing to sign a new deal now, he becomes the top middleman available and Winnipeg should be able to get a significant return, one that would justify moving him now.  But if Cheveldayoff thinks that a strong first half could persuade Scheifele to stay in Winnipeg, it wouldn’t shock me if he holds on to him as well.

Long story short, yes, I think there’s a shakeup coming in Winnipeg and it wouldn’t shock me if none of those players are around a year from now.  I’m just not convinced it’s happening this summer but rather closer to the trade deadline unless they can get a king’s ransom for their two centers in the next six weeks or so.

SkidRowe: 1) If you were the Bruins’ GM, how would you approach the future?

2) The Bruins’ long-term core (three or more years remaining) is Pastrnak, Zacha, Coyle, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo. Is that good enough to rebuild around?

1) What’s the saying, all good things must come to an end?  That’s where things are for Boston.  They don’t have many draft picks, nor do they have a particularly strong prospect pool.  Frankly, that’s to be expected from a team that has tried to contend for this long.  So in the short term, I’d be looking at trying to recover some of those futures.

Matt Grzelcyk and Derek Forbort are on expiring contracts and should have some value.  I talked about in a recent mailbag the hypothetical trade value of Jeremy Swayman but if you’re going to take a short-term step back, maybe it’s Linus Ullmark that they should look to sell high on.  As noted earlier, there isn’t a great free agent market for goaltenders nor are there a lot of viable starters that could be traded for.  Coming off a likely Vezina-winning year, he’d bring back some quality futures as well.  Up front, I’d explore moving Taylor Hall who doesn’t really fit their long-term core plans.  If Jake DeBrusk isn’t part of those long-term plans, he’d be on the sell list too.  Making some of those moves would help free up some cap flexibility to round out the rest of their roster while stockpiling some much-needed futures.

If they had a bit more cap space and a first-round pick in the next couple of years, I could make a case to justify trying to trade for someone like Scheifele and extending him even though it runs counter to everything I just wrote as a key center is something they really need.  If they could get that, do it and figure out the rest later.  However, I don’t think they have the trade assets to do that right now.  But make some of these seller moves and maybe they’ll have a shot at a move like that a year from now.

2) It depends on what you mean by good enough.  Is that the future core of another perennial contender?  Probably not.  For me, the true core would be David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Hampus Lindholm with Swayman (under team control for three more years) part of it if he’s still around next season.  That’s a foundation that should be good enough to hang around the Wild Card mix but they need a true impact center if they want a shot at returning to contender status.

Unclemike1526: With the talent in this year’s draft, I don’t see the possibility of the Hawks trading up far from 19. Maybe a couple of spaces even with four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. How far do you think they can realistically move up? Obviously, they’re not trading Bedard, But I’m sure they would love to move up from 19. Barring that, who are some guys they could use those picks to trade for players already in the NHL, that they might like?

It has gotten awfully difficult to trade up lately, especially last year where the only pick swap in the first round was 11 for 27, 34, and 45 with San Jose deciding that they were better off with adding some extra picks to a prospect pool that isn’t the deepest.  That was in a weak draft.  In a strong one, I could see teams being more protective of those early selections.  If Chicago wanted to move up a few spots, I think there’s a way to do it that would get them to somewhere between 14-18 but it would be dependent on one of those teams losing out on the player that they were hoping to get.  Every year, we hear GMs talk about how they were trying to trade up (or back into the late first round) and just couldn’t find anyone willing to do so.  That could very well happen here.

Honestly, I’m not sure that their best asset to try to move up is their extra picks.  Instead, I think their cap space could be.  For example, Pittsburgh (at 14) is a team that could benefit from creating some cap room.  If the Blackhawks were willing to take on Mikael Granlund’s remaining two years, for example, would that be good enough for the Penguins to slide down to 19; is the extra cap space worth dropping down?  I suppose Calgary at 16 could be an option as well as they’re quite capped out although there isn’t an obvious contract to fit into a framework like this.  Vancouver at 11 could be a possibility as well although Chicago would probably have to take a sizable deal back for the Canucks to slide eight spots.

As for flipping those second-rounders for players, there are too many players to list.  With so many teams being tight to the cap, they could get some good players if they wanted to flip those picks.  I just don’t think they’re intending to do that.  Getting the top pick isn’t going to flip the switch and end the rebuild.  They’re not a player or two away from being a playoff contender so why deviate from the course now?  Get those prospects in the system and then when they are ready to start adding to their roster again, they can deal from their picks or their prospect pool for those players.  I could see Chicago trading out from 55 outright to get a 2024 second-rounder, giving them a possible chip to move for a player at that time if they think they’re ready to flip that switch next offseason.

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Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

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The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup.  It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Calgary.

2022-23 was not the season that the Flames were hoping for.  A roster that underwent some significant changes this summer still bolstered a strong lineup on paper but too many players struggled, resulting in them just missing out on the postseason.  There have already been changes as Brad Treliving opted not to return as GM while Don Maloney, while acting as interim GM, dismissed head coach Darryl Sutter.  Now, they’re on their third GM in six weeks with Craig Conroy taking over this week and he’ll have plenty of work to do this offseason.

Hire A Head Coach

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first.  With Sutter gone, the Flames are once again in need of a new bench boss.  It’s a common theme for Calgary as the last coach to be behind the bench for 200 straight games was Bob Hartley and he was let go back in 2016.  (If you’re curious who the last Calgary coach to coach for 300 straight games in a single stint, you have to go all the way back to the late Bob Johnson in the 1980s.)

Conroy, who has been with the Flames’ front office for 13 years, is familiar with the internal options, of which there are a few.  Associate coach Kirk Muller has experience running an NHL bench back with Carolina while Ryan Huska has been an assistant for the past five seasons and was believed to be a finalist for the job in Detroit last season.  Meanwhile, Mitch Love, their coach at AHL Calgary, has won the Louis AR Pieri Memorial Award as Coach of the Year for the past two seasons, his only two seasons behind the bench.

Externally, the usual candidates are fairly well-known at this point, ranging from veterans like Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette to coaches looking for a second opportunity such as Andrew Brunette and Travis Green, plus first-time hopefuls like Spencer Carbery, Alex Tanguay, and Jay Leach.  Getting back to their offensive underperformance this season, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking for a head coach that’s offensive-minded to help get the most out of their core group and turn that weakness around.

Extension Discussions

During his introductory press conference, Conroy indicated that it “doesn’t make sense” to enter next season with as many potential unrestricted free agents as there currently are.  It’s not as if there are one or two to deal with either; there are seven of some significance.

The most prominent one that Conroy will have to deal with is Elias Lindholm.  The 28-year-old is only one season removed from a 42-goal campaign, plays big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill, and consistently wins faceoffs at an above-average rate.  Lindholm isn’t thought of by all as a number one center but he’d fit that role on quite a few teams.  He has been on a team-friendly $4.85MM for the last five years with one more season to go.  It’s safe to say he’ll be getting several million more on this next contract, one that has a good chance to be a max-term agreement as well.  There are plenty of teams that would love to add Lindholm this summer in a weak UFA market so if Lindholm expresses a desire either to test free agency in 2024 or indicates that he’s likely to move on, Conroy might opt to move him quickly.

Two other forwards that need to be looked at are long-time center Mikael Backlund and winger Tyler Toffoli.  Both players are coming off career years offensively which will certainly complicate things.  Backlund will hit the market next year at the age of 35 and there will be questions as to how much longer he can play a top-six role which will go a long way toward determining his next salary.  He’s currently on a $5.35MM deal and if Backlund thinks he has another strong year or two offensively in him, he could be looking for a small raise.  As for Toffoli, he has fit in quite well since being acquired last season and has reached 20 goals seven times in the last nine years, averaging 27 over the last three.  His AAV is $4.25MM on a deal that looked to be a bargain from the day he signed it and he could push to land closer to $6MM on a new multi-year agreement.

On the back end, no fewer than four regulars can test the market in 2024, headlined by Noah Hanifin.  Aside from 2021-22, his offense has never really stood out but even so, he can log heavy minutes and will be in the prime of his career that year at 27.  He’s at $4.85MM now and a long-term extension should see him net more than teammate Mackenzie Weegar ($6.5MM) to once again become their top-paid defender.  If he’s not willing to re-sign and he’s put on the trade block, Conroy will have no shortage of interest.

The other three rearguards aren’t as significant of a concern.  Chris Tanev is an effective shutdown defender but his market might not be as strong next year with teams starting to shy away from those stay-at-home players which could move his cost below his current $4.5MM price tag.  Nikita Zadorov has been year-to-year for the most part for several seasons (2023-24 being the lone exception) so there isn’t a ton of risk having him in a walk year while Oliver Kylington will be returning after a year off; he’ll need time to show if his 2021-22 performance was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

Suffice it to say, with this many notable players eligible for extensions as of July 1st, expect Conroy to be reaching out to the agents of those players soon if he hasn’t already done so.

Add Top-Six Forward

This was a stated goal by Conroy in his press conference and with the team finishing in the bottom half of the league in goals scored, it makes sense.  While there is legitimate room for optimism that there should be some bounce-back performances under a new head coach (I don’t think anyone expects another 55-point effort from Jonathan Huberdeau after being over a point per game for four seasons in a row), simply running it back with this exact core would also be risky.

To that end, Conroy also indicated that he was likely to move a core piece out.  This also makes some sense considering his comments about the 2024 UFA class as there’s a good chance that not all of those players will want to re-sign this summer; if Conroy wants to avoid the risk of another Johnny Gaudreau situation, it could be those unwilling to extend now that move.  Speculatively, Andrew Mangiapane – signed for two more years at a $5.8MM cap charge – could be someone they look to move in a player-for-player swap.

Create Cap Space

It’s one thing for Conroy to want to add a top-six piece but it’s another to be able to afford to do it.  Frankly, they can’t afford one with over $82MM on the books already, per CapFriendly, with a few roster spots to fill.  With the Upper Limit projected to be at or close to $83.5MM next season, that’s not exactly a workable scenario.  That’s why it makes sense for their top-six addition up front to come at the expense of one of their 2024 UFA class as frankly, they can’t afford one otherwise.

That possible move notwithstanding, Conroy will need to free up a few million more in cap space.  One way to chip away at that would be to move backup goaltender Daniel Vladar who will begin his new two-year deal next season at a $2.2MM price tag.  Going to a cheaper second-stringer or promoting prospect Dustin Wolf would free up a little over $1MM, enough to fill at least one of those remaining roster spots.

Another spot could be to chip away at the back end which, with Kylington’s return, will cost them over $27.25MM, putting them near the top of the league in spending at that position.  Trying to move out someone like Zadorov for a cheaper option or for a future asset would certainly help free up some wiggle room.  Accordingly, as much as Conroy will be looking to add this summer, he almost certainly is going to need to subtract from it as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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