Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Looking At Five 2023 Non-Qualified UFA Targets

June 30, 2023 at 9:07 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 9 Comments

The 2023 unrestricted free agent class may be disappointing, especially with some high-profile names like Stanley Cup champions Ivan Barbashev and Adin Hill coming off the board in recent days. However, the market did get a bit of a boost in the last 24 hours thanks to a slew of buyouts and the qualifying offer deadline, which saw over 100 restricted free agents get released by their teams to unrestricted status tomorrow. With that being said, it’s time to take a look at some of the more intriguing targets now available for teams to sign.

Each player’s former team is listed in parentheses. You can find the full list of RFAs that went unqualified here.

D Ethan Bear (VAN)

The summer will likely end with Bear re-signing in Vancouver, but there’s nothing stopping him from heading elsewhere if a team comes calling. He could last a bit into the summer as he recovers from a shoulder injury sustained while playing at the IIHF Men’s World Championship, though.

After not really finding a role in the Carolina Hurricanes lineup, Bear had a very solid season with the Canucks, posting 16 points in 61 games and providing high-end two-way play for a team that desperately needed it. Add in the fact he’s a right shot and still only 26 years old, and he makes for a rather appealing target that would have landed on our top 50 unrestricted free agents list for 2023.

He’s likely to earn a two-to-three-year deal, probably slightly under his $2.2MM qualifying offer. If so, all signs point to it being one of the better value signings of a summer poised to see some overpayments out of need in a weak UFA class.

F Denis Gurianov (MTL)

Things have been downhill for the 2015 12th overall pick since he logged 20 goals in his rookie season, a feat he hasn’t matched since. After sliding back out of a consistent top-nine role with the Dallas Stars, he was dealt to the Montreal Canadiens at the deadline in exchange for Evgenii Dadonov, a move that may have paid dividends for both sides. Gurianov did show a bit of a resurgence with the Habs, scoring five goals and eight points in 23 games, looking more engaged than he did with the Stars. The Habs will likely attempt to get a deal done here, but he wasn’t worth the $2.9MM qualifying offer he was due.

This is not a case of analytics suggesting a breakout, though, in fact, it’s the opposite. There are red flags nearly everywhere in his profile, suggesting he’s a liability in isolation. There is still some obvious raw skill with Gurianov, though, and for a cheap cost, he could put up some higher point totals with picture-perfect chemistry. It remains to be seen whether he’ll ever find that.

D Caleb Jones (CHI)

The counting stats here aren’t the prettiest, but advanced metrics have long tabbed Jones as an effective player for his role. Last season, Jones’ -19 rating may not have been pretty, but he also logged nearly 20 minutes a night on a lottery team. In fact, Jones logged a career-high relative Corsi for percentage at even strength of 4.8%, and his 16 points in 73 games were a career-high.

He’ll never break the bank offensively from the blue line, nor should you expect him to, but he’s got an underrated ability to drive play and proved this season he can take on more serious minutes against tougher competition. Add in the fact he can play both the left and right side, and he should be quite a good value signing for a team looking to bolster their third pair (or potentially second).

At 26, though, Jones was nearing retirement age on a very youthful Chicago blueline, and they decided to cut ties to make room for more of their future talent. He shouldn’t cost much more than $2MM on a one-year offer.

F Daniel Sprong (SEA)

Sprong easily jumps out as the most tantalizing target here. Quickly overtaking Dale Weise for the “Dutch Gretzky” title (sorry, Canadiens fans), Sprong has grown into one of the most efficient per-minute scorers in the league. He’s notched at least 13 goals in four of the last five seasons, never averaging more than 13 minutes per game – in fact, he scored 21 goals (and 46 points) in just 66 games with the Kraken this year despite staying squarely in a fourth-line role, averaging 11:25 per game. He was 17th in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes this season among skaters with at least 25 games.

With that, he’s set himself up for more ice time and more money. He was eligible for arbitration and likely would’ve garnered a rich reward for his production – a number Seattle didn’t want to pay. That doesn’t mean another team won’t, although an underwhelming playoff performance may scare some teams off. For a fringe team looking to add a high-octane option to its top nine, though, look no further than the 26-year-old Sprong.

He could very well command above the $3MM mark on a short-term but multi-year deal, especially from a team slated toward the bottom of the league standings. He jumps out as an attractive option for teams like the Arizona Coyotes, who could bank on Sprong’s production maintaining (or even increasing) with a slight bump in minutes, parlaying it into a valuable trade at next year’s deadline. Signing him to a two- or three-year deal with cost certainty as the salary cap rises would only add to his trade value.

F Sam Steel (MIN)

Steel is the only unqualified RFA who can say they were a number-one center last year. However, it was by necessity – with the Minnesota Wild needing Joel Eriksson Ek to round out their top-six on their second line, it was an in-and-out swap all year between Steel and Ryan Hartman between their pair of star wings in Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello. Steel did have a career-high 10 goals and 28 points in 65 games, but you’d expect more for someone who spent over 350 minutes with Kaprizov and Zuccarello this season – especially from a former first-round pick.

That being said, you could do worse for a third-line center. Steel isn’t a liability defensively, and while he may not be able to translate his offensive acumen to the scoresheet in the NHL, he won’t take points away from those around him and can survive as a complementary player.

Still, with uninspiring production in Minnesota, he wasn’t a candidate to stick around, as the team needs every dollar available to them to stay in playoff contention. He’s flashed the least upside at the NHL level of any of the five players listed, although he does carry some certainty in terms of his defensive impacts and offensive production that others here don’t offer.

Other targets to watch: F Nathan Bastian (NJD), G Mackenzie Blackwood (SJS), F Max Comtois (ANA), F Morgan Geekie (SEA), F Tyson Jost (BUF), F Klim Kostin (DET), F Denis Malgin (COL), F Michael McLeod (NJD), F Jesse Puljujarvi (CAR)

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: Carolina Hurricanes

June 23, 2023 at 3:06 pm CDT | by Josh Erickson 3 Comments

The offseason is now fully underway after Vegas took home the Stanley Cup which means that it’s time to examine what each team will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Carolina.

No one would have faulted the Carolina Hurricanes for a second-round exit after losing Andrei Svechnikov, Max Pacioretty, and Teuvo Teravainen to injuries. Instead, some miracle performances from depth players vaulted them into the Eastern Conference Final – before promptly getting swept by the Florida Panthers. While they were up against a Vezina-caliber netminder in Sergei Bobrovsky playing some of the best hockey in his life, the Hurricanes still scored just six goals in four Conference Final games, igniting an all-too-familiar refrain among their recent playoff exits. General manager Don Waddell enters the offseason with a crystal-clear priority: improve the team’s scoring ability. They have the cap space to do so.

Sign A Second-Line Center

Let’s make one thing clear – this is not a knock on Jesperi Kotkaniemi.

He produced the way a player getting paid his $4.82MM cap hit should. The 22-year-old Finn still has some room to grow and notched a career-high 18 goals and 43 points while putting together some solid defensive hockey. He looked overmatched at times during the postseason, though, and perhaps he’s best slotted in the Hurricanes lineup as a high-end third-line center, allowing them to bump competent veteran Jordan Staal down to fourth-line minutes. With a solid top-four wing core of Svechinkov, Teravainen, Martin Necas, and Seth Jarvis, the most glaring hole in terms of offense on the team’s top two lines is at center.

There are a handful of solid options in free agency that provide a bit more offensive ceiling, especially if they’re playing with Necas. Carolina has $24MM in cap space this offseason, per CapFriendly, a number that should be around $15-18MM after figuring out their goalie situation (more on that later). Throw in another $10MM to replace (or re-sign) players like Staal and Jesper Fast, and the team should be able to throw around at least $5MM per season to a second-line center.

Could Ryan O’Reilly provide a veteran presence and added offensive punch with a speedy Necas? What about the minute-munching J.T. Compher if he doesn’t reach an extension with the Colorado Avalanche? Max Domi could be a solid option, too, although he’s less of a sure thing given his offensive inconsistencies throughout his career.

Trade Or Extend Pesce

The Hurricanes have a pair of key unrestricted free agents up in front in 2024 in Teravainen and Sebastian Aho, but there’s not much concern about the team’s ability to get them locked into extensions. On defense, though, their second pairing of Brady Skjei and Brett Pesce are both destined for UFA status a year from now, and rumors have been churning about Carolina’s ability to get Pesce locked down to a long-term deal.

If they get through the next few weeks without much confidence in getting Pesce extended, he’ll likely be moved. There’s been a fair bit of trade chatter already, but with former teammate Noah Hanifin likely also on the trade block, Pesce’s value will likely only rise as teams look for an elite right-shot shutdown defender on the open market. The 28-year-old averaged 22 minutes a game this season against tough competition and still managed to produce well on the scoresheet, too, recording 30 points in all 82 games.

He would net Carolina a first-round pick at minimum, adding to a prospect pool that’s already much stronger than it should be, thanks to a large amount of high-value picks in recent years from Waddell. Trading him would also free up some more cap space to add on offense while still permitting them to sign a decent replacement for Pesce on the open market.

That’s not to say Carolina shouldn’t make any effort to get a deal done here – he’s a spectacular player who’s been a large part of their success in recent seasons. If there just isn’t anything to be had there, though, it’s not the end of the world.

Re-Sign Netminders

Collectively, Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta didn’t have the best regular seasons. Andersen’s save percentage dipped to .903 after recording a .922 mark in 2021-22, while Raanta’s decline was much less exaggerated (.912 in 2021-22, .910 in 2022-23).

Andersen put all that behind him in the playoffs, though, recording a .927 save percentage in nine starts, outmatched only by Bobrovsky in the Eastern Conference. The 33-year-old should be a top priority for the Hurricanes to be back, even with young Pyotr Kochetkov waiting in the wings and vying for a full-time NHL spot.

Both he and Raanta are quite injury-prone, and it’s something that’s handcuffed the team at times. Luckily for them, Kochetkov has come in handy – and it’s why the three-goalie model should be used for another season. Re-signing both Andersen and Raanta gives Carolina perhaps the best goaltending safety net in the league, ensuring they’ll have a quality option with NHL experience ready to go, especially if both Andersen and Raanta are unavailable at times heading into the postseason.

Getting the two netminders locked up to short-term deals shouldn’t cost more than a total of around $8MM, something the Hurricanes can easily accommodate with their current cap structure.

Depth Decisions

The Hurricanes have many expiring contracts at the bottom of their lineup – namely Fast and Staal, who both played key roles for the team down the stretch and in the playoffs. Derek Stepan, Mackenzie MacEachern, and Paul Stastny all saw ice too, and Carolina will need to decide which veterans to re-sign and which to cut ties with.

Getting some younger blood in the lineup via free agency in exchange for Stepan and Stastny is likely a wise choice, but Fast and Staal have proven themselves invaluable in depth roles. Without a cap crunch to deal with, the team can (and should) get them signed to mid-length deals, although maybe just two or three years for the 34-year-old Staal.

There’s also the matter of whether or not to qualify Jesse Puljujarvi, their only restricted free agent forward at the NHL level. The 25-year-old can, unfortunately, be declared a bust at this point, registering just three points in 24 combined regular-season and playoff games after a trade from the Edmonton Oilers. He’s due a qualifying offer of $3MM, well above his market value, considering his production last season. Cutting ties is the likely route here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Free Agent Focus: Colorado Avalanche

May 29, 2023 at 11:05 am CDT | by Josh Erickson 1 Comment

Free agency is now a little more than a month away and teams are looking ahead to when it opens up. There will be several impact players set to hit the open market in July while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign as well. We continue our look around the NHL with an overview of the free agent situation for the Colorado Avalanche.

Key Restricted Free Agents

D Bowen Byram – Although injuries once again took a large bite out of Byram’s games played total this season, a solid sophomore campaign cemented the 2019 fourth-overall pick as the third-best defenseman on perhaps the most dynamic ’D’ corps in the league. The 21-year-old bested defense partner Samuel Girard in points per game, average time on ice, and plus-minus this season, although more advanced metrics weren’t kind to either Girard’s or Byram’s defensive impacts this year. With Byram still just 21 years old, a long-term deal seems appetizing to keep his cap hit lower as the Upper Limit rises over the years. However, with a significant injury list that includes multiple concussions, Colorado could very well opt for a two or three-year deal to lower long-term risk. He would again be a restricted free agent upon expiry. While cap space won’t be a huge immediate concern for Colorado with captain Gabriel Landeskog’s injury, they’d still like to have money to spend in free agency to improve their scoring depth. Expect a cap hit in the $4-5MM range on Byram’s next deal, likely around three seasons.

F Alex Newhook – Newhook didn’t meet the lofty expectations set for him in 2022-23 after he was slated as the team’s second-line center heading into opening night. He was quickly surpassed on the depth chart by a player who we’ll mention later on in this piece, and he recorded a marginal 30 points whilst playing in all 82 games this season. The 22-year-old is still showing flashes of his 16th overall billing, so it’s not time to give up hope on him reaching that stage in 2023-24. However, it shouldn’t be an assumption for the second straight season – Colorado is likely to fill out the second-line center spot in free agency, and Newhook’s next cap hit will likely reflect that of bottom-six expectations. Given where Newhook’s at in his development, he’ll likely petition for a short-term deal, setting himself up for a payday from the team once he does reach his ceiling.

F Denis Malgin – Malgin wasn’t anyone you’d expect to see described as a key player at the beginning of this season, but after an early-season move from the Toronto Maple Leafs, he was a capable bottom-six scorer on a team sorely needing offensive acumen at the lower end of their lineup. Scoring 11 goals in just 42 games with Colorado, he finished ninth on the team in goals despite not arriving until close to Christmas. He’s been around the block, playing over 250 NHL games (including a stint in Switzerland that kept him out of the league for two seasons), and is in his final season of RFA eligibility. There likely isn’t much room for growth in Malgin’s game, but Colorado would do well to keep him around on an affordable two-year deal to give themselves some options when building out their third and fourth lines.

Other RFAs: D Wyatt Aamodt, G Justus Annunen, D Nate Clurman, D Ryan Merkley, F Ben Meyers, F Sampo Ranta

Key Unrestricted Free Agents

F J.T. Compher – Arguably the savior of Colorado’s season, Compher broke out in a big way in 2022-23. He’ll be one of the most desirable free-agent centers in a weak market after playing over 20 minutes a night, recording 17 goals and 52 points in 82 games. The 28-year-old did shift to center almost full-time this year but is still proficient enough on the wing, so if Colorado goes out and signs a Ryan O’Reilly type to sit on the depth chart behind Nathan MacKinnon, it’s not an exclusionary factor to bringing Compher back. He’ll be earning a significant increase on his $3.5MM cap hit, however, likely to the tune of $1MM or $2MM.

F Evan Rodrigues – Another possible returnee, Rodrigues had his best offensive campaign to date in 2022-23. He would’ve set career highs had he played in all 82 games, posting 0.57 points per game (39 in 69). Entrusted with top-six minutes, the 29-year-old gave Colorado stellar value on his one-year, $2MM ’show me’ deal signed last September. He could very easily double his cap hit this offseason, especially if another team pries his services away.

F Lars Eller – Now 34, Eller’s still got what it takes to be the ideal archetype of a veteran bottom-six center. Acquired at the trade deadline from the Washington Capitals, the Dane is on track to hit 1,000 games next season. He’s never been a terribly consistent offensive talent from season to season, but his 23 points in 84 games this year were his lowest total in a full season since 2010-11. He’s best suited for a fourth-line role at this point, a spot Colorado may want to keep open for a younger player in their system. Finances shouldn’t be an issue if they do want to retain him, as he shouldn’t command much more than $1MM this offseason.

D Erik Johnson – The longest-tenured member of the Avalanche organization likely won’t be signing anywhere else this offseason. The 2006 first-overall pick waited until the playoffs to score his first goal of the season, recording just eight assists in 63 regular-season games, but Johnson has become one of the most-loved leaders in the Avs room and has stuck through the ups and downs of the franchise over the past decade-plus. After wrapping up a seven-year, $42MM contract, he could be brought back at league minimum.

Other UFAs: F Andrew Cogliano, F Alex Galchenyuk, F Darren Helm, F Charles Hudon, D Josh Jacobs, D Jack Johnson, G Keith Kinkaid, F Mikhail Maltsev (Group VI UFA), F Matt Nieto

Projected Cap Space

One thing’s for sure – general manager Chris MacFarland will have some room to play, although not for a great reason. Landeskog’s continuing knee issues will keep him out for 2023-24, and while they won’t have their captain on the ice, they’ll be able to repurpose his $7MM cap hit via LTIR. CapFriendly has Colorado slated for just over $20MM in projected pre-season cap space, meaning they’ll have an eight-digit figure to throw around in unrestricted free agency after locking Byram, Newhook, and Malgin up to their deals.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images. Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

PHR Mailbag: Sabres, Jets, Bruins, Draft, Flyers, Officiating

May 27, 2023 at 2:37 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 7 Comments

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include discussion on Buffalo’s goaltending situation, Philadelphia’s new front office, and much more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in our mailbag from this weekend; there will also be one that runs tomorrow where your question might be answered.

sabres3277: As the Sabres approach the NHL Draft do you think they will address the goaltending position via a trade/free agent to ensure that D. Levi has a veteran partner and mentor? I believe the Sabres need to acquire a solid veteran defenseman to bolster the young defense. Thoughts?

When it comes to the goaltending, I’m a little on the fence. I think they’d like to do something but there’s a fine needle to thread here. John Gibson might be available but he has four years left. I don’t think Buffalo wants to do that. Connor Hellebuyck is on an expiring deal next season but I don’t believe the Sabres would want to pay the freight of a long-term contract. Maybe Nashville moves Juuse Saros if they’re going to head into a rebuild but that’s hardly a guarantee. I don’t see another trade option that makes enough of a difference to matter.

In free agency, Tristan Jarry is out there but he’s not taking a short-term contract in all likelihood unless his market completely tanks. (And if it does, a pillow deal in Buffalo would actually be pretty intriguing.) It thins out pretty quickly after that. Maybe Semyon Varlamov would be of interest with the idea of being a platoon goalie instead of a strict backup and he wouldn’t need a long-term commitment. He might make the most sense to me to partner with either Devon Levi or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (it wouldn’t shock me if Levi got some run in Rochester where he could start the bulk of the games over Eric Comrie) and he could be an upgrade on what Craig Anderson brought to the table this season.

As for the defenseman, I certainly agree with you. I had that as one of the items on their Offseason Checklist last weekend. They have a decent top four that should continue to improve but getting one extra second-pairing-caliber blueliner would be a big hedge against injuries and inconsistency from their youngsters while also letting them balance out the ice time a little bit. That could pay dividends down the stretch next season.

joebad34: Sabres question: It is obvious V. Olofsson will be on the trading block. His upside is 25-30 potential goals. His downside is business decisions heading into corners; that being said, can he be moved for a right-shot d-man or just a draft pick or two? What would the value be?

Frankly, I don’t think Victor Olofsson’s trade value is going to be all that high. Here’s a player in the prime of his career with a strong offensive game…that is seeing his ice time dip each year to the point of being a healthy scratch at times. This is called not moving Olofsson at his high point in value, especially when he carries a $4.75MM cap charge.

Quality right-shot defenders are in short supply in high demand. Wingers with a decent scoring touch but some warts in their all-around game are in much greater supply and much lower demand. If Buffalo was to get a quality right-shot defender in a trade here, it’d be surprising unless Olofsson is merely salary ballast with the Sabres sending out a strong pick and/or prospect in the deal as well. As for moving him for draft picks? I don’t see that happening; a team with $4.75MM in cap space is likely to decide that they’d be better off spending that on a free agent than trading assets for Olofsson unless it was a later-round selection which wouldn’t be a great return for him by any stretch.

If the Sabres decide that they need to move on from Olofsson, I think the likeliest scenario is a swap of ‘change of scenery’ players. They’d get someone else on an expiring contract at a similar price tag with the hope that the other player will fit in better than Buffalo and Olofsson will do better with the other team. I don’t think he has much more value than that in this cap-strapped marketplace.

rdiddy75: Do the Jets get rid of trio of Dubois, Scheifele, and Wheeler and retool the team?

It certainly feels like they need to do something, doesn’t it? The way they went out in the playoffs followed by Rick Bowness’ pointed comments would seem to suggest they can’t just run it back. But GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made it known that he believes in this core group and seemingly indicated in his press conference that as long as they get to the playoffs, they’ve accomplished something. (At least, that was one of my takeaways from his comments.)

With that in mind, I don’t think the Jets are going to choose to blow up the core just yet. I suspect they’re willing to move on from Blake Wheeler but how much of a trade market is there going to be for him at $8.25MM? As a small market team, I’m not sure paying him $5.5MM over two years not to play for them is a move they’re going to want to make. Maybe there’s a swap with them retaining up to half of his contract available but the return still won’t be great.

As for Pierre-Luc Dubois, I think they might hold onto him. If you’re a team interested in acquiring him, how much are you willing to pay up if you believe there’s a strong chance he tests free agency? Probably a first-rounder, a decent prospect, and either another pick or salary ballast. But they can do that deal at the trade deadline where Winnipeg can retain half the contract, allowing the acquiring team to be able to afford another player they’d have had to clear out if they acquiring Dubois now. Again, it comes back to my belief that Cheveldayoff thinks this core is good enough to be in the mix. If he can get the same types of offers in February than he can now, why not run it back and hope for a hot start that convinces some pending free agents (even if it’s not Dubois) to re-sign?

Mark Scheifele is an interesting case. The run-it-back logic for Dubois applies here somewhat although with Scheifele, is he willing to sign a long-term extension this summer with Winnipeg or elsewhere? If so, that changes the picture. With the UFA market not being strong, if Scheifele is willing to sign a new deal now, he becomes the top middleman available and Winnipeg should be able to get a significant return, one that would justify moving him now. But if Cheveldayoff thinks that a strong first half could persuade Scheifele to stay in Winnipeg, it wouldn’t shock me if he holds on to him as well.

Long story short, yes, I think there’s a shakeup coming in Winnipeg and it wouldn’t shock me if none of those players are around a year from now. I’m just not convinced it’s happening this summer but rather closer to the trade deadline unless they can get a king’s ransom for their two centers in the next six weeks or so.

SkidRowe: 1) If you were the Bruins’ GM, how would you approach the future?

2) The Bruins’ long-term core (three or more years remaining) is Pastrnak, Zacha, Coyle, McAvoy, Lindholm, Carlo. Is that good enough to rebuild around?

1) What’s the saying, all good things must come to an end? That’s where things are for Boston. They don’t have many draft picks, nor do they have a particularly strong prospect pool. Frankly, that’s to be expected from a team that has tried to contend for this long. So in the short term, I’d be looking at trying to recover some of those futures.

Matt Grzelcyk and Derek Forbort are on expiring contracts and should have some value. I talked about in a recent mailbag the hypothetical trade value of Jeremy Swayman but if you’re going to take a short-term step back, maybe it’s Linus Ullmark that they should look to sell high on. As noted earlier, there isn’t a great free agent market for goaltenders nor are there a lot of viable starters that could be traded for. Coming off a likely Vezina-winning year, he’d bring back some quality futures as well. Up front, I’d explore moving Taylor Hall who doesn’t really fit their long-term core plans. If Jake DeBrusk isn’t part of those long-term plans, he’d be on the sell list too. Making some of those moves would help free up some cap flexibility to round out the rest of their roster while stockpiling some much-needed futures.

If they had a bit more cap space and a first-round pick in the next couple of years, I could make a case to justify trying to trade for someone like Scheifele and extending him even though it runs counter to everything I just wrote as a key center is something they really need. If they could get that, do it and figure out the rest later. However, I don’t think they have the trade assets to do that right now. But make some of these seller moves and maybe they’ll have a shot at a move like that a year from now.

2) It depends on what you mean by good enough. Is that the future core of another perennial contender? Probably not. For me, the true core would be David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy, and Hampus Lindholm with Swayman (under team control for three more years) part of it if he’s still around next season. That’s a foundation that should be good enough to hang around the Wild Card mix but they need a true impact center if they want a shot at returning to contender status.

Unclemike1526: With the talent in this year’s draft, I don’t see the possibility of the Hawks trading up far from 19. Maybe a couple of spaces even with four 2nd rounders and two 3rd rounders. How far do you think they can realistically move up? Obviously, they’re not trading Bedard, But I’m sure they would love to move up from 19. Barring that, who are some guys they could use those picks to trade for players already in the NHL, that they might like?

It has gotten awfully difficult to trade up lately, especially last year where the only pick swap in the first round was 11 for 27, 34, and 45 with San Jose deciding that they were better off with adding some extra picks to a prospect pool that isn’t the deepest. That was in a weak draft. In a strong one, I could see teams being more protective of those early selections. If Chicago wanted to move up a few spots, I think there’s a way to do it that would get them to somewhere between 14-18 but it would be dependent on one of those teams losing out on the player that they were hoping to get. Every year, we hear GMs talk about how they were trying to trade up (or back into the late first round) and just couldn’t find anyone willing to do so. That could very well happen here.

Honestly, I’m not sure that their best asset to try to move up is their extra picks. Instead, I think their cap space could be. For example, Pittsburgh (at 14) is a team that could benefit from creating some cap room. If the Blackhawks were willing to take on Mikael Granlund’s remaining two years, for example, would that be good enough for the Penguins to slide down to 19; is the extra cap space worth dropping down? I suppose Calgary at 16 could be an option as well as they’re quite capped out although there isn’t an obvious contract to fit into a framework like this. Vancouver at 11 could be a possibility as well although Chicago would probably have to take a sizable deal back for the Canucks to slide eight spots.

As for flipping those second-rounders for players, there are too many players to list. With so many teams being tight to the cap, they could get some good players if they wanted to flip those picks. I just don’t think they’re intending to do that. Getting the top pick isn’t going to flip the switch and end the rebuild. They’re not a player or two away from being a playoff contender so why deviate from the course now? Get those prospects in the system and then when they are ready to start adding to their roster again, they can deal from their picks or their prospect pool for those players. I could see Chicago trading out from 55 outright to get a 2024 second-rounder, giving them a possible chip to move for a player at that time if they think they’re ready to flip that switch next offseason.

Black Ace57: What do you make of the Flyers’ new front office approach? I personally think Briere and Jones will do a good job helping rebuild the Flyers brand, but what are the chances of power struggles between the FO and Tortorella with this setup?

I wasn’t a big fan of the Keith Jones hiring, to be honest. If you’re going to go with a first-time GM as they did in Daniel Briere, having someone with legitimate front office experience to go with him seemed like something they should have been looking for. Granted, Jones knows the Philadelphia market better than any other external candidate that would have been considered and that counts for something, especially from a marketing standpoint. But he doesn’t have a real background in contract negotiation, agent relations, etc. They’re going to need an experienced assistant GM to help fill some of those gaps.

I don’t think there’s going to be much of a power struggle, to be honest. John Tortorella knows that he doesn’t have a lot of years left in this league, that’s just a reality of a veteran coach nowadays. If he tries to go over Briere’s head when there’s a disagreement on personnel moves, I’d think the franchise would side with the up-and-comer and Tortorella would be out of a job. I don’t mind the idea of him having some say. All coaches do to an extent and Tortorella has been around long enough that he knows a lot of players and can help fill in some gaps with an inexperienced front office. As I noted with Jones, this isn’t the exact route I’d have gone if it were up to me but I think it’ll work out well enough.

FearTheWilson: I’ve been a diehard hockey fan since I saw my 1st hockey game in 1992. I’ve never lived in one place long enough to ever like one team more than another. I just love the game and everything about it. It’s the greatest sport on earth by far and the playoffs are so intense that if you can’t enjoy them, I can’t even respect you. That said, I’m done watching. It used to be the best team wins. Now it comes down to which team gets the benefit of the refs’ horrible calls. I understand that the game is played at an extremely high pace and human error is unavoidable. Bad calls happen and it’s just part of the game. But these officials get worse every year. The refs miss so many obvious calls yet they’re so quick to call the softest infraction. They can’t even get the call right after reviewing it on their tablets for 10 minutes. Each linesman calls icing differently. The Department of Player Safety is so clueless its comical. It all blows my mind. The only consistency the officials display is their inconsistency. It’s truly pathetic.

Hockey is a sport with a culture like no other. These guys play through injuries that would send most people to the ER. The softest player in the NHL would still be the toughest player in the MLB, NBA, or MLS. It’s just so sad that a sport as great as this is way too often decided by the flakes in zebra stripes.

I read everyone’s comments about how the refs or the league are against your team. But you’re wrong. The officials are so clueless I’m pretty sure they don’t even know which teams are on the ice. They’re not biased they’re useless!

So my question is… am I wrong?

I won’t bother getting into the usual platitudes as you’ve summed them up nicely already.

To me, the current state of officiating is a by-product of two things. One of them is the improvement in technology where it’s so much easier to see mistakes. As viewers, we have the ability to pause and slow things down with a crystal-clear picture. One network that has regional rights for a few teams has a rotatable camera that can be viewed on a second screen where viewers can even get their own angles, ones that aren’t even available on the broadcast. A generation of officiating ago, you were lucky to get one or two replays if the game happened to be televised and it wasn’t exactly in high definition. Of course more mistakes are going to be found now. To take nothing away from the now-retired officials, I think they made plenty as well, but a lot of them didn’t get noticed.

The other is a trickle-down effect from the change to two referees. If things were still under the old system, half the referees up now would be in the AHL. Those in the AHL would be in the ECHL or major junior, and so forth. Now, by necessity, officials are moving up the ranks quickly to the point where I think some of them are getting into the NHL quicker than they probably should be. This is a job that’s in high demand but clearly isn’t the easiest to fill (and with the grief they get, perhaps not the most desirable at the lower levels either). Some consistently inconsistent referees is the end result.

Unfortunately, I don’t see much of a solution. Hockey isn’t an easy sport to officiate. That’s not a cop-out answer either, that’s just the way it is. There are few black-and-white plays to call during a game; a lot is open to interpretation. Yes, hammering home more of a uniform standard for offside and icing would be nice but I’m pretty sure they’re already trying to do that. But I think these are the best officials available, especially compared to how things are being called at the World Championship where the inconsistency on a game-to-game basis is considerably more noticeable than an NHL contest. This is something where there just isn’t a quick fix.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Calgary Flames

May 27, 2023 at 11:40 am CDT | by Brian La Rose 9 Comments

The offseason has arrived for all but the three teams that still have a shot at winning the Stanley Cup. It’s time to examine what those eliminated squads will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Calgary.

2022-23 was not the season that the Flames were hoping for. A roster that underwent some significant changes this summer still bolstered a strong lineup on paper but too many players struggled, resulting in them just missing out on the postseason. There have already been changes as Brad Treliving opted not to return as GM while Don Maloney, while acting as interim GM, dismissed head coach Darryl Sutter. Now, they’re on their third GM in six weeks with Craig Conroy taking over this week and he’ll have plenty of work to do this offseason.

Hire A Head Coach

Let’s get the obvious one out of the way first. With Sutter gone, the Flames are once again in need of a new bench boss. It’s a common theme for Calgary as the last coach to be behind the bench for 200 straight games was Bob Hartley and he was let go back in 2016. (If you’re curious who the last Calgary coach to coach for 300 straight games in a single stint, you have to go all the way back to the late Bob Johnson in the 1980s.)

Conroy, who has been with the Flames’ front office for 13 years, is familiar with the internal options, of which there are a few. Associate coach Kirk Muller has experience running an NHL bench back with Carolina while Ryan Huska has been an assistant for the past five seasons and was believed to be a finalist for the job in Detroit last season. Meanwhile, Mitch Love, their coach at AHL Calgary, has won the Louis AR Pieri Memorial Award as Coach of the Year for the past two seasons, his only two seasons behind the bench.

Externally, the usual candidates are fairly well-known at this point, ranging from veterans like Gerard Gallant and Peter Laviolette to coaches looking for a second opportunity such as Andrew Brunette and Travis Green, plus first-time hopefuls like Spencer Carbery, Alex Tanguay, and Jay Leach. Getting back to their offensive underperformance this season, it stands to reason that they’ll be looking for a head coach that’s offensive-minded to help get the most out of their core group and turn that weakness around.

Extension Discussions

During his introductory press conference, Conroy indicated that it “doesn’t make sense” to enter next season with as many potential unrestricted free agents as there currently are. It’s not as if there are one or two to deal with either; there are seven of some significance.

The most prominent one that Conroy will have to deal with is Elias Lindholm. The 28-year-old is only one season removed from a 42-goal campaign, plays big minutes on both the power play and penalty kill, and consistently wins faceoffs at an above-average rate. Lindholm isn’t thought of by all as a number one center but he’d fit that role on quite a few teams. He has been on a team-friendly $4.85MM for the last five years with one more season to go. It’s safe to say he’ll be getting several million more on this next contract, one that has a good chance to be a max-term agreement as well. There are plenty of teams that would love to add Lindholm this summer in a weak UFA market so if Lindholm expresses a desire either to test free agency in 2024 or indicates that he’s likely to move on, Conroy might opt to move him quickly.

Two other forwards that need to be looked at are long-time center Mikael Backlund and winger Tyler Toffoli. Both players are coming off career years offensively which will certainly complicate things. Backlund will hit the market next year at the age of 35 and there will be questions as to how much longer he can play a top-six role which will go a long way toward determining his next salary. He’s currently on a $5.35MM deal and if Backlund thinks he has another strong year or two offensively in him, he could be looking for a small raise. As for Toffoli, he has fit in quite well since being acquired last season and has reached 20 goals seven times in the last nine years, averaging 27 over the last three. His AAV is $4.25MM on a deal that looked to be a bargain from the day he signed it and he could push to land closer to $6MM on a new multi-year agreement.

On the back end, no fewer than four regulars can test the market in 2024, headlined by Noah Hanifin. Aside from 2021-22, his offense has never really stood out but even so, he can log heavy minutes and will be in the prime of his career that year at 27. He’s at $4.85MM now and a long-term extension should see him net more than teammate Mackenzie Weegar ($6.5MM) to once again become their top-paid defender. If he’s not willing to re-sign and he’s put on the trade block, Conroy will have no shortage of interest.

The other three rearguards aren’t as significant of a concern. Chris Tanev is an effective shutdown defender but his market might not be as strong next year with teams starting to shy away from those stay-at-home players which could move his cost below his current $4.5MM price tag. Nikita Zadorov has been year-to-year for the most part for several seasons (2023-24 being the lone exception) so there isn’t a ton of risk having him in a walk year while Oliver Kylington will be returning after a year off; he’ll need time to show if his 2021-22 performance was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

Suffice it to say, with this many notable players eligible for extensions as of July 1st, expect Conroy to be reaching out to the agents of those players soon if he hasn’t already done so.

Add Top-Six Forward

This was a stated goal by Conroy in his press conference and with the team finishing in the bottom half of the league in goals scored, it makes sense. While there is legitimate room for optimism that there should be some bounce-back performances under a new head coach (I don’t think anyone expects another 55-point effort from Jonathan Huberdeau after being over a point per game for four seasons in a row), simply running it back with this exact core would also be risky.

To that end, Conroy also indicated that he was likely to move a core piece out. This also makes some sense considering his comments about the 2024 UFA class as there’s a good chance that not all of those players will want to re-sign this summer; if Conroy wants to avoid the risk of another Johnny Gaudreau situation, it could be those unwilling to extend now that move. Speculatively, Andrew Mangiapane – signed for two more years at a $5.8MM cap charge – could be someone they look to move in a player-for-player swap.

Create Cap Space

It’s one thing for Conroy to want to add a top-six piece but it’s another to be able to afford to do it. Frankly, they can’t afford one with over $82MM on the books already, per CapFriendly, with a few roster spots to fill. With the Upper Limit projected to be at or close to $83.5MM next season, that’s not exactly a workable scenario. That’s why it makes sense for their top-six addition up front to come at the expense of one of their 2024 UFA class as frankly, they can’t afford one otherwise.

That possible move notwithstanding, Conroy will need to free up a few million more in cap space. One way to chip away at that would be to move backup goaltender Daniel Vladar who will begin his new two-year deal next season at a $2.2MM price tag. Going to a cheaper second-stringer or promoting prospect Dustin Wolf would free up a little over $1MM, enough to fill at least one of those remaining roster spots.

Another spot could be to chip away at the back end which, with Kylington’s return, will cost them over $27.25MM, putting them near the top of the league in spending at that position. Trying to move out someone like Zadorov for a cheaper option or for a future asset would certainly help free up some wiggle room. Accordingly, as much as Conroy will be looking to add this summer, he almost certainly is going to need to subtract from it as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.