Arbitration Breakdown: Troy Terry
With the Minnesota Wild settling with goaltender Filip Gustavsson today, the biggest name left yet to have his arbitration hearing is undoubtedly Anaheim Ducks forward Troy Terry. There are just a handful of days to go in this year’s arbitration calendar, and Terry is set to have his hearing on Wednesday, August 2, meaning he’ll have a contract for next season in place by this Friday at the latest. The Ducks still have franchise cornerstone center Trevor Zegras to sign for next season, although he was not eligible for arbitration.
Filings
Team: $4.5MM
Player: $8MM
Midpoint: $6.25MM
(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)
The Numbers
Last season proved to be a pivotal year for Troy Terry, once again demonstrating his ability to be a high-end top-six scoring forward without much help around him. He showed his breakout campaign in 2021-22 was no fluke, tying his career-high in goals and setting new career-highs in even-strength assists and average time on ice.
Set to turn 26 in September, Terry’s journey has certainly not mirrored the temperate expectations Anaheim had for him when they selected him in the fifth round of the 2015 NHL Draft. He has unquestionably evolved into one of the most significant value picks of the last decade, transforming into a bonafide top-six winger after giving him plenty of time to develop at the University of Denver and in the minors with the AHL’s San Diego Gulls. He’s a well-rounded offensive talent and far from a liability defensively – in fact, he’d posted above-average advanced results in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
With Terry just now teetering on the edge of unrestricted free agency next offseason, there’s little reason to be afraid of a setback in his abilities or production. The linearity of his development and the wide range of positive advanced indicators regarding his sustainability as a top-six scoring winger has left many Ducks fans puzzled about how arbitration may be required to get him under contract.
Arbitration isn’t something the Ducks likely desire – he’s only two seasons away from unrestricted free agency in 2025, and a short-term deal risks losing him for nothing at that point. At what lengths (one or two years) the Ducks and Terry filed is unclear.
2022-23 Stats: 70 GP, 23-38-61, -8 rating, 22 PIMs, 188 shots, 19:22 ATOI, 49.2 CF%
Career Stats: 274 GP, 75-101-176, -17 rating, 74 PIMs, 550 shots, 16:43 ATOI, 49.8 CF%
Potential Comparables
Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used. The contracts below fit within those parameters. Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Terry’s negotiation.
Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils) – Despite his solid play, the seemingly most comparable case to Terry’s isn’t all that favorable to him. Bratt and the Devils had to get a one-year contract awarded via arbitration last season, totaling $5.45MM. At the time, Bratt had slightly more NHL experience at 307 games played but had scored 203 total points, a similar career-scoring pace to Terry. However, it’s worth noting that Bratt hadn’t demonstrated the consistency immediately before his arbitration hearing that Terry has – Bratt had just seven goals in the 2020-21 campaign, while Terry had scored 20-plus goals in each of the two seasons leading up to his hearing. Unfortunately for Terry, this is one of the closest comparables out there for his situation, and it’s significantly lower than his midpoint of $6.25MM.
Kevin Fiala (Minnesota Wild) – This was another one-year pact dished out by an arbitrator, except it was one season before Bratt’s in 2021. The deal came in at a marginally lower cap hit of $5.1MM, but Terry had better career offensive numbers at the time of signing – remember, this Fiala deal was signed before he posted back-to-back seasons above a point per game. This strikes as a low-end comparable for Terry – it would be surprising to see the arbitrator side any further toward the Ducks than this.
Projection
This is one of the more complex cases this summer to predict. It’s partially because of the wide gap in filings between the two parties (leaving lots of room for error around the midpoint) but also the lack of an excellent comparable for a player with as little experience and as old as Terry, already deep into his mid-20s.
That said, things don’t look promising for Terry to get anything close to his sky-high wish of $8MM. It’s become clear that deals settled by an arbitrator rarely carry such an exorbitant price, and he likely doesn’t have the many seasons of experience under his belt to justify a change in pace, even if things do look promising for him to continue his solid trajectory in the future.
This may be one of the first deals we predict to fall below the midpoint this summer. While both Anaheim and Terry have gone for extreme filings here, Terry’s comparables are not kind, and there’s little argument based on past arbitrator decisions for him to receive anything above the $6.25MM midpoint here. A deal in the $5.5MM-$6.25MM range seems much more realistic when considering the stagnant cap over the past few seasons and the lack of willingness from arbitrators to dish out deals high into the $6-8MM range.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Mason McTavish Out For The Rest Of The Season
Derek Lee of The Sporting Tribune is reporting that Anaheim Ducks center Mason McTavish will miss the remainder of the season after suffering an injury in last night’s 3-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. McTavish scored a powerplay goal in the game but was limited to just 8:09 in ice time after he left with an upper body injury. He will now miss Anaheim’s season finale on Thursday against the Los Angeles Kings.
The 2021 third overall pick will finish his first full NHL season with 17 goals and 26 assists in 80 games, pretty good numbers for a 20-year-old who was tasked to play against top line opponents on a nightly basis. McTavish is among a group of young, skilled, exciting forwards that Anaheim has been able to draft and develop over the past few years. But, with all that youth there have been growing pains, Anaheim will finish this season out of the playoffs for a fifth straight season and are currently tied for the second worst record in the NHL.
While they don’t have a ton of talent at the NHL level, Anaheim boasts one of the best farm systems in the entire NHL. Should they land another top tier prospect in the 2023 entry draft, they could be turning the corner on their rebuild sooner than later. And while they didn’t get a first round pick for John Klingberg, they do boast an awful lot of second and third round picks in the next two drafts.
The Ducks will be busy this summer, on top of what will be a busy draft day, they will need to work out new contracts for Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras, Maxime Comtois, and Jamie Drysdale. The Ducks will have plenty of cap space to work with though, as they currently sit $38MM under the salary cap for the 2023-24 season.
Troy Terry Out For Personal Reasons
The Anaheim Ducks have announced that Troy Terry will miss tonight’s game against the Colorado Avalanche for personal reasons. Terry left the Ducks game Saturday against the St. Louis Blues after scoring a goal and an assist in just over 14 minutes of play. His abrupt exit from the game led many to speculate about an injury, but it was announced yesterday that he left the game to attend to a personal matter.
In his place Frank Vatrano will return to the Ducks lineup tonight. Vatrano was also recently out of the lineup for personal reasons but will once again join the Ducks forward ranks. The 29-year-old came over as an off-season free agent and is just three points shy of tying his career high of 39 points from 2018-19. Vatrano will also be looking to pass the 20-goal plateau for the first time in his career.
Terry is one of the few bright spots on a team that has had an abysmal season in Anaheim. The Ducks sit 29th in the league in total points and are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. For his part Terry has delivered again this season after a massive breakout last year. Terry has 21 goals and 35 assists in 66 games this season after having 67 points in 75 games last year.
The Ducks opted to wait until after the season to negotiate a new contract with Terry, who is in the final year of his three-year deal. For his part Terry has likely secured himself a big pay day with his play the last two seasons. He is making just $1.55MM this year, is arbitration eligible, and just a few years away from unrestricted agency. Given all these factors, it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see Terry triple or even quadruple his salary this summer.
Anaheim Ducks Activate Troy Terry
The Anaheim Ducks have swapped some forwards, activating Troy Terry from injured reserve and moving Adam Henrique to take his place. Justin Kirkland, who cleared waivers earlier today, has also been loaned to the AHL.
Terry, 25, played just three shifts in his first game back after the All-Star break before going down to injury, meaning he hasn’t finished a full NHL game yet in February. The talented forward can now return to continue another strong season, with 42 points in 51 games.
More concerning for the Ducks is the status of Henrique, who has been ruled out week-to-week with a lower-body injury. He was one of Anaheim’s trade chips heading into the deadline, as even with another year on his contract, his experience and versatility was drawing interest from several clubs.
Now, with some uncertainty around his health, it’s hard for contenders to jump into a Henrique if he costs a prime asset. The 33-year-old carries a cap hit of $5.825MM through 2023-24, and isn’t producing at quite the same rate as last season. Still, with 19 goals in 57 games, a decade of experience at center, and strong two-way tendencies, perhaps someone will welcome the risk at an injury-reduced price.
Injured on Tuesday, he technically could be activated to play in the Ducks’ final game before the deadline if he is healthy enough to get back on the ice.
Troy Terry Placed On Injured Reserve
After playing just three shifts before exiting Monday’s game against the Dallas Stars, Troy Terry has been placed on injured reserve. The Anaheim Ducks forward is dealing with an upper-body injury and missed Tuesday’s match against the Chicago Blackhawks. In his roster spot, the Ducks have recalled goaltender Olle Eriksson Ek from the AHL.
With Anthony Stolarz listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury Eriksson Ek will likely serve as John Gibson‘s backup tonight. The young netminder has never appeared in an NHL game and has an .851 save percentage in 13 games for the San Diego Gulls this season.
Terry, meanwhile, has been excellent once again, racking up 42 points through 51 games to earn a trip to the All-Star game. The 25-year-old now has 109 points in 126 games over his last two seasons, experiencing a true breakout after some middling performances early in his career.
For a contending team, removing that from the lineup would be devastating. For the Ducks, it might realistically be a good thing. Anaheim is 5-1-1 in their last seven games, the opposite of what they want to accomplish this season. They have pulled within three points of the San Jose Sharks in the Pacific Division race and are now well ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks and Columbus Blue Jackets in the race for the top draft lottery position.
It could be good for the Ducks on a different level, too. Terry is an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the year, and with the excellent point totals he has recently put up, he will be looking for a huge raise on his current $1.45MM cap hit. Some time out of the lineup will help the Ducks in those negotiations, even if they want to be icing their young star as much as possible.
NHL Announces Initial All-Star Rosters
According to a league release, the NHL has named the first eight selections to the four divisional All-Star teams for the 2023 NHL All-Star Game in Sunrise, Florida.
The league names one player to represent each team at the game, a rule in standing since the league switched to a divisional format for its mid-season talent showcase. A public fan vote will decide the three remaining players per division next week.
Each division’s leader in points percentage after gameplay concludes on January 11 will determine coaches for these teams. The Boston Bruins have already clinched the best such number in the Atlantic at that time, meaning Jim Montgomery will be behind the bench for the star-studded Atlantic Division, arguably the league’s best contingent of talent.
The initial rosters for each division are as follows:
Atlantic Division
Boston: G Linus Ullmark (1st appearance)
Buffalo: C Tage Thompson (1st appearance)
Detroit: C Dylan Larkin (3rd appearance)
Florida: RW Matthew Tkachuk (2nd appearance)
Montreal: C Nick Suzuki (2nd appearance)
Ottawa: LW Brady Tkachuk (3rd appearance)
Tampa Bay: RW Nikita Kucherov (4th appearance)
Toronto: RW Mitch Marner (2nd appearance)
Metropolitan Division
Carolina: LW Andrei Svechnikov (1st appearance)
Columbus: LW Johnny Gaudreau (7th appearance)
New Jersey: C Jack Hughes (2nd appearance)
NY Islanders: C Brock Nelson (1st appearance)
NY Rangers: G Igor Shesterkin (1st appearance)
Philadelphia: C Kevin Hayes (1st appearance)
Pittsburgh: C Sidney Crosby (5th appearance)
Washington: LW Alex Ovechkin (8th appearance)
Central Division
Arizona: LW Clayton Keller (3rd appearance)
Chicago: RD Seth Jones (4th appearance)
Colorado: RD Cale Makar (2nd appearance)
Dallas: LW Jason Robertson (1st appearance)
Minnesota: LW Kirill Kaprizov (2nd appearance)
Nashville: G Juuse Saros (2nd appearance)
St. Louis: RW Vladimir Tarasenko (injured) (4th appearance)
Winnipeg: LD Josh Morrissey (1st appearance)
Pacific Division
Anaheim: RW Troy Terry (2nd appearance)
Calgary: C Nazem Kadri (2nd appearance)
Edmonton: C Connor McDavid (6th appearance)
Los Angeles: LW Kevin Fiala (1st appearance)
San Jose: RD Erik Karlsson (7th appearance)
Seattle: C Matthew Beniers (1st appearance)
Vancouver: C Elias Pettersson (3rd appearance)
Vegas: G Logan Thompson (1st appearance)
The most important note on these rosters is obviously that of Tarasenko’s status. The 31-year-old is on injured reserve with a hand injury, and likely won’t be able to suit up. His replacement will be named shortly.
More to come…
Injury Updates: Labanc, Flyers, Muzzin, Terry
Not long ago, it looked like the Sharks would soon be welcoming winger Kevin Labanc back to the lineup for the first time since suffering a shoulder injury back in December. However, as Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News notes, the team is now considering shutting the 26-year-old down for the rest of the season. Labanc visited the surgeon who performed the surgery on Thursday and got the green light but with San Jose out of the playoff picture, they may err on the side of caution and avoid any possible risk of him reaggravating the injury.
Other injury news from around the NHL:
- Flyers defenseman Nick Seeler will miss some time due to a lower-body injury, relays Olivia Reiner of the Philadelphia Inquirer (Twitter link). The 28-year-old has been a depth defender this season, getting into 43 games with Philadelphia, averaging a little over 13 minutes per night. Meanwhile, Reiner adds that winger Zack MacEwen was injured on Saturday in his fight with Toronto’s Wayne Simmonds and was also unavailable for their game against the Rangers tonight. It’s only the third game that MacEwen has missed this season.
- Maple Leafs defenseman Jake Muzzin is expected to return at some point on this road trip but it won’t be tomorrow in Tampa Bay, notes Sportsnet’s Luke Fox (Twitter link). He has missed the last six weeks due to a concussion and is currently on LTIR. The veteran has had a quiet year offensively with just a dozen points in 41 games but still logs 21 minutes a night and will solidify Toronto’s top four heading into the playoffs.
- Ducks winger Troy Terry will miss tonight’s game against Edmonton due to the facial injuries sustained on Friday against Arizona, reports Eric Stephens of The Athletic. He’s expected to be re-evaluated later today with a determination of how much more time he might miss to be made at that time. The 24-year-old has had a breakout year, recording more points (57) than he had in his first 129 career games over parts of four seasons (48).
Pacific Notes: Boeser, Kings, Ducks
Prior to the trade deadline, the Canucks hadn’t made any progress on a contract extension with winger Brock Boeser, reports Postmedia’s Patrick Johnston. It has been a quiet year by the 25-year-old’s standards as he has 19 goals and 19 assists in 60 games, numbers that aren’t bad but aren’t befitting of the $7.5MM salary he’s receiving this season which stands as his qualifying offer in July to retain his rights. It’s that situation that had Boeser in trade speculation heading into the deadline and will continue to have him in that until a new deal can be reached. Vancouver can take him to arbitration and offer 90% of the qualifying offer but that’s as low as they can go and it’s something they can only do once with Boeser.
More from the Pacific:
- Kings defenseman Tobias Bjornfot is nearing a return from the undisclosed injury that has kept him out for the last couple of weeks, relays Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider. The 20-year-old has held down a regular spot on the third pairing for Los Angeles this season, averaging over 16 minutes a night in his sophomore year. Meanwhile, winger Brendan Lemieux was a full participant in practice for the first time since sustaining a lower-body injury three weeks ago. He leads the Kings in penalty minutes (86) and sits second in hits (108) in his 44 contests.
- Ducks center Ryan Getzlaf is expected to be a game-time decision for Saturday’s game against San Jose, notes Elliott Teaford of the Orange County Register (Twitter link). The veteran has missed the last three weeks with a lower-body injury but still sits tied for fourth in team scoring. Winger Troy Terry should be back for that game, however, after missing Wednesday’s contest due to illness.
Anaheim Ducks Activate Troy Terry, Cam Fowler
The Anaheim Ducks are getting some big names back into the fold. They tweeted today that they’ve activated forward Troy Terry and defenseman Cam Fowler from COVID-19 protocol, assigning forward Vinni Lettieri to the team’s taxi squad to make roster space.
Anaheim is still in playoff position in the Pacific Division. However, they’ve entered a bit of a slide with big names out of the lineup, posting just a 3-7-0 record in their last 10 games.
The Ducks’ return to relevancy certainly came sooner than expected this season, and Terry and Fowler are big parts of that. Heading to his first All-Star Game this year, Terry leads the team in goals (22) and points (36) in 38 games. Fowler’s once against logged big minutes this year, playing 23:42 a game and notching 20 points.
Lettieri comes out of the lineup playing decently well in injury relief, notching seven points in 15 games while receiving a top-six role at times.
NHL Announces 2022 All-Star “Last Men In”
The NHL All-Star rosters were revealed a few days ago, with one final spot open for each division. Those spots were filled by the “Last Men In” today following a fan vote.
For the Atlantic Division, the last man in is Steven Stamkos, captain of the Tampa Bay Lightning and the team’s third All-Star. He’ll join Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy at the event, which will be held on the weekend of February 4-5. Stamkos is having a brilliant bounce-back season with 18 goals and 46 points in 39 games.
In the Metro, Mika Zibanejad of the New York Rangers was the vote-in choice, but due to personal reasons, he will not be attending. Instead, Jake Guentzel of the Pittsburgh Penguins will take his place. While refusing an All-Star appearance is normally a one-game suspension, that does not appear to be the case for Zibanejad. Guentzel is certainly a worthwhile replacement, as he is currently tied for seven in the league with 20 goals and has scored them in just 32 games.
For the Central, the obvious choice was Colorado Avalanche center Nazem Kadri and the fans did not disappoint. Fifth in the league with 49 points this season, Kadri is having a career year and arguably deserved the All-Star bid ahead of teammate Nathan MacKinnon, who will also be there (along with Cale Makar, making it three for the Avalanche).
Another obvious snub when the lists were announced will be rectified as Troy Terry was the Pacific’s last man in, celebrating his breakout season. The 24-year-old forward sits sixth in league scoring with 22 goals in just 38 games, more than doubling his previous career total.