The Ducks Have Had An Uneven Offseason
The Anaheim Ducks finished last season feeling pretty good about the gains the team had made, going from a non-playoff team to a second-round elimination. At the time, Ducks’ GM Pat Verbeek stated that the team would continue to build around its young core while attempting to add complementary veterans. That was around mid-May, and since then the Ducks have done a lot of roster shuffling, and not much of it has been good. The Ducks have effectively lost the entire right side of their defensive core, have been targeted by offer sheets (or the threat of offer sheets) twice, and now they are in a bit of a pickle when it comes to forward Cutter Gauthier’s next extension. All in all, it’s been a forgettable two months for Verbeek and company, and it’s tough to imagine how they will navigate the noise to enter next season with a roster better than the one they had this past year.
The offseason began with the announcement that Troy Terry would miss the first few months of the regular season after hip impingement surgery. The timing isn’t ideal for the Ducks, but it was certainly a better option than having the surgery mid-season or at the start of the regular season. The 28-year-old is a big piece of the Ducks’ offence, and they will feel his absence in the early going next season.
The transactions this offseason started inconspicuously with Anaheim trading the rights to a couple of pending UFAs, John Carlson and Radko Gudas. Anaheim even picked up forward A.J. Greer in the Gudas swap and signed him to a four-year deal worth $4.25MM per season. Greer is a big risk for the Ducks, as he’s had just one career season with more than 30 points, and it happened this past season, when he shot 16.3%, nearly double his career average. Greer could be just scratching the surface of his potential, but at 29 years of age, that feels unlikely.
Next came the Mason McTavish trade with the St. Louis Blues, which was probably the best piece of business Anaheim has done this summer. McTavish struggled immensely last season and was demoted from a top-six center to a bottom-six winger at one point. The deal sent two first-round picks to Anaheim, a solid return for a player whose skating and defensive work made moving him feel like the right decision for Anaheim. It remains to be seen whether McTavish will live up to the potential that made him a third-overall pick, but that will be the Blues’ concern now.
Around the same time as the trade, general manager Verbeek brought in veteran defenseman Nick Jensen to replace the losses on the right side of the defense core. Jensen has been a dependable NHL defender for a long time, but at this stage of his career it’s hard to consider him a top-four fixture, even though he shouldn’t be, given what he’s being paid and where his skills are at. Jensen could be a good fit on the bottom pairing in Anaheim, but if he is elevated in the lineup for any reason, he could struggle. Right now, it appears that Ian Moore and Tristan Luneau could be the top four options in front of Jensen, but that would leave a pile of question marks for Anaheim’s defense.
Then there are the contract extensions, and let’s just say these did not go to plan for Verbeek and company. A Philadelphia Flyers offer sheet to forward Leo Carlsson effectively iced the Ducks out of looking at many other moves, and the threat of an offer sheet boxed the Ducks in during contract negotiations with defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, who signed a five-year extension worth $36MM ($7.2MM AAV). It was the Carlsson offer sheet for five years at $18MM annually that absolutely threw a wrench into the Ducks’ long-term plans and is highly likely to throw their entire salary cap structure out of whack. With Carlsson now the highest-paid player in the league, the attention now turns to Cutter Gauthier and his extension, which was projected earlier this year to be around seven years at $8.8MM annually. That projection came at a time when Carlsson was projected to get roughly $11.5MM on his long-term deal, but those figures are all moot at this point given the escalation in spending that has occurred this offseason. The Gauthier extension is huge for the Ducks and could really burn through their future cap flexibility, which has been badly damaged this summer.
Ultimately, the Ducks have no one to blame but themselves for the mess they’ve made this summer, particularly with the contracts for their young stars. Verbeek long had been known as a GM who was a tough negotiator with young players, and now that has come back to bite him. The good news for Verbeek was that he didn’t commit to long-term deals for aging stars, though he has done that in the past and might be forced to move some of them (Alex Killorn, for example) to create the room under the salary cap to fit Gauthier’s new deal. Another silver lining (in the short term) is that Verbeek moved off McTavish’s deal, which should allow the team to be cap-compliant next season. But if McTavish flourishes in St. Louis, his deal will look like a massive bargain and could turn out to be another blemish on Verbeek’s record in a summer where he took his lumps.
The Canadiens Can Afford To Be Patient This Summer
There is no NHL team better positioned to become a dynasty than the Montreal Canadiens. That said, there is perhaps no fanbase more surprised by their front office this offseason than Canadiens fans, given the lack of movement in Montreal and the lack of urgency that could come across to some as indifference. Make no mistake, though, that indifference is patience, and Habs fans should be happy to see it from management at a time when most GMs would have made a move just to make one. Many folks in Montreal are probably wondering why general manager Kent Hughes hasn’t made the big move, but the real question should be, “Why would he make a big move right now?”
This summer has been a wild one thus far for many teams, as top-six forwards and top-four defensemen have been moved for massive hauls that are inflated returns compared to years past. Hughes has said the Canadiens have been in active trade discussions, as they were leading up to the NHL Trade Deadline, but much like early March, Montreal has been able to make any big moves. That should be encouraging for Canadiens fans, as it shows that their management is in this rebuild for the long haul and won’t simply make moves just to make them. Discipline is not commonplace in the NHL, as most GMs try to make moves for the here and now to pad their resumes, but Hughes seems to understand the opportunity in front of his team, and he has navigated it patiently, which is the best course of action.
What makes Montreal different from a team like Toronto, or some of the other more active teams, is that the Canadiens are just opening their window of contention and aren’t anywhere near a Stanley Cup-or-bust team. Their core of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Ivan Demidov, and Lane Hutson is locked into team-friendly long-term deals and is quite young, which means Hughes doesn’t need to force a move that sacrifices premium future assets just to plug a hole in the here and now.
There is an argument to be made that many of the moves this summer have been overpays, particularly if you look at a deal like the Bowen Byram trade to Chicago. This was a huge gamble for the Blackhawks, and it’s easy to see why Hughes didn’t have interest in these types of trades. Hughes has talked about pursuing big trades in the past, but has walked away when the prices exceeded his comfort level. It’s easy to understand, with the core the Canadiens have, that Hughes wouldn’t want to force an overpay for a player in their 30s. This kind of thinking is antithetical to the types of general managers who make it their mission to win the offseason. Hughes knows that the market favors sellers right now, largely because of the weak free-agent market and the rising salary cap. It’s entirely possible that prices drop later in the summer or midway through the season, when teams are out of contention and may opt to move on from certain players.
As much as it might pain some Canadiens fans, Hughes has built up the credibility to be trusted in this situation based on his track record. He has a good record of maximizing returns on veteran players when he has needed to, while also maintaining the team’s organizational prospect depth when adding young NHL talent to the lineup. Some might disagree and point to the Noah Dobson trade as an example of the opposite, but at this time, it’s hard to call a winner in that move.
The bottom line for Montreal is that they don’t need a move; they need the right moves. The kind of moves that will keep this team humming along in contention for the present and future. With all the flexibility and assets at his disposal, Hughes will certainly be content to enter training camp in the fall with the status quo if he can’t find the right additions for his team. Some fans might see that as passive, but letting the market dictate what you should be willing to give up would be more passive, and Hughes doesn’t look like he will do that. That should be music to the ears of Canadiens fans, who should enjoy having a general manager who is proactive rather than reactive.
Teams that win the offseason rarely win in-season. Just ask the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators, who both won the previous summer only to fall apart during the regular season. The Flames underwent monumental roster changes in the summer of 2022, watching Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau head elsewhere while bringing in Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar. The moves did not go as planned, as Tkachuk took the Panthers to three straight Stanley Cup Finals, while Huberdeau signed arguably the worst contract in the NHL. The same could be said for the Predators, who signed Steven Stamkos, Brady Skjei and Jonathan Marchessault to huge contracts in free agency, only for Nashville to fall apart and miss the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.
The Canadiens don’t have to look far to find promising rebuilds that were derailed by poor roster management beyond the stars. The Toronto Maple Leafs famously had their core of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, John Tavares and William Nylander, but could only get out of the first round twice with the group, while their roster construction left a lot to be desired, especially around the mid-tier contracts on the team. Toronto made a pile of ill-advised forays into free agency that resulted in a lack of cap space, and in some cases, trading away premium assets to make bad contracts go away (Patrick Marleau, for example). Those are the types of mistakes that get made when GMs panic, which is something Hughes hasn’t done, and hopefully, for Canadiens fans, he won’t.
Will The Flames Dip Into The Free Agent Pool?
A few weeks ago, Calgary Flames general manager Craig Conroy told Eric Francis of Sportsnet that the Flames likely wouldn’t be dipping into free agency, and that he didn’t expect many players to be available to Calgary who would make sense for what they’re trying to do. The Flames do have a group of young players hoping to break through to the NHL. At the same time, the team has many needs, which raises the question of whether it could plug some holes with any of the remaining free agents.
The Flames have been busy this summer on the backend, trading for and extending Simon Nemec and acquiring Jacob Middleton from the Minnesota Wild. The moves add to an already intriguing group of defensive options and could open the door for the team to move a defenseman in their pursuit of secondary scoring or perhaps even a top-six forward.
However, after investing heavily in the defense, Conroy might not want to give up much of that to better balance the forwards. That is where a potential free-agent addition could come into play. Signing a free agent would allow Calgary to bring in a proven NHL commodity to help stabilize their forward group and give guidance to younger players.
At the moment, the Flames would likely have to move some inexperienced forwards into leveraged roles. That isn’t ideal for the team’s chances of winning this season or for their younger players’ development. All of this makes the case for looking at the free-agent market, should a reasonably priced opportunity arise. It appears it might.
Then there is the issue of internal competition that could arise if the Flames were to add depth to their forward unit. Relying on younger players to step into roles could become a much bigger concern if injuries occur, especially since some may be slotting into roles they aren’t ready for. There is also concern that younger forwards need more development time, which they might not get if they are playing higher in the hierarchy than they should be. The Flames don’t really need a star to create depth, just a dependable NHL forward or two.
The most sensible fit for the Flames is forward Eeli Tolvanen. He is coming off a decent season with the Seattle Kraken, where he tallied 12 goals and 24 assists. Tolvanen is the best long-term fit available on the market for Calgary, as he is just 27 years old and should remain in the prime of his career as the Flames exit their rebuild.
Tolvanen would check a pile of boxes for Calgary, giving them a reliable two-way winger who could add depth scoring and perhaps play on a second power-play unit. Tolvanen isn’t a defensive stalwart, but he is a player who can be trusted in a variety of situations, which might give the Flames’ young prospects someone to compete with for playing time and perhaps serve as a mentor. Another plus for Calgary, if they were thinking of signing Tolvanen, is that they could likely sign him to a low-risk, short-term contract, given that he remains available over a week into free agency.
Another option, who is a bit older but could make sense, is Michael Bunting. The 30-year-old has bounced around the league since signing a three-year deal with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2023, having been traded to Pittsburgh, Nashville and Dallas. Despite the carousel he’s been on, Bunting is a competitor and wouldn’t mind serving as an agitator and a net-front presence.
Bunting won’t light up the score sheet, but he’s a consistent threat to fall into the 40–50-point range. Bunting would also bring some energy to the group, which might serve the Flames well as they try to find good pros to influence their younger players.
Bunting’s age doesn’t make him an ideal candidate for the Flames’ timeline, but if they signed him to a two- or three-year deal, he’d be a low-risk addition who may still be a gamer by the time the Flames are ready to compete for the playoffs.
The Flames have done well to build up their defense, but it’s no secret they need a lot of work on their forward group, both in the interim and for the future. The trade market has been a seller’s market thus far, which might give the Flames pause about acquiring young forwards that way. That’s not to say they shouldn’t pursue a trade, but signing one of Bunting or Tolvanen gives them options and would allow them to wait until the season to try to acquire additional forward help. The free-agent market isn’t exactly a deep pool of talent, but there are some quality middle-six forwards still available, and the Flames could be in a position to sign one of them to help immediately.
The Senators Still Have Work To Do This Summer
Ottawa Senators general manager Steve Staios has publicly stated that he has no intention of letting the team take a step back this summer. A few weeks into the summer, he has chipped away at that notion but has yet to fully build a better lineup. Ottawa is currently a weaker team on paper than they were when it exited the ice after a first-round sweep at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s possible that Staios goes on a heater and nets the team a few pieces to add to the NHL lineup, making this summer a success, but at the moment, things don’t look rosy.
The Brady Tkachuk hole in the Senators’ lineup is very difficult to ignore right now. You can’t simply replace his presence, emotion, or production. Tkachuk was a tone-setter for the Senators, their most difficult player to play against, and perhaps the only difficult part of playing in Ottawa, other than the commute to the Canadian Tire Centre. Ottawa did receive solid compensation for the 27-year-old in the form of four draft picks, three of which were first-rounders, but the Senators have not adequately replaced his departure.
The addition of William Eklund is a nice start, but he didn’t come cheap and won’t fill in for much of what Tkachuk brought to the table. It’s possible he has better hockey ahead of him than Tkachuk, when you factor in age and the regression that will surely start sooner for Tkachuk than for Eklund. You could also make a case that Eklund is a more complete player than Tkachuk, and some analytics support that (goals above replacement in the last two seasons, for one). Eklund is probably the better defensive player of the two and is much more of a play driver than Tkachuk, who relies more on brute force and battle to get his work done.
On top of Eklund, the remaining draft picks are also solid long-term additions, but they won’t give Ottawa a boost next season unless they are flipped in the interim for significant NHL talent. That’s where Ottawa will struggle, as they are constrained by the salary cap and probably can’t add another top-six forward, which they need. That player would slide into an offensive role, a leadership role, and perhaps a special-teams role. There is a lot of Tkachuk that hasn’t been replaced, and it’s a significant challenge to replace it piecemeal.
A problem for Ottawa, or perhaps the problem, is that they entered this offseason needing to add depth to their top six, and even with the addition of Eklund, they’re effectively back at square one. It’s unlikely that Ottawa will add to their top two lines this offseason unless they send money out the door at the same time.
There is also the question of what to do with Drake Batherson, who is eligible for an extension and is less than a year away from unrestricted free agency. Batherson has been a terrific offensive producer for the Senators, but given his body of work, it’s not crazy to think he could be a $9MM player going forward. Is that a number Ottawa is comfortable paying for an offensive player who doesn’t necessarily pay attention to the finer details away from the puck? It’s a question that will be answered in time, but even if Ottawa is leaning towards moving him, they simply don’t have the leverage right now because they’ve already had to move Tkachuk, and losing two scoring wingers would be trouble for a team, especially when Batherson just had a career year.
One positive for Ottawa is that they brought back veteran Claude Giroux, who should provide leadership, stability, and, most importantly, depth for the Senators. The delicate balance of the Senators’ forward group means that one or two injuries could expose a massive problem with the team’s depth up front. Ottawa isn’t exactly rich with forward prospects, but they wisely tapped into the forward free agency market and signed some tweeners who should be good AHL players and decent call-ups if the Senators find themselves in injury trouble. Philip Tomasino and Sammy Blais are the likely players to get those call-ups, and while they aren’t exactly impact players at this stage of their careers, they can provide reasonable NHL minutes for a low cost. Tomasino has shown glimpses in the past of being on the verge of a breakout, but he has never been able to put it together on a long-term basis.
Overall, the Senators haven’t taken a major step back this summer, but they haven’t exactly improved either, which, in a way, is admirable given that they had to move on from their captain earlier than they’d hoped. At the same time, Ottawa can ill afford to sit around and hope that internal improvements will lead to them taking their next steps. Ottawa has some good young players, but make no mistake, the time to compete for Stanley Cups is now, and the Senators don’t feel like a club that is ready to do that. Some folks might look at their lineup and the salary structure and say they have plenty of runway to win a cup in this competitive window. However, these are the Ottawa Senators, and they do have a history of losing star players earlier than they’d like, so there are no guarantees that everybody sticks around to see their whole run through.
The Penguins Need To Find Their Next Superstar
It’s been decades since the Pittsburgh Penguins’ fanbase wondered who their next superstar would be, as they’ve been spoiled for 40 years by the likes of Mario Lemieux, Jaromir Jagr, Ron Francis, Sidney Crosby, and Evgeni Malkin. This question, though, is on the minds of many Penguins fans and is clearly something Kyle Dubas sees as a problem, especially given that he is eyeing the future and has rebuilt the Penguins’ prospect pool into a respectable one in just two short years. What he lacks, though, is the hardest thing to acquire, and that is the next great superstar to pull on a Penguins jersey. At the moment, there is no clear path for the Penguins to get that player who can define an era of Pittsburgh hockey.
Every successful run of Penguins hockey has been built around the aforementioned superstars. Lemieux saved the Penguins (more than once), Jagr and Francis followed, and so did the titles. Then Crosby and Malkin ushered in a new era of championship hockey, and Pittsburgh’s dominance continued. But they haven’t been a true Cup contender in nearly a decade, and history suggests they need their next star sooner rather than later. That was supposed to happen in this year’s draft with a bottom-five finish in the standings, but the Penguins surprisingly made the playoffs, which sent them back in the draft to pick 22nd.
Stockpiling young talent has been a recent phenomenon for the Penguins, but the time for stockpiling is over, and at some point Dubas has to turn quantity into quality. That’s why so many media outlets and fans have been clamouring for Dubas to make a big splash and acquire Dallas Stars forward Jason Robertson. Is Robertson the guy, though? He certainly fits the part as a mid-20s star who can do it all offensively. But just how much will the Penguins be willing to give up, and is he the guy to build around? Only time will tell, but he won’t come cheap, and he will get paid if the Penguins trade for him. As good as Robertson is, he doesn’t feel like the right superstar for the Penguins.
Dubas has done well via trade, bringing in young talent, but the likeliest path to nabbing a future NHL superstar is through the draft. Unless the Penguins finish lower in the standings and get some lottery luck, it might not even be possible. But not all superstars arrive through the draft, and plenty have been traded for. Despite the heater Dubas was on over the past year, it doesn’t feel as though he’s found his superstar yet.
The Penguins have some good pieces, such as Harrison Brunicke, Benjamin Kindel, Rutger McGroarty and Tanner Howe, but none look like superstars unless they dramatically exceed expectations. Even recently acquired and extended Egor Chinakhov looks like a gamer, but it’s hard to believe he is going to morph into a superstar, even though he has an incredible shot.
There is one option for the Penguins that has long been a third rail in NHL circles, and that is the offer sheet. The Penguins are well positioned to offer sheet just about any NHL player in the next year or two, but it would come at an exorbitant cost, and there is a ton of risk involved. But given what Dubas has built and how well he has drafted so far, would giving up four first-round picks to acquire Connor Bedard be worth it? It sure seems that way if there is no other option. Given that the team still employs Crosby and company, they don’t feel like a lottery team anytime soon, which means Dubas is limited in his options to get his next star. It’s also possible that if the Penguins successfully gave up their next four first-round picks but got a superstar in return, those picks could all be late first-round picks.
Another truth about the Penguins is that they haven’t exactly drafted well in the first round when they have used their own pick in the past 10 years. Sure, their 2025 first-round pick was great, and Kindel looks like he should be a terrific NHLer for a long time, but this is a team that also took Owen Pickering, Samuel Poulin and Brayden Yager with their three previous first-round picks, and those players aren’t exactly knocking down the door to get into the NHL. Mid- to late-first-round picks, like most draft picks, are lottery tickets; sure, they have better odds of winning than later picks, but there are no guarantees they turn into full-fledged pro players, while grabbing a player like Bedard or an Adam Fantilli guarantees you get an NHL star right away. It could be a worthwhile gamble for Pittsburgh.
Rebuilding a roster is not easy; retooling is even harder. While Dubas’ work has been admirable, his most difficult task has yet to be completed, and it may require a move so risky that it could set the entire Penguins’ retool back 5- 10 years. It is likely the move that will define Dubas’ tenure in Pittsburgh more than any of the good trades or the good drafting. Pittsburgh has long been an NHL franchise built on drafting generational talent, but this next era of Penguins hockey could be defined by a superstar that was acquired in a different manner, that is if they continue to field a competitive team during the last years of Crosby and Malkin’s NHL careers.
Examining The Blues’ Offseason Thus Far
Now that the dust has settled on the NHL Entry Draft and the early days of free agency, it’s fair to begin making sense of the direction certain teams are headed. One of the busier and more interesting teams this offseason has been the St. Louis Blues, who have taken a no-holds-barred approach to retooling their roster, including the trades of forward Jordan Kyrou and multiple first-round picks, as well as the Jonathan Drouin buyout. The Blues have also been busy adding to their lineup, bringing in forwards Connor McMichael and Mason McTavish, as well as defenseman Brandon Carlo and prospect Milton Gastrin. All of it looks dishevelled and all over the place, but for a team that has badly needed a retool, it’s a decent start for the Blues, though it’s a risky one as well.
The risky moves involve Kyrou and McTavish, and it’s hard to say which move carries more risk. Trading Kyrou was certainly a gamble, as he is a bona fide top-six forward who can put up offense. While he is talented, Kyrou struggled offensively last season, and it’s fair to wonder if the Blues sold low on the 28-year-old until you look at the return. St. Louis received forward McMichael, the number 16 selection in this year’s draft, and the aforementioned Gastrin, which was fair value for the highly sought-after Kyrou. Some might wonder why St. Louis felt compelled to deal Kyrou, but there was clearly something off about the core in St. Louis, which appeared so talented on paper yet was unable to get it done on the ice. Kyrou and McMichael suffered from the same affliction last season, namely that their talent levels didn’t line up with their on-ice production. A fresh start should work out well for both of them.
The other major risk for St. Louis was dealing two first-round picks for McTavish, who has a ton of upside and is just 24 years old. Like Kyrou, McTavish had a down year, and Anaheim elected to sell low, although St. Louis paid a hefty price for the former third-overall pick. There are concerns about McTavish’s skating, but St. Louis probably isn’t concerned about the top-end speed of their power forward with the heavy shot. That will be the risk with McTavish, though, because as good as his hands are and as accurate as his shot is, he needs to get around the ice with some pace, and it remains to be seen whether he will improve that.
Then there was the buyout of Drouin, which, in a vacuum, made sense given that he was owed $4MM and had dramatically underperformed last season in the first year of his two-year deal. Drouin had signed the contract last summer with the New York Islanders, who quickly realized he wasn’t a fit and moved him as part of the trade for Brayden Schenn. Drouin had been an effective player in the years prior while with the Colorado Avalanche, but didn’t fit with the Islanders or the Blues last season and is now a UFA. What made the Drouin buyout odd is that the Blues didn’t really use the savings on another move (other than the Ross Johnston signing) and instead opted to keep the cap space available. But with a full roster of 23 and over $10MM available, it’s possible they don’t spend it. It could be that St. Louis is staying under an internal cap and needed to save actual dollars, which might be the only real explanation for buying out a player who could’ve had some value at the NHL Trade Deadline if he had a bounce-back season.
The signing of Johnston was one of the only other major pieces of news for the Blues on the first day of free agency, as they kept things quiet, signing only him to a three-year, $6MM deal, and Dillon Dube to a one-year deal at the league minimum. Johnston will bring sandpaper to the Blues’ lineup and is effectively just an enforcer at this stage of his career, while Dube will be an unknown at the NHL level, having not played an NHL game since January 2024.
Overall, it’s hard to fault St. Louis for wanting to be proactive in their retooling rather than waiting around for prospects and picks to hopefully work out. By converting Kyrou and their extra first-round picks into young, NHL-ready talent, St. Louis has made themselves more difficult to play against and kept intact a fairly young core that also includes Robert Thomas, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway. They didn’t go about things in the most cohesive manner, but there are times in the NHL when teams make moves to set up something bigger down the road or as part of a bigger plan. The Blues are a team in transition at the moment, and some of the moves made should inject energy into a group that had perhaps become a little stale and a little pessimistic about some of the trades made towards the end of last season, when some key pieces were sent out the door at the trade deadline. St. Louis got younger this summer, and it’s hard to judge the totality of their moves until the team takes to the ice next October.
Buyer Beware When It Comes To Anthony Mantha
Forward Anthony Mantha has all the tools to be an NHL star. He has size, can skate, and has good hands and vision. But for much of his career, he has been maligned for never playing with a ton of heart and for disappearing when games matter most. He did nothing to dispel that notion this past year, as he had an incredible regular season with the Penguins, posting 33 goals and 31 assists in 81 games, but completely disappeared in the playoffs, posting just a single assist in six games and being at fault for the overtime goal that knocked the Penguins out of the playoffs. Now, the 31-year-old is set to enter one of the weakest free agent markets in recent history and could sign one of the riskiest free agent contracts in recent memory. That is, if you are the team signing the checks.
Teams are about to line up in a bidding war for Mantha, as he is one of the top available wingers and is projected by AFP Analytics to receive a four-year deal worth $6.35MM per season. That type of contract likely means teams will focus more on his career-high goal totals this past season than on his overall body of work. That sort of tunnel vision is almost certain to lead to buyer’s remorse when it comes to Mantha, but the question is how soon a team feels the pain of his contract and for how long they will have to deal with it.
Plenty of players sign crazy contracts on July 1st every year. But Mantha is a unique case, as teams have long known what he is and have twice resisted the urge to pay him big money long term. Couple that with the typical decline that happens to bigger forwards, and it is easy to see that whoever gives Mantha his big-money deal is likely to feel the sting at some point during the deal.
Mantha isn’t the only contract that could age like milk, but he does exemplify GM’s tendency to fall into the trap of recency bias when handing out big money on July 1st. It’s a tale as old as the league. A player gets hot for one season or a short period, and teams line up to pay them big money long term, only to see their investment turn into a pumpkin when midnight hits. Think Ville Leino or Fernando Pisani. Those men got paid big money for short runs, but in Mantha’s case, he’s had a lengthy career as an average scorer, and this season will likely not be the norm, especially given how power forwards age into their 30s.
Prior to this season, Mantha had topped 40 points on three separate occasions and was a three-time 20-goal scorer. However, only one of those high-end seasons had come in the last six years, and Mantha had dressed for three different teams in the previous five years. That kind of instability had become par for the course for Mantha before the Penguins signed him to a low-risk one-year deal last July. Mantha proved to be a good soldier for Pittsburgh during the regular season, but his inability to step up when the games got hard showed in the playoffs, when the Penguins were dropped by the Philadelphia Flyers.
All of that is unlikely to sway NHL general managers from opening their chequebooks and writing Mantha a contract offer they will regret in a few years’ time, if they are still employed by the team that signs him. Mantha will be 32 by the time the season starts, meaning the team that signs him to a projected four-year deal will be paying him into his age-36 season.
At this point, Mantha’s consistency issues have persisted since he was scouted as a junior player in 2013. At the time, the belief was that if he added grit and aggressiveness to his game, he could become a solid top-six NHL forward. While he has done that at times, there are also long lapses when Mantha seems either disengaged or overwhelmed by the moment, leading to him becoming a ghost in those games.
The Flyers series in the first round of this year’s playoffs was a perfect example. PHR wrote in the spring that Mantha’s performance in those six games could have hurt his playoff stock, but we will only know for sure once free agency opens on July 1st. In 20 career NHL playoff games, Mantha has yet to score a goal, though he has seven assists. Some teams might view this as a case of bad luck, with Mantha shooting 0% in the playoffs instead of the 13.8% he shoots in the regular season.
But if that is a metric GMs are using, there is perhaps one more they should consider, namely the 21.7% Mantha shot last season with the Penguins. It’s unlikely he reaches that number again, and even if he does, it will not be sustainable over the full term of a four-year contract.
Is This The Year Jack Roslovic Finally Gets Paid?
If any player has ever been forced to earn a multi-year contract, it is forward Jack Roslovic. The 29-year-old has had to sign one-year “prove it” contracts in back-to-back summers and hopes this will be the summer he finally lands a lucrative multi-year contract in free agency. No one will feel sorry for Roslovic, as he’s made $14.7MM (as per PuckPedia) in the past five seasons, nor will they feel sorry for him as he enters this market, which is absolutely a players’ market with a rising cap and so few impact free agents available. Roslovic might be hitting the UFA market at exactly the right time, having rebuilt his value after betting on himself again.
We’ve seen this movie before. However, after entering last summer coming off a solid season, he couldn’t find a long-term deal to his liking and settled for a one-year deal with the Edmonton Oilers in October. His overall numbers dipped this season, but he played in just 69 games, tallying 21 goals and 15 assists, along with solid underlying numbers. Roslovic doesn’t play much on the power play and hasn’t killed penalties regularly for a few seasons, but his speed and puck handling, along with his age (29), make him an intriguing player in free agency. He clearly isn’t a star, but he is a useful middle-six forward who can be a good fill-in for the top six and can comfortably play on an impact third line.
On the negative side, there is a need for a team to shelter Roslovic at times by giving him offensive zone starts, though he can use his speed to make defensive recoveries if needed. There is also the knock on Roslovic: his inconsistency from year to year. But after a 36-point season this year and a very productive season in Carolina during 2024-25 (22 goals and 39 points in 81 games), those concerns should be set aside. Roslovic also has multiple 20+ goal seasons, which might be enough offensive output to lead general managers to overlook his deficiencies if they are looking for help in their middle six, especially for teams that are looking for speed.
On the contract front, a three- or four-year deal for Roslovic would take him through what should be the rest of his prime seasons, minimizing risk for any interested parties. But it is fair to wonder why he hasn’t received that big contract in free agency thus far. The tools are there, and some of the numbers bear this out, but for whatever reason, Roslovic has bounced around to four teams in four seasons and has not found a long-term home. That is certainly a concern for teams, along with the financial commitment to a player approaching 30 who has warts in his game.
Roslovic can fill any number of roles for an NHL team, and the league often rewards players who consistently do so, even if they never become stars. That adds another weird dynamic to the Roslovic story, but at the moment, it appears that Roslovic has reached the point in his career where he will finally get paid. After twice betting on himself with short-term contracts, Roslovic may finally be positioned to cash in on the multi-year deal that has remained just out of reach. Much of it isn’t due to some incredible level of play, but rather to market forces tied to the salary cap and the lack of accomplished UFAs. The quickly escalating salary cap has changed the marketplace, and giving a guy like Roslovic $4MM or more annually isn’t the cap hindrance it was a few years ago.
So, what exactly can one expect Roslovic to get? AFP Analytics has him tabbed for a three-year contract at $4.7MM annually, which seems plausible given the deals handed out thus far to pending UFAs and RFAs. Jack Drury just received five years and $4.5MM from the Nashville Predators as an RFA, and it’s not crazy to think Roslovic could top that in AAV. Drury is much more of a defensive forward, having never topped 27 points in any one NHL season, whereas Roslovic is more offensive-minded and has a bit of a goal-scoring touch.
The projection for AFP could be close to correct, but it could also fall well short, depending on how desperate NHL teams are for forward help. Many of the contracts have been handed out thus far, and quite a few have dramatically topped AFP’s projections, including Drury’s, which came in about $1.6MM above the projection per season. For what it’s worth, Tony DeAngelo doubled his projection a few days ago as well, and forward Pavel Dorofeyev was projected at $9MM annually and finished signing with the New York Rangers for $11MM annually. Now this isn’t to suggest Roslovic will magically get $7MM or more per year, but it’s certainly possible that he surpasses the AFP projection, which would make all the gambles in previous summers worth it.
Assessing The Parker Wotherspoon Extension Possibilities
The Pittsburgh Penguins had a surprising 2025-26 season, making the playoffs in the Metropolitan Division and defying expectations. One player who really excelled was defenseman Parker Wotherspoon, who was signed last summer to a two-year, $2MM ($1MM AAV) contract and was expected to be a spare part on the Penguins’ defensive core. However, the 28-year-old had other ideas, rewarding Pittsburgh with steady play alongside Erik Karlsson and becoming the Penguins’ de facto top pairing. Wotherspoon also did something for the Penguins that hadn’t happened in the two seasons prior, giving Karlsson room to be Karlsson again. The 36-year-old had his best season as a Penguin and perhaps his best overall since leaving the Ottawa Senators in 2018. Wotherspoon has one year left on his deal, and with the Penguins’ left side looking lean going forward, locking up the extension-eligible rearguard should be a big priority for general manager Kyle Dubas this summer.
Wotherspoon had played just 108 NHL games prior to last year (96 with Boston and 12 with the NYI) and had never played more than 55 games in any NHL season. He had been ramping up over the two years leading into last season, but there were few statistical signs he was due for a breakout. That said, Penguins management clearly saw something in the Surrey, British Columbia, native that pushed them to him. Wotherspoon dressed in 80 games last season, posting three goals and 27 assists while averaging 20:10 per game. His 30 points were especially impressive given that he recorded none on the power play, logging less than four minutes all season with the man advantage. In fact, Wotherspoon had more shorthanded points (two assists) than power-play points last year.
In his small NHL sample prior to last year, he wasn’t what you would call an analytical darling, but his CF% at even strength in his first year in Pittsburgh was a solid 51.5%, despite starting more of his shifts in the defensive zone. His 162 hits ranked him second on the Penguins behind Connor Clifton, and he led the team in blocked shots with 112. It wasn’t all rainbows and sunshine for Wotherspoon, as he did bleed turnovers throughout the year, committing a team-high 118. The playoffs were also rather forgettable for Wotherspoon, although he was hardly the reason Pittsburgh was bounced in the first round in just six games.
The contract negotiations between the Penguins and Wotherspoon will be particularly interesting, assuming they take place at all this summer. But, as stated earlier, the Penguins should be eager to lock down Wotherspoon given their lack of depth on the left side of the defense. The other thing that might make Pittsburgh hesitant is what just developed between the team and Ryan Shea. The Penguins are likely to lose Shea in free agency after he had a breakout campaign this past year. The 29-year-old Shea was terrific this season, posting six goals and 29 assists in 80 games while playing nearly 19 minutes a night. Like Wotherspoon, it was Shea’s first solid NHL season, and it’s tough to gauge what kind of contract is fair, much like the Wotherspoon negotiations. The difference with Shea is that he is a year ahead of Wotherspoon in his pursuit of free agency, and he will ultimately get paid the big money first.
The advantage for Wotherspoon, if he goes into the season without an extension, is that if he has another terrific year, he will likely fetch more term and money than Shea should this summer, which has to be appealing for a player who has never made more than $1MM in any one NHL season. The flip side for Wotherspoon is that if he falters, teams might see his breakout this year as a mirage and wonder whether he is closer to a third-pairing defenseman than a top-pairing defenseman.
While Wotherspoon is weighing the option of securing long-term money or rolling the dice for big money and a long-term deal, the Penguins are on the opposite side of the coin. Locking up Wotherspoon after one great season would be a big gamble, one most teams might have been hesitant to absorb in years past. But with Pittsburgh’s cap situation and the salary cap rising, the Penguins might be in a great spot to gamble on a Wotherspoon extension to try to lock him up cheaply, that is, if they believe he is the real deal top-four defenseman.
The one caveat for Pittsburgh, and the thing that might make them pause when it comes to signing Wotherspoon long term, is that they currently have an albatross contract in Ryan Graves on their left side. You have to wonder whether GM Dubas thinks long and hard before offering big money to a left-handed defenseman with such a small sample size of success.
Time will tell us what the Penguins do, but one thing is for sure. The Penguins will talk to Wotherspoon’s representation this summer to do their due diligence before deciding how to proceed, and those talks will ultimately dictate the direction of negotiations.
Assessing The Senators’ Inability To Retain Stars Long Term
Dating back to their origins in the early 1990s, the Ottawa Senators have seen a number of stars and superstars leave for other teams for various reasons. As you comb through their past, Ottawa has never been able to draft, develop, and retain a star player for their entire career, and rarely beyond their second NHL contract. Of course, it has happened again this week with the trade of Brady Tkachuk to the Florida Panthers, leaving Senators fans once again wondering why stars always depart Canada’s national capital.
Now, in fairness to the Senators, there are many teams in the NHL that haven’t been able to keep players for their entire careers. After all, even Michael Jordan famously put on a Washington Wizards uniform at the end of his NBA career. And Wayne Gretzky wore four different NHL jerseys. But most teams have at least one star who has remained with that organization for the entire run of their career, and most, if not all, teams have retained a star for the entire duration of their third NHL contract. Yet, for whatever reason, Ottawa struggles to do that consistently, and it has to be concerning going forward, as their current star players will be looking for a third contract in the near future.
Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza are two stars who were drafted and developed by the Senators and then signed a third contract with the Senators. They might, in fact, be the only two who did so, but even in Spezza’s case, he was traded to the Dallas Stars with one year remaining on that third contract after he’d asked for a trade. And that is a common theme for the Senators during their tenure in the NHL.
Now, in fairness to Ottawa, their first 10-12 years in the NHL were marked by financial difficulties, which often meant trading away star players when they became unaffordable. This became particularly apparent in their early 2000s trade of star Alexei Yashin to the New York Islanders. Yashin wanted a big payday, and Ottawa opted to move him on his way, taking back Zdeno Chara, the second overall pick (which became Spezza), and Bill Muckalt. The deal was a massive win for Ottawa, but it did start a trend of stars either being moved out or moving on their own.
The story was similar for Marian Hossa, Chara, Wade Redden, Dany Heatley, Alfreddsson, Spezza, Erik Karlsson, and Mark Stone. Not all of those players were drafted by Ottawa, but most were developed into premier assets in Ottawa, and none of them stayed for the long haul.
Now, the interesting part is that they all left for different reasons. For some, it was money; for others, it was opportunity. But at the end of the day, the Senators have never held onto that star player for the long haul, unless you count defenseman Chris Phillips, who had a nice career but was hardly a star.
So all of that leads us to this week and the Brady Tkachuk saga, which has now ended with a trade to the Florida Panthers. Tkachuk reportedly asked for a trade at some point this summer, and the Senators moved quickly to facilitate the transaction to avoid distraction. Much will be made of Tkachuk’s request and the potential reasons behind it, which could range from family considerations to geographical ones. In any event, Tkachuk joins a long list of Senators stars who left quite early in their careers for other teams.
In some cases, the stars who left went on to find great success. Stone, Hossa and Chara went on to win Stanley Cups with their respective teams. By contrast, other former Sens stars hit rock bottom, in particular Heatley, who never came close to matching his production in Ottawa, played just six seasons in the NHL after a trade to the San Jose Sharks, and saw his NHL career end at just 34 years of age. Redden was another former Senators star who was essentially banished to the AHL because of his contract and rode the bus for a few seasons before eventually retiring.
The most notable star to leave Ottawa was Alfredsson, who departed after an illustrious Senators career at age 40. Now, Alfredsson was a special case, having signed multiple extensions with Ottawa, but he joined the Red Wings in July 2013 because he viewed it as an opportunity to chase a Stanley Cup. This has been true of several other stars as well, as the Senators have seen their window of contention run its course, forcing the team to move out their stars. This was the case with both Stone and Karlsson, as they were approaching free agency and Ottawa was about to enter a rebuild. It’s hard to fault the team for looking to recoup assets in either case, and in the Karlsson case, they were able to get an absolute haul for their three-time Norris Trophy winner.
At the end of the day, Ottawa’s far from the only team to have contentious endings with their star players, but they do seem to have an issue keeping them into their 30s, which may or may not be the worst thing, depending on how you look at it. Sure, the players’ legacies may not be cemented in Ottawa because they played for other teams as long or longer than they played for Ottawa. However, the Senators recouped assets for many of these players and didn’t overpay them through their 30s.
That likely doesn’t give many Senators fans peace of mind, as they’ve had to watch countless stars leave for greener pastures. This week’s Tkachuk trade reminded them of that. With many stars still in the fold in Ottawa, the team and the fans will be hoping that the likes of Tim Stützle and Jake Sanderson hang around for the long haul to take the team to new levels of success. One thing that should give Senators fans some silver lining is that most of the players who have left Ottawa in recent memory have done so because the team was closing its competitive window, and for right now and the near future, Ottawa’s window should remain wide open.