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Lightning Notes: Koekkoek, Callahan, Bishop

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After trading Nikita Nesterov the other day to the Montreal Canadiens for a relatively small return, some thought that it would open the door for Slater Koekkoek’s return to the team. Don’t count on it, as Steve Yzerman told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times yesterday.

He’s an important part of our future, and I see a very bright future for him still. So if we need a left shot or we feel Slater will come up and play a lot, then I’ll bring him back up.

That’s a good point when it comes to the former 10th-overall pick. If he’s not going to play big minutes with the club, it may be better for his development to stay in the AHL. With Victor Hedman, Jason Garrison and Braydon Coburn locked into the left-side, it doesn’t seem like there would be a lot of time for him.

  • The team is looking to pull off more moves in the near future, but one player that hasn’t been approached yet is Ryan Callahan. The injured alternate captain has just four points this season and holds a full no-movement clause in his contract. That means he’ll force protection in the upcoming expansion draft, a spot that the Lightning could really use for a different player. Players can opt to waive their NMC in order to be exposed at the draft, but since they’ve earned the right to have it in their contracts it’s hard to ask them.
  • Smith says that the team does want to move Ben Bishop if possible before losing him for nothing this summer. The upcoming free agent has had a season troubled by injuries and inconsistency but still represents a potential upgrade in net for many contenders. A two-time finalist for the Vezina trophy, Bishop holds a career .919 save percentage.
  • One of the reasons for the Nesterov trade apparently was Luke Witkowski, who the team didn’t want to lose on waivers. Instead they dealt Nesterov, who would have been a restricted free agent this summer for a team that will have a real cap crunch. Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat and Jonathan Drouin will all need new deals this summer.

Projecting John Tavares’ Next Contract

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True superstars don’t hit the open market very often. When Steven Stamkos got close enough to talk to other teams in the negotiating window last summer, it was as close as you’d ever expect a player of that caliber in his prime to get to unrestricted free agency. Stamkos eventually signed on June 29th, a day that will live in hockey infamy (due to the massive trades that also happened within minutes of the Lightning re-signing). Thus, it was technically an extension that Stamkos signed, as he’d not yet become a free agent.

This weekend at the all-star game, a player who has been linked to Stamkos for a long time made his feelings clear about a possible extension. John Tavares, the superstar center that has been mired in New York (and not that New York) for the first part of his career told the media that he’d be open to an extension come July 1st, and that he liked the direction the organization was heading. Now, whether or not you agree with him on liking the direction GM Garth Snow and company are headed in, it’s a big deal that Tavares would come out so publicly in support of at least a negotiation.

So the question now becomes what would an extension look like. Tavares has one more season on his current deal, which will pay him $6MM (with a $5.5MM cap hit) and contains a full no-movement clause. He signed that deal back in 2011, before he’d even turned 21. Now 26, any extension he signs will start when he’s heading into his age-28 season almost two years older than Stamkos was.

It’s with Stamkos that the comparison has to begin. The two were the first overall selections in back to back years, and faced each other countless times in junior. They were even teammates at 17 for Canada at the World Juniors, while battling near the top of the OHL scoring charts (with another future first-overall selection in Taylor Hall). Stamkos’ deal then is a good starting point for projecting what Tavares will get.

It’s that though that poses so much difficulty, because of their distinct situations. As mentioned, Tavares is due to hit free agency later than Stamkos and doesn’t quite have the resume of the Lightning sniper. As surprising as it may be, Tavares lags behind in most categories including individual awards and team success. The Lightning have been players deep into the playoffs, while the Islanders have won just a single playoff round with Tavares. Stamkos has two Maurice Richard trophies for the league’s top goal scorer, while amazingly Tavares has only come relatively close to an award during the lockout-shortened season.

Stamkos received an eight-year deal from the Lightning, with an average annual value of $8.5MM. Many saw this as a steal for Tampa Bay, as there were numbers bandied about as high as $12MM from the Toronto Maple Leafs. With the blue-and-white shadow looming over Tavares as well (another home-town boy) $8.5 is an interesting starting point for an extension. Even if Stamkos did take a bit off to stay in Tampa, there are only seven forwards who earn more on a per-year basis than him in the league, and four of them were just named to the NHL’s top-100 players of all time (and another should have been, but I digress).  While Tavares simply doesn’t have the numbers to approach Stamkos – he has scored .92 points per game to Stamkos’ .99 – many believe he is the better defensive player and doesn’t have the injury history that the Lightning forward does.

Anze Kopitar, a center who lags behind Tavares offensively but is considered among the best defensive forwards in the game just got $10MM per season for the next eight years, and it seems like that may actually be closer to what the Islanders will have to dish out. While the real number will likely fall somewhere in between, it’s not out of the question that Tavares could get the largest annual value ever should he wait to hit the open market. Like Stamkos before him a bidding war would likely open, and with the loss of that eighth year possibility (contracts are capped at seven years once a player hits unrestricted free agency), the AAV would likely go up.

For the Islanders, signing Tavares is obviously a huge priority. But after committing long term to Andrew Ladd and having $6MM tied up in an under-performing and rapidly aging Johnny Boychuk it won’t be an easy task. The team has a lot of money tied up in players that aren’t giving them a chance at the Stanley Cup, meaning this superstar may just hold out a little longer to really see what direction the team is headed in for the next eight years.

2017 Prospect Update: Patrick, Liljegren, Hischier

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Amazingly, the 2017 NHL entry draft is now less than five months away, and teams are starting to really dig into their draft boards to find that next superstar talent. The draft is an odd one this year, since the top two players have faced injury and inconsistency and didn’t take part in the World Juniors at all.

Nolan Patrick is still the consensus top talent and should go first overall, but has missed a huge chunk of his season due to injury. He make a triumphant comeback in early January with a four-point night, and is about to take part in the top prospects game tomorrow. The centerman from Winnipeg has 17 points in 11 games this season for the Brandon Wheat Kings, and will have front offices drooling over him come this summer.

An interesting connection is that of Kelly McCrimmon, who is now the assistant general manager in Vegas and was the GM in Brandon when Patrick made his debut. The Golden Knights have a chance in the lottery equal to that of the third-last place team, giving them a real chance to make him their franchise’s first selection. While his season hasn’t gone the way one had hoped, his stock hasn’t fallen nearly enough for him to be challenged for the top spot – yet.

That second spot is becoming a bit more contested though, with Timothy Liljegren not being the lock he once was thought as. The Swedish defenseman that some say has a ceiling as high as Erik Karlsson struggled in the first division before being loaned down to Timra. While this by no means hinders his development, with the explosion of a few other names it’s no guarantee that he goes second. Like Jesse Puljujarvi last season, if a team believes they have a bigger need a different position Liljegren may drop a spot. Anyone that gets him will be excited, as he can do everything on the ice and should be a star in the league for a long time.

With the top two prospects out of the World Junior’s, the stage was open for other names to impress scouts and perhaps vault themselves into the discussion at the tops of draft boards. Nico Hischier did just that, showing the world that he should be considered as one of the very top prospects in the world. Some draft boards likely already have him ahead of Liljegren, and his play for the Halifax Mooseheads hasn’t changed that. With 68 points in 40 games as a rookie, Hischier only turned 18 three weeks ago and is already a dominant centerman. He’ll undoubtedly set the record as the highest-drafted Swiss player ever, topping Nino Niederreiter’s fifth-overall selection.

One more name to keep an eye on is Owen Tippett. The young forward is currently second in the OHL with 36 goals and has elite scoring senses from anywhere in the offensive zone. He is flying up draft boards and may even make it into the top five by the year’s end. Though he plays the wing, he may even jump over center ice prospects like Casey Mittlestadt and Gabriel Vilardi, both of whom are projected for the top-10.

Trade Currency: Surplus Draft Picks

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Trade time is upon us, with the NHL deadline coming just a month from now. While the players take a few days off for the All-Star break, front offices are busy setting up a plan for the next few weeks – unless you’re Joe Sakic that is, who took part in the Celebrity Shootout this afternoon and tapped in a goal.

One of the things team’s use most during this time to add depth to their teams are draft picks. Last year, 13 picks changed hands on deadline day itself, with another handful in the days prior. For teams looking to add for a playoff run, draft picks feel much easier to part with than roster players.

Going into this deadline, some teams have more picks accumulated from prior deals to work with. Here is a breakdown of a few teams that might be buyers, and have extra 2017 picks to dangle in trade talks.

Carolina Hurricanes – New York Rangers’ 2nd-round selection, New Jersey’s 3rd-round selection.

Carolina acquired the Rangers’ second-rounder when they dealt Eric Staal at the deadline last year. The Devils’ third-rounder is one that came with conditions, though they were likely met when Andrei Loktionov went back to the KHL. The Hurricanes could use some help if they’re going to catch anyone in the Metropolitan division.

Chicago Blackhawks – Carolina’s 5th-round selection, St. Louis’ 5th-round selection, New York Islanders’ 6th-round selection.

The Blackhawks will be using anything they can to add at the deadline, meaning these three extra picks could come in handy. They could also use them to beef up a farm system that has continued to develop replacements for players lost to salary cap crunches.

Edmonton Oilers – St. Louis’ 3rd-round selection, Vancouver’s 5th-round selection

Both extra picks the Oilers have are conditional, but unless Nail Yakupov has a tremendous second-half, it looks like neither will change from this season. A team that hasn’t been a buyer in a long time, they have enough young players to sacrifice some draft talent.

Montreal Canadiens – Washington’s 2nd-round selection.

The Habs got a couple of second-round picks when they moved Lars Eller this summer, meaning they’ll have some extra currency when the deadline comes around. It’ll be interesting to see if Montreal uses their draft picks instead of prospect capital to make a move at the deadline.

Philadelphia Flyers – Boston’s 3rd-round selection, Philadelphia’s 4th-round selection.

The Flyers have had a rough stretch after starting so well, but after beating the Maple Leafs on Thursday night are currently back in a playoff spot. If they decide that they can still push, they could use these extra picks in a package. Goaltending and defense is on their mind, but they’d obviously have to include more than the mid-round picks.

Toronto Maple Leafs – San Jose’s 2nd-round pick, Ottawa’s 2nd-round pick.

The Maple Leafs already owe Anaheim one of the two picks from the Frederik Andersen trade last summer, but could still use the other one to help them back into the playoffs for the first time since the shortened season. The Shanaplan says to build slow through the draft, but with the extra pick the team could add some veteran depth to a blueline that still has trouble defending.

Latest On The Colorado Avalanche

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The trade deadline is just a month away, and teams are circling like vultures over the bottom feeders in the NHL. They smell blood in the waters of Colorado, with media and fan pressure to shake up the team and start again. This core, though still quite young, is apparently about to be broken up. Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are the most common names mentioned, and Adrian Dater of the Bleacher Report revealed what one source tells him it would cost to land one of them.

“At bare minimum it’ll take young, established D player and 1st round pick to get either Duchene or Landy”, Dater tweeted Saturday afternoon following it up by saying though Sakic could possibly get more, he’d likely do it for that package. This comes on the heels of an earlier report from Bruce Garrioch of the Ottawa Sun that said it would cost a young defenseman, first-round pick and a top prospect.

For the Avalanche, who sit in last place in the entire NHL and are on pace for an astonishingly-low season total of 50 points (the Toronto Maple Leafs finished 30th last season with 69 points) it’s clearly a frustrating time. The team has three forwards who are legitimate stars in Duchene, Landeskog and Nathan MacKinnon and an emerging talent in Mikko Rantanen, but haven’t been able to put together anything this season. For Landeskog especially this has been a tough year, scoring just 17 points through the first half of the season.

Any team looking to add one of the Colorado forwards has to be wary of their contracts, as both carry hefty cap-hits for the next few years (Landeskog has four years left while Duchene only has two). Both players do come with quite a history of success however, and are young enough to fit into pretty much any stage in a team’s development.

Snapshots: Olympics, Waivers, Hurricanes Sale

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In what proved to be a short meeting, the NHL Board of Governors met today to discuss the 2018 Olympics and whether the league will be participating. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly reported to Frank Seravalli of TSN that the meeting lasted just ten seconds, and said there was nothing new to report.

It’s looking more and more like the league will not be headed to the Pyeong Chang games, though some players have expressed that they will go regardless of the league’s decision. It’s hard to imagine players like Alex Ovechkin leaving their team in the middle of the season, but it may come to that. For his part, Capitals owner Ted Leonsis has said he would support his superstar winger if he did decide to go against the NHL’s wishes.

  • Erik Erlendsson of Lightning Insider reports that Michael Bournival and Gabriel Dumont have both cleared waivers today, though both are currently still with the NHL team. The two player transaction represents the latest in what will be a busy few weeks for GM Steve Yzerman. Starting on Thursday, what some believe may become a fire-sale kicked off with the dealing of Nikita Nesterov to the Montreal Canadiens. The team has a lot more work to do as it works to protect itself from the expansion draft.
  • Tampa has also re-assigned Jake Dotchin back to the AHL according to Bryan Burns of NHL.com, oddly enough without any mention of Bournival or Dumont. Perhaps something is brewing with the recently waived forwards. Dotchin has played three games for the Lightning this year and was held scoreless.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes owner Peter Karmanos told Pierre LeBrun of ESPN that he’s now willing to sell the entire franchise, not just a part of it as previously reported. Karmanos has been looking for a buyer for a while now, but has previously been quoted as saying he would guarantee it stays in North Carolina. Obviously, if he were to sell the entire thing he wouldn’t be able to make that guarantee, though he could refuse to make a deal with anyone planning on a relocation. With the Canes floundering at the bottom of the Eastern Conference and still unable to draw a decent crowd each night, perhaps relocation does fall in their future. For now, we’ll keep an eye on any potential buyers the team may be in contact with.

John Tavares Open To Extension With Islanders

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Talking to Christ Johnston of Sportsnet at the All-Star Game in Los Angeles, New York Islanders superstar John Tavares revealed that he would be open to an extension with the team this summer. The centerman has just one year remaining on his current deal, which pays him $5.5MM per season.

Since he entered the league there has been unsubstantiated rumors that Tavares would welcome a return to him hometown of Toronto, but just like a long list of players before him it doesn’t seem like there is any truth to the matter. Tavares has made it clear that he’s open to returning to the Islanders, saying he is “excited about where the organization is headed.”

The Islanders are an interesting case. After making it to the playoffs the past two seasons and even winning a round last year, the team let two of their top names leave in the latest round of free agency. Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen both signed big deals elsewhere (Buffalo and Detroit respectively) and join Tavares at the All-Star game festivities. In their wake, the team signed Andrew Ladd to a seven-year contract but has seen the winger put up the worst year of his career and be unable to find any chemistry with Tavares early on.

While they’ll be paying Ladd until 2023, the team needs to lock up Tavares to have any chance at staying relevant long-term. The 26-year old is having another excellent season, with 19 goals and 40 points through his first 47 games. Skating most with Anders Lee and Josh Bailey, Tavares just hasn’t been able to find the elite talent that could project him and the Islanders to the next level.

The team will have plenty of cap-room for an extension, with Mikhail Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, Jason Chimera, Thomas Hickey and Jaroslav Halak all coming off the books that summer. Whether any of them are re-signed is still up for debate, but none of their play warrants a substantial amount of money going forward. Johnny Boychuk, signed for another five seasons after this with a cap hit of $6MM per, poses the biggest problem contract-wise for the Islanders, though they also will have a handful of restricted free agents to sign in the 2018 offseason.

Afternoon Snapshots: Duchene, Wings’ Contracts, McLellan

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Bruce Garrioch from the Ottawa Sun reports that it will cost a lot for the Ottawa Senators to acquire the Avalanche’s Matt Duchene. He adds that it would behoove the Sens to wait on any potential deal for Duchene. According to Garrioch, it would cost upwards to a first round pick, a top four defenseman, and a top prospect. Garrioch adds that the requests are “fantasy” like, and that Colorado might even ask for more should the trade market yield little fruit in the way of impact players. Though Pierre Dorion is looking to improve the roster, he won’t be that desperate to give up so much.

In other news around the league:

  • TSN’s Travis Yost breaks down the nightmarish contracts the Red Wings have and it appears as bleak as it looks. He lists Henrik Zetterberg’s deal as one that will bog the team down as he ages, noting that Zetterberg is not producing as he once did. He adds that Frans Nielsen is not living up to his rich and long term contract, but that at only 32, he’s still movable. It’s the contracts for Darren Helm and Justin Abdelkader where Yost sharpens his criticism as the Wings threw money away on players hardly worth the financial investment (a combined $8.1MM cap hit). Those that passed the test? Gustav Nyquist. Though paid to be a goal scorer, Yost points out that Nyquist is a core player and there are other arguments out there defending Nyquist’s value. Mike Green is another name Yost brings up as worth the money. Regardless, it’s another indication that unless Ken Holland is prudent and crafty, the Wings are in for tough times ahead.
  • The Edmonton Journal’s Kurt Leavins believes that Edmonton bench boss Todd McLellan doesn’t get the credit he deserves in the Oilers’ turnaround. An underrated catalyst to the success of the Oilers, McLellan has Leavins’ vote for the Jack Adams Award, given annually to the league’s best coach. To turn around a decade’s long culture of losing is impressive in itself. Leavins even points out that McLellan, a patient man who gets coaching advice while at Edmonton gas stations, is more than willing to accept blame for the team’s failures. Regardless of who deserves the credit for the Oilers turnaround, Leavins feels it’s a disservice to not give McLellan the lion’s share of the kudos.

Trade Candidates: Tomas Tatar

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

With the Red Wings on the outside looking in, several names are popping up as potential trade pieces for a team looking more seriously at rebuilding. One name that continues to generate interest, and who was rumored to be asked about by the Chicago Blackhawks, is Tomas Tatar.

Contract

Tatar is in the final year of a three-year, $8.25MM deal and will be a restricted free agent this summer. Expected to get a pay raise, it’s one of many reasons he’s an option to be moved.

2016-17

Much has been written about the Red Wings’ struggles this season, and Tatar has been a lightning rod for much of that criticism. Through 49 games, Tatar has 23 points (11-12), which isn’t nearly good enough for a player counted on to score more than 20 goals, and flirt with 30. Though criticism is there, it’s not entirely warranted. Tatar has been one of Detroit’s better players this season, despite his numbers. Much has been made of the Red Wings’ awkward lineup construction, and insistence on playing individuals with “grit” or those who are penalty kill “specialists” (Luke Glendening, Drew Miller) and offer little else in goal scoring or generating scoring chances.

Season Stats

49 games: 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points, -2; 51.7% CF%; 16:43 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The Chicago Blackhawks are already one team rumored to have inquired about Tatar. He provides two positives. First, Tatar is under club control. Two, he is an undervalued asset being in Detroit. Placed on a dominant team like the Blackhawks, he would immediately contribute with talent like Jonathan Toews centering a line, or with other team’s best lines focusing on Patrick Kane’s line. Tatar would also be valuable on the man advantage Detroit’s historically bad power play has made everyone look bad, including Tatar.

His affordable salary could make him one of the better options in fitting in financially with the cap-challenged Hawks.

Likelihood Of A Trade

Everything is based on Ken Holland’s philosophy. He’ll either sell or “stand pat” based on the team’s fortunes in late February. But after losing 4-0 to the rising Maple Leafs, one wonders how Holland can sit back and just stand pat instead of recognizing that the Red Wings needs draft picks and prospects to expedite what looks to be a rebuilding effort. Further, I’m not entirely sure the Wings are ready to give up on Tatar. Holland especially is notoriously loyal to his players. Especially those drafted and developed by Holland.

Strapped with several bad contracts, needing to sign other players, and due a raise, Tatar remains one of many options to be moved by the trade deadline.

NHL Names Top 100 Players Of All Time

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Last night on the NBC Sports Network, the NHL released the top 100 players of all time and the debate, which has raged long before this was released, will continue on. Hosted by actor Jon Hamm, the ceremony honored players by decade, and categorized them by goalies, defensemen, and forwards.

The first thirty-three were released on New Years Day during the Centennial Classic in Toronto. The players named in the first thirty-three were active between 1917-1966. The rest, named last night, have played from 1967 to the present day.

There were a number of story lines:

  • Jonas Siegel of the Canadian Press wrote that Mario Lemieux, Bobby Orr, and Wayne Gretzky agree that Gordie Howe is the greatest hockey player of all time. Gretzky added that while Sidney Crosby is the greatest in the game today, Connor McDavid is making the case to “chase him” as the next in line.
  • Speaking of Crosby’s generation, the selection of the more recent players to the top 100 caused quite the debate around the hockey world. The arguments boil down into a couple ways: either include more current players by subtracting players from other decades or be more selective in the current generation. The six on the current list were Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Crosby, and Alex Ovechkin.
  • The Score’s Sean O’Leary thinks that Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla, and Joe Thornton should have “cracked” the list. O’Leary believes that Malkin is a lock for the top 100, while Iginla, though never winning a Cup, was a dominant force in the league, scoring 617 goals in his long (and still active) career.
  • Curtis Pashelka also wonders why Joe Thornton isn’t included on the list. His stats alone seem to qualify him for the top 100, but the lack of a Stanley Cup makes Pashelka think that it kept Thornton out of the illustrious club.
  • Finally, Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski includes his list of snubs which name the aforementioned Iginla, Malkin, and Thornton. But Wyshysnki also lists Zdeno Chara, Ed Belfour, Dale Hawerchuk, and Pierre Pilote as players deserving of inclusion.

 

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