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Offseason Keys: New Jersey Devils

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While the expansion draft is set to headline a busy NHL offseason, there are still several other storylines for each team in the months ahead. Here is a closer look at what lies ahead for the New Jersey Devils.

Last offseason, Devils GM Ray Shero took a big swing with the addition of Taylor Hall up front in the hopes that he would bolster their offense.  That didn’t exactly happen as the team managed one fewer goal scored than they did in 2015-16.  Their blueline struggled with the loss of Adam Larsson and as a result, they were near the top of the league in goals allowed.  Not surprisingly, those two issues resulted in a tie for 27th place overall meaning that it’s time to go back to the drawing board for Shero who has a few intriguing decisions to make this summer.

The Number One Pick – Keep Or Trade?

While there weren’t many good things happening on the ice in New Jersey, they did get some good news off it with their victory in the NHL Draft Lottery.  Unfortunately for them, this draft class lacks the top flight star that we’ve seen the last couple of years while there isn’t even a consensus top selection.

Accordingly, many wonder if this might be an appropriate time to deal the top pick away.  There isn’t a whole lot of precedent for doing so but with young, cheap, and controllable talent being much more valuable now in the salary cap era, the Devils could potentially land a core player that could make an impact right away.

If they decide to keep the pick, it’s likely between a pair of centers for the top spot in Nolan Patrick (Brandon, WHL) and Nico Hischier (Halifax, QMJHL).  Patrick is more of the all-around player but Hischier could certainly be enticing to a team that still needs to add some offensive punch to their lineup.

The Kovalchuk Situation

Although Ilya Kovalchuk retired from NHL action in 2013 and the team is eating a small cap hit of $250K per season through 2024-25 in salary cap recapture, the Devils are poised to facilitate a move that will allow them to get something for a player that isn’t playing for them.

Apr 25, 2013; Newark, NJ, USA; New Jersey Devils right wing Ilya Kovalchuk (17) skates with the puck during the second period of their game against the Pittsburgh Penguins at the Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY SportsKovalchuk has made it known that he would like to take himself off the Voluntary Retired List and return to NHL action next season.  He can do so and enter free agency if the 30 other teams approve.  That’s not going to happen which opens up a sign-and-trade scenario.

While the 34 year doesn’t appear to have much interest in returning to New Jersey, the team still has some leverage in that they have to get good enough value in a deal to entice them to facilitate Kovalchuk’s return, especially given the weak free agent market up front in terms of impact forwards.  It’s not likely that they’ll command a premium return but Shero should be able to at least add an asset or two which, for someone that ‘retired’ a few years ago, is still not bad.  He could opt to try to add draft picks but he could also wind up with a player in return, especially if the acquiring team needs to shed some salary to fit Kovalchuk onto their payroll.

Add Defensive Help

The Devils didn’t have the deepest of defense corps before they moved Larsson last offseason and they certainly missed his presence on the back end in 2016-17.  They’re missing a true shutdown defender that can anchor a penalty kill and be counted on in late game situations and while John Moore scored 12 goals this season, he’s far from the key offensive threat that any team with eyes on a playoff push needs.

Accordingly, expect the blueline to be something New Jersey will focus on this offseason.  If they do dangle the number one pick, they could potentially add a core defender with several years of team control which.  It’s unlikely that they’ll do the opposite of last year and trade a key forward for a defender but they could conceivably look to the trade route to upgrade their bottom half.

It also wouldn’t be surprising to see Shero take a run at the biggest fish on the back end in free agency in Kevin Shattenkirk.  The Devils have just $51.6MM committed in payroll for next season and have the cap space to make a big splash.  There are several other players who could step in and play a top four role for them so there’s a good chance that they will be look to be active on the open market in July.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Course Adjustment For Colorado

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Colorado needs to determine the road ahead for its franchise. The unexpected plummet to the 4th overall pick in the draft lottery did not help matters, to be sure, but the Avalanche need more than a Nolan Patrick to catapult them back into contention. The team has lacked identity for years and a team philosophy is hard to isolate. The team finished a league worst 22 wins, good for an embarrassingly bad 48 points. They were not expected to be serious cup contenders coming into the year, but this is a team that had veteran scorers and a decent goaltending duo to back up their young forward core. Yet they finished in dead last in both offensive and defensive categories – 1.74 goals for per 60, and 2.93 goals against. With such an incredible disparity it’s actually impressive they won as many contests as they did.

GM Joe Sakic needs to determine which pieces of his core (if any) are worth keeping. It seems probable that the team could consider trading away its captain in Gabriel Landeskog, and the case for doing so is strong. He potted only 18 goals and 15 assists this season, his 5th full campaign – at the exorbitant price of $5.5 MM (which will become $6 MM next season). The center has never developed into the offensive threat the franchise had hoped when he was selected 2nd overall in 2011. His point totals have dropped for the second season in a row. However, his Corsi For % was actually his career best at 52.8, and on a team that bled goals and chances, he performed admirably in his own end. Whether he is worth his deal is certainly a less pressing issue than stopping the bleeding. Unless an over-payment comes along the Avalanche would be wise to stick out at least another season with the still-promising left wing.

Speedy forward Matt Duchene is two years older, and fared only marginally better, with 18 goals and 23 assists. Duchene is not physically imposing a 5’11”, and he is more effective on the rush. His speed and versatility are his greatest assets. Duchene’s skating can burn defenders and his skating is among the tops in the league. When considering that the quick and fleet-footed Nathan MacKinnon is also on the team, it seems that Colorado might want to double down on the speed aspect of their negligible identity. Duchene would almost certainly draw more interest than Landeskog, as the forward did pot 30 goals just the previous season. Although the talk seems distant now, there was considerable conversation following the 2009 draft that the Islanders would have done better to draft Duchene than John Tavares. This is a player who can make a meaningful difference on the playmaking side of things, but saw a drastic drop off in play. Trading Duchene seems the most logical option, but his departure will only leave the center ice position more lackluster.

The Avalanche could toy with moving RFA center Mikhail Grigorenko, or RFA defenseman Patrick Wiercioch, but the returns after last season would be marginal at best. One can only assume that Sakicc attempted to unload forwards like Blake Comeau ($2.5 MM), and now UFA defenseman Fedor Tyutin to no avail. Thankfully the well-worn Jarome Iginla was shipped off to Los Angeles and there are indeed older players coming off the books. The 35 year-old Rene Bourque and 32 year-old John Mitchell will both be UFAs and will have difficulty finding work next season in the league.

Ultimately, the problem for the Avalanche wasn’t that their stars didn’t produce, although that certainly didn’t help their goal totals. Their team was filled with washed-up veterans and outside of the big 3 on offense there was really no threat to score. On the backend, once Erik Johnson went down, the rest of the defense was not nearly good enough to keep up. Tyson Barrie is the only player who should feel remotely safe, and the young RFA Nikita Zadorov is likely to hang around. Francois Beauchemin is not the defender he was even two seasons ago, and if he could somehow be traded it would help performance substantially.

Trading away the #4 selection is usually an unthinkable notion with a team at this stage of a rebuild, but if they can move it for substantial help on defense or on the wing, it should be considered. Especially considering how mediocre this draft class is, it might turn out to be a prudent maneuver. One of Landeskog or Duchene seems likely to depart, but without a king’s ransom coming back, it’s not likely to alter long-term prospects for the franchise. Colorado simply needs to draft better, develop better, and find a coach with the structure that a young, struggling squad will need. If they could make a serious pitch to Karl Alzner this off-season, or perhaps even Thomas Vanek on the wing, they would be in a better position to compete on a nightly basis. Their offensive stars are unlikely to be quite as dreadful in points production yet again. Perhaps the most positive aspect of the upcoming season will be the infusion of youth from the minor leagues, and the ditching of dead weight up and down the lineup. Sakic will need to provide stability for the franchise and perhaps even display some patience rather than dumping a slumping offensive talent for a lackluster package. Although fans may wish for change at any cost, ditching their core players for scraps is not likely the best way forward. Whatever course Colorado decides to take, fans around the league will be watching with interest this summer.

Should Flyers Consider Moving No. 2 Pick?

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One week ago, Philadelphia Flyers’ general manager Ron Hextall said he would listen to trade offers for his recently won No. 2 overall pick in this year’s NHL Draft, which created some discussion on whether a team should consider doing that. The Flyers are hardly at the bottom of the pack as they leapfrogged most of the struggling teams to go from the 13th overall pick to the second pick. The belief is they could trade the pick, which would likely net them a young Nolan Patrick or a Nico Hischier, and bring in a huge package that could net them success immediately. (Even possible rumors of Colorado packing Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog have been suggested as a possibility.)

CSN Philly’s writers Tom Dougherty, Jordan Hall and Greg Paone discussed the pros and cons of whether Hextall should even be receptive to moving the pick. Dougherty writes that the team can’t even consider the move. It was the biggest jump in NHL lottery history and shouldn’t be taken for granted. He believes the teams should hold onto either Patrick or Hischier and continue building from there.

Hall is quick to point out that Hextall’s strategy has been to build a franchise from within, so why would the Flyers GM change suddenly. Even if this isn’t the strongest draft, the No. 2 pick should get them one top-notch playmaker and that will only make Hextall’s plan more successful. Paone believes that the team should look at it differently, although he is quick to point out that he doesn’t see the Flyers making a trade, but he points out that the draft, in any sport, has too many busts for a team to not consider making a trade. Trading that pick for a young, already established NHL player would make more sense in many ways.

The Flyers have a nice team already with core players Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux, Branden Schenn and Wayne Simmons all about to hit their prime and plenty of youth not far behind. So which is better, adding another piece of youth or packaging that piece for a king’s ransom?

Morning Notes: Seattle, Entry Draft, Hornqvist

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Fans wondering where the next NHL expansion franchise will be got a candid answer from a connected figure today, when player agent Allan Walsh of Octagon Hockey tweeted out a timeline expectation. “Expect an NHL team in Seattle no later than 2020-21, as soon as arena renovations completed” Walsh wrote, while linking to a piece by Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times outlining the interest of two investment groups to increase parking and transit around the KeyArena. While there is still no guarantee that Seattle or the NHL would be ready to form a partnership before the next collective bargaining agreement is signed and put into effect, but this is a good sign for the hockey fans in the Pacific Northwest.

Seattle has long been considered an option for NHL expansion, because of its experience in the past as a professional sports city and the success of the Seattle Thunderbirds (previously the Breakers), who will play in the WHL final for the second consecutive season this year. While it isn’t a done deal by any means, Seattle does look like the next stomping grounds for NHL expansion.

  • NHL.com writers Mike Morreale, Adam Kimelman, and Guillaume Lepage released their first post-lottery mock drafts today, with two of the three expecting the New Jersey Devils to select Nolan Patrick first overall. While the Patrick or Nico Hischier debate for first and second overall rages, it is interesting to note that all three writers had a different player going third overall. Miro Heiskanen, Gabriel Vilardi and Casey Mittelstadt each take a turn in that spot, showing the lack of consensus there is over prospects past the pair of centermen. Some of the most interesting picks may happen from 3-10 this year, with the possibility of more movement than usual on the trade front. Without much of a consensus, it may come down to positional need for some teams, especially because of the depth of centers and defense in this year’s draft.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins say that Brian Dumoulin, Carl Hagelin and Patric Hornqvist are all game-time decisions after missing the morning skate today. Hornqvist had to leave game 2 early after blocking a shot, but has been an extremely effective player once again for the Penguins this playoffs. He already has five points in seven games, but his power-presence makes a big impact on the game even when he doesn’t score. After another 20-goal season that saw him increase his physicality and forechecking dominance, he’ll be a candidate for an early extension this year. At 30, he’ll be entering the final season of his current five-year deal, and will be looking for another long-term contract before he hits free agency.

NHL Draft Lottery Results

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The lottery balls were picked, the cards were flipped, and the New Jersey Devils will be selecting first in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft. New Jersey was the winner of this year’s NHL Draft Lottery, jumping up four spots to take over the top pick. Against all odds, just an 8.5% chance at #1, they will now have their pick of all the top available prospects come Friday, June 23rd. The Philadelphia Flyers will pick second and the Dallas Stars will pick third, as the balls fell their way as well. Philadelphia leaped forward eleven slots and Dallas up five slots.

With three teams “winning” the lottery, it’s a tough pill to swallow for the Colorado Avalanche. One of the worst teams in recent memory, the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche finished the season with just 48 points, 21 less than the Vancouver Canucks at 29th. Yet, the Avs may miss out entirely on selecting a franchise player in a draft without a consensus star atop the charts. It’s also an unfortunate start for the expansion Vegas Golden Knights. Given the same odds at the third-worst team in the league, Vegas will instead select sixth and will be hard-pressed to find a player ready to jump immediately to the NHL, even though they’ll likely be hungry for help.

For Metropolitan Division foes New Jersey and Philadelphia, the question now becomes: who goes #1? Unlike the past two years – Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews – there is no consensus top prospect in 2017. Heading into 2016-17, Canadian forward Nolan Patrick, of the WHL’s Brandon Wheat Kings, was considered the favorite to go first overall. However, after a season filled with injuries, that status is far from a sure thing. The last player to be taken #1 following a final junior season spent mostly on the sidelines was Gord Kluzak by the Boston Bruins in 1982, and Kluzak played only four full NHL seasons before his injuries caught up with him. Patrick did score 46 points in 33 games this season, and racked up 102 points in just 72 games last season, but as they say, “the most important ability is availability”. Flying up draft boards over the last year has been Swiss center Nico Hischier of the QMJHL’s Halifax Mooseheads, and with questions lingering about Patrick, Hischier may wind up as 2017’s top pick. While Hischier doesn’t quite have the size and strength of Patrick, he has all the offensive ability. The swift scorer recorded 86 points in 57 games this season for Halifax and put on a show for Switzerland at the World Juniors.

It’s a difficult choice for the Devils, but one that GM Ray Shero and the New Jersey front office are happy to make. And GM Ron Hextall and the Flyers should be content with the runner-up.

NHL Draft Lottery Notes: Odds, History, Viewing

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For the fourteen teams that missed the playoffs and the expansion Vegas Golden Knights, they have one thing in common: they’re hoping Bill Daly is holding a card with their logo on it, announcing that they have the first overall pick.

At 7pm central, NBC, CBC, and Sportsnet will show the NHL Draft Lottery as the Colorado Avalanche lead all teams in terms of percentage for receiving the #1 pick. Below are the odds:

Colorado Avalanche — 18.0%
Vancouver Canucks — 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights — 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes — 10.3%
New Jersey Devils — 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres — 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings — 6.7%
Dallas Stars — 5.8%
Florida Panthers — 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings — 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes — 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets — 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers — 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning 1.8%
New York Islanders — 0.9%

TSN has a lengthy writeup on the history of the lottery and how the current format differs from other versions. The biggest change for the draft is that instead of the worst team being guaranteed, at worst, a second overall pick, they are only promised a top four pick. This was placed to discourage teams from “tanking” to draft top-end talent, which hasn’t completely negated the idea of tanking as Toronto won the right to draft Auston Matthews last season with the #1 pick while securing the worst record in the NHL.

What’s new to 2017?  From Sportsnet:

For just the second time in NHL draft lottery history, the top three picks are in play. This rule was implemented by the league in 2016 to dull incentive for any team to finish lower in the standings (i.e., tanking).

The odds of winning the second and third draws increases on a proportional basis depending on which team claimed the previous draw.

The addition of a 15th lottery team, Vegas, into the mix also affects the winning percentages.

This draft is different too, since the top two picks for the first time in three seasons are not considered the “generational talent” that Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Matthews or Patrik Laine were when looking back at the one and two overall picks respectively.

This isn’t to besmirch the top two candidates, Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier. After all, “can’t miss” prospects have fooled scouts and analysts before while prospects that scouts didn’t think were as good sometimes exceeded expectations.

But before the talent can be chosen, there needs to be an order. Tonight will determine that.

Specifics: 

Time: 7pm CST
Where to watch: CBC, Sportsnet, NBC

Western Notes: Mazanec, Schmaltz, Draft Rankings

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The Nashville Predators have recalled Marek Mazanec from the Milwaukee Admirals, and will keep him around as an emergency goaltender. The Admirals were eliminated from the AHL playoffs last night, losing 3-2 in overtime to the Grand Rapids Griffins. In a three game series sweep, the Griffins put 10 goals past Mazanec on 106 shots. He’ll practice with the team as a “Black Ace” for the remainder of the playoffs.

Nashville didn’t make any further call ups which is interesting after the news that Kevin Fiala will not be able to return these playoffs. Perhaps Craig Smith or Calle Jarnkrok, who both missed game one after being present in the morning skate will return in time for the next matchup on Friday night.

  • The St. Louis Blues have recalled Jordan Schmaltz from the AHL and returned Petteri Lindbohm. Because they are only allowed three rotating callups, they’ll use Schmaltz as their defensive insurance until his next playoff series starts on May 3rd. The Chicago Wolves defeated the Charlotte Checkers in five games, but are still waiting on the other series’—some of which have played just two games—to finish around the league before moving on to face those Griffins that defeated the Admirals. Schmaltz will likely be sent back down, unless an injury were to strike one of the Blues’ defenders.
  • Bob McKenzie and TSN have released their latest draft rankings, which will be their second-last attempt at figuring out which amateur player is regarded highest around the league. The ranking still has Nolan Patrick at #1, though it is basically a tie between he and Nico Hischier. The team at TSN had to survey 23 different teams to break the deadlock, when they normally just use 10. Patrick and Hischier are followed by Gabe Vilardi from Windsor, and the late rising Miro Heiskanen, who has forced himself into the conversation for the top three. With the top four lottery teams all being from the Western Conference there is a great chance the first pick (and perhaps the second, third and fourth) will belong to one of them.

NHL Central Scouting Releases Final Rankings

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NHL Central Scouting has released their final rankings of the eligible prospects for the 2017 Entry Draft, and Nolan Patrick has retained his #1 spot. Despite an injury-riddled season that saw him miss much of the first half and the entire first round of the playoffs—Brandon was swept without their best player—the Wheat Kings’ superstar will fend off Nico Hischier and his rising stock.

This doesn’t necessarily mean Patrick will be selected first overall by whoever wins the draft lottery, but it does bode well for how confident scouts are with his ability to bounce back from the injuries and still be an impact player at the next level.

Hischier does hold the second spot among North American skaters, while Casey Mittelstadt takes the third spot after his outstanding season split between high school and the USHL. Mittelstadt has already committed to the University of Minnesota, but that won’t stop many teams from picking him in the top five.

Among the other notable rankings is Timothy Liljegren, who at one point was expected to be the second-overall pick in June. Now all the way down at #6 among international skaters, he may be a big prize for a mid-round selection. His draft season has been even worse than Patrick’s, after battling mono early on and fighting for ice time late in the season. He may be the third defenseman off the board behind Cale Makar and Miro Heiskanen.

Jake Oettinger easily climbs to the top ranking among North American goaltenders, and has a chance to go in the first round after his standout season at Boston University. Despite being just 17 for much of the season, Oettinger ranked among the nation’s best goaltenders putting up a .927 save percentage while going 21-11-3.

One of the biggest drops was Maxime Comtois, who was ranked 15th at mid-season but is now listed down at 30. The Victoriaville winger had a very disappointing season, but still possesses the size and offensive ability to make him an interesting choice, especially if he falls into the second round. Any team selecting him would be betting on his future development, instead of evaluating on this season.

Morning Notes: ISS Rankings, Marchand, Girard

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The International Scouting Service (ISS) has released their latest draft rankings, and the center position dominates. Behind Nolan Patrick and Nico Hischier—who are still ranked #1-2 respectively—Gabe Vilardi slides into the #3 slot and twelve other centers appear in the top-31 names. While many of the names down the list don’t project as elite first line players, there is a lot of talent to be had to build a team from the middle. Casey Mittelstadt has jumped to number five, and Timothy Liljegren continues to drop down the list.

A name we’ve said to watch before, Owen Tippett, has moved all the way up into the #4 position and is having a strong playoff run with Mississauga. The Steelheads are through to the next round and will face the Oshawa Generals on Friday. Tippett is the best pure goal scorer in the draft, and will have an interesting case for jumping right to the NHL next season.

  • Brad Marchand will have a hearing with the Department of Player Safety on Thursday, regarding the spearing incident last night. Marchand used his stick to violently spear Jake Dotchin in the groin and was assessed a five minute major and game misconduct. With the Boston Bruins clinching a playoff spot last night, any suspension that took Marchand out for more than two games would leak into the postseason and possibly be devastating for the club. The Hart Trophy candidate has been suspended three times in the past and fined on multiple occasions. His standing as a repeat offender may mean at least one playoff game will be included.
  • The Nashville Predators have assigned Samuel Girard to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL. The 18-year old defenseman was eliminated from the playoffs when Shawinigan lost to Val-d’Or on Sunday. A second-round pick last summer, Girard had 75 points in 59 games and added another nine in five playoff contests. His offensive potential is incredible, and the Predators defense factory has turned undersized players into excellent all-around defenders before.
  • After playing in two games with the Red Wings, Evgeny Svechnikov has been sent back to the AHL. The young winger was held pointless, but scored the shootout winner against the Ottawa Senators on Monday night. He’ll now head down to the Grand Rapids Griffins and try to win a Calder Cup.

Prospect Notes: Comrie, Pilon, Hischier

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The Winnipeg Jets have recalled Eric Comrie, according to Gary Lawless of TSN. The young netminder will meet the team in Columbus, though it is not clear if he will get the start. Comrie was the Jets’ second-round pick in 2013, and has found moderate success in the AHL the past two years. The former WHL standout will be remembered best for his part in the 2015 World Juniors, where he and Team Canada won gold.

The younger (half) brother of former NHLer Mike Comrie, Eric isn’t an imposing figure in the net but has impressive athleticism and anticipation paired with enough size to make him NHL-viable. One of the better goaltending prospects in the league, he will hopefully one day be the answer to the long-standing issues in the Winnipeg net. The Jets rank 28th in the league in save percentage with an .899% mark, only ahead of Dallas and Colorado. If Comrie could provide even league average goaltending down the road, the team would be much better off.

  • As expected, the Hershey Bears have added Garrett Pilon on an amateur tryout now that the Kamloops Blazers have been eliminated from the WHL playoffs. The young center was signed to an entry-level deal with the Washington Capitals last week, and will now join the professional ranks for the remainder of the season. Pilon did everything he could in the Blazers 4-2 series loss at the hands of the Kelowna Rockets, registering four points in six games.
  • Speaking of first round CHL exits, the Halifax Mooseheads were eliminated on Monday and with it comes the end of the road for potential #1 pick Nico Hischier. Still in a battle with Nolan Patrick for that first overall slot, Hischier scored seven points in six games but couldn’t overcome the dominant Rouyn-Noranda Huskies. He and Patrick will now wait for the NHL combine to give one last impression on the top teams.

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