The NHL has released the official odds for the upcoming draft lottery, which determines the order in which each team outside the playoffs will select in this year’s entry draft. The Colorado Avalanche lead the way with an 18% chance of winning, while the Vegas Golden Knights will be given the same odds as the third worst team this season, the Arizona Coyotes at 10.3%. The lottery will be held in Toronto on April 29th. The full odds are as follows:
Colorado Avalanche: 18%
Vancouver Canucks: 12.1%
Vegas Golden Knights: 10.3%
Arizona Coyotes: 10.3%
New Jersey Devils: 8.5%
Buffalo Sabres: 7.6%
Detroit Red Wings: 6.7%
Dallas Stars: 5.8%
Florida Panthers: 5.4%
Los Angeles Kings: 4.5%
Carolina Hurricanes: 3.2%
Winnipeg Jets: 2.7%
Philadelphia Flyers: 2.2%
Tampa Bay Lightning: 1.8%
New York Islanders: 0.9%
In the draft lottery, three teams actually “win”, and have the chance to move up from their finishing position. This means teams currently slotted 1-12 can only move a possible three spots down in the order, and only if teams behind them are selected. Last season, the Maple Leafs were selected first and retained their top spot, though the Columbus Blue Jackets and Winnipeg Jets hopped from fourth and sixth to third and second respectively. Vancouver, who had the third highest odds, dropped to fifth overall.
One will also remember the lottery that gave the Edmonton Oilers Connor McDavid, despite the Buffalo Sabres and Arizona Coyotes both having worse records. It wasn’t the first time Edmonton won a draft lottery, but it looks like it will be the last for at least the next few years, as they’re in the playoffs and will pick in the back half of the first round for the first time since 2005-06.
This year, the top prize is Nolan Patrick who retained his crown as the top rated skater in today’s final release of the NHL Central Scouting rankings. Though he’s not McDavid, every team on this list will be hoping to win the lottery and have the chance of drafting a future #1 center.
Chris Johnston of Sportsnet was the first to tweet out the full odds, though TSN and HockeyViz.com had correct unofficial numbers over a month ago.
Winnipeg did not hop to 3rd. They selected Laine 2nd. Columbus selected 3rd. Don’t know if the positions they hopped from are correct. Too lazy to check.