Flyers’ Bloated Forward Contracts Becoming Issue

The Philadelphia Flyers haven’t seen the second round of the post-season since 2012, and in those 5 seasons since, missed the show entirely 3 times. For a team that spends as much on offense as the Flyers, their production has been incredibly mediocre. Many point to the seemingly never-ending goaltending carousel as the root cause of the team’s woes, and they wouldn’t be entirely incorrect. That said, over the last four seasons, their goals for per 60 minutes (GF60) is good for only 25th league-wide. That puts them above only the Vancouver Canucks, Carolina Hurricanes, Arizona Coyotes, New Jersey Devils, and Buffalo Sabres in that timeframe. In short, their offense has been remarkably underwhelming for years. And yet, the team is allocating $47.32 MM of its available $75 MM to its forward group in 2017-18, with most of that money tied up in only a handful of skaters. For comparison’s sake, that’s more than $5 MM more than their divisional rivals in Pittsburgh or Washington.

Leading the pack in terms of bloated contracts are the team’s captain Claude Giroux and last season’s team-points-leader Jakub Voracek. Neither player is detrimental to the cause – they both have tallied multiple 50+ point seasons with relative consistency. That said, their contracts are some of the most exorbitant in the league. Giroux’s $8.275 MM AAV for the next 5 seasons puts him in an elite group of forwards. So does Voracek’s $8.25 MM for the next 7 seasons. This places them 12th and 13th respectively among the highest paid players league-wide for the 2017-18 season. Giroux’s career PPG is .87, while Voracek’s is a measly .71. Excluding defensemen P.K. Subban and goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, these stats simply don’t match up to the rest of the “elite” group. Jonathan Toews‘ and Anze Kopitar both also account for around .87 PPG, but unarguably do far more on the defensive side of the puck than the simply capable Giroux. One of these bloated contracts alone would be a hindrance; two on the same roster is nearly insurmountable.

Further down the roster, you see other albatross contracts. Valtteri Filppula was acquired by the Flyers to shore up the center position and increase playmaking ability. He only scored 8 points through 20 games in Philadelphia. Thankfully for the Flyers, his $5 MM contract expires at the end of 2017-18. Jori Lehtera was acquired this off-season in a bizarre move for Brayden Schenn, who arguably saw a great deal of improvement last season. Lehtera has only two seasons remaining at $4.7 MM, but his only effective (44 points) season is two years in the past. He scored only 7 goals all last season. Then there’s Sean Couturier, who while not a total dud, has failed to progress the way the organization hoped when they drafted him with the 8th overall in 2011 acquired as part of the Jeff Carter transaction. He provides solid defensive play, but he has never broken 40 points, and seemingly regressed last season, falling out of Selke conversations. He has 5 seasons remaining at a moderate $4.33 MM AAV. Wayne Simmonds (the one true bargain on the team) and Matt Read both make over $3 MM, while Dale Weise and Michael Raffl both draw over $2 MM. For a team that truly struggles to put the puck in the net, a lot of money is being spent on marginal players.

Ultimately, the Flyers are in a difficult spot playing in the Metropolitan Division. With the high-flying, offensively-dynamic Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins competing for playoff positioning, the inclination to try and duplicate those franchises is only natural. The team did luck into a dynamic, potentially franchise, talent in Nolan Patrick, which may help alleviate some of the problems with consistent offensive production. That said, if the Flyers continue to struggle this season, look for some of the offensive big guns to find themselves on the trading block. Excluding the one year of Filppula and the incredibly valuable Simmonds, only Giroux has any sort of no-movement clause. With Ivan Provorov and Shayne Gostisbehere looking to be core pieces on the back-end for many years, the day may soon come where an offensive overhaul visits Philadelphia. GM Ron Hextall will have money moving out in the next few seasons, but he undoubtedly has decisions to make going forward, particularly if this season again falls short of a playoff appearance.

Flames To Sign Spencer Foo

One of the biggest college free agent prizes has decided on his NHL destination, according to TSN’s Bob McKenzie. Union forward Spencer Foo will sign with the Calgary Flames. The 6’0″, 180 pound right winger scored 26 goals and added 36 assists in his Junior season with the Union Dutchmen. He was known in NCAA circles for being the motor behind the highest scoring line in college hockey, alongside Mike Vecchione, who ended up in Philadelphia.

Foo was previously linked to other teams, most seriously those same Flyers. However, Foo decided to change course, as he and his agent were pursued by other teams with more glaring holes at the winger position. Although details are scarce as to the rationale, one has to imagine that he was looking to have a serious opportunity on the right side. Calgary is weak on the right side, and only two players are under contract that naturally slot there: Troy Brouwer and Michael Frolik. The Flyers, by comparison, have multiple flexible core players who can slot on that side, including mainstays Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, and Jakub Voracek, with Matt Read and Dale Weise also getting looks. In Calgary, he is almost certain to have a crack at the top-9 on the roster, with the ability to play with creative talents Johnny Gaudreau and Sam Bennett.

Foo is tough for his size and has good skating ability. He has been lauded for his exceptional work ethic and conditioning, which at 23 will provide a decent opportunity to smoothly transition. The odds are against him to make an immediate offensive impact, as many college signings still take time to develop. For the re-building Flames, however, the signing is a perfect fit. Foo will be allowed to blossom alongside the young core that is already present, without worrying too heavily about internal competition for ice time on the wing.

Terms will not be revealed until that July 1st date, when the Unrestricted Free Agency signing period starts. Flames Nation’s Ryan Pike expects the deal to be a two-year entry level contract, at somewhere near the maximum $925,000 per year.

Expansion Primer: Philadelphia Flyers

Over the next few weeks we will be breaking down each team’s situation as it pertains to the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Which players are eligible, and which will likely warrant protection or may be on the block. Each team is required to submit their protection lists by 4pm CDT on June 17th. The full rules on eligibility can be found here, and CapFriendly has provided a handy expansion tool to make your own lists.

The Philadelphia Flyers are coming off a disappointing season of Metropolitan struggles. Thankfully, with the #2 pick in the upcoming draft, they will receive an infusion a top level talent in Nico Hischier or Nolan Patrick. There aren’t a ton of success stories from this last season for the Flyers, in which Wayne Simmonds led the way up front. Many players took a noticeable step back and the younger forwards failed to produce at an impactful clip.

The Flyers are in desperate need of embracing a full youth movement. The longer they cling to players like Andrew MacDonald, the worse off their rebuild will be. This is not a team that can compete for a Stanley Cup in the near future and with the expansion draft forcing tough decisions, now is the time to embrace that organizational mentality.

Eligible Players (Non-UFA)

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC), Valtteri Filppula (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier, Matt Read, Dale Weise, Michael Raffl, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nick Cousins, Scott Laughton, Greg Carey, Colin McDonald, Taylor Leier

Defense
Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas, Brandon Manning, Shayne GostisbehereT.J. Brennan, Will O’Neill, Jesper Pettersson

Goaltender
Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz

Notable Exemptions

Ivan Provorov, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Carter Hart

Key Decisions

The Flyers have to protect two players – both of whom are probably not deserving of the no movement clause they have been granted. Giroux had his second straight offensively disappointing season. At $8.275 MM a season until 2022, the Flyers have created a really difficult situation for themselves. And although previous GM Paul Holmgren was somehow able to unload Mike Richards prior to his momentous fall from grace, Giroux is already known to be an albatross. He’s still producing, with 14 goals and 58 points in his last outing, but he is struggling to be a difference maker against tough competition. Filppula only played 20 games this past season for Philadelphia, so any criticism might be premature. But the well-rounded center has only broken 20 goals twice in his career, most recently 4 seasons ago. He seems rather redundant on a team with lots of mediocre offensive talents.

Voracek might also be slightly overpaid for what he brings to the team ($8.25 MM), as his possession metrics have trended consistently downward over the course of four seasons. That said, he was Philadelphia’s leading scorer in 2016-17 and has a secure roster spot. He’s only two years removed from an All-Star appearance, but is he dominant enough to carry an offense if another key member struggles again? Simmonds is an obvious keeper for the physical edge he brings along with his consistent production.  The net-front presence and leadership skills make him a prime candidate for captain if Giroux were somehow jettisoned in the near future. Both Schenn and Couturier are promising key pieces to the future of the squad, and had solid outings last season.

From here, the decision at forward gets difficult. Weal had solid underlying metrics and showed flexibility in his game. Does GM Ron Hextall believe there is there more to his game, and if so, is he worth signing as a UFA before the expansion draft, burning a protection slot? Probably not. Some believe Cousins is worth protecting, as he is still young at 23 years old, and shown potential at the AHL level. With the other players vying for the position, however, the organization would have to be incredibly high on his ability to piece it all together next season.

The three serious remaining choices – Laughton, Raffl, and Bellemare – a group which likely contains the player to be claimed by Vegas, poses a question which will be entirely decided by organizational philosophy. Laughton is the player who has the highest upside but also the greatest potential for bust. Mike Raffl is a consistent producer whose ability would guarantee a certain amount of offense on a forward corps that can really struggles over long stretches. Bellemare is your classic heart-and-soul player – his latest perfomance in the World Championships put that on display for all onlookers. In the end, based on the praise afforded him by the coaching staff and other players, as well as his assistant captainship, Bellemare could easily find himself as the final protected player. Whether that is the correct long-term decision will be a topic of great scrutiny.

On defense, there are very few players signed. Gudas and Gostisbehere will absolutely be protected, so the third choice is the only one up for debate. Many believe that MacDonald is considered the veteran savvy anchor, but his possession stats have been poor, while his turnover frequency has been disturbing. He plays over 20 minutes a night, but hasn’t performed as consistently as a top-pairing player should. Manning still has room to improve, is four years younger, and posts a positive Corsi influence (51.3%) on a corps that truly floundered all season. Neither is going to be a game breaker for Vegas, but it would seem odd that Philadelphia wouldn’t roll the dice and expose MacDonald in hopes that his $5 MM contract for three more seasons could be removed from the books.

The goaltending decision will be an interesting one for outside watchers. With Steve Mason gone, Neuvirth is obviously their tender going forward, correct? Well, perhaps not. Neuvirth’s stats (.901 SV%) really don’t justify his protection, and especially considering the forward situation, he would almost certainly not be claimed. Stolarz is the goaltender of the immediate future for the team and will see quite a bit of duty this year. The 6’6″ former London Knight is going to be relied upon to take a step forward, and his progression in Lehigh Valley has been quite promising. Exposing him could backfire in a way that leaving Neuvirth open for taking could not. If the team is serious about a youth movement, his value as an asset needs to be shielded.

After quite a few tough determinations, and trying to be realistic about the organization’s valuation of certain players, what follows is the final projection for Philadelphia.

Projected Protection List

Scheme: 7F / 3D / 1G

Forwards
Claude Giroux (NMC)
Valtteri Filppula (NMC)
Sean Couturier
Wayne Simmonds
Brayden Schenn
Jakub Voracek
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare

Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere
Radko Gudas
Brandon Manning

Goaltender
Anthony Stolarz

Injury Notes: Read, Cunningham, Anisimov, Guentzel

Matt Read will not play again this season, after taking a shot to the arm in Thursday’s victory over the New York Islanders. He’ll be out six to eight weeks according to GM Ron Hextall, meaning it is likely some sort of a broken arm or wrist. Read had just 19 points this season and has really taken a step back in recent years. As a rookie, he scored 24 goals and 47 points, but has never been able to duplicate those numbers.

Read, 30, is signed for one more season with the Flyers at $3.625MM and will likely be relegated to bottom-six duty again next year. What looked like a very promising career after signing as a free agent out of college has taken a downward turn. He’ll try to rehab the injury and improve his play next season.

Morning Notes: Poolman, McAvoy, Hextall

The other day, we reported that Winnipeg Jets prospect Tucker Poolman had suffered an injury that would keep him from signing his entry-level deal this season and getting into the Winnipeg lineup. According to Bob McKenzie of TSN, that shoulder injury requires surgery and will keep him out four to six months, and he agrees that it may impact his decision to hit free agency this summer.

Poolman would become a free agent in August and able to sign with any NHL team, though McKenzie wonders if he’d choose to go back to school for another year and come out in 2018 with no restrictions on what kind of contract he could sign. Like Matt Read of the Philadelphia Flyers, who avoided an entry-level deal when he signed in 2011, Poolman could get a one-way deal worth much more than a standard ELC.

  • Charlie McAvoy is close to signing an amateur tryout with the Providence Bruins, but that doesn’t stop him from signing an entry-level deal this year if the Bruins feel they are desperate enough. As we discussed in the comments of the article yesterday, and confirmed by McKenzie in the video above, McAvoy would burn a year of his ELC if he should sign for this season despite being only 19. Because he turns 20 between September 16th and December 31st of this year, his contract wouldn’t slide even if he played fewer than 10 games. Like Colin White in Ottawa, this is still a possibility if the team feels as though they could help them win in the playoffs this season.
  • Ron Hextall will likely be the GM of Team Canada at the upcoming World Championships, provided Philadelphia doesn’t make the playoffs. The team is currently six points behind Boston for the final spot, but have several teams in between them. Expect former NHL goaltender Sean Burke to also be part of the management team after his involvement in Hockey Canada over the past several years.

Trade Deadline Summary: Winners & Losers Of The Metropolitan Division

The NHL Trade Deadline has come and gone, and while it wasn’t the most exciting deadline day in recent memory, there were quite a few notable moves. Here are the winners and losers of the dominant Metropolitan Division:

Winners

Carolina Hurricanes:

Not all that much happening in Raleigh, but what GM Ron Francis did do, he did well. Both Hainsey and Stalberg brought back returns that were greater than their market value. It was also nice of Francis to send Hainsey to a team where his career-long playoff drought would definitely be snapped. Not sure why Jay McClement wasn’t moved, but there simply may not have been interest. The Hurricanes have a ton of salary cap space and have to dip into their depth on defense sooner or later, but this year’s deadline was definitely not the time for big moves. Expect Carolina to be a major player in the off-season trade market.

New Jersey Devils:

The Devils didn’t really have any trade capital today other than Quincey and Parenteau, so good on GM Ray Shero for doing what he could with what he had. It’s strange that New Jersey was able to get a higher pick from the Predators for Vernon Fiddler earlier this season than they did for Parenteau, but injuries may have played into that. A full season of production and a draft pick in compensation isn’t that bad a return for an early-season waiver claim. The Quincey deal was the real star of the show though. The Devils went from taking a risk on an older, washed-up defenseman this off-season to trading him for a young, strong defensive defenseman who can be a starter for years with the team. Shero played the long con on the league this year, and it paid off.

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Snapshots: NHL Three Stars, Gostisbehere, Johnson

The NHL has named its Three Stars of the Week: Sebastian Aho, Mikael Granlund, and Peter Budaj.

Aho had four goals and an assist in three games, including two game-winning goals. In the Hurricanes’ first game of the week, Aho had a hat-trick and assist, before scoring the winning goal on Friday against the Oilers and being held pointless on Saturday. In 51 games, the 2015 second-round pick has 16 goals and 31 points, good for sixth among rookies.

Granlund had three goals and six points in three games as the Wild went 2-1-0. After two assists in the first two games of the week, he too had a hat-trick plus assist in the third game of the week. Granlund currently leads the Wild in scoring with 48 points in 51 games.

Budaj won three of four games with a 0.930 SV%, 1.62 GAA, and two shutouts. After starting the season as the Kings’ third-string goaltender, he now leads the NHL in shutouts with seven and has a sparkling 0.920 SV% with 25 wins in 46 appearances. With Jonathan Quick out from opening night until March, Budaj has allowed the Kings to remain in a wildcard spot.

  • The offensively-starved Flyers will be without last year’s rookie standout Shayne Gostisbehere yet again when the Blues come to Philadelphia tonight, but it’s not an injury or illness that’s keeping him out. Gostisbehere will be a healthy scratch for the third-straight game. After scoring 17 goals and 46 points in 64 games last year, he has just four goals and 21 points in 48 games this season. That’s a pace of 7-29-36 over 82 games, much lower than his 59-point-pace in 2015-16. While Gostisbehere will remain out of the lineup, rookie forward Travis Konecny will draw back in for Matt Read. When asked about the lineup, coach Dave Hakstol told NBC’s Jason Brough that he’s “trying to dress the best roster possible to win hockey games. Point blank.” Without Gostisbehere, the Flyers are 1-1, winning 3-1 and losing 1-0.
  • In an appearance on TSN Radio in Edmonton, Bob McKenzie put forward the idea that Tampa Bay could look to move pending RFA center Tyler Johnson for defensive help. Despite Johnson’s lessened production this year (33 points in 53 games), McKenzie suggests a combination of “needing a defenseman and maybe having a surplus of forwards, and… the cap issues and maybe not being in a position to sign [Johnson] might make him more expendable over some of the other pieces.” Besides making a decision on potential rentals like Ben Bishop and Brian Boyle and RFA forwards Jonathan Drouin, Ondrej Palat, and Johnson, McKenzie believes GM Steve Yzerman will be looking for a cost-controlled defenseman to make his team better going forward. Regardless of who he choses to keep, it’s going to be a stressful next few months for Yzerman.

Metro Division Notes: Blue Jackets, Read, Hurricanes

The Columbus Blue Jackets last night extended their remarkable winning streak to 16 games and the team undoubtedly qualifies as one of the league’s biggest surprises of the 2016-17 season. Expected to have a better chance of contending for the top pick in next June’s draft than a playoff spot, the Jackets currently have the best record in the NHL and sit at or near the top in a number of statistical categories. It’s gotten to the point where Michael Arace of The Columbus Dispatch wonders, “who are these guys?”

As Arace notes, the team is getting balanced scoring from throughout the lineup, excellent play between the pipes from Sergei Bobrovsky and have the ability to employ a stifling defense. The common refrain among Blue Jackets players, however, is hard work and a dedication to improving every day is the secret behind their success.

“The key thing is everyone works hard and for the team,” goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky said. “The leaders push the key players, and (it filters down). The most important thing is we work hard for each other.”

The team’s captian, Nick Foligno, who has 33 points in 34 games, concurs.

“We have won by hard work and continuing to play to an identity,” Foligno said. “You don’t win 16 by luck. That is something the guys in here can hang their hat on, but also know it has to continue.”

“We can’t just sit on it now. That’s what I’ve seen as the big difference in here. We’re not a team that is content with that. We want to be a better team. … We know who we are and we’ve played to that for the first 30 or so games, and it has to continue for the next 40.”

Head coach John Tortorella, much-maligned and thought to be on the hot seat following a horrible showing by Team USA’s entry in the World Cup of Hockey, is proving to again be among the top coaches in the game with his deft guidance of the Blue Jackets and should garner plenty of support for the Jack Adams trophy if Columbus can parlay their outstanding start into a playoff berth.

Elsewhere in the Metro Division:

  • Not long ago, the Philadelphia Flyers found themselves in the midst of a 10-game winning streak and comfortably residing in a playoff spot in the competitive Metro Division. However, after dropping six of seven with their lone win coming via shootout, the Flyers are clearly scuffling and in need of a spark. As Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post writes, the team is hopeful that winger Matt Read, recently activated from IR, can help get the Flyers back on track. Read returned to the lineup Sunday in the team’s shootout loss to Anaheim and was held off the score sheet while skating on a line centered by Sean Couturier and with Dale Weise on the other side. Head coach Dave Hakstol liked what he saw from his reconstituted third line: “I like that group the other night,” coach Dave Hakstol added. “I thought Dale Weise played, the last two games, really well. In Anaheim he was in on forechecks. He was in and heavy on pucks. That whole line was. I thought that line was effective the other night.” As Isaac notes, the Flyers have roughly 40 games left on their 2016-17 schedule but with other team’s in the division playing well, the team needs to start stringing some wins together.
  • Ron Smith, who spent seven seasons coaching in the Carolina Hurricanes minor league system, recently passed away at the age of 72. Luke DeCock of The News & Observer details the impact Smith had not only on the Hurricanes organization, but on the development of video analysis and statistical tracking. Smith helped develop Erik Cole, Eric Staal, Mike Commodore and Craig Adams, players who would be go on to help Carolina win a Stanley Cup in 2005-06. He also tracked scoring chances for and against long before anyone had heard of possession metrics such as Corsi or Fenwick, as DeCock notes. After his coaching career ended, Smith spent another decade as a pro scout for the Hurricanes before retiring from hockey altogether.

Flyers Activate Matt Read From IR

Sometimes injury timelines prove to be more than just educated guesses. The Philadelphia Flyers have announced the return of veteran forward Matt Read to the lineup, after they called for an early January return following the original injury. It doesn’t get an earlier than January 1st, as the Flyers welcome back their long-time right wing.

Read suffered an oblique strain early in December, five games into Philadelphia’s eventual ten-game winning streak to start the month. However, the Flyers’ fortunes have reversed of late, as they have lost five of their last six. Although Read has been skating for a couple of weeks now, he is only now in game condition and the timing is perfect for a Philly team that needs an injection of energy and grit.

While Read has never been able to replicate his success from his breakout rookie season in 2011-12, in which he scored 47 points, he has been able to play a key role for Philadelphia ever since. Facing criticism after a down year in 2015-16 – just 26 points and an eventual loss of ice time and special teams responsibilities – Read was heading towards a better season prior to his injury. He had six goals (only 8 and 11 in the two seasons prior) and ten points in 27 games. However, after missing a month of games, Read will have to get his legs under him quickly to return to form and prove he still has an offensive touch. If Read wants to avoid being exposed in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, he needs a strong second half. Otherwise, he would be a likely selection by Las Vegas as a key role player.

In a corresponding move, the Flyers sent forward Taylor Leier back down to the AHL’s Lehigh Valley Phantoms. Leier has just two points in ten games with Philadelphia this season, and has been shuffled back and forth from the minors several times.

Flyers Notes: Neuvirth, Injuries, Weise

With the Philadelphia Flyers recently having a ten game winning streak, it’s difficult to imagine there being any frustrations.  As Dave Isaac of the Courier-Post writes though, that’s exactly the case when it comes to goaltender Michal Neuvirth.

Neuvirth entered this season poised to battle with Steve Mason for the number one job between the pipes after both goalies had an up-and-down season in 2015-16.  However, he got off to a slow start this season, posting a 3.59 GAA and a .859 SV%, both significantly worse than the league average.  Then in mid-November, he suffered a knee injury and hasn’t played since, allowing Mason to seize the starting role and run with it while Anthony Stolarz has also played well in limited action.

While that’s great for Mason and the Flyers, this certainly won’t help Neuvirth’s cause when it comes to getting a new contract this summer as an unrestricted free agent.  Neuvirth is making $1.75MM this season, the second of a two year contract that carries a $1.625MM cap hit.  A strong year where he took over as the starter while staying healthy could have allowed him to at least double his current salary but as things stand, that’s not likely to be the case unless his second half of the season goes a whole lot better than his first half has.

On the plus side, Neuvirth has been skating recently and he noted that there haven’t been any issues with his recovery so far:

“No setbacks, but it’s a difficult injury, especially for goalies. Can’t rush it back. Stolie and Mase are doing a good job, so there’s no pressure for me to rush it.”

Assuming there are no setbacks, Neuvirth is expected to return to the lineup sometime in January.

More from Philadelphia:

  • The ten game win streak has raised the bar when it comes to expectations for the rest of the season, GM Ron Hextall told CSN Philly’s Jordan Hall. Hextall acknowledged that he didn’t expect that the Flyers could pull off ten straight victories with as much parity as there is in the league.  He also provided some updates on their injured players.  He noted that there is a chance that center Sean Couturier (knee), defenseman Mark Streit (shoulder), and right winger Matt Read (oblique) could be back late this month but it’s more likely that all of those players will be out of the lineup until early January.
  • Right winger Dale Weise will be a healthy scratch as the Flyers take on the Predators, reports Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Weise’s first year with Philly has not gone as anyone had hoped as he has just two goals and two assists in 29 games and this is not the first time he has been scratched either.  The 28 year old is in the first of a four year deal with a cap hit of $2.35MM.  Center Boyd Gordon will slot into the lineup in Weise’s place.
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