2016-17 Season Preview: Edmonton Oilers
With the NHL season just weeks away, PHR is taking an in-depth look at each team. Today: the Edmonton Oilers.
Last Season: 31-43-8 (70 points), 7th place in the Pacific Division. Did not qualify for the playoffs.
Cap Space Remaining: $8.92MM via CapFriendly.
Key Newcomers: Adam Larsson (RHD) – trade (New Jersey); Milan Lucic (LW) – free agency (Los Angeles); Jesse Puljujärvi (RW) – NHL Draft (4th overall)
Key Departures: Taylor Hall (LW) – trade (New Jersey); Lauri Korpikoski (LW) – buyout
Professional Tryouts: Kris Versteeg (RW)
Player to Watch: Connor McDavid – Who else? The most hotly anticipated prospect since Sidney Crosby didn’t disappoint on the ice, scoring 48 points in 45 games. Unfortunately for McDavid and the Oilers, a broken collarbone kept him out of the lineup from November to February, and when he returned the Oilers were too far out of the playoffs for him to make a real difference in the standings. His effect on his line-mates is remarkable; Patrick Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games with McDavid, surpassing his 56-game total with the Anaheim Ducks. McDavid has had a transcendent effect on the organization, and is widely expected to be one of the top scorers in the NHL this season.
Key Storylines: Will GM Peter Chiarelli‘s bold summer pay off? Trading the third-best left winger in the NHL for Larsson represents a major overpayment, but it also gives the Oilers a long-term fix with a young top pairing of Oscar Klefbom and Larsson playing 24 minutes per night. Adding Larsson and a healthy Klefbom allows Andrej Sekera, Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, and Mark Fayne to play more effective minutes. Chiarelli is also heavily rumored to be looking at adding an offensive-minded defenseman, like Cody Franson, to the mix.
Can McDavid play 70-plus games? McDavid’s health will be a major factor in how the Oilers do this season. He’s already one of the top players in the league, so he’ll be counted on to take the next step and lead the Oilers to the playoffs. Look for him to boost the offensive numbers of Lucic and Jordan Eberle on the top line, and allow Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl, and rookie Puljujärvi to see less of other team’s top pairings.
Compelling RFA Cases For 2017: Pacific Division, Part I
Jacob Trouba, Johnny Gaudreau and Nikita Kucherov highlight a strong and deep group of restricted free agents that remain unsigned at the moment. While they will each ultimately cash in and receive substantial contracts for the 2016-17 campaign and likely beyond, their status as restricted free agents has certainly complicated the negotiation process.
Next summer, another quality group of players are set to hit restricted free agency unless they can agree to terms on a new deal prior to the 2017-18 league year. In a series of posts, Pro Hockey Rumors will profile the top pending 2017 RFAs and examine what kind of contract they could elicit assuming they put up a strong performance during their platform year. Today we start in the Pacific Division.
Anthony Duclair (Arizona) – “The Duke” is coming off a solid rookie season, scoring 20 goals and posting 44 points in 81 games for the Coyotes. Arizona acquired Duclair and a couple of draft picks from the New York Rangers at the 2015 deadline in the Keith Yandle deal. Duclair, considered a first-round talent in his draft year, tumbled into the third-round following an injury-shortened 2014-15 campaign in the QMJHL.
Another 20+ goal campaign could propel Duclair’s earning potential into the $4MM range annually. Mike Hoffman, who has scored 27 and 29 goals respectively the last two seasons, inked a four-year deal with an AAV of more than $5MM per season. On the heels of back-to-back 21-goal campaigns, Chris Kreider also landed a four-year pact, his worth $18.5MM in total. Kreider was coming off his second contract, Hoffman his ELC. Based on experience, Hoffman would be the better comparable but the goal-scoring numbers are likely to match up better with Kreider. Either way, if Duclair can match or exceed his 2015-16 production this season, a $4MM+ AAV on a new contract would be realistic.
Sam Bennett (Calgary) – Bennett, the fourth overall selection in the 2014 entry draft, posted an 18-18=36 scoring line as a rookie with the Flames in 2015-16, while playing the entire campaign as a 19-year-old. Along with the aforementioned Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, Bennett is part of a strong nucleus of young talent the Flames are counting on to lead the club into Stanley Cup contention.
Assuming an uptick in performance given Bennett now has a full year of NHL experience under his belt, it will be interesting to see how the Flames handle his restricted free agency. They’ve already locked up Monahan to a rich long-term extension and seem to want to do the same for Gaudreau. If they elect to go the same route with Bennett, he’ll likely need to do much better than 36 points to earn a contract in the same ballpark as Monahan’s.
Instead, perhaps a two-year bridge deal similar to the one Kevin Hayes received this summer makes more sense for the two sides. Hayes, who has tallied 81 points in 158 NHL games, inked a two-year pact worth $2.6MM per. That deal might be a fair comparable for Bennett assuming a 40 – 50-point output in 2016-17. A bridge deal also allows Bennett to further prove he can be a top-line player in the league.
Leon Draisaitl (Edmonton) – There was thought that perhaps the Oilers rushed Draisaitl to the NHL and possibly hindered his long term development based on the German pivot’s dreadful rookie year. After being chosen third in the 2014 draft, Draisaitl debuted in the NHL, appearing in 37 games during the 2014-15 campaign and scoring just 9 points and finishing with a -17 plus-minus rating.
Thankfully for Edmonton, Draisaitl demonstrated his career trajectory is firmly pointed upwards after an impressive sophomore season in which he tallied 51 points in 72 contests and improved his plus-minus rating to a -2. If he should continue to show that level of improvement, Draisaitl could land in the same territory as Monahan and Nathan MacKinnon each did coming off their ELCs; namely in the range of $6MM annually. Monahan is coming off back-to-back 60-point campaigns while MacKinnon sandwiched a mediocre second season (38 points in 64 games) between a 63-point debut and a 2015-16 almost identical to Draisaitl’s in terms of production (52 points in 72 games). If Draisaitl can produce in the neighborhood of 60 – 65 points in his platform year, $6MM annually may well be within reach.
Tyler Toffoli (Los Angeles) – Toffoli has improved steadily over his three full NHL seasons, seeing his goal totals increase from 12 his rookie season to 23 in year two and finally to a team-leading 31 last season with the Kings. He also led the league in plus-minus rating with a +35.
Toffoli won’t turn 25 until late in the 2016-17 campaign suggesting he has several more prime years remaining. He is entering the final season of a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.25MM and should be in line for a lucrative long-term pact. Two recent extensions signed by RFA-eligible players that could set the bar for a Toffoli deal are the contracts inked within the last several months by Filip Forsberg (six years with an AAV of $6MM per) and Mike Hoffman (four years with an AAV of $5.1875MM). If Toffoli produces season scoring totals in 2016-17 similar to those of this past campaign, he should be able to command something between what Hoffman and Forsberg are earning on each of their respective deals.
Potential 2016-17 Impact Rookies: Puljujarvi, Kempe, Goldobin, Tkachuk
It’s rare for players to debut in the NHL and make a significant impact for their teams in the same year they are drafted. In 2015-16, just three players selected in the prior June’s draft – Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin – appeared in more than 18 NHL contests as rookies. However, we could see as many as five 2016 draftees all earn regular shifts with their clubs during the 2016-17 season, two of whom appear in this post.
Jesse Puljujarvi (Edmonton) – Expected to go in the top-three of the draft, Puljujarvi surprisingly dropped to #4 after Columbus elected to take C Pierre-Luc Dubois at #3 instead of the Finnish winger. Edmonton happily grabbed Puljujarvi with their choice and this stroke of good fortune may have played a role in the June 29th trade of Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Adam Larsson. Having Puljujarvi in the fold provided Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli the knowledge he had enough depth on the wings to cash in a player of Hall’s caliber to address their weakness on the blue line.
Puljujarvi combines NHL size at 6-foot-3 and 203 pounds with excellent skating ability. He starred for the Finns helping his home country win the gold medal in the World Junior Championships. He also captured the tourney’s MVP award and finished tops among all participants in both assists (12) and points (17).
The Oilers already have one of the top young superstars in the game in MacDavid and saw 2014 first-round pick Leon Draisaitl bust out with a 51-point campaign in 2016-17. Joining that dangerous duo up front is former top overall selection Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Edmonton boasts plenty of talented high-end forwards which virtually assures Puljujarvi will have a chance to skate with some good players. Don’t be surprised if he ends up as a Calder Trophy finalist and the leading scorer among all 2016 draftees.
Adrian Kempe (Los Angeles) – After losing forwards Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg to free agency and with Dustin Brown‘s offense regressing to a level where he has no business in the top-nine, the Kings could turn to Kempe to provide additional scoring. Kempe, the team’s first-round choice in 2014, already has 55 games of pro experience in North America after suiting up this past season for the Kings AHL affiliate, the Ontario Reign. The Swedish winger tallied 11 goals and recorded 28 points during the regular season and another four goals and five points in 13 postseason contests.
Since Kempe doesn’t turn 20 until later this month and given he didn’t exactly dominate at the AHL level, it wouldn’t be a bad idea if the Kings sent him back to Ontario to start the 2016-17 campaign and get some more seasoning. But with Kyle Clifford (nine points in 56 games) and Brown (28 points in 82 games) currently expected to hold top-nine spots, according to Roster Resource, Los Angeles might decide they need to inject more offense into the lineup and Kempe could be the source of that offense.
Nikolay Goldobin (San Jose) – The Sharks addressed any need they may have had for a scoring line LW by signing Mikkel Boedker as a free agent this summer. With Tomas Hertl and Patrick Marleau also listed as LW’s on the team’s depth chart, it’s likely the highly skilled Goldobin begins the season with the San Jose Barracudas of the AHL to gain more experience. But in the event of injury, Goldobin could be among the team’s first choices for a promotion to the big club.
Goldobin is said to have an excellent shot and release and is a creative offensive player. He can use some work on his defensive game, as do many young players, which is another reason he might find himself in the AHL to start the 2016-17 campaign. But with Marleau entering the final year of his contract, Goldobin is in line to land a job with the Sharks soon enough; perhaps as early as this year.
Matthew Tkachuk (Calgary) – The Flames already possess several skilled young players, but as mentioned in an earlier installment of this series, if they do have an opening it would be for a scoring line LW with size. Hunter Shinkaruk might get the first crack to fill that role though he doesn’t possess the size the Flames would seem to need. If Shinkaruk isn’t ready for regular NHL action, Tkachuk could be an option for Calgary up front.
Tkachuk, the son of former NHL power forward Keith Tkachuk, was drafted by the Flames with the sixth overall selection of the 2016 draft following an impressive 107-point season with the London Knights of the OHL. While his dad was noted for playing a physical game (2,219 PIM in 1,201 NHL games), as well as being a terrific goal scorer, Matthew is more of a complete, two-way player who is also a good skater with high-end offensive instincts. He helped Team USA to a bronze medal at the 2016 WJC U20 tournament, tallying 11 points in seven contests.
Tkachuk might be better off returning to junior to gain more experience. He will certainly have to prove to the Flames that he is truly ready to play at the NHL level but he has the talent and the skill to provide some offense if he earns a role in Calgary.
Oilers Notes: Lucic, Larsson, Talbot, McDavid, Lagesson
The Edmonton Oilers are next up on Pro Hockey Talk’s daily team series and Jason Brough identifies summer signing Milan Lucic as the Oiler under pressure for 2016-17. Considering the large contract given to Lucic and the expectation he will assume the first-line left wing spot vacated following the trade of former #1 overall pick Taylor Hall, there is certainly plenty of pressure on the menacing forward.
One could argue that Adam Larsson, the defenseman the Oilers dealt Hall for and who is expected to be a viable top pair blue liner for a team desperate to improve on the back end, is under even more pressure than Lucic. Lucic is already a finished product for all intents and purposes, and with four 20-goal seasons on his resume already, Lucic needs only perform at the level he has been over the last several seasons.
On the other hand, Larsson has yet to fulfill his potential completely, and needs to take the next step in his development in order to meet expectations. If the Oilers are going to push for a playoff spot this season they need Larsson to become the player they believe he can be.
More on the Oilers…..
- In another piece on Pro Hockey Talk, Brough talks about the up-and-down season Cam Talbot had in his first year as a starter in the league. As Brough notes, Talbot got off to a slow start through November but rebounded in December and January posting save percentages of 93.4% and 93.2% respectively during those months. Given the somewhat inconsistent nature of Talbot’s performance and his relative lack of starting experience, Brough feels the goaltending situation is still uncertain in Edmonton. It appears Edmonton will go into the season with journeyman backstop Jonas Gustavsson as Talbot’s backup between the pipes (all team depth charts can be found at Roster Resource). Given that likelihood, Edmonton will need Talbot to play at the level he did in the latter part of last season if they want to compete for a playoff spot.
- Bruce McCurdy, writing for the Edmonton Journal, discusses the progress of Edmonton defense prospect William Lagesson. Lagesson, the Oilers 4th round pick in 2014, played last season as a freshman for a U-Mass program that struggled to a 8-24-4 mark and was outscored by 62 goals. The Swedish rearguard led the teams defense corps recording a -6 plus-minus rating. Edmonton obviously needs all the good defense prospects they can accumulate and it appears Lagesson is developing into one.
- Meanwhile, David Staples, also covering the Oilers for the Edmonton Journal, penned a piece on how one publication, hockey prognosticator The Hockey Forecaster, is projecting Connor McDavid to have a Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin-like impact on his team’s offensive output. In their rookie campaigns, Crosby and Ovechkin helped their teams score 53 and 44 more goals respectively than they potted the previous season. The Oilers are predicted to tally a total of 237 goals, which would be an increase of 38 markers over their 2015-16 season total. The Hockey Forecaster also predicts career seasons from Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Leon Draisaitl and Oscar Klefbom, among others. Staples writes that those projections might be a stretch but recognizes that an elite talent such as McDavid, Crosby and Ovechkin can have that type of impact for a team. Assuming the predictions even come close to fruition then Edmonton might be able to outscore their way to postseason contention.
Montreal Asked For Draisaitl, 4th Overall, Plus for Subban
After today’s Taylor Hall and PK Subban trades, Oilers fans might be wondering why the Oilers couldn’t get a deal done for Subban. Well here’s why: TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reported Wednesday night that the asking price for the stud defenceman was Leon Draisaitl, the 4th overall pick which ultimately became Jesse Puljujärvi, one of Oscar Klefbom or Darnell Nurse, plus more.
Klefbom is the Oilers top defenceman next to Andrej Sekera and newly acquired Adam Larsson. Nurse is a highly promising former 7th overall pick who played most of last season in the NHL with mixed results but should develop hugely next season. The Oilers were likely not willing to part with such a big part of their future blue-line to improve it now.
Draisaitl showed massive improvement last season, cracking the 50-point barrier on a line with the now traded duo of Hall and Teddy Purcell. The big center can play both center and wing, and is expected to play a key role in the upcoming season in the Oilers top 6.
Those two pieces already represent a large trade value, before we get to the just-drafted Puljujärvi. The Finnish forward unexpectedly fell to 4th overall and is likely to play in the Oilers top 9 this season.
With those pieces plus the mystery of what “more” could mean, it’s understandable why the Oilers passed on Subban. However, it should be asked which group would help Edmonton turn the corner this season: Hall and Subban, or Drasaitl, Klefbom, Puljujärvi, and Larsson.
The answer to that debate can never be known. Edmonton passed on trading a massive haul for Subban to trade Hall for Larsson.