Trade Deadline Reflection: Finding Value In The Margins
The trade deadline now more than ever is a tough time to impact your team. With the tightening cap structure, long-term deals for young players and league-wide parity (however falsely constructed), finding a deal that works for both teams in a time-sensitive manner is a struggle. While every year there are one or two big name players moved, shocking deals (in the manner of Shea Weber for P.K. Subban) usually wait until the summer.
It’s because of this that fans and media alike must learn to love the small deals, the hockey swaps and the fresh starts. In these trades, teams can find a player that fits perfectly into their system and adds depth for a playoff run. Under-performing teams can take chances on fallen stars, prospects who have been labeled as early busts, or veterans who can make an impact in the development of a young player.
Though deals for Kevin Shattenkirk and Matt Duchene might sound fun, it’s often the Patrick Eaves or Ron Hainsey addition that makes a meaningful impact. To take a page from baseball, adding value anywhere is equal; upgrading the bottom pairing by a lot may be as important as improving your first line by a little. Last year, there were several deals of this nature.
Anaheim added goal scoring to their lineup by bringing in Jamie McGinn and Brandon Pirri on deadline day. The two would score 11 goals in 30 games (total), with McGinn scoring another pair in the playoffs. Edmonton would benefit from the deals as it let the Ducks part with Patrick Maroon later that day. Maroon made an immediate impact for the Oilers and has continued it with an 18 goal season this year (though playing with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl doesn’t hurt). 
Florida was only able to deal Pirri away because they’d added depth of their own in Teddy Purcell and Jiri Hudler. The pair of upcoming UFAs would each perform quite well for Florida down the stretch helping them lock up first place in the Atlantic Division.
Pittsburgh may have been the biggest winners in late-February without making a huge splash. On the 27th, just a couple of days before the deadline they made the small move of acquiring Justin Schultz. It only cost them a third-round pick (which would be #91 after the Penguins won the Cup). Though Schultz made an impact down the stretch with eight points in 18 games, this season that he has really shone. It’s been 35 points in 47 games for the former Edmonton Oiler.
It’s interesting to watch all the fanfare surround deals like Andrew Ladd, Kris Russell and Eric Staal. None of those deals worked out that well for their teams, despite the huge price tags. So when approaching this deadline don’t shrug off the little deals. They may be just as important, and much more affordable, than going after the big fish.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Pacific Division Snapshots: Jones, Hertl, McDavid, Draisaitl
With San Jose goaltender Martin Jones scheduled to make his 42nd start of the season tomorrow, Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area wonders whether the 27-year-old’s workload has been too heavy. As it stands now, Jones is on pace to start nearly 70 games in 2016-17. The scribe spoke with former Sharks net minder Brian Boucher to seek his opinion on the matter. In Boucher’s estimation, if San Jose is to seriously contend for a Stanley Cup, they need to find a way to cut Jones’ workload, perhaps to something in the neighborhood of 65 games over a full schedule.
Boucher also questions whether the team fully trusts rookie goalie Aaron Dell, who has posted terrific numbers in limited action. Dell, 27, has won six of his eight starts and has posted a S% of 0.930 with a GAA of 1.97. The Sharks are currently in first place in the Pacific Division, 13 points ahead of fourth place Calgary, and assuming they can maintain that cushion it’s quite possible the Sharks will give Dell more time between the pipes in order to keep Jones as fresh as possible for a playoff run. If not, the team might peruse the trade market in search of a quality backup, much like the did a year ago by acquiring James Reimer ahead of the deadline.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- Sticking with San Jose, it appears the Sharks are going to be welcoming young forward Tomas Hertl back to the lineup, as Curtis Pashelka of The Mercury News reports. Hertl, who has been skating with the team for the last week, missed the team’s last 31 games with a knee sprain. Pashelka is unsure where Hertl will slot into the lineup upon his return but he notes the 23-year-old Czech had been the team’s third-line pivot prior to the injury.
- David Staples of Postmedia suggests it’s time for the Edmonton Oilers to split up Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, noting that each has become a solid defensive pivot and slotting one on the other’s wing is a waste. The notion represents a possible solution to the club’s third-line center question as Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, as solid two-way pivot, would slide down the lineup in this scenario. The flip side, of course, is such a move weakens the team on the wing thus lessening the possibility of the team listening on offers for Jordan Eberle and perhaps increasing the odds Edmonton might rather add a winger prior to the trade deadline.
Restricted 2017: Checking In On The Upcoming RFA Class
As the NHL continues to skew towards younger and younger talent with players like Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews making an immediate impact, the restricted free agent classes become more and more important.
Last year we saw an impressive group, headlined by the dynamic duo in Calgary Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, Tampa’s new sniper Nikita Kucherov and a handful of excellent defensemen like Hampus Lindholm and Jacob Trouba.
While teams have started to lock up their young talent before they even become restricted free agents – like Aaron Ekblad in Florida who signed a $60MM deal just months after his 20th birthday – this year looks like it will be one of the biggest and most expensive RFA crops ever. Glen Miller took a look back in September at this year’s crop in an excellent series of articles that really should be consumed before reading any further (parts one, two, three, four, five and six), but let’s now check in on the group and how they’re fairing this season. Well list just a few of the highlights, as the group is almost endless.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM) – 47 GP / 17 G / 23 A / 40 P
You can’t start this list without mentioning Draisaitl, who will head to restricted free agency for the first time after what looks like a 30+ goal, 70+ point season. Skating alongside McDavid for much of the year, Draisaitl is currently tied for 18th in league scoring and leads the RFA group. He won’t turn 22 until after the 2017-18 season begins, and is an important player for the Edmonton Oilers to lock up long term. Expect the team to shell out big money to buy into a few free agent years this summer.
Mikael Granlund (MIN) – 44 GP / 10 G / 27 A / 37 P
Often forgotten about across much of the league because of the relative gag-order on any Minnesota Wild news, Granlund is having an exceptional season. Playing almost 20 minutes a night and on pace to shatter his previous career high in points, the Finnish forward will get a huge deal this summer. Unlike Draisaitl, Granlund is 24 and has already been through the RFA process before, signing a two-year $6MM deal before last season. With three solid seasons and now one spectacular one, he’ll likely earn something closer to $7MM (AAV) if signed long-term.
Justin Schultz (PIT) – 44 GP / 7 G / 23 A / 30 P
Schultz is such an interesting case, because of the breakout he’s experiencing this year. With Kris Letang on the shelf for much of the season, Schultz has blossomed in Pittsburgh to the player most teams expected when he signed out of college. He’s 26 now, and will turn 27 just days after free agency opens, but will likely fetch a hefty price as an RFA. After not even receiving a qualifying offer last year, has he done enough to prove that a big-money deal is worth it?
Robin Lehner (BUF) – 29 GP / .920 SV% / 2.54 GAA
The best RFA goaltender this year is one who just blew up at his coach after getting pulled and has generally been inconsistent for the Sabres since they traded a first-round pick for him in 2015. He has all the talent in the world to be a number one goaltender in this league, but with Buffalo floundering again near the bottom of the league will he be able to put it all together and lead them back to the playoffs? He’s 25-years old now and has 136 games under his belt with an above-average .916 save percentage. If Buffalo can ice any healthy defensemen, perhaps they’d be able to finish in the top half of the league for a change.
Extension Candidates: 2017 Restricted Free Agents
After Artemi Panarin signed a two-year extension earlier today that will pay him $6MM per season and take him right up to unrestricted free agency, the RFA pool for this summer got a little bit smaller. Other extensions that have already been signed include Aaron Ekblad (Eight years, $60MM), Jake Allen (Four years, $17.4MM) and Victor Hedman (Eight years, $63MM).
Even though these big names are already locked up long-term, there are a ton of other restricted free agents that will be negotiating extensions between now and July 1st. Here are a few big names who become RFAs this summer.
Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton: The former third-overall pick who once scored 192 points in 29 German junior-league games, has broken out this season with 31 points in 36 games. Already coming off a 50 point season, this 70 point pace puts him in elite territory up front. Only 21 years old, the Oilers will be looking to lock him up long-term to ride shotgun with Connor McDavid well into their peak years.
Alex Galchenyuk, Montreal: Another third-overall pick who put up a 50+ point season a year ago, Galchenyuk was off to a brilliant start before going down with injury early this month. Because he’ll be out for another month at least, Galchenyuk won’t rush into a contract that may not be representative of his development. This one might head into the summer, but if he comes back strong perhaps the two sides can come together before what looks like a long playoff run.
David Pastrnak, Boston: Not quite the same situation faces Pastrnak, who before this year showed promise but hadn’t played a full season in the NHL. With 26 points already he’s about to set his career-high and has a chance at a 40-goal season. Boston has a lot of money already tied up long-term in their forward group, with David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, David Backes and Brad Marchand all under contract through at least 2020-21. They may not be able to afford buying out UFA years this summer, meaning a one or two year pact is more likely.
Pacific Division Snapshots: Russell, Kassian, Hertl
Kris Russell was believed to be one of the top free agent blue liners available this summer and was expected to land a lucrative multi-year contract as a result. After all, Russell was just 29, an age still young enough to reasonably expect that a long-term deal would include multiple campaigns of steady production before an inevitable age-related decline set in. Additionally, the former Flame had posted a 34-point campaign as recently as 2014-15, suggesting Russell would be able to contribute some offense from either a team’s second or third pairing. However Russell remained available deep into the offseason before inking a one-year, $3.1MM pact with Edmonton, which made him just the fifth highest-paid defender on the Oilers.
Much of the reason for Russell’s stagnant summer market is due to the wide chasm in the analytics community regarding the defenseman’s actual value, as the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples opines. Staples writes that analysts who favor possession-based metrics have never thought highly of Russell’s work while others who rely more on tracking “the individual actions of players in game, such as zone entries, crucial good and bad defensive and offensive plays, and shots and passes that lead to scoring chances,” like Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli for example, rate Russell more favorably.
Essentially, the former sees Russell as nothing more than a competent third-pair defenseman, one who excels at blocking shots and plays a physical game and should be compensated as such. The latter would be comfortable putting Russell out on their second-pair and paying him accordingly. Edmonton clearly saw Russell as a top-four option and has awarded him with ice time commensurate of such. Currently, he is averaging nearly 21 1/2 minutes per game, two minutes more than his career average.
What remains to be seen, however, is how much effort, if any, the Oilers put into extending Russell prior to July 1st when he becomes a UFA again. The team is projected to have more than $19MM in cap space available and only Leon Draisaitl stands out as a pending free agent that will warrant a hefty outlay. But Edmonton is just one summer away from Connor McDavid becoming a restricted free agent and may wish to keep as much cap space available to get what is likely going to be an expensive long-term deal done with their franchise player. That could limit their interest in a reunion with Russell to a one-year term and the veteran defenseman may not be amenable to another short-term pact.
Elsewhere in the Pacific Division:
- Staying with Edmonton, it was one year ago nearly to the day that Chiarelli swung a deal with Montreal to acquire physical forward Zack Kassian. Kassian had just completed a suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy and while the trade was certainly a risk for Edmonton, 12 months later the gamble is paying off for both the team and the player, as Terry Jones of the Edmonton Journal writes. While Kassian is not lighting up the score sheet with just two goals and nine points in 33 games this season, Chiarelli says the power forward is playing well: “He’s kept clean. He’s in terrific shape. He’s settled down. And at some point he’ll start scoring. He’s playing well. He’s skating. He’s providing the physical element.” Kassian was originally selected the 13th overall by Buffalo in the first-round of the 2009 draft but was dealt to Vancouver during his rookie campaign for Cody Hodgson. His best season came in 2013-14 when the 6-foot-3, 217-pound forward tallied 14 goals and 29 points with 124 penalty minutes in 73 games for the Canucks. It’s certainly possible Kassian can match or even better those numbers playing on a skilled Oilers team headlined by McDavid, Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.
- Perhaps a bit of good news for San Jose as young winger Tomas Hertl was spotted this morning skating for the first time since undergoing knee surgery. Kevin Kurz of CSN Bay Area tweeted a photo of Hertl on the ice, apparently by himself. He’s still expected to be out for a while but this at least suggests his recovery is moving along relatively well. Hertl appeared in 17 games for the Sharks before the injury and registered four goals and nine points.
Snapshots: Oilers, NHL Debuts, Blackhawks, Laine
The last time the Oilers beat the Blues in St. Louis, Nikolai Khabibulin made 43 saves and the Oilers won 3-0. The Oilers then-top line of Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jordan Eberle combined for eight points. That was in March of 2013.
Since then, the Oilers have lost four straight in St. Louis by a combined score of 17-8. But last night, the Oilers came back twice from 1-0 and 2-1 deficits to win 3-2 in overtime. The Oilers moved Nugent-Hopkins, normally a center, to the right wing on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Patrick Maroon, and were rewarded with the tying and winning goal from them. The St. Louis-native Maroon tipped in a shot in the third period, leading to a feel-good moment after the game when he was asked about his son, who lives in St. Louis, cheering him on.
Nugent-Hopkins was set up by Connor McDavid in overtime and the Oilers got the victory. TSN’s Ryan Rishaug appeared on Edmonton radio on Tuesday morning and said this about the win: “to be down multiple times to that team in a building where they never win… that’s definitely a ‘big boy’ win. They didn’t come by that one easily.”
McDavid and Draisaitl now have a combined 70 points this season, the highest of any duo in the NHL. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin are second with 68 points.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning have dealt with quite a few injuries this season, but out of injury springs opportunity. Jonathan Drouin has stepped up lately, and now there’s opportunity for Tanner Richard to appear in his first NHL game. Richard was initially supposed to make his NHL debut on Saturday night, but his plane was delayed in New York, which lead to him missing his connecting flight to Edmonton. With no chance of making it to Alberta for game time, Ricard was sent back to Syracuse. Richard told Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times that he was “devastated” to miss the game, but had an inkling that he could be recalled for Tuesday. When asked what he expects to bring to the Lightning lineup, Richard said “I’m pretty hated by most teams in the AHL, so that tells me I’m doing an alright job being a little rat.” Richard will play with Brayden Point and J.T. Brown on the fourth line.
- Also making his NHL debut tonight is Pat Cannone. The 30-year-old center has played 377 games in the AHL, notching 222 points. As Michael Russo put it, the debut will be one for the aged. Cannone has 16 points in 28 games for the Iowa Wild so far this season. Wild coach Bruce Boudreau said “Hey listen, I was in the minors so long, anytime you can bring up a young man to give him a shot at the NHL, I think it’s great.”
- According to Mark Lazerus, Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford is taking part in the team’s morning skate. We reported yesterday that Crawford could start as soon as Friday, which would be under three weeks since his appendectomy. Coach Joel Quenneville said he would like to see Crawford take part in a full practice before returning. While a morning skate is not as intense as a regular practice, it’s still a good step in the road back for Crawford.
- Notably absent from Chicago’s morning skate is center Artem Anisimov. Anisimov missed the Blackhawks previous game, and it’s not known if he will be in the lineup tonight versus the Senators. So far this season, he has 27 points in 34 games, which puts him on pace to easily surpass his previous career high of 42 which he set last season.
- After his gorgeous goal on Sunday night versus the Avalanche, where he one-timed a Mark Scheifele pass on a two-on-one, Patrik Laine told a Finnish newspaper that “from a chance like that, I will score 99 times out of 100. The stick will break once.” Laine has 18 goals and 29 points, one behind Scheifele for the Jets’ lead, and five points clear of Auston Matthews for the rookie scoring lead.
Snapshots: Crawford, Tavares, Lucic
The Chicago Blackhawks could be getting a nice early Christmas gift on Friday night.
Despite having an appendectomy just two weeks ago, Corey Crawford has progressed enough in his recovery that he may start on Friday night against the Colorado Avalanche. Coach Joel Quenneville told Chris Hine that he would like to see Crawford get in a full practice before returning to the lineup.
The Blackhawks are off on Monday after playing back-to-back on the weekend, however Crawford will skate on his own. Backup Scott Darling has played the majority of games since Crawford has been out, including both games over the weekend. Darling is 6-2-1 since taking over from Crawford, which includes his current five-game winning streak.
- Glen Schiller and Jamie McLennan on TSN’s That’s Hockey 2Nite discussed if there is any reason why John Tavares would want to re-sign with the Islanders. The Islanders have been “a mess” this year, following up a 100-point season with a 74-point pace. With the Metropolitan Division being the best division in hockey this year, there’s essentially no way the Islanders can climb back into the playoff picture without a 15-game winning streak. McLennan points to the free agency departure of Kyle Okposo, who had great chemistry with Tavares, and the struggles of his replacement, Andrew Ladd. Both players signed for similar contracts, but the Islanders chose the older player with no history with their superstar over the younger, right-handed player with years of success on Tavares’ wing. Tavares, McLennan argues, must be wondering who he would play with consistently and could look forward to playing with years from now if he signed an eight-year contract.
- Over at OilersNation, Jonathan Willis wonders why the Oilers have not tried separating Milan Lucic and Connor McDavid to boost McDavid’s scoring. While he’s still leading the NHL in scoring by two points with 39 points in 33 games, he has just one even-strength assist in his last eight games. Lucic has just one goal in nine games this month. Despite Lucic’s struggles, the only changes made on the top line have been on the right side. Jesse Puljujärvi, Drake Caggiula, Jordan Eberle, Tyler Pitlick, and Leon Draisaitl have all had time with Lucic and McDavid, with varying degrees of success. Willis suggests moving Lucic to play with Draisaitl on the second line and bumping one of Benoit Pouliot or Patrick Maroon up to the top line; Willis points to chemistry between Draisaitl and Lucic and the dramatically better scoring numbers of when playing with McDavid as evidence of the merit of his suggestion.
Notable Major Junior Trades From Recent History
We reported yesterday that Pierre-Luc Dubois, the 2016 third-overall pick, is about to be traded from the Cape Breton Screaming Eagles to Blainville-Boisbriand Armada when the QMJHL trading period opens on December 18.
While the Screaming Eagles’ return on Dubois won’t be known until that date when the trade goes through, let’s take a look at the most recent top-five picks to be traded in junior:
John Tavares – Tavares was the first player to be granted exceptional status by the OHL; in fact, the rule was colloquially known as the John Tavares Rule for years afterward. Tavares is a little different from the rest of the players on this list, in that he was traded during his draft year, as opposed to after. On January 8, 2009, the Oshawa Generals (who will appear a few more times in this list) traded Tavares, future NHL defenseman Michael Del Zotto, and goaltender Daryl Borden to the London Knights for winger Christian Thomas, defenseman Scott Valentine, goaltender Michael Zador, and six draft picks. Tavares and Del Zotto were rentals who went on to play in the NHL the following seasons, while Borden played three games with the Knights before ending up in senior hockey. Thomas scored 246 points in 212 games with the Generals before turning pro. He’s appeared in 27 NHL games with three points to his name, and 241 AHL games with 125 points. He’s currently a member of the Hershey Bears. Valentine played out his uneventful CHL career in Oshawa and then bounced around North American pro leagues before heading to Europe. Zador is now retired.
Brayden Schenn – The younger Schenn brother was traded while he was playing for Canada at the 2011 World Juniors. The Los Angeles Kings 2009 fifth-overall pick was traded from the Brandon Wheat Kings to the Saskatoon Blades, who were gearing up for a playoff run. Schenn had played just two games that season prior to the WJC due to injury. Schenn was fantastic for the Blades, scoring 53 points in 27 games and another 11 points in 10 playoff games. The Wheat Kings received four draft picks (two first round picks) and two 15-year-old prospects, Tim McGauley and Ayrton Nikkel. Nikkel is now playing Canadian University hockey, while McGauley was actually a member of the Wheat Kings until last year; he’s now on the AHL Hershey Bears roster.
Leon Draisaitl – The Oilers selected Draisaitl third overall in 2014 with high expectations for “The German Gretzky.” Draisaitl had earned that nickname while playing German junior where he scored a ridiculous 192 points in 29 games. He then came to the WHL, where he scored 163 points 128 games before being drafted. With only two actual NHL centers (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Boyd Gordon) on the roster, Draisaitl made the Oilers out of training camp despite not showing he was ready. He played 37 games with the Oilers, scoring just 2 goals and 9 points before Oilers GM Craig MacTavish orchestrated a trade of Draisaitl’s rights in the WHL. The Memorial Cup-bound Kelowna Rockets acquired Draisaitl from the Prince Albert Raiders for forward Kris Schmidli, defenceman Dalton Yorke and three draft picks. Neither player did much for the Raiders, while Draisaitl scored 53 points in 32 games for the Rockets and was named the MVP of the Memorial Cup, which the Rockets lost to the aforementioned Oshawa Generals in overtime.
Michael Dal Colle – The Islanders’ fifth-overall pick in 2014, Dal Colle had three productive seasons in Oshawa before struggling in his second season, post-draft. Dal Colle was not picked by Canada for the World Juniors and fought with injuries. He had 25 points in 30 games before the Generals traded him on New Years’ Day 2016. The Kingston Frontenacs traded Robbie Burt, a first round pick, two seconds, and two thirds for the Generals captain Dal Colle. The ’99 born Burt has just 12 points in 56 games, and is not ranked by Central Scouting for the upcoming draft. Dal Colle turned it on in Kingston, scoring 55 points in 30 games and is now playing in the AHL, where he has 11 points in 24 games.
Early Returns On Summer Blockbusters
Typically, free agency items dominate hockey headlines in the latter days of June. However, the events of June 29th changed that dynamic in the 2016 offseason. First, the marquee name available in free agency, Steven Stamkos, agreed to remain with the Tampa Bay Lightning, inking an eight-year extension with the team and effectively ruining the offseason plans of several other NHL clubs. Second, a pair of rare, player-for-player blockbuster trades were completed, shocking all who follow and cover the league.
Desperately searching to upgrade the team’s blue line, Edmonton GM Peter Chiarelli agreed to ship top-line left wing Taylor Hall to New Jersey for Swedish defenseman Adam Larsson. Not long after that deal was announced, the Nashville Predators dealt team captain and four-time Norris Trophy finalist Shea Weber to Montreal for the electric P.K. Subban.
While it’s too early to make any definitive judgments as to which teams may have come out ahead in their respective exchanges, it is possible to analyze the early returns and see how much each club has benefited from the transactions.
Montreal – While there is no question P.K. Subban is a supremely skilled player, as the 2015-16 season played out it appeared as if head coach Michel Therrien and GM Marc Bergevin had grown weary of the defender’s high-risk, high-reward playing style. In Weber they get a veteran blue liner who boasts the league’s hardest shot and one who has long been a stalwart for Team Canada in numerous international events. Weber has also had a productive start to his Habs career, with eight goals and 18 points through 27 games.
Nashville – The team may have lost the longtime face of their franchise but they did add a dynamic talent who is four years Weber’s junior and has perhaps a more favorable contractual situation. While Subban’s cap hit is more than $1M higher annually through the 2021-22 campaign, his contract expires four years earlier than Weber’s and does not come with the likelihood of a cap recapture penalty. Subban is slowly growing more comfortable in his new home and has produced nearly identical numbers to his counterpart, tallying seven goals and 17 points through 26 contests.
Verdict – With Montreal currently sitting in the top spot in the Eastern Conference it’s hard to argue the trade hasn’t paid off exactly as Bergevin hoped. Weber plays a more conservative style of hockey which Therrien clearly prefers and he is still an impact player at both ends of the ice. On the flip side Subban gives the Nashville market a huge personality and a bankable star. He has quickly endeared himself to the Predators fans off the ice and is still producing on the ice. This deal has worked out for both clubs about as well as could have been hoped.
New Jersey – After ranking dead last in goals scored in 2015-16, the Devils desperately needed an infusion of skill and that’s exactly what they got in Hall. In 19 games this season, Hall is averaging better than a point-per-game for his new team and gives the Devils a legitimate, goal-scoring threat they haven’t had since Zach Parise resided in Jersey.
Edmonton – Larsson doesn’t contribute much in the offensive end of the ice – just six points in 30 contests this season – but has at least provided steady play on the back end for Edmonton. Chiarelli perhaps could have pursued a more dynamic player to address his team’s dire need on the blue line but Larsson came with the cost-certainty that RFA options like Mathew Dumba and Jacob Trouba did not. The Oilers will soon have to consider extensions for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl – neither of which will come cheap – and getting Larsson in the midst of a long-term deal with a manageable cap hit carries additional value.
Verdict – Hall is clearly the better and more valuable player, both today and into the future. But to Chiarelli’s credit, he knew his team needed to improve on the back end and was willing to lose the trade to make his team better. It’s probable the Oilers GM simply was not content maintaining the status quo and made the best deal available to upgrade the blue line. With the Oilers at the top of the Pacific Division standings, Chiarelli is likely pleased with how this deal has worked out for Edmonton.
Connor McDavid’s Next Contract
He may be eight months away from being able to sign it, and 20 months before it takes effect, but Connor McDavid‘s second contract is already a topic of conversation in the hockey world.
Despite being only 19-years-old and 55 games into his NHL career, McDavid is already a top-five player in the NHL. Of course, he’s scored 60 points in those 55 games, and is currently sitting tied for second in NHL scoring. He’s also the youngest captain in NHL history and the unquestioned face of the Oilers franchise.
McDavid is currently in the second year of his three-year entry-level contract. Including bonuses, McDavid can make $3.775MM per season. He’s eligible to negotiate and sign a contract extension on July 1, 2017. The longest term possible is eight years, something that’s a given for the Oilers but perhaps a point of worry for the McDavid camp. On Tuesday night’s Insider Trading, TSN and ESPN insider Pierre Lebrun floated the idea that the potential lockout in 2020 or 2022 could affect the player agent’s willingness to sign through that. He followed that up on Wednesday morning on TSN radio in Vancouver, pointing to the past CBA’s effects on player contracts. In 2005, there was a 24% salary rollback to all players; in 2013 they added cap recapture penalties to so-called “cheat deals” like Shea Weber‘s. While Lebrun isn’t saying McDavid doesn’t want to sign an eight-year extension in Edmonton, he does point out the possibility of a four-year deal because “there’s some concern that when the CBA ends, maybe they need to protect themselves because the rules may change on existing contracts.”
Numbers-wise, McDavid is a very likely candidate to become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Chris Johnston discussed McDavid on Tuesday night’s Sportsnet Hockey Central, opining that he “doesn’t see any” situation where McDavid doesn’t become the highest-paid player in the NHL. Currently, Blackhawks forwards Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane‘s $10.5MM cap hits are the highest in the NHL. Kings captain Anze Kopitar is the only other player making $10MM or more.
Of course, the Oilers could luck out if McDavid is as superstitious as the previous “next one” Sidney Crosby. Following his standard entry-level contract, Crosby has signed two separate contracts with an AAV of $8.7MM, which of course is the same as his number. Getting McDavid signed at under $10MM per season would be a major win for the Oilers and allow them to build a stronger team around him. Both sides can look no further than the Blackhawks struggles to keep their team together with Toews and Kane accounting for a combined $21MM against the cap.
Including LTIR-relief from former captain Andrew Ference (career-ending hip surgery), the Oilers are around $5MM below the cap. Things will change in the summer, when Leon Draisaitl is an RFA. Look for depth defenseman Mark Fayne to bought out or traded with salary retained to clear most of his $3.625MM cap hit, and perhaps a trade involving a bigger salaried player. McDavid and Darnell Nurse finish their entry-level contracts in 2018, and then Jesse Puljujärvi in 2019 (presuming he stays in the NHL this year and doesn’t slide.
While negotiations cannot begin until July, Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli and his management team are already having internal discussions about the contract, and so are McDavid’s agents, Jeff Jackson and Bobby Orr. Expect a similar timeline to fellow exceptional status recipient and first-overall pick Aaron Ekblad signing his extension with Florida; the two sides agreed in principle to a new deal early in the morning of July 1st.
Johnston was dead-on when he called extending McDavid the “biggest decision the Oilers are going to have for the next decade.”